Chapter 14 Gambling Guide: That Set of Mathematics and Probability Theory Models

A reporter at the scene, because he usually gambles, saw the online handicap in Xi'an that day... He looked up in bewilderment, because the two teams did not score at this time, he thought the handicap He made a big own goal, and when he was about to scold a few unprofessional handicap, he found out that in the real game - he scored a goal. We introduced the chaos of Chinese football almost like a cannonball.Forgive me in this book, but in fact there are still a lot of gambling terms to introduce to you. This is not only to help you understand what we are describing, but also to persuade your acquaintances to turn around when a term pops up suddenly in the future.

Gambling is actually betting on human nature, and there is no technology at all.Wang Daming (real name withheld) who lost his fortune in gambling said: "If you win, you will feel that the money comes easily. Even if you stop playing, when the money is used up, you will remember that you still have such a skill' Skills'. If you go east and west, you will definitely lose, and if you lose...have you ever seen someone who can stop playing after losing?" Now when it comes to handicap, people must attribute this term to gambling, but in fact, handicap has absolutely nothing to do with gambling at the beginning.Founded 19 years ago, the Chinese stock market, which has experienced several ups and downs, unceremoniously snatched this top spot. Up to now, you can still find handicap, fortune, and consulting websites that have nothing to do with gambling. Words such as buying order, selling order, false offer, firm offer, and even market makers are common terms in this securities market.

Founded in 1998, the Macau Lottery Co., Ltd. can be regarded as a benchmark for Asian football betting, because in the decades before that, the sports betting that originated in London, the center of Europe, is most familiar with football and horse racing, so this book " The Journal of Horse Racing and Football Prospects has become a popular publication in the study of Chinese football lottery in the 21st century.Very different from the European sports betting market, the odds-based betting game popular in Europe has become the most recognized sports betting game in the Asian market and even the global market after the transformation of the Macau Lottery Company.

What are the similarities and differences between odds and odds? What they have in common is the payout ratio. The difference is that the algorithm for the payout ratio is different.For example, for a match between Roma and Parma in Serie A, the British bookmaker will offer the odds of the home team winning 1.70/drawing 3.30/losing 5.00, that is to say, you take out 100 yuan to bet on the winning In the three results of a tie or a loss, the future income obtained is different. If the main team wins, you can only win 70 yuan for 100 yuan. If the two sides draw, you can win 230 yuan. If the home team loses, you can win 400 yuan.

In the Macau lottery company, if they will open the game for the home team to handicap the hemisphere, then this hemisphere is the handicap. When you bet on Rome, if Rome wins, you can only win your bet amount The bonus (regardless of the water level, detailed later), and when Rome draws or loses to Parma, the betting amount on Rome will be lost, otherwise the betting on Parma will get all the bonus.By analogy, if there is a handicap of 1.5 goals, that is to say, the side of the handicap must win at least two goals to win, otherwise it will be a loser. The water level is actually the commission of the gambling company.As a gaming company, the significance of opening a handicap is to provide a platform for bettors to participate, so it is understandable to rely on this platform to obtain commissions.

This is the same as the baccarat game in Macau casinos that stipulates that the party who bet on the banker must pay 5% of the amount to the casino when he wins the prize.Of course, you can see that in other casino games, it seems that the casino does not draw bonuses. The banker can let the player ask for a card first, resulting in a bust. This series is the natural advantage of the casino. Since 1998, Aocai has established a football betting water level controlled at 1.85. Generally speaking, Aocai draws an average commission of 15% for each game. In order to compete in order, the Aocai once also adjusted the total betting level of the Premier League to more than 1.90, that is, only 10% of the commission is drawn, which is not a small profit for the annual betting amount of more than 10 billion yuan.

Quantified to the match between Rome and Parma, the Aocai handicap is that Rome will hand over the hemisphere to Parma. Even in this case, there are still many people who are optimistic about Rome, so the handicap for betting on Rome is still hemisphere, but the corresponding water level is just 0.85 water, and the water level of betting on Parma is 1.00, that is to say, if Rome wins, then betting on Rome 100 yuan can only get a bonus of 100×0.85=85 yuan, that is to say, there are 100-85=15 The yuan is withdrawn by AOC as a commission; on the contrary, if Rome draws with Parma, then those who bet on Parma will get a bonus of 100×1.00=100 yuan.

A, B, C, the units represented in the gambling circle are ten thousand, one thousand, one hundred.Using letters to represent the amount was not an invention of bankers at the earliest.Zhang Jingjiang is the grandson of Nanxun rich man Zhang Songxian. When he was young, he rushed into the sea of ​​fire to save others and broke his hip bone and became disabled.The first time he returned to China with Sun Baoqi, the Minister in France, he met Sun Yat-sen on the boat. In order to support the revolution, Zhang gave the latter 30,000 silver dollars on the spot.Later, they agreed that they would send him a telegram whenever necessary, A, B, C, D, E...representing 1, 2...50,000.Later, Sun Yat-sen experimented several times, and it was not bad.

If you understand the basic explanation of handicap and water level, then you may ask whether the handicap and water level remain the same?Tell you that handicap, water level and stock trading are similar. Although it cannot be done at a different price for each transaction like stocks, handicap and water level are actually bookmakers and punters, or even certain people. It is a barometer of the game between these interest groups. Still take the above game as an example, if starting from last Saturday, the initial market (terms, referring to the initial handicap opened by a bookmaker for a certain game) between Rome and Parma is half-one for Rome, if you are optimistic about Rome Bettors flocked to make the funds betting on Rome reach or exceed a limit of the gaming company, which is similar to an insurance company receiving an insurance policy that is too heavy. The company will adopt the reinsurance mode of operation.

This method is also applicable to bookmakers. Bookmakers can place part of their bets on other bookmakers. This can certainly reduce risks, but it may also lead to loss of profits. Therefore, when a bookmaker’s betting amount is not absolutely large, In the early stage, we will try to reduce the payout level of betting on Rome, such as reducing the initial 0.85 water to 0.80 or even lower. After that, we may adjust the handicap from half a goal to one goal, which will often reduce the bettors who want to bet on Rome. The idea of ​​betting on Rome. Generally speaking, the range of this kind of handicap adjustment in the world will not be very large. Due to the gaming company's grasp of the major events, the range of change from the first to the final will not exceed 3 levels, that is, from flat half to half one. Amplitude.However, this record has been repeatedly broken in the Chinese Football League where football holidays are rampant. (Typical case, Liaoning 2 to 3 Shandong in the Super League in 2004 above)

According to the statistical law of football matches, the number of goals scored in a game is generally more than 2 goals and less than 3 goals, so the competition around the median value of 2.5 was born. 2.5 balls will be used as the dividing line, if it exceeds, it will be large, and if it is less than, it will be small.However, the particularity of the Chinese league determines that sometimes the median value needs to be raised. For example, before a game with news, the number of over and under goals reached 3.5 goals, that is, the two sides scored 4 goals before it was considered a over goal. In 2004, the Singapore Lottery Company intended to cooperate with the Chinese nationals to travel to Singapore, and began to guess about the Chinese Super League. Questions were raised about the score of the game, and some scores similar to ice hockey games were directly included in the list of suspects. Perhaps it was at that time that news about the Chinese team's alleged match-fixing began to circulate in Singapore, until Wang Xin and others made it known. The mystery of big and small goals has nothing to do with strength. In this year's match between Qingdao Hailifeng and Sichuan in the Chinese League One, in order to hit a big goal with a big goal of 3.5 goals, the Qingdao team did not hesitate to lob their own goal. Sealing, this term was first seen in chess games or in the God of Gamblers series directed by Wang Jing. Whenever a chess player takes a break to go to the toilet or before the last card is revealed, this technique can be seen. The big bell-like utensils buckle the chessboard or gambling table.However, in football betting, there will also be a situation of closing the game. The premise of this situation is that the gaming company (banker) is aware of a sudden news or encounters explosive unilateral betting. It is a risk-averse way to reduce risks. . Specifically, in 2004, the Aocai opened the Chinese Super League handicap for the first time. Since many doubtful matches were listed as blacklisted by the Aocai in 2003, several strong teams, including Shanghai Shenhua, were not listed by the Aocai. The lottery opens.In the opening game, the Aocai also adopted a very safe method, that is, the market is only opened an hour before the game. First, it can understand the game information more accurately, and second, it can reduce betting and reduce risks. However, in actual operation Among them, a trader once told the author that one hour before the game opened, he found that there were many doubtful bets, so he closed the game several times. The actual bets received did not exceed 1 million yuan, but the final result still made Aocai Lost more than 600,000 yuan. Crazy Pan, this seems to be a made-up name, but it actually appeared in the Chinese Football League. Has been "crazy". The term "baiting" is often used by some pseudo-odds experts, which means that bookmakers seem to have insight into the passwords of all games, and then offer more attractive handicap to attract bettors to bet on the wrong one. party.For example, in the match between Rome and Parma mentioned above, it is normal for the home team to handicap half or even one goal, but when the bookmaker decides that Rome will only handicap a half goal, even if it is a tie, betting on Rome will only In the case of losing half, many bettors will think in reverse, whether the dealer's handicap is tricking us into betting on Rome, and betting on Parma under such an analysis and judgment. In the Chinese Super League, there is no shortage of such precedents. The "accidental" draw between Qingdao and Shanghai Shenhua in 2008 was a "bait" by the dealer when the result was already known. The so-called backlash means that the handicap is normal, and there is no abnormality in the pre-match betting, but under the control of certain interest groups, the result of the game is contrary to common sense.It is common for a strong team to suddenly fail to attack, or even completely reverse the relationship between victory and defeat. Before the game, it is not difficult to predict that the home team will win by two goals. It is unpopular, but if behind the unpopularity is implicated in the handicap, then the theory of reversal is valid. This was the case in the match between Yunnan Hongta and Qingdao Manatee in 2002. Rolling ball, also known as playing the field, this is a new game that emerged with the rise of online betting.Before 2003, gambling in various places was generally realized by telephone quotations among big and small dealers. Even the most formal Macau Lottery Co., Ltd. has still retained the method of telephone betting. This company is under the supervision of the Macau government. The strict management of the gaming company is staggering. The computer room of the company has kept the recordings of all telephone bettors from 1998 to the present. Guo Zhihao, the former CEO of AOCAI, and his distinguished guests were also helpless because of "rejecting entry to important work areas". According to people from AOC, keeping recordings is of great significance for safeguarding the interests of bettors and gaming companies.As far as Aocai handicap is played, the betting is nothing more than the upper handicap or the lower handicap, the big ball or the small ball, between Mandarin and Cantonese, and even a temporary idea conversion may bring about a direct relationship between winning and losing the next day.We have verified this statement in many casinos in Macau. When you sit in front of the blackjack table, even if you get 20 points, it is impossible to ask for cards under normal circumstances, but the croupier still asks you to make a gesture of no cards, because The camera above the gaming table will record all this to prevent anyone from cheating or regretting their cards. The significance of in-play is that it gives bettors the opportunity to recover their losses from pre-match betting, but many times it will also make you die in the same ditch in a row.Take the match between Rome and Parma as an example. Before the game, you may bet on a handicap of Rome. During the game, Parma scored first. At this time, the bookmaker will offer that Rome will continue to handicap in the case of 0 to 1. The preparation of the hemisphere means that as long as you continue to bet on Rome, once Rome equalizes, you can win the bet. Even if the pre-match bet loses, you can keep your capital. If you place a big bet when you are behind by 1, you may win a lot and lose a lot, but if Rome continues to lose the ball, every subsequent bet you will lose. In the football betting circle, you can often hear the story of losing a game and making a profit for a week. The trigger point of this story is often a case where a strong team suddenly fails and loses miserably to a weaker away team. In 2004, there was a La Liga game. It was a team like Real Sociedad, which was the runner-up of La Liga the year before, against a mid-lower team. Due to the away game, the banker made a tie for Real Sociedad, that is, as long as Real Sociedad If you don’t lose, those who bet on Royal Sociedad will not lose, but the actual development of the matter is that Royal Sociedad lost 0 to 4. According to each time a goal is scored, if the bettor adds another bet, the bettor loses at least 3 times the stake. Of course, such a live ball case also has a comic development result, that is, when the strong team falls behind and achieves a goal overtake, then for the additional betting after each goal is scored, there will be a continuous profit result, but according to several Based on years of game result analysis and psychological research, there are very few such cases. There is no ball, or there is no demand.For those who participated in football betting around 2002, referred to as gambling, watching the Korea-Japan World Cup is undoubtedly a visual feast and a manifestation of the supreme sense of honor. Feeling that watching football is just a luxury, it would be more practical to play some lottery.It is no exaggeration to say that among the people from all walks of life who have participated in gambling in the past 10 years, at least 80% to 90% of them entered the water around 2002. Since then, each competition will develop a group of people. It is also true that there are many players who are shuffled out.Since the World Cup in 1998 (Aocai was born), the previous World Cups and European Championships are the most likely time for the gambling group to grow explosively, which is not at the same level as the European League and Champions League every season. Watching football with a fan is completely different from watching it with a gambler. To a gambler who bet on small balls, the listless play of both sides is the best, so a 0-0 game is in his eyes. For the gambler who bet on the big ball, when the two teams each score a goal, he will call it a "drawing card". As long as any team scores a goal, he will be safe won.In this case, compared with those who support either side under the original mentality, such gamblers are the fastest growing group in recent years. The popularity of the score network was triggered around 2001. Before that, there was only one English website of LIVESCORE, which could quickly check the live score. Nowadays, no one can tell how many live score websites exist on the Internet. "Jiujiu" has become one of these The year represents the most representative voice of the goal. The momentary change in the score created sorrow and joy. In the 2004 European Championship group match between Britain and France, a punter who had previously lost "can't afford it" placed a heavy bet on the England team, which was tied half. After 90 minutes, England lead 1-0.This gentleman immediately gathers friends and celebrates with dinner.In stoppage time, Zidane took a free kick to tie the score at 1-1; at the kick-off, Gerrard's erratic pass back directly caused Henry to single-handedly.James, who attacked, had no other choice but to bring Henry down, a penalty kick!Zidane scored a penalty kick, scored twice, turned defeat into victory, and turned the world around!Thousands of miles away, this gentleman instantly changed from a winner to a penniless loser, and his friends didn't know how to comfort him, so they had to leave. It should be said that the past 10 years have seen the most rapid development of sports betting. With the improvement of the Internet and information collection methods, the game between gaming companies and bettors has become more and more subtle. 1. Widening of opening events. In 1998, Aocai only opened for the Premier League, Serie A, Bundesliga, La Liga, and Ligue 1. In addition, it only opened for the World Cup, European Championships, European Champions Cup, European Cup Winners' Cup and UEFA Cup; after 2002 , the top leagues of most countries in the world are included in the opening range (the most representative ones are the Nordic League, the Japanese League, etc.). The opening of the league; after 2006, peripheral bookmakers active in mainland China opened the market for almost all events with certain results. 2. Diversification of opening projects. Before 2005, Aocai and general gaming companies only offered handicap and over/under handicap, most of which were guesses with score fluctuations.However, with the advent of the 2006 World Cup, with the help of some practices of British bookmakers, especially outside bookmakers, the corner kicks, red cards, yellow cards, offsides, substitutions, and even which side kicks off first and which side changes players in the game will all be opened. Out of the disk. 3. The opening game is disordered.This is reflected in the peripheral gaming companies, that is, the opening event even penetrated into the youth competition. It is rumored that there is an event similar to the Bud Cup held in Xi’an. At 9:00 in the morning, counting the staff and related personnel, there are no more than 30 people in the stands. , but a reporter at the scene opened the score website on his own computer, and even "discovered" the goal before his own eyes. The reporter had to suspect that the score website indirectly guided the goal.Looking around, there doesn't seem to be any sign of a live score being provided by anyone involved. The development of Aocai is not strong, but the competition of peripheral gaming companies is indeed in full swing. From the humanization of website settings, to the development of preferential policies for customers, to the construction of betting methods that are not only on the Internet, it is understood that most of the gaming sites currently You can even make convenient betting by using mobile phone WAP. The game between bookmakers and bettors is actually an invisible banker-player game, which is completely different from casino gamblers versus dealers. One foot is one foot high" is a clear proof. Although score websites and football websites all over the world now have countless temptations to change order advertisements, in terms of technical defense and anti-hacking technology of major peripheral websites, most of them belong to the level of telephone fraud. However, high technology has always been a life and death line between gaming companies and gamblers. There is a strange thing that happened in a youth game: a reporter on the scene, because he usually gambled, saw the online handicap in Xi'an that day... He looked up in bewilderment, because the two teams hadn't scored at all at this time, he thought that the handicap was a big own goal, and when he was about to scold the unprofessional handicap, he found that in the real game - a goal was scored , and it was the team that scored the goal on the handicap, but the time difference was 5 seconds.From then on, he began to pay attention to the time difference between the handicap goals and the real game goals, and found that many games were scored according to the time displayed on the handicap, but some games in the middle were a few seconds behind the handicap.The handicap will not predict the real progress of the game. There is only one reason to explain: this kind of goal is manipulated in advance. Around 2006, when the Hong Kong police cracked down on peripheral gambling, it was revealed that a group of professional gamblers used ultra-fast fiber optic cables to enter the amount of bets when dangerous balls appeared, and took advantage of the TV broadcast network and their own speed. At the end of the game, the big ball bets were repeatedly entered into the host computer of the gaming company. This alone made illegal profits of tens of millions of Hong Kong dollars in just a few months; Intermittent improvement, from the sealing of dangerous goals, to the delayed confirmation of dangerous ball bets, to the cancellation of team machine bets, etc., in order to deal with various teams or individuals who attempt to obtain illegal profits. Hitting water, a term that first appeared among European gaming companies, has also become a term in the mouths of underground gambling gangs in recent years. Depending on the changes in water levels between different companies, through different betting combinations, it is guaranteed that there will be no losses in itself. Obtaining stable profits under such circumstances is the reason for the existence of this method, which has been in the ascendant in recent years.However, with the change in the way of bettors, fetching water is not only a manual labor, but many group operations are automatic betting after installing different software on dozens of computers and reading the water levels and odds of each gaming company in real time.As the gaming company, it also launched a tenacious counterattack by suddenly canceling the bets, and once some bets are canceled, it will also cause heavy losses to the customers who fetched water. This is a later story. At around 9:00 pm on March 13, 2003, the Macau Lottery Company historically opened a handicap for League One A on its website. In order to occupy the mainland market, Aocai made full preparations for the opening of League One A. The AOC website has three versions in traditional Chinese, simplified Chinese and English to accept bets from all parties, while the Thai, Portuguese and Japanese versions prepared for the same period have given way to the simplified Chinese version. However, after 10 A-A games in the opening 4 rounds, a director of AOC said: "From the current point of view, the underground bookmakers in the Mainland have had a great impact on us. We have learned from relevant parties that the illegal bookmakers in the Mainland are now Quite a few, they took private bets and diverted a large area of ​​AOC’s business, and the total amount of bets returned to AOC may be less than 1/20 of the real betting amount.” The executive was worried during the interview and kept reminding , It is very dangerous for retail investors to bet on Heizhuang.But the dealers in the mainland can't control so much. They are taking advantage of the heat generated by Aocai's A-A opening to wantonly manipulate the game. The problem is much more serious than imagined. Starting from the 17th round of the league, the Aocai no longer dared to open games in Shaanxi. After the National Day, the 18th round of the A-League started. Finally, there was no market for Sunday’s game on Friday night, and the opening games shrank sharply. Only 4 games were opened. Sichuan vs. Dalian, Yunnan vs. Shaanxi and Chongqing vs. Bayi were all due to rumors too many and was forced to give up.In the last round of the league that year, the Aocai only opened the derby against Shanghai Shenhua and Shanghai International. The Aocai opened only one game in a round of matches. This is something that has never happened this season. It should be A signal that League A has been out of control. In addition to the troubles caused by the black dealers in the mainland, what makes Aocai powerless is the unimaginable 2003 event of losing and entering the Chinese Super League.