Chapter 24 Chapter 23 Dulles' "Oracle" Plan, Zhou Enlai's and Chiang Kai-shek's Basic Stands Surprisingly Unanimous in Opposition

The "Oracle" plan planned by Dulles was strongly opposed by Zhou Enlai and Chiang Kai-shek, who were surprisingly consistent in their basic positions. (Manila-Taipei-Washington, September 3, 1954-February 7, 1955) John Dulles has been to the beautiful city of Manila more than once. He feels that tropical rainforest plants, volcanic island landscapes, and brown-skinned residents have become indispensable elements of beauty in this Pacific island country.After World War II, when he came to Manila, which was razed to ruins by American artillery fire, he wondered why the beautiful and ancient Manila Hotel by the bay could miraculously survive the war; it is said that it was because General MacArthur was the owner of the hotel. director, and has a set of mysterious rooms on the top floor.When he came to Manila this time, what surprised him was why the yellow-skinned Chinese occupied such an important position in this island country; the Filipino sugar lords with the background of the rich American consortium were in charge of the political power on the island, while the Chinese families controlled the island. With advanced finance.In an inner circle of forty billion-dollar families, at least ten Chinese families are at the top.He has often been thinking about Chinese issues recently.Ever since President Eisenhower chose him as Secretary of State and placed him at the center of power in the White House, the communist-conscious Chinese on the mainland particularly confused and irritated him.

When the Communist Chinese bombarded Quemoy on September 3, Dulles was in a meeting in Manila.Representatives from the United States, Britain, France, the Philippines, New Zealand, Australia, Thailand, and Pakistan gathered in Manila to discuss and sign the Southeast Asia Collective Defense Treaty.Originally, he felt that it was a pity that Taiwan did not participate. Chiang Kai-shek of Taiwan was a staunch fighter against the Communist Party. Considering the need for the United Kingdom to participate in the signing of the contract, and the United Kingdom had already recognized the new mainland China in 1950, it was inconvenient to form a military alliance with the Taiwan authorities. On balance, most of the participating countries still advocate abandoning Taiwan and taking Britain. Therefore, this military alliance treaty aimed at anti-communism did not allow the Taiwan authorities to join.Of course Chiang Kai-shek was very displeased and had no choice but to do anything.

Dulles immediately asked the embassy in the Philippines to strengthen ties with the White House after receiving the news of the "93 bombardment of Quemoy".Both Washington and Taipei forwarded him reports on the Kinmen artillery battle.The Seventh Fleet also left Manila Bay and entered a standby position under the order of Admiral Stoup, commander of the Pacific Fleet.The White House also informed him that President Eisenhower was going to hold a national security meeting to discuss a definite decision, and hoped that he would rush back to Washington to attend.He himself felt that if time allowed before returning to China, he could fly to Taipei to meet Chiang Kai-shek to learn about the situation and listen to Chiang's opinions.According to American Bill's "Biography of Dulles", during the few days in Manila, Dulles spent "a considerable amount of time and thought" on researching the whole issue, and discussed this with Admiral Stoup, commander of the US Pacific Fleet. Discussions were held.

On September 8, just as the "Southeast Asia Collective Defense Treaty" was signed, he hurriedly set off for Taiwan.On September 9, Chiang Kai-shek met with him at the Yangmingshan Presidential Residence.Knowing that Chiang Kai-shek would be displeased with Taiwan being excluded from the Southeast Asia Collective Defense Treaty, he took the initiative to say: "The United States is trying to create a situation in which Southeast Asian countries can shoulder the responsibility if there is another war in the region. Own responsibility. The Southeast Asian Defense Treaty signed yesterday in Manila is the result of this effort. I hope you will not take this treaty too seriously. My public statements are often misunderstood, and I have heard that my statements have disturbed you. Today I want to assure you that the United States has no intention of abandoning the Chinese government under your leadership."

Chiang Kai-shek couldn't wait to raise the issue of the U.S.-Taiwan bilateral defense treaty, saying: "Since you took office as Secretary of State of the United States, you have achieved great success in the Far East. What is particularly commendable is; I have noticed that you refused to participate in the reconvened Geneva Conference; and Indochina After the split, you made the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization through the crisis and achieved brilliant results. However, at this point, I would also like to point out that the US policy as a whole has been hesitant and lacks initiative recently. If the US takes a decisive approach to Taiwan policy, I affirm that no non-communist country will advocate the admission of the Communist Party of China to the United Nations, or trusteeship of Taiwan. The situation in Taiwan will also be stabilized. The actual manifestation of this decisive policy is the signing of the proposed bilateral agreement between China and the United States. People from all walks of life I think your visit to Taiwan at this time proves that the U.S. government attaches great importance to Taiwan. However, if you leave Taiwan without signing a bilateral agreement on the security of East Asia, if you do not make a decision on the Sino-U.S. From the perspective of people of insight, the US Far East policy will suffer irreparable losses, and the effectiveness of the Southeast Asian Treaty Organization will also be in doubt. The US has signed bilateral agreements with Japan, its former enemy. The US and South Korea, the US and the Philippines also have With China, a wartime ally, the United States is reluctant to enter into such a primarily political and moral relationship, which is regrettable."

Chiang Kai-shek anxiously proposed that the Taiwan-U.S. bilateral agreement should be signed before Dulles left Taipei. He was already too impatient, and he did not care about the minimum diplomatic etiquette. Dulles' reaction to this was very indifferent, expressing his excuse to leave.He said: "Unfortunately, due to the shortness of time, I cannot discuss this matter with Your Excellency in detail. I will be leaving in five or ten minutes. I cannot help feeling that the validity of the treaty is being overestimated here. I remember In Manila, the Filipinos believe that they do not benefit as much as Taiwan. Taiwan has the 7th Fleet to coordinate its defense. Once it is attacked by the Chinese Communist Party, the US Navy and Air Force will immediately go into action. When I arrived in Taiwan, I got the impression that the treaty is considered to be helpful for security. , and countries with such treaties consider Taiwan to enjoy greater security."

Chiang Kai-shek had no choice but to say: "The current policy and attitude of the United States cannot be said to be wrong. Unfortunately, the United States has not been active and proactive in its actions. In my opinion, the US policy in Asia lacks a clear focus. Regarding this point, I hope The United States corrects it." The meeting between Dulles and Chiang Kai-shek ended in a hurry. Dulles only stayed in Taipei for five hours before leaving in a hurry.Before he boarded the plane at Taipei Songshan Airport, he got the news that the Communists had launched an even more violent bombardment of Kinmen.Dulles felt that after more than a year of preparations after the Korean armistice, the militant communists did not stop shouting on the radio and newspapers, they were going to actually seize Kinmen, Matsu and other islands and Taiwan.Just now General Chase, the head of the U.S. Advisory Group to Taiwan, told him: "Mao Zedong's troops assembled from Shanghai to Guangdong are enough to conquer the coastal islands within a few days; Becoming the third air power in the world and enjoying air superiority in the Taiwan Strait area, one day it will launch an attack on the coastal islands, and the time for the attack will not be delayed too late."

On September 12, as soon as Dulles arrived in Washington, he was notified to rush to the White House to attend the 214th meeting of the National Security Council.He had to make it to the meeting, albeit exhausted and still recovering from jet lag from a long air flight.President Eisenhower was waiting for him for a meeting.He secretly complained about giving the Chinese people a hard time. At this meeting, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Radford again stated the views of the military majority, arguing that while providing covert assistance to the Kuomintang, the United States Air Force could take action on these small islands and should be allowed to do so adequately Freedom to attack artillery positions, airfields and ships on the mainland.But without the use of US ground forces.

Both Ridgway and Secretary of Defense Wilson opposed American military involvement in the Outer Islands.Because these small islands do not have much military value, and intervention requires at least one division of US ground troops. Wilson was even more opposed to helping the KMT defend the outer islands, on the grounds that without the help of the United States, Taiwan would not be able to defend the outer islands, and in order to defend the outer islands, it would have to attack military targets on the mainland. Why does the United States not fight China in North Korea and Vietnam, but it has to compete with China for these inconspicuous small islands.Furthermore, the United States has no tradition of fighting limited, undeclared wars, and must obtain congressional approval before going to war.

Eisenhower suppressed the opinions of the military majority at the meeting, expressing his opposition to the United States taking too much responsibility around the world, and then defending there.The Republican president said: "Guys, if we were going to fight a general war, I would, frankly, rather fight the Soviet Union than China. As head of state, head of government, and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, my priority is the United States China’s global strategic deployment and the country’s fundamental interests, it does not want to get into a war with China in Asia for a few small islands, thus weakening the US’s power to compete with the Soviet Union in Europe and other parts of the world.”

After Eisenhower finished speaking, he turned his face to Dulles.This shows that it is Dulles' turn to speak, and I hope that Dulles will come up with something new, so that this kind of meeting of the top decision-making level in the United States will not make any progress, and it will stay in the military majority to intervene Outer islands and the president vetoed it inside the pattern. Eisenhower relied heavily on Dulles. Eisenhower realized that no matter how great a person is, he is personally limited and can only get things done with the help of thousands of other people.Eisenhower believed that the primary role of presidential leadership is to pick the right people for the right jobs and to work with them.What he wants is capable, proven staff, people who dare to think and do.Personal friendships were out of the question when picking his cabinet and White House staff, and Eisenhower didn't pick a single old friend.The first person Eisenhower considered for his cabinet was John Foster Dulles.He and Dulles had no contacts, but the two had worked together on the foreign policy points in the Republican platform.Although Eisenhower regretted some of Dulles' belligerent remarks, especially about the liberation of Communist satellites and his ideas of "massive retaliation," he admired Dulles as a man of vision and creativity.Eisenhower was also impressed by Dulles' profound knowledge of world affairs.Eisenhower once said to someone: "I know only one person who has been to more places in the world, talked to more people and knows more people than Dulles, and that person is me." Dulles then spoke, living up to the president's expectations, with a new proposal.Dulles said: "While I was in Taipei the day before yesterday, the Communists tested my sanity with their heaviest bombardment of Quemoy. I was flying over the Pacific Ocean thinking about these little islands that gave us headaches. If we Showing weakness to the Communists may eventually be forced to go to war with their opponents under even more unfavorable conditions, and the retreat of Chiang Kai-shek's Kuomintang from the outer islands will have disastrous effects in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines; on the other hand, Defense of the Outer Islands would involve the United States in a war with mainland China and would be condemned by the rest of the world except Syngman Rhee and Chiang Kai-shek, as well as by a portion of the American people." Therefore, Dulles proposed to submit the situation of the coastal islands to the UN Security Council, and the Security Council would make a resolution to maintain the status quo.If the U.S. government directly intervenes in the situation on the Outer Islands without going through Congress, it will be opposed domestically. If the U.S. government acts under the resolution of the United Nations, it will be able to obtain the consent of Congress or at least the leaders of the Congress.The U.S. government will have powers it does not have now. Dulles said: "When the Security Council discusses this proposal, if the Soviet Union vetoes this proposal, public opinion in the United States and its allies will become favorable to the United States; if the Soviet Union accepts this proposal, it will be a series of steps to stabilize the situation in the Far East. Let's start. We don't have to face the problem of losing the golden gate anymore. I think that Chiang Kai-shek of the Kuomintang may be unhappy with such a bill. Chiang Kai-shek should think about it. Passing this bill is better than being defeated by the Communist Party alone. many!" Dulles' proposal was a compromise solution in the face of the dilemma faced by the United States in the situation of coastal islands.Its crux is based on the premise that the status of Taiwan has not been determined, using the United Nations to achieve a ceasefire without involving the United States in the coastal islands; however, it itself reflects the contradictory nature of the US policy on coastal islands.Dulles thought that his proposal was brilliant, avoiding trouble and achieving his goal.However, this proposal essentially interferes in China's internal affairs, and the advocacy of "two Chinas" is doomed to encounter obstacles. Eisenhower expressed his full agreement with Dulles' proposal, and emphasized the need to win the support of public opinion in the United States and the world, and also asked the military to continue to maintain vigilance. After the 214th meeting of the National Security Council, Dulles, after intense activities, with the support of the United Kingdom, New Zealand agreed to come forward to introduce the bill in the Security Council. This plan was named "oracle". Dulles compared his idea to the oracle of God. The result was ironic. In early October, in order to appease the Taiwan authorities so that the United States' "oracle" plan could be successfully passed by the Security Council after being proposed by New Zealand, Eisenhower agreed in principle to conclude a mutual security and defense treaty with the Taiwan authorities. In mid-October, Dulles sent Robertson, Assistant Secretary of State for Far Eastern Affairs, to fly from Washington to Taipei for talks with Chiang Kai-shek, mainly hoping that Chiang Kai-shek would accept the "oracle" plan.Robertson and Chiang Kai-shek held three talks on New Zealand's proposal, the conclusion of the U.S.-Taiwan mutual defense treaty, and whether the treaty included Kinmen, Matsu and other coastal islands. With regard to the New Zealand proposal, Chiang Kai-shek strongly opposed submitting the issue of China's coastal islands to the UN Security Council.The main reason is that the "Oracle" proposal will lead to the prospect of "two Chinas" in the United Nations, which not only interferes in China's internal affairs, but also endangers Chiang Kai-shek's legal status.The growing international calls to admit the new mainland China into the United Nations had caused great uneasiness in Chiang Kai-shek.Chiang Kai-shek said to Robertson: "This proposal by the New Zealanders is only beneficial to the Communist Party. The ceasefire and neutralization of the coastal islands is only the first step. The next step is the neutralization of Taiwan, and then the CCP enters the United Nations, forming two Chinas, and then until Taiwan is taken over by the Communist Party. If If the ROC agrees to this proposal, it will have a devastating impact on the ROC military, ordinary people living in Taiwan, overseas Chinese, and Chinese on the mainland." During the talks, Chen Cheng and Zhang Qun took the opportunity to propose the conclusion of a bilateral treaty with the United States, including coastal islands, as a prerequisite. According to recently declassified archives in the United States, after seven hours of negotiations between Robertson and Chiang Kai-shek, Chiang Kai-shek's position is described as follows: 1. Chiang Kai-shek wishes not to make this proposal to the United Nations; 2. If New Zealand makes a proposal, it is best to announce at the same time or in advance that the United States and Taiwan are negotiating a bilateral defense treaty; 3. The Taiwan authorities hope to sign a treaty before the United Nations votes on the "Oracle" plan; 4. If New Zealand makes a proposal and the United States and Taiwan announce that they are negotiating a bilateral treaty, the delegation of the Taiwan authorities to the United Nations will not object to the proposal, but will reserve its position and wait to see the reaction of the Communist Party. Chiang Kai-shek not only reserved his position on the "Oracle" plan, but also hoped that the United States and Taiwan would sign a bilateral defense treaty before the United Nations voted on the "Oracle" plan. He also expressed that he would wait to see the reaction of the Communist Party.This shows that Chiang Kai-shek also has his own calculations, so as to promote the early signing of the US-Taiwan bilateral treaty. The US accelerated the process of negotiating the US-Taiwan Mutual Defense Treaty for the established idea; on December 2, Dulles and Ye Gongchao signed the "US-Taiwan Mutual Defense Agreement" in Washington on behalf of the US and Taiwan. Although the "Oracle" plan was opposed by Chiang Kai-shek, Dulles still did not give up his efforts.After the new year in 1955, the backseat sea battle became tense again, and when the People's Liberation Army stepped up its preparations to attack Dachen Island, Dulles mobilized the representatives of the United Kingdom and New Zealand to actively prepare to submit the case to the UN Security Council; at the same time, Dulles Si also persuaded Chiang Kai-shek to accept this plan through various channels. Chiang Kai-shek was deeply dissatisfied with this plan. Chiang called Gu Weijun, the ambassador in Washington, and instructed: "Great reservations should be taken with New Zealand's actions in the Security Council. It will cause great doubts, worries and misunderstandings, and we will encourage and support those who are People who aim at 'two Chinas'." Chiang Kai-shek also instructed Foreign Minister Ye Gongchao to put forward three objections to the proposed ceasefire resolution: disagreement with the wording of "peaceful settlement" to avoid creating the impression of negotiating with the Communist Party; disagreement with the use of the title of the People's Republic of China; disagreement with the The Taiwan authorities used the word "request" and believed that this did not distinguish the responsibility for "aggression".Ye Gongchao also hopes that the U.S. representative to the UN General Assembly will make it clear in the debate that the United States will continue to oppose the new China's entry into the United Nations and deny the concept of "two Chinas". On January 28, New Zealand's representative to the United Nations, with the support of the United States and the United Kingdom, submitted a proposal to the United Nations Security Council to "cease hostilities in certain island areas off the coast of mainland China".The representative of the Taiwan authorities, Jiang Tingfu, was not like Chiang Kai-shek once expressed to Deputy Secretary of State Robertson, "will not object but retain his own position." Jiang Tingfu raised clear objections.In response to New Zealand's proposal, the representative of the Soviet Union put forward a proposal to stop the United States from aggressing China.On January 31, the Security Council passed a resolution to put both proposals on the agenda, first to discuss New Zealand's "oracle" proposal, then to discuss the Soviet proposal, and decided to invite representatives of the People's Republic of China to participate in the discussion of the New Zealand proposal.On February 3, Premier Zhou Enlai replied to UN Secretary-General Hammarskjöld, pointing out that New Zealand's proposal was an interference in China's internal affairs; the representative of the People's Republic of China could not accept the UN's proposal while the representatives of the Chiang Kai-shek clique still depended on the UN. Invitation to United Nations meetings, in the absence of representatives of the People's Republic of China, any resolution on China is invalid. On February 7th, Chiang Kai-shek described the international situation at a meeting in Taipei, saying that only by upholding international justice can the crisis of aggression be overcome; the mainland and Taiwan are both Chinese territories, and the "Republic of China" cannot be divided. It is unthinkable for the United Nations to ask the mainland regime to cease fire Things, unless the Soviet Union, which invaded North Korea and China, is tried, the United Nations will lose its position.Taiwan is China's territory, and the mainland must be restored. Misinterpreting Taiwan's status has ulterior motives. The idea of ​​"two Chinas" is absolutely absurd.This was the first time that Chiang Kai-shek expressed his position on the "two Chinas" issue. The "Oracle" proposal planned by Dulles was strongly opposed by the Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait with different words but the same basic position.Although Zhou Enlai and Chiang Kai-shek were ideological enemies, their common basic position on the "Oracle" plan was to oppose "two Chinas." The "Oracle" proposal was resisted and rejected, and the Security Council had no choice but to shelve the discussion indefinitely. This is the first time since the founding of New China that the Kuomintang and the Communist Party, which are hostile to each other on both sides of the strait, have shown an astonishing unanimity in the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation concerning the territorial integrity of a sovereign state, even though they are still fighting on the seashore. Sixteen years later, on October 25, 1971, during the second visit to China by Dr. Kissinger of the United States, he held talks with Premier Zhou Enlai on the draft communiqué between China and the United States, and confronted each other on the Taiwan issue. Each party insisted on their own views and refused to give in to each other, thus reaching an impasse, which became the most difficult issue in discussing the text of the communiqué. When Kissinger realized that Zhou Enlai would no longer make concessions, he pulled his assistant Lord from his seat, went to a corner of the conference hall to discuss for a while, and decided to express the views of the United States in another way.After Kissinger took his seat again, to Zhou En: "How about changing the U.S. formulation to this: 'The U.S. recognizes that all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait believe there is only one China and Taiwan is part of China'?" Zhou Enlai repeated this sentence, with a smile on his face, and said in praise: "A doctor is a doctor after all. This is a mysterious invention." Kissinger admitted afterwards that this sentence was not his own invention, but was extracted from a document of the US State Department in the 1950s; this document describes the process of the "Oracle" proposal planned by Dulles from its formulation to its abortion.