Chapter 9 Chapter Two World Revolution 1

1 In the decades from 1914 to 1991, for a long period of time, the Soviet communism system claimed to be superior to capitalism. Not only was it another path that human society could choose, it was also destined to replace the former in history.During this period, although some people denied the superiority of communism, they did not doubt its possibility of final victory.With the exception of the period from 1933 to 1945 (see Chapter 5), since the October Revolution in Russia, for more than 70 years, international politics has focused entirely on the long-term confrontation between two forces, that is, the struggle between the old order and the social revolution. .The embodiment of the social revolution was implemented in the Soviet Union and the Communist International, and they were closely related to each other's prosperity.

Since 1945, the two opposing forces of communism and capitalism have been dominated by two superpowers, and the two sides have threatened each other with destructive weapons.But as the century passed, the world political model of bipolar system competition became increasingly unrealistic.By the 1980s, it was more like a distant crusade and had nothing to do with the international political situation.However, the tendency of the two systems to confront each other is not out of thin air, and has its own causes.Compared with the radical Jacobins (Jacobins) at the height of the French Revolution, the Russian October Revolution was arguably more thorough and left no room for compromise.People in the October Revolution believed that the significance of this revolution was not limited to one country or one place, but a revolution for all mankind in the world; it not only brought freedom and socialism to Russia, but also set off a proletarian revolution all over the world.In the eyes of Lenin and his comrades, the victory of the Bolsheviks in Russia was only the first stage, and the ultimate goal was to win a large victory for the Bolsheviks on the world battlefield.There is nothing else to say about this overall victory.

Russia under the tsarist rule was ripe for revolution.If there is no revolution, there is simply no way out. After the 1870s, everyone who knew the world situation agreed that a revolution like this would surely bring the downfall of Tsarist Russia (see Chapter 12 of The Age of Empires).After 1905-1906, the Tsarist Russian regime was completely helpless against the revolutionary trend, and no one had doubts about the general trend.Now looking back to the present, some modern historians argue that if it hadn’t been for the outbreak of the First World War and the Bolshevik Revolutionary Dictatorship, Tsarist Russia would have transformed into a prosperous and free capitalist industrial society—and the Russian society at that time was actually also is moving in this direction.But this statement is only hindsight. If we go back to the season before 1914, I am afraid that we will have to use a microscope to find the person who made this prophecy. After the 1905 revolution was put down, the tsarist regime never recovered, but the incompetence of the government remained the same, and the wave of social discontent rose even higher.On the eve of the outbreak of the First World War, fortunately, the army, police and civil servants remained loyal to the government; otherwise, the revolutionary chaos would be out of control.With the war together, the enthusiasm and patriotism of the people were indeed diverted, temporarily diluting the tense political atmosphere in the country.In fact, this kind of large-scale transfer method of covering up internal troubles with external troubles is like this in every warring country, but it is difficult to last in Russia.By 1915, the tsarist regime, which had become ill, seemed to have reached the point of no cure.This time, the trend of the times, the March 1917 revolution resurged, and as expected, it overthrew the monarchy in Russia in one fell swoop.Except for the die-hard conservative reactionaries, Western political circles and public opinion unanimously applauded.

In the imagination of the Romantics, starting from the experience of the collective operation of the Russian rural communes, a sunny road leads directly to the bright future of socialism.Yet this is romantic wishful thinking, and the general belief is just the opposite, that the Russian Revolution cannot and will not be a socialist revolution.Because a peasant country like Russia has always been synonymous with poverty, ignorance, and backwardness in the eyes of the world, and it does not have the conditions to transform into a socialist country at all.As for the gravediggers of capitalism identified by Karl Marx—the industrial proletariat, although they are mainly distributed throughout Russia, they are still a very small minority.In fact, even the Russian Marxists do not deny this view.The collapse of the tsarist regime and the landownership system could at most lead to a "bourgeois revolution".The class struggle between the propertied class and the proletariat will continue under the new political situation (but according to Marx's theory, there is naturally only one final outcome).Of course, Russia is not an isolated country; its territory is so vast that it borders Japan in the east and Germany in the west;Once a revolution occurs in such a country, it will inevitably have a shocking impact on the international situation.In his later years, Marx himself hoped that the Russian Revolution would be like a detonator, which would then detonate a series of revolutions in Western countries with more developed industries and conditions for proletarian socialist revolution.The international political situation at the end of the First World War seems to be developing in this direction.

But there's one thing that's complicated.If it is said that Russia at that time did not yet have the conditions for a proletarian socialist revolution in the minds of Marxists; then the next best thing is that the time for the so-called liberal "bourgeois revolution" has not yet come in Russia.Even those whose ideals are nothing more than a bourgeois revolution have to find a way to find a way beyond the small Russian liberal middle class.Because the Russian middle class is not only small in number, but also lacks moral awareness and popular support; moreover, Russia has no tradition of representative system to be compatible with them. In the Constituent Assembly elected by free elections in 1917-1918 (which was subsequently disbanded), the Kadet, a democratic faction advocating bourgeois liberalism, accounted for less than 2.5% of the seats.There are only two easy ways for Russia to go: one is that the vast majority of workers and peasants who don’t know what the bourgeoisie is at all, and don’t care what it is, rise up and join the revolutionary line parties (this kind of people naturally don’t want bourgeois-style Russia) to win elections and reverse the nature of Russian capitalism.Another path, which is also more likely, is that the social forces that caused the revolution surged again, surpassing the bourgeois liberals, and moving to another more radical stage [to borrow Marx’s words, it is the so-called "permanent revolution theory" . In 1905, the term was revived by the young Leon Trotsky].In fact, as early as 1905, Lenin changed his mind and believed that liberalism, the horse, would never be able to stand out in the Russian Revolution.Lenin's assessment can be described as quite realistic.However, he was also very clear at the time that Russia did not actually have the conditions for a socialist revolution.And this is the common understanding of all Russian and foreign communists. For these Marxist revolutionaries, their revolution must spread outwards to be successful.

With the current situation at that time, this kind of idea is also very likely to be realized.With the end of the war, the old regimes in various places fell one after another, and the whole of Europe fell into the crisis of revolutionary outbreak, and the defeated countries were like eggs. In 1918, the rulers of the four defeated countries (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Turkey, Bulgaria) lost their thrones.Including the Russian Tsar who had resigned the previous year and was defeated by Germany, there were five in total.Even Italy, because of the turmoil in the domestic society, the revolution is almost imminent, and other victorious countries were also greatly shocked.

As we have seen before, total war put a strain on Europe that began to distort its societies.Originally, when the war just broke out, the people had aroused a patriotic upsurge, but as the war expanded, the climax gradually receded.By 1916, the weariness of war had turned into a sullen and silent hostility, and then into an endless sense of senseless killing.However, neither of the two warring parties is willing to stop first.When the war began in 1914, there was nothing but a sense of powerlessness among those who opposed it.However, the war was exhausted and the teachers were exhausted. By 1916, they began to feel that their views were sufficient to represent the opinions of the majority.From the following events, we can get a glimpse of the process of anti-war sentiment at that time. On October 28, 1916, the leader and son of the founder of the Austrian Socialist Party, Friedrich Adler, deliberately murdered the Austrian Prime Minister Count Sturgkh in a coffee shop in Vienna. It was the era before dignitaries did not have the so-called security personnel to protect them-this assassination incident is nothing more than an open anti-war method.

Even before 1914, the socialist movement had insisted on opposing the war.At the moment, the general anti-war sentiment will naturally help to improve the image and weight of socialists.The latter is increasingly repeating the same old tune, such as Britain, Russia, and Serbia's Independent Labor Party, which has never given up its anti-war stance.As for the socialist parties in other countries, even if the party's position supports war, the opposition within the party is often the biggest voice of opposition.At the same time, in the major belligerent countries, organized labor movements began to simmer in the large munitions factories, which eventually became the centers of industrial and anti-war forces.The union representatives in these factories were skilled workers, in a favorable bargaining position, and became synonymous with radicalism.And technicians in the high-tech navy have joined the same ranks.The main German and Russian naval bases, Kiel and Kronstadt, eventually became centers of the revolutionary movement respectively.Later, the French naval base in the Black Sea mutinied, which prevented the French army from intervening in the Russian Civil War from 1918 to 1920 and participating in military operations to attack and block the Bolsheviks.Since then, the anti-war forces have a center and motivation.No wonder the post and telecommunications inspectors of the Austro-Hungarian Empire found that the tone of the letters in the army gradually changed over time: from the original "May God give us peace" to "We have had enough", and some even Wrote: "I heard that the Socialist Party is going to negotiate a peace."

From the records left by the censors of the Habsburg regime, we can prove one more thing; since the outbreak of the war, the first political event that conformed to the popular will was the Great Russian Revolution.After the Bolshevik Party led by Lenin in the October Revolution succeeded in seizing power, calls for peace and demands for social revolution have become more integrated into a trend: among the checked letters between November 1917 and March 1918, one-third One said that the hope of peace lies in Russia; another third believed that the hope of peace lay in the revolution; and one fifth believed that the hope of peace lay in Russia and revolution, both of which are indispensable.In fact, the international repercussions of the Russian Revolution have always been obvious: as early as 1905-1906, the first revolution had already shaken the remaining great empires at that time, from the Austro-Hungarian Empire, through Turkey and Persia, all the way. When they arrived in China, they were shocked (see Chapter 12 of "The Age of Empires").By 1917, all of Europe had become a pile of gunpowder waiting to be detonated at any moment.