Chapter 4 Chapter Four

Gale said quickly, "Good afternoon, Dr. Seldon. I...I..." "You didn't think we would meet today, did you? Normally, we don't have to rush to meet. But now, if we want to hire you, we have to act as soon as possible. Now we want to find someone, but it's getting harder and harder." Easy." "I do not understand." "You were chatting with a guy in the Observation Tower just now, weren't you?" "Yes, his name is Jarrell. But other than that, I don't know anything about him." "His name doesn't mean anything. What matters is that he's the Public Safety Commissioner who followed you all the way from the space station to here."

"But why? I'm getting more and more confused." "Did that man not mention me to you?" Gail said with some hesitation, "He called you Seldon the Crow's Mouth." "Did he say why?" "He said because you always predict disaster." "I do—what does Trantor mean to you?" Everyone seemed to ask Gail how he felt about Trantor, and he couldn't think of another adjective, so he said it again: "Magnificent." "That's your first impression, from a psychohistorical point of view?" "It never occurred to me to use it to analyze this kind of problem."

"Young man, before our collaboration has come to an end, you'll have learned to analyze everything psychohistorically, and will take it for granted. Watch—" Seldon took out a computer clipboard from the pouch hanging on his belt—it is said that he also kept one under his pillow so that he could take it easily when he suddenly woke up in the middle of the night. The shiny gray exterior has been slightly worn.Seldon's fingers had already developed age spots, but they could still move nimbly among the densely packed keys, and many red symbols immediately appeared on the display screen above the computing board.

Seldon pointed to the display and said to Gale, "This represents the current state of the empire." Then he waited for Gale's reaction. Gale finally said, "That's certainly not a complete performance." "That's right, it's not complete." Seldon said, "I'm glad you didn't blindly accept my words, but this approximation is enough to demonstrate my proposition, do you accept that?" "I will verify the derivation process of the function later, but it seems to be correct." Gail is very careful, he must avoid possible pitfalls.

"Very well, let's add the known probabilities of other factors, including the assassination of the emperor, the rebellion of the governor, the cyclical cycle of contemporary economic depression, the decline in the planetary development rate..." Seldon continued with his calculations.Every time he mentions a factor, new symbols will appear on the display screen, and then be integrated into the original function, so that the function is continuously expanded and changed. Gail interrupted him only once: "I don't understand why this 'set transformation' works?"

So Seldon did it all over again, slowly. Gail added: "But your practice is a 'social operation' prohibited by theory." "Very well, your reaction was fast, but still not fast enough. In this case, allow me to do this and let me do it again with function expansion." This time the process became very long. After the result came out, Gail said humbly: "You are right, I understand now." Seldon finally stopped and said to Gale, "This is three centuries from Trantor. How do you explain it? Huh?" He tilted his head to one side, waiting quietly for Gale's answer.

Gail couldn't believe it: "Totally devastated! But...but how is this possible? Trantor never..." Seldon was suddenly full of excitement and excitement, and he didn't look like an old man at all.He snapped, "Hey, don't believe me, you've seen the process that led to this result. Forget about the math notation for now, and say it in plain English." Gale then said: "As Trantor became more and more specialized, it became more and more vulnerable and defenseless. Moreover, as the administrative center of the empire, it became the first coveted .When the succession of the throne became more and more uncertain, the friction between the several big families became more and more intense. The sense of social responsibility disappeared..."

"Enough. Now tell me, what are the chances that Trantor will be completely destroyed within three centuries?" "I can't see it." "You must be able to do 'field differentiation'?" Gal felt compelled to do it, but Seldon didn't hand him the computing board.At this time, his eyes were still a foot away from the computer board, so he had no choice but to bite the bullet and start calculating in his head. After a while, his forehead was already sweating. Finally he came up with an estimate: "About eighty-five percent?" "Not bad," Seldon pursed his lower lip, and then continued, "But it's not good either. The correct value is 925 per thousand."

Gail said, "That's why they call you Crow's Mouth? How come I haven't read that from your papers in academic journals?" "Of course you can't read it. These cannot be published. Think about it, how could the empire easily let this kind of wavering information leak out? This is just a simple demonstration of psychohistory. However, the calculated Some of the results were still leaked to the hands of the nobles." "That's not good." "Not really, all of this is in our calculations." "Is that why they investigated me?" "Yes, as long as it is related to my plan, it will be the subject of investigation."

"Dr. Seldon, are you in danger?" "Oh, that's right. There's a seventeen-in-a-thousand chance that I'll be executed, and of course that doesn't stop my plans. We've already taken that into account. Well, let's not talk about that, You're coming to see me at Trantor University tomorrow, aren't you?" "I will definitely go."