Chapter 19 3. Eating "well-off": China's protein strategy

In his book "Who Can Afford China's Needed Food", which caused a world sensation, Brown cited an example: In 1993, when a reporter asked a farmer in a remote mountainous area about the improvement of living conditions When the question was asked, the farmer’s answer was: “In general, life is much better now than before. Our family can now eat meat 4 to 5 times a week, while we could not eat meat at all 10 years ago.” Therefore, Brown It is believed that China's 1.2 billion people are greatly improving their dietary structure.Brown believes that it is unprecedented for so many people in China to improve their diet in such a short period of time.

After the problem of fullness is basically solved, people still want to eat better. This is very normal. It is by no means a luxury, but a necessity of social development.From the perspective of the development process of all countries, they have experienced similar situations.It is obviously absurd and unfair for Chinese farmers to make a fuss over eating more meat, and even think that it will affect the food security of the world. The increase of meat products, that is to say the indirect consumption of grain, has become an irresistible trend in China. In 1980, my country's total feed grain consumption was 38.65 billion kg, or 39.2 kg per capita; by 1986, the total feed grain consumption had increased to 74 billion kg, or 69.8 kg per capita, almost doubling. In 1994, the consumption of all feed grains reached 150.5 billion kilograms, or 125.6 kilograms per capita, nearly doubling again.This year, my country's total grain consumption was 445 million tons, and feed grain consumption accounted for more than 1/3.Judging from the proportion of feed grains in rations, this trend is also illustrated. In 1987, my country's per capita ration was 248.88 kg, which dropped to 235.91 kg in 1992; the per capita consumption of feed grain rose from 87.185 kg in 1987 to 114.42 kg in 1992, accounting for 48% of the ration.This is indeed a huge achievement for a country that has just solved the problem of food and clothing.It marks that the living standards of Chinese people have been greatly improved, and they have begun to transform from "eat enough" to "eat well".

Of course, compared with developed countries, we are still far behind.It can be seen from the above that by 1994 in China, the per capita indirect consumption of grain (mainly feed grain) was only 1/3 of the total consumption, while in the United States, the per capita indirect consumption of grain was 9.3 times that of direct consumption, accounting for 90.2 of the total consumption. %.An American directly eats only 60 to 70 kilograms of food per year, and only 5 kilograms per month. Therefore, some people say that Americans hardly rely on "eating" to survive. Except for the United States, like the United Kingdom, the amount of grain consumed indirectly is 3.5 times that of direct consumption, and that of the former Soviet Union is 3.1 times. In developing countries such as China, the Philippines, Indonesia, and India, direct food consumption is still higher than indirect consumption. Much more.At present, China's direct consumption is three times that of indirect consumption, while that of Indonesia is even lower at 14.2 times, and that of India is 8.5 times.

China is in an era of substantial increase in indirect food consumption. In 1980, my country's direct grain consumption reached 271.8 million tons, accounting for 87.1% of the total grain consumption, while the indirect grain consumption was 38.6 million tons, accounting for only 12.9%; by 1986, the proportion of direct grain consumption was still It reached 80.8%, and the proportion of indirect consumption was only 19.2%. After 1994, the indirect grain consumption of Chinese people was basically one-third of the world. After inspecting China's food problems, Mr. Brown concluded that China's 1.2 billion people are greatly improving their dietary structure.He believes that with the increase of income, the first thing for low-income people to do is to use the money to improve food.In the past, the dietary structure of Chinese people was mainly based on starchy grains such as rice, and the calories they supplied accounted for more than 70% of the total intake.Now, Chinese people's dietary structure has become richer, including meat (pork, chicken, beef, mutton), eggs, milk, butter, cheese and ice cream.Changes in food patterns that accompany rising incomes are common in all societies.In the past four years, China's economy has miraculously grown by 56%, and per capita income has increased by 50%. Therefore, it can be said that China's large-scale dietary structure change has come.

Brown also believes that growth in the production and consumption of meat products is the best indicator of economic changes since China's 1978 reforms. In 1977, the total consumption of meat products in China was 770 million tons. 16 years later, this figure increased by 5 times, and the per capita meat consumption also rose from 8 kg in 1977 to 32 kg in 1994.The gap between China's fresh meat consumption and industrialized countries is constantly narrowing. However, looking at it comprehensively, although my country's indirect grain consumption has generally increased, there is still an obvious gap between urban and rural areas.Indirect food consumption in rural areas is still at a relatively low level.We might as well compare the following two tables: From the above we can see that the direct consumption of food rations is about twice as high in rural areas as in urban areas, while the consumption of meat in urban areas is twice as high as in rural areas, and the consumption of aquatic products and milk is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. About 3 times.

This is the situation as of 1991.According to the analysis of data in 1994, the per capita consumption of rations was 102 kg in cities and 257 kg in rural areas; meat consumption was still about twice as high in urban areas as in rural areas.From this, we can infer that with the increase of farmers' income level, farmers' animal food will have a greater increase process.If the meat consumption of rural residents only reaches the current urban level, 900 million farmers will also be a very large number.Unlike Brown, what he saw was the crisis of China's grain, while what we saw was the pressure on China's grain.As a socialist country, it is our expectation and duty to let farmers eat better and more nutritious food.We cannot deprive farmers of their consumption needs just because of food balance considerations.It can be said that in the era of Mao Zedong, the problem of having enough food for the Chinese people was solved, but today the People's Republic led by the Communist Party of China is responsible for satisfying the people's well-fed food.

Obviously, it is more difficult and more difficult to let the people eat well than to be full. It can be predicted that with the development of the economy and the gradual improvement of the people's living standards, the grain consumed directly by the Chinese will decrease, while the grain consumed indirectly through meat consumption will increase significantly.This will undoubtedly put a heavier pressure on China's grain production, but this is an inevitable trend of social development, a responsibility we cannot shirk, and a goal that Chinese people have dreamed of for generations.

Meat food is not only highly nutritious, but also has a good taste. Therefore, Chinese people regard whether there is meat on the table as a standard to measure their living conditions. However, cherries are delicious and difficult to plant, and meat is delicious but consumes a lot of food. Although the nutrient content per unit of animal food is much higher than that of plant food, for example, the protein and fat contained in a catty of meat are far more than the content of a catty of rice or flour, but per unit of animal The food that needs to consume of similar food is also much more than the food of the same unit of people's direct consumption.That is to say, the increase in meat food consumed by people corresponds to the increase in food consumed indirectly, and this increase is not a one-to-one relationship.According to the current level of our country, for every 1 jin of meat produced, 7 jin of grain (feed) needs to be consumed.In other words, every extra catty of meat we consume is equivalent to 7 extra catties of grain consumed.This also reflects that it is many times more difficult to get people to eat than to be full.

In fact, China’s consumption of meat products is mainly pork. In 1994, pork consumption accounted for 3/4 of the total consumption of meat products, so that China’s pork consumption is close to the level of the West, while many other countries mainly use beef and mutton. .Cattle and sheep can still be raised through pastures, while pigs are mainly raised on grain.In a country like ours with a large population, little arable land, and less than 400 kilograms of grain per capita, it is obviously unrealistic to develop too much pig production.In other words, it is inappropriate for us to pin all the increase in meat consumption on pigs.Analyzing the situation of my country's grain fluctuations in the past 10 years, we found that many times have a certain relationship with the development of pigs.Often when the grain harvest is good, the pigs will be vigorously developed; if the pigs are developed more, the food shortage will appear again.

Now, the Chinese government is consciously changing the meat structure of Chinese people and recommends increasing the consumption of chicken, eggs and beef.Because the current per capita pork consumption in my country is approaching that of the United States, but the intake of beef, chicken and dairy products cannot be compared with that of the United States.Chicken used to be a luxury in China, but the current per capita consumption is only 1/10 of that in the United States. Compared with pigs, chicken has a higher grain conversion rate. Generally, 2 kg of grain can be converted into 1 kg of chicken.Beef and mutton can be raised on pastures and pastures, with less food consumption. The development of cattle, sheep and poultry breeding is an important way for China to increase animal food consumption in the future.

In the case of insufficient food, Japan relies on seafood to provide animal protein.The consumption of seafood in Japan is 81 kilograms per capita per year, which is one of the countries with the highest consumption in the world, so that the current Japanese diet is represented by rice and fish.Japan salvages about 10 million tons of seafood from the ocean every year.Inspired by Japan, many countries have set their sights on seafood fishing, but until now, due to large-scale overfishing, marine fishery resources have approached biological limits.According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the catch of 17 major fish species has reached or exceeded carrying capacity, while nine species have begun to decline.Therefore, China's choice of Japan's path is clearly unfeasible. At present, China's demand for fish can only be met by aquaculture.At present, China's aquaculture industry now has an annual output of more than 6 million tons, but fish farming will bring new burdens to food production, because producing 1 ton of fish consumes about 2 tons of grain. Since the agricultural reform in 1978, the amount of grain used for aquaculture in my country has been increasing steadily, reaching 18 million tons in 1994, accounting for almost 23% of grain consumption. Now, the amount of grain used for aquaculture in China is second only to the United States , ranking second in the world.The United States is a country with a surplus of grain, with about 1,500 kilograms of grain per capita, and China has only 1/3 of their grain. Most of the grain is used to fill the stomach, and the grain that can be used to develop the breeding industry to increase meat consumption is quite large. limited.From this point of view, it is very unrealistic to expect my country's meat consumption to reach the level of some developed countries.We can only gradually increase the consumption of meat on the basis of ensuring that more than 1.2 billion people are fed, so as to improve the dietary structure of the Chinese people and improve the living standards of the Chinese people. If we want to achieve the current meat consumption in the United States, we need to increase food consumption by about 100 kilograms per person per year. According to the current development trend, there is still considerable difficulty.But this also shows that there is still a lot of room for growth in Chinese food consumption, and there is still a lot of demand pressure on China's food production.This may be a goal that we need to work hard for generations to achieve. We have repeatedly discussed that the problem of food is always the biggest problem for Chinese people.In the past, we worried about how to keep ourselves full, and now we have to worry about how to keep ourselves full and eat well. Obviously, we are now under more pressure and more tasks. We have made great efforts, but by 1997, China's per capita grain possession was still only 398.5 kilograms.This level also only solves to fill our bellies. But we are not satisfied with just filling our stomachs, so we need to continue to increase the per capita consumption of food.We imagined earlier that by 2000, when China declared to be a moderately prosperous society, our per capita grain consumption would reach 400 kilograms.Although there is still a certain gap with the production volume, we can import part of the grain from the international market to ensure that the Chinese people can eat well and eat well. In fact, this per capita grain consumption of 400 kilograms is also the lowest value we calculated in a hurry.We do not compare with those developed countries with surplus food, but the development experience of countries in the world shows that the food consumption structure has been greatly improved, and the per capita grain consumption must reach at least 500 kg; Grain consumption should not be less than 700 kg.This means that if we really want to be full and well-fed, the per capita grain consumption must reach the level of 500 to 700 kilograms. Obviously, there is a considerable gap between this and my country's grain production potential, at least at the current level of productivity, it is still difficult to balance. However, due to the unbalanced development among regions in our country, many regions have taken the lead in transforming to the stage of "eating good food".According to the survey, at present, the per capita grain consumption level in the three major cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai has reached 600 kilograms, which is not only more than 200 kilograms higher than the current level in my country, but also far higher than the planned consumption level in 2000. As a citizen of Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, I may not take it seriously: In the past, we used sacks to buy rice, but now we take a plastic bag every month, just like buying a bottle of soy sauce and rice vinegar. How can we buy a few catties of rice at a time? What about the level of consumption in kilograms?You know, 50 kilograms in one month! It is true that few people buy rice in large bags now, and the rice they buy every month is likely to be less than before.Most families feel that in the past, they were provided according to the plan, and each person had three or two meters per meal, and they were still a little nervous about eating.This has been confirmed by investigation.At present, the non-agricultural population in the three major cities of Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai consumes only about 200 kilograms of food rations per person per year, and only 17 to 18 kilograms per month, which is no more than six city taels a day. However, people who "don't eat" consume more food.Eating 1 catty of meat consumes 7 catties of grain, and drinking 1 catty of wine consumes 3 catties of grain.At present, the per capita consumption of meat in the three major cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai exceeds 60 kilograms, 20 percent higher than the national average, and 210 kilograms of grain is consumed indirectly, which is close to or even exceeds the grain eaten directly.In addition, the per capita alcohol consumption in these three cities is 17.6 kilograms, more than double the national average (7.4 kilograms), and correspondingly, each person consumes about 30 kilograms of wine-making grain. Not only in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, but also in Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan and other provinces, the per capita grain consumption is close to 500 kg, and the urban non-agricultural population exceeds 550 kg.Large grain-producing provinces such as Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, and Sichuan are not far behind, and have rushed to catch up with the momentum of "the first to get the moon". The per capita grain consumption has reached about 450 kilograms.Some other provinces and cities also began to exceed 400 kilograms.This sharp increase in grain consumption in some areas is also one of the reasons why my country's per capita grain possession is close to 400 kilograms, but there are still more than 40 million poor people who have not solved their food and clothing problems. In areas with rapid economic development and in some major grain-producing areas, grain consumption has increased, mainly through indirect consumption of meat.This is an irresistible consumption trend and an inevitable trend of transitioning from subsistence to well-off, which puts more pressure on us.Therefore, by the year 2000, our per capita grain consumption is likely to exceed 400 kilograms.Some people predict that according to the current economic development speed of our country, the per capita grain consumption needs to reach about 500 by then.We only calculate based on a population of 1.28 billion, and the total demand is 502.95 million tons, a difference of 137.05 million tons.Gao Ruosu, a professor at the Australian National University and former ambassador to China, provided a research report for the Australian Ministry of Foreign Affairs that, based on a population of 1.14 billion in 1990 and an annual growth rate of 1.3%, the population by 2000 will be 1.3 billion. Calculated by conventional growth (1.9%), the total demand is 547 million tons, 421 kg per capita; calculated by the high-speed growth of grain consumption (2.7%), the total demand is 592 million tons, 456 kg per capita.If the grain supply can reach 500 million tons, the gap in the conventional plan will be 50 million tons, and the gap in the high-speed plan will be 90 million tons. According to the forecast of the World Bank, by 2000, China's grain consumption structure will be roughly as follows: rations will account for about 45%, feed grains will account for 35%; industrial grains will account for 11%; seed grains will account for 3.2%, and new stocks will account for 0.2%. (an annual increase of 15 million people, based on 400 kilograms per capita, the reserve rate is 18%), and loss accounts for 4.6%. The year 2000 is approaching in no time. Judging from the current situation of grain production, it can basically keep a balance with grain demand. Some forecasts obviously exaggerate the grain consumption and underestimate the grain supply. In fact, there will not be a big gap, even if Some gaps can also be resolved by importing some grains appropriately.What we need to consider is that by 2030, China will enter the ranks of the world's moderately developed countries, and at the same time, the population will reach its peak. At that time, what will China's food demand be like? Scholars at home and abroad have made many predictions and studies on this, and they generally base their calculations on a population of 1.6 billion.This is basically consistent with the population peak forecast of my country's family planning department.Mr. Brown in the United States has made three calculations successively. Based on the population of 1.63 billion, the first calculation is based on 400 kilograms per capita, and the total demand is 651 million tons; the second is based on 425 kilograms per capita, the total demand is 735 million tons. ; The third is calculated on the basis of 478 kilograms per capita, the total demand is 735 million.According to his calculations, the grain supply at that time will be 20% lower than the current output, thus drawing three conclusions that the gaps are 378 million tons, 384 million tons, and 400 million tons.After analyzing the supply and demand relationship between China's provinces and varieties, the Development Assistance Research Institute of the Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan predicts that the grain gap will be 23.7 million tons in 2000, 68 million tons in 2005, and 13,500 in 2010. tons. In contrast, domestic research and forecasts are much more optimistic.Experts from the Economic Research Institute of the State Planning Commission predict that the population will be 1.294 billion in 2000, 1.394 billion in 2010, 1.53 billion in 2030, and reach a maximum of 1.56 billion in 2040; The yield per mu is 391 kg, the total output is 626 million tons, the per capita consumption demand is 450 kg, the total demand is 689 million tons, and the gap is 63 million tons. Research by experts from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences predicts that production will reach 660 million tons in 2000, 693 million tons in 2020, and 734 million tons in 2030, with a per capita consumption of 480 kg (of which 125 kg is for direct consumption).Based on this calculation, the gap in 2020 will be 33 million tons, and the gap in 2030 will be zero. Experts from the Chinese Academy of Sciences predict that by 2000, the lower limit of China's total grain demand will be 520 million tons, the upper limit will be 560 million tons, the lower limit of per capita consumption will be 400 kg, and the upper limit will be 430 kg. The Department of Agriculture and Economics of the State Planning Commission and the Agricultural Research Team of the National Bureau of Statistics predict that by 2000, China's grain demand will be 509.73 million tons, and the supply will be 495.96 million tons. In addition to the 1.5% loss in the storage and transportation process, the largest gap will be 21.21 million tons , accounting for 4.2% of total demand.Among them, the output of rice was 173.59 million tons, that of wheat was 119.03 million tons, and that of corn was 48.22 million tons.Rice will change from the current balance to a gap, the wheat gap will narrow, and the corn will turn from a surplus to a large gap. The China Economic Research Center of Peking University and the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture have also made similar research and forecasts on China's future grain demand.Based on various research predictions, they can be roughly classified into two types: low-scheme and high-scenario.The low program is 400 kg per capita, and the high program is 450 kg.By 2030, with a population of 1.6 billion, the demand for the low scenario is 640 million tons, and the demand for the high scenario is 720 million tons.If China's grain output per mu can reach 400 kg to 450 kg, and the sown area can maintain 1.6 billion mu, the total output can reach 640 million tons to 720 million tons, just equal to the demand.This is of course an optimistic and ideal plan, but it is by no means impossible. The key lies in how to ensure the grain sown area of ​​1.6 billion mu and how to increase the yield per mu to 400 to 450 kg. Whether it is the pessimistic forecast abroad or the domestic ideal research, they all illustrate a problem, that is, with the development of the economy, China's grain demand will gradually increase, mainly due to the increase in the indirect consumption of grain.This is an inevitable change after a country's economic development. It is an unchangeable fact and an irresistible trend.China's future food development goal is to meet the growing food demand of the Chinese people, which puts higher requirements and greater pressure on China's food production.In the case of very limited arable land, on the one hand, continue to tap the potential of food production, on the one hand, appropriately curb the excessive growth of food consumption, and at the same time prevent food waste, which is the most sensible choice for us at present. From the previous analysis, we already know that it is China's future food development goal to let people not only "eat enough", but also "eat well". "Eat enough" is easy to understand, that is to let people have food and eat enough.But what does it mean to "eat well"? What is the standard of "eating well"? Some people think that eating well is to let people eat nutritiously on the basis of being full. However, how to eat well and eat nutritiously?There are both national conditions and scientific issues.Some people say that to eat nutritiously is to eat more meat, especially chicken, duck, fish, especially fish, prawns, ginseng and bird's nest.Not to mention whether eating like this is in line with national conditions and personal income levels, even from a scientific point of view, this does not mean eating well and nutritiously.Now that some people are a little richer, they eat and drink indiscriminately, show off their wealth, and talk about ostentation, thinking that this means eating well, eating nutritiously, eating well, and eating well.In fact, it neither conforms to the national conditions nor respects science. Of course, Chairman Mao's eating standard of "eat dry when busy and thin when free" is no longer suitable for the current situation. It is only the minimum requirement to fill our stomachs.Today's Chinese people need to eat better and nutritiously on the basis of satisfying their hunger. However, how to eat well is not an easy task.In addition to paying attention to science, adapting to national conditions is also a prerequisite for eating well. In the current global food consumption structure, it can be roughly divided into three types according to the proportion of plant food and animal food.One type is based on plant food supplemented by animal food, which belongs to my country and most developing countries; the other type is based on animal food supplemented by plant food, and some developed countries in Europe and the United States belong to this type Most of them belong to this type; the third type is the type that pays equal attention to plant food and animal food, such as Japan. From the previous analysis, we already know that the first type belongs to the food and clothing type, the second type is the rich type, and the third type is the well-off type that we can learn from (of course, the reason why Japan adopts this type is not because they have not entered Wealthy society, but determined by their eating habits and food resource structure). There are two reasons why we choose this way: First, the people’s life in our country needs to transition from food and clothing to a well-off level. From the perspective of food structure, we must gradually increase the proportion of animal food and correspondingly reduce the proportion of plant food. Secondly, starting from the basic national conditions of our country, because animal food consumes a lot of food and costs a lot, and our country has a large population and limited arable land, it is impossible for per capita food consumption to reach the high or even surplus level of European and American countries, so the increase of animal food is only As far as we can, it is impossible to reach the consumption level of animal food and plant food in the short term as in European and American countries, and we cannot expect to reach the consumption level of animal food and plant food as in Japan soon, because we also have There is no advantage in Japanese seafood.Therefore, the ideal dietary structure in my country in the future is mainly based on plant food, but animal food occupies a relatively large proportion, and gradually develops in the direction of paying equal attention to both. This is not only a scientific choice, but also a realistic choice.China's national conditions with a large population and small land and the tight supply and demand of China's grain situation determine that China's grain consumption should be a mode of moderate consumption, a mode of gradually improving the dietary structure on the basis of being full.Unrealistic advanced consumption and irresponsible depressive consumption are not advisable. According to the analysis of experts on food issues, from the perspective of food consumption level, there are generally three modes of food consumption. One is the lagging consumption type, that is, the total amount of food consumption is obviously lower than the consumption quantity that society can provide.The deep-seated reason for the formation of this model is to restrain consumption, making consumption and growth lag behind food supply and growth.As a result, people's ever-increasing needs were not met, and laborers' enthusiasm for production was frustrated. On the other hand, there was a relative surplus of food, which affected the smooth progress of social reproduction.The second is advanced consumption, that is, the total food consumption is significantly higher than the consumption quantity that the society may provide, and exceeds the possibility of economic development.The reason for the formation of this model is the expansion of demand caused by the loss of control of consumption funds, and the expansion of aggregate demand will inevitably lead to an increase in food demand.The result not only raised people's expectation of life improvement without limit, but also caused an imbalance between food supply and demand.Under the condition of market economy, due to the effect of the law of value, the price of food rises, which further drives up the prices of other commodities, and finally leads to inflation.The third is moderate consumption, which is both quantitative and qualitative.From the perspective of quantitative regulation, the consumption level should maintain an appropriate proportion with the growth of national income and consumption funds, which is conducive to the balance between supply and demand of grain.From the qualitative point of view, the moderate consumption of grain is conducive to the rational allocation and full utilization of agricultural means of production, can maintain people's normal production and living needs, and is conducive to improving people's dietary quality and physical fitness. my country is a developing country with a large population and little arable land, which has become an unchangeable reality, which means that the contradiction between China's food supply and demand will exist for a long time.In this case, we can only advocate moderate consumption in food consumption.Specifically, as follows: First, maintain a relatively slow growth rate.With the development of my country's economy, the per capita national income will continue to increase.But as far as food is concerned, the rate of increase in its consumption level will not be very fast, but will increase slowly at a relatively low rate.This is determined by the supply and demand of food.There are many limiting factors for my country's grain growth, but the demand for grain is increasing.It is mainly reflected in two aspects, one is the continued increase in the population; the other is the increase in the consumption level of animal food among urban and rural residents and the change in the consumption structure.Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand of grain in our country will exist for a long time, which will inevitably limit the rapid increase of consumption level. Second, a diet based on grains.Under normal circumstances, with the continuous improvement of productivity and people's material living standards, the dietary structure will continue to improve, and animal foods will continue to increase.But starting from my country's national conditions, we can't expect to make great changes in the diet structure and quality of the people in a short period of time.Because the optimization of dietary structure is based on the per capita grain level.Based on the reality of my country's agricultural production, in adjusting the dietary structure of our country, we should still stick to grain-based foods and gradually increase the proportion of animal foods.It is neither realistic nor fully in line with Chinese dietary habits to blindly compare with the West, or even copy Western dietary patterns. Third, in terms of meat consumption, gradually reduce the proportion of pork and increase the proportion of beef and mutton.Affected by Chinese eating customs and farming models, the vast majority of China's meat consumption is pork.However, live pigs are food-intensive products, and it is difficult for my country's agriculture to support the excessive growth of pork consumption.Relevant materials show that except for some large-scale farms, the conversion ratio of concentrate to pork is generally 5:1 for most of the pigs raised by farmers, that is, it takes 5 kilograms to convert 1 kilogram of pork, and one head produces 80 A kilogram of live pigs will consume 400 kilograms of grain, which is equivalent to a person's annual ration.Given that the annual per capita grain consumption in our country is already very low, this is obviously not the direction of development.Poultry eggs, aquatic products, and herbivorous animal (cattle, sheep, and rabbit) meat are good substitutes for pork. As long as we guide and gradually reduce the proportion of pork in meat consumption, we will not only increase the intake of animal protein, but also It will not increase food consumption too much. From the perspective of the world situation, most of the meat consumption in many countries is grass-fed grain-saving animal products such as beef and mutton.From the perspective of nutritional value, every 100 grams of lean pork contains only 10.7 grams of protein, while that of chicken is 23 grams, and that of beef is 21 grams. State-of-the-art animal protein sources. Some people say that the emphasis on pork is the meat structure and eating habits formed in China for thousands of years. In fact, it is the only choice in the era of underdeveloped productive forces.In the past, the agricultural breeding technology was backward, the breeding of cattle, sheep, chickens and ducks could not be scaled up, and the commodity rate was very low. Every household had to raise a pig for the New Year. Coupled with the low living standards of the people, the only choice for people to improve their lives was to go to the streets to order pork.It can be seen that it is not entirely the eating habits that make the Chinese prefer pork, but because of the conditions at that time, they only choose pork.Now, my country's breeding technology has been greatly improved. The breeding of cattle, sheep, chickens and ducks has gradually become industrialized and large-scale. The breeding cycle is short and the breeding benefits are increasing day by day.Under such circumstances, it is both necessary and possible to vigorously develop the breeding of grain-saving animals such as cattle, sheep and poultry to guide consumption.In fact, people's meat structure has been gradually changing, and the proportion of consumption of beef, mutton and poultry eggs has increased significantly.According to statistics, the proportion of pork in my country's meat production has dropped from 95% in 1978 to 71%.Guangzhou City is a typical example.In the past, pork consumption accounted for 70% of the city's residents' meat consumption. In recent years, this proportion has dropped to 30%, while chicken, duck, goose, aquatic products, beef and mutton have risen to 70%.If the meat structure of urban and rural residents in our country is adjusted in this direction, it will not only effectively increase the meat consumption level of the Chinese people, but also alleviate the long-term shortage of pork in our country, and more importantly, reduce food consumption and stabilize the situation. my country's food needs.This is very important for a country with insufficient food supply.In this regard, our country has great potential to tap.According to experts' calculations, if 80% of the country's usable pastures are transformed into artificial pastures, more than 10 million dairy cows, more than 20 million beef cattle, and 200 million high-yield semi-fine wool sheep can be added, making my country's meat, milk, wool Production doubled.In addition, my country's sea area is vast, and seafood such as fish, shrimp, shellfish and algae and tidal flat resources are very rich. If it is further developed and utilized, the production of various seafood can be increased several times the current production. Fourth, expand the staple food channels.A reasonable dietary structure, in addition to the combination of meat and vegetables, should also be rich and varied in terms of staple food, combining thickness and thickness, and adjusting dryness and thinness.As we mentioned earlier, China's future dietary structure will still be dominated by grain-based foods, but this does not mean that our staple food is limited to grains.In fact, potatoes and soybeans are both nutritious and high-yielding crops, which can completely enter our staple food range. From the comparison of the staple food structure between China and foreign countries, the amount of potatoes consumed in my country is very small, while in the food structure of western countries, potatoes occupy an important position.Per capita annual potato consumption is 120 kg in the former Soviet Union, 99 kg in the UK, 63 kg in France, 82.5 kg in West Germany, and 38 kg in the United States.More potato consumption means less grain consumption, which is of great benefit to alleviating China's food shortage.my country's potato production areas are widely distributed, and the output is also high, but it is not put on the dinner table.Due to lack of due attention, China, as a big country with a population of 1.2 billion, ranks fourth in potato output after the former Soviet Union, Poland and the United States. Soybean is a high-protein plant, which is a good source of protein for countries where meat is scarce.my country is known as the "hometown of soybeans". It has a long history of cultivating and eating soybeans, and also has rich soybean product processing technology. For thousands of years, soybeans have been the main source of protein in the food of our people and an important edible oil. source.However, in recent years, due to my country's overemphasis on the production of grains and the neglect or even rejection of the development of soybeans, the area has shrunk sharply, and the output has dropped sharply, gradually losing China's unique advantages.China is the hometown of soybeans, which were later introduced to Europe and then to America from Europe.At present, the United States has become the world's largest producer and exporter of soybeans, Brazil in South America has become the second producer, and China has ranked third. Judging from the situation of some developed countries in the world, simply vigorously developing animal food has brought many disadvantages to these countries.In addition to consuming a lot of food, modern medical research has also confirmed that long-term consumption of animal food can easily cause a series of diseases of the cardiovascular system and endocrine system.Therefore, these countries are trying to reverse this bias.Their main method is to vigorously develop soybean planting and soybean product processing industry, thereby increasing the proportion of high-quality vegetable protein in the food structure.Among foreign food crops, soybeans are growing faster than any other crop.At present, the soybean planting area in the United States has surpassed other food crops, reaching more than 400 million mu, ranking first in the world, an increase of more than 50% compared with 10 years ago.In the world, from Sweden and Canada in the north to Argentina, Australia and New Zealand in the south, all countries are vigorously developing soybean planting.Compatible with production, the consumption of soy products has also increased rapidly. "Tofu craze" has been popular in Europe, America and Japan for many years.美国人将豆腐加上各种佐料，制成各种糕点、冰淇淋、汉堡包、面条等近百种快餐食品。日本则大力发展豆乳即豆浆生产，豆乳大行其道，颇有取代牛乳之势。 作为粮食供需紧张的中国，恢复和发展大豆的生产，显得尤为必要。在我们的膳食结构中，逐渐增加动物性蛋白食品的比重是必要的，也是可能的，但是我们不能消费过度，而必须量力而行。而在着力增加动物性蛋白质的同时，重视增加植物性蛋白质，是最现实的选择。根据这种膳食原则确定中国的粮食消费结构，并以此确定中国的养殖业发展方向，就既能满足中国人日益增长的粮食消费需求，又不脱离中国的粮食生产实际，达到二者的合理平衡。