Chapter 41 What is behind 4 trillion?
The era of using treasury bills to stimulate circulation has long passed. This country needs to find a new way to let the common people dig out the silver in the cellar.
Of course, never doubt the intelligence of the Chinese.Deng Xiaoping, who played a decisive role in China's 30 years of economic development, has long shown to the world that he is flexible and never sticks to the rules.Over the years, China's economy has been advancing rapidly, and its GDP has been rising at a high speed, and there is no time to think about other issues. However, after these magical 30 years, smart Chinese people will calm down and think about their next steps.
In "The End of the World 2012", why did the self-righteous Americans hand over Noah's Ark to the Chinese to make it?Now, this has almost become a worldwide consensus.In the financial turmoil sweeping the world, the Chinese government has shown its incomparably powerful strength. The centralized financial system and the mysterious "left-handed economy" in the eyes of Western society have determined China's new position in the world's economic development. If The financial turmoil is really likely to bring the world to the end, at least in the current China, we can definitely find the ark of salvation.
Is the financial turmoil really like an innocuous breeze to the huge China?no.Throughout 2008, Asia's largest economy, Japan, saw its exports fall by 35% year-on-year, while South Korea's economy shrank by 3.4% as exports fell. These figures highlight that Asia's export-dependent economies are actually very vulnerable to the crisis.China was not immune, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth dropping to 6.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, bringing the full-year growth rate down to 9%, a seven-year low. The 2008 deceleration halted five years of double-digit growth, but even then many economists are skeptical of the quality of China's statistics, arguing that they are vulnerable to political manipulation."The international financial crisis is still deepening and spreading, and the impact on China's economy is still continuing," the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement while announcing the economic growth figures.
At a time when the global economy is in decline and many countries are even in collapse, China's concern about its own growth rate seems more like a blissful annoyance.However, this kind of worry is not hypocritical. The Chinese economy based on the export-dependent model has maintained stable and miraculous growth for 30 years, and the next stage will face another structural transformation.Numbers only exist as a reference, and the transformation period often indicates infinite possibilities. Any happy number may disappear in a drastic transformation.
It is this kind of worry that compels the Chinese government to strike frequently. On November 9, 2008, the Chinese government announced major adjustments to fiscal and monetary policies, changing from a prudent fiscal policy and a tight monetary policy to a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy.The executive meeting of the State Council chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao determined ten measures to further expand domestic demand and promote economic growth.The investment required to implement these measures will be about RMB 4 trillion by the end of 2010.
The "4 trillion" plan is an unprecedented large project, which not only includes the short-term task of "guaranteeing eight" growth, but more importantly, it also undertakes the historical mission of China's economic structural transformation.As some economists said, "4 trillion yuan investment is not a complete increase in essence, and its signal significance to the macroeconomic stimulus is far greater than its actual investment stimulating effect."In fact, since November 2008, my country's stock market has "recovered" ahead of the rest of the world by four months; as for the property market, by the end of 2009, we have recovered for nearly eight or nine months, and the global property market has not yet seen a recovery. In the Chinese auto market, when sales in Europe, America and Japan fell by about 30%, we bucked the market and rose by 15%...
However, this is not so much a strong rebound as a false fire.The 4 trillion supporting market in two years first benefited from China's system. Behind the 4 trillion, hidden is the determination of Chinese policymakers to shift economic growth from trade-driven to consumption-driven, but the pattern of consumer spending cannot be changed overnight. .The growth rate of China's consumer price index (CPI) has also continued to decline, further releasing a signal of a sudden reduction in economic activity. "2009 was the most difficult year for the economy, and 2010 will be the most complicated year."
Why is it complicated?Where is the complexity?For example, real estate occupies an extremely important position in the country's economic indicators, and housing prices remain high. On the one hand, it is supporting GDP, and on the other hand, it is maintaining consumption and circulation.The Chinese economy supported by 4 trillion yuan is becoming a game, a game between the country and the market, and a game between the government and the people.The government keeps telling people that money must be spent and that money should be spent quickly, but the renminbi is the currency in the hands of the people, and saving the market is not disaster relief. It is difficult to regard every penny spent as a manifestation of saving the country.The government work report used the four words "extremely difficult" to summarize the Chinese economy in 2009, but "the possibility of a new crisis cannot be ruled out".If the consumption remains inactive and the circulation remains unsmooth, the 4 trillion yuan will become a dynamite bag that has been ignited but still held in the hand.
Sometimes, when you earn money for everything, you do think that some money can be earned or not, and you don't even want to spend too much trouble earning it.However, when you really want to make money, you will indeed rack your brains and rack your brains to find any opportunity to make money.China is advancing step by step towards its dream of becoming a great power, but it is by no means confident enough to think that it can look down on the world and be invincible. "The first thing they need to do is, with a forbearing and low-key attitude, use the power of the whole country to keep the fruits of victory that they have worked so hard to accumulate in economic development."
Neighboring countries in Asia in the Greater China cultural circle have used the courage to break through the moral bottom line to complete the concept change in the gaming industry. To a large extent, it is the current situation of the financial crisis that has promoted the historical process.Wealth is like water, the so-called flowing water does not rot, the door hinges do not moth, the gambling with the fastest money is the easiest to make wealth circulate like the blood of the whole body.Compared with those countries with financial collapse, the biggest difference between China is that the government has money, and the people also have money.The government's 4 trillion yuan has been poured out, and a flow has been completed. The money is poured into the stock market and the property market, just to facilitate the flow of money in the hands of ordinary people.Circulation is smooth flow only when there is flow.The era of using treasury bills to stimulate circulation has long passed. This country needs to find a new way to let the common people dig out the silver in the cellar.
In the past 30 years of rapid wealth growth, what the Chinese government relies on is not only the adherence to socialism and the maintenance of the bottom line of morality, but more importantly, grasping the characteristics of China's reality and making flexible adjustments to the market .Those who know the inside story know that the National Sports Lottery Center in 2009 was unprecedentedly busy and felt unprecedented pressure from the government. The new games of "Football Lottery" and "Basket Lottery" that were launched consecutively this year can be regarded as a workaround. signal, we prefer to think that this is a leisurely rhythm.
Don't talk about doctrine anymore, come and find a way.