Chapter 5 1. The house price is not underestimated

Even the mayor of Shanghai, Han Zheng, said, "Shanghai housing prices are indeed too high now." In 2009, the average growth rate of commercial housing in Shanghai exceeded 40%. Since 2010, when the central government implemented a heavy-handed regulation on housing prices, the housing prices in Shanghai have remained stable and rising. According to data jointly provided by Youwei and Property Market Review Network: From August 2nd to August 8th, 2010, during this week, the transaction area of ​​commercial housing in Shanghai was 231,000 square meters, a decrease of 4% compared with the previous week. The average transaction price was 19,188 yuan/square meter, an increase of 4% from the previous week; the city’s average commercial residential transaction price reached 23,242 yuan/square meter, an increase of 10% from the previous week. s level.

This is the current situation of housing prices in Shanghai. There is no most expensive, only more expensive. It is also appropriate to describe the real estate market as "no light on the head"."Qintou" (qindou) in Shanghai dialect means "heaviness, weight", and is often used together with the negative word "wu". "No light head" means not knowing the weight.For example: "Yi is crazy, gossip is not light at all (he is crazy, he doesn't know the importance of what he says)." ("Hui Dictionary") The housing prices in Shanghai are really insignificant, because it "has deviated from the income of ordinary people, and has deviated from the proportional relationship of some other digital growth in society".Han Zheng believes that the price is too high and the increase is too fast, which is not conducive to attracting young people such as college students and graduate students to stay; it is not conducive to improving the living conditions of ordinary working-class and poor people; it is not conducive to solving historical problems through the renovation of old areas; It is also not conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market itself.

Mayor Han looked at the disadvantages of rising house prices from the perspective of Shanghai’s urban development, but we all think about it from our own standpoint. With your current income, you can afford a house price of 20,000 to 30,000 per square meter. Does Jin's Shanghai live and work in peace and contentment? Henan guy Liu Jun (pseudonym) obviously figured it out, so he packed his luggage and boarded the K537 (Shanghai-Luoyang) train and went home.Waiting for him at the other end of the railroad track is his wife Li Mei (pseudonym), who returned home a month early for management.Shanghai used to be the "city of dreams" of this young couple born in the 1980s, and the house in Greater Shanghai has always been the "cinnabar mole" that they have been searching for for nearly five years but have never been able to find.

In June 2005, Liu Jun, who graduated from the Department of Finance of Renmin University of China, was successfully hired by a public institution in Shanghai to work in futures trading. He was delighted for a while with a monthly salary of 5,000 yuan just after graduation. Li Mei received it. Having just graduated from university, it is obviously impractical to buy a house, and the cost of renting a house is also expensive.In order to save money, the two rented a "husband's house" on Yangzhou Road, Yangpu District. The attic on the top floor of the four-story building, the kitchen and bathroom are shared by three families, and the stairs are wooden ladders that "squeak" at any time. The monthly rent for a space of 8 square meters is 800 yuan.

"My girlfriend is also very considerate, and I have never complained about such a poor accommodation environment. My idea is to suffer for a while and save money to buy a house in the future." Liu Jun plans his blueprint for future life in this way. Get a salary increase, and then buy a house in Shanghai to start a family.A graduate from the finance department of a famous school, he is interested in Shanghai's leading position in the domestic financial field.After Shanghai was approved to build an international financial center, Liu Jun also hopes to seize this rare opportunity to realize his career dream.

"Not having a house is the most important reason why we have never been married." After seven years of dating, the two have not married for a long time. Liu Jun's original promise was "to get married as soon as we have a house."However, his girlfriend was getting older, and his family was pressing hard. At the beginning of 2010, the two got their marriage certificate in their hometown. Although the wife is quite considerate, the situation of having no house after marriage caused the young couple to have a lot of disputes, and the inconvenience of sharing the rent exacerbated the frequency of conflicts.

Seeing the rising housing prices in Shanghai, Liu Jun did the math. Based on the average price of 20,000 yuan, a 90-square-meter house would cost 1.8 million yuan. With a 20% down payment, the monthly payment would be more than 4,000 yuan. "According to my current salary level, I can barely afford the monthly payment, but what about the down payment of more than 300,000 yuan? My parents in my hometown can't count on it, and my savings are not enough." "This is not the way to go. It is too painful to live such a life after marriage," Liu Jun said resolutely, "We decided to go back to our hometown to develop. A house of 5,000 yuan in Luoyang is very good. The money I have saved over the years is enough to pay the down payment. , With the work experience in Shanghai, you can also find a good job in Luoyang."

"Go back, life can be very nourishing. Shanghai, leave it to my son to work hard." One day in June 2010, Liu Jun left, leaving the city where he spent five years of youth.Just over a month after he left, the average price per square meter of housing prices in Shanghai broke through the 20,000 yuan mark, rising all the way. In line with international standards, out of track with the common people Some people may say that Shanghai is an international metropolis, and it is normal for housing prices to be a bit expensive.So, is Shanghai's housing price in line with "international standards" really normal?Let's compare it with New York and Tokyo in a moment.

A special report by "First Financial Daily" at the end of 2009 said: "If we only compare the absolute value of house prices, the price gap between Shanghai, New York and Tokyo is already very small. But if we combine house prices with local income levels In comparison, the housing price-to-income ratio in Shanghai has shown a trend that is much higher than that in New York and Tokyo." In the third quarter of 2009, the median price of apartments in Manhattan, New York was US$1.01 million, and the average price was US$1.58 million, or about 10.8 million yuan.Converted to a unit price, it is equivalent to more than 80,000 yuan per square meter.

According to data from ESRI, an American geographic data provider, the average household income in New York City in 2009 was nearly $75,000, and after deducting one-third of taxes and fees, that leaves about $50,000 a year.Calculated in this way, assuming that all household income is used to buy a house, with the annual income of an American family, it is possible to buy a house in Manhattan in about 20 years. If you don’t buy a house in Manhattan, you can buy a house in Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx or Staten Island. The same area, the price will drop by more than half.And these areas have convenient bus systems and subways, generally within an hour to reach Manhattan.The average house price of an apartment in the New York-Wayne-White Plains metropolitan area is close to 300,000 US dollars, equivalent to more than 2 million yuan.If all family income is used to buy a house, local residents can buy a house in about 6 years.

According to data from the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Human Resources and Social Security and the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics, the average salary of employees in the city in 2008 was 39,502 yuan.If calculated based on the income of two people in a family, the annual family income is about RMB 80,000.So, if you want to buy a 100-square-meter apartment in the downtown area of ​​Shanghai, it will take at least 50 years if the average price in the city center is 40,000 yuan per square meter, even if all household income is used to buy a house. If the average annual income of Shanghai is used to buy a house in an urban area outside the city center (that is, between the so-called inner ring and middle ring), it will take at least 25 years if the new house price is 20,000 yuan per square meter and the area is 100 square meters.For example, if the outer ring area is 10,000 yuan per square meter and 100 square meters, it will take at least 12 years for a family to have an average annual income of 80,000 yuan. It is also an international metropolis, and it is also the most expensive city center to buy a house. New Yorkers have to struggle for 20 years, while Shanghainese have to struggle for at least 50 years.No wonder some people lament that the era of "getting rich through labor" is long gone. If you don't have a golden key in your mouth, or have good luck, if you want to go through normal channels and normal efforts, you have to go for a set in the center of Shanghai. It took half a century to build a 100-square-meter house—by that time, the house was there, but the people were gone. Shanghai's housing prices have reached an outrageous level.Tokyo is known as "the most expensive city on earth". The housing prices there are indeed expensive, but if you compare it with Shanghai, you will find that Tokyo is still livable. Wang Dong, a Shanghai native who has worked hard in Tokyo for ten years, has the deepest understanding of housing prices in the two places. According to a survey by the Japan Life Research Institute, 91.5% of young people in Tokyo are renting houses to get married.It's not that they don't want to buy a house, but that they can't afford a wedding house with their own wages, and of course they don't want to be house slaves. Wang Dong, who graduated from Waseda University in Japan, has worked in the current company for 6 years.The salary has risen from the initial 200,000 yen/month (about 15,000 yuan) to 320,000 yen/month (about 23,000 yuan).Compared with his peers in China, he is already a "senior white-collar worker".But in Tokyo, this amount of money is only enough to support the family, and it has not entered the ranks of "well-off".Therefore, even though he has worked hard for 10 years, Wang Dong only saved more than 4 million yen (about 300,000 yuan). Wang Dong's wife is his college classmate, Japanese girl Ayako.Wang Dong felt lucky that he didn't receive any "marriage conditions" such as "I don't even have a house, so why marry my daughter" like the mother-in-law in Shanghai.Ayako's parents said: "Work hard, work hard, and try to buy your own house at the age of 35." 35 years old is the average age for Japanese people to buy a house for the first time. For their marriage, Wang Dong bought a new house in Edogawa District, Tokyo (the location is equivalent to Zhabei District in Shanghai) in March 2009, on the fifth floor of a single 12-story apartment building. , Standing on the balcony, you can see the fireworks that are set off every night in Tokyo Disneyland. This new house with three bedrooms and one living room cost Wang Dong 45 million yen (about 3.5 million yuan). According to the introduction of the real estate company, the walls of the house are made of a new type of building material called "air wall". The "air wall" not only keeps warm and insulated, but also has the function of regulating indoor humidity.When the indoor humidity is not up to standard, it will absorb the outdoor moisture and try to maintain the constant indoor humidity throughout the year. House sales in Japan are calculated based on the usable area.Wang Dong's house is exactly 100 square meters. If the house is sold according to the construction area in China, it should be 130 square meters.In other words, the price per square meter is about 350,000 yen (about 26,000 yuan). At the same time, the new houses sold in Japan are all well-decorated and equipped with basic equipment, such as cabinets, bathroom equipment and closets. Buyers can "check in with their bags."The house that Wang Dong bought cost at least 300,000 yuan (about 4 million yen) for decoration if calculated according to Shanghai’s decoration standards.That is to say, Wang Dong spent 45 million yen to buy a 130-square-meter house. In fact, he had already saved 300,000 yuan in decoration costs, and the actual purchase price was only 41 million yen (about 3.15 million yuan). The actual selling price per square meter is only RMB 23,000. In addition, the absolute quality guarantee period for Japanese home buyers is 20 years.In the past 20 years, if there are cracks, inclinations, leakage and other construction quality problems in the house, the real estate developer must repair it free of charge and make corresponding compensation. Not long ago, Wang Dong went to Shanghai on a business trip and went around Zhabei District. He found that the total price of a 130-square-meter second-hand house there was as high as 4 million yuan, more expensive than his new residence in Tokyo.And the new house he bought in Tokyo half a year ago is estimated to have fallen to 40 million yen.Because the price of second-hand housing in Japan is slightly lower than that of new housing. At present, Wang Dong has accepted the transfer from the company's personnel department, and plans to bring Ayako to work in Shanghai next year.But after many comparisons, he also decided not to give up the house in Tokyo, nor to buy a house in Shanghai.The reason is simple: the housing prices in Shanghai are incomprehensible.Because the average income in Tokyo is 8 times higher than that in Shanghai, even if the housing prices in Shanghai are currently the same as those in Tokyo, if combined with the income level, the housing prices in Shanghai are actually 8 times more expensive than in Tokyo. In Shanghai, high housing prices, which are becoming more and more commonplace, are actually stepping into a vicious circle that deviates from the lives of ordinary people.And some people were trapped in this vicious circle and paid the price of their lives. At the end of November 2009, the news of the suicide of Yang Yuanyuan, a poor female graduate student at Shanghai Maritime University, caused a sensation. Yang Yuanyuan was born in Yichang, Hubei. His father died of illness when he was 6 years old, and his younger brother was not yet four years old.Over the years, the mother has worked hard to bring up the siblings alone. In 1998, Yang Yuanyuan was admitted to the Department of Economics of Wuhan University, and two years later his younger brother was also admitted to the Department of Environmental Science of Wuhan University. Soon after my younger brother was admitted to university, the factory where my mother worked was facing relocation, and I had to buy a house where the new factory was located at my own expense.But at that time, Yang Yuanyuan hadn't collected enough tuition fees, and his younger brother was studying on loan, so his family couldn't afford to buy a house.Losing her place of residence, her mother had to live with Yang Yuanyuan at Wuhan University.The leaders of the School of Economics and Management of Wuhan University were considerate of her family's special situation, took care of her, and asked her to postpone the tuition payment.In the days that followed, Yang Yuanyuan completed his studies through a work-study program, and his younger brother was also recommended to enter Peking University to study for a Ph.D. After graduating from university, Yang Yuanyuan found several jobs in Wuhan, gradually paid off her debts, and had a little savings. At this time, she had the idea of ​​continuing to study, and was admitted to the Shanghai Maritime University Law School as a public-funded graduate student in maritime law. . At this time, Yang Yuanyuan's mother was approaching her sixtieth birthday and needed to be taken care of. She took her mother on the road of studying again.The Lingang Campus of Maritime University is located in a remote area, and it is not easy to rent a house. Yang Yuanyuan also has no extra money to rent a house. She once again had the idea of ​​letting her mother stay in the extra dormitory beds of the school.She applied to the school many times, explained the situation, and asked the school to allow her mother to live temporarily, but it was unsuccessful. For more than two months, Yang Yuanyuan and his mother shared a small bed in the dormitory.But the school did not arrange accommodation for her mother in the end, requiring her to rent a room outside the school and "forbidding her mother to enter the dormitory again." "The house search failed. Yang Yuanyuan didn't close his eyes for 5 days and 5 nights, and his mental breakdown was complete. That's why the tragedy happened on the morning of November 26." Yang Yuanyuan's family said that they would not blame the school for the death of their relatives, but the school is also responsible.They believed that Yang Yuanyuan committed suicide because he couldn't think about it first, but the bad attitude of the school dormitory staff towards Yang Yuanyuan and his mother played a catalytic role. The huge Shanghai Bund is actually unable to find a shelter for the old mother who has worked half her life. This kind of despair is probably the last straw that crushes Yang Yuanyuan. Now that life is gone, we have no intention of finding out who is right and who is wrong.A netizen commented on this incident: "If the Shanghai Municipal Government could implement the affordable housing policy as soon as possible, then Yang Yuanyuan's tragedy might not have happened." Is it true? In fact, Shanghai's economically affordable housing, which has high hopes, is not an antidote to high housing prices, to some extent, it is even poison. From December 11, 2009, the pilot work of applying for affordable housing in Shanghai was officially launched in Xuhui and Minhang districts.However, Shanghai's affordable housing is facing many embarrassments in the implementation process. First of all, some people question how many families can affordable housing cover?According to the "Trial Measures for the Administration of Economically Affordable Housing in Shanghai", households applying for affordable housing need to have Shanghai household registration for more than 5 years, the per capita housing area is less than 15 square meters, the per capita monthly disposable income of the family is less than 2,300 yuan, and the per capita property is less than 2,000 yuan. 70,000 yuan or less and other conditions.In order to ensure the quality of the review of the economic status of the applicants, Shanghai has also set up a resident economic status verification center, and takes the verification of household registration and housing conditions as the annual key work of each sub-district. After the almost harsh audit results came out, according to the latest data released by the Shanghai Municipal Housing Security Bureau, the number of eligible households in Xuhui and Minhang districts was 2,146.From the perspective of market participants, as the two districts with the largest populations among the 13 central urban areas in Shanghai, this number is undoubtedly a bit small. "First Financial Daily" reported in April 2010 that this is not the final result. With the completion of these two links, there are still applicant families who will be "screened out" one after another.It is reported that there are 13 households that have not passed the verification of the number of years of household registration; and a total of 134 households that have not passed the verification of housing area.The next step is to enter the economic status check. "A total of nearly 200 households have been handed in information. But as of now, the first batch of lists that have been officially verified and issued are only 6 households." A relevant staff member of a street in Xuhui District said.The link of "passing the verification" referred to in his mouth refers to the economic status checking work carried out by the Shanghai Economic Status Checking Center. "Next, these six households will continue to be reviewed and screened by relevant departments." On the supply side, Shanghai previously announced a plan to start construction of 300,000 sets of affordable housing within three years. However, Chen Jie, executive director of the Housing Policy Research Center of Fudan University, believes that the source of the problem lies in the fact that most of the groups identified by the government as the targets of affordable housing supply do not have the affordability to buy a house. According to Chen Jie, according to the Shanghai Statistical Yearbook, the average annual disposable income of so-called low- and middle-income families, which account for 40% of the city, is only 52,600 yuan.Calculated at 350,000 yuan for a set of affordable housing, even for a family with a bank loan qualification of 20% down payment, the house price-to-income ratio is still as high as 7 times, which has reached the highest affordability range. Taking Minhang District as an example, according to the pricing plan, the price of affordable housing in this district will be based on the average sales price of ordinary commercial housing around the community in the last three months, and will be sold at a price of 40% to 35%.At present, the housing prices of surrounding apartments are around 10,000 yuan. Taking a set of affordable housing with an area of ​​about 60 square meters as an example, if the calculation is based on a 60% to 3.5% discount, then it is about 6,500 yuan/m2, and the total price is about 400,000 yuan. You only need to pay a down payment of about 100,000 yuan to move in. Although the threshold of 100,000 yuan is very low, for families with "average monthly disposable income below 2,300 yuan" who meet the application requirements, the total price of 400,000 yuan is still equivalent to about 15 times the annual household income.This is not only more than the usual 3-6 times the "house price-to-income ratio" in the world, but also more than double the standard of "6.5 years of income to buy a house" proposed by Chongqing. Therefore, the current application program for affordable housing is undoubtedly caught in the dilemma of "can't afford it, and can't afford it".Some bankers analyzed that based on a total loan price of 400,000 yuan and a loan of 300,000 yuan, even with the minimum provident fund loan interest rate of 3.88%, the monthly mortgage repayment is 1,411 yuan, which is still more than half of the applicant’s monthly household income of 2,300 yuan. Does not meet loan requirements.In addition, the down payment of 100,000 yuan is also inconsistent with the previously stipulated "disposable property of less than 70,000 yuan". Therefore, after getting the affordable housing, Lao Tang felt very complicated.Lao Tang and his wife live in a small house less than 15 square meters in a street in Xuhui District, Shanghai.After nearly a year of review and lottery, the old couple got a set of affordable housing of more than 40 square meters in Xinkaijiayuan as they wished.However, they then worry about the money to buy affordable housing. Lao Tang's family had no savings, and the staff in the street suggested that the old couple sell the old house to make up the down payment, but they are retired and old, the provident fund has stopped, and the bank refuses to lend.How to raise money is not just a problem faced by Laotang's family.Analysts once worried that "the qualified cannot afford it" is becoming a reality. "Affordable housing must first start with protecting the lowest income and the most disadvantaged groups. It is just and fair. Even the most needy people have not been helped, so it is possible to talk about helping the majority of people? Is it reasonable? ?” Chen Jie, executive director of the Housing Policy Research Center of Fudan University, believes that what Shanghai needs most is to establish a combination mechanism of low-rent housing, public rental housing, and rent subsidies. Chen Jie, in an exclusive interview with Radio Television Hong Kong on December 17, 2009, stated more clearly: Shanghai’s development of affordable housing is turning back history.His main points are as follows: ⑴. The more applicable houses, the higher the house price in Shanghai.The reason is simple. The land for affordable housing has crowded out the land for commercial housing, reducing the supply of the latter.However, the object of affordable housing supply is "in principle" different from commercial residential housing, and will not reduce the demand for the latter.Prices naturally rise.Even if the benefits of some low-income families are increased, it is at the expense of the "sandwich layer", the middle class, which pays a heavy price. ⑵. The core of affordable housing is the dual-track price system. Is there any successful precedent for the dual-track price system in ancient and modern times?The price of affordable housing is less than half that of surrounding commercial housing, with a price difference of 5,000-7,000 yuan per square meter, and each housing can be arbitraged 300,000-400,000 yuan. Even with limited property rights (7:3 sharing between individuals and the government), buyers can also arbitrage large Partly, with such a big wallet, who can get it and who can't get it, it's not the people who engage in regulation.There is a monetary economy on one side, and administrative control on the other. Power has a price, and "rent-seeking space" is artificially created.The cost of identification and control is very high. Even if rent-seeking can be controlled, the cost of identification invested by the government every year is a waste of social resources, and the government will make trouble for itself.And in fact, in the current Chinese society, as long as there is an "interest gap", the people who benefit the most must not be ordinary people, but people in the system such as civil servants are given priority. It is too easy for these people to issue low-income certificates, even if false certificates are found out. , can there be any punishment? ⑶. The basis of the double-track price system for affordable housing is that there is an income access line, which is then divided into two.This line is very embarrassing, it is impossible to be objective and scientific, and the space is too vague.If you set a low price, you are not qualified to afford it; if you are qualified, you cannot afford it, and you cannot sell affordable housing; if you set a high price, you cannot afford it.The per capita annual income in Shanghai is 27,600 yuan, which is actually higher than the average income in Shanghai. It is possible that half of the people can live in affordable housing.If you don't have enough points, you can only do lottery, which is actually a ridiculous thing.Isn’t it absurd that a person with a per capita annual income of 27,599 yuan has the same opportunities as a person with an income of 0 yuan?At any time, as long as the income is one yuan lower than the income threshold, there is a chance to win the jackpot, and if it is one yuan more, there is no chance, and you have to endure high market housing prices.Reward laziness and punish diligence. ⑷. Affordable housing deviates completely from the guideline that housing should be "living first".If even indemnificatory housing is required to have property rights and have investment attributes, why is it required that commercial housing can be "residence-oriented"?Everyone with the lowest income has the right and the opportunity to own their own housing. How can the middle income and the middle class rent a house with peace of mind? ⑸. Affordable housing seems to solve some problems in the short term, but in fact there will be endless troubles. The government will continue to build houses but it will never keep up with the new demand.Land in urban areas is increasingly in short supply, and there are fewer affordable houses to build. The price of commercial housing is higher, and the government's future guaranteed housing resources are exhausted.The loss of land transfer fee is huge, with 4 million square meters of affordable housing every year, the loss of land transfer fee is at least 16 billion, which can only solve 50,000 households, and these 50,000 houses have all settled down, and cannot form a rolling cycle.Does being poor now mean being poor forever? ⑹. Appropriate housing cannot solve the most urgent problem in housing security.There must be a priority in the allocation of limited financial resources. The lowest income families can't afford it. They can only use low-rent housing and rent subsidies. This should be the current focus.The housing problem of the "sandwich class" among the new immigrants is in fact more urgent than that of the old Shanghai residents with housing difficulties. The former is the hope of Shanghai's future development, and the latter at least has the hope of housing improvement through demolition. What the "sandwich layer" needs most is turnover and transitional housing support, and small-scale affordable housing cannot meet their future housing needs. In this chaos of affordable housing, there is also the scandal of "the planning land was encroached, and affordable housing turned into commercial housing".A developer revealed to a reporter from China Securities Journal, “Originally, the land used for affordable housing only needs to pay a land transfer fee of 200-300 yuan/square meter to convert the allocated land into land for commercial housing, and the housing use right certificate will be issued. It can be transformed from affordable housing to commercial housing with full property rights." The 1,500-mu land plot located on Gudai Road, Minhang District, Shanghai, of which more than 600 mu is the Gulong base and more than 880 mu is the Pingji base. It was originally used to build affordable housing for low-income residents in Shanghai, but in the end it was high-end commercial housing.This 1,500-acre land plot has never been publicly sold through bidding, auction and listing. The Shanghai government also stated that it will build economical housing in the central urban area.But it was pointed out by industry insiders that the show was too much. "Ordinary commercial housing in the central city is about 30,000 yuan/square meter. Even if the surrounding housing prices are 40% as a reference, it still needs 12,000 yuan/square meter." An expert who did not want to be named questioned whether this is still called affordable housing?Urban land has long been tight, and it is impossible to build a large number of affordable housing. Among the three affordable housing bases announced by Xuhui District not long ago, the Longhua plot is close to the inner ring road and rail transit line 3, which can be called a prime location, and the surrounding housing prices have already exceeded 20,000 yuan per square meter.According to the cost of land acquisition, the minimum floor price of the Longhua plot is 9,000 yuan/square meter. "Even if the floor price is 9,000 yuan per square meter, it is beyond the scope of affordable housing." A real estate agent said, "This affordable housing project may be converted into ordinary commercial housing for external sales." Shang said that rising land prices will seriously challenge the sustainability of affordable housing. In addition, in the "Implementation Opinions on the Development of Public Rental Housing (Draft for Comment)" issued by the Shanghai Municipal Housing Security and Housing Administration in June 2010, one of the qualifications for application is "Having permanent residence in the city, or holding The "Shanghai Residence Permit" and the continuous payment of social insurance funds have reached the specified number of years", which means that public rental housing has broken the household registration restriction.This seems to have given the vast number of foreign youths a ray of hope to gain a foothold in Greater Shanghai. Although in the view of the Shanghai government, this construction can firstly delay the intention of buying a house in the buying market, and secondly, it can solve certain renting problems.However, many opinions disagree. Xue Jianxiong, an analyst at Zhongfangxin, said that public rental housing may not be able to improve the situation of high rents. Public rental housing is linked to work units to solve the problem of renting housing for middle- and high-end talents, but they have just entered the society. College students and migrant workers who have just entered Shanghai and other big cities cannot enjoy it, and it is difficult to see the future direction. Since affordable housing is more like a castle in the air, we can only hope that the price of commercial housing can drop a little.House prices falling, is this possible in Shanghai?The answer is actually very simple, as long as someone buys it, the house will not worry about selling, and the price will not drop. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in August 2010, as of the end of June 2010, the area of ​​commercial housing for real estate development enterprises nationwide was 191.82 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%.Accordingly, some experts in the real estate market believe that this inventory is slightly lower than the 199.47 million square meters inventory at the end of 2009, which is a normal level.However, due to the impact of the new round of regulatory policies, the transaction volume of commercial housing in some cities has fallen sharply. With the further increase in supply in the second half of the year, it is expected that developers will face greater inventory pressure by the end of the year, and may actively reduce prices to digest inventory. Regarding the expert's prediction, the World Business Report commented: "Compared with some 'big mouths' who are active in the real estate market at present, they often announce that house prices will drop by half, this expert's point of view undoubtedly leaves a lot to be desired. There is plenty of room for maneuver. The decline in housing prices in the future is only based on "or". This word with classical Chinese color, translated into words that modern people can understand is "possible". This is a kind of prophecy that will never be wrong , but it is of no use to people who are waiting to buy a house with money.” At the same time, the analysis said, "The current decline in the sales of commercial housing is more due to the enthusiastic expectations of the buyers who are holding money for the decline in housing prices. However, how much realistic basis does this expectation have, but we cannot be too optimistic. It should be noted that there is a simple truth in the market. Although consumers always expect to buy products with lower prices, they are not monolithic. As long as the housing prices drop to their respective psychological prices, there will be bargain hunters entering the market, and the prices will soon be lowered. Lift it up again." Among these bargain-hunters, there are not only consumers who are planning to buy residential housing, but also a large number of investors or speculators who speculate in real estate.In fact, even if this group of people stay put, the mansion in Shanghai is still "the emperor's daughter will not worry about marrying". "Although the projects recently launched in Shanghai have been refurbished with discounts and promotions, free cars and free area, last week (August 2-August 8, 2010) the substantial transactions of four luxury residential projects have raised the average price of new house transactions in Shanghai last week. The price is even higher than the level before the new policy, hitting a new high in three months, reaching 23,242 yuan per square meter" ("China Securities Journal"). From 2007 to the present, the growth rate of commercial apartments below 90 square meters is 81%, while that of commercial apartments above 90 square meters has increased by 105%. house.It is also they who keep Shanghai's housing prices strong. According to the statistics of Shanghai Xinyi Housing, as of November 30, 2009, a total of 770 second-hand top luxury houses with a total transaction price of more than 10 million yuan were sold in Shanghai throughout the year. The transaction price was 49,000 yuan/square meter, the highest in history. Among the above-mentioned home buyers who purchased tens of millions of luxury houses, only 10% have Shanghai household registration.Among the house buyers in other provinces and cities, 72% are entrepreneurs aged 36 to 55, and another 27% of house buyers are under 30 years old.The number of non-Shanghai household buyers in mainland China reached 318, accounting for 39%, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan buyers accounted for 16%, and another 23% of home buyers were foreigners, and the specific source of another 10% was unknown. Although Guo Jingming, who has won the "richest man in the writer" for a second time, denies that the mansion he exposed is Tomson Yipin with an average price of 110,000 yuan per square meter, he also admits that he does have real estate in Shanghai, and there are more than one.Naturally, he is not the only celebrity who has purchased a mansion in Shanghai. According to reports from netizens, Tony Leung and his wife own three properties in Shanghai: in 2006, they bought the "Oriental Cambridge" unit located on Zhenning Road in Shanghai for nearly 3 million yuan; The Shanghai super luxury house "Washington World" purchased for 50 million yuan; Ren Xianqi bought a luxury house in "Oriental Cambridge" in Jing'an, Shanghai at a price of more than 11,000 yuan per square meter, with a total value of nearly 20 million; Lam Yilian in Pudong Zhangjiang Tomson Park set up property, a seven-story building, and she bought three units on the third to seventh floors; Ren Dahua bought a four-story villa in Shanghai five or six years ago, spending more than 1 million yuan Chen Xiaodong also secretly bought property in Shanghai. He bought a luxury house in Shanghai Shimao Riverside Garden for 5 million Hong Kong dollars. He chose a large apartment with four bedrooms and three living rooms. ; and Li Bingbing sold a luxury house in Lujiazui, Pudong in early 2010 for more than 14 million yuan... Anyone with a little knowledge of market economics knows that the relationship between supply and demand determines prices.Therefore, in the face of the demand for "Shanghai luxury houses" from all over the country and the world, no matter how tough the control measures are, it may be difficult to bring down the housing prices in Shanghai Beach easily.Just as Ye Xueping, deputy director of the Economics Institute of the Hubei Academy of Social Sciences, said, regulation is far from reaching policy goals.In response to the central bank's recent statement on the monetary policy in the second half of the year, Shanghai has eased the third and above housing loans, Ye Xueping said, "I feel that the effect has not been achieved, and the policy has loosened again." Qin Hong, deputy director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, analyzed that different cities and even different real estate properties have different performances in regulation, some may fall by 20%, and some may remain unchanged.It's hard to say exactly how much house prices have fallen in any one place.In the second half of the year, the real estate market will fluctuate in price, and there are few long-term house price price reduction factors. Although some experts believe that the price is already a bit outrageous, for investors, they will not really feel it because they rely on the accumulated funds and profits obtained before. House price pressure, but only from the investment environment to judge the overall property market. "That is to say, whether the price is high or low depends on the key people (investors) who control the rise and fall of the house price. They only care about the situation and don't care so much about the price." "Many developers are now reluctant to sell. The cash flow on hand is not a problem, so all you can see are discounts and promotions. Housing prices will not fall in the long run. Because of this factor, the long-term property market is still optimistic." If one day houses in Shanghai only have consumption attributes, that is, purely residential functions, but no investment attributes, then there may be a glimmer of hope for house prices to fall.But this assumption, you also know is nothingness.So, let the house price go up, can I not live anymore?