Chapter 40 1. China is not a burden on the earth

Some people believe that there are currently three major threats to human life: hunger, disease, and war.Hunger is an inherent threat to human beings.Since humans have existed, there has been hunger.The history of human development is also, to a large extent, a history of hunger and anti-hunger.Brown, director of the Worldwatch Institute in the United States, believes: "The real threat in the future will not be military aggression but hunger." In the current world, although the total grain output has increased significantly due to the continuous advancement of science and technology, due to the rapid increase in population, the contradiction between grain supply and demand has not been effectively resolved, but has become more and more serious, manifested in hundreds of millions of people. of the population is still living a life without food, and the world's food reserves are decreasing year by year.In this context, Brown and others are committed to the research and analysis of the world food situation in order to attract the attention of the world, which is valuable and worthy of recognition.

Brown believes that the future world is a "hungry world" on the grounds that the growth of food will not keep up with the growth of population.But what is puzzling is that he thinks that the hidden danger of world hunger in the future will not fall on those sub-Saharan African countries with less arable land, harsh climate and environment, backward economic development, and food shortages, but the imposition of In China, where food production has been greatly developed and the food problem has basically been solved, it is obvious that this is either an unintentional mistake or an intentional distortion.

Brown believes that since the world entered the 1990s, more and more evidence shows that an era of "food crisis" is coming.He predicted that when China, home to 22% of the world's population, is ready to join the ranks of rich countries and live with the same high standards, this transition to the era of "food crisis" will be greatly accelerated.It means that due to China's economic development, the Chinese people's food demand has increased, and China has no ability to increase the supply. Therefore, it has to import large quantities of food, resulting in a shortage of food in the world.In other words, wealthy Chinese will grab food from their rice bowls.Therefore, he believes that China's future hunger problem is also the most difficult problem in the world. China's food shortage will be the world's food shortage, and China's food price rise will be the world's food price rise. A personal land crisis.He said: "The imminent huge food import of China will send a loud wake-up call to the whole world. It will bring a huge ecological impact to our planet with a population of 5.7 billion. It will force people to re- Think about the definition of 'security', because food scarcity and economic instability will threaten us more than armed aggression."

Brown also warned with horror: the real contradiction in the world at present is not in Somalia and Haiti, which are plagued by poverty, as we usually imagine, but in China, which is economically developing. Could it be that China, with its economic development, has become a burden on the earth instead?Brown's argument caused an uproar in the world's public opinion. After careful research and analysis, most experts and scholars at home and abroad agreed that Brown's prediction was wrong. Even the United States Department of Agriculture and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization did not approve of Brown's prediction. statement.

Brown's prediction that China's food production will drop by 20% between 1990 and 2030 is a startling one.But Brown's prediction is at odds with most people's views.The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that China's grain production will increase by about 1% per year over the next few years.The Washington-based World Food Policy Research Institute predicts that by 2020, China's wheat, corn and rice production will increase by 90%, 80% and 54%, respectively.Nicos Alessandratos, Director of Reserves at the World Food and Agriculture Organization, estimates that even if China's cereal (wheat, corn, and rice) planted area decreases by 2% from 1990 to 2030, its cereal production could increase68 %.

Alexandra Tos published "Prediction of China's Future Food Shortages from a Global Perspective", which clearly refuted Brown's prediction.He believes that Brown's oracle-like prediction of the future is based on some unrealistic assumptions, and this prediction is not much better than his earlier prediction of disaster.At the height of grain price hikes in 1974, Brown predicted that the real price of grain would continue to rise, but it didn’t take long for grain prices to show a long-term downward trend again; another time, Brown once made the United States, France, and China. It was predicted that the growth of grain output would stop at the end of the 1970s, but in fact, in the 1980s and 1990s, the grain output of these three countries achieved relatively large growth.

The American magazine Foreign Affairs published an article in 1996 by Professor Robert Pallberg, an associate member of the Harvard Center for International Affairs, in which he clearly pointed out: "Africa, not China, is facing a crisis."He believes that the most serious problems facing the world food system are in South Asia and Africa, and most of the dangers facing the world food system have nothing to do with China.In Africa, he said, the number of undernourished people is likely to increase in the coming decades because of poor governance, slow economic growth and environmental degradation in rural areas.The harsh climate, lack of natural resources, poverty in rural areas, and inequality between men and women all keep food production growing at just 2% a year, which is lower than the growth rate of the population, which at some point in the year is always as much as 40% Malnutrition.In many parts of South Asia, the population density is high, and the population in these areas is still increasing rapidly, which will exacerbate the contradiction between food supply and demand.As for China, although grain consumption will continue to increase rapidly as Chinese people's income increases, Brown is wrong to think that exporting countries and Chinese grain producers will not be able to meet this demand. Brown greatly underestimated China and the development capabilities of countries around the world.For Malthusian population theorists like Brown, the focus should be on Africa, not China.

Kang Xiaoguang, an associate researcher at the Ecology Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and translator of "Who Will Feed China" believes that Brown's analysis is serious but one-sided, and his conclusions are absurd.He believes that Brown underestimated the potential of China's grain growth.While underestimating the area of ​​China's arable land, he overestimated the current yield per unit area, thus mistakenly believing that China's current grain production has reached the upper limit of continuous increase allowed by natural resources, denying the possibility of world scientific and technological progress.Secondly, when Brown compared China with Japan, South Korea and other countries and regions, he ignored the important difference between China and these countries and regions—China’s industrialization is a long-term process, and it presents a high degree of spatial imbalance.While the grain output in the southeast coastal areas of our country is declining, the grain output in the northwest provinces is rising.At present, the pattern of "transporting grain from north to south" and "transferring grain from west to east" has been formed and will exist for a long time, which will greatly delay the decline in China's grain output, and the magnitude and speed of the decline will be smaller than those in Japan and South Korea.

Chen Xiwen, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that China does not have the food security problem mentioned by Brown. During the 18 years from 1978 to 1995, my country imported 226 million tons of grain, but also exported 108 million tons of grain. 6% of imports.China's grain production and supply are normal and fully guaranteed. Liu Jiang, the former minister of China's Ministry of Agriculture, used a series of solid and reliable data to announce to the world that the Chinese are fully capable of supporting themselves.He pointed out that from 1949 to 1984, my country's total grain output increased from more than 110 million tons to more than 400 million tons, with an average annual increase of 3.7%. The kilograms increased to nearly 400 kilograms. From 1984 to 1995, my country's grain production reached a new level of 450 million tons, with an average annual increase of 3%.The per capita consumption of meat, aquatic products, poultry eggs and vegetables reached 41.3 kg, 19.5 kg, 13 kg and 198 kg respectively, exceeding the world average.China now uses 7% of the world's arable land to feed 22% of the world's population, which in itself is a major contribution to world food security.And the Chinese in the future will be able to feed themselves. By 2030, when my country's population reaches a peak of 1.6 billion, it is estimated that more than 600 million tons of food will be needed.According to this goal, the average annual grain output will increase by 4 billion kilograms in the future, with an annual increase rate of less than 1%.Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, my country's annual average grain production has increased by nearly 8 billion kilograms, an annual increase of 3%.Therefore, the annual increase rate required to reach 600 million tons is only equivalent to 1/3 of the average level of Jianguo, and only equivalent to 1/2 of the past 10 years.This goal is fully achievable.

The reason why Mr. Brown is caught in the fog of pessimism and cannot see the bright future of China's grain is mainly because he is too much, too heavy, and even exaggerates the unfavorable factors of China's grain production and supply, while ignoring the favorable factors of China's grain production and supply factor.This book makes a comparatively systematic analysis from various aspects such as grain production and demand. Generally speaking, we do not deny that there are still many difficulties in China's grain development, but we also see that China's grain production has huge potential , not only can feed the current population of more than 1.2 billion, but also feed the future 1.6 billion Chinese.In the vast China, there are many favorable conditions for developing grain production, increasing supply and solving food problems. For example, the country and government attach great importance to agriculture and grain production, and have adopted a series of policies to protect and promote grain in recent years. measure.In addition, the tens of millions of hard-working farmers in China who gained autonomy in the rural reform are a strong source of strength to promote agriculture and increase grain.If the huge role of these conditions is fully utilized, then the prospect of China's grain is not pessimistic, but optimistic; it is not bleak, but full of light.

Scholars such as Ding Shengjun made a more detailed study on China's grain production potential.First of all, China will not reduce its arable land at a rate of 1% per year like Japan and Taiwan since the 1950s, so that by 2030, China's arable land will only be half of its current size.Although China will inevitably occupy part of the cultivated land due to the needs of industrialization, China also has abundant reserve resources of cultivated land, which can compensate for the reduction of cultivated land. From 1949 to 1994, the annual net decrease of China's cultivated land was less than 1 million mu, which was mainly due to the increase of new cultivated land through reclamation and reclamation.At present, there are more than 200 million mu of wasteland suitable for reclamation in China. The Chinese government plans to reclaim 6 million mu of land each year. The annual reduction of cultivated land is controlled within 7 million mu, and the net reduction of cultivated land is controlled within 1 million mu. In 2030, China’s cultivated land will only decrease by 8000 10,000 mu, only equivalent to 5.6% of the current cultivated land.It is an undeniable fact that China's per capita arable land resources are insufficient, but there is ample room for developing land resources.In my country's composition of "seven parts of mountains and rivers, two parts of grasslands, and one part of cultivated land", the cultivated land, which is a scarce resource, is seriously wasted, so there is still great potential for development: there are about 500 million pieces of reclaimable wasteland in the country, of which it can be used in the near future. About 120 million mu of cultivated land has been reclaimed, about 100 million mu of sporadic wasteland, and about 50 million mu of cultivated land can be developed in the near future; there are also 50 million mu of tidal flats suitable for reclamation, and the area of ​​fresh water and offshore sea areas available for breeding is about 100 million mu. 1 million square kilometers.In addition to wasteland that is suitable for reclamation, the amount of cultivated land resources damaged due to various natural disasters and infrastructure construction is also quite large, accumulatively exceeding 100 million mu, and only about 2% has been reclaimed so far.If the reclamation rate reaches 50% in some foreign countries, tens of millions of acres of arable land with good production conditions can be excavated only by these three items in the country.This is equivalent to the sum of arable land in a small country, and one can imagine how huge its potential is. Secondly, China's arable land has great potential to increase production.So far, there are still two-thirds of the country's cultivated land, that is, more than 900 million mu of cultivated land is at a medium or low yield level.The multi-cropping index of the national land is about 150%, and the highest can be increased to 200%.Every 1 percentage point increase in the national multi-cropping index is equivalent to expanding the grain planting area by 15 million mu.If the multi-cropping index is increased to 165% by 2030, the increased grain sown area can basically offset the reduction of cultivated land, so that the grain crop area can still be maintained at the level of 1.6 billion mu by 2030.In the 12 southern provinces and regions with superior light, heat, water and soil conditions in our country, there are 200 million mu of winter idle fields, and at least 100 million mu of land can be developed and utilized in the near future.According to calculations, taking biological, scientific and engineering measures, transforming low- and medium-yield fields, reasonably increasing the multiple cropping index, and developing southern fallow fields can increase grain production by 39 million to 57 million tons, which is roughly equivalent to an increase of 50 million tons in the country. ability. In addition, increasing grain yield per unit area is not only the main experience of increasing China's grain production in the past few decades, but also the direction of future efforts.Now our average grain yield is only about 300 kilograms per mu. Although it is higher than the world average level, there is still a big gap compared with developed countries. The average yield of rice is 60-80 kilograms per mu, wheat is 100-200 kilograms lower, and corn is 100-200 kilograms lower. Low 200-300 kg.Combining various technical factors for increasing production, it is technically achievable to increase my country's per unit yield by 80-100%.And by 2030, as long as we increase the average yield per mu to 400 kg, the total grain output can reach 640 million tons.This is both necessary and possible.According to expert analysis, transforming 2/3 of the low- and medium-yield fields can increase grain production by 40 billion kilograms; using scientific progress, such as changing grain crop varieties, promoting plastic film mulching, deep application of chemical fertilizers and other mature and applicable technologies, the existing per unit yield level can be reduced. Increased by 30-50%.At present, the level of agricultural science and technology in China is about 14 to 20 years behind that of developed countries. Although the effect of agricultural science and technology progress on increasing crop production in my country has increased from 20% in the past to 40% now, it is still at a relatively low level. Developed countries Generally 70-80%.Therefore, the potential for technological advancement is considerable.According to normal rules, the promotion of improved varieties can increase grain production by 8-12%; increasing the application of chemical fertilizers and scientific fertilization can increase production by 16%; improving farming systems and promoting comprehensive supporting cultivation techniques can increase production by 4-10%; scientific control of diseases and insect pests can reduce production losses 10-20%.If my country gradually increases the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress to grain production increase from the current 40% to the advanced level of 50% or even 70%, the national grain production capacity can be expanded by 45-90 million tons.It is enough to ensure that China's grain will reach a new level by the end of this century. Fourth, "food throttling" has considerable potential.In China, a country with a vast territory and a large population, grain and other food resources are seriously wasted.This shows that my country's grain "throttling" potential is huge.According to the survey, the loss rate of my country's grain crops in the links of harvesting, storage, processing, transportation, and utilization is at least 10%.That is to say, there are as many as tens of billions of kilograms of grain lost in vain every year in the whole country.If warehousing, processing, and transportation conditions are improved, and grain and other food resources are comprehensively developed and utilized, calculated by reducing the loss rate by 5%, 15-20 million tons of grain can be reduced each year. If the medium yield is 350 kilograms, it is roughly equivalent to no Farming results in a total grain output of 40-55 million mu.If the compound feed and scientific feeding technology are popularized, then the feed-to-meat ratio of pig raising can be increased by 20-30%, the feed-meat ratio of chicken raising can be increased by more than 50%, and the feed remuneration for raising dairy cows, layer hens and fish can be significantly improved. increase.As for the hundreds of millions of tons of stalks, a large amount of beef and mutton can also be converted into a large amount of beef and mutton by using a part of ammonification to develop herbivores.This is of great significance to ensuring the food consumption of the Chinese people and improving their living standards. According to a comprehensive analysis, my country's resources have a potential of 600-700 million tons of grain production, which can fully meet the per capita demand of 400 kg for a population of 1.6 billion.As long as we take practical measures and take advantage of favorable conditions, it is entirely possible that the national total grain output will maintain an annual growth rate of 2% by the end of this century and the beginning of the next century.According to this development, by 2030, China's total grain output will reach more than 600 million tons. As long as a moderate amount of grain is imported as a supplement and adjustment, it will basically be able to meet the needs of the 1.6 billion population at that time, and it is impossible to import a large amount of grain. situation, so there is no such thing as China's "hungry world".That is to say, although there will be difficulties in China's food supply in the future, there is no major crisis. China is fully capable of self-reliance to solve its own food problems. Brown's point of view is untenable. Self-reliance is our commitment to the world and our determination to solve the food problem.President Jiang Zemin emphasized that the food problem of the 1.2 billion Chinese people can only be solved by themselves, and they can also be solved by self-reliance.At the World Food Summit in 1996, Li Peng, former Premier of the State Council, announced on behalf of the Chinese government: China has the ability to solve its own food problems, and China is an important force in maintaining world food security.He pointed out that in the next 15 years and longer, with the increase of population and the improvement of food consumption level in China, the demand for food will continue to grow.But no matter from the perspective of economy or technology, China has the confidence and ability to solve its own food problems. On March 19, 1997, Zhu Rongji, the new Premier of the State Council, said boldly at a press conference at home and abroad: "Due to the success of China's agricultural policy, China has had three consecutive years of bumper harvests, and China's grain stocks have now reached the highest level in history. I can responsibly He said that even if China suffers another two years of natural disasters, there will be no shortage of food." We have every reason to say that China in the future will not only not become a burden on the earth nor bring crises to the world, but will also be an important force in maintaining world food security and will make a major contribution to solving the global problem of food and clothing. . Why is Brown worried about China's food prospects?It's very interesting to say - the Chinese eat meat, but he is flustered! Around 1993, a reporter from the "New York Times" interviewed a Chinese farmer named Yan in Hunan, China, and asked him whether his living conditions had improved. The old man Yan replied: "Generally speaking, life is getting better and better. Well, our family now eats meat four or five times a week, whereas ten years ago, there was no meat at all." Brown was terrified by this.He introduced this story into his thesis many times, and extended it to say that China's food crisis is not the failure of agriculture, but the necessity of economic development.He believes that when incomes increase, one of the first things low-income people do is to diversify their dietary structure, from the monotonous dietary structure of rice accounting for 70% of the total calories to more meat, milk and eggs. food consumption.In his book "Who Will Feed China", Brown wrote: "China's economy has grown by an astonishing 56% in the past 4 years, and per capita income has increased by 50%. With the increase in income, those problems of food and clothing in the past have been solved. People who can't do it first enrich their diet, changing from starchy food-based meals to a variety of dishes including chicken, fish, meat and eggs, milk butter, yogurt and even ice cream.  …” A large country with a population of 1.2 billion has not only successfully solved the problem of food and clothing, but also significantly improved the living standards of the people.As an agricultural expert and environmentalist, Brown should be pleased with this major achievement of China.However, Brown is a bit "selfish". He seems to prefer that China continue to be impoverished like Somalia and Haiti rather than China's economy develop like theirs in the United States - because he believes that the hungry Somalis are unable to come to the United States to grab food. Wealthy Chinese may snatch food from their rice bowls. Brown argues that more meat demand means more grain production - 2kg of grain for every kilogram of poultry, 4kg for pork and 7kg for beef.As the Chinese get richer, they will consume more meat, milk, and eggs. If the supply of grains cannot keep pace with the changes in the Chinese diet, food prices will skyrocket.He said in a panic: "The Chinese people's growing demand for animal protein will exceed the world's grain production capacity." As one Xinhua reporter commented: "The addition of meat to Chinese farmers' rice bowls has alarmed a group of environmentalists in Washington, who believe that Chinese people have little appetite for chicken, meat, eggs, and even milk, beer, and ice cream." The appetite is getting bigger and bigger, and will eat up all the grain sold on the world market..." With the development of China's economy, people's living standards will gradually improve, including the rising demand for meat products. This is an irresistible trend and the purpose of our reform.There is no reason for the Chinese to live in poverty forever. However, we can responsibly tell Brown and others that Chinese people can not only solve their own food problems by self-reliance, but also that we can solve the Chinese meat-eating problem by self-reliance, so there is no need to make foreigners panic. First of all, we believe that Chinese meat consumption has reached a certain level, and the extent of its continued growth is far less dire than Brown imagined.At present, China's per capita meat consumption is about the same as that of South Korea, only 10 kg lower than that of Japan.The meat consumption of urban residents has basically reached saturation and will not increase significantly in the short term; although the meat consumption of rural residents will continue to rise, rural residents have the habit of raising pigs at home. Therefore, the meat consumption of farmers Most of them can be solved through their own efforts. Secondly, the food needed to raise pigs, cattle, sheep, etc. in China is far from as much as Brown calculated.Brown's calculation is based on the large-scale factory breeding in the United States, while most of China's family is free-range.According to the conclusion drawn from previous experience, the ratio of meat to feed is usually 1:4.5 for pork and 1:7 for beef. , so food consumption is less.According to a survey in Sichuan, the meat-to-feed ratio of free-range farmer households is 1:1.8 for pork and 1:2 for beef.At present, the raising of pigs, cattle and sheep in China is mostly based on families, and the amount of factory breeding is less.Chinese scholar Du Ying conducted a study on meat production in 1995 and concluded that the ratio of meat to feed was only 1:2. In this way, we produce the same meat products, but consume much less grain than the United States and other Western countries. In addition, my country's meat production potential is also relatively large.my country is one of the countries with the largest grassland area in the world. The grassland area in hilly and mountainous areas is 4.1 billion mu, of which 3.35 billion mu is usable. The area that can be improved to high-level grassland in the near future is 50 million mu; among grasslands, there is great potential There are 1.03 billion mu of grassy slopes in southern grasslands, of which 670 million mu can be used.If 80% of the country's usable pastures are transformed into artificial pastures, more than 10 million dairy cows and 20 million beef cattle can be added, which can double my country's meat and milk production.In addition, my country has a vast sea area, with a coastline as long as 18,000 kilometers. The shallow tidal flat aquaculture fishery area covers an area of ​​nearly 100 million mu. Sea products such as fish, shrimp, shellfish, and algae and tidal flat resources are very rich.If it is further developed and utilized, a variety of aquatic products can be produced, and the increase in production is many times that of the existing output of more than 20 million tons of various seafood.All of these are enough to increase the meat consumption of Chinese people by a large margin on the existing basis. In addition, my country has 500 million tons of straw every year, which can raise a large number of herbivores.As long as we use 1/3 of it, it is equivalent to 1/3 of the current national feed grain consumption.Since the Ministry of Agriculture implemented the straw cattle breeding project in 1992, it took only 3 years to double the national beef output. Facts have shown that China's meat production potential is quite large, enough to ensure the Chinese people's meat consumption demand for a long period of time, without affecting China's grain supply and demand balance, and will not impact the international grain market.The concerns of Brown et al. are unnecessary. On the contrary, we would like to remind Brown and others that it is precisely the western developed countries where they live that consume too much of the world's food resources.According to the statistics of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the average daily calorie intake per person in developed countries reaches 3,340 kcal, which exceeds 31% of the human body's needs, and 15 people out of every 100 people are overnourished. In sharp contrast, the third Each person in the world only gets an average of 2,210 calories per day, and nearly 900 million people are severely malnourished.Medical workers believe that an adult's daily intake of 40 grams of animal protein is enough, and 32 of the 34 developed countries have an average daily intake of animal protein of more than 80 grams, of which the United States reaches 105 grams.Western developed countries directly or indirectly consume 1,000 kilograms of grain per capita per year, of which 1,500 kilograms are in the United States, while in some areas of sub-Saharan Africa, the per capita consumption of grain is only 50-100 kilograms, and most of them are miscellaneous grains. Food waste in developed countries is even more astonishing. The food that Americans waste and throw into the trash in one year is enough to feed people on the African continent for one month.There are 40 million dogs and 23 million cats in the United States, and one animal consumes more food than the average person in a third world country consumes.American scholar Miller pointed out in his book "Global Order" published in 1985: "The United States only accounts for about 6% of the world's population, but its annual consumption accounts for more than 30% of the world's consumption." According to the results published in the "Development Report", rich countries account for 25% of the world's population, but consume 60% of the food. Michael Todaro, an authority on American economics, also bluntly stated in his book "Economic Development and the Third World": "Compared with the acquisition and utilization of scarce natural resources and raw materials, population is only an economic issue. In fact , developed countries account for 1/4 of the world's population, but consume almost 80% of the world's resources. For example, the average amount of world food, energy and raw material resources consumed directly or indirectly by North American and European consumers is almost the same as Therefore, according to the limited resource consumption in the world, having one more child in a developed country has the same meaning as adding 16 children in a less developed country.” He pointedly pointed out: “ The rich countries are deeply concerned about the growth of the population of the poor countries, and the real attempt is to hinder the development of the poor countries, so as to maintain an international status quo in their own favor." British scholar Paul Harrison also pointedly pointed out: "Those in the West who are worried about the pressure on food resources by the world's population should remember that their typical family of four consumes more food than a pair of 18. Poor Indian couples with children spend even more." For the security and stability of the world's food, Brown and others should advise Western countries to restrain their behavior and reduce food prodigiousness and waste.As for the Chinese people's meat-eating problem, he needn't worry about it, because we can make the Chinese people eat well and eat well with our own efforts. Brown believes that "China is beginning to lose the ability to support itself", therefore, China can only rely on a large amount of food imports to solve its own survival problems.As a large country with a population of 1.6 billion, Brown believes that even if China has enough foreign exchange to afford a large amount of food, no country or group of countries can provide so much food.From this, he deduced that China's food shortage will lead to the world's food shortage, and China's hunger will affect everyone in the world. In fact, hunger is a long-standing problem. In the past and today, China did not import a large amount of food. However, for a long time, not only more than 1 billion people in developing countries are struggling with hunger, but also in developed countries.Even if someone goes hungry tomorrow, it will not be because the Chinese eat more or eat better.It is patently absurd to think that China will lead to world hunger. In fact, China has never relied on other countries to support itself. Although we also have some imports, they are only a very small amount of supplementation and adjustment.This is both normal and in line with the principles of a market economy. Based on domestic resources, to achieve basic self-sufficiency in grain is the basic policy of the Chinese government to solve the problem of grain supply and demand.Since the founding of New China 50 years ago, China's grain has been both in and out.As early as the early days of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, when the country’s food situation gradually improved, in order to exchange for necessary equipment and materials and support the construction of the country’s basic industries, since 1950, China organized a certain amount of grain exports every year, and the cumulative exports in three years 5.09 billion kilograms of grain.Although the amount is small, it shows the prospect of China's self-reliance to solve the food problem, and it is also a powerful counterattack to the imperialist blockade and embargo and slander against China on the food issue. During the "Great Leap Forward" period, due to the landslide of agricultural production, grain output declined.However, under the impetus of high indicators and exaggeration, grain exports not only did not decrease, but continued to increase.Since 1958, it has exceeded the country's capacity for three consecutive years and exported a large amount of grain.Among them, in 1958, imports and exports were balanced, with net exports of 3.25 billion kilograms, a sharp increase of 73.1% over 1957; net exports of 4.79 billion kilograms in 1959, an increase of 45.9% over 1958, equivalent to 2.5 times that of 1957; Net exports of 1 billion kg.Exporting so much grain in the past three years has aggravated the domestic grain difficulties.Therefore, at the end of 1960, the central government decided to start importing grain in 1961. From 1961 to 1965, a total of 27.8 billion kilograms of grain was imported, with an annual average of 5.47 billion kilograms.During the same period, a total of 6.3 billion kilograms of grain was exported, with an annual average of 1.27 billion kilograms. Imports and exports were balanced. During this period, a total of 21 billion kilograms of grain was imported, with an average annual net import of 4.2 billion kilograms. During the "Cultural Revolution", under the influence of the extreme "Left" line, food imports were once criticized as "revisionism". Since then, people have regarded imported food as a forbidden area.When there is a large gap in the domestic grain balance, the increase in imported grain is not considered, and the entire burden is placed on the farmers, causing social unrest. In the early stage of the "Cultural Revolution", there was basically no imported grain. From 1971 to 1976, a total of 25.72 million tons of grain was imported, and 16.85 million tons of grain was exported during the same period, with an average annual net import of 1.48 million tons of grain. After the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the central government decided to import 10-15 million tons of grain every year, so that some parts of the country can recuperate, and some places can implement the policy of adapting measures to local conditions to develop cash crops, so as to increase farmers' income. In 1980 and 1981, China imported about 13 million tons of grain, and in 1982 it reached 15.31 million tons. In 1983 and 1984, the domestic grain harvest was bumper year after year, the country's grain balance was more than balanced, the inventory increased, and the country began to increase grain exports.Overall, from 1979 to 1984, my country imported 72 million tons of grain and exported 9.65 million tons of grain.The average annual net import of grain is 10.39 million tons. After 1989, it was "difficult to sell grain" for three consecutive years. The state adjusted the grain import and export policy. From 1989 to 1991, the import volume dropped to 7.285 million tons. 3.85 million tons. After the grain turmoil in 1994, in order to quickly stabilize the grain market and ensure food supply, in 1995 it became a net import of 19.72 million tons of grain, the highest level in the history of annual grain imports. From 1979 to 1995, China's total grain import was 238 million tons, an average of 13.222 million tons per year; the total grain export was 104 million tons, with an average of 5.777 million tons per year. Among the 18 years, there are 13 years of net imports and 5 years of net exports.Among them, the net imports exceeded 10 million tons in 7 years. From the above, we can see that the fluctuation factor of China's grain export volume only accounts for about 2-9.3% of the world's grain trade volume, and if 1995 is excluded, the average is only 3%. In addition, we can also see that China has little dependence on the international grain market.Although China is currently a net importer, since 1978, the proportion of net imported grain in domestic grain production has shown a decreasing trend: 3.2% from 1978 to 1984, 1.2% from 1985 to 1990, and 1.2% from 1991 to 1995 0.4%.Based on the net import volume in 1995, when the import volume was the largest, the net import accounted for only about 4.3% of the total annual domestic grain consumption.In addition, the proportion of China's grain imports in the total import and export volume is not high. Taking 1990 as an example, China's grain export trade volume was 540 million US dollars, and the grain import volume was 2.32 billion US dollars, accounting for 0.87% and 4.35% of the export and import volume of the year respectively. , while the grain export volume in that year was 5.83 million tons, the import volume was 13.72 million tons, and the net import was 7.89 million tons, which was the year with the second highest net import value in the 1990s.Even in 1995, when the net grain imports were the highest in history, the grain imports accounted for 4.54% of the total imports, which was not high.The low proportion of grain imports to total imports shows that China imports a portion of grain from the international market appropriately, and there is no problem of insufficient foreign exchange demand. China's grain imports will not affect the stability of the international grain market.Judging from the situation of the international grain market, since the 1990s, the world grain trade has generally hovered around 200 million tons.Among them, 50% is wheat trade, 6-8% is rice, and the rest is coarse grains.In the same period of my country's grain imports, wheat imports accounted for about 10% of the world's wheat imports, accounting for about 80% of my country's grain imports, and corn was an export variety, accounting for 10% of the world's corn exports in many years.Most of the world's rice trade volume is between 12 and 16 million tons, and my country's rice export reached 1 million tons in the year when it was the most.Calculated from the total amount, China's grain exports account for 3-5% of the world's grain exports, and its grain imports account for 3-8% of the world's grain imports. This ratio shows that China is not very dependent on the international grain market. 综上所述，根据粮食出口额占总进口额比重判断，中国增加一定数量的粮食进口不会有支付能力不足的问题，而且中国粮食进口占世界进口的比例也不会造成世界粮食供应紧张，相反，中国每年稳定在从国际市场进口一定量的粮食，还有助于调节国际市场粮食供求的区域不平衡，因而有利于粮食市场的安全。 现在的中国没有影响到世界粮食的安全，将来也不会导致国际粮食市场的波动。前面我们已经分析了中国粮食生产的潜力，从总的情况来看，只要我们的政策到位，措施到位，下一世纪中国的粮食供需将处于基本平衡的状态。当然，这并不排斥少量进口粮食以进行适度调剂。大部分研究认为，到2030年中国出现人口峰值时，进口粮食量大约为3000～5000万吨左右，国际市场依存度在6～8%之间。基本上处于自给状态，对国际粮食市场的影响并不大。少量的粮食进口并不就说明一个国家失出了养活自己的能力。现代的社会生产最本质的要求，就是分工和交换，市场正是为此而存在的。正如陈锡文先生指出的，美国的进口中也包括不少食品，但不能说美国人没养活自己。中国平均每年进口粮食679吨，但每年也要出口不少猪肉、鸡肉等，还有非粮食作物。中国是对日本出口鸡肉的第一大国，在日本市场上占有率是最高的，这也是粮食出口。不是不进口或只出口粮食才叫自己养活自己，总得有进有出，有所调节。日本的粮食自给率仅为26%，处于世界第113位，没有人说是哪个国家养活了日本，为什么中国仅进口国内消费总量的3～8%左右的粮食就被认为是失出了养活自己的能力了呢？这显然是不公正的，也是不符合事实的。 中国长期奉行的方针是粮食基本自给。我们不会把解决中国人吃饭问题的希望寄托在国际市场上，这一点是非常明确的。江泽民总书记强调：“12亿中国人的吃饭问题只能靠自己来解决……这是从保持全国经济、社会稳定发展的全国性要求出发的，是从保持和加强我国在国际竞争中的独立自主地位的战略性要求考虑的。”在当今的世界，粮食问题是一个关系国家主权、民族独立和人民平等生存的问题。现在国际粮食市场操纵在美国等少数国家手里，成为他们达到某种目的的“战略武器”。80年代中期，前苏联粮食进口量一度达到5000万吨，美国突然实行禁运，给前苏联一个措手不及。1973年智利的军事政变，在很大程度上也是美国粮食武器的作用。其教训都足以令我们借鉴。 美国记者丹·摩根写了一部旨在揭露国际粮食贸易真相的著作《粮食巨人——一件比石油更强大的武器》，他认为，饥饿常常存在于那些常常接受美国粮食援助和大量进口粮食的国家。因此，世界粮食问题的关键不在于农业生产不足或爆炸性的人口增长，而在于不是真正造福人类的贸易体制。美国为了达到控制第三世界的目的，它常常以粮食为武器来间接干涉第三世界国家的内政。凡是美国在哪里有政治、经济或军事利益，哪里就会得到粮食援助。在那些经济和居民都依赖进口美国产品的国家里，粮食援助都用作棍子和其他外交工具交替使用。 这意味着，中国也不能靠吃洋米生活。