Home Categories detective reasoning Murder of Officials 1 · Deduction of the Prince of Logic

Chapter 3 Chapter two

There are two ways of thinking in mathematics, one is inductive and the other is deductive. Induction means that you measure a number of triangles and find that their interior angles sum to 180 degrees, so you deduce that the interior angles of all triangles sum to 180 degrees. Deduction means that the sum of the interior angles of a triangle is 180 degrees, which has become a truth, so if you take any triangle, you can infer that the sum of its interior angles is 180 degrees. Xu Ce has always used the deductive method to think, and he rejects the inductive method. Because the induction method is not a logically inevitable proof, there are natural small probability events.You can't say whose son has set up Weixun, whose son is the richest disabled person, just infer that the big bosses above are all pocketed, and none of them are good people.Maybe there were good people among them too, too good to be obvious?

Induction is the summary of experience, and deduction is logical reasoning. Experience is often easy to paralyze people. Only if the logic is correct can it be trusted. This principle applies to everything, including sin. But he also understands that no matter how perfect the plan is, it still cannot prevent the occurrence of small probability events. For example, when he was in action, a car suddenly drove over; Or there is a fool in the grass next to him who overslept in the afternoon and woke up just at that time; Or the security guard in the concierge suddenly ran to Fengqi Road to get some air on a whim at that time.

Although this kind of thing is a small probability, once it happens, it will be a complete tragedy. The essence of Xu Ce's plan is not to eliminate the black swan incident, but to take care of every detail within his ability. He has practiced many times, including with dummy, with live pigs of the same weight, as well as stepping on the ground. As long as he is given 35 seconds, he can complete this operation. After many days of continuous tracking and waiting, finally came that night. Xu Ce looked down at his watch, it was almost 11 o'clock.He was standing under a tree on the roadside about 400 meters away from the intersection in the southern section of Fengqi Road, hiding in the darkness behind the tree.

On Fengqi Road in front of me, there are street lights every 20 meters. The street lights are very bright and the light is very good.This is a disadvantage. But fortunately, it is winter now, and at this point in time, there have been no people or cars on the road for more than 20 minutes.This is a plus. In the cold wind, he kept pinching his fingers and turning his neck from time to time to maintain the necessary body flexibility so that he could complete everything within 35 seconds. Today is an opportunity, I hope everything goes as expected.Even if he is unsuccessful, he is not worried about being exposed, he has already made a careful plan.

At this time, a car on Haiyan South Road turned into Fengqi Road with strong lights. He took out the prepared night vision spectroscope from his pocket and held it up to his eyes. ——Only a spectroscope can see clearly under strong light. This Audi, this license plate, this person, and a person...it's today! The speed is fast. — You have to stop the car to do it.This he has already arranged. Xu Ce quickly put the binoculars back into his pocket, and picked up two transparent plastic bags, one containing two bottles of Moutai, one containing eight soft Zhonghua sticks, and the top containing a limited edition Liqun Tobacco.

He walked out of the road and walked forward pretending to be nonchalant. When the Audi car drove tens of meters away from him, it suddenly stepped on the brakes and lowered the speed of the car.Because the driver of the Audi car has already discovered that there is a piece of broken beer bottles scattered on the road not far ahead, and all drivers will not let the tires foolishly press the beer bottles. After stepping on the brakes, the Audi car turned to the left and went around from the left, but when he was about to accelerate again, he found that there were also broken beer bottles in the lane ahead on the left.

In this way, he could only step on the brake again and go around to the right.And Xu Ce happened to be in front at this time. Xu Ce glanced at the car, pretending to have just reacted, stood in front of the left front of the car, waved at the car, and shouted excitedly: "Ju Li, Ju Li..." The car stopped, about five meters away from where Xu Ce was standing at the moment, which was a good distance, within the range he expected. The car window opened, and a middle-aged man with a slight alcohol smell poked his head out, staring at him strangely: "Who are you, what are you doing?"

"Ah, Director Li," he said while gesturing to the bag in his hand, flattering him in his native dialect, "I'm Xu Zihao's cousin." The middle-aged man glanced at the bag in his hand, without showing any expression. As the deputy director of the County Public Security Bureau, he is definitely a powerful figure in the local area. In the dinner party on weekdays, anyone who can sit with him is worth Tens of millions of big bosses.He has always been used to giving gifts, how can a few bags of cigarettes and wine impress him?Hearing the name "Xu Zihao", he seemed to be a little impressed, showing a slightly puzzled thought.

Xu Ce hurriedly continued: "My cousin Xu Zihao stabbed people from the urban construction company in the first half of the year and locked him in. Young people are impulsive and ignorant. My uncle told me many times that I have done business in the United States for more than ten years and made a lot of money. Some money, but we have no contacts in our hometown, so we can’t think of a way to get people. After asking a lot of people, they all said that this matter is difficult, and probably only Bureau Li can help. I can only beg you. Go to you The work unit is not very good. I can only visit your house, but there is no one in your house. The community security said that you have not come back. I called the people in your work unit and said that you went out to eat. I want to go out to eat and come back always Hurry up, I waited at the gate of your community for a while to see that it was late, and I was about to go back, but I didn't expect to bump into you on the road."

"Is there no one at home? My wife isn't here?" He was puzzled. "Sister-in-law is at home? Am I looking for the wrong one? I also heard about your address. Is it in Unit 6, District 3?" "Oh, then you're wrong, it's Unit 6, District 5." He smiled. "Tsk tsk, no wonder I couldn't find it. Now that I finally see you, it's not in vain." A polite smile appeared on the middle-aged man's face, he raised his head and thought for a while, and said, "I remember Xu Zihao you mentioned, it seems to be a matter of demolition, and someone from the urban construction company was stabbed?"

"exactly." "This matter is difficult. I'm not in charge of this case, you know?" "I know, I know, this matter is quite embarrassing. I asked many people, and they all said that only you can do it. It must cost some money to get someone. I know that, as long as people can come out." "It's not a matter of money or not—" He seemed a little impatient, and officials at his level were very taboo about gift givers they didn't know. Xu Ce hurriedly passed the bag forward: "You take this little thing first, and there are a few supermarket cards." He pushed the bag forward, but found that it was beyond the height of the car window and couldn't be stuffed in. ——This is his intentional design.If the things could be easily stuffed in, if Director Li took the things and said that we would discuss the matter tomorrow, but he didn't get out of the car himself, then Xu Ce would be unable to do anything. Director Li sneered in his heart that this person is a country bumpkin who came back from the United States. People who have never met before ask for something from themselves. Is there anyone who gives gifts like this?I really don't understand the domestic rules at all. Li Ju stretched out his hand to evade: "Let's talk about this later, you take the things back first." Xu Ce hurriedly begged: "Leader, please do me a favor. The things are not worth much. You take them first. This is my only hope. I have been waiting all night." He showed a distressed face. As the saying goes, if you reach out and don't hit a smiling face, officials won't embarrass the atmosphere even if they don't accept the gift, and they won't deliberately show their face to the gift giver.An official of his level knows this well. Out of politeness, he said: "Get in the car and go to my house and tell me that this matter involves the urban construction company. I will tell you what to do." "Oh, that's fine too." Xu Ce got into the passenger seat on the right hand side, put the bag against the middle, and took out a cigarette while talking: "It's getting late, I will visit your house another day, as long as you are willing to help, this matter will be done. Let me briefly explain Condition……" As he spoke, he reached out for a cigarette and was ready to cover the steering wheel with his hand to prevent it from pressing on the horn. At the same time, he also needed to notice that after the target was brought down, the target's foot released the brake, and he needed to Immediately shift the steering column to the park gear to prevent walking slopes... He has practiced these movements countless times, and his hands are very stable. No cars passed by during the whole incident, and the action took a total of 55 seconds, regardless of the previous dialogue. Because the first situation in his original plan was that Ju Li got out of the car to talk to him out of politeness. In this case, only 35 seconds is enough.The second situation is to get in the car and talk. In this case, he needs to do a few more things, so it took a total of 55 seconds, which is also within the reasonable range of the plan. In short, the first step was successfully completed. From beginning to end, he wasn't nervous at all. He originally thought he would be nervous, but when he actually did it, he was not nervous. Although it was his first time, his psychological quality was surprisingly good.
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