Chapter 14 A Little Heroic Image of Harry in the Night-2

In the Republican Party, the famous figures at that time were Thomas Dewey, Harold Stasson ("driving the sculls, breaking the waves, the best man is Stasson"), General Douglas MacArthur, Halleck, Vandenberg, Taft ("For the job, appoint Bob or Robert's nickname, which is Taft's name.—Translator" and "To steer the helm, choose Taft"), Earl Warren and Joseph Martin Jr.Joe McCarthy and Richard Nixon of Wisconsin also attended the convention, but were minor figures.McCarthy was just one of Stason's representatives when he was in the Wisconsin caucuses.Nixon also supported Stassen, but at that time he was only in attendance, and his status was low, and he was not even qualified to be a representative of California.But the question on which they later made a fuss has been raised here.Stassen wanted to outlaw the Communist Party, which voters in Oregon saw no reason in the primary.But at the congress, the keynote speaker on behalf of the Republican Party declared: "We will find out and clean out the red elements and pink elements among the employees of the federal government."

Dewey had suffered several defeats since announcing his candidacy on January 15, or, more precisely, having a young Jim Haggerty announce the decision on his behalf.However, among the Republican presidential candidates, he still leads.He tended to leave these so-called vulgarities to other people, saying that he preferred to concentrate on important problems.In fact he spends a lot of time worrying about his appearance.His toothbrush beard and stiff demeanor reminded one of the cops in the Keystone silent films, the Keystone Comedy Company silent films, mostly about clumsy cops and gangsters fighting wits. — the translator, or the portrait on the wedding cake.During the pre-selection, some photographers persuaded him to put on a tall ten-gallon hat and the Indian headdress worn by Queen Mary of Romania when she visited the United States in the 1920s, and took some photos. .He regretted it.There was some bitter gossip about his lukewarm attitude: "You hate him because you know him well." But this statement is also unfair.

It was accidental, and unfortunate for Dewey, that Stadtson became Dewey's rival that spring.Dewey was five-foot-eight, Stassen was six-foot-three, and they happened to have a photo together during a break during the pre-qualifiers, looking like a grown man with his son.When it came time for the congress, Dewey put on a pair of specially made platform shoes.However, that image has been formed before.In addition, Dewey was even more troubled when he did not expect Stasen to get so many votes in the primary election.MacArthur candidates had been expected to win in Wisconsin, given the general's massive campaign budget and the fact that the state is filled with his sketchy biographies: "MacArthur: A God-given Hero," "MacArthur: Freedom Fighter" and "The Great MacArthur". On March 29, the leading headline in The New York Times speculated: "MacArthur's victory in Wisconsin is imminent." The next day, the delegates supporting the general received only eight votes in the state convention.So Senator McGrath, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, told reporters: "This leads me to the conclusion that to guarantee a Democratic victory in November, all commentators must be unanimous in predicting defeat." The reporters They all laughed politely, and the chairmen of the National Congress also had their own jokes.

Although Dewey came from behind in Oregon on the eve of the national convention, the general Republicans did not favor him.According to a Gallup poll at the time, nationally registered Republicans thought the Minnesota giant was better than Dewey, 37 percent to 24 percent.With such numbers in the polls, it would have been worth a better study by Dewey.The dapper New Yorker had been elected by one of two Republicans the previous summer.Now that the prestige has dropped so badly, he should have been vigilant, especially since the Democratic Party has become the majority party in the country under the leadership of Roosevelt.After he became a candidate, he should have gone on the offensive against the Democrats.Unexpectedly, his speech accepting the nomination coaxed the representatives to doze off.

He said: "The solidarity we demand is not just material, not just specific things and measures, but most importantly spiritual. Our problems do not exist outside ourselves, but in the within ourselves." After he and his vice presidential nominee, Earl Warren, let photographers take pictures, he went home to rest.He remained in Albany until September 19, when the election was only six weeks away.Thus, as The New York Times put it, his campaign "has spent the least amount of time of any major opposition presidential candidate in recent years." It seems he sees the campaign as little more than a matter of form.And other Republican leaders agree.A few strong republicans, thinking they were about to be part of a new government, went home from their convention in Philadelphia via Washington, and bought good houses at low prices before their colleagues arrived.

"The actions of the Democrats are like coming here to attend a funeral." The Associated Press said when reporting on the ruling party's congress on July 12.In the heat of Philadelphia, delegates ambled into the Great Hall as if in a steam room.The flag, which was brightly colored three weeks ago, is now stained and stained.A banner hung high that said, "America is pleasant with Truman," but hardly anyone looked at it.The convention distributed Truman "victory bags" containing a notebook, a pencil and a whistle.Some people said: "It's for going to the Democratic Party cemetery!" On the porch of Belvedere Stratford Hall, a robotic donkey was installed, flashing eyes made of blue light bulbs to passers-by , but this is the only thing that embellishes the joyful atmosphere of the venue.The representatives all had sullen faces, as if they had been tortured.The anti-Truman state representatives, who had just recovered from the failure of the campaign to mobilize Eisenhower, are now desperately struggling, so there is still a little bit of activity, but that is to avoid the third round of failure, just looking for a life-saving straw.On the eve of the election, the heads of delegations of the 19 states held a secret meeting.They wanted Supreme Court Justice Douglas as their candidate.He refused to do it, and they had no choice but to die.Then Truman also called Douglas and asked him to be the vice presidential candidate, but he said he would not do it either.At this time, it seemed that the president could not even find a candidate for the vice president.In the end, Alben Buckley, good old Albon, said he would be happy to run.

Truman really lost face.He knew the majority of the delegates didn't want him, and if he announced now that he wasn't a candidate for president, they'd give a standing ovation and quickly pick someone else.Henry Wallace looked certain to get several million votes, that is, enough to cost him the New York State vote.Now, the southern states, which are Democratic strongholds, are also on the brink of division.Young (37) Minneapolis Mayor Humphrey, Illinois Democratic senators and gubernatorial candidates Douglas and Adlai Stevenson spearheaded a strong civil rights platform for adoption by the convention.At this point, Truman was reluctant to make a high profile.But at this time, the northern and southern factions are going to fight to the death.In that crucial platform roll-call vote, Southern delegates lost by a margin of 651.5 to 582.5.Handy Ellis of Alabama shouted, "Goodbye!" before leading the way from the venue.

The Confederates left the meeting on the evening of Wednesday, July 14.The president had just arrived and almost met them as they exited.His special train had just left Federal Station when the executive chairman of the convention called for silence that night.He sat in the compartment of the Ferdinand Magellan, flanked by Clark Clifford and Sam Rosenman.Truman read his speech through, assuming he'd come straight to the stage when he arrived.That was not the case, and could not be, because the General Assembly was in the midst of nominations.He also had to wait four hours in the sweltering backstage.It was the unluckiest moment of his life.Just then they took him off stage to a dark room with a small balcony looking down on a litter-strewn alley, which was fitting.The room was close to the railway tracks, and he could hear the locomotives rumbling by and feel his stiff-backed chair vibrate.Now he talked to Buckley, now to Homer Cummings, looked out at the soot and rubbish now and then, wiped the sweat from his forehead, revised the outline of his speech, browsed for a while, and brooded for a while by himself, and so on. wait.

At 00:42 on Thursday, the president was finally nominated as a candidate with 947.5 votes, 362 to Richard Russell of Georgia and half to former Governor Paul McNutt of Indiana.Cabell Phillips wrote that although it was past midnight, the people were exhausted and the weather was hot, Truman's statement "seemed to erupt all of a sudden, cheers and disapproval seemed to come from the heart. Those The deputies, who had been sitting listlessly despite the passing of others up and down the aisle, now took up banners, beat various clappers, and joined in the purposeless dance of the snake. stood up and looked at each other with disbelieving faces. They said, 'It seems to be true.'”

Buckley's appointment was by acclamation, a further sign that the convention had not accorded the same honor to that candidate for president. At 1:45, Barkley and Truman stepped onto the stage to the music of "Hail Our Chiefs".Usually at such a congress, this should be the climax: the two leaders hold hands and hold them high, the lights are dazzling, the organ is playing, the men stand up on the folding chairs, and the women are weeping. .Of course, everything like this is also available now.But it was more than that, there was a sense of humor that seemed to go well with the general atmosphere of the convention.Chairman Rayburn had just begun to introduce Buckley when a fat overdressed woman interrupted him.Throughout the night, a flowered Liberty Bell stood in front of the convention rostrum, ready for the president to appear on the stage.At this moment she was dedicated to him, or rather, was going to be dedicated to him.Suddenly there was a rustling under the Liberty Bell—just as she had time to stammer and finish saying "Peace Dove", flocks of white doves came out from under the flower clock, carrying their own gifts, and flew over the heads of the delegates. Fly around.Whoever devised this dramatic scene obviously didn't know, but anyone familiar with pigeons knew what was coming next. "Be careful with your clothes!" shouted the farmer among the crowd.too late.People have been muttering profanity all through the meeting, and now the dirt is coming, staining their shirts and dresses.Fortunately, in 1948, the press considered such matters too vulgar for serious readers, so it was fortunate that the image of the party had not been affected much.Sam Rayburn on the podium saved the day.He caught a pigeon that had just flown by and hurled it aloft.The representatives all cheered.To their surprise, they found that the tension was gone, people relaxed, sniggered, picked up soiled handkerchiefs, and joked with each other that no matter what Harry Truman would do in the future, no matter how dirty So dirty.

There was an even bigger surprise.After Barkley made a brief speech, Owen Ross told us: "The extremely tired audience braced themselves for a set of routine speeches by the President." Under the cold window, facing the alley, I took it down amidst the panting sound of the locomotive.Using his new style of extemporaneous speech, he delivered a sharp, thrilling, unanimous speech.In Rose's words, "His shrill, high-pitched voice electrified the audience." With quick, awkward gestures, he yelled, "Senator Barkley and I Going to win this election, Republicans have to like it if they don't like it - remember!" He bellowed, "If the voters don't do their duty to the Democrats, they are the most ungrateful people in the world!" He then turned to Republicans, citing plans he had proposed and rejected by Congress on health care, housing, price controls and education aid.He said they killed these measures, and then, in a shameless and hypocritical manner unprecedented in history, they passed a campaign platform saying they were going to achieve all these plans.Well, he'll test their sincerity. So he delivered a fatal blow to the Republican Party: "On July 26th, what we in Missouri call 'Turnip Day,' I'm going to call Congress back in session and put forward some of the things they said in their platform they were going to fight for Bill. My friends, if the Republican Party has any serious intentions to achieve their platform, the 80th Congress should do something in a short session. If they want to, they can complete the legislation in half a month formalities, and they can still have time to travel around and campaign.” As a result, the New York Times reported, “the convention boiled over.” The weather, the time of day, the bitter partisan tensions and the seemingly inevitable November election defeat were all temporarily forgotten.Truman waited for them to be quiet for a while, and then explained the problem clearly. "They will try to dodge that responsibility," he yelled, "but the performance of the 'worse' 80th Congress in this special session will test whether they mean what they say!" They stood up and cheered him.He has been proceeding with the original plan, maintaining "no compromise" with the Republican Party, and the reaction outside the meeting has confirmed this.People who write editorials don't know what to say.Using federal funds to run a campaign is outrageous enough, and now calling a special session of Congress to gain an advantage for one's own party is almost qualifying for impeachment.Vandenberg told a reporter: "It looks like the last hysterical gasp of a dying administration." Rep. Hugh Scott Jr. of Pennsylvania criticized: "This is the last struggle of a dying man, He has lost the confidence of his people, and will not hesitate to destroy the unity and dignity of the country and government for the sake of partisanship." Walter George of Georgia, in a brilliant and colorful series of similes, exclaimed: " The south is not only in a disadvantaged position, but it is also under the shackles! We have been put on the shackles to show the public." Everywhere, however, there were people who admired Truman, even if they didn't take it seriously. "There is no doubt that he has lifted the demoralization of the delegates," wrote Time magazine. "His political courage has commanded reverence." The main events in July were the two split political parties and the so-called "turnip fest meeting".The Dixie Party is fighting spirit.Their strategy is to bring the campaign to a stalemate, which will eventually be resolved by a vote in the House of Representatives.They thought they would get as many votes as Truman. They met in Birmingham on July 14, and in one day they covered the entire agenda of the Congress.They proposed Strom Thurmond as their presidential candidate and Mississippi Governor Phil Wright as their vice-presidential candidate.But the Dixie party's segregationist front was tenuous and at times threatened with disintegration.Neither LaSalle nor Harry Bird attended the convention in Birmingham, not because they thought whites and blacks should have equal rights, but because they feared their standing in Congress would be affected.But in any case, a Dixie split is always a blow to the Democrats.Clifford in particular, because his campaign had envisaged that the Democratic southern states would be united. Ten days later, Wallace's Progressive Citizens Union of America went to Philadelphia to form the Progressive Party of America. On December 29, the leader of the party announced his candidacy for the presidency and started the party-building movement, which seemed to have a bright future."We've assembled a group of heroes," he said at the time. Progressives hadn't counted on winning the 1948 presidential race, but they thought 1952 would be their world.The average age of the delegates is about 30 years old, 20 years younger than the delegates attending the congresses of the two major parties.Many universities in the United States have representatives. There are more representatives from traditional prestigious universities than the so-called top ten universities. There are also many representatives from trade unions whose leaders have turned left.The young men all wore crew cuts, which was one of the student fashions at the time, and they wore open-necked sweatshirts.The young women wore socks and wide skirts.Black people are also well represented.Many at the meeting carried guitars and sang folk songs in the style of Pete Seeger and now vice-presidential candidate Glenn Taylor.It seems everyone is having a good time.At first glance, the Progressive Party appears to be thriving. In fact, the internal contradictions in this party are tense.The only New Dealer Wallace could recruit was Rexford Guy Tugwell, but he and Lee Pressman were always at odds.Pressman was a Communist, legal adviser to the CIO, who was ousted by Walter Reuser.People didn't just label people as communists then, especially in the first ten years after the war.It is not easy to do this especially with famous people.Some voters think that the difference between the Progressive Party and Truman is because the Progressive Party is a liberal. Now that there is a Communist Party in it, they feel at a loss as to what to do.However, this ideological confusion was deliberately caused by the Communists.It was a stroke of luck that they were able to capture the former Vice President of the United States.The American Democratic Action Organization was formed in January 1947 to fight the Communist Party, while the American Progressive Citizens Union was modeled after the American Democratic Action Organization. Three years after the 1948 election, Michael Quayle, who had severed ties with the Communist Party, testified before a committee of the A.C.I.O. about the Communist Party's role in the Progressive Party movement.Quayle, president of the transportation union, was by no means a man who persecuted others on charges of "reds."In the autumn of 1947, he said, he was still a sympathizer of the Communist Party.At that time, the general secretary of the Communist Party, Eugene Dennis, told him and some other union leaders that the party organization "decided to form a third party under the leadership of Henry Wallace" and that Wallace "would be open in a few weeks." declared his candidacy for president." Wallace appeared to be blindfolded for this outlandish venture, like a mill animal.He later told friends that, late in the campaign, he found he was being used, and almost everyone around him openly identified himself as a Communist.He must have found out last. The New Republic had warned him, the Nation had tried to draw his attention, the Afternoon had warned him. The New York Post asked him to join Americans for Democratic Action, but he wouldn't listen.He was campaigned by only two newspapers in the United States, the Daily Worker and the York Daily of Pennsylvania.Reporters asked him to publicly declare that he would not run for the Communist Party, something Roosevelt had done in the 1930s, and he refused. The result was that his reputation was severely damaged.There were 3,200 charismatic delegates at the Philadelphia convention, more energetic and enthusiastic than the conventions of the two major parties.Despite this, his Communist aides failed him at every turn.His acceptance speech at Philadelphia's Scheib Park could well have been one of the biggest events in American political history.Tickets cost no more than two dollars and sixty cents each, and the lowest was sixty-five cents—the proletariat in the bleachers.The number of participants exceeded 30,000, and the crowd cheered wildly for him, which shows that his reputation has not diminished in the past.Given a modicum of unbiased public opinion, which he could have easily obtained, he should have had no trouble winning over the likes of Walter Roosevelt and Jimmy Roosevelt.In July of that year, these people were not difficult to persuade. He only had to cut off relations with Lee Pressman and others.But he refused.He said, "I will not reject anyone who supports me for the sake of peace." A reporter from "Time" magazine said that the American Progressive Party's platform is very similar to that of the Communist Party, and asked him to pay attention. "I think their program is very good!" That's what Wallace said about the Communist Party.He added, needlessly, "I think the communists are most like the martyrs of early Christianity." As a result, Wallace's campaign lost momentum.He persevered in spite of the denunciations of those who saw no resemblance between the Communists and the early Christian martyrs.His hands were still outstretched, his brow was sweating, and the familiar lock of hair covered one eye.He headed south and was thrown eggs, tomatoes and firecrackers in three North Carolina towns.Speaking to the press, Truman lamented the "violation of America's tradition of fair treatment."In addition, the president dismissed the threat of the Progressive Party of America, believing that the threat of the Progressive Party would naturally shrink once the novelty of Wallace wore off.And so it was.As the election campaign continued to develop, the Progressive Party's momentum was gradually weakening.Tugwell quietly withdrew his support, the left-leaning United Electricians refused to back it, and the Progressive Party candidate for MP dropped out of the local race.Political analysts thought in the spring that Wallace could get as little as 3.5 million votes.Running for president as a third party, he would far exceed the 900,100 votes Debs received in 1912.A Gallup poll at the time estimated he would get 7 percent of the vote.But by the third week of October, Gallup's prediction had dropped to 4%, and by November 2, the actual votes for Wallace were less than this percentage, only 1157172 people .The Democrats split in favor of the Progressives, certainly costing Truman New York.But a closer analysis of the election results seems clear: Elsewhere, for every vote he lost to Wallace, he gained two or three votes from independent centrist sympathizers. Thurmond received 1169021 votes in the general election.His concentrated efforts to win over the former Confederate states gave him 39 electoral votes (Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and one Tennessee electoral vote).But we can think that this is worse than zero votes.The Democrats, finding that they could win without solid support in the Southern states, felt no need to compromise with them.Thurmond intended to defeat the champions of black civil rights, but ended up making their victory even faster. On July 26, Truman went to Capitol Hill to attend a hostile joint session of both houses of Congress to present what he called his "purchasing list," bills for passage.His 30-minute speech was interrupted by applause only six times, all from Democrats.Republican lawmakers refused to applaud.Dewey was as wary as ever, refusing to answer reporters' questions about the Turnipfest meeting.In his words, he didn't want to "lose his identity with Truman."He put Herbert Brownell in charge while he retreated to his study in Albany.Brownell was uneasy.He suggested to Taft that Republican congressional leaders could green-light some uncontroversial bills that would keep Truman from attacking Congressional obstruction.Why not amend the Displaced Persons Act to remove the clauses that discriminate against Jews and certain Catholics. Everyone believes that this bill needs to be revised. If it is proposed by the Republican Party, it will be weakened in the major urban areas in the East The Democrats' advantage at election time.Taft shook his head and disagreed, saying it was a matter of principle.The President is abusing his power by calling this meeting, and that "buying list" must be ignored.Brownell couldn't persuade him, and his fellow Republicans on Capitol Hill wanted to argue with Taft."Bob, I think we should do something," Vandenberg said. "We should try to show that we are making the best of these two weeks to the best of our ability. Then we can speak better in front of public opinion." According to Hugh Scott, who was there at the time, "Bob Taft didn't take it at all. 'No,' he said, 'we don't give that guy anything.' Anyone who knows Bob Taft Anyone who takes off the way of ending a conversation knows that this is where it ends." This made Truman happy.The bills he proposed in his state address to control inflation, expand civil rights, raise the minimum wage, expand Social Security coverage, and fund housing-building programs—most of which Dewey had vaguely endorsed on his campaign platform.Republican congressional leaders had endorsed these vague formulations in Philadelphia, but never dreamed at the time that they would be responsible for these platforms before a president was elected.Taft's principles are well-founded, but in front of the American public, it is still a problem to keep one's word.The Republican Party's impetuosity has only confirmed the president's view of it. On Aug. 12, the White House released a detailed report contrasting the president's proposal with congressional resistance.At the press conference on the same day, Truman expressed regret for the "doing nothing" meeting held by this "doing nothing" Congress.He said that everything he had said about Congress in the past proved to be justified, and that it had proven itself to be the "worst" Congress in history. A Washington reporter wants to follow another story.He asked the President before the meeting adjourned: About two weeks ago a stocky, unattractive woman of about thirty-five, Elizabeth Bentley, began testifying before the Senate Executive Branch Expenses Committee.She and a witness before the House Un-American Activities Committee, Time magazine editor Whittaker Chambers, have accused some government employees of being Soviet spies.Defendants include Alger Hiss, William T. Remington and Laughlin Curry.Is the president willing to say anything about these espionage hearings? "These are just means of diversion," snapped Truman, still thinking of the 80th Congress."They're using the issue to deflect and try to make excuses for what they should not be doing. Yes, you can quote me," he said. At 3:40 p.m. on Sunday, September 5, the driver of the "Truman Express" blew his horn twice in the driver's cab, and left Federal Station to meet with six million voters.This time, the Democratic Party's campaign, funded by the party, is finally in motion.The plan included two major cross-country trips of ten days each, one to the northeastern states, and short trips to states adjacent to the District of Columbia.During this first march, the president traveled 32,000 miles and delivered 250 speeches.It was a record in the campaign at the time.From watching the sunrise in the countryside in the morning to the last small train station 18 hours later, there are small town residents gathered around the carriage of the "Ferdinand de Magellan" with their eyes wide open and their flashlights held high , to see this little argumentative figure on the train platform, and Truman is always scrappy and has everything he has to say. He followed suit with his June rehearsal, mostly in a friendly manner, praising the local bands, introducing Beth and Margaret, and closing the informal chitchat with a request: "Go vote on November 2nd Stop and vote for the Democratic Party, then, I can stay in the White House for another four years." Or, "Make the right choice, so that I will not be short of housing on January 20, 1949." Every time the train stops at the designated time, the train The driver will pull the siren, and the team of quack drug sellers will continue on their journey. Crowds are getting bigger and bigger in cities, with 50,000 in Indianapolis, 50,000 in Denver, 250,000 in Boston, and 250,000 in Detroit. "There was no dancing, cheering, or whistling for Truman," wrote Richard Rowell in The New Yorker, October 9, 1948. "Everyone applauded. The intensity of the applause, as far as I can see, was comparable to a missionary The Baptist received about as little applause for his dismal report on his victory over paganism in Northern Rhodesia. This does not necessarily mean that those who listened to him were prepared not to vote for him, although my personal feeling is that most of them People won't vote for him." Many of what Truman said were absurd and irresponsible, and some were malicious.He is under attack, fighting alone, only 15% of the national newspapers support him, and people from all sides say that he is wasting time and wasting everyone's time. In this case, he can still make inflammatory speeches. “Republicans are greedy,” he said, “driving up prices and driving the American consumer to a corner.” He also said they were “obsessed with privilege,” calling Dewey a “fascist” and comparing him to Hitler.Speaking to an audience of 80,000 at the National Plowing Games in Dexter, Iowa, he attacked "this Republican Congress with a fork in the back of the farmer." September passed, October came, the days became shorter and the nights long.Apple juice began to be sold in supermarkets, and children hollowed out pumpkins to make grimacing lanterns.The first frost appeared, and the waiting geese flew south, followed by quail birds and swallow swallows.Squirrels start stockpiling acorns for the winter.Truman's special train is still running to and fro.On the field, the haystacks are brown and yellow, arranged in rows.The locomotive winds through the forest, and the golden crowns of the maple trees are gleaming, the staghorn sumac is crimson, and a siren blares, as if calling people to listen to the lively man introduce his wife and daughter, and express his point of view. Make a few jokes and wave goodbye. According to Clifford, near mid-October, the campaign train entered a low ebb.When they stopped in a small Midwestern town, a staff member jumped out of the car and bought a copy of the October 11 issue of Newsweek.A bold headline read: "50 Professional Political Commentators Unanimously Predicted Dewey's Victory." "Unanimous!" Someone said casually, causing a long silence.One of them came plodding back and showed it to Truman.He blinked, smiled, and said lightly, "Oh, the bloody lot! These people are always wrong. Leave 'em alone, guys, let's get on with it." Clifford thought that even then Neither Beth nor Margaret believed that the President had any chance of winning.But he himself thought there was hope, and it turned out that he was right. On the afternoon of October 13, on the way from Duluth to St. Paul, he turned over a copy of his speech in Duluth, wrote an analysis and forecast of the votes of each state, and handed it to George Elsey.Elsie sealed it and put it away until the day after the election.It turned out that Truman predicted that he would get 340 electoral votes, Dewey 108 votes, Thurmond 42 votes, and 37 votes were listed as "undecided".It cannot be said that the analysis is completely accurate, as four electoral votes were not counted.However, if someone who analyzes elections as a profession can predict the election results like him, I am afraid that he will pay any price. Meanwhile, the man who followed Harry on a national campaign tour continued to do well.Thomas E. Dewey's "Victory Special Train" was well organized and punctual. There were liaison personnel from all over the station to receive them. There were all kinds of equipment to send the speech in advance to the 98 accompanying reporters. The facsimile's loudspeaker beamed the candidate's deep baritone voice from the rear platform to the press bar car.The special train is equipped with the latest communication equipment, no matter what he wants to say, it can be transmitted and broadcast to various places. But he didn't want to say anything. At the end of September, Leo Egan reported in The New York Times: "Governor Dewey appears to have been elected, and is now just standing still, waiting to take office. His speech and behavior show that he believes that the election will only confirm what has long been decided. ...Governor Dewey has deliberately avoided any heated debate with a sitting Democratic president." The two trains have traveled only a day or two apart twice in the Midwest and California.Truman always took note of this and posed a barrage of tough questions to his opponents.Dewey refused to take the bait.He preferred to talk of the "unlimited vistas" of the Rocky Mountains, of the "soft and rolling wooded country" through which he passed, of the "popular cities" and "fertile plains"—in short, of the United States of America. "Incomparably magnificent". Truman talked about housing, the minimum wage, health care for the elderly, and crops.Dewey defended the water. “只要充分保持土壤，”他在丹佛市响亮地说，“我们就能采取很多措施来保障我们的前途。我们对现有的水必须善加利用。河里的水，我们要用来耕作，还要用来发电……应从最大限度地保持水源、发电、航行、防洪、垦荒和灌溉的角度，来开发西部各条大河。” 杜鲁门所谓“在背后刺进一把禾叉”的讲话发表后两天，全国都在等候共和党领导人表态时，杜威在得梅因市却只说：“到了1月20日，我们将进入一个新时代。我们准备在华盛顿成立的新政府，对美国人民有信心，对其需要有深切了解，并有能力予以实现。我们将重新实现我国人民不可缺少的团结以及使美国成为伟大国家的那种精神力量。我们全国又将肩并肩地向着更伟大的未来前进，使每个美国人生活得更美好，卓有成效地致力于维护世界和平。” 杜威发表的正式讲话内容这样枯燥乏味，有办法的记者就开始追求某件趣闻乐事、某个轻松的特点来点缀一下那些苍白无色的段落。10月12日在伊利诺伊州的博库普城，列车突然向后面一堆人群倒溜。倒退几英尺以后，它又刹住了，没有造成伤亡，但这位州长的情绪却受到影响，发了脾气。他当时怎样说的，那就看你听的是哪种说法了。反正他不是说“我没见过这样的白痴司机”，就是说“我第一次见到这样的疯子司机。他大概该在黎明时枪毙，但由于没有造成伤亡，我看可以免予追究”。也许他难得讲出什么有实质内容的话，于是这句话就不胫而走，在全国各个工会礼堂和铁路的圆形机车库内，竟成了反对杜威的口号。 其他共和党人则在战斗。休·斯科特当时是全国委员会主席，他抓住了本特利-钱伯斯的证词，认为这个问题涉及面广，不能轻易当成是“转移目标”。但是杜威对此只略提一下，又马上转而高谈阔论：“我们有时不能按我们的信仰行事，而且经常缺乏信仰。但在我们内心中，我们相信而且知道，每个人都是信神的，每个个人都是最为宝贵的。”说句公道话，在竞选运动快结束前那几周，杜威也开始怀疑自己的策略。听他讲话人少了，而他从报纸了解到，听杜鲁门讲话的则多起来了。他的策略委员会——布劳内尔，斯科特、埃利奥特·贝尔和拉塞尔·斯普拉格——决定在工业发达的西北部，来个最后攻势；至于中西部的农场主们，他们生来就是共和党人，可以不必为他们操心。杜鲁门的冷嘲热讽使他按捺不住，他要回击，于是在四个居民点放手干了起来。他说，举个例说，杜鲁门否决塔夫脱-哈特利法的咨文，乃是“160年来白宫所发出的最错误、最失策、最不符事实的文件”。群众听了觉得蛮有味道，他自己也很得意，但他的顾问们则有所警惕。哈格蒂探听新闻记者们的反应，并向杜威报告说，记者们都认为相互攻击是个错误，只是承认自己软弱无能。为了保证杜威广泛听取意见，布劳内尔安排了一连串的电话会议，让杜威和共和党各州委会的委员们交换意见，96名男女委员中有90人参加。除了一人以外，大家都劝州长采取高姿态，让杜鲁门继续走他的低下的路子，失尽人心。只有堪萨斯州的哈里·达比是个例外，他警告说，农业地带现在难以驾驭。人们认为他是杞人忧天，未予理睬。于是杜威又继续他的圣战，呼吁为团结、廉洁、管好水利和维护信仰而奋斗。 一直到最后时刻，杜鲁门在列车里不断收到账单，因为服务行业的经理们生怕将来成为烂账。但是，自从《新闻周刊》那一期登了使人沮丧的消息以后，专列上的情绪已开始略有好转。在列车里晚上的漫谈中，年轻的工作人员们反复争论，究竟总统获胜的可能性有多大。但是，只要他们稍为乐观一些，就会有人提出，国内各种民意测验，都做出相反的预测。到了最后几天，克利福德认为有些迹象表明杜鲁门影响有所加强。杜鲁门按照传统习惯，在选举前的星期五晚，在布鲁克林音乐学院向群众大会发表讲话。人们起立，向他欢呼达12分钟。而在这些支持者中，有些人在费城代表大会之前，还曾经是“倒杜鲁门”运动的头头。克利福德于是想到，如果再有两个星期竞选时间，他们也许会有点儿希望的。 在芝加哥市，艾德莱·史蒂文森和保罗·道格拉斯并肩站在一辆敞篷车上，去体育场参加支持杜鲁门的群众集会。人行道上站满人群，有四五层之多，可是都默不作声。15年前，这些人都是在经济结构最底层的被遗忘的男女，是饿着肚子的教师和衣着褴褛的工人，英萨尔使他们陷入了困境，罗斯福则使他们得了救。史蒂文森见到人那么多感到惊讶。似乎整个芝加哥市的人都来了，但是几乎听不到什么欢呼，简直是哑然无声。道格拉斯说：“今天他们是来看看他们美梦的幻灭。” 《巴尔的摩太阳报》的总编辑汉密尔顿·欧文来到一位年轻记者的办公桌前。他说：“我已把祝贺新总统的社论写好。已经排版，准备付印。”他停了一下把眼睛一眨说：“要是杜鲁门获胜，那我就得另写一篇，不是吗·”他很欣赏自己这句俏皮话，乐呵呵地走开了。 《生活》周刊的订户在10月最后一个星期，就收到提前出版的11月1日的一期。在第37页上，有一幅整版那么大的杜威州长和夫人的照片，图片说明是“下届总统乘渡轮在旧金山湾的开阔海面上游弋”。同时登了一篇长达八页的关于竞选的综合报道。编辑们的结论是，美国“将抛弃杜鲁门而选择杜威”，理由既涉及“感情也涉及智力问题”。威拉德·基普林格主编的《变动的时代》周刊11月1日号封面刊登一条一英寸高的大字标题，说本期透露“杜威将有何作为”。10月31日星期天，《纽约时报》登出一篇报道，那是该报庞大的工作人员在全国各地进行长达一月之久的调查报告，反映各州选民的思想感情动向。其结论是：杜威会在29州获胜，得选举人票345张(有266张就可当选)，杜鲁门则在11个州获胜，得选举人票105张，瑟蒙德4个州，选举人票38张。另有43张选举人票待决。调查报告还发现，共和党将继续控制国会两院。为了肯定调查报告的准确性，《时报》向报道杜威的47名最敏锐的记者征询意见。他们在一次秘密表决中一致认为这位州长将轻而易举获得胜利。 《底特律自由报》在准备11月3日(即选举后第一天)发表的社论中，请国务卿马歇尔辞职，并劝杜鲁门委任杜威的外事顾问约翰·福斯特·杜勒斯取代他的职位。这家报纸编辑们的理由是：“这样就会使国内外对我们的对外政策恢复信心。”(还是那个杜鲁门主义，其时正在使希腊平静下来，马歇尔计划正在全面贯彻，而柏林的空运补给也已进入第五个月。)《自由报》承认：“这当然是对杜鲁门要求过高。然而，为了团结和国家利益，我们有时还要对千百万的美国人要求多得多呢”。这些编辑们对美国这位“落选”的总统倒是手下留情，说他“是个勇敢的小人物，从未追求过总统宝座，就任后不知所措，但却倾其全力战斗到失败”。《自由报》还对读者们说，杜鲁门生活上不成问题：“首先作为前任总统，他每年有希望得到2.5万元的退休金，还可以指望有广播电台和他签订合同、杂志约他撰文，还可以写书，这样加起来使他捞到一笔可观的收入，人们认为可以近达100万元。他的前途，还不至于是由白宫通向贫民收容所。” 但是新闻界论述这位打垮了的总统，并不都是这样宽宏大量。一位报业辛迪加的专栏作家发表文章，提出“杜鲁门在治国中碍手碍脚，究竟杜威会容忍多久”的问题。有些作者也和《自由报》一样，星期二选民投票，但星期一就写好准备在星期三登载的专栏文章，以便星期二排版。因此，德鲁·皮尔逊在开票后一天发表的文章的第一段，不禁使数以百万的读者感到惊讶。那段文章说：“汤姆·杜威在86天内将主持白宫，我对他周围那个紧凑的班子进行了调查。”接着他就神气十足地把新总统的内阁名单全部列出来。同一个星期三，约瑟夫和斯图尔特·艾尔索普透露说：“选举后的首要问题，是政府怎样度过未来的十个星期……事态总要发展，总不能停下来耐心地等到托马斯·杜威正式接替哈里·杜鲁门的职位。特别是在对外和国防政策方面，在华盛顿总要有些部门有些人有权做出决定，而又不致在1月20日后失效的。”艾尔索普兄弟建议杜威任命的国务卿和国防部长马上以“特别助理”身份进入这两个部，以便在杜威就任以前，指导那些即将下台的前任官吏。 这一切是怎么发生的呢·怎么会有那么多的老成练达的观察家肯冒那么大的风险而孤注一掷·答案就是他们并不认为那是孤注，更不要说是冒风险了。他们长时间以来都在议论杜鲁门，认为他毫无希望。他们都在文章中分析为什么杜威击败杜鲁门会易如反掌，相互影响之下，更认为选举不可能有别的结果。杜鲁门在竞选时声称：“除了人民以外，大家都反对我。”这倒有那么一点儿道理：他和选民与那些权威不同，并不认为选举是给谁加冕，而是一次竞争。以研究竞选趋向为职业的人们，认为所有的迹象都指着同一方向。凡是在野党控制了国会，两年后肯定就会赢得总统职位。民主党在1930年控制了国会，后来罗斯福就当选。而且，共和党人早就该重新上台了。罗斯福连任四届，只能归因于他个人的魅力，艾尔索普兄弟和皮尔逊都是这样看的，而杜鲁门所缺少的恰好就是魅力。共和党候选人有的是钱，绝大多数的报纸又支持——当然记者们认为这点很重要，而且，最重要的是，民意测验也都预祝其成功。 自《文摘》那次民意测验分析完全落空以来见第四章。——译者，已有12年了。1936年民主党在选举中占压倒优势，颇使共和党人难堪，再也不相信那种预测性投票。但是后来他们发现，当时乔治·盖洛普和埃尔莫·罗珀虽然没有《文摘》那些民意测验者那么有名气，但都不靠寄来信件而采取典型统计分析，竟而预测到罗斯福大胜。那次以后，每次选举又都证明，这些人的预测是正确的。大城市报纸，都订阅他们的资料。相反《纽约时报》花许多钱自己进行调查，人们反而觉得稀奇。要是有哪位权威反对他们的意见，人们就会说他是傻瓜。于是就开始了这样的循环：民意测验预测共和党大获全胜，专栏作家和社论作者就作为福音来传播。甚至有这种可能：那些原准备投民主党票的男女，为了想表明自己和大家看法一致，于是哄骗了民意测验人员。于是，将错就错；再加上民意测验人员已变得沾沾自喜，甚至是妄自尊大(至少有一次是如此)，这样就错上又加错了。 埃尔莫·罗珀是够妄自尊大的。他在9月9日一篇专栏文章里，在选举前差不多还有八个星期，就宣称他已对美国选举人作了最后一次调查。他写道：“托马斯·杜威实际上几乎已经当选了……既然是这样，我认为如果还要像电台人员报道体育比赛实况那样，硬要说两队是不相上下，那就是再单调不过，智力上再贫乏不过了。”罗珀也和许多职业的选举分析家一样，相信当时所谓的“法利法则”。法利在1936年的选举预言一鸣惊人以后，说过，根据他的看法，选民在两党举行代表大会时就已决定选举谁了。他意思是说，以后的竞选运动，不过是热闹一番，不起作用。9月份第一周，罗珀以自己的声誉押宝，所根据的是他的工作人员在8月份所搜集的数字。可笑的是，他在选举前的最后一周，确实又作了一次民意测验，结果是杜鲁门的形势略有好转。但是，杜威还是遥遥领先，因此他决定不采取两边下注。 三个全国性的民意测验——罗珀，盖洛普和克罗斯利——都错在没有问清调查对象是否真会投票和没有把只受过小学教育的选民包括在他们的典型调查之内，而这些人则多半是杜鲁门的支持者。但是他们最大的失误，还在于对杜鲁门的巨大努力的最后影响，竟然视而不见。杜鲁门专用列车还没有从联邦车站开出，罗珀就已下了结论。克罗斯利的最后报道，预计杜威获49.9%选票，杜鲁门44.8%，其余的选票则为瑟蒙德和华莱士。这是将8月中、9月中和10月中不同时间来自各州的典型统计混在一起进行分析的。三家中最认真的是盖洛普，他是应该意识到国内发生什么变化的。他9月24日的报道，估计杜威获46.5%的选票，杜鲁门则有38%。但他在选举前两天登载在星期日报纸上的最后一篇专栏中，说明杜鲁门声势猛增，达到44%，而这数字还是依据两周前进行采访得来的。克利福德说得对，美国人的态度每天都在变化，几乎是每个小时都在变化。 现在超过40岁的美国人，在记忆中有四件事特别突出：珍珠港事件、罗斯福逝世、1948年的选举和约翰·肯尼迪被刺。男人们也许会忘掉他21岁生日那天发生过什么事，女人们也许会忘了她怎样失去童贞，但每个人都想得起来他或她听到这四件事时是在什么地方。这些事成了人们生活中的里程碑。正好像他们的双亲会说“我们是在停战后相遇的”，或者说“股票市场大崩溃时，我们刚搬了家”；而他们这摇摆音乐的一代则把个人生活的事情，在日期上和达拉斯的枪声、日本对夏威夷的袭击、罗斯福在温泉中风、杜鲁门竞选获胜的奇迹联系起来。 那天晚上，大家都以为可以早睡。吉姆·哈格蒂在纽约罗斯福饭店的舞厅对记者说：“午夜之前，战斗就可能结束!”杜威在东第51号街一所学校里投票后，一个办事员在上面办公室一个窗口对他喊道：“祝你顺利，总统先生!”他本人预料，他和夫人在东第93号街六号他的好朋友罗杰·斯特劳斯家里进餐时，杜鲁门就会来电，承认竞选失败。在华盛顿，民主党传统是在五月花饭店集会，而共和党人则是在斯塔特勒饭店。现在斯塔特勒饭店已把舞厅布置一新，准备好礼服上的襟花，好让夫人小姐们到场时每人戴上一朵。与此相反，五月花饭店却毫无动静。民主党全国委员会肯定必然失败，连饭店的舞厅也未予包定。委员会的成员们想把钱省下来为1952年竞选时用，干脆回到他们当办公室用的套间，把电话机挂断，开两瓶威士忌酒，坐下来准备守夜。谁都没带收音机，因为这是惟一一个可以不必收听新闻的晚上(在60年代或70年代，他们准会有一人在衣袋中带一具半导体，但在1948年，手提收音机还是颇为笨重，还得要用墙上的电源插座)。这一夜，政治形势发展迅速，委员会的成员们都远远落在后面。《纽约时报》的卡贝尔·菲利普斯也同形势失去了联系。他报道了杜鲁门竞选消息以后，就回到曼哈顿，买了一件价值47.5元的大衣(那时算是价格高昂的了)和一张戏票去看林恩·方坦恩和艾尔弗雷德·伦特的新戏。当新罕布什尔州开始零零星星地发来选举结果时，菲利普斯正走进在第47号街的剧院大门。他坐在那里看了两场戏，对外面那一出更为精彩的戏，却毫无所知。 最初从新罕布什尔州报来的数字使杜威颇为惊讶。虽然他还是领先，但优势比不上1944年。这个州原是共和党的坚强堡垒，任何共和党候选人都料不到领先得那么少。他匆忙回到饭店的套间，和家人和几个密友坐在收音机旁，听着和看着给他送来的选举结果的电讯，在拍纸簿上记着数字。 杜鲁门总统则在密苏里州。在特工人员亨利·尼科尔森和吉姆·罗利1963年11月22日，他已任特工机关的头头。的帮助下，他早几个小时就避开了新闻界。下午4时30分，他们驱车到了离独立城30英里的风景区爱克瑟尔西奥温泉，在埃尔姆斯饭店休息。总统洗了个土耳其浴，6时30分回到房间，吃了一个火腿三明治和一杯牛奶。他把床边的收音机打开。一位广播员说，他以几千选票之差，初步领先。他就上床，几乎立刻就入睡了。 7时45分，《芝加哥论坛报》一位编辑颇为伤脑筋，因为要做出决定。该报的晨版要付印了，要准时送到街上让深夜从剧院散出来的观众买到手。这位编辑要选择一条标题，不能只说总统选举已经结束，因为这是谁都知道的。他需要一条实在的消息。杜鲁门是在领先，但在未弄清这些初步结果来自新英格兰哪个州以前，这些数字是毫无意义的。举例说，共和党候选人也许会在康涅狄格州占绝对优势，但是如果哈特福德像过去一样，先将选举结果公布，这个数字就会表明民主党获胜。但甚至康涅狄格州的评论员也说不出数字来源，他本人也不知道。因为他要抢先广播，一有纸条送来，他就在电台里读起来了。 这样《论坛报》大楼里的编辑，在还未知道具体情况之前，就要拟定他的标题。于是他只得依靠这次选举中有把握的情况，在大样上写了个通栏标题：杜威击败杜鲁门。 这时，选票累加数还不说明问题。杜鲁门初步领先是早就料到的，民主党力量主要是在城市里。城市里有选票计算机，通讯设备又较好，所以选举结果的消息到得最早。但是，排除了这个因素来进行分析，杜威似乎在纽约州和新泽西州获胜(但这仅仅因为华莱士在这两个州都取得大量选票)。除了马萨诸塞州和罗得岛外，他在整个东部各个工业州都占优势。这使他认为更有把握，因为这些地区在传统上是民主党势力范围。而且，瑟蒙德又使杜鲁门失去密西西比州、路易斯安那州、亚拉巴马州和南卡罗来纳州。但是尽管这样，杜威领先之少，令人不可思议。有些地区本来是共和党的坚强堡垒，但共和党却只以几票领先获胜。在一些地方，杜鲁门得到的选票比当年罗斯福还要多，在各主要城市中，他在选民票上都处于领先地位。 真正使人震动的消息来自阿巴拉契亚山脉以西的各州。民主党候选人在威斯康星州、艾奥瓦州和科罗拉多州都遥遥领先，而这三个州原都是共和党的老地盘。而且当西部11个州的初步选举结果到达时，杜威似乎只在俄勒冈州取胜。 10时30分，伦特在纽约上演的戏第二幕落幕了。卡贝尔·菲利普斯觉得口渴。在第一次幕间休息时，他没有离开座位，现在他想去附近一个酒吧盘桓一下。他要了苏格兰威士忌酒，这时听到收音机里的广播员念出各个州名、各个选区和分选区数以及一大堆不易理解的数字。菲利普斯已向酒吧间服务员付了钱，一口威士忌酒还未下肚，突然广播员用清晰的声音报道说：“杜鲁门领先，看来是无可争议的了。如他能在俄亥俄州又领先的话……” 菲利普斯噎住了，连威士忌酒也呛得吐了出来。他立即跑出大门，向着《时代》广场跑去。在途中，他想起他的新大衣，停了一下，决定不管它，飞奔报社。 每隔15分或20分钟，电台联播的播音员就请乔治·盖洛普博士就收到的统计数字发表意见。盖洛普解释说，民主党目前领先，但等农业地区的选票结果出来时，这种领先就会不存在了。到了11时，农业地区的选票开始报进来，仍是投民主党的。在平原地区各州的人们，都还记得哪个党帮助过他们维持粮价和解决谷物储存问题。 晚上11时，赫伯特·布劳内尔走进罗斯福饭店的舞厅，宣称杜威已获胜。党的工作人员欢呼起来，但他们还未来得及问清详细情况，他又急匆匆走上楼去了。看来哈格蒂对杜威的压倒优势估计过高，他们并不能在午夜前结束战斗。 午夜，杜鲁门醒来了，他过了一会才弄清自己是在这个陌生的饭店房间，接着他又打开收音机。那是H·V·卡尔登邦在广播，他说按选民票计算，杜鲁门虽然以120万票领先，他“无疑仍已被击败”。总统把他的播音关断，又翻身入睡。 有一个人刚来到民主党全国委员会华盛顿总部，他路上听到广播，带来消息说总统绝没有大败，在一些州他甚至还领先。当然，“农场主那边还没有消息。”有个工作人员建议派人取一架收音机来。他们耸耸肩膀，才点头同意。趁一切结束之前取乐一番也好嘛。 “这时，”理查德·罗维尔写道，“斯塔特勒饭店这座堡垒正在摇摇欲坠。共和党的夫人小姐们咬着襟花强作镇静，共和党的先生们紧张得满身大汗，连衣领也软蔫蔫的了。” 午夜过后不久，在罗斯福饭店舞厅中的庆祝气氛开始换成焦急不安，接着则是惊慌狼狈。到了这样深夜，他们才肯定杜威在他自己家乡那个州获胜，但是仅仅是以6万票领先。如果华莱士没有参加竞选，杜鲁门也会在这里击败他的。 现在，看来结果取决于俄亥俄州、伊利诺伊州和加利福尼亚州了。尽管说来难以令人置信，在现有票数基础上，杜鲁门在这三州中任何一州获胜，就可以当选。但是这三个州都是拉锯战。他一会儿在一个州里稍微领先，一会儿杜威又赶过了他。清晨1时45分，布劳内尔又到舞厅来，再一次发表杜威获胜的消息。他为什么这样做，只有他自己才知道。他赢得几声微弱的欢呼。其余的人只是瞪着眼看着他。 清晨4时，特工罗利把总统唤醒，建议他再打开收音机听听。他现在已经以200万票这个惊人数字领先了。H·V·卡尔登邦还在说，他看不出杜鲁门当选有任何可能性。他那声音，杜鲁门到死也忘不了，而且老是向朋友们寻开心地模仿他。 总统把衣服穿上，叫特工们驱车把他送回堪萨斯城的缪尔巴赫饭店，因为据他说“看来我们要再待四年了。”他们上午6时到达。倦容满面的记者们都感到纳闷：他究竟上哪里去了，好像刚刚睡过觉的样子。 4时30分，总统的车子从爱克瑟尔西奥温泉的埃尔姆斯饭店开走时，哈格蒂在罗斯福饭店召集记者，说他已和杜威交换过意见。他说：“我们还在战斗。选举结果还在报来，但看来在天明以前我们不会确切知道胜负如何。”35分钟以后他又再次出现。“现在，我们不作任何估计，也不作任何断言。”他说。 黎明后不久，这位筋疲力尽的州长上床睡去了，他还没有意识到他已被击败。正当他昏昏入睡时，他的消瘦劳累的助手们知道最后一线希望也已失掉。上午9时30分，杜鲁门以7000票领先，在俄亥俄州获胜。这样他就拿到270张选举人票，足够当选总统。一小时后，杜威睡醒，他才知道他在伊利诺伊州和加利福尼亚州也被击败。上午11时14分，他承认失败。杜鲁门总统不但竞选胜利，在选举人团中也取得出色的胜利——票数是304票田纳西州一个原先拥护杜鲁门的选举人，后来转而支持瑟蒙德。对189票，另有38票是狄克西党人的。不但如此，国会也与他一道取得胜利。在第80届国会中，共和党是以51席对45席控制了参议院，以246席对188席控制众议院。现在民主党以54席对42席在参院占了优势(比上届多了9席)，又以263席对171席在众议院取得优势(比上届多了75席)。保罗·道格拉斯、休伯特·汉弗莱、林登·约翰逊和埃斯蒂斯·凯弗维尔都当选参议员。门南·威廉斯当选为密执安州州长，切斯特·鲍尔斯为康涅狄格州州长，艾德莱·史蒂文森为伊利诺伊州州长。 塔夫脱这时暴跳若狂。“我不管对这件事情怎样解释，”他说。“又把那么粗鄙的小政客送回白宫简直是违反普通常识。”但在其他各处，杜鲁门这样取得胜利，使那些有宿怨的人也为之折服。“对这样一个本已失败但又总不肯低头挨打的人，你只有对他致敬。”极端保守的纽约《太阳报》写道，“杜鲁门先生之所以取胜，是因为我们这个国度，仍然是爱戴敢于战斗的人，仍然尊敬那些不屈不挠的人。”这次成功其实不只是个人的胜利。选举后两天，沃尔特·李普曼写道：“杜鲁门先生本人的胜利、国会两院里民主党又成为多数、民主党在这样多的州中取得优势，都证明民主党有巨大生命力，这是罗斯福从1932～1944年领导和发展的党……罗斯福死了，他建立的党还存在，而且无疑还是美国政治上的支配力量。” 选举后第二天，新闻记者和社论撰稿员都互相避开视线。新闻界和向他们提供消息的人都成了全国的笑柄，他们自己也知道。艾尔索普兄弟写道：“职业政治家、民意调查人、政治记者们以及其他自作聪明的人和预言家们，现在能继续以权威姿态谈论问题的只有一个，这就是怎样烧那老乌鸦。”烧乌鸦吃是美国俗语，是低头承认错误之意。——译者当总统和当选副总统回到华盛顿时(杜鲁门这时高举《芝加哥论坛报》的“杜威击败杜鲁门”的通栏大标题)，他们受到75万人欢呼，《华盛顿邮报》大楼正面，挂一条横幅“总统先生，你什么时候把老乌鸦端到桌上，我们就吃。”赖斯顿给他自己的报纸《纽约时报》写了一封信，“我们和别的记者们过于缺少联系了，并且我们对民意测验的大量统计数字也过分相信了。”《时代》周刊说，报纸“把报道职责委给民意测验所了”。有几位报纸发行人大怒之下，停订了民意测验报道，民意调查人也低首认罪。盖洛普只是说：“我也不知道是怎么一回事。”一位《纽约时报》的记者想起打电话给《文摘》最后一任编辑威尔弗雷德·芬克，请他发表意见。芬克回答说：“不要认为我是恶意的，但我对这件事确实觉得非常好笑。” 后来，密执安大学的“调查研究中心”对各种民意测验机构进行了一次民意测验，而盖洛普和罗珀也认真地对自己工作进行了检查总结。各方面结论倒是惊人的一致。密执安大学发现，投杜鲁门票的24105000中，14%，或者说有3374800人是在竞选的最后两周才决定投他票的。盖洛普和罗珀采取不同的方法进行研究，发现每七个选民中就有一个人(即6927000人)是在选举前最后两星期才决定选谁的。在这些人中，有75%选了杜鲁门(即5195000人)，25%选了杜威(即1732000人)，相差3463000人。既然杜鲁门在11月2日比杜威多2135000票，结论只能有一个。不管用密执安大学还是用盖洛普-罗珀的数字，都证明大约有330万拿不定主意的人，到了竞选行将结束时才决定了谁胜谁负。正是在这期间，杜威在本能上本来要采用杜鲁门那种不管粗鄙与否、给他致命一击的方式，但由于所有的专家顾问们都认为他不该如此，他也没有这样做。