Chapter 10 (10) Proof of victory or defeat

In the Battle of Guandu, Cao Cao defeated the many with the few and defeated the strong with the weak, establishing his indisputable dominance in northern China; while Yuan Shao, who supported his own self-respect, suffered a crushing defeat and withdrew from the stage of history.Why did the powerful Yuan Shao fail?What does Yuan Shao's failure have to do with himself?What kind of person is Yuan Shao?Please pay attention to "Yi Zhongtianpin Three Kingdoms: Proof of Victory and Failure"! The Battle of Guandu that broke out in 200 AD changed the balance of power between Yuan Shao and Cao Cao. It was a key battle in that troubled time in northern China from division to unification.According to the records of "Three Kingdoms", Yuan Shao's military strength was far superior to Cao Cao's at that time, with 100,000 troops, but Cao Cao's military strength was less than 10,000. Some people even asserted: Cao Cao must be defeated.However, when the overall combat situation was unfavorable, Cao Cao won the Battle of Guandu and established his dominance in northern China; while the Yuan Shao Group was completely defeated and never recovered.

So, what caused Yuan Shao's failure?Professor Yi Zhongtian from Xiamen University is a guest on "Hundreds of Lectures", and will tell you about the magnificent history. The "Success and Failure" is currently being broadcast, so stay tuned! In the last episode, we talked about the Battle of Guandu. Everyone knows the outcome of the Battle of Guandu now, that is, Cao Cao defeated the strong with the weak, and won a complete victory with the few enemies.This ending was actually expected by Yuan Shao's two advisers, Jushou and Tian Feng. Therefore, Jushou and Tian Feng firmly opposed Yuan Shao's launching such a war. As a result, Jushou was captured by Cao Cao and Tian Feng was imprisoned by Yuan Shao.And as we mentioned in the last episode, when the news of the Yuan Shao Group's defeat reached Yecheng, friends went to visit Tian Feng and said that brother Tian would have a bright future, but Tian Feng's answer was that I It will be dead.

Why did Tian Feng answer like this?Is Tian Feng dead?Let's first summarize why Yuan Shao failed in this war, and then answer this question. Why did Yuan Shao fail in this war?Because his war is unjust. This is the main reason why Jushou and Tian Feng opposed Yuan Shao's launching this war. They both raised the question of the justice of this war to Yuan Shao.Jushou said, the world is in chaos, the people are struggling to survive, and our emperor has just settled down. Is it reasonable for you to start this war at this time?No.We have now acquired the land of Jizhou, Qingzhou, Youzhou, and Bingzhou, and eliminated Gongsun Zan in the north. We should report our victory to the emperor. We should report to the emperor what we have done to stabilize and unify the country over the years .If Cao Cao stops us and does not allow us to report, then we will take the opportunity to sue Cao Cao for blocking the king's road.At the same time, we can use mobile warfare, guerrilla warfare, and protracted warfare to deal with Cao Cao. We can keep sending troops to harass him, making him restless and exhausted, and then we will deal with him again.

This opinion is correct. First, it is reasonable to put Cao Cao in such an unrighteous position and turn Cao Cao's political advantage into his political disadvantage.Resist the weak with the strong, wait for the work with ease, and use mobile warfare, guerrilla warfare, and protracted warfare to deal with Cao Cao. The cost is low, the risk is small, and the benefit is large, which is called favorable.Step by step, step by step, accept as soon as you see it, and seize the opportunity to eliminate Cao Cao, this is called discipline.Reasonable, beneficial, and restrained, such a strategy is a good strategy.

If Yuan Shao didn't listen, who would he listen to?Listen to Guo Tu, listen to the reviewer, and both the reviewer and Guo Tu advocate that according to Yuan Shao's decision, one hundred thousand elite troops should be assembled immediately and march towards Xudu.So why did the trial match and Guo Tu make such a claim?My personal opinion is that the trial and matching may be muddled, and Guo Tu is flattering, because Guo Tu is a person who knows that Yuan Shao is eager for quick success, very happy for success, self-righteous, and self-righteous.Yuan Shao is very good now, he thinks he is majestic, he can swallow thousands of miles like a tiger, he is eager to win now, he is impatient to engage in mobile warfare, guerrilla warfare, protracted warfare, and it takes three years to kill Cao Cao, he is impatient , he is not happy, he is not chic.Guo Tu knew the character of Yuan Shao. Guo Tu said, there is no need for this. The book of war says that ten should be surrounded, five should be attacked, and the enemy should be fought. What does that mean?That is, if our strength is ten times that of the enemy, we will surround him; if our strength is five times that of the enemy, we will attack; if it is exactly equal to the enemy, we can fight him.Now our army is ten times that of Cao Cao!Why do we still have to do such small tricks, what mobile warfare, guerrilla warfare, protracted warfare?With our Yuan Gong's wisdom and prowess, and our army's invincibility and invincibility, wouldn't it be easy to wipe out a little Cao Cao!

It's a set of empty words, the kind that sycophants say best.The words of a sycophant are the most unreliable, but Yuan Shao is a person who likes to sycophant, and he immediately becomes complacent after hearing it.Jushou saw that the situation was not good, so he came out to speak again. This time, Jushou's words were more serious, and he refused to accept it, saying: "Put down turmoil, punish cruelty, these are called righteous soldiers; those who use military force to bully others are called arrogant soldiers."Righteous soldiers are always victorious, and arrogant soldiers are always destined to lose.Now that the Son of Heaven is here, we learn from the unknown, violate righteousness, and lose one move in politics; but we bully the weak and bully others, and lose another move in morality; We still need to pre-empt strikes, and we have to complete our efforts in one battle, so we have lost another move in strategy, and this war will definitely not be won.

This remark comes down to the fundamentals, what is war?War is the continuation of politics, so it is very important to conduct a war whether it is politically beneficial and morally reasonable, and Yuan Shao's loss is first of all in this place.It can be said that political failure, moral irrationality, and strategic failure are the primary reasons for Yuan Shao's failure. According to Mr. Yi Zhongtian's analysis, before the Battle of Guandu, Yuan Shao did not listen to the advice of his counselors and insisted on going his own way. He had already lost a move politically.But after all, Yuan Shao has many soldiers and generals, and his political defeat can be saved through actual military combat, and it is still possible to win victory.But in the end Yuan Shao still failed, why?

In addition, Yuan Shao also made mistakes in command.When Cao Cao was perched on the white horse, he didn't guard the white horse to rescue Yanjin. It was a mistake for Cao Cao to attack the west and divert the tiger away from the mountain.Cao Cao retreated to advance and stretched his supply line. Yuan Shao was deceived, and advancing to Guandu was a double mistake.During the stalemate, Xu You advised Yuan Shao to send surprise troops to attack Xudu and kidnap the emperor. Yuan Shao's refusal to accept it was three mistakes.When Cao Cao attacked Wuchao by surprise, Yuan Shao did not send heavy troops to save Wuchao, he followed Guo Tu's suggestion, sent heavy troops to attack Guandu, and lost Wuchao. These are four mistakes.It can be said that in this war, Yuan Shao's command was wrong again and again, so some people say that the ending of the Battle of Guandu is not so much that Cao Cao used his troops like a god, but Yuan Shao's stupidity.As the saying goes, if there are raging soldiers, there will be raging generals. If the coach is at this level, this war will definitely not be won.

The root cause of Yuan Shao's command mistakes is that he lacks handsome talents. What are his characteristics?It's called late to see things, what is late to see things?It is slow to respond, always unable to make a decision immediately, and indecisive.As we said earlier, before the Battle of Guandu officially started, Yuan Shao's army came over, and Cao Cao's army also came over, facing each other across the river. At this juncture, Cao Cao actually beat Liu Bei in his busy schedule.When Cao Cao decided to fight Liu Bei, everyone objected, saying that the enemy is now, and our number one enemy is Yuan Shao. Why don't we fight Yuan Shao and let us fight Liu Bei?Cao Cao said that Liu Bei is the real hero, and he must be killed before his wings are full, otherwise it will be too late.Everyone said, what if we go to fight Liu Bei and Yuan Shao steals our back and attacks us?Cao Cao said don't worry, I know this guy too well, he's an old friend, it's too late, he won't react until we finish beating Liu Bei, just wait.Sure enough, Yuan Shao lost a great opportunity.In fact, Tian Feng suggested Yuan Shao to attack Cao Cao at this time, what did Yuan Shao say?You see, my youngest son is sick and has a high fever. What kind of battle is he fighting?Tian Feng was so angry that he held his cane and beat it on the ground and said, oh, is there such a handsome guy?If you don't seize the great opportunity, don't you care what kind of high fever your youngest son has, really, it's Yuan Shao himself who has a high fever.

Then another reason for the command error was Yuan Shao's improper employment.Yuan Shao's subordinates are very talented, so when Yuan Shao came to attack Cao Cao, Kong Rong concluded that Cao Cao could not win. Kong Rong told Xun Yu that Kong Rong said something like this. Kong Rong said: "Tian Feng, Xu You, a man of wisdom, is a man of counsel. He is a loyal minister who judges, matches, and disciplines, and does whatever he wants. Yan Liang and Wen Chou are the brave leaders of the three armies, and it is difficult to control their troops." There are so many talents. , how can we win?Xun Yu said it doesn't matter, why?There are indeed many talents in Yuan Shao's side, but he has faults with all these talents. What is the fault? Xun Yu said: "Tian Feng committed crimes when he was strong, Xu You was greedy and did not punish him, he was dedicated to trial and appointment but he was useless, and he used the fruits of his own accord." That is. Although Tian Feng is right in thinking about problems and making judgments, he is too stubborn and always contradicts his superiors. No leader would like this person who always contradicts his superiors, so his correct suggestions are not Will be adopted by Yuan Shao.Xu You also has a lot of ghost ideas, but this person is very greedy. He is so greedy that Yuan Shao can no longer satisfy him, so there is a problem with this kind of person's loyalty.There is no problem in approving this person's loyalty, but he thinks about the problem very narrowly, and he is not comprehensive.Then there is no problem with Fengji's loyalty, but he is very domineering.So Xun Yu concluded that he said that Xu You's family would definitely commit the crime, because of greed, insatiable greed, he would definitely have an accident, once something happened to him, the two people, Shenpei and Fengji, were private and law enforcement. Rushan will definitely be merciless and will arrest his family members. Once his family members are arrested, Xu You will definitely defect; as for Yan Liang and Wen Chou, they are brave enough to be captured in a single battle.The results were all within Xun Yu's expectations.

In fact, it doesn't matter if these people have problems. Who do you say is not wrong?People have faults, you have faults, I have faults, everyone has faults, so faults are not a problem, what is the problem?The problem is that if a coach wants to know people well, what should he do?He needs to clearly understand the advantages, disadvantages, strengths, and weaknesses of each of his subordinates, and then make use of their strengths and avoid weaknesses. This is called knowing people and being good at tasks.Yuan Shao did not have this ability. Yuan Shao's principle of employing people is very simple, that is, I am happy; his principle of happiness is also very simple, he is happy whoever flatters him, and he hates whoever gives advice.Tian Feng kept raising opinions and went to prison, while Jushou kept raising opinions and left him in the cold.In fact, we mentioned Yuan Shao’s mistakes in command earlier. Before each command, he actually had the correct opinion of Jushou, but he just didn’t listen, because Jushou didn’t follow his hair, he didn’t know how to brag and flatter him, and Yuan Shao liked it. For a person like Guo Tu who knows how to flatter, what kind of result will he end up with?It makes us think that Yuan Shao seems to have a kind of genius. He must not listen to any correct opinions that are beneficial to him, and he must listen to all wrong opinions that are not conducive to him. That is strange. Some people say that the Three Kingdoms era was an era in which talents came forth in large numbers. No matter which group they were in, they had many advisers and talents under their command. The strategies of these advisers directly affected the progress of the situation.There is no lack of these counselors under Yuan Shao, and their ingenuity is no less than that of the counselors of the Cao Cao Group. This is undoubtedly another trump card for Yuan Shao, so how did Yuan Shao play his cards?What will the resourceful counselors bring to Yuan Shao? There is something wrong with the adviser, and the coach is not well-known. This is the situation of Yuan Shao's group.Originally commanding a battle, a military meeting was to be held. At this meeting, everyone should say what they want, and the speaker should be innocent. Everyone can say what they want to say, and then make a decision.It is normal for people in the same group, or people in the same team, to have differences of opinion at work. Differences in work opinions should not cause tension between people. We should speak freely at the meeting. Such a team is invincible through unity and cooperation under the meeting, isn't it?That’s not the case with Yuan Shao. In order to fight this war, he was divided into two factions. After the meeting was a mess, those who advocated war ran to Gen Yuan Shao to make a small report, saying, please pay attention to this person, Ju Shou, Ju Shou Does this person have too much power? Yuan Shao thought yes, he is the supervisor of the three armies, he has too much power, and his opinions are always different from mine.Jushou has no way to say, if this is the case, can I resign?Don't resign, come with me.When Jushou followed Yuan Shao across the Yellow River, he said this sentence, he said that the Yellow River is surging, I am afraid I will never come back!Sure enough, after the defeat in the battle of Guandu, Yuan Shao only cared about running for his own life, regardless of Jushou's life or death, Jushou couldn't escape, and was captured by Cao Cao. Yuan Shao's counselors were fighting each other, and Yuan Shao's family was having trouble with housework.Yuan Shao has three sons, the eldest son Yuan Tan, the middle son Yuan Xi, and the youngest son Yuan Shang. Who does Yuan Shao like?Yuan Shang, why, because Yuan Shang is beautiful, so he decided to appoint Yuan Shang as his successor.Because probably Yuan Shao is also a good-looking person, a handsome guy, and the youngest of his three sons is the most handsome, so Yuan Shao thought that the successor of the old handsome guy should be the young handsome guy, absurd, isn't this absurd!But he can't say that, what should he do?He said so, three sons and one nephew, I will divide my four prefectures, isn't he Jizhou, Qingzhou, Bingzhou, and Youzhou? Each state sent a person to each state. Yuan Tan, Yuan Xi, and Gao Gan were nephews.Jushou objected again, Jushou said, my lord, how could you do this?As the saying goes, "If a rabbit walks on the road, ten thousand people will chase it", what does it mean? It is a rabbit. When it runs to a crossroad, everyone will grab it; "If one person catches it, the greedy will stop." Everyone stopped robbing.What you are doing now is tantamount to putting this rabbit at a crossroads. Can you stop fighting?Yuan Shao refused to listen, and after his death, his eldest son Yuan Tan and his third son Yuan Shang fought, and his counselors also split into two factions, killing each other, which saved Cao Cao a lot of effort.This is another blunder by Yuan Shao, called organizational estrangement. Then let's take a look at Yuan Shao now, political failure, moral failure, strategic failure, command failure, improper employment, organizational disharmony, if there are these six failures, if you don't fail, then it is the law of heaven.This ending was already expected by Cao Cao. When Yuan Shao's 100,000 elite troops marched southward and the menacing attack was coming, almost everyone thought it was impossible to win, only Cao Cao looked calm.Cao Cao said, "Yuan Shao is an old friend of mine. I know him well. What are the characteristics of him?"Ambitious, less intelligent, fierce attitude, timid, mean and suspicious, not popular, in his place, in his group, "there are many soldiers but the division is not clear, the generals are arrogant but the government orders are inconsistent", although he has a large land and many troops , there is plenty of food and grass, that's just for me to be the logistics minister.After all, Cao Cao was Yuan Shao's old friend. He really saw Yuan Shao through. Yuan Shao was short-sighted in politics, retarded in military affairs, and incompetent in organization. Yuan Shao's successive mistakes in politics, morality, and strategy led to his final failure. So why did Yuan Shao, who was a childhood partner with Cao Cao, lose to Cao Cao repeatedly in these areas?According to historical records, Yuan Shao's family has "four generations and three lords". The former officials and disciples are all over the world, and the political influence is deeply rooted. In addition, Yuan Shao was willing to make friends with talents of all levels when he was young, so he had a high personal prestige. The leader of the alliance is a very talented person.However, what is strange is why Yuan Shao, who has such a family background and social prestige, retreated one after another?What kind of person is Yuan Shao? Of course, if you say that this person has no ability or charisma at all, that doesn't conform to the facts. If he doesn't have any, how could he make such a big fuss?It should be said that Yuan Shao is actually capable and attractive. His greatest success is that he used the political resources of his family's fourth generation and third father to push the Yuan family's career to a peak.This is what is great about Yuan Shao. He didn't rest on his father's achievements like the later Qing Dynasty Eight Banners children. He grew up on the basis of the foundation created by his grandparents. Yuan Shao's final achievements, reputation, and status all surpassed him. This is what is great about Yuan Shao and needs to be affirmed.But at the critical moment, he showed stupidity, stubbornness and arrogance. His stupidity, stubbornness and arrogance are a trinity. He was stubborn because of his stupidity, arrogant because of his stubbornness, and stupid because of his arrogance.He is arrogant, so he can't listen to other people's opinions, so he is stubborn; because he is stubborn, he can't make correct judgments, so he is stupid; because he is stupid, he doesn't know his own weight, so he is arrogant.So Yuan Shao's failure is ultimately a failure of being a person, a failure of being a person, and a failure of character. So what is Yuan Shao's character?Heart split.Regarding this point, there have been evaluations in history, let's take a look at what history has said? "Three Kingdoms" said that Yuan Shao "was magnanimous and elegant on the outside, with restraint, his worries and joys were not visible, but he was jealous of harm." Xun Yu said that he "was lenient on the outside but jealous on the inside, allowing others to doubt his heart."What these words mean is that Yuan Shao appears to be elegant, personable, amiable, and lenient on the surface, but deep down he is suspicious of others, jealous of others, very mean, harsh, and narrow-minded. He can't see others being more beautiful than himself, can't tolerate others being smarter than himself, and can't stand others being more correct than himself.Why did he beat Cao Cao?Because Cao Cao is more beautiful than him, he obeyed the emperor's order and refused to be a minister.Why did he demote Jushou?Because Jushou is smarter than him.Why did he kill Tian Feng?Because Tian Feng is more correct than him. When he was defeated at Guandu and returned to Yecheng, Yuan Jun's soldiers all beat their chests and said, Oh my God!If Tian Feng was here, how could we have ended up like this?This word reached his ears, and he couldn't bear it, so he asked Feng Ji, how was Tian Feng doing in Yecheng Prison?He started fighting again, Feng Ji said, Tian Feng heard that the lord had lost the battle, gloated, clapped his hands and laughed, saying that this proves that he is the most wise.As a result, when Yuan Shao returned to Yecheng, the first thing he did was to kill Tian Feng.In fact, Yuan Shao also wanted to kill Tian Feng without the work of this villain of Fengji. Tian Feng had expected this a long time ago, so Tian Feng said that this time I was dead, and then Tian Feng had an explanation, he said why?If we lose the battle this time, our lord might pardon me as soon as he is happy, because he is the winner, and the winner is very tolerant, and he can also make me, a person with wrong opinions, a negative teacher, and bring me to the world. Show off everywhere around, look at me winning, this kid always says I can't win; but this time he lost the battle, he must be furious, he will take it out on me, so I am dead this time deal.Tian Feng's estimate was completely right, and he was killed as expected.Now we only need to compare this matter with Cao Cao's performance after the war. Cao Cao won the battle and thanked those who advised him not to fight this battle. Cao Cao owed his victory to others and his failure. Blame it on himself; Yuan Shao attributed his victory to himself, and blamed others for his failure, using their heads to vent his anger on himself.Please think about who should win and who should lose?Even Yuan Shao's wife is nothing. After Yuan Shao died, his body was still cold. The first thing his wife did was to kill all five of Yuan Shao's wives, saying that it was you vixens who caused my husband's death.Not to mention the killing, but disfigurement, why?If you don't disfigure your face, you went underground and saw my husband again, and you seduced him again.So Yuan Shao's family is this kind of people. Who decides the rise and fall, is there no basis for victory or defeat?Let's look back at the Battle of Guandu now, and we feel that victory or defeat is a matter of course!In fact, the superiority and inferiority of Cao and Yuan were shown very early. When they joined forces to attack Dong Zhuo, Yuan Shao asked Cao Cao a question, saying that if we fail, where can we rely?That is, what aspects can be used as our basis, or our base?Cao Cao smiled and said, what do you say?Yuan Shao said that we should occupy the Yellow River in the south, Yan and Dai in the north, and then unite with Rong and Di to fight for the front in the south.Cao Cao was amused, why do you always think about where to go, is that the most important place?It is useless where a useless person goes.Cao Cao said lightly, saying, I see, the heroes and talents who recruited the world and used justice and righteousness to control them, it should be said that they are invincible!This is indeed Cao Cao's move above Yuan Shao. Cao Cao knows that the banner of justice and an elite team are the two magic weapons to defeat the enemy. How Cao Cao holds up the banner of justice has been introduced in the previous program, so we will discuss it in the following In the show, I will talk to the audience friends about how he commands an elite team, please watch the next episode - All Rivers Are Inclusive.