Chapter 54 Chapter 9 The Golden Age 4

4 The discrepancy between macro-level intentions and micro-level applications is particularly striking in the case of international economic restructuring.The so-called "lessons" learned from the Great Depression (this term was often used by people in the 1940s) became the mastermind in the substantive arrangements of the post-war international economic system.The hegemony of the United States is of course a fait accompli. Sometimes, although the idea of ​​reform comes from the British side and was first initiated by the United Kingdom, the political pressure for everyone to take action often comes from Washington.When confronted with disagreements—such as Keynes and the US spokesman Harry White (Harry White), who once disagreed on the newly established International Monetary Fund (IMF)—it is often the US that prevails .In the original conception, the neo-liberal world economic order was part of the new international political order, and the realization of the new international order came through the planning and establishment of the United Nations at the end of the war.However, during the Cold War, when the original model of the United Nations began to collapse, countries officially established the "World Bank" (also known as the "International Renaissance Bank") in accordance with the "Bretton Woods Agreements" in 1944. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development—and the International Monetary Fund.These two international organizations, which still exist today, maintain exchange rate stability and are also responsible for dealing with the issue of international debt payment balance (balance of payment).In addition, countries have not established any institutions to deal with other aspects of international economic affairs (such as price control of basic livelihood goods, international policies to maintain full employment, etc.); implement.The "International Trade Organization" (International Trade Organization), which was originally suggested to be established, only appeared in the form of "General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)" in the end. It can only be reduced through regular consultations. The tariff barriers between the two countries are much smaller and less extensive than they were originally conceived.

In short, the princes who planned this brave new world, originally intended to carry out their grand vision through a series of economic organizations, failed in this respect.The world rebuilt from the flames of war didn't work the way they thought it would.In this world, an orderly international system has not been formed, and it revolves around the multilateral free trade and payment system.American efforts in this direction collapsed less than two years after victory in the Great War.However, although the political ideals pinned on the United Nations failed, the system of international trade and payment began to work, although it did not quite match the original expected conception.In fact, the Golden Age was indeed an era of free trade, free capital movement, and currency stability; in this regard, the ideals of wartime planners were finally realized.And the success in this respect is undoubtedly mainly due to the overwhelming dominance of the United States and the dollar in the international economy.However, a large part of the credit for the stability of the U.S. dollar depends on the gift of maintaining a certain ratio with gold—until the late 1960s and early 1970s, the fixed relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold was declared shattered.We must remember one thing: in the 1950s, the United States alone accounted for about 60% of the total capital and total output of advanced countries in the world.Even in the climax of the golden age (1970), when everyone was thriving together, the United States still held 50% of the total capital of advanced countries, and its output was close to half of the total output of all countries (Armstrong, Glyn, Harrison, 1991, p. 15).

Fear of communism was another major reason.The biggest obstacle to a free-trade capital economy—contrary to what Americans think—is not foreign protectionism, but the traditional tariff system of the United States itself and the Americans’ single-minded mentality to expand their exports. Sincerely.The wartime planning experts of the Washington administration believed that the expansion of US exports was "a necessary means to achieve full and effective employment in the United States" (Kolko, 1969, p. 13).So as soon as the war ended, the people who formulated the US policy began to expand ambitiously.As a result, the beginning of the Cold War forced them to reconsider and take a longer-term view.The Cold War changed their minds, making them realize that the only way to meet the urgent political needs of the moment is to help their future competitors to accelerate their development as soon as possible.Some argue that viewed from this perspective, we can even see the Cold War as the main driving force behind the great global prosperity (Walker, 1991).Although this idea may be exaggerated.However, the huge amount of generous aid from the Marshall Plan obviously contributed indelibly to the modernization of the aided countries—such as Austria and France—and the aid from the United States accelerated the transformation and growth of West Germany and Japan.Of course, even without the help of the United States, Germany and Japan will become economic powers sooner or later. The key point is to look at one fact alone: ​​as defeated countries, they cannot decide their own foreign policy, so naturally they do not need to fall into the bottomless pit of military expenditure. Instead of pouring money, it will take advantage of it.But on the other hand, the role played by US aid in the revival of Germany and Japan must not be ignored. We only need to ask, if Germany's revival must rely on the nose of Europe, what will happen to the German economy?You must know that European countries are afraid of the resurgence of German power.Similarly, if the United States had not established Japan as its industrial base in the Far East during the Korean War and the Vietnam War, would the speed of Japanese economic recovery be comparable to what actually happened?Japan's GDP doubled between 1949 and 1953 (during the Korean War), all thanks to US funds; 13 years later, between 1966 and 1970 (during the Vietnam War), it is no coincidence that Japan once again entered the peak of growth - this paragraph Time Japan's annual growth rate of no less than 14.6%.Therefore, we must not underestimate the contribution of the Cold War to the global economy, although in the long run, countries squandered precious resources in the arms race, which naturally had a devastating negative impact on the economy.The most extreme example is the Soviet Union, which ultimately dealt a fatal blow to the country's economy.In the same way, even the United States has shrunk its economic power because of the need to strengthen its military power.

All in all, the postwar world economy is one that revolves around the United States.The free movement of factors of production between nations has never been less impeded than it is now since the middle Victorian period.With one exception, the recovery of international migration seems unusually slow, still stuck in interwar austerity – and that is only an illusion.Because the impetus for the great prosperity of the golden age came not only from the labor force who had been unemployed and now returned to the job market, but also from the great torrent of internal migration-this torrent moved from the countryside to the cities, from agriculture to industry (especially from the highlands) barren areas), from poor to rich areas.As a result, residents in southern Italy flooded into factories in Lombardy and Piedmont; and in Tuscany (Tuscan) in central and western Italy, as many as 400,000 tenant farmers abandoned their farms in 20 years. field.The industrialization process in Eastern Europe is basically such a process based on a large number of immigrants.What's more, the internal migration in some places can actually be included in the international migration, because when these foreign populations first arrived here, they were not motivated by seeking employment and survival, but were displaced by a large number of refugees after 1945. The result of being forced to leave home and go to a different place.

However, despite the above facts of mass population movement, in this era of rapid economic growth and acute shortage of labor, in this economic system in the Western world that is committed to the free flow of resources and products, the policies of various governments are trying to draw This phenomenon is all the more worthy of our attention because of the resistance to immigration and the full opposition to the free movement of the population.Usually, when these governments find themselves allowing immigration to flow invisibly (such as residents of the Caribbean and other Commonwealth areas, who have the right to settle in the United Kingdom because of their status as legal British subjects), they raise their iron fists and cut off the outside world. The immigration of the population.Moreover, in most cases, this type of immigrants—mostly from less developed countries in the Mediterranean region—can only obtain conditional temporary residence, so that they can be easily repatriated in case of emergency.However, with the increasing number of member states of the "European Economic Community", many emigrating countries have also begun to join this cooperative organization (such as Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece), making repatriation work increasingly difficult.All in all, by the early 1970s, about 7.5 million people had migrated to developed European countries (Potts, 1990, pp. 146-147).But even in the golden years, immigration remained an extremely sensitive political issue; in the difficult two decades after 1973, immigration sparked a wave of open xenophobia among European populace.

Nevertheless, the world economy in the golden age has always remained at the level of "international" rather than "transnational" activities.The mutual trade among countries in the world is more active than ever before.Even the United States, a country that was largely self-sufficient before World War II, is now beginning to stretch out its tentacles. From 1950 to 1970, the total export volume of the United States to all parts of the world not only quadrupled; and since the 1950s, it has also become a major importer of consumer products. By the end of the 1960s, the United States even began to import cars from abroad ( Block 1997 p. 145).However, although industrial countries trade purchases with each other, the vast majority of their economic activity remains within their own borders.Even at the height of the Golden Age, U.S. exports were worth less than 8 percent of gross domestic product.What is even more surprising is that even Japan, which is mainly export-oriented, has a ratio of its total value of exports only slightly higher than that of the United States (Marglin, Schor, p. 43, Table 2.2).

However, transnational economic activities also began to emerge at this time, especially since the 1960s.In transnational economic activities, the national boundaries of the political category and the boundaries between countries can no longer regulate the scope of economic activities. At most, they are only one of the intricate factors in transnational activities.In the most extreme cases, a so-called "world economy" began to take shape, in which not only did not have any specific national regions and border areas, but on the contrary, it further defined the limits of economic activities of all countries, and even the strongest Sheng's country cannot escape its grasp. Sometime in the mid-1970s, an economy that transcended national borders like this gradually began to become a powerful force over the world. During the 20 years of the crisis (Crisis Decades) that began after 1973, this force not only continued to develop, but also developed at an even faster rate—in fact, when it comes to the many problems of these 20 years, the rise of the transnational economy can be blamed.Of course, the transnational economy went hand in hand with the growth of the "internationalization phenomenon".From 1956 to 1990, the export ratio of global products tripled (World Development, 1992, p235).

In this transnational trend, three aspects are particularly obvious, namely, transnational corporations (also known as "multinational corporations"), new combinations of international division of labor, and the rise of so-called offshore finance.The last of these, offshore financing, was not only one of the earliest forms of the rise of the transnational phenomenon, but also one of the most vivid examples of how capitalist economic activity escapes state control—or any control. The so-called "overseas" term began to enter the public vocabulary around the 1960s. It is used to describe companies exploiting legal loopholes, a means of tax evasion by registering their headquarters in small overseas countries.The small overseas countries or territories where these large companies are located are often extremely generous, giving companies full freedom and allowing them not to accept the restrictions and taxes that they must face in their own countries.Because by the middle of this century, as long as it is a normal country or territory, no matter how much its founding purpose is to pursue the greatest freedom of personal profit, at this time, for the sake of the overall interests of the whole people, it has set a certain degree of restrictions on the operation of legal enterprises. Control and Limitation.In such circumstances, small, benevolent countries—such as Curacao, the Virgin Islands, and Liechtenstein—play legal loopholes in their corporate and labor laws. This complex but ingenious method is just to the taste of large companies, and can create amazing miracles on the latter's property income statement.Because "the highest spirit of the overseas nature is to transform numerous legal loopholes into a vigorous and unrestricted enterprise structure" (Raw, Page, Hodgson, 1972, p. 83).Of course, the use of such overseas methods can play the greatest role in financial transactions.As for Panama and Liberia, they have made a fortune in ship registration for a long time, because merchant ship owners from other countries feel that their country’s regulations on labor and safety control are too cumbersome, so they come here one after another. Politicians in Panama and Liberia therefore Get great income.

In the mid-1960s, someone made a little brainstorm, and immediately transformed London, the old international financial center, into a major center for overseas activities around the world.This technique was the invention of the "Eurocurrency" (Eurodollars), also known as "Eurodollars".These Eurodollars stay abroad and are deposited in banks outside the United States. The main purpose is to avoid many restrictions of the US banking law.The free-flowing so-called "Eurodollar" has become a negotiable financial instrument.Coupled with the increasing investment of the United States overseas and the huge military expenditure of the US government, the amount began to accumulate in large quantities, and an unregulated global market began to form, mainly in short-term borrowing. The net value of the "Eurodollar" market increased from about $14 billion in 1964 to about $160 billion in 1973, and nearly $500 billion five years later.When members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries suddenly find that they have too much money to invest, the Eurodollar market becomes a game field for oil-producing countries to bet on profits. Chapter VI, Section II).So the United States was the first to find itself a victim in this international financial game, seeing huge independent funds getting bigger and bigger, being exchanged from one currency to another around the earth week after week. A currency, chasing quick profit returns all the way.In the end, governments all over the world are sacrificed in this game, because they cannot control not only the exchange rate, but also the global supply of money.By the early 1990s, the central banks of various countries jointly dispatched, but it was unable to play any role.

Companies headquartered in one country but operating in multiple countries naturally have an increasing need to expand their business.This kind of "multinational companies" is actually nothing new. There are many in the United States, from 7,500 in 1950 to 25,000 in 1966, and most of their semicolons are located in Western Europe and the United States. Western Hemisphere (Spero, 1977 p. 92).However, other countries have gradually begun to follow up. For example, Hoechst Chemical Company of Germany has direct or partnership relations with 117 factories in 45 countries around the world, of which, except for 6 factories, the rest are all Established after 1950 (Frobel, Heinrichs, Kreye, 1986, Tabell IIIA p. 281ff).The novelty of multinational enterprises lies in the huge scale of their operations. In the early 1980s, the total export value of US multinational corporations accounted for more than three-quarters of the total US exports, and their total imports accounted for almost half of the total US imports.The figures for the UK are even more staggering (including domestic and foreign transnational enterprises), accounting for more than 80% of the UK's total exports (UN Transnational 1988, p.90).

From a certain point of view, these import and export figures are actually meaningless, because the main function of the so-called multinational corporations is to "integrate and internalize many markets across national borders", that is, to operate independently of political countries and national boundaries. .General statistics on imports and exports (most of which are still collected separately by each country) are in fact equal to the trade figures within multinational corporations, such as General Motors of the United States, which has operations in 40 countries around the world.Since multinational corporations can operate transnationally, it naturally strengthens the trend of capital concentration.This phenomenon has been familiar to the world since Marx. In 1960, it was estimated that the total turnover of the 200 largest companies in the non-socialist countries in the world was equal to 17% of the gross national product of the non-socialist group; in 1984 it rose to 26%.Most of this type of multinational companies set up their headquarters in "developed countries"; in fact, among the so-called "200 largest" companies, 85% set their headquarters in the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom and Germany, and the rest 15% are located in 11 other countries.However, these super-giant companies are so closely connected with their own governments that by the end of the golden age, except for Japanese companies and some arms-based companies, they can be regarded as the interests of their own governments and countries.A car tycoon in Detroit involved in American politics once had a famous saying about this: "Anything that is good for General Motors must be good for America." But as time passed, this closely related relationship began to blur.Because today’s domestic market and domestic business, take Mobil Oil as an example, but it is only one of the company’s hundreds of markets around the world; take Daimler Benz as an example, It is only sold in one of more than 170 countries around the world.How can the position of the home country market play a decisive role in the global business of multinational companies?As far as an international oil company is concerned, in the strategic logic of its business operations, no matter whether it is the home country, Saudi Arabia, or Venezuela, the balance of its operations must be treated equally.That is, on the one hand, it calculates the benefits and losses, on the other hand, it compares the relative power of the company itself and various governments, and formulates the policy of the company's decision-making based on this. The trading activities and operations of enterprises are gradually breaking away from traditional national boundaries. This trend is not limited to a few giant companies.As industrial production gradually moved out from Europe and the United States, which were the pioneers of industrialization and capitalization—the speed of the migration was very slow at first, and then became faster and faster—transnational production and management methods became more and more prominent.It is true that in the golden age, European and American countries have always maintained their status as powerhouses of economic power. In the mid-1950s, three-fifths of the total exports of industrial countries' manufactured goods were sold within the circle of industrial countries; by the 1970s, the proportion had risen to three-quarters.But from this moment on, the situation began to change, and the proportion of manufactured goods exported by developed countries to the rest of the world began to increase - and more significantly - the third world also began to export manufactured goods to developed industrial countries , and the amount ratio is not low.As the traditional major export items of lagging regions began to weaken (with the notable exception of energy, thanks to a price revolution in the oil-exporting countries), they began to turn to the road of industrialization, although only patchwork, speed But extremely fast. From 1970 to 1983, the Third World, which used to account for only 5% of the total global industrial exports, made rapid progress and more than doubled (Forbel et al, 1986, p. 200). From then on, the new international division of labor began, and the old order became difficult to maintain.Germany's Volkswagen (Volkswagen) set up car factories in Argentina, Brazil (three factories), Canada, Ecuador, Egypt, Mexico, Nigeria, Peru, South Africa, and various places in Yugoslavia - all overseas factories in the 1960s Begins to build after the mid-term.The industries of the third world not only meet the growing demand locally, but also sell globally.Some of their products were produced entirely locally (such as textiles, whose production centers had shifted from the old industrial countries to the "developing countries" by 1970), or they were part of multinational production operations. The new phenomenon of the international division of labor may be said to be an invention unique to the golden age, but this trend did not fully develop until later; the revolution in transportation and communication is an indispensable factor in it.Because only advanced transportation can distribute the manufacturing of the same product in multiple places in line with economic benefits—for example, Houston, Singapore, and Thailand—use air freight to transfer semi-finished products to three places for completion, and Use modern information technology to control the progress of the entire process. Since the mid-1960s, major electronics manufacturers have invested in this trend of international production lines.The path of movement on the production line is no longer limited to the factory building in a single location, but goes around the earth - some of the production lines terminate in the special "Free Production Zone" (Free Production Zone), or some overseas factories within.This type of special operation area is now springing up in various places, especially in poor countries with a large number of cheap young women labor force, and this is another new method for multinational companies to escape the control of a single country.Manaus (Manaus), deep in the South American Amazon jungle (Amazon), is one of the pioneers of this type of "free production zone". It produces textiles, toys, paper products, electronic products, A wide variety of consumer products such as electronic watches. The political dimension of the world economy thus undergoes a paradoxical change in its structure.As global operations become more and more integrated, the national economic systems of big countries are gradually giving way to offshore centers, while the majority of offshore centers are located in small countries or even super small countries.The disintegration of the old colonial empires naturally contributed to the increase in the number of such small countries.According to statistics from the World Bank, by the end of 1991, there were as many as 71 economies in the world with a population of less than 2.5 million (18 of which had a population of less than 100,000).This figure shows that two-fifths of the political entities with the status of independent economies in the world belong to this type of ultra-small units (World Development, 1992).Before the outbreak of World War II, their economic power was originally regarded as the object of ridicule by the world, and they were not regarded as real countries at all.In fact, no matter in the past or now, these small countries do not have any strength enough to defend their nominally independent status in the face of the grim reality of the international jungle.However, in the golden age, an undeniable fact began to emerge, that is, although they were not self-defense militarily, they were not inferior economically, and by directly participating in the production ranks of the global economy, they could also thrive like great powers , sometimes even outperforming the big powers.As a result, small urban states such as Hong Kong and Singapore emerged. Before that, the first time in human history to see the prosperity of such political bodies had to go back to the Middle Ages.There is also a small corner of the desert in the Persian Gulf, which has transformed into a major player in the international investment market (Kuwait).What's more, overseas hiding places have appeared one after another, protecting companies from escaping the constraints of national laws. In this way, the nationalist movements that flourished everywhere in the late 20th century became increasingly untenable.For an independent Corsica or the Canary Islands cannot survive alone; the only independence it can achieve is political separation from the original country.Economically, such a small country tends to rely more heavily on transnational economic entities whose influence on economic affairs has only increased over the years.For these huge multinational corporations, the world that is most desirable and convenient for them to operate in is naturally a world full of small countries or no countries at all.