Chapter 2 bird's eye view of the century

12 Literary and Academic Figures on the 20th Century: Philosopher Lsaiah Berlin: "I have lived—I must say this—through the twentieth century without personal suffering. Yet it is one of the most terrible in Western history in my memory century." Spanish anthropologist Julio Caro Baroja: "In the personal experience of a person--to live, to be young, to grow old, to die in peace, to go through a life without any great adventure--and the reality of the 20th century Deeds... There are extremely strong and obvious contradictions and contrasts among the various horrors experienced by human beings."

Italian writer Primo Levi: "Those of us who survived the concentration camps are not really witnesses. This feeling, although uncomfortable, is in my reading of many survivors, including I slowly realized it after writing various records myself. Years later, I reread my notes and found that the number of survivors in our group was not only extremely rare, but also totally abnormal. Perhaps It's luck, maybe it's skill, and by hiding and escaping, we didn't actually fall into the bottom of hell. Those who really fell into the bottom, those who saw the snake, scorpion and demon, either didn't survive, or they were speechless from then on."

French agronomist and ecologist Rene Dumont: "I look at the 20th century as an era of massacres and wars." Nobel laureate and Italian scientist RitaLevi Montalcini: "Despite everything that has happened, there have been several revolutions in this century that are going in a good direction...such as the rise of the fourth class, and the rise of women It came to the fore after being suppressed for hundreds of years." Nobel Prize winner and British writer William Golding: "I just can't stop thinking, this is really the bloodiest and most turbulent century in human history."

Ernest Gombrich, a British art historian: "The biggest feature of the 20th century is the terrible speed of the world's population growth. This is a catastrophe, a catastrophe. We don't know what to do about it." British musician Yehudi Menuhin: "If I had to sum up the 20th century in one sentence, I would say that it raised for mankind the greatest hope imaginable, but at the same time destroyed all hope." fantasies and ideals." Nobel laureate and Spanish scientist Severo Ochoa: "The most fundamental thing is the progress of science. The achievements are really extraordinary...the most distinctive feature of our century."

British anthropologist Raymond Firth: "As far as technology is concerned, I think electronics is the most significant development in the 20th century. As for ideas, it may be based on a point of view that was originally quite rational and scientific. Transformed into an irrational and less scientific state of mind.” Italian historian Leo Valiani: "Our century has proved that the victory of so-called justice, justice, equality and other ideals is just a short-lived blip. But at the same time, as long as we have a way to keep 'freedom' , or start all over again...don't lose heart, even in the most desperate of situations."

Italian historian Franco Venturi: "Historians cannot answer this question. For me, the 20th century is nothing but our constant re-understanding." (Agosti and Borgese, 1992, PP.42, 210, 154, 76, 4, 8, 204, 2, 62, 80, 140, 160) 1 On June 28, 1992, French President Francois Mitterrand made an unannounced visit to war-torn Sarajevo.The city at that day was already the focus of a war in the Balkan Peninsula. By the end of the year, the cost of this war would be as high as 150,000 lives.The purpose of Mitterrand's trip is to remind international public opinion of the seriousness of the crisis in Bosnia.Indeed, it is a striking and admirable scene to see this elderly and frail guest come here amidst the hail of bullets.But there is a completely overlooked reason for Mitchell's visit, even though it is the central point of the trip: the date of his visit.Why did the French president choose to go to Sarajevo on this day?Because June 28 was the day when Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the crown prince of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, was assassinated in Saxony in 1914.Within weeks, the assassination sparked World War I.But for any European of Mitterrand's age, as long as he has read a few years of books, all the entanglements and connections between this time, this place, and the historical catastrophe caused by political mistakes and miscalculations, will immediately surface. The heart flashed in front of my eyes again.Today's Bosnia is once again at a critical juncture. What action can be more dramatic than choosing such a symbolic day to visit, and make people face up to the meaning of this crisis?However, except for a few professional historians and very old people, they generally fail to understand the strong allusion in it.The memory of history is dead.

Everything in the past, or the social mechanism that connects a person's contemporary experience with that of previous generations, is now completely destroyed.This disconnect from the past is arguably one of the greatest and most bizarre features of the late 20th century.Many young men and women at the end of the century, their growth background seems to be a kind of eternal present, lacking any organic connection with the common past of everyone in this era.As the two millennium draws to a close, therefore, the role of historians is even more important than ever; for their task is to remember historical experiences that have been forgotten by others.For the same reason, their role should also be expanded than before, no longer simply as a person who keeps records and collects data, although these are also their necessary functions.Going back to 1989, if an international symposium could be held to review the peaceful settlements implemented after the two world wars, I believe that governments, especially senior diplomats, would benefit a lot from it.Most of them have obviously forgotten what happened back then.

The subject of this book is the "short twentieth century" from 1914 to 1991; however, the purpose of this book is not to recall the past events that took place during this period.Of course, anyone who has been asked a question like the following by one of his students knows that even some basic common sense about the past cannot be taken for granted today.One of my clever American disciples asked, since there is a so-called "World War II", does it mean that there was a "World War I" before?But my purpose in writing this book is to understand and explain why things happen the way they do, and how they are meaningfully related to each other.And for people of my age who have lived through the "short twentieth century" all their lives, this book inevitably has an autobiographical flavor.We are narrating, recounting (and correcting) events in our own memory.Moreover, we, as actors and actresses—no matter how small our role is, no matter how we got it—go back to a drama performed in that particular time and space, on the historical stage of that great era.At the same time, we observe our own era; what is more, our view of this century is shaped by what we see as pivotal moments.Our whole life is a part of this century; and this century is also a part of our life.Readers of another era, such as those who entered college at the time of this writing, should not lose sight of this important point.For you, even the Vietnam War is old prehistoric.

But for my generation, and historians with the above background, the past can never be erased.Because we belong to a time when streets and public places are still named after public figures or events (such as Wilson Station in pre-war Prague, and Stalingrad Metro Station in Paris).At that time, the peace treaty was still signed, so it had to have a name for identification (such as "Versailles Peace Treaty"; the war monuments of that time still remind people of the past. Because at that time, the public Events are still an integral part of the fabric of our lives, not just a marker in our private lives. They shape our lives, both public and private. For the author himself For example, January 30, 1933, the day when Hitler became Chancellor of Germany, was not simply any date on the calendar. It was a winter afternoon in Berlin, a 15-year-old boy in Will He was on his way home with his sister to Halensee after school near Wilmersdorf (a district of West Berlin) when he saw this headline. Even now, I can imagine seeing this The news is like a dream.

But the people who own this past that has become inseparable in this life are not limited to this old historian who wrote the book.On the vast expanse of the earth, all people of a certain age, regardless of personal background or life experience, have tasted the same important experience.It marks us all, in a way, more in the same way. The world split into several pieces in the late 1980s was actually the same world created by the impact of the Russian Revolution in 1917.All of us have left traces because of this; it’s just that we are all accustomed to thinking in binary opposition, dividing the modern industrial economy into “capitalism” and “socialism”, two absolute choices that cannot coexist and are mutually exclusive, so that we can understand.One represents an economic system modeled on the Soviet Union, and the other takes the rest.Now it seems that the situation should be clearer. This kind of dichotomy is really an arbitrary, even almost unnatural thinking structure, which can only be understood under a certain historical time and space.But then again, even if the author is writing at this moment, even if he looks backwards, it is indeed difficult to find other more realistic ways of distinguishing, that is, the United States, Japan, Sweden, Brazil, and South Korea. , and make a pile of all the ancient brains.And count the state-style economic system in the sphere of influence of the Soviet Union, and the countries in East Asia and Southeast Asia as the other side-although the latter obviously did not collapse after the 1980s like the former.

What's more, the world that survived the shocking end of the October Revolution was modeled on the institutional premises of the victorious side of World War II.The loser, or those countries that were in league with the loser, not only disappeared, but were expelled from history and spiritual life.Only in the spiritual battle between "good and evil" does it still play the role of "enemy". (This fate may also be happening to those who lost the Cold War in the second half of the 20th century, but the degree may be different, and the duration will not be so long.) To spend one's life in such a century full of faith wars, to suffer so hard, It is one of the costs that must be endured.Narrow editing and intolerance are the biggest features.Even those who claim to be pluralistic and open-minded think that the world is not big enough to accommodate the permanent coexistence of various opposing and competing secular beliefs.Conflicts of faith or ideology - such conflicts as this century has witnessed - often present obstacles to the historian's search for the truth.The main task of the historian is not to judge who is right, but to try to understand those things that are least understood by us.But the roadblocks that stand in the way of understanding are not only our own stubborn ideas, but also the historical life experience that formed these ideas.The former obstacle is easier to overcome, because the French proverb that we are all familiar with: "to know everything is to forgive everything" (tout comprendre c'st tout Pardonner) is actually not true, there is no truth in it.We go to understand the Nazi period in German history and put it in the historical background, not to excuse the crime of genocide.All in all, anyone who has lived through this extraordinary century will naturally have some opinions about it.Understanding is the most difficult task. 2 The short period of the twentieth century, from the outbreak of the First World War to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, now looks back and should belong to a consistent historical period.Now that this period is over, how do we make sense of it?No one knows what the next phase of the future will look like, what the third millennium will look like; although we can be sure that its conditions will be shaped under the influence of the short twentieth century.However, it is an indisputable fact that just in the late 1980s and early 1990s, an era in world history ended and a new one began.This is indeed the most important message for the historians of this century; for although they can foresee the future from the past, and speculate on the unknown future from what they know, they are not spies in the racetrack, You can inquire about the world affairs of the next century in advance.The battles that historians dare to open their mouths to report and analyze are those matches where the outcome has already been determined.In any case, the records of various forecasters over the past thirty or forty years, regardless of their professional status as prophecies, have been so poor that only governments and economic research institutions have had some confidence in them— —Perhaps, this confidence is also fake at all.After World War II, it was more likely to go from bad to worse. In this book, the short twentieth century is like a triptych, or rather, like a historical sandwich.From 1914 to the end of World War II was the Age of Catastrophe.Immediately afterwards, there was a period of 25 to 30 years of extraordinary economic growth and major social changes. The changes brought about by the light in these few decades are probably far greater than any historical period of comparable length.Looking back now, it can indeed be seen as a kind of Golden Age (Golden Age); in fact, when this period ended in the early 1970s, it was regarded as such immediately.And the last part of this century is a time of disintegration, uncertainty, and crisis-in fact, for a large part of the world, such as Africa, the former Soviet Union, and the former socialist regions of Europe, it is simply another disaster period.As the 1980s passed and the 1990s kicked off, while reflecting on the past and the uncertain future, the pervasive atmosphere was a pessimistic mood at the end of the century.Viewed from the vantage point of the 1990s, the short twentieth century seems to be passing from one era to another, briefly passing through a golden age on the way, and finally entering a problematic and unknown future-but the future is not necessarily It's the end of the world.Historians may like to remind talkers of the "end of history" at every turn, but the future will still continue.There is only one general rule that can be absolutely true about history, and that is that history will continue as long as there are human beings. The arguments in this book are organized around this principle.It started with World War I, the beginning of the collapse of (Western) civilization in the 19th century.This civilization is capitalist in economy, liberal in legal and constitutional structure, and its typical ruling class is the bourgeois middle class.Science, knowledge, education, material progress, and moral improvement all shine in it.This civilization also firmly believes that Europe is the center of the world and the birthplace of science, art, politics, industry, and all revolutions.Its economic power penetrates deep and wide, and its military force conquers all places; most of the world succumbs to its feet.Its population continues to increase, reaching one-third of all human beings (including numerous overseas immigrants from Europe and their descendants).Its main country has become the stage of the world political system. But the decades from the outbreak of the First World War to the end of the Second World War were catastrophic periods for this society. For 40 years, stumbled, it fell from one disaster to another.Sometimes, even the best conservatives dare not bet on the survival of this society.The two world wars have ruined the world.Then came two waves of worldwide turmoil and fatality, bringing to the political stage another system that was destined by history to replace capitalist society.As soon as it appeared, its forces covered more than one-sixth of the world's land area, and after the Second World War, it swept over one-third of the world's population.And as early as the Age of Empire The great colonial empire built up in the past and within it is now in disarray and reduced to dust.The whole history of modern imperialism, which stood still and proud at the death of Queen Victoria of Great Britain, lasted no more than a generation—as long, say, as the life of Churchill. (1874-1965). What's more, the world economic crisis is so deep that even the most powerful capital economy can't bear it.The global single-world economic system, which had been arguably the greatest achievement of nineteenth-century liberal capitalism, also seemed to be on its way to ruin.Even the United States, which is far away from the flames of war and revolution, seems to be on the verge of bankruptcy at any time.The economy faltered, and the establishment of liberal democracies was wiped off the face of the earth in 1917-1942, leaving only the fringes of Europe, North America, and Australia.Fascism and its satellite totalitarian forces are rapidly advancing everywhere. At this moment, for the sake of self-defense, only liberal capitalism and communism join forces for a while and cooperate to fight against each other, which can save the life of democracy.This is indeed a strange combination.But in fact, the reason why this war against Hitler was finally won was mainly due to the strength of the Soviet Red Army, and only the Red Army could succeed.This period of "capitalism" and "Communist" cooperation in resisting fascism—basically belonging to the 1930s and 1940s—is, in many respects, a critical period and the most important decisive moment in the history of the 20th century.Similarly, in many respects, it is also the most historic and treacherous moment in the relationship between "capital" and "community" who have been rivals for most of the time.Only in this short period of anti-fascism did the two sides temporarily put aside their prejudices and deal with the common enemy.The defeat of Hitler by the Soviet Union was the greatest achievement of the regime established by the October Revolution; one only needs to compare the economic performance of Tsarist Russia in the last World War with that of the Soviet Union in World War II (Gatrell/Harison, 1993 ).Without the price paid by the Soviet Union, today in the Western world outside of the United States, I am afraid that there will only be various dictatorships singing fascist tunes, instead of today's liberal congressional politics with a hundred flowers blooming.One of the most paradoxical and ironic truths of this strange century is that the October Revolution, whose purpose was to overthrow capitalism, produced the longest lasting effect, but instead saved the life of its sworn enemy.This has been the case in wartime, as well as in peacetime.Because after World War II, and precisely because of the stimulation of its existence, capitalism just came to its senses and started to carry out reforms out of uneasiness. At the same time, because of the popularity of the Soviet Union's "plan" line, some reform inspirations were obtained from it. . The Great Depression, fascism, and war, free capitalism has finally escaped from these three disasters.But the future is difficult, and what follows is the advancement of revolutionary trends all over the world.With the rise of the Soviet Union as a superpower after the war, revolutionaries from all sides are now united under its banner. But in retrospect, global socialism was able to challenge capitalism. In fact, its greatest source of strength can only be pinned on the weakness of the opponent itself.Without the disintegration of bourgeois society in the 19th century, there would be no October Revolution, let alone the establishment of the Soviet Union.And the economic system that was practiced in the name of socialism on the vast territory of the former Tsarist Empire across Europe and Asia could not even consider itself qualified to replace capitalism; Think of it as a globally viable path.However, the Great Depression that occurred in the 1930s gave it this opportunity, making it seem possible to replace it.Just as the fascist challenge made the Soviet Union integral to defeating Hitler, it transformed it into one of the two superpowers.The ensuing confrontation between the two powers dominated the short second half of the twentieth century, and the world was all trembling under the theme of the Cold War—but at the same time, the world situation stabilized because of it; without the above Due to various changes, it is impossible for the Soviet Union to be the leader of socialism for 15 years in the middle of this century.The population under this camp accounts for one-third of all mankind; and their economies once seemed to have a tendency to outgrow the capitalist economy. As for how capitalism came back from the dead after the Second World War, it was unexpectedly able to flourish like a tiger and a tiger, and jumped into the golden age of 1947-1973 in one go. The prosperity of this period was not only Unprecedented, and possibly rare exceptions—this question is perhaps the greatest problem faced by historians of the 20th century.So far, opinions are still divided: I am here, and I dare not claim to have any convincing answers.Maybe we have to wait for a while until the historical "long cycle" of the second half of the 20th century can be fully reviewed before there will be a relatively unsatisfactory research result.Because standing at this moment, although we can already look back at the whole picture of the golden age, the ensuing crisis of twenty years (Crisis Decades) has not yet come to an end.But one of these developments, the resulting astounding economic, social and cultural changes, the largest, fastest and most fundamental in human history, can definitely begin to be assessed now.In the second part of this book, there will be a multi-faceted discussion on this level.For the historians who study the history of the 20th century in the third millennium in the future, when it comes to the greatest imprint left by this century in history, I am afraid that they will count all kinds of things that happened in this unusual period.Because of the major changes it has caused in human life around the world, the impact is not only far-reaching, but also irreversible.What's more, they're still ongoing.When the Soviet Empire came to an end, journalists and commentators alike thought that "the end of a piece of history"; they were all wrong.A more correct statement should be this: in the third twenty-five years of this century, the seven or eight thousand years of human history that began with the Stone Age has finally come to an end.Because up to that time, the vast majority of human beings lived on farming and animal husbandry, and this long period of farming and animal husbandry finally came to an end. Compared with this great change in society, economy, and culture, the historical significance of a period of confrontation between "capital" and "communism" is much narrower in comparison—whether there is any There is no country or government involved, such as the United States and the Soviet Union, each claiming to be the representative of one of them.Maybe in the long run, it's just like the significance of religion or the Crusades in the 16th and 17th centuries.But to anyone who lived through any period of the short twentieth century first-hand, these events are of course very relevant.As such, they carry great weight in this book, because this is a work written by a contemporary author of the 20th century for a contemporary audience of the late 20th century.Social revolutions, the Cold War, nature, the limits of "really existing socialism," its fatal flaws, its eventual disintegration, all are discussed in this book.But there is one thing we must not forget, that is, the various regimes inspired by the October Revolution have their biggest and longest impact, that is, they have effectively accelerated the pace of modernization in backward agricultural countries.The development of facts shows that its main achievements in this field coincide roughly with the golden age of capitalism.As for the strategy of this opponent who wants to put the world built by our ancestors into the grave, how clever his strategy is, and even how conscious he is, there is no need to discuss here.We shall see that until the early 1960s they seemed at least on par with us.Although this point of view, in the eyes of today after the disintegration of Soviet socialism, is unavoidably ridiculous and extremely unreasonable.But at that time, a British prime minister told the US president that the Soviet Union's "economic situation is good... It seems that it is quite ready to catch up with the capitalist society, and it will soon gain a leading position in the competition for material wealth. "(Horne, 1989, p. 303) However, these words are meaningless today.The most succinct point is that by the 1980s, socialist Bulgaria and non-socialist Ecuador were far more alike than they were either at home or with each other in 1939. for close. The disintegration of Soviet socialism, and its enormous consequences (whose effects are still not fully estimated, but mostly negative), was the most dramatic event in the decades of crisis that followed the Golden Age.However, the crisis during this period was not only one aspect of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, but a comprehensive or global major crisis that lasted for decades.Regardless of the political, social, and economic systems of various countries, no one is immune.Because of that golden age, a single global world economy has been established for mankind for the first time in history, and the relationship between it is getting closer and closer, and most of them operate beyond the borders of countries (transnational operations), so , increasingly overriding the consciousness of national territory.As a result, all the traditionally accepted concepts of state power construction have been severely damaged.In the beginning, the sickness that emerged in the 1970s was only hopefully regarded as a temporary setback in the great leap forward of the world economy.Since it is a temporary phenomenon, countries with various political and economic systems have started to find temporary solutions.But when it became clear that the problem was going to be a long-term illness, capitalist countries began to look for radical measures, usually following the teachings of secular theology that advocated absolutely free and open markets.All the policies that worked extremely well in the golden age but are now completely ineffective are cast aside by this theory.It can be seen that this special medicine of extreme laissez faire cannot truly rejuvenate the weakened economy.Moving into the 1980s and early 1990s, the capitalist world found itself once again in trouble.It turns out that the old diseases of the inter-war era have recurred: mass unemployment in society, severe depression cycle, homeless beggars are everywhere, the gap between rich and poor is even wider than before, and the national income is limited, but expenditure is like a bottomless pit Unabated.As for the economies of the socialist countries, they are equally weak and fragile today, and even, in contrast to the past, are gradually - as we all know the consequences - tending to decline.Their disintegration marks the end of the short twentieth century, just as the First World War marked the beginning of this century.So on this last note, I also ended the finale of my short history of the twentieth century. The book's final epilogue—as any book on the early 1990s will—try to look forward to an unknowable future.The passing away of one part of the world is proof that the rest of the body is sick.As the 1980s came to an end and time entered the 1990s, the nature of the world crisis became more and more obvious: not only is the economy generally depressed, but political problems are everywhere.From Istria in Yugoslavia to Vladivostok, the fall of communist regimes has not only created a large political vacuum of instability, an uncertain future, frequent civil wars, but also It will completely destroy the international political system that has stabilized international relations for 40 years.In fact, even the domestic political situation of various countries basically depends on this stable world situation: now that the barrier is removed, its unpredictable trend is exposed.Economic jitters have further damaged the liberal democratic political system.Whether it is a parliamentary system or a presidential system of democracy, the system that was used freely in the developed capitalist countries after the Second World War also began to show instability at this time.Various political systems in the Third World have also suffered major damage.In addition, the basic units of modern politics, the so-called territorial, sovereign, independent "nation-states," including the oldest and most stable, are now found in supranational or transnational economic Under the influence, his power is shrinking day by day.And its own territory and national power have also been torn apart by the domestic regional separatism and the confrontation and conflict of ethnic groups.Some of these groups—so ludicrous in the absurdity of history—have gone so far as to make outdated claims to arguing for their own wholly unrealistic miniature sovereign “nation-state” status.The future of politics is uncertain, but its dangers are clear as the short twentieth century draws to a close. The future of the world economy is bleak, and the world's politics are in turmoil, but what is even more disturbing is the pervasive social and moral crisis.This just reflects the earth-shaking changes that human life has undergone since the 1950s.As a result, the 20-year crisis in the human world reflects this dazed and chaotic phenomenon everywhere.Since the "modern" appeared in the early 18th century and defeated the "ancient", all the ideas and premises on which the modern society depends-that is, the "rationality" and "reason" shared by liberal capitalism and communism The assumption of "human nature" - but now they are all in a great crisis one by one.And it was only through this consensus that they temporarily put aside their prejudices and joined hands to take decisive actions against the fascists who abandoned this belief. In 1993, Michael Sturmer, a German conservative observer, made the following very pertinent comments on the issue of belief between East and West: There is a very strange parallel correspondence between things.In the East, the dogma of the state has always insisted that man is the master of his own destiny.But even we in the West used to believe in the same kind of slogans: that human beings are on the way to master their own destiny—just our version, perhaps less formal and absolute.But today, this self-important tone has completely disappeared from the East, leaving only the relative "here with us" (chez nous)—both East and West, which have suffered major setbacks (Bergedorf, 98, p. .95). The only boastful contribution of this era to mankind can be said to be based entirely on the progress of major material achievements based on science and technology.Paradoxically, however, by the end of the era, Western public opinion and self-proclaimed thinkers rose up to reject this material victory. But moral crisis is not a unique feature of modern civilization.This is the structure of human relationships that has existed since time immemorial, our inheritance from the "pre-industrial" and "pre-capitalist" past.And it is on this basis—and we can all see it now—that modern society works.Moral crisis is not a patent of a certain social formation, but a consciousness shared by all social forms.Throughout the ages, human beings have been making strange calls, looking for the unknown "civil society" (civil society), longing for the nameless "community" (community), this phenomenon is actually a lost generation appeal.Words of this kind can still be seen today, but they have lost their original meaning, leaving only out-of-key, tasteless stereotypes.There is no longer any means for group identification, and the only way is to define outsiders who are not in one's own group. For the poet T. S. Eliot, "This is how the world ends—not with a bang, but with a whisper." all have. 3 How did the world of the 1990s compare to 1914?The former is home to five or six billion people, perhaps three times as many as it was on the eve of the First World War.What's more, in the short period of the twentieth century, the high number of deaths due to human causes is unprecedented in human history.最近一次对以“百万为死亡单位计”（megadeaths）的估算，死亡数为1．87亿人（Brzezinski，1993）相当于1900年时世界人口的十分之一以上。 90年代的多数人，身高比父母高，体重比父母重，饮食较佳，寿命也较长——虽然在80和90年代，非洲、拉丁美洲，及前苏联境内遭遇空前灾难，的确使这个改善的现象难以置信。就产品服务的能力与花样而言，90年代的世界也比历史上任何一个时期都为富足。否则，它怎能养活这自有人类以来，人数最为庞大的全球人口呢？直到80年代，世上多数人的生活水准也比他们父母为佳，在已开发的经济领域之内，甚至比他们自己原先所求所想的还要好。本世纪中期的数十年间，人类社会甚至好像寻得了妙方法宝，至少，可以将其无边财富的一部分，以不失公平的方式略加分配，让富国的工人阶级也能沾光。可是到了世纪之末，不平等的现象再度严重，甚至大量出现在前“社会主义”国度：在那里，原本至少还保有着某种程度的均贫。至于新时代人类的教育程度，显然也比1914年时高出许多：事实上，这可能是有史以来的第一次，得以将多数人纳入识字阶级——至少在官方的统计里可以如此显示。然而这项成就若换在1914年出现，可能远比时值世纪之末的现在显得更有意义。因为在官方认定的“最低识字能力”与一般对精英阶级期待的读写程度之间——前者与“功能性文盲”常有着极为模糊的界线——存在巨大的鸿沟，而且日愈加深。 革命性的科技突破，也不断地充满了这个世界。这些胜利所赖以存在的自然科学成就，回到1914年前，虽然可以预见，在当时却几乎都还不曾着手进行。在所有衍生的实际用途之中，最让人注目的发展可能要数传播输送，时空的限制从此几乎不再存在。在这个新世界里，平常人家所能获得的信息、娱乐，远比1914年的皇帝多；每天、每时、每刻，源源不断输入。轻轻按触几个键，远隔千山万水的人们就可彼此交谈。最实际的效果，则在缩短了城乡之间的文化差距，以往城市占有的文化优势从此完全消失。 它的成就如此奇妙，它的进步如此无双；那么为什么，当这个世纪结束之际，却不是在对它的讴歌之中欢声落幕？相反地，却是一片局促不安的抑郁氛围？为什么，一如本篇篇首所列的名家小语所示，回首望人间，为什么如此众多的深思心灵，都对这个世纪表示不满，对未来更缺乏信心？其中原因，不单单因为这是一个人类史上最残酷嗜杀的世纪，其间充满了战祸兵燹，其程度、频率、长度以及死在其战火下的人们不计其数，在20年代期间更几乎没有一天停止。于此同时，也由于它为人类带来了史无前例的大灾难，由历史上最严重的饥荒，一直到有计划的种族灭绝。“短促的二十世纪”，不似“漫长的十九世纪”：19世纪是一段看来如此，事实上也几乎不曾中断的长期进步时期，包括物质、知识、道德各方面，文明生活的条件都在不断改善之中。反之，自从1914年以来，原本在发达国家及中产阶级环境里视为常态的生活水准（而且当时的人极有信心，认为这种生活条件，也正往落后地区及较不开化的人口扩散），却出现异常显著的退化征候。 这个世纪教导了我们，而且还在不断教导我们懂得，就是人类可以学会在最残酷、而且在理论上最不可忍受的条件之下生存。因此，我们很难领会自己这种每况愈下的严重程度——而且更不幸的是，我们堕落的速度愈来愈快，甚至已经陷入我们19世纪祖宗斥之为野蛮的境地。我们已经忘记，当年的老革命者恩格斯（Frederick Engels），听说爱尔兰共和人士竟在英国国会大厅（Westminster Hall）安置炸弹，不禁大受惊吓。因为身为一名老战士，他认为战争应该是向战斗人员，而非对着非战斗人员。我们也忘了，谈到当年沙皇帝俄时代，曾引起世界舆论激愤，并促使数以百万俄国犹太人于1881－1914年间横渡大西洋流亡的屠犹事件，其实按照现代大屠杀的标准而言，当时遇害的人数其实极微，简直无足轻重，不过以打计算而已，而非成百，更不要说以百万计了。我们还忘了当年某次国际大会曾经规定，战争中的交战行为，“决不可于事先未曾明确预警之下即行开始。预告的方式，须陈明理由正式宣战；如不能如此，将用宣战的最后通碟代替。”我们记忆所及，最近有哪一回战争是在如此明说暗示之下方才开始？在20世纪频仍的战祸之中，攻击行为的对象愈发以敌国的经济、基础建设及平民百姓为主要目标。自从一战以来，所有交战国家里面，不幸丧生于战火下的平民人数，远比军事伤亡惨重（只有美国是唯一例外）。我们之中，又有多少人还记得，回到1914年时，以下一段话还为各方视为理所当然的圭臬： 什么是文明的战争？教科书告诉我们，乃是尽量以挫败敌方之武装力量为目的；否则，战争必将进至其中一方完全灭绝方告终止。“欧洲国家之所以已经习于这项作战原则……自有其道理存在。” （Encyclopedia Britannica，XI ed，1911，art：War） 而酷刑、甚至谋杀，竟在现代国家中再度复活，这种现象，虽然并未完全受到忽略，可是我们却忽视了其代表的重大意义。这种倒退，与漫长年月之中（由18世纪80年代西方国家正式废止酷刑起，直到1914年）好不容易才发展完成的法治制度，岂不啻背道而驰的大逆转吗？ 然而，正踩在“短促二十世纪”尽头的这个世界，与当年起点时刻之间的比较，并不是一道“孰多孰少”的历史计算题。因为两者之间，有着极大的“质的不同”，至少可从以下三方面分别述说。 其一，这个世界再也不以欧洲为其中心。在它的春秋去来之间，欧洲已然日渐衰败。当本世纪开始之际，欧洲犹是权势、财富、知识，以及“西方文明”的当然霸主。可是时至今日，欧洲人及其在世界各地的后裔，却已由可能高居世界人口三分之一的顶峰，一降而为最多不过六分之一的地位。他们是人数日渐稀少的少数，他们的国家，其人口成长率几乎或甚至为零。他们的四周，满是贫穷地区不断拥入的移民压力，多数时候——除了1990年之前的美国以外——他们自己也是高筑壁垒，全力遏阻这股狂潮。而以欧洲为先锋开拓出来的工业江山，如今也向他处四迁。过去一度隔洋向欧洲翘首盼望的国家，如澳大利亚、新西兰，甚至连两洋国家的美国在内，都将眼光转向太平洋。他们看见，那里才有未来——不管这“未来”到底代表什么。 1914年时的“诸强”，全部为欧洲国家，如今都已不复当年。有的，如苏联沙皇俄国的继承者，已经消失；有的则声势大落，贬黜到区域性或地方性的地位——也许只有德国例外。“欧洲共同体”（European Community）的设置，这份想要为欧洲建立一个“超国家”单一实体的苦心，并因此为欧洲联合创造出一种共识的努力，以取代旧有对历史源流的国家政府的个别效忠，正足以证明欧洲力量式微的深重。 然而欧洲势力的衰颓，除了对政治史家而外，是否是一项富有普遍重大意义的演变呢？也许事情并非如此。因为这只是表明世界的经济结构和知识文化结构有了某些变化。即便在1914年，美国就已在世界上占居主要的工业经济地位。而在短促二十世纪里征服了全球的大量生产与大众文化，在那时也是以美国为开路先锋、标准模范和一大推进力量。美国，尽管有其独到之处，却是欧洲在海外的延伸，更在“西方文明”的头衔之下，与旧大陆认作同气连枝的一家人。不论美国未来的展望如何，从90年代回头望去，美国确可以将此世纪视作“美国人的世纪”，是一页看它兴起、看它称雄的历史。而19世纪那一些工业化的国家，如今集合起来，也仍为地球上的一霸，是全球财富、经济、科技力量最为雄厚集中的一群。它们的人民，也还是生活水准最高的人间骄子。在世纪末的今天，它们工业的密集度虽然减退，它们的生产虽然移向其他大陆；但是宝刀未老，这些变化，毕竟为它们尚存的实力所弥补，而且不仅仅是补足而已。因此，就此而言，若以为旧有以欧洲为尊或以西方为中心的世界，已然全面衰败，那就过于肤浅了。 第二项变迁的意义，则较第一项为重大。在1914年至20世纪90年代之间，世界已经逐渐演变成一个单一的运作单位。这是前所未有的历史现象，而且也是回到1914年时不可能出现的状况。事实上，就众多目的而言，尤以经济事务来说，全球已经成为基本运作单位。而旧有以领土国家政治为界定的“国家经济”，却一落而为跨国性作业的复杂体。也许，在未来21世纪中期的观察家眼里，“地球村”的建设工程，到了20世纪90年代，依然还未曾进入高层阶段——地球村一词系于60年代为麦克鲁汉所创（Macluhan，1962）。可是不可否认他，某些经济性与技术性的事务，以及科学性的活动，那时的确已经改头换面。而个人生活的许多重要层面，也在其中进行改变，主要由于以前所难以想象的传播输送的高速进步。然而20世纪末期最令人印象深刻的特色，可能即在国际化脚步日益加速与公众建构以及人类的集体行为之间的紧张状态，开始趋于缓和。说也奇怪，私人行为却能与这个卫星电视、电子邮件、越洋上班、在印度洋岛国塞舌尔（Seychelles）欢度佳节的新世界协调无间，安之若素。 第三项变化——就某些方面而言，也是最令人心焦的一项改变——则为旧有人际社会关系模式的解体，而一代与一代之间的连接，也就是过去与现在之间的联系，也随之崩裂而去。这种现象，在实行西方版资本主义的最发达国家里尤为显著。在那些国家中，不论正式或非正式的思想，一向皆为一种非社会（a-social）的绝对个人主义价值所把持；因此而造成的社会后果，即使连力倡这种个人至上的人士也不免为之悔叹。不过，这种趋势举世皆有，不以发达国家一处如此；再加上传统社会及宗教的没落，以及“实存社会主义”社会的瓦解——或自我瓦解——更加有愈发强化之势。 如此一个社会，由众多以自我为中心、以追求自我满足为目的的各个人所组成（所谓满足，究竟是冠以利润、乐趣，或其他任何名目，在此无关紧要）。而各个人之间，除了这个相通点外，其余则毫无关系。其实像这样的一个社会，一向在资本主义的经济理论里面已经隐隐然焉。早在革命时代以来，各种色彩的意识形态观察家们就已预言，维系旧社会的约束力迟早将会解体，并一步步紧追它的进展。早年的《共产宣言》（Communist Manifesto），便针对资本主义扮演的革命角色大为发挥，此话也已经耳熟能详：“资产阶级……已经无情地斩断了把人们束缚于天然首长的形形色色的封建羁绊，它使人和人之间除了赤裸裸的利害关系，除了冷酷无情的'现金交易'，就再也没有任何别的联系了。”不过上面这番话，却不曾道出革命性资本主义新社会在实际运用上的全部真相。 新社会的真实状况，其实并不在于将自己由旧社会继承的一切事物予以封杀，却在选择性地对过去予以改造，以符合一己之用。资产阶级的社会，毫不犹豫，便急急引进“经济上的激进个人主义……将经济过程之中的一切传统关系，撕成两半。”（意指凡是一切有碍它的东西）。在此同时，却担心文化上（或行为道德上）进行“激进个人主义实验”的不良后果（Daniel Bell，1976，p．18）。这其中，其实并没有任何所谓“社会学上的矛盾”（sociological puzzle）存在。因为“自由市场”的法则，虽然原与——比方说——清教徒的伦理道德、不求近利，不图立即回收、勤勉的工作观、家庭的责任与信任等等毫无关系，但是若欲建立一个以私有企业为基础的工业经济，最有效的手段，莫过于与以上这些推动力量相结合。而那些主张废弃道德的个人造反观点，自然得戒之忌之。 马克思和其他预言家的眼光没错，旧日的价值观与社会关系，果然随风飘散。资本主义本身，其实是一股具有不断革命性的大力量。它将一切解体。甚至连它发展乃至生存所寄的“前资本社会”的部分也不放过。根据逻辑演练，它自己自然也难逃一死。它自毁长城，锯断自己端坐的枝干，至少锯掉了其中一支。自本世纪中叶起，它就开始拉动它的锯子。黄金时代以来，世界经济出现惊人的爆炸扩张，在此冲击之下，连同随之而来的社会文化变迁——也就是石器时代以还，影响社会最为深远的重大革命——于是资本主义所赖以存在的枝干开始崩裂，最终终于断裂。这是一个“过去”已经在其中失去地位的世界——甚至包括眼前的过去在内。这是一个旧日的地志航图，那会经个别的、集体的，引导人类度过整个生涯的指南针，如今却再不能代表新面貌的世界。我们行经的景观已经改变，我们航向的大海不复旧观。值此世纪之末，也许这是有史以来，第一次可让我们看见，像这样一个与过去完全不同的世界，将会以何种面目存在。在这样一个世界里，我们不知道，我们的旅程将把我们带向何方；我们甚至不知道，我们的旅程应该把我们带往何处去。 于是，在本世纪步入尾声的时刻，一部分人恐怕已经面对面地碰上如此这般的状况了。而在新的干年里面，更多的人，迟早也得好好正视。但是到了那个时候，人类未来的方向应该已经比今天清楚许多。我们可以回望带我们走过历史的来时路，这也正是本书所欲达到的写作宗旨。我们不知道未来的形貌如何，虽然作者已经忍不住在书中对某些问题试作思索——也就是在方才殒灭的那个时期的残破之中，所浮升的一些现象。让我们一起盼望，但愿新来的年月将是一个较美好、较公平、也较有生机的新世界。因为旧的世纪逝去时，其临终景象并不美啊！