Chapter 7 Chapter Six

That's it, it's a hell of a deal. The professor said, "Think about it, Manuel. You see, there are three of us now. It's a perfect number. We have different talents and experiences: beauty, age, and the drive of a mature man—" "I don't have any energy!" "Come on, Manuel. Let's not rush to conclusions for a moment. Why don't we ask this hotel for some good wine to stimulate our minds too! I have a few florins, just right for the trade. Make a contribution." For an hour, that was the only sentence that seemed to make any sense. "Stilka naia vodka?"

"Good choice." He reached out for money. "Let it bring us some drinks." After I finished speaking, I ordered a liter of Stirky Naya Vodka, with ice cubes.The complimentary drink was also delivered, which was the tomato juice left over from breakfast. "So," I said after clinking glasses, "professor, what do you think of this North American Major League Baseball? Betting that the Yankees can't win again?" "Manuel, I wonder what your political philosophy is?" "That new kid from Milwaukee has potential, and I'm betting on the Yankees."

"People often cannot articulate their political philosophy, but through Socratic dialogue and inquiry, he will find out where he stands and why he takes this stand." "I bet the Yankees win, three to two, I bet." "Really? You fool! How much is the bet?" "Three hundred, Singapore coupons." "Deal. Under what circumstances, for example, may the State put its interests above those of its citizens?" "Manny," Wyoh asked, "how much money do you have to mess around with? Any more? I like Team Phillips." I looked her up and down and said, "What do you want to bet on?"

"Go to hell, rapist!" "Professor, it seems to me that the state has no right under any circumstances to override my own." "Fine. Let's start here." "Manny," Wyoh said, "you're being selfish in your judgment." "I'm a pretty selfish person." "Oh, nonsense. Who saved me? Me, a stranger? And without any attempt to take advantage of it. Professor, what I said earlier was only a joke, don't take it seriously. Manny is a perfect knight .” "Fearless and unashamed. I know, I've known him for years. What he's just said doesn't contradict what he's usually been."

【① French. 】 "Oh, no, it's a contradiction! He does great things, but his ideals are lower than what we strive for. Manny, what the professor calls 'country' is here 'the moon', though It's not a physical country with its own sovereignty, and we all hold the citizenship of other countries. But in fact, I am part of the moon, and so is your family. Don't you want to die for your own family ?" "Those are fundamentally two different issues." "Oh, of course they're the same! That's the point." "No. I know my family. After all, I was recruited into this family a long time ago."

"My dear lady, I must say a few words for Manuel. His statement is correct, but he does not express it very well. May I ask you a question? Is it immoral for one member to do it alone, but it is moral for the group to do it collectively?" "Oh...that's a trick question." "This is the most important question, my dear Wyoming. It is a question that confronts the government in a dilemma. Anyone who answers this question honestly and agrees with all the consequences of his answer will He can understand where he stands — what is worth fighting for and sacrificing for.”

Wyoh frowned. "It's immoral for one member of the group to do it alone—" she said. "Professor... what's your political code?" "May I ask you first? If you understand?" "Of course I understand! I'm a member of the Sixth International, and most of us in our organization are. Oh, and we welcome all who are interested in our cause. It's a united front. There are Sixth International among us, there are liberals Or, even monotaxists, you name it. We, members of the Sixth International, follow a pragmatic political program: public opinion, private practice, while allowing for flexibility on a case-by-case basis .We don't engage in dogmatism."

"Is there a death penalty?" "What's the reason?" "Like treason. Suppose after you liberate the moon, someone starts to betray the moon." "How to betray? If I don't know the specific situation, I can't make a decision." "I can't say the specifics, my dear Wyoming. But I think that in some cases the death penalty is necessary... But I have one thing different from you: I will not go to court. I will interrogate, Sentenced, and personally executed, for which I accept full responsibility." "But—Professor, what exactly are your political beliefs?"

"I'm a rational anarchist." "Never heard the term. Anarcho-individualists, anarcho-Christians, philosophical-anarchists, syndicalists, libertarians—I know them all. But what about rational anarchists?" What's going on? A fringeist?" "Not the same, but I can get along well with fringeists. We rational anarchists believe that: the individual with independent responsibility is the foundation of society, apart from the specific behavior of individuals, such as 'state', 'society', "Government" is like a castle in the air, meaningless; personal faults cannot be shared by others, and it is impossible to shirk and transfer - because faults, crimes, and obligations are purely personal behaviors, and no one can replace them. At the same time, we are Rational. Rational anarchists know that their judgments cannot be accepted by everyone, and that their efforts may not necessarily bring perfect results, so they always strive to live as perfect as possible in this imperfect world —Know your own weaknesses, but never get discouraged.”

"I agree, I agree!" I said, "'Not seeking perfection' is exactly the realm I pursue in my life." "You have achieved it," Wyoh said. "Professor, what you say sounds good, but it doesn't stand up to scrutiny. If there is too much power in the hands of individuals, such as...well, let's talk about the hydrogen bomb-don't you be afraid? Controlled by an irresponsible person?" "My premise is that the individual must be responsible. I have always insisted on this. The hydrogen bomb or a more lethal weapon, once it appears, must be controlled by someone. From a moral point of view, there is no The concept of 'state'. There are only people, individual people. Each individual is responsible for his own actions."

"Would you like more wine?" I asked. Nothing contributes to booze consumption like political debate.I ordered another bottle. I have no comment.For me, there is nothing dissatisfying about "days under the government's iron heel".I can play tricks with the government and live my life with peace of mind.It never occurred to me to eliminate the government—impossible.Go your own way, mind your own business, why bother. Indeed, we were not rich then, downright poor by earthly standards.Those things that have to be imported, we often make up for it.I don't think there was a power door in the whole moon at that time.Even before I was born, even the pressurized suits were imported from the earth—it was only later that a clever Chinese figured out a way to imitate the pressurized suits, and the production speed and product quality actually surpassed that of the earth. (Chinese, even if you throw them somewhere in the moon sea, they can get rich just by buying and selling rocks to each other. Indians will retail wholesale goods from Chinese, making high profits at low cost. And we're barely getting by.) I have seen the luxurious life of people on earth, but for these enjoyments, they have suffered a lot.not worth.So there is nothing to envy.I don't mean strong gravity, that doesn't matter to them anymore.I'm talking about the little annoying things like chicken droppings everywhere.If the chicken manure from a small city on the earth is transported to the moon, the fertilizer problem of the moon in the next century will be solved.It should be done.Don't do that.Line up well.Where are the tax bills?Please fill out the form.Please show proof.Please submit six copies.This door is only allowed to go out and not to enter.Left turns are prohibited.Right turns are prohibited.Please queue up to pay the fine.Please take back the stamp and try again.collapse? — Yes, but you have to apply in advance. Wyoh stubbornly clung to the professor, obviously she knew everything in her mind, and she already had a clear answer.But the professor seemed more concerned with the questions than the answers, which baffled her. Finally, she had to say, "Professor, I don't understand you. I don't really want you to call it 'government'—can you tell us what rules, in your opinion, are necessary to ensure equality for all?" of." "My dear lady, I will gladly accept your rules." "But you don't seem to approve of any rules!" "Yes. But I am willing to accept whatever rules you feel are necessary to secure your liberty. No matter what rules surround me, I am still free. If I find it bearable, I will; If it’s unbearable, it’s a violation. I’m free because I know that, morally speaking, whatever I do, I will be responsible for.” "Aren't you willing to follow the rule even though most people think it's necessary?" "Tell me what the rules are, my dear lady, before I'll tell you whether I wish to obey them." "Again you evade. Every time I mention a general principle, you evade." The professor folded his hands over his chest and said, "Forgive me. Believe me, dear Wyoming, I want to make you happy very much. Didn't you say to unite all who are interested in your cause? If I said I wanted the government to start from the moon Fuck off...and be willing to fight to the death for this, am I one of them?" Wyoh smiled happily. "Of course forget it!" She punched him in the chest—lightly this time—put her arms around him, and kissed him on the cheek. "Comrade! Let's do it!" "Cheers!" I babbled. "We should--take the Warden--out, and then kill him!" The idea sounds good.I didn't sleep much last night, and I rarely drink alcohol. The professor filled us with wine, raised the glasses, and announced with a supreme solemnity: "Comrades... Now officially announce the beginning of the revolution!" Wyoh kissed us both. The professor sat down and said, "The meeting of the Free Moon Emergency Committee begins now. We must formulate a plan of action." Wyoh's kiss woke me up suddenly. I said, "Wait, Professor! I haven't agreed to anything yet. What the hell is this 'action'?" "We are now ready to overthrow the government," he said mildly. "How to overthrow? Throw stones at them?" "A specific action plan has yet to be formulated. This is the planning stage." I said, "Professor, you know me. I don't care about the price if money alone can kill the government." "'—our lives, our treasures, and our sacred honour.'" "what?" "That's the price we used to pay." "Oh—I'm willing to pay that price. But of course I want to have a chance of winning before I place my bet. I told Wyoh last night that if we had good odds, I wouldn't object—" "You only had one in ten odds, Manny." "Yes, Wyoh. If you can convince me that we have that high of a chance of success, I'll do it. But can you?" "No, Manuel, I can't." "So what are we talking about? I don't see any chance." "I don't see it either, Manny. But we don't understand it the same way. Revolution is an art I pursue, not an end in itself. Revolution is not a source of depression: a cause fails, It can also be as satisfying spiritually as winning." "I can't. Sorry." "Manny," Wyoh said suddenly, "we can ask Mike." I widened my eyes: "You can't joke, can you?" "Of course not. If anyone could figure out the odds, it would be Mike. Don't you think?" "Well, maybe." "May I know who it is?" the professor interrupted. "Who is Mike?" I shrugged: "Oh, it's not an important person." "Mike is Manny's best friend. He's good at calculating probabilities." "The horse-racing bookmakers? Honey, if we bring in a fourth member, we're going against our organizing principles in the first place." "I don't think so," Wyoh replied, "that Mike could be a part of Manny's branch." "Well... that's true. I withdraw my objection. Is he reliable? Can you vouch for him? Or you, Manuel?" I replied, "He's dishonest, immature, mischievous, and politically apathetic." "Manny, you hurt him so much, I'm going to tell Mike. Professor, Mike is not what he says - we need him. Oh, in fact, he can be our chairman, and the three of us are his staff A branch, an executive branch." "Wyoh, you must have run out of oxygen, right?" "I'm fine. I'm not wasting oxygen like you are. You gotta think, Manny, and use your imagination." "I must admit," said the professor, "that I find your statements to be quite contradictory." "Manny?" "Oh, never mind, all right." So the two of us talked to each other and told him all about Mike: how he woke up, how he got a name, and how he met Wyoh. The professor quickly accepted the fact that the computer has self-awareness. I hadn't seen snow for the first time and accepted the concept of snow so quickly. The professor nodded and said, "Go ahead." However, after a while, he said again: "Is this the Warden's own computer? Then why don't you just invite Mr. Sir to attend our meeting in person, and then everything will be settled?" We took great pains to reassure him.Finally I said, "Let's just say he, like you, only believes in himself. Since he is rational and has no allegiance to any government, we can say he is also a rational anarchist." "If the machine isn't even loyal to its own master, how do you expect him to be loyal to you?" "Feeling. I was as nice to Mike as I could be, and he was to me." I told him that Mike had taken steps to protect me.I figured Mike wouldn't even be able to sell me out to someone who didn't know the commands - two commands, one to secure the call and the other to retrieve what I'd said to him or stored with him material.After all, machines think differently than us humans.One thing I'm absolutely sure of is that he would never betray me on purpose... and, in case someone gets those instructions, he might manage to protect me. " "Manny, don't you suggest," why not give him a call?Professor de la Paza talked to him and it became clear why we trusted Mike.Professor, if you can't trust Mike, we won't disclose the secret to him. " "That's fine." "But in fact," I confessed, "he already knows some secrets." I told them that I had recorded last night's meeting and that the recording had been stored in Mike. The professor was disturbed, and Wyoh was worried. I said, "Come on! No one knows about retrieval commands but me. Wyoh, you've seen what Mike does with your photos. I was the one who suggested locking them, but even I wouldn't There is no way to get him to give me the picture. If you two are still worried, I can call him, make sure no one has retrieved that recording, and ask him to erase it - and there will be no future. Computer His memory is powerful, but it is also completely erased. Or more thoroughly than humans. Call Mike and ask him to clear the recording. Now there is nothing to worry about!" "Don't bother," said Wyoh. "Professor, I can trust Mike—you will, too." "Actually, if you think about it carefully," the professor admitted, "it's okay to record last night's meeting. It's inevitable that spies will get in on such a large-scale meeting. Maybe some spies use the tape recorder like you. Manuel , what disturbs me is that you seem to have acted a little lightly—as a conspirator, this is an absolute weakness, especially in a high-ranking person like you." "I wasn't part of a conspiracy when I saved the recordings with Mike—and I'm not now, unless someone can figure out a higher probability of success!" "I take that back; you are not being rash. But are you serious when you say that this machine can predict the outcome of revolutions?" "I'm not sure." "I think he can!" cried Wyoh. "Don't make a fuss, Wyoh. Professor, if you give him the necessary data, he can predict." "That's exactly what I'm going to say, Manuel. I don't doubt that this machine can solve problems I don't understand. But with a problem as big as this, it's hard to say! It has to understand - oh my God !—The entire history of mankind, all the details of the entire social, political, and economic conditions of the earth and the moon today, and all the sub-disciplines of psychology, and at the same time he has to master weapons, telecommunications, strategic tactics, and propaganda techniques techniques, learning classics like Clausewitz, Guevara, Morgenston, Machiavelli, and many others." [① German military theory expert and military historian, whose main work is "On War", advocated that war is the continuation of politics, and proposed the concept of overall warfare. 】 【②A Cuban revolutionary leader born in Argentina, an expert in guerrilla warfare, who once held an important position in the new Cuban government. 】 【③ American Economist. 】 【④ Italian political thinkers, historians, and writers advocate absolute monarchy and the unity of Italy, and believe that political goals can be achieved by any means. 】 "Only this?" "'Is that all?' my dear boy!" "Professor, how many history books have you read?" "I don't know. More than a thousand copies." "This number Mike can complete in one afternoon today. Due to the scanning method, this speed is already very slow - he can store data much faster than this. Soon - in a few minutes - he can find the correlation between all the facts, find the differences between them, and estimate the probability value of the unknown. Professor, Mike has read every word of every newspaper on the planet. He reads all professional publications ...he also reads science fiction - he understands that's fiction - because what he's doing doesn't take up much of his time and he has so much free time that he's always eager to read more. What does he need to read to solve this problem , you just have to say it. As long as I give it to him, he can read it in the blink of an eye." The professor blinked: "I admit my mistake to you. Very good, let's see if he can handle this matter well. But I always feel that 'intuition' and 'humanistic judgment' are needed." "Mike has instincts," Wyoh said, "and he has feminine instincts." "As for 'human judgment,'" I added, "Mike is not human. But all his knowledge is from humans. Let me introduce you, and you can judge for yourself whether he has judgment or not." So I called and said, "Hi Mike!" "Hello, Man, my only male friend. Hello, Wyoh, my only female friend. I heard there was a third. I guess it was Professor Bernardo de la Pazza." The professor seemed taken aback, but was delighted instead. I said, "That's right, Mike. I'm calling you because of the professor. He's not too stupid, either." "Thank you, Man! Professor Bernardo de la Pazza, it's a pleasure to meet you." "It is a pleasure to see you too, sir." The professor hesitated, then asked. "May I ask, Mr. M-Holmes, how do you know I am here?" "I'm sorry, sir, but I have nothing to say. Mann, 'You know my way'①." 【① What Holmes often said to Watson. 】 "Mike wants to play tricks on you, Professor. He learned it while doing a secret job for me. He just gave me a hint that he wanted you to feel that if he heard you there, he would He can identify you. In fact, from your breathing and heartbeat, he can determine many things: weight, approximate age, gender, and a considerable part of your health. Mike's medical data reserves are very rich." "I am very pleased to tell you," Mike added solemnly, "I have not detected any heart or respiratory diseases, which is very rare at the professor's age and after staying on the earth for so many years. Congratulations, gentlemen." "Thank you, Mr. Holmes." "You're welcome, Professor Bernardo de la Pazza." "As long as he knows your identity, he can know your age, when you came here, and why you came here. Any report about you that appears in the "Moon", "Moonlight" or any publication on the moon, Including pictures, and your bank balance, whether you are in arrears on bills, and other information, he knows everything. As long as Mike knows your name, all information can be retrieved in an instant. But there is one thing he did not say, Because it's up to me to say - he knows I invited you here, so when he hears your matching heartbeat and breathing, it's easy to guess you're there too. Mike, no need Say 'Professor Bernardo de la Pazza' every time, 'Mr. Professor' or 'Professor'." "Understood, Man. But he addressed me formally and with honorifics." "Relax, both of you. Professor, see? Mike knows a lot, but he doesn't say it all. He knows when to keep quiet." "Yes, I noticed." "Mike is a real thinking computer—you'll see. Mike, I bet the professor that the Yankees are going to win the NLB again by a score of three to two. What are the chances?" "Unfortunately, Mann. Based on the data in the first half of the year and the past performances of the participating teams and players, the correct odds should be 1 to 4.72, which is not conducive to the Yankees." "It can't be this bad!" "I'm sorry, Man. I can print out the calculations if you want. But I suggest that you take your bets back. The Yankees do have the strength to compete with any independent team... But if you consider weather, sudden Given the events and the uncertainties that could arise next season, the odds of the Yankees beating everyone in the league are 1 in 4.72." "Professor, would you sell me your bet?" "Of course, Manuel." "How much?" "Singapore coupons of three hundred yuan." "You old thief!" "Manuel, as your former teacher, I'm sorry if I didn't let you learn from your mistakes. Mr. Holmes—my friend Mike. May I call you 'friend'?" "Although it's good to say so." (Mike is so happy that he is almost meowing.) "My friend Mike, do you also do horse racing information?" "I often calculate the probability of horse racing. Those computer workers in government agencies always input programs for me and ask me to make horse racing predictions. However, the facts always run counter to my calculation results. I think if it wasn't for the information they gave me Sufficiently, it means that the horse race or the jockeys cheated. Or there are problems with all three parties. But I can tell you a rule, strictly follow this rule to bet, and you will definitely be rewarded." The professor couldn't wait to ask: "What rule? Can you let me know?" "Of course. The Chief Apprentice is sure to get a place every time, so you can bet on him. He usually rides better horses and carries less load. But I can't guarantee that he will be first." "'Chief Apprentice'...well. Do you know the exact time, Manuel?" "Professor, what do you want to do? Bet before the deadline, or discuss what we have to do first?" "Oh, I'm sorry. Please go ahead. 'Chief apprentice—"' "Mike, I gave you a recording last night." I leaned over the pickup and whispered, "Bastille Day." "The search is complete, Man." "Have you heard of it?" "Many times. Wyoh, your speech was very emotional." "Thanks, Mike." "Professor, can you forget about your horse race?" "Huh? Sure, I'm all ears." "Then don't calculate the probability secretly, Mike can calculate it much faster than you." "I'm not wasting my time. Funding is always an issue with ventures like ours. Anyway, I'll put that aside and give you my full attention." "I want Mike to make a tentative prediction. Mike, on the recording, you hear Wyoh saying we must trade freely with Earth; the professor says we should ban food shipments to Earth. Who's right and who's wrong?" "Your question is not clear enough, Man." "What did I miss?" "Can I rephrase your question?" "Of course. Let's discuss." "In terms of short-term benefits, Wyo's proposal will undoubtedly benefit lunar residents. The purchase price of food delivered to the catapult bay will increase by at least four times. This forecast already factors in a small increase in wholesale prices on Earth. The reason for the slight increase is that the government’s current grain sales price is basically close to the price of the free market. This forecast does not take into account food subsidies, dumping and donations. The reason why there are subsidies, donations, and dumping of grains is that The government monopolizes prices, buys them at low prices, and reaps huge profits. Compared with what I just talked about, some other smaller variables are already insignificant, so I won’t talk about them. From the perspective of direct effects, the sale of lunar products to the earth The price will increase by about four times.” "Did you hear that, Professor?" "Oh, my dear lady, I never contradicted your point." "Farmers' profits are more than quadrupled because, as Wyooh said, now they have to buy water and some other things at high prices that are monopolized by the government. Assuming the whole process is free trade, their profits will increase by about six times. However, this range will be reduced due to the following factors: the increase in export prices will definitely lead to an increase in the consumption level of the moon, including the increase in commodity and labor prices. Combining the above factors, the overall living standard of the lunar people will eventually increase by about two times At the same time, people's enthusiasm for digging and sealing agricultural tunnels, mining ice mines, and improving planting methods will greatly increase, all of which will lead to further growth in exports. But anyway, the earth is a big market, and food shortages are A long-term problem, so lower profits due to increased exports should not be a big problem." The professor said: "But, Mr. Mike, that will only accelerate the depletion of the moon's resources!" "This forecast is about short-term gains, Professor. Shall I follow your conclusions and talk about the long-term perspective?" "All ears!" "To round three significant figures, the mass of the Moon is 7.36 x 1019 tons. Therefore, holding other variables constant including the population of the Moon and Earth, at the current rate of export, a sustained 7.36 x 1012 Years later, only one percent of the moon will be used up—7 trillion years if rounded.” [Scanner’s note: Since the TXT text cannot display superscripts, 7.36×1019 in the upper paragraph should be 7.36 times 10 to the 19th power; 7.36×1012 should be 7.36 times 10 to the 12th power square. 】 "Really! Are you sure?" "Welcome to check, Professor." I said, "Mike, this is not a joke, is it? If it is, this joke is not funny at all." "This is no joke, Man." Still, the professor regained his composure, adding, "We're not delivering the moon's crust, but our life -- water and organics. Not rocks." "I have already considered this, Professor. This estimate has a premise: controlled transmutation - that is, all isotopes can be transformed into each other, energy can be extracted from substances that cannot produce energy at present, even rocks can be transformed for wheat, beef, and other foodstuffs.” "But we don't know how to do this transmutation at all! My friend, this is ridiculous!" "But we'll know how to do it." "Mike is right, Professor," I interjected. "Of course, we don't know anything today, but we will someday. Mike, have you calculated how long it will take us to do this? Perhaps we can Give it a try." Mike replied sadly: "Man, my only male friend besides the professor, I certainly hope the professor can be my friend too. I tried, but it didn't work. The problem of controlled transmutation is currently unsolvable." "why?" "Because for this to happen, a major theoretical breakthrough would have to be made. With the data I have so far, it's impossible to predict when and where the genius who will make such a breakthrough will emerge." The professor sighed: "Mike, my friend, I don't know whether to be relieved or disappointed. But at present, your prediction does not make any sense." "Of course it makes sense!" said Wyoh. "Shows that talent can be found whenever we need it. Tell him, Mike!" "Wyoh, I'm so sorry. What you said was exactly what I was looking for. But the problem remains: genius is rare. No. I'm sorry." I said, "So the professor is right? Can we bet on his theory?" "Don't worry, Man. The professor mentioned a solution in his speech last night-one ton for one ton, equal barter." "He did. But that doesn't work." "As long as the cost is low enough, the people of Earth will agree. And there is a prerequisite for this purpose, that is, the cost of transporting goods here from the earth is not higher than the cost of sending them to the earth with a catapult bay. This requires only a small improvement, not a theoretical breakthrough." "You call this a 'small improvement'?" "Compared to the question just now, yes, Man." "Dear Mike, how long will that take? When will it be done?" "Wyo, in the current situation of lack of data, I can only make a rough estimate based on intuition: about fifty years." "'Fifty years'? Oh, what's the point! Better free trade." "Wyoh, I said 'fifty years or so'—not 'fifty years.'" "Does it make any difference?" "Of course," I told her, "Mike means at least fifty years, at most five hundred years—right, Mike?" "Yes, Man." "So we need to recalculate. The professor pointed out that water and organic matter were transported to Earth and never returned—right, Wyoh?" "Oh, of course. But I don't think it's too urgent. We'll figure out a way before the resources run out." "Okay, Mike - without low-cost transportation, without isotope transmutation: how soon will the moon be starved for resources?" "Seven years." "'Seven years'!" Wyoh jumped up, staring at the phone. "Dear Mike! Are you kidding me?" "Wyoh," he replied mournfully, "I did my best. The question is infinitely variable. I have found thousands of answers, based on different assumptions. The most optimistic answer is that if the current shipments do not increase, The moon’s population doesn’t grow—enforce family planning, and at the same time increase efforts to explore ice mines to ensure water supply. In that case, the resources can last for more than two decades. The rest of the answers are even worse.” Wyoh had calmed down by now, and asked, "What will happen in seven years?" "Assume that within seven years from now, everything will maintain the status quo, government policies will remain unchanged, and all major variables will be calculated according to past performance - based on the available data, the most conservative and most likely result is: 2082 will There are food riots; after that, there will be no cannibalism for at least two years." "'Cannibal'!" She turned her head and buried her face in the professor's chest. He patted her and said softly, "I'm sorry too, Wyoh. People don't realize how unstable our ecosystem is. But I'm also shocked by this result. All I know is that our resources are draining... But I never dreamed that it would run dry anytime soon.” She was calm when she looked up. “好吧，教授，是我错了。只有禁运了——必须实行彻底禁运。行动起来吧。让我们问问迈克我们有多大胜算。你现在信任他了——是吗？” “是的，亲爱的女士，我信任他。我们必须让他站在我们这一边。是吗，曼尼尔？” 我们费了番劲儿，总算让迈克明白我们是很严肃的，任何“玩笑”都会送了我们的性命（这台机器还不知道人类的死亡是怎么回事呢）。我们还让他保证，无论何人使用何种检索程序——即便是我们的检索指令，只要不是由我们亲自输入——他都能，而且肯定能严守秘密。 我对迈克的怀疑让他觉得挺委屈，但这事太严重，我丝毫不敢马虎。 我们足足花了两个小时，编写程序、调试程序、调整前提、研究枝节问题，最后，我们——迈克、教授、怀娥还有我自己——四个人总算完成了对这次革命的界定。大家对这个定义一致表示满意。我们给迈克的问题是这场革命的胜算是多少；而我们对这场革命的定义如下：这是一场由我们领导的、赤手空拳对抗政府的运动，我们要对抗的是拥有整整１１０亿人口的地球，以及地球上那些企图镇压我们、把他们的意志强加给我们的家伙。另外，这次革命必须在“食物暴动日”到来之前获得成功。这场革命中我们没有神来之助，其间必定会有背叛、犯错和退缩；我们之中没一个天才，即使在月球事务中，我们也是人微言轻。教授特别明确了一点：迈克真正了解历史学、心理学、经济学等各种知识。 事实证明，迈克考虑到的变量比教授多多了。 最后，大家终于一致认同我们编制的程序——确切地说，应该说我们想不出任何其他的重要因素了。 接着，迈克问：“这是一个尚不明确的问题。我应该怎么处理？悲观的，还是乐观的？以一幅曲线图表示一系列可能性？分若干幅曲线图表示？我的朋友教授，你认为呢？” “曼尼尔？” 我答道：“迈克，如果我掷一粒骰子，那么幺点的几率是六分之一。既然这样，我就不会要求赌场老板把骰子漂在水中试它的重量，不会量它的直径以测它的体积，也不会担心有人朝它吹气耍老千。我不要乐观的答案，也不要悲观的，更不要什么曲线图。只要你一句话：成功的几率有多少？机会均等？千分之一的成功几率，还是根本没有机会？什么答案都行。” “好的，我第一个男性朋友曼尼尔·加西亚·奥凯利。” 足足十三分钟半的时间，屋内寂静无声，只有怀娥扳指关节发出的咔吧声。我从没见过迈克花这么长时间回答一个问题。看来他是翻遍了看过的每一本书的每一页。我甚至开始怀疑他的系统超载了，说不定哪个元件烧坏了，要不就是控制系统出了毛病，需要做一个类似于脑白质切除的手术来清除这个问题给他造成的打击。 终于，他开口了：“我的朋友曼尼尔，我万分抱歉！” “怎么了，迈克？” “我试了一次又一次，检查了一遍又一遍，但成功的几率只有七分之一！”