Chapter 7 third chapter

Seldon did not believe in seeing the Emperor at all.When he thought about it, at most he could only meet with an official of the fourth or fifth rank who claimed to speak on behalf of the emperor. How many people have seen the emperor?Seeing it with your own eyes, not through a holographic TV?How many people have seen the real, flesh and blood emperor?The emperor never left the palace and gardens, and he, Seldon, was stepping on this land at this moment. The answer is close to zero.Two or less five million inhabited worlds, each with at least a billion inhabitants—among these tens of trillions of people, how many people have or will witness this living emperor?a thousand people?

Who cares?The Emperor is nothing more than a representation of the Empire, like the "Starship and the Sun" coat of arms, but far less universal and authentic.The Empire now was represented by warriors and bureaucrats scattered across the galaxy; it was they who became a burden to the people, not the Emperor himself. Therefore, when he was shown into a room of modest size and richly furnished, he saw a young man sitting on the corner of a table in an alcove with a window, touching the ground with one foot and dangling with the other on the edge of the table. , Seldon couldn't help wondering how such an official looked at him with such gentle eyes.A fact that he has repeatedly experienced himself is that government officials—especially those who are around the emperor—always look very serious, as if they bear the weight of the entire galaxy on their shoulders.And it seems that the less important the official, the more serious and ferocious his expression.

Then, this person may be a high-ranking official.The power he really wants to hold is like the bright sunshine, so he doesn't have to use his gloom to face problems. Seldon didn't know how flattered he should appear, but he felt he had better keep silent and let the other party speak first. "I believe you are Hari Seldon, the mathematician," said the official. Seldon replied in the simplest way: "Yes, Your Excellency." He continued to wait. The young man waved his arm: "You should say 'Your Majesty', but I hate red tape. I'm always spinning around in red tape, which makes me very tired. No one else is here now, so I'm going to indulge and throw away all the red tape. to the back of your head. Sit down, Professor."

Halfway through the other party's speech, Seldon realized that the other party was King Cleon I, which made him feel a little out of breath.The Emperor himself (as it now appears) bears some resemblance to the formal holograms that often appear in the news, but Kryon in the holograms is always well-dressed and seems a little taller and more dignified than himself.And his face was cold and expressionless. Now that he appeared in front of Seldon, his true face of Lushan was quite ordinary. Seldon didn't move. The emperor frowned slightly.He was so accustomed to bossing around that he wanted to relinquish the privilege, at least temporarily, but said imperiously: "Hey, I say 'sit down.' That chair, come on."

Seldon sat down in silence, unable even to say "Yes, Your Majesty." Kryon smiled slightly. "It's so much better. Now we can talk like two fellow citizens, after all, that's what our relationship is, stripped of all red tape. Ah. Don't you?" Seldon replied cautiously, "If His Majesty the Emperor likes to say that, then he must be right." "Oh, come on, why are you so cautious? I want to talk to you as an equal, and it pleases me to do so, so just follow me." "Yes, Your Majesty." "Just a simple sentence of 'obedience' is enough. I really can't make you accept it?"

Kryon stared at Seldon, and Seldon felt the eyes full of life and interest. Finally, the emperor finally spoke again: "You don't look like a mathematician." Seldon was finally able to smile: "I don't know what a mathematician should look like, Your Majesty the Emperor..." Kryon raised a hand in warning, and Seldon swallowed the honor quickly. "I think a mathematician should have gray hair, maybe a beard, and of course a lot of age," Kryon said. "But even mathematicians are always young." "But at that time they were all unknown, and when their fame spread throughout the galaxy, they will be what I described."

"I'm afraid I'm not famous." "But you spoke at a conference held here." "Many people were on stage, some younger than me, and only a few got noticed." "Your speech apparently attracted the attention of some of my officials. From what I understand, you believe that predicting the future is possible." Seldon felt suddenly tired.There seemed to be a constant misunderstanding of his reasoning, and maybe he shouldn't have published that paper at all. "Not really," he says. "I'm getting much narrower results. A lot of systems have a situation where, under certain conditions, there's chaos. That means, for a particular starting point, we It is impossible to predict later outcomes. This is true even for some fairly simple systems, and the more complex the system, the more likely it is to become chaotic. We have always assumed in the past that something as complex as human society would, in a very short period of time, become chaotic and therefore unpredictable. What I have done, however, is to demonstrate that, when studying human societies, it is possible to choose a starting point and make an appropriate set of assumptions in order to suppress the effects of chaos and make predictions about the future possible .Of course not complete details, but a general trend; not absolutely certain, but the probability can be calculated.”

Emperor Jing, who had been listening carefully, asked at this time: "But, doesn't this mean that you explained how to predict the future?" "Again, not quite. I proved that it's theoretically possible, but that's about it. To go any further, we have to really pick a right starting point, make the right set of assumptions, and then figure out where A way to do calculations in finite time. In my mathematical argument, there is absolutely no mention of how this should be done. Even if we could do it all, at best we can only estimate probabilities. This is not the same as predicting the future, it is just Guessing possible future events. Every successful politician, businessman, or person in any profession must be able to estimate the future, and estimate it fairly accurately, or they will not be successful."

"They didn't use math." "Yes, they rely on intuition." "Estimating odds can be done by anyone with the right mathematical tools, not just the few successful people with excellent intuition." "True, but I only proved that this mathematical analysis is possible, not that it is actually possible." "If a thing is possible, how can it be impractical?" "Theoretically, I can visit every world in the galaxy and greet everyone in every world. However, it will take a long time to complete this work, far exceeding my lifetime. Even if I can live forever, the new generation The birth rate is also greater than the rate at which I can visit the older generations. What's more, many older generations die before I have time to visit them."

"Have you encountered a similar situation in your mathematical theory of the future?" Seldon hesitated, then continued: "This math may take too long to complete, and even if we had a computer the size of the universe, it wouldn't help at hyperspace speeds. Before getting any answers , the years have passed, and the situation has changed enough to render this answer meaningless." "Why can't the process be simplified?" Kryon asked in a sharp tone. "Your Majesty the Emperor," Seldon responded in a more formal manner, feeling that the Emperor's tone became more formal as the answers became more and more off-putting. "Think about the way scientists deal with subatomic particles. There are huge numbers of those particles, each of which moves or vibrates in random, unpredictable ways. But there is an order underlying this chaos, so we can create quantum mechanics, using to answer all the questions we know how to ask. When we study social phenomena, we put human beings in the position of subatomic particles, the difference is that at this time there is an additional variable, which is the human mind. Particles are Humans do not move in a mindless way: trying to take into account the attitudes and impulses of the mind adds so much complexity that we simply don't have time for all of them."

"Is there an underlying order in the mind like the unintentional movement of particles?" "Perhaps. According to my mathematical analysis, there must be order beneath everything, no matter how chaotic it may appear on the surface. But it gives no hint at all how to find out this underlying order. Think about it— —Twenty-five million worlds, each with an overall character and culture, each vastly different from the others, each containing at least a billion people, each with a separate mind, and all of these The world interacts with combinations in countless ways! No matter how theoretically possible psychohistorical analysis is, it has few practical applications." "What do you mean by 'psychohistory'?" "I call the theoretical probability estimation of the future psychohistory." The emperor got up suddenly, strode towards the other end of the room, then turned around, strode back, and stopped in front of Seldon who was still sitting. "Stand up!" he ordered. Seldon quickly stood up, looked up at the emperor who was a few centimeters taller than him, and managed to keep his gaze steady. Kryon finally spoke: "This psychohistory of yours... If it can become practical, it will be of great use, won't it?" "Obviously it would be of great use. Knowing what lies in the future, even in the most approximate and probabilistic manner, would provide us with a new and excellent guide to our actions, which no human being has ever Understood. But, of course..." He stopped short. "How is it?" Kryon asked impatiently. "Well, it seems to be the case that, except for a few policymakers, the results of psychohistorical analysis must be kept secret from the general public." "Secret!" Kryon exclaimed loudly. "It's so obvious, let me try to explain it. If we do a psychohistorical analysis and make the results public, human emotions and responses will be distorted immediately. In this way, the psychohistorical analysis will History becomes meaningless. Because it's based on the emotions and reactions of people without knowing the future. Do you understand what I'm saying?" The emperor's eyes lit up suddenly, and he laughed a few times: "That's great!" He reached out and patted Seldon's shoulder, causing Seldon's body to shake slightly. "You man, can't you see?" Kryon said, "Can't you see? That's what you're for. You don't have to predict the future at all, just choose a future—a good future, a useful one. Then make a prediction that changes the emotions and responses of all humans so that that future you predict will come true. Instead of predicting a bad future, create a good future.” Seldon frowned: "I understand what you mean, Your Majesty, but this is also impossible." "impossible?" "Well. Unrealistic at least. Can't you see? If we can't start from human emotions and reactions and predict the future that these factors will lead to, then we can't do the opposite. We can't start from a choice. starting from a given future, and predicting the human emotions and responses that would lead to that outcome." Cleon looked rather frustrated, his lips pressed together tightly. "And what about your thesis? . . . Do you call it a thesis? . . . What's the use of it?" "It was just a mathematical argument. It made a conclusion that was interesting to mathematicians, but I never thought it would have any practical use." "I find this repulsive," Kryon said angrily. Seldon shrugged slightly, now more certain that he should never have published that paper.If the emperor had an idea that he had become the object of fooling others, what would happen to him? In fact, Kryon looked like he was on the verge of such an idea. “But then again,” he said, “if you make some predictions about the future, whether they are mathematically sound or not, they are predictions that will lead to useful responses, as judged by government officials who understand the trends of the population. What do you think?" "Why do you need me to do this? Government officials can make these forecasts themselves, without a middleman." “Government officials won’t be that effective. They do make some of these statements occasionally, but people don’t necessarily believe them.” "Why do you believe me?" "You're a mathematician, you figure out where the future is going, not...not intuition—if you can call it that." "But I don't." "Who would know?" Kryon narrowed his eyes at him. A short silence followed.Seldon felt that he had been tricked. If the emperor gave him an order directly, could he refuse?If he refuses, he may be imprisoned or executed.Of course there will be no trial, but in the face of an authoritarian bureaucracy, especially a totalitarian bureaucracy under the command of the emperor of the Galactic Empire.It is even more difficult to obtain a fair market judgment. Finally, he finally replied: "This will not work." "why?" "If I were asked to make some vague general predictions that would have to wait until our generation, or even the next generation, to come to fruition for many years, then we might be able to muddle through. But, on the contrary, the public would not care either. For a It is impossible for them to care about a major event that will happen two centuries later." "In order to be fruitful," continued Seldon, "I must predict events with definite consequences, events that are near at hand, and only such predictions will receive a public response. But sooner or later—maybe not sooner but sooner. —one of the predictions will not come true, and my usefulness will end immediately. In doing so, your reputation will also disappear. Worse, no one will support the development of psychohistory in the future, even if the future Mathematical advances can improve it to a point close to being practical, and it will never have a chance to show itself again." Kryon sat down abruptly, frowning at Seldon. "Is this all you mathematicians can do? Hold on to the impossible?" Seldon tried to speak softly, "It is you, Your Majesty, who have insisted on the impossible." "You man, let me test you. What would you say if I asked you to use your math to tell me if I was going to be murdered someday?" "Even if psychohistory is taken to the extreme, my mathematical system is still unable to answer such a specific question. The quantum mechanics of the world cannot predict the trajectory of a single electron, and the only thing that can predict is the average behavior of many electrons." "You know your math better than I do, so make a reasonable guess based on it. Am I going to be assassinated someday?" Seldon replied softly: "You are setting a trap for me, Your Majesty. Just tell me what answer you want to hear, and I will tell you the answer, otherwise authorize me to answer Nan Not to be guilty." "Just say it." "You keep it with honor?" "Do you want me to make a note?" Kryon said sarcastically. "Your verbal pledge of honor will suffice." Seldon's heart sank, for he wasn't sure what the outcome would be. "I pledge it on my honor." "Then I can tell you that almost half of the emperors have been assassinated in the past four centuries. From this, I deduce that your chances of being assassinated are about one in two." "Any fool could come up with that answer," said Kryon scornfully. "It doesn't take a mathematician." "But I have told you several times that my mathematical theory is useless for practical problems." "Can't you assume that I have learned a lesson from those unfortunate late emperors?" Seldon took a deep breath and said vigorously: "No, Your Majesty, history shows that we cannot learn any lessons from history. For example, you allow me to have a private audience here, what if I have the intention to assassinate? In fact, Of course not, Your Majesty." He hastened to add. Kryon sneered: "You man, you didn't consider how perfect our technology is, or how advanced it is. We have studied your background and your complete resume. After you arrived, you were scanned, and you Your description and voiceprint have been analyzed. We know your detailed emotional state, almost your thoughts. If there was even the slightest doubt about your loyalty, you will never be allowed to approach me. In fact, if this is the case, You can't survive now." Seldon felt dizzy for a while, but he continued: "Even without such advanced technology, it is always difficult for outsiders to get close to any emperor. However, almost every assassination is a coup in the palace, and the emperor who poses the greatest threat is the most People who are close to the emperor. If you want to seek good luck and avoid bad luck, it is actually useless to investigate outsiders. As for your own officials, your own guards, and your own cronies, you can't treat them the same way you treat me." Kryon said: "I know this too, at least as well as you. My answer is that I am very good to everyone around me, so that they have no reason to resent me." "Stupid..." Seldon shut his mouth suddenly, looking very embarrassed. "Go on," Kryon said furiously, "I've given you free rein to express your opinion. How stupid am I?" "I slipped my tongue, Your Majesty. What I meant to say was 'irrelevant', which has nothing to do with how you treat your cronies. You must be suspicious, or it would be inhuman. A casual word—such as I just said Your performance, an inadvertent action, and a suspicious expression will definitely make you more vigilant and take back a little trust. Any suspicion will cause a vicious circle. Change his demeanor so as not to make you suspicious again. You too will notice the change, and become more and more suspicious, until either he is executed or you are assassinated. All the emperors of the last four centuries, all There is no way to avoid such a process. It is only one of the symptoms that imperial affairs are becoming more and more intractable." "Then I can't avoid being assassinated anyway?" "Yes, Your Majesty." Donton said, "However, on the contrary, you may also belong to the lucky half." Kryon tapped his fingers on the armrest of the seat in turn, and then said sharply, "You, you are useless at all, and neither is your psychohistory. Let me go." After saying these words, the emperor turned his head Driving away, he suddenly seemed much older than his actual age of thirty-two. "I said long ago that my mathematical theories are of no use to you, Your Majesty. My deepest apologies." Seldon was about to bow, but two guards somehow picked up the signal and stepped in just in time to pull him away.There was also a sentence from Kryon in the imperial study room: "Where this person was brought from, send him back there."