Chapter 2 Chapter One

"I repeat, Harry," said Hugo Amariel, "your friend Demerzel is in big trouble." He said this with a slight emphasis on the word "friend" and his tone was clearly dismissive. . Hari Seldon could hear the implication but didn't care.He looked up from the 3D computer and said, "Then I'll say it again, that's bullshit." Then—with a touch of annoyance, just a touch—he added: "Why do you come and say this Are you wasting my time with nonsense?" "Because I think it's very important." Amaril sat down proudly.That meant he wouldn't be dismissed so easily.They come, the security.

Eight years ago, he was a hot tub worker in Dal - the lowest rung of society.It was Seldon who took him out of there, making him a mathematician, an intellectual—and more importantly, a psychohistorian. He has never forgotten his roots, and he knows that he must drink water and think of the source.That is to say, when he had to say something unpleasant to Seldon for Seldon's benefit, he would say it bluntly, and never considered whether it would damage the respect for the old man or How does doing so adversely affect your future.He owed Seldon these harsh words—he owed Seldon so much. "You see, Harry," he said, waving his left hand in the air, "perhaps for some reason beyond my comprehension, you think highly of Demerzel, but I don't think much of him. In fact I No one I respect has anything positive to say about him - except you. Personally, I don't care if he lives or dies, Harry, but as long as you do, I have no choice but to tell You, remind you to pay attention."

Seldon smiled, half to thank the other party for his enthusiasm, and half to understand that his concern was of no avail.He likes Hugo Amarel very much - it should be said that far beyond like.Hugo was one of four people he met during his brief escape on the planet Trantor in his early years—Itur Demmerzel, Dors Venabili, Hugo Amariel, and Ricky—he had a special affection for these four that he hadn't found in anyone else since. All four of them in particular were indispensable to him in different ways—in the case of Hugo Amarol, for his quick grasp of the principles of psychohistory and his expertise in new fields. Extraordinary insight.This was a great relief to Seldon, because he knew that if something happened to him, and the mathematics of psychohistory hadn't been fully resolved—God knows how slow it was, how big the obstacles—at least there was another Good minds can continue this research.

He said: "I'm sorry, Hugo. I don't mean to bother you, and I don't want to disappoint your kindness, no matter what you are so eager to make me understand. But I have my job, and my job is to be a good department head— " This time it was Amarel's turn to laugh: "I'm sorry, Harry, I shouldn't have laughed, but you are not really talented in this position." "I know that, but I have to learn to do it. I have to do things that seem inviolable, and there is nothing in the world that is more indisputable than being the head of the mathematics department at the University of Stirling. I could fill up my entire work day with trifles so no one would bother asking about the progress of psychohistory, but unfortunately, I do fill my entire workday with trifles schedule, so that I don’t have enough time—” He glanced at the data stored in the computer in the office, these things were carefully encrypted into a set of original symbols, and only he and Amarel had the secret Key, even if other people see it, they can't understand it.“Once you have a solid grasp of what you do, you can completely delegate it to someone else so you have the time,” says Amarel.

"I hope so," said Seldon hesitantly, "but tell me, what is so important about Itur Demerzel?" "Simply put, that Itu Demozir, the prime minister of our great emperor, is busy brewing an uprising." Seldon frowned. "Why would he want to do such a thing?" "I didn't say he wanted to do it. But he's doing it - whether he knows it or not - and his political enemies are obviously having fun with it. That's okay with me, you Yes. In my opinion, it would be best to take this opportunity to drive him out of the palace, out of Trantor...even out of the empire. But you think highly of him, as I said, so I remind you , because I suspect that you are very alienated from the current political situation."

"I have more important things to do." Seldon replied politely. "It's like psychohistory. I agree. But if we don't know anything about politics, how much hope do we have of developing psychohistory? I mean current politics. Now—now—is Time from the present to the future. We can't just study the past. We know what happened in the past. Only by studying the present and the near future can we test our calculations." "It seems," said Seldon, "that I have heard such arguments before." "You will continue to hear such arguments in the future. It seems that I have wasted my words on you." Seldon sighed, sat back in his chair, and looked at Amarel with a smile on his face.The young man may have some work to do, but he's completely serious about psychohistory—and it's something he's cultivated.

Amaril still retains the vestiges of his early days as a hot slotter.He had the broad shoulders and muscularity of a man who has done hard physical labor.He also never allowed his body to slack, which was a good thing, because it also motivated Seldon to resist the temptation to spend all his time at his desk.Although he doesn't have the absolute physical strength of Amarel, he still has the talent he once had as a gladiator-even though he is forty years old, it is impossible to keep it like this forever.But at least for now, he's going to keep it going for a while.Thanks to his daily physical exercise, his waist is still straight and his limbs are still strong.He said: "You can't be paying attention to Demerzel just because he is my friend. You must have other motives."

"That's obvious. As long as you remain a friend of Demerzel's, your position at the University is secure and you can continue your psychohistorical research." "That's right. So I do have good reasons for wanting to be his friend. It doesn't seem beyond your comprehension." "If your interest is only to win over him, then I can understand. But as a friendship—that's not what I can understand. Anyway—once Demerzir loses power, the result may directly affect your Kryon will then take power himself over the Empire, and the rate of Empire decline will be greatly increased. Anarchy may befall us before we can derive all the connections of psychohistory, and using this science to The hope of saving the entire human race will be dashed."

"I understand.—but you know, I honestly never thought we'd be able to finish psychohistory in time to prevent the collapse of the Empire." "Even if we can't prevent the crash, at least we can reduce its impact, can't we?" "Maybe." "This time it's your turn to hit the nail on the head. The longer we work in peace, the better our chances of preventing a collapse, or at least improving its impact. And now the example is there, and in the long run , maybe we need to save Demerzel, whether we—or at least I—like it or not." "You said just now that you would be glad to see him cast out of the Palace, out of Trantor, and even out of the Empire."

"Yes, say what I want, that's what I say. But we can't live what we want, and we need our Prime Minister, even if he is a machine for repressing rebellion and enforcing tyranny." "I see. But why do you think the removal of a Prime Minister will make the Empire more prone to disintegration?" "Psychohistory." "Do you use it to make predictions? We don't even have a framework yet. What kind of predictions can you make?" "People have instincts, Harry." "People are always intuitive. But we need something more or less, don't we? We need a mathematical process that can give us the possibility of certain future developments in one situation or another. If light Intuition is enough, so let's not do psychohistory at all."

"It's not an either/or question, Harry. I'm talking about both: combined, it's probably better than either in isolation - at least until psychohistory is perfected." "Even so," said Seldon, "but tell me, where is the danger for Demerzir coming from? What kind of danger is likely to turn against him or remove him? Are we talking about someone trying to overthrow Demerzir? Er?" "Yes," said Amarel with a serious face. "Then tell me. Pity me for my ignorance." Amarel blushed, "You are condescending, Harry. You must have heard of 'Jojo' Joronan." "Of course. He's a demagogue—wait, where's he from? Nishia, right? A very unremarkable world. Shepherd's, I think. Produces high-quality cheese." "Right. But he wasn't just a demagogue. He had a strong following and he was growing. His goal, he said, was for social justice and for people to be more to gain political influence.” "Yes," said Seldon, "I have heard that too. His slogan is: 'Government of the people.'" "Not quite, Harry. What he said was: 'The government is the people.'" Seldon nodded. "Yes, you know, I feel the same way about that." "Me too. If Jo Ruonan really wanted that, I would be all for it. But he's not, he's just seeing it as a stepping stone. For him it's just a path, not a goal. He wants to get rid of Dammerz And then he can easily play with Kryon in his hands. Later he puts himself on the throne, and he himself becomes the people. You told me yourself that such events in the history of the empire It has happened many times—and in those times the Empire was weaker and more unstable than usual. A blow that could only slightly shake the Empire in earlier centuries could now destroy it completely. The Empire would be plunged into civil war and There's never recovery, and we don't have the psychohistory to guide us in what to do when the time is right." "Yes, I understand your point, but Demerzel is obviously not so easy to get rid of." "You don't know how powerful Qiao Ruonan has become." "It doesn't matter how powerful he grows." A thoughtful shadow crossed Seldon's brow. "I wonder why his parents named him 'Jojo'. That name sounds a bit childish." "It's none of his parents' business. His real name is Raschin, a common name in Nishia. He chose the name 'Jojo' himself, presumably from the first syllable of his surname. " "It makes him look even stupider, doesn't it?" "No, I don't think so. His followers yelled his name—'Jo...Jo...Jo...Jo'—over and over again. It was quite demagogic." "Okay," Seldon said, returning to his 3D computer and adjusting the multidimensional simulation it displayed, "Then we'll see." "How can you be so careless? I tell you that the danger is imminent." "No, that's not it," said Seldon, his eyes hard and his voice suddenly hard. "You don't know the whole truth." "What truth do I not understand?" "Let's discuss this issue later, Hugo. Now go back to your work and leave Demozel and the status quo of the Empire to me to worry about." Amarel's lips were tightly closed, but the force of habit of obeying Seldon was still stronger: "Yes, Harry." But the force was not overwhelming after all.He turned again at the door and said, "You're making a mistake, Harry." Seldon smiled slightly: "I don't think so, but I have heard your warning, and I will not forget it. Don't worry, everything will be fine." When Amarel left, Seldon's smile faded too. —Really, will everything be all right?