Chapter 13 2. Human Sea Tactics: Difficult for Chinese farmers

7% of the arable land needs to feed 22% of the population. The earth is a big ship, carrying human beings in the vast universe and long history. How much space does China occupy on this big ship? 9.6 million square kilometers, this is the largest space allocated to China by the earth. However, in this cabin, deserts, Gobi, mountains, and glaciers, these "dead zones" that cannot accommodate human life, account for 1.92 million square kilometers; swampy areas occupy another 110,000 square kilometers. The proportion of high mountains in my country exceeds that of any other large country with a large population in the world.

my country's arable land area only accounts for 10% of the country's land, while neighboring India's land area is 3 million square kilometers, and arable land accounts for 57%. As early as 1994, China's cultivated land area was considered to be only 1.434 billion mu, but now some people think that this figure is not true, saying that it is at least 1.9 billion mu, and some say 2 billion mu.The newly established Ministry of Land and Resources has determined that China's current cultivated land reserve is 1.92 billion mu on the basis of the latest detailed land survey.Even with this figure, it only accounts for 7% of the world's total arable land.But we have to feed 22% of the world's population. It can be believed that the pressure on us is heavy, and the burden on China's arable land is heavy.This is China's unique national conditions, but also China's unique heavy burden.Our territory is only 56% of Russia's, but our population is nearly 10 times that of Russia.

A report released by the "National Situation Analysis Research Group" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences pointed out: "With the most severe ecological environment in Chinese history, it bears the largest population and the largest activity capacity in Chinese history." The Chinese nation has created a brilliant farming civilization. For nearly 5,000 years, the food production level has been at the forefront of the world. Although the population is also growing, the Chinese at that time relied on two ways to increase food production and successfully solved the food problem.One way is to expand the area of ​​cultivated land, which expanded by 19.4 times from the end of the Warring States period to 1949; the second way is to increase the level of grain yield per unit area.According to the analysis of De H. Perkins, a professor of economics at Harvard University, the contribution of the two to the increase in total grain output each accounts for about 50%.

But when it comes to our generation, the first way is almost non-existent, because the expansion of our country's cultivated land has almost come to an end.If we have to forcibly expand, including cutting down forests and reclamation of rivers and lakes, the result will be the destruction of the ecological environment, and we will suffer a heavier price.Some blind cultivation in our country in the 1950s and 1960s has already cost us an expensive tuition fee. From 1949 to 1998, during the 49 years, China's grain sown area has been hovering between 1.7 and 1.8 billion mu, the highest peak was only 2.004 billion mu, and it has been declining year by year since the 1980s. By 1994, it just fell again. By the level of 1949 - 1.64 billion mu, the per capita was only 1.36 mu. After 1995, it recovered somewhat, and by 1998, it reached 1.66 billion mu, barely maintaining the warning line of China's grain sown area of ​​1.65 billion mu.

Even if the arable land area is 1.92 billion mu, the country has a population of 1.236 billion, and the per capita is only 1.55 mu, which is less than 1/4 of the world average.The per capita arable land in Australia is 46 mu, Canada is 28 mu, Argentina is 14 mu, the United States is 13 mu, India is 3.6 mu, the Philippines is 2.5 mu, the Netherlands is 1.9 mu, and Germany and the United Kingdom are 1.8 mu. From the perspective of historical development, in the Han Dynasty, my country's cultivated land per capita was about 10 mu, and in the Tang Dynasty it reached a historical high of about 18 mu. In the Qing Dynasty, as the population soared from less than 100 million to 400 million, the per capita cultivated land area began Sharply reduced, suddenly dropped to less than 3 acres, and now we are only 1.55 acres.The national conditions of "one and a half acres" doom China's grain production and consumption will be a difficult task.

Nature has already doomed that China's arable land resources cannot be further expanded, and we are doomed to use this 1.5 mu of arable land per capita to feed ourselves.This is an unchangeable reality, and we can only adapt to it, not escape it. De Schie Perkins, a professor of economics at Harvard University in the United States, was very surprised that China's planted area is only 70% of that of the United States, but it supports a population that is three or four times larger than that of the United States. China's arable land is like a stretched rubber band, and there is not much room for expansion and contraction. Chinese farmers can only rely on their own hard work to obtain rich rewards on the limited arable land to support the growing population.

Facts tell us that Chinese farmers produce 17% of the world's total grain and feed 22% of the world's population on this 7% of the world's arable land. This is the pride of Chinese farmers! As early as the Tang and Song dynasties, China's grain yield per unit area and grain output per worker were firmly in the top spot in the world.In the Tang Dynasty, the grain yield per mu reached 167 kilograms, the per capita share of grain was 628 kilograms, and the per capita grain output per worker was 2,262 kilograms. Not only at that time, but also compared with some developed countries now.

If calculated according to the multiple cropping index, in the 1930s, China's grain yield per mu reached 158-124 kilograms, while that of the United States was 66.5 kilograms, and the yield of grain crops in North China was generally 60-85% higher than that of the United States. Of course, since the 18th century, driven by the industrial revolution in European and American countries, traditional agriculture has gradually developed into modern agriculture, and the level of agricultural production has been greatly improved.Correspondingly, China's agriculture is still stuck in the era of slash-and-burn farming, coupled with social unrest, frequent disasters, and continuous wars. On the eve of liberation, China's agriculture, especially grain production, slipped into a trough.

After liberation, the newly established People's Republic of China attached great importance to food production, especially Chairman Mao Zedong, who was born in a peasant family, put the problem of food for the Chinese people in a very prominent position. "Taking food as the key link" became the two slogans that were compared with "class struggle as the key link" at that time. From the central government to the local governments, a series of measures were taken to develop grain production.Especially after the reform and opening up, agricultural productivity has been greatly liberated, and food production has quickly broken through the long-term stagnant situation and entered a period of sustainable development.Looking at China's grain production in the past 50 years since its liberation, we can clearly see that my country's total grain production and yield per unit area have increased year by year despite no significant increase or even decline in cultivated land.This is also rare in the history of world food.

In 1949, China’s average grain yield per mu was only 85.5 kilograms. By 1952, it was only 88 kilograms. By 1988, it rose to 238.5 kilograms. In 1994, it reached 271 kilograms. In 1997, it reached 300 kilograms, a net increase of 215.5 kilograms, an increase of 3.5. times. In 1949, China's total grain output was 113.18 million tons, and it exceeded 200 million tons in 1958. Later, due to the impact of the "Great Leap Forward" and the impact of the three-year difficult period, it fell below 200 million tons for seven consecutive years. In 1966, it broke through 200 million tons again, and another 10 years later, in 1978, with the gradual implementation of the household joint production contract system, the total grain output exceeded 300 million tons, and in 1984, it exceeded 40,000 tons. After several years of adjustments , lingering, in 1996, it hit a record high, breaking through 500 million tons, reaching 504.5 million tons, and fell slightly in 1997, falling to 492.5 million tons. In 1998, although China suffered from historically rare floods, thanks to the hard work of farmers, the total grain output is expected to reach 495 million tons, which is higher than that of 1997 and second only to 1996, the highest year in history.

From 113.18 million tons to 495 million tons, China's total grain output has increased by 4.37 times. In the case of no increase in arable land, this cannot but be said to be another miracle created by Chinese farmers. From the perspective of average grain output, Chinese farmers dare to compete with farmers in developed countries.According to statistics in 1989 alone, China's average grain yield per mu was 258.5 kg, which was not only much higher than the average level of 151.5 kg in developing countries, but also 55 kg higher than the average level of 203.5 kg in developed countries.It is second only to France (403.5 kg), Britain (384.5 kg), West Germany (375 kg), Japan (379.5 kg), and is on par with the United States (298.5 kg).And China's wheat yield, even without considering the multi-cropping index, has already surpassed that of the United States.For example, in 1986, the unit yield of wheat in the United States was 154 kg per mu, while that in my country was 203 kg; the world average level of corn was 239.2 kg per mu, while that in my country was 247 kg. It can be seen from the above that although my country's grain production level is still far from the world's highest level, it has already far exceeded the world's average level and is in a leading position.For a developing country with a relatively low level of agricultural modernization, this is undoubtedly an extremely difficult task. ——We raise our hands for Chinese farmers! We have achievements worth showing off: 22% of the world's population is fed with 7% of the world's arable land. But we also have to blush: we used 400 million people to make food. At present, the world's agricultural population accounts for 54.7% of the total population, and the people engaged in food production account for the vast majority of the agricultural population.However, due to the different levels of productivity in various regions and countries, the proportion of the agricultural population to the total population has a large disparity. Africa has the largest proportion of agricultural population, with a total population of 460 million, of which agricultural population is about 292 million, accounting for 63.5%.Among the agricultural population, those engaged in food production accounted for another 180 million, accounting for 61.6% of the agricultural population.But even with such a large population for food production, due to low production efficiency and harsh climate, the food production is still obviously insufficient, so that most people are still in a state of hunger. Asia and Latin America also have larger agricultural populations.The total population of Asia is 2.5 billion, and the agricultural population is close to 1.5 billion, accounting for about 60% of the total population.Among the agricultural population, only 606 million are engaged in agricultural economic activities, and the remaining 59.6% are engaged in specific agricultural production, mainly grain production.The total population of Latin America is 359 million, and the agricultural population is 126 million, accounting for 35% of the total population. Among the agricultural population, 27 million are engaged in specific agricultural production, accounting for 40.4% of the agricultural population. For some developed countries, due to the high efficiency of food production, the number of laborers involved in food production is significantly lower than that of underdeveloped regions such as Asia, Africa and Latin America.The total population of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union is 375 million, and the agricultural population is only 72 million, accounting for only 19.2% of the total population.Moreover, among the agricultural population, 40 million are engaged in agricultural economic activities, accounting for 55.6% of the agricultural population, and only 44.4% are actually engaged in food production.The total population of Western Europe is 370 million, and the agricultural population is only 41 million, accounting for only 11.1% of the total population.Among the agricultural population, 17 million are engaged in agricultural economic activities, accounting for 41.5% of the agricultural population. The total population of Oceania is 17 million, and the agricultural population is only 1.1 million, accounting for only 6.5% of the total population.And 44% of the agricultural population is engaged in agricultural economic activities. The total population of North America is 240 million, and the agricultural population is only 6.21 million, accounting for only 2.2% of the total population.Moreover, among the tiny agricultural population, 46% are not directly engaged in food production, but engaged in agricultural economic activities. From the above, we can see that the agricultural employment population reflects the level of economic development of a country or region from one aspect. In 1952, there were 200 million laborers in our society, of which 173 million were agricultural laborers, accounting for 83.5%. This seems to be a big agricultural country that has just stood up from the oppression of imperialism, feudalism, and bureaucratic capitalism. No fuss.Regrettably, this pattern has not been broken for a long time. Until 1970, 80% of the labor force in the whole society was still engaged in agriculture.By 1998, there were still 60% of the labor force in the whole society and 75% of the rural labor force, that is to say, more than 400 million people were engaged in agricultural production.According to the results of the first national agricultural census, there are 560.85 million rural employees in my country, of which 424.41 million are engaged in agriculture, accounting for 34.34% of the country's total population and 75.67% of rural employees.In the United States, the grain produced by an agricultural labor force can feed 465 people, and in the United Kingdom, it can feed 126 people. In China, the grain produced by an agricultural labor force can only feed 3 people including myself.Therefore, in the United States, more than 90% of the population is engaged in non-agricultural production, while in China, 60% of the labor force is directly engaged in agricultural production to support their families. China's current agriculture is basically a labor-intensive traditional agriculture, the most typical of which is grain production, which mainly relies on a large amount of labor-intensive input, intensive farming, soil improvement, increasing the multiple cropping index, and planting high-yielding crops. So as to achieve the purpose of increasing grain yield.According to estimates, in 1952, each agricultural labor force cultivated an average of 12.5 mu of land in my country, but now, each agricultural labor force cultivates an average of 6.7 mu.The number of laborers per acre of wheat in China is 13 times that of the United States. It can be said that the hundreds of millions of tons of grain produced in China every year are entirely dependent on Chinese farmers working on the yellow land every day. The ones that were dug out, the ones that were dug out with one hand, were soaked in sweat and hard work. ——It’s hard for Chinese farmers! Regrettably, although a large amount of labor-intensive input has increased land productivity and food production to a certain extent, it has also reduced labor productivity at the same time.A sweat may not necessarily have a harvest.We have listed and compared the raw grains produced by each agricultural labor force in China. At the end of the Warring States period, it was 1,659 kilograms, and in the Western Han Dynasty, it was 1,789 kilograms. It increased to 2,262 kilograms in the Tang Dynasty. In the middle, it dropped to 1131 kg. 1949 was the lowest point: 700 kg.After liberation, my country's grain production has developed rapidly, and the grain yield per unit area and total grain yield have doubled. However, the grain yield per worker of the agricultural labor force, which reflects labor productivity, has not made a significant breakthrough.According to statistical calculations, in 1952, the per capita grain output of my country's agricultural labor force was 946.5 kg; in 1978 it was 1035.7 kg; in 1984 it was 1251.8 kg; in 1994 it was 1389 kg; After decades of "taking grain as the key link", the result is that the grain production per worker has just reached the level of the Qing Dynasty, which is not as good as the Warring States period of slash-and-burn farming. The Hexi Corridor is one of the 12 commodity grain bases currently under construction in China, and some studies have found that in such a commodity grain base, the amount of grain sent by farmers to the state treasury is only slightly higher than that in the heyday of the Tang Dynasty.In the heyday of the Tang Dynasty, the average yield per mu of grain fields along the Hexi Corridor was 76.5 kilograms today, equivalent to China's level in 1949.The total annual output is about 227,000 tons at present.During the Tianbao period, Hexi handed over 1,723,758 shi of grain to the country every year, and each household handed in an average of 29.01 shi, or 1,198 kilograms today.This figure is almost the same as the average amount of grain paid to the state by each peasant household in Hexi today.In other words, after 1,000 years, as a commercial grain base in China, the grain sent to the treasury by local farmers was only slightly higher than that in the heyday of the Tang Dynasty. It's not that contemporary farmers are not hardworking, but that the population has exploded and the arable land has plummeted, offsetting all our efforts.In fact, the grain yield per mu in the Hexi Corridor is nearly four times higher than that in the heyday of the Tang Dynasty, but because the arable land per household is less than 1/4 of that in the heyday of the Tang Dynasty, the grain yield per worker has not increased significantly.For this, can we blame the farmers in the Hexi Corridor? From the situation of per capita grain production, we can clearly see that the reduction of per capita arable land has made China's grain production difficult. At the end of the Warring States period, China’s per capita grain production was 460.5 kg; reached its peak in the Tang Dynasty: 628 kg; began to decline in the Song Dynasty: 579.5 kg; Ming Dynasty 559 kg; mid-Qing Dynasty 314 kg; by 1949 only 209 kg. After liberation, we worked hard and made tremendous efforts, but the rate of increase in per capita grain production was not satisfactory.By 1978, after 30 years, China's per capita grain output had broken through 300 kilograms, reaching 316.5 kilograms, an annual increase of only 3.7 kilograms compared with 1949. In 1984, the household joint production contract system achieved great success. Coupled with favorable weather conditions, the country’s grain harvests were generally bumper. The total national grain output reached 407.31 million tons, but the per capita grain production was still only 393.6 kilograms, which had just returned to the level of the middle of the Qing Dynasty. In 1993, China’s grain harvest was bumper again, with a total output of 456.44 million tons. However, with an average of 1.185 billion people, the per capita grain production dropped to 385 kilograms. In 1994, it dropped another 14 kilograms to only 370.9 kilograms. In 1997, the total grain output reached 492.5 million tons, but the population also reached 1.236 billion. On average, the per capita grain output was only 398.4 kg. After several years of hard work, our per capita grain output, except for 402 kilograms in 1996, not only failed to reach the goal of 400 kilograms in other years, but was farther and farther away from the goal. What is the reason? ——It's not that the land of China is not up to date! ——It’s not that Chinese farmers are not hardworking! It is the rapidly expanding population and the decreasing arable land year by year that have hindered China's grain production. According to the total grain output, China ranks first every year. In terms of grain yield per unit area, China not only exceeds the world average level, but also exceeds the average level of developed countries. But our population is too large, and our arable land is too little! As early as 1987, the per capita grain output of the United States reached 1143 kg, Canada 1997 kg, Australia 1838 kg, France 929 kg, and the former Soviet Union 711 kg.Comparing the average figures of the past 10 years, the per capita output of the United States is 3.4 times that of China, that of the former Soviet Union is 2.1 times that of China, and that of Canada is 5.9 times that of China. However, China's per capita arable land is only 1/19 of Canada, 1/9 of the Soviet Union, 1/8 of the United States, 1/3 of France, 2/5 of India, and 1/3 of the world's per capita arable land. Difficult for Chinese farmers, difficult for Chinese folks!With less than one and a half mu of arable land per capita, they not only feed the Chinese people, but also catch up with the world's advanced level of grain production.This is a miracle that is currently difficult for any country to achieve. On October 14, 1993, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations presented the World Food Award to He Kang, the former Minister of Agriculture of China, in recognition of his contribution to China's agricultural field. This is not only an affirmation of a former minister of agriculture, but also an affirmation of Chinese agriculture and Chinese farmers!