Chapter 11 "Fifteen Years of Wanli" and My "Big" View of History

The title of the English version is "1587, A Year of No Signifi-cance", and the French version is "1587, Le Declin de La Dynastie des Ming".In addition, there are German, Japanese and traditional Chinese versions, all of which have been prepared for a long time, and are expected to be completed in the summer and autumn of this year. The first draft of this book was completed in the summer of 1976, and it was still in the period when the "Gang of Four" was in power. Of course, it cannot be expected to be published in China.Even the English version has gone through numerous setbacks.In the American publishing industry, the distinction between commercial and academic is extremely strict.For commercial publishing, TV and advertisements are used as the pioneers, and the principle is to sell a large number of short-term sales and quickly end them. Otherwise, books will be piled up in the warehouse, hindering the circulation of funds and delaying future business.Publishing in the academic world is handled by the publishing houses of each university. They are more optimistic about economic concerns, but they also have to worry about the reputation and status of the school.Moreover, the study of Sinology in the United States also has its own unique features.General style, focusing on analysis rather than synthesis.The professors in each university are all experts. Because of their detailed division of labor, countless young scholars have been trained. They all put on the eyes of the microscope. Few people pay attention to the viewpoint of the telescope; .In every way, it's somewhere in between.So the commercial bookstore said that although your article mentioned court life and grievances between concubines, although there is some interest, but because of Hai Rui, it involved the Ming Dynasty's finances; because Li Zhi mentioned Chinese thought, it should be an academic work.The University Press thought that this book was neither like a history of dynasties nor a monograph, and lacked analysis and dissection. It was really neither fish nor fowl, and they were unwilling to print it.Therefore, in 1979, Yale University Press resolutely eliminated prejudice and agreed to publish.Beijing Zhonghua Book Company accepted the Chinese version when the "Gang of Four" fell and the domestic situation was still green and yellow.

Now there are so many versions, and the English version has been adopted as a textbook by several universities in the United States. Three editions have been published, and it has been recommended by John Updike, a contemporary literary giant, in a famous magazine.The first edition of nearly 30,000 copies in Chinese has also been sold out, and a reprint is planned, and a hardcover edition will be released.This is what excites the author. But this book still only represents part of the author's opinion, not the whole history's point of view.The author mentioned in the Chinese version of "Preface"; this book "explains the traditional historical background of Chinese society in the 16th century, that is, the side form that has not yet conflicted with the world trend. With such a big historical failure, it can be guaranteed that the conflict will It is absolutely impossible to return to the old state, thus leaving China with an opportunity to turn the world upside down and completely create history."Obviously, despite such positive expressions, the writing in the book still focuses on exposing the weaknesses of Chinese tradition.Even Optai's book review also felt that criticizing bad things about China should be compared with criticizing bad things about the West and the United States.Moreover, what readers of the Chinese version cannot see is that the English and French versions have a preface written by Dr. L. Carrin-gton Goodrich.The man is 90 years old, his parents were missionaries in China and were buried in Tongzhou.He himself worked in the Chinese Youth Association, focusing on advocating children's sports, and during the First World War, he led Chinese laborers in France.He later taught for many years at Columbia University in New York.Shang played tennis with his wife last year.Its broad-mindedness is rare in contemporary times.He often reminds us not to think that the current situation is in danger and ignore the greatness of China.The English version of "Fu Preface" has the following paragraph:

Historians may re-examine the mistakes of the pastin the hope of providing warnings for the future, but at the same time caution their readers to preserve what is of value. Presumably, for China the experiences of both East and West must be drawn upon. It is essential that the historian lay everything on the table. French says: Les historians peuvent soumettre les erreurs dw passea un nouvel examen dans l'espoir d'y trouver des avertis-sements pour l'avenir, mais ils peuvent en meme tempsrecommander a leurs lecteurs de conserver ce qui a de lavaleur. La Chine a sans doute beaucoup a tirer desexperiences de l'Orient comme de l'Occident. Il est es-sentiel que l'historien ne cache rien de ce qu'il sait.

Translated into Chinese is: Historians review past mistakes as warnings for the future.But at the same time, readers should also be advised to preserve valuable things.Based on this conjecture, it is extremely necessary for China to adopt the experience of the East and the West in the future.Therefore, those who make history must tell all the information in full. The preface also stated: "To inspect China's bureaucratic system is not to deny the entire Chinese culture." It can be seen that the author, preface, and book review all said that there are endless things to talk about, which should be left for future explanations.But a book, after all, has its scope.Moreover, the initial conception, the world situation has changed considerably in the past ten years.That is to say, when we are writing history and appreciating history, the historical things we are in have also changed.Ten years ago, it was not possible to fully reveal the information, but now it can.With this kind of opportunity, the author can talk with editors and readers more informally without hesitation.

※※※ Before the author's name in Chinese, there is a word [美], which means that I am now a U.S. citizen.This not only commends the facts, but also meets the current needs.Because my so-called "macro-history" view must have an international character, I very much hope that the spirit of the four seas is my home, to enhance the understanding between the East and the West, and to eliminate prejudices.This is not an easy matter, and even overseas, it is still a subject of controversy. I have thoroughly criticized China's substitution of morality for law.However, there are still many Westerners who think that Western laws are the root of morality.This misunderstanding is also to be criticized.For example, the so-called "freedom" and "democracy" in the West are abstract concepts.Only through the geographical and historical factors of each country can it work.British democracy cannot be the same as Japanese democracy, and French freedom is also different from American freedom.Although I make this kind of argument now, it is still my personal opinion, which does not represent the current trend of the United States.Looking at China from this point of view requires an open mind to accommodate it.So on the one hand, I firmly believe that the founding spirit of the United States has a great sense of justice. As long as the difference between the two is clearly explained, many misunderstandings will be cleared up.On the other hand, when publishing articles in China, it is especially important to emphasize that morality is not omnipotent.The point of view of big history, that is, from the "technical perspective of history" (technical interpretation of his-tory).As for where to put morality, that is also a serious question.Let me talk about it gradually.

※※※ The first thing to explain clearly is that the big historical view cannot be seen in books alone.Especially not only individual ingenuity can be comprehended.My experience is reflected in the decades of traveling around, hearing different explanations, and then because of the torture and torture of life.When I was a child, I was very much influenced by Ma Qian from the Taishi Company, and my head was full of legendary hopes and ideas.In the second year of the Anti-Japanese War, he dropped out of school to join the army.What he studied was the Chengdu Military Academy run by the Kuomintang. After graduation, he worked as a platoon leader in the 14th Division of the National Army stationed on the Yunnan border.Later, he also went to the Indian Army, served as a staff officer under the command of General Zheng Dongguo, and accompanied him from the front line of Burma to Shanghai and entered the Northeast.I also witnessed General Du Yuming commanding the battle.It was a fluke that I myself was not involved in the civil war.Nai was sent to the American Army Staff College after three months in the Northeast.Later, he was discharged from the Tokyo Mission to Japan with the dismissal of General Zhu Shiming.However, during the period of cooperation between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party in the early days of the Anti-Japanese War, I met many left-leaning celebrities of the day, such as Mr. Tian Han, Shouchang, who composed the national anthem, and for me, Uncle Tian.He once told me about countless hardships and struggles when I was young.His eldest son, Tian Hainan, is my younger brother in Hainan. He also went to Chengdu with me, served in the 14th Division, served as a scout in Vietnam occupied by the Japanese army, and also worked in the Indian Army.I also had a run-in with him once, and the fight was not about partisanship or fame, but the opportunity to be an observer on the infantry front.The incident was published in Chongqing Ta Kung Pao on June 12, 1944.Unexpectedly, as soon as the Anti-Japanese War ended, he automatically joined the People's Liberation Army, made substantial contributions to the training of armored troops and artillery, and went to the Korean front.Brother Liao Mosha, who lived with us and ran the newspaper that day, will be the only surviving veteran of Sanjia Village.In the Wuhan era, Brother Fan Changjiang had no party or affiliation and worked as a reporter for "Ta Kung Pao".His original name was Xitian, and he joined the army during the Northern Expedition, and the troops were dispersed.He once told me personally that when he was poor and sick, he committed suicide by diving, and changed his name to Changjiang after he was rescued.Once upon a time, he was the person in charge of Xinhua News Agency and People's Daily, and he was released in Queshan during the Cultural Revolution.Looking back on these things today is like a dream.

Because I had these experiences, my position was complicated at the beginning, and I couldn't agree with the views of modern history made by ordinary people.What's more, after coming to the United States for the second time, I have nothing to wash, wash dishes in restaurants, and do small jobs in warehouses.After working all day, he retired to a small room, no one talked to him, and there was a buzzing in his ears.Feeling deeply that the storm has subsided, I myself have entered middle age, and since then I have tended to explore the meaning of life when studying history.And that's just the beginning.Later, I got to know many famous people, read all kinds of works, and traveled all over the world.After being laid off and unemployed, feeling the economic crisis and being discriminated against with my family, I became more and more magnified, and realized that personal abilities are limited, and the true meaning of life must be obtained in history, and the regularity of history, sometimes in You can't see it clearly in a short time, but you need to open your eyes for a long time to see it.

※※※ The Chinese revolution is like a long tunnel that takes 101 years to pass through.Our life is long and sad to be 99 years old.Weighing the long with the short is just our personal response to history, not enough for big history.Only by pushing back the basic point of history by three or five hundred years can we absorb the outline of the big history.This approach has been initially adopted.So the narrative might as well be detailed, but the conclusion should look at the far and not the near.For example, whether Zheng Guifei is a slanderer or not, and whether she is a country evildoer, has little to do with today's people.The reason why people in the Ming Dynasty wanted to make a fuss in these places shows that their moral concepts were too narrow and technology could not be developed.My book has also been used as a textbook for European and American students. Of course, those teachers would not require students to explain on the test papers that the decline of the Ming Dynasty was due to the Taichang Emperor Zhu Changluo, who was not born to Concubine Zheng, but to Concubine Gong.Looking at it from the perspective of big history, they should see the structure of the late Chinese traditional society when reading my book. It is like the "submarine sandwich" in the United States today. ; There is also a long loaf below, and there is no effective organization. These are thousands of farmers.Among the three basic organizational principles, namely, respect for men, women, and children, none of them involves economics, the rule of law, and human rights, and none of them can be reformed and utilized.The 15th year of Wanli is 1587 AD, and there are still 253 years left before the Opium War. However, due to the centralization of power, technology cannot be developed, finances cannot be verified, and armaments can only be based on the lowest efficiency factor, it is the same before and after.If we read "The Opium War Through the Chinese Eye" by the Englishman Arth-ur Waley today, we can see that the situation in 1840 was not much different from that in 1587.And my own "The Battle of Liaodong in 1619" also has a small historical plot.For example, Liu Ting, Chinese sources say that he died in battle; Manchurian files say that he was executed after being captured; Korean sources say that he ignited gunpowder and blew himself up to death.The article was published in the Orient Extremus of the Federal Republic of Germany.From a historical point of view, Fang Congzhe and Yang Gao lost their teachers and generals, and there were many political, economic, and social reasons behind them, which were very similar to the Sino-Japanese War in 1894-1895.Therefore, berating Qishan, Qiying, and Emperor Daoguang is of no help. Even cursing Emperor Guangxu, Li Hongzhang, and Ding Ruchang can only be the same as cursing Zheng Guifei and Fu Wang Changxun.

From a big historical point of view, even the structure of the submarine sandwich has its roots.From the Ming Dynasty, it can be rolled back to other dynasties.The main reason is still affected by the weather and geography of the Asian continent.In this regard, I once wrote an essay with the British sinologist Dr. Joseph Needham.Now I am still doing individual research work.Its main focus is on long-term important developments in history. When many things are involved, it is difficult to be summed up by the sages and fools of a few people.There must be its backside and side, that is, factors that we have not seen clearly, this is a later story.Now, from the end of the Ming Dynasty, through the 268 years of the Qing Dynasty to the early years of the Republic of China, it can also be seen from the base point of the submarine sandwich:

＊Traditional Chinese society cannot be partially reformed. In the past, the relationship between the government and the people was focused on respecting men, women, elders and children, and relying solely on the imperial examination system. After the cessation of the imperial examinations in 1905, the upper-level institutions (superstructure) and the lower-level institutions (infrastructure) became more disconnected, and the fall of the Manchu Qing Dynasty was even more inevitable. ＊After the founding of the Republic of China, the warlords separated the regime, which is also a natural trend.Because new forces have not yet emerged, during the transition period, they can only be supported by private military forces.This private military force is limited by the constraints of transportation and communication, and can only be effective in one or two provinces.The competition outside the province has led to a melee situation.

*During the Kuomintang dictatorship, a high-level organization was created, which finally ended the warlord melee, but it was all maintained by the urban economy. *The Agrarian Revolution of the Communist Party created a new low-level institution in the countryside.Now China's current task is to lay institutional links between high-level institutions and low-level institutions so that from top to bottom, it can be managed with economic and legal methods and break away from bureaucratic monopoly. This is not to say that all the characters in the whole century have no gains and losses from virtuous and foolish people, but their virtuous and foolish gains and losses are not enough to change the above-mentioned process of historical development.The big historical focus focuses on the long-term contributions of mass movements to society.If it were not for these positive factors, China would still be the same in 1980 as it was in 1910, and it would be impossible for China to survive today.When I explain history in this way, it transcends the differences between parties and international boundaries. That is, I can explain it to teachers and classmates separated by oceans, and to the spirits of deceased friends who died during the Civil War. ※※※ When we read history when we were young, we often felt that China was not as good as others. Why did Japan do everything well within a few decades during the Meiji Restoration, while China seemed to be doing worse and worse.Only now can I see that Chinese culture is a product of the geography of the Asian continent. The material civilization of Europe, America and Japan has the experience of their maritime countries. Moreover, the development of each country also has its own sequence, and the biggest difference is the modern civilization. In advanced countries, commercial laws are used as the connection between high-level organizations and low-level organizations.Backward countries base their administration on old-fashioned rural habits and structures. As soon as we mentioned this issue today, first of all, before we have a clear grasp of the issue, we must first be questioned whether the author stands on the standpoint of capitalism.However, according to recent research by French historian Fernand Braudel, the term "capi-talism" was a product of the late 19th century and was only widely used in the 20th century.Although Marx called "capitalists" (capitalists) and "capitalist era" (capitalist era), he did not use the term "capitalism".The first thinker of capitalism that we recognize today is in fact Adam Smith.He himself doesn't know what capitalism is. His book "Original Rich" was marketed in China in the early years of the Republic of China.And when he wrote in the 18th century, he only said that the regulation method of commerce was superior to the regulation method of agriculture.From the standpoint of studying big history, this method of analysis can best express the development process of each country.It is also not possible to use abstract moral concepts to obliterate the actual role and effectiveness of technology.China today advocates seeking truth from facts. I think it is even more important to collect data that have not been misused, push back the historical basis for several centuries, and re-examine the procedures of many countries from backward to advanced with a primitive perspective. From this point of view, the pioneers in Europe in the form of "capitalism" are actually free cities in Italy, and the leader is Venice. This city has limited economic power in the agricultural areas on the mainland, and the city's alkaline water is inconvenient. Manufacturing, between the Pope and the Holy Roman Empire (itself not in Italy but in Germany and Austria) struggled for power, and achieved independent status.Its greatest convenience is that the place is small and the internal organization is simple. After the 13th century, the entire country was like a big city and a big company, and all civil laws were commercial laws, so regardless of Catholic teachings, it built a navy and tried its best to do business, making it the most advanced country in Europe. Following the rise of Venice, it is the Netherlands, whose official name is "Kingdom of the Netherlands" (Koninkrijk der Nederlanden).Also known as The Dutch Republic, or United Netherlands in history.The Netherlands (Holland) is just one of the seven provinces in the Federation (11 provinces today).But when the country became independent in the early 17th century, the population of the Netherlands accounted for 2/3 of the country.It also supplies 3/4 of the federal funds.The Netherlands united all Dutch people to become an independent country because of its resistance to the Spanish government and participation in the religious revolution.In the past, there was no experience in unifying the country and society, and the economic development was uneven.Obviously, although the Netherlands is advanced in industry and commerce, many provinces in the Netherlands maintain their medieval form and are backward rural institutions.The same law cannot be enforced throughout the territory, so a federal system is implemented, major matters are decided by the federation, and other provinces take care of themselves.It is the first of its kind to open a two-tiered politics in a modern country.Initially, the Netherlands insisted on its independent diplomatic sovereignty.The federal navy is also made up of 5 naval units.Although the whole country converted to the Protestant Calvinists (Calvinists), at the beginning of independence, many believers made special interpretations of the so-called "Predestination" of the teachings of this school in order to support their respective political activities.However, the Netherlands eventually became one of the most prosperous and powerful countries in the world due to the fierce competition in the foreign economy and its own high-level economic development, which gradually resolved its internal conflicts. After the Netherlands, the rapid development of commercial capital is the United Kingdom.England and Scotland are called the "United Kingdom", which is between 5 and 6 times larger than the Netherlands.We may look small today, but Europe before the 18th century was a large country with a strong agricultural foundation.Before the commercial organization of this country is launched, it is often hindered by various advanced countries.For example, the banking industry was monopolized by the Italians, and later the insurance industry was also controlled by the Dutch.Italians also enjoy consular jurisdiction in the city street of London called Lombard Street (Lombard Street).British exports are dominated by wool.The Italians first advance money to the livestock farming villages, buy the wool in advance, and control its overseas markets.The whole of the seventeenth century in England can be called a troubled time.At first, the Emperor and the Parliament clashed, finance and taxation became the focus of disputes, religious issues disturbed the country, judicial power was also a problem, and foreign relations were suspicious. The great changes in the second revolution brought about assassinations, exclusion of heretics, distributing leaflets, and the plot of the emperor receiving foreign subsidies, and its population was only 4 to 6 million. .Of course, this history is open to many different interpretations.Not only do different historians have conflicts in writing books, but sometimes the same author also interprets different books before and after. What I really want to mention to Chinese readers is that the British experience in 1689 is a good reference for China's big history.Before this era, England was a "mathematically unmanageable country" (mathematically unmanageable), and there were different opinions on the law, and there were three or four different types of courts.The so-called common law is a relic of the Middle Ages. It absolutely respects conventions and cannot do anything that has not been done before; it pays attention to the right to use real estate.The ownership is unclear; there is no proper rhetoric to explain the inheritance of movable property; the pawn of real property does not meet the social demand for cash, and there is no way to adjust the land rent according to the current price; crops can only be sold locally, limited to Historically based market.Others such as organizing the company and declaring bankruptcy are not mentioned at all.In short, this law rests on the customs of the past and has no intention of reform.In the early 17th century, a large amount of silver was imported from the Western Hemisphere, and prices rose sharply. The British mainland was also affected by international trade and international wars, and the whole society was shaken.Landlords were unable to maintain their property, merchants were unwilling to pay additional taxes, the royal family was unable to raise wages due to the increase in armaments, and ordinary poor and small citizens were also forced by life and sometimes emotionally impulsive.The abstraction in religious teachings fuels their fire even more. Both parties have reasons for the dispute between the so-called monarchy and civil rights. The difficulty is that the scope of the problem has exceeded the established rules. After the bloodless revolution of 1689, there was no such sign.The previous problems stirred up half a century, and gradually faded away here.The conflict of religious sects also seems to be forgotten.The biggest key is that after the fighting and turmoil, the rural organization has changed.In the 17th century in Britain, of course, there was no such thing as an equalization of land rights, and what was reformed was internal regularization.The previous confusion where landlords did not know where their property was and farmers did not know whether they were tenants or half-owners was gradually eliminated.The previously unknown situation has gradually become regular.The acceptance of equity by common law courts is also a sign of progress.The law of justice itself is not a law, but a legal concept, which is equivalent to the custom of "acting according to the principles of nature and conscience".When it was first launched in the UK, it was limited to certain courts controlled by the Emperor, with the intention of extra favor. After the middle of the 17th century, the common law courts were forced by the facts to make some concessions to this concept because of the needs of the times.The result is that a small amount becomes a large amount, and the compromise method is considered to be a routine. After the Revolution of 1689, the common law courts were further directed by the Chief Justice.In the future, cases related to merchants will be handled according to commercial customs.In this way, the distance between Britain's inland and coastal areas, rural areas, and industrial and commercial centers was shortened, funds flowed, the real economy became a financial economy, the conditions for exchange (interchangeability) increased, and the division of labor was more complicated than before. Therefore, the entire country can be managed numerically.At the same time, Britain has traditionally had a history of judicial independence and parliamentary politics.In this way, the most flexible commercial principles can be used between its high-level organizations and low-level contacts.The strength and efficiency of controlling the economy at one time are unrivaled in the world.The British Empire thus dominated the world for centuries. Therefore, commercial capital as the basis of national organization has always grown from small to large, gradually spreading from countries without agricultural foundations to small countries with agricultural foundations, and even spread to countries with very high agricultural foundations.From easy to difficult, there are certain laws in history.This procedure is not easy to see today, because there have been two exceptions in the United States and Japan. When the United States became independent, it had been 87 years since the British Revolution of 1689.Therefore, from the very beginning, there is no legal barrier between agricultural society and industrial and commercial society, and the organization of a new society can be developed in an open area, and its population will increase as the area expands.As late as 1862, Congress passed the "Homestead Act" (homestead act), which also allowed ordinary citizens to buy 160 acres of cultivated land at the cheapest price, which was equivalent to buying and giving away.This situation is really special, but it is still because of the different social organizations in the north and the south, and a civil war broke out, which lasted for four years.In addition, there were many disputes over the banking, currency, commercial and trade union organizations in the Federation, and the prevention of dominating the market (anti-trust) to plan labor benefits and pensions, etc., and many disputes occurred.The advantage of the United States is that these problems can be easily solved numerically as the country's wealth continues to increase.In this way, American politics, society and economy all have their own characteristics, and the word "capitalism" cannot be used lightly to represent it, let alone the democracy and freedom he commended as a gift from capitalism.As previously mentioned, the moral values ​​advertised by each country are only valid through its historical geography, and this is especially true in the case of the United States. Traditional Japan seems to be very much influenced by Chinese Confucianism and Buddhism, but because other countries are located in the ocean, they are safe from the outside world and do not need centralized power, which is very different from China's structure.It was at the end of the Tokugawa shogunate that domestic organizations had been commercialized.For example, all the big names have "Tibetan Yuan" who sell crops for them in the city. The so-called "return ship" is also a regular route, and there is also a way for them to insure each other.The organization of the Chamber of Commerce is called "Zhuzhongjian", and the wholesaler is called "Wenwu".In the Meiji Restoration, as long as a new high-level organization was added to it, all commercial control methods would work.So on the surface, it seems to be a short-term breakthrough, but in fact it is a long-term evolution, and it just shows up in the end.Moreover, the Meiji Restoration focused on the development of heavy industry and commerce, leaving farmers' lives behind. Most scholars believe that this is the main reason why Japan's political situation was monopolized by "warlords" and "chaebols" before World War II.This rural problem has to wait until after the war, and it will be resolved under MacArthur's decree.So it's not without serious costs. ※※※ Observing from the above situation, taking the position of one hundred or two hundred years of Chinese history as the starting point cannot be aligned with world history.If one wants to stick to the short-term historical perspective, not only Respighi's music cannot be listened to, but Confucius' benevolence to the people and love of things is also reactionary.If we push back the history of both China and the West by three to five hundred years, we can see that due to the regression of world industrial and commercial technology, all countries have to completely transform their social life from the previous closed-door situation, in order to adapt to the new world financial system. Economy, China and foreign countries are inevitable.Democracy and freedom in the West are based on the "municipal franchise" (municipal franchise), which is similar to the situation in which the daimyo regime in Japan was delegated to Tibetan Yuan, so it is easier to reform.China's founding of the country has always been based on the economic stance of poor peasants and small self-cultivating farmers, and the complex situation in the countryside cannot be undone.So it takes a lot of bloodshed to create a situation that can be managed numerically.According to my guess, only such an explanation can gradually prompt compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait who were affected by the civil war to accept it objectively today. The so-called "one country, two systems" in China today seems to be a propaganda tool at first glance, but the nascent federal system in the Netherlands is actually a manifestation of "one country, two systems".The United Kingdom uses two completely different legal ideas as the basis of its judiciary, and uses the judicial system to quietly integrate society. It is also gradually changing from "one country, two systems" to one country, one system.However, "one country, two systems" is not without danger. When the United States was founded, it was based on the premise of protecting human rights, but because of the federal system's appeasement of slavery in the South, a civil war eventually broke out.Japan tried its best to learn from Western Europe in the 19th century, but ignored the life of farmers, which can also be regarded as one country, two systems, which caused the tragedy of a heinous war.The spirit of "one country, two systems" needs to see each other far away, find the logic of cooperation in the long history, and in the future, only to bring the two sides closer, not further apart. Technically speaking, the implementation of this country, two systems must have many difficulties in today's China, but it is not impossible.Sixty or seventy years ago, when Dr. Sun Yat-sen wrote the Three Principles of the People, he mentioned that on the one hand, private capital should be restricted, and on the other hand, private capital should be supported. At first glance, it seems to be contradictory. Mr. Sun was also criticized as unrealistic. , It is a general trend in the world.Moreover, although the United States is called a capitalist country, it has not given up its position of restricting private capital. What makes us most confident is that it is impossible for any country in the world to use any "ism" to solve problems. We must overcome difficulties in a desperate situation and create a new environment.The United Kingdom practiced democracy and still preserved the royal family that has been in the same line for a thousand years. Dr. Minobe of Japan wrote "the theory of the emperor's agency" before the Second World War, which was quite deviant.Today, his theory has been confirmed by the facts.In the Han Dynasty, China used Confucianism to cover the thoughts of Legalism, Taoism, and Yin-Yang School.In the Sui and Tang dynasties, Buddhist thoughts were included, all of which were unified in contradictions.It can be seen that the needs of the times make it impossible to become possible. ※※※ Interpreting history in this way is close to what many people call "historicism".At first glance, it seems that what should happen will happen, and what should not happen cannot happen. Ethics and morality have no real meaning. It is emphasized that the superior wins the inferior, "Might is right", but this social nature Social Darwinism is a relic of the previous century, and it is not my experience in reading. It is pointed out that morality is not omnipotent and cannot replace technology, especially law, but it has never been said that morality can be completely eliminated, but that the moral point of view should be far-reaching.Don't get involved in a moral issue first if it can be solved with law and technology first.Because morality is the root of all meaning, it cannot be divided, and it is inconvenient to compromise.If the moral dispute persists and cannot be resolved, and the distance between the two sides becomes more and more distant, it will inevitably lead to war sooner or later.Today, the whole world is under the threat of atomic weapons, and we have to be very cautious in teaching. Under such circumstances, one country, two systems is not only a difficult problem for the Chinese people, but also a test for China.Although morality is higher than law and technology, when the basis for argument is to be raised, it must be put forward after law and technology.It cannot be brought up often, nor in minute detail.When I wrote it, and when I wrote the preface with Mr. Fu Lute, I had not heard the idea of ​​"one country, two systems", so Mr. Fu only said that "it is extremely necessary to adopt the experiences of the East and the West."Today, China is immediately preparing to take back Hong Kong in more than ten years, and it is bound to be the middleman between mainland culture and ocean culture.I said in the preface of the book that "China is left with an opportunity to completely create history", which has become more realistic by now, and its expectations have become more urgent. I have been away from China for 36 years, and I was naturalized in the United States in 1974. Personally speaking, I can see that China can carry forward the tradition of "inheriting the peerless world, abolishing the country, softening the people, and coming to a hundred workers" in the international arena during my lifetime. "the spirit of.In addition, I can do my best to enhance the understanding of all parties in the text, which is also a good thing that I did not expect before.The purpose of writing, of course, is not to make China "disgraceful". Opposing moral concepts in a narrow sense is also for the unity of China and foreign countries.Because of my own life experience, I feel that the Chinese and foreign parties do not lack a sense of justice, but if the sense of justice is used in local situations, it may go against the original intention.Many cruel things in the world are carried out in the name of morality, which is the same at all times in China and abroad.This article mainly focuses on promoting the spirit of positivity, and there is no need to refute it one by one. ※※※ An important experience I have gained overseas in the past few decades is that Western culture has an important strength, that is, in Judaism and Christianity, it is recognized that human beings often do wrong things. It is said that it is "the theory of evil nature", which is the opposite of the Confucian "theory of good nature".Confucius said: "Looking at it, I know benevolence." Mencius said: "Everyone has a heart of shame and hatred." They also admit their mistakes without waiting for external persecution.Having this spirit of admitting mistakes also means that human beings have a tendency to be good.This common point between China and foreign countries, I think today can be used as the basis of generalized moral concepts, and can also be used as the central idea of ​​world history.The narrow sense of morality is based on the narrow sense of the universe, which is to say arbitrarily that the origin of the world is the same as its ending.This is often clearly the truth, but actually contains selfish views, and pre-sets an unrecognizable idea. It is easy to go to extremes, and it can be seen from Hitler's ethnographic theory. The point of view of the big history I am talking about is, on the one hand, accumulated from the small history, and on the other hand, it is also influenced by the German thinker Immanuel Kant. It has been slightly mentioned in the collection of essays on Dr. Joseph Needham’s 80th birthday published in Shanghai in 1982. and.If you use a diagram, the solid line in the figure below represents the knowledge we can verify with experience, that is, what I call the big history. Although it has been more than 3,000 years from the Shang and Zhou Dynasties in China to the People's Republic, it is still not too long in human history. A small paragraph on the arc.What we think of as truth is also intuited in this small area.We are still unable to know the true reason and true purpose of the universe structure, and it is also difficult to predict the true ending and true trend in the future.The use of dotted lines to represent the past and future of this arc is only based on the solid line as a basis and conjecture.The social sciences, like the natural sciences, can only assume that the natu-ral law will gradually unfold.The next generation confirms our discoveries, and may also review our mistakes, just as we see the mistakes of the previous generation. The outward arrows on the graph represent our moral concepts, which are signs of highlighting the environment and creating a new environment.But we can't break away from the basic point of standing firm.Besides, we ourselves have the instinct to continue doing wrong things.This nature is represented by an inward arrow.所以我们所走的路线也只能在内外之间，亦即希望与现实之中的弧形路线，半出于我们的志愿，半由于其他条件推演而成。只是因为今日科技发展之故，旅行于弧线形的速率越来越快。我们只好把向外的箭头画长。这也是本文的宗旨，所以不惮再三解说，要把道德的范畴放得远大，历史观点代表人生哲学，不能受短时间的政策所掩蔽，尤其不能闭户造车，不顾外间情势的单独决定。 这一篇已经写得很长，我感谢编者及读者的耐性，知道我所谓大历史包涵一种大而化之的精神，作者无意自高自大，或是大而无当，或是尾大不掉。这文章今日能在中国发表，即是中国革命业已成功，全国已经能在数目字上管理。如果中国历史过去全靠自辟门径，今后则可以像太空的人造卫星一样，和其他人造卫星在空间联系，虽有所谓资本主义及社会主义的差别，也无妨大局。 我个人方面，不但希望中国与西方各国家有这样的联系，也仍希望把中国历史开诚布公的写好，可以促进与其他社会主义国家的了解。据中猜想，今日很多国家外间称之为独裁或极权，其实其内部都还有很多不能在数目上管理的原因，历史家虽不能解决他们的问题，从侧面分析，至少可以逐渐窥测这些问题的真貌。我因为有了这些宏愿，才胆敢自称为大历史观。“登高自卑”，英文版书名中译则为《无关紧要的一五八七年》，也可以说是实行愚志的第一步。 黄仁宇（Ray Huang）