Chapter 18 Chapter 17 1800: a starting point for looking forward and looking forward

In 1800 AD, Napoleon attacked the Austrian army in Italy, Jefferson and Poole were at loggerheads in the US election, and British Prime Minister Peter seemed to have made the merger of Britain and Ireland a fact.Emperor Qianlong of China once called himself "Old Man Shiquan". Only a year after his death, his confidant He Kun was detained and he was ordered to commit suicide by imperial decree. Hundreds of millions of property were confiscated from his home.The rebellion of the White Lotus believers was out of control, and they gained widespread support in Hubei, Shanxi, and Sichuan. The government army repeatedly claimed that the traitors had been defeated and wiped out, but in hindsight it seems that their strength is still expanding.At the suggestion of the governor of Guangdong and Guangxi, the emperor ordered the ban on the import of opium, and the ban on the export of silver had been enacted a year earlier.This series of developments ushered in a new century, a century of failure and extreme difficulty for China.

Judging from the glorious and successful deeds described in the previous chapter, readers cannot help but ask: Why did China go from prosperity to decline so rapidly? Chinese authors usually emphasize dynastic cycles.When Qianlong abdicated, the Qing Dynasty had reached the saturation point of growth.The martial spirit of the Banner Army has since dissipated, and this is no different from the guard system in the Ming Dynasty, and the households registered before are not found in the book.Yongzheng's "Cultivating Integrity", although the salaries of the officials in charge have increased several times, it still cannot cover their yamen's expenses.Not to mention that the habits and cost of living of the bureaucratic class have been increasing day by day, and for the tens of thousands of middle- and lower-level bureaucrats, their salaries are better than nothing.Therefore, corruption cannot be suppressed, administrative efficiency is reduced, various water conservancy projects are in disrepair, famines are not timely rescued, and people take risks and become thieves and bandits.On the eve of the tit-for-tat confrontation between the West and China, the Qing Dynasty had declined before a war.

Today is nearly two hundred years from that time, and our perspective seems to be stretched accordingly.The records of the aforementioned four emperors are brilliant at first glance, but judging from a macro perspective, they have gone against the times.Although there are remaining funds in and out of hands, they have never been used to reform the upper-level organization or strengthen the connection between the upper and lower levels. At this time, there is still no central treasury, and the national revenue and expenditure are still sporadic by tax collectors and appropriators. It is handed over, so all statistics cannot be verified.Even though the economy has made progress, the civil law has not progressed, nor can it complement each other.China is still nothing more than a large bloc of mostly rural areas.

Just because we have nearly two hundred years of history, we can see that China's reform is easier said than done.Most farmers can only command collectively. Since the bureaucrats use 1,500 counties as interchangeable positions, it is not convenient for them to compete with each other to improve technological progress. The history of the Tang and Song Dynasties has provided lessons. The public can only focus on those commonalities, and then they have to focus on the harmony of ideology.When we examine the content of the imperial examinations, the procedures of personnel assessment, and the governance of local governments, we can see that their dependence on ideology is extremely significant.

But conservative forces are in charge, and China is like a huge "submarine sandwich".The upper loaf is called the bureaucratic class, and the lower loaf is called the peasantry.Both are mixed and consistent, lacking individual color.The things in it, whether it is the essence of culture or the policy of administration or the main points of the imperial examination system, are nothing more than a kind of moral standard in people, in order to conform to the simple agreement of the hundreds of millions of small farmers in the countryside.With this moral standard supplemented by criminal law, China lacks the structural strength to become a modern country, and she lacks the necessary resilience.

A modern state whose society is governed by a currency.In the case of division of labor and cooperation, goods and services are exchanged with each other, and the rights and obligations arising therefrom are all clearly stipulated by law.A pluralistic society is possible because the numbers it needs, guided by a sense of fairness, enable its citizens to do things they could not do before.New churches are funded by believers.Artists and freelancers compete against each other to win back patrons and employers.Now it seems that this process is called "progress from feudalism to capitalism" is actually a wrong arrangement in history.In this statement, once the concept of class struggle is put forward, all other principles and procedures are completely obliterated and ignored.Also because this statement has moral implications, coupled with technical difficulties, it is inconvenient for people to analyze the whole issue clearly, ignoring its different developments in the East and the West.

The organization of the Qing Dynasty had its own characteristics, and it was impossible for it to emulate the nation-states of Western Europe.The freedom of the folk in the West comes from the extra city privileges granted in the feudal system.However, the bourgeois power of the bourgeoisie is still unable to constitute a major transformation of society. Only when international trade increases, its proportion in the national economy increases, and the power of commercial wealth extends to agricultural wealth, affecting the overall situation, can constitute strength. Society can be transformed.At that time, the government was still unwilling to admit defeat immediately. It was only unable to resist, so it reluctantly admitted the reorganization. Since then, it has used commercial principles as the basis for its governance.At the same time, the situation in China can be seen from the section described by Adam Smith. He said: "China has always been the richest, most fertile, most well-cultivated, most industrious and populous country in the world. But look at She has been stagnant for a long time now. Marco Polo visited the country more than 500 years ago and praised its cultivation, hard work and large population, almost exactly the same as those who travel to the country today. Probably long before that day , the highest degree of wealth allowed by the country's legal and organizational systems has been reached."

What Smith said about the restrictions imposed by China's laws and organizations on accumulated capital is undoubtedly in line with the truth.When the Ming and Qing governments were constituted, their purpose was to support the majority of small owner farmers, but the latter's mode of production could no longer be improved once it reached a certain saturation point.As already stated above, the basic farm implements have remained the same for 600 years.On the other hand, modern business requires extensive borrowing of funds, separation of managers and ownership, and overall distribution of various technical support factors.These three conditions can be feasible, relying entirely on credit, and credit must be effective before the law and can be enforced by judicial organs.Therefore, the government does not do enough to passively intervene in the fair trade of individuals, so that goods and services can be exchanged with each other. It must have sponsors, judges and police to maintain this system.We only need to look at the financial management of the Ming and Qing governments to conclude that the Third Reich was neither able nor willing to fulfill such responsibilities.China feels that it is not enough to use numbers to manage itself, so it has no choice but to advocate that individuals restrain themselves and be humble to others, but in this way, it is impossible to achieve fairness and reasonableness within the scope of governing hundreds of millions of people.

Smith's stagnation is also worthy of criticism.No country can stagnate for hundreds of years. In fact, during this long period of time, China has undergone several policy changes and iterations.As far back as the 11th century, Wang Anshi was determined to commercialize the finances of the Song Empire one-sidedly.Unfortunately, one of the reasons for the failure was precisely because his plan lacked the support of commercial capital and the people. The tragic results at that time will never be forgotten for a long time.There was no way out for this financial development, and the Yuan Dynasty, which was ruled by the Mongols, failed to contribute any countermeasures. It was not until the Ming Dynasty that the deadlock was broken, and the method was a large-scale and comprehensive retreat.Since then, the central government no longer controls all kinds of financial resources by itself, but uses budgets and quotas to control its extraction and expenditure.The government itself has nothing to do with the most advanced sectors of the economy, and it has also frankly stated that improving the living standards of the people is not its purpose, so the morality it advertises is nothing but earthy.Although the Qing Dynasty had no intention of reforming, in the end, it slightly relaxed the most inflexible management regulations it presided over, such as allowing more currency to circulate, and under certain conditions, it adopted a realistic attitude towards finance, and did not fully expect bureaucrats to restrain themselves From the public, open the sea ban in Guangzhou, etc.But generally speaking, the overall situation has been fixed, and there is no way to overthrow it.The greatest function of the state system is to tangle tens of millions of rural areas together.Ideology is prioritized over technology, cultural influence is more important than economics, and the passivity of bureaucrats at all levels is more important than their ability to adapt to the environment.Even armed conflicts on the borders were not enough to change this style of work. Compared with the highly mobile dynamics of the Second Reich, the Third Reich had no mobility.

Whose fault is this?Are we to blame the reformers of the Song Dynasty for being too rash?If it weren't for their failure, why would no one dare to try to use money as the basis for regulation after 1,000 years?Is Kublai Khan to blame?He only cared about victory and achievement, but did not form a system in China?Do we have to condemn Ming Taizu Zhu Yuanzhang again?Did he overreact to Sung's failure and thus turn the clock back more than any reasonable degree?Did the emperor of the Qing Dynasty also have sins?They only want to be Chinese-style emperors, but dare not truly restore the strengths of China's inherent culture.Even the situation is different now and then. They lived in the 17th and 18th centuries. How much should they know about the outside world?To put it simply, from a short-term perspective, one or all of the above hypotheses can be collected to form a convincing topic.

But putting these deeds together and looking at it coherently, we feel that there are unavoidable geopolitical factors in it, and its influence exceeds the sum of all historical figures and dynasties.In the preceding chapters, various arguments have been put forward before and after, which can all be attributed to the historical influence given by the integrity of the Asian continent.With a 2,000-mile vulnerable front, China had to form a whole in order to survive.Strategically, it is necessary not only to take into account the strength of the offensive, but also to be able to have an impact on the desert area. In particular, it is necessary to prepare the rear, resulting in the persistence of long-term operations.More importantly, there must be logistical capabilities to support the above two requirements.Under these conditions, the predominance of quantity over quality was asserted.The climate of the Asian continent is such that all the emperors and central government officials have to constantly think about hunger and possible rebellion and rebellion.How to make life richer and richer can only come after these concerns.In addition, to prevent local forces from threatening the central government, noble manors cannot be considered. In this case, the only way to directly collect taxes is from individual farmers.Simplicity and uniformity became the most important principle.It is not easy to hold a trial under this system. The cost of the court and the training of a group of professional talents proficient in law have to be carefully considered.With the above prerequisites, economically more appropriate arrangements, such as the "Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms" at the turn of the Tang and Song Dynasties, the more efficient state facilities in the south could not last long.The great empires in Chinese history, such as the Han Dynasty and the Tang Dynasty, were all built on the basis of rough lines.The Song Dynasty's focus on currency was more advanced, but the result was still swept away by the relatively backward Ming Dynasty system.The advantages and disadvantages of the Qing emperors are already in front of them. From the perspective of long-term historical rationality, they are invited to untangle a constitutional (this refers to the unwritten constitution, that is, the basic organization) deadlock. Their culture The degree is low, so far it has grown up.Because they have nothing to worry about, they can treat each other more equally.They are also more willing to learn, because their political programs are supported by a social environment that always focuses on the most important things and pays attention to satisfying the most basic human needs. Thus, a dire scenario is presented in advance: one day China will be forced to transform, and the revolutionary process will undo what has been done for 1,000 years.In Western Europe and Japan, commercial governance can be launched from the middle of the organization, and businessmen can make effective contributions. In China, commercial discipline and organization need to be imposed on hundreds of bureaucrats or hundreds of millions of farmers.However, the social habit has always paid no attention to civil law. In private property rights, a gentleman has the habit of not talking about interests, and he uses self-restraint and the dogma of humility to block legitimate debates.With these complicated factors, the revolution in the future will definitely take a long time to liquidate all this, and it will also be tragic. Now we can re-examine the dynastic cycle from the standpoint of 1800: Qianlong's record is not as perfect as he said.At first, he did not accept a sound financial system, as recent studies have found.As shown in the He Kun incident, he had many unspeakable deeds during his lifetime. He carefully concealed his shame at that time, and it was only gradually exposed afterwards.In the traditional bureaucratic style, the truth always comes from top to bottom, and the statistics reflect the requirements and wishes of the superiors. The "Shiquan martial arts" of the "Shiquan old man" is mainly performed by the "green battalion" composed of Han people. They have suffered serious losses, but they have not announced it to the public.The White Lotus Sect had been a secret society for a long time, and in fact openly rebelled during the last few years of his Yuyu. Closely related to mass uprisings is the population explosion caused by the past 150 years of internal peace and prosperity.By 1800, China's population had approached or far exceeded 300 million.There is no doubt that during the reign of the first four emperors of the Qing Dynasty, the population they ruled doubled.In this agricultural country, labor is capital, and agricultural surplus is difficult to transfer to other areas to make profits, and it is only conveniently used to support the population.Potentially new arable land became scarcer, and the country fell, unfortunately, into the Malthusian category of "dismal science."Ma's population theory was at the same time as the French Revolution, only 10 years earlier than Qianlong's death date. Closer to 1800.Shanxi Zhipiao Bank has begun to set up branches in major cities.Between Suzhou and Nanjing, there are said to be tens of thousands of satin looms for silk fabrics.The manufacture of salt, copper, and porcelain employed large numbers of laborers.These rumors are usually contained in various materials sporadically, lacking detailed records, and sometimes make current readers feel confused and suspicious.In fact, these situations at best show that until the European Industrial Revolution, there were still some examples of independent concentration of wealth in China, which did not exist in the West.But these sporadic plots are not enough to form a system.If we must use the term capitalism, we must imagine it as an organization and a movement.When a society changes from an "agricultural system" to a "commercial system", not only must its legal tools be fully adjusted to adapt to the new environment, but all the people must also undergo considerable preparations. There is a kind of social coercion. Individuals and companies give credit to each other. The money involved proves that private property rights have been fixed. Therefore, division of labor and cooperation to exchange services and goods can be done without education, and voluntary participation is not required to be persuaded.Therefore, the crux is not the amount of property, but how this wealth can be exchanged for investment so that it can continue to grow and generate profits.As of today, all countries have experienced such a period of breakthrough and found that the transformation is irreversible.China in 1800 showed no sign of approaching this procedure.Therefore, it is meaningless to say that China has "the germ of capitalism" by combining the above exceptions. This is equivalent to saying that a child does not call him a child, but reluctantly calls him a "prepared adult". The Qing Dynasty was known for its "pragmatism" in academics. Before 1800, several great novels had appeared.But the so-called pragmatism here just means that the scholars at that time did not imitate the metaphysical conjectures of Song Confucianism, nor did they imitate Ming Confucianism, which was close to practicing Zen for epiphany.They still lack a material environment sufficient to enable them to think independently.So they can't get rid of the deep-rooted social values. Since these social values ​​are inseparable from the bureaucratic managerial control, they don't doubt it.This group of thinkers has corrected some of the pretentiousness of past scholars, but the so-called pragmatists have followed Confucian classics and history, and have never been able to produce a perspective to see what the naked eye cannot see.What is the use of pragmatism?It is not about breaking away from one thought system in order to create another.Science, as Bacon and Descartes discovered, arises from long and persistent disbelief.The pragmatists of the Qing Dynasty were not as thorough, nor did they have the level of the Greek scientists, believing that the laws of nature need to be continuously unfolded (this idea would later have an effect on the European Renaissance), and the pragmatism of the Qing Dynasty could not yet produce a warring states period. The multiple forms of "a hundred schools of thought contending" in the era. The novels of the Qing Dynasty also have their unique features.They wrote down the details of the living conditions at that time in a very leisurely manner, which cannot be outlined by other words.But from the perspective of historians, these novels are still products of bureaucracy.With a beautiful color, it is too nostalgic for the past, too emotional, too feminine; extremely ironic, but it seems like a collection of essays.The author's outrage and self-pity speak of the narrowness of their lives, which their readers and admirers must have deeply understood and sympathized with. Are we criticizing an era too much?If our purpose is only to describe the eighteenth century, it can be said that the argument is too harsh.We could have followed the European Enlightenment, admiring China as a good example of social harmony, or, like the French Physiocrats, believing that the Chinese always focused their attention on the important Otherwise, you can learn from the artisans of the day and appreciate various chinoiserie items, from hollow carvings on teak tables and chairs to lacquer vases several feet high.Its appearance is as exquisite as silk and satin.But one-sided elegance and nobility only lead to crises and dangers on the other.1800 AD was only 40 years before the Opium War. When that day came, soldiers from China and Manchuria would use outdated spears and broadswords to deal with a group of enemies crossing the sea with 540 cannon mounted on 16 ships.Afterwards, there were 150 years of misery and deeds that followed, and these deeds also stemmed from the pressure and tension generated by the same basic reason, all the way down to the Cultural Revolution.Outside observers can't see the ins and outs of it clearly, so the analysis will be titled "Root of Madness". Although we have harsh criticisms of China in the 18th century, the intention is nothing more than to show that there is indeed a "root" in it, but there is no "crazy".If the reader is willing to go back, there is still an explanation for the seemingly incredible place.Its roots are both geographical and historical.In that case, 1800 is not a splitting point, it is an appropriate starting point, let us stop for a while and reflect on it backwards and forwards.