Chapter 21 fourth quarter

Candib was pleased with his performance, and the words did have the intended force.The chief speaker didn't expect him to make such an astonishing remark, and he was in a panic when he heard it.From this moment on, Jiandibo has seized the mastership.Even if he had the slightest doubt about this reversal, when Sandys blurted out the next sentence, this doubt disappeared immediately. Candiba bet he already had the upper hand, and he decided to pursue the victory without giving the chief speaker any respite.He said quickly, in a persuasive tone: "Chief speaker, it is generally believed that the Seldon plan has undergone a major distortion of the partial century, and that it was Prim Pavel who brought it back on track, but this is only It's just a belief. If you study the primordial light body carefully, you can find that the partial blue line did not disappear completely until twenty years after Pavel's death, and since then, there has never been any blue line. We It is possible to attribute this to generations of chief speakers after Paffer, but that is unlikely."

"Improbable? Even though none of us can compare to Pafo, but—why is it unlikely?" "May I be allowed to demonstrate, Chief Speaker? Using the mathematics of psychohistory, I can demonstrate quite clearly that the chances of a complete disappearance of the eccentric blue line are too small to be nearly impossible, no matter how hard the Second Foundation tries. My demonstration will take half an hour and you'll have to pay attention from beginning to end, so if you don't have the time or interest, you don't have to say yes to my request. Another opportunity I have is to request a speakers' roundtable, Demonstrate it openly to all speakers on the spot. But that would waste my time and cause unnecessary debate."

"Yes, and it might embarrass me—show me now. But I'll warn you—" the Chief Speaker tried to salvage, "if you show me something worthless, I'll never forget it as long as I live. " "If it's really worthless," Jian Dibo easily defuses the opponent's offensive with a proud tone, "I will resign to you on the spot." The entire demonstration was much longer than scheduled because the lead speaker pressed on with a lot of math from beginning to end. Since Jiandibo is extremely proficient in using the "twilight body", it saves a little time, otherwise the whole process would have been dragged on even longer.The twilight body can display any part of the Seldon plan on a full screen, without using a wall as a screen, and without a console as big as a desk.The device was only officially launched a decade ago, and the chief speaker never learned the tricks to operate it.Candidate knew that, and the Chief Speaker knew he couldn't hide it.

Chandib hung the twilight body on his thumb, and operated the controls with his other four fingers.His fingers moved calmly, as if playing some kind of musical instrument. (He actually wrote a short article discussing the parallels.) The equations that Gendible produced (or found easily) with the twilight body seemed like many snakes flying in the air as he continued to move forward and backward as he explained.When necessary, he can call out "definitions" at any time, list "postulates", and draw two-dimensional and three-dimensional diagrams. (Of course he can project the "multi-dimensional relational formula" onto two or three-dimensional charts.)

Candiba's clear and incisive explanation finally overwhelmed the chief speaker.Finally, he asked with a sincere heart: "I don't remember seeing such an analysis. Who made this?" "Chief speaker, this is my own work. I have also published the mathematical basis for this." "Excellent originality, Candidate Speaker. You can do something like this. Once I die, or step down, the next generation of Chief Speaker may well be you." "I hadn't thought of that, chief speaker—but since you can't believe it, I take it back. In fact, I did, and wished I could be chief speaker. Because Whoever succeeds me in this position will have to adopt a plan that only I know."

"Well said," interjected the chief speaker, "improper modesty is dangerous. What kind of program? Perhaps the current chief speaker can do the same. Even if I'm too old to be as effective as you Breakthrough, but at least still able to accept your guidance." This is really quite a generous concession, Jian Dibo did not expect it at all, and suddenly felt warm in his heart, although he knew that this was exactly the reaction the old man expected. "Thank you, Chief Speaker, because I need your help so badly. Without your wise leadership, I would not have been able to manage the round table myself." (obviously reciprocal) "So, I think you've learned from what I just said It can be seen from the demonstration that the countermeasures we adopt cannot correct the deviation century, nor can all the deviation phenomena disappear from now on.”

"This is clear to me," said the Chief Speaker, "assuming your mathematics is correct, then to get the Seldon plan, as we know it, fully back on track, and to continue to develop flawlessly, We'd have to be able to predict the responses of minorities, or even individuals, with reasonable accuracy for that to be possible." "Exactly. Since the mathematics of psychohistory cannot do this, deviations cannot disappear, much less never reappear. Now you should understand why I just said: The flaw of Seldon's plan is perfection Flawless." The chief speaker made a conclusion: "Now there are only two possibilities. One is that there is indeed a deviation phenomenon in Seldon's plan, and the other is that your mathematical derivation is wrong. Because I must admit that over the past century or so, Seldon The plan did not show any deviations, so the only possibility is that your deduction has caused problems, but I have not been able to find any fallacies or unintentional mistakes."

"You're making a dichotomous error," said Candib. "You've ruled out the third possibility. In fact, both can be true at the same time, which means that there is no longer any bias in Seldon's plan, and my The mathematical derivation is also completely correct, although according to my deduction, the former is absolutely impossible." "I don't see any third possibility." "Suppose the Seldon Project was governed by some advanced psychohistorical method that went beyond our current achievements and could predict the reactions of small groups of people, perhaps even individuals. On this premise, Only under this premise, according to my mathematical derivation, can the Seldon Plan be free from all deviations!"

The chief speaker was silent for a while (by Second Foundation standards) before he spoke again: "I've never heard of that advanced psychohistorical method you call, listen Your tone, I'm pretty sure you don't have concepts either. If you and I don't know, then some speaker or speakers have developed this 'micro-psychohistory' - let me call it that - and can The chances of keeping it a secret from the rest of the round table are almost infinitesimally small. Do you agree with me?" "I agree." "Then we are left with two possibilities. One is that your analysis is wrong, and the other is that 'micro-psychohistory' does exist, but it is not in the hands of the Second Foundation."

"Exactly, chief speaker, the second possibility must be the truth." "Can you prove the truth of this assertion?" "I can't prove it in any formal way, but please recall, hasn't there been a person in history who can directly affect the entire Seldon plan by manipulating individuals?" "I guess you mean mules." "Yes, of course it is him." "Mules specialize in sabotage, but the problem now is that Seldon's plan is going too smoothly, too close to perfection, and your derivation proves that this is almost impossible. What you should be looking for now is an 'anti-musle'— —someone who could rewrite the Seldon plan like a mule, but with the opposite motive, not to break it but to make it better."

"Exactly, chief speaker, I just hate myself for not being able to put it into words like this. What the hell is a mule? He's a mutant, and where did he come from? Why does he have that power? No one knows The real answer. Couldn't there be more like it?" "Obviously not. The most famous feature of a mule is that he is sterile, and that's where his name comes from. Do you think that's just a legend?" "I don't mean the descendants of the mules, I mean, there may be a large group of people, at least a large group at present, all with abilities similar to the mules, and the mules are traitors to that group. The group For their own reasons, instead of wanting to destroy the Seldon plan, people wholeheartedly try to maintain it." "Galaxy above, why should they maintain the Seldon plan?" "Why should we maintain it? The second empire we plan is for us, or our successors, to be the decision-makers. If there are other more intelligent organizations maintaining this plan, they will never The decision-making is left to us, and they will be in charge, but what is the end goal? What kind of Second Empire are they going to build for us, shouldn't we try to figure it out?" "How are you going to proceed?" "Well, why did the Mayor of Terminus exile Glenn Trevize? By doing this, she just let that potentially dangerous character run amok freely in the galaxy. If she did it out of humanitarian motives , I absolutely do not believe it. History has shown that the leaders of the First Foundation were all realists, which means that they generally acted without regard to morality. In fact, one of their legendary heroes, Cypher Harding, Even openly challenged moral concepts. So, I think those 'anti-Mules' - I also borrow your term - have extended their influence to Terminus, and the mayor must be under their control. I believe Trevize has been They absorbed, and I also believe, that he was the first wave of death squads to attack us and would pose great danger to us." At last the chief speaker had a chance to reply: "My lord, you may be right, but how do we convince the round table?" "Chief speaker, you underestimate your authority too much."