Chapter 4 Chapter 1 The Most Precious Thing

When I got off the plane, he was already there.He held up a piece of cardboard with my name on it.I'm going to a meeting of scientists and television broadcasters about increasing science programming on commercial television, an effort that seems hopeless.The conference organizers were kind enough to send a car to pick me up. While waiting for the checked luggage, he said, "Do you mind if I ask you a question?" "No, of course I don't care." "Won't you be confused by the same name as that science guy?" It took me a while to understand the meaning of his question.Isn't he playing tricks on me?I finally understood what he meant.

I said, "I'm the science guy." He froze for a moment, then smiled: "I'm really sorry. I can't recognize the person. I also think that person is you." He held out his hand. "My name is William F. Buckley." (Oh, he really isn't that William F. Buckley, but he does have the same name as that famous, argumentative TV interviewer. For that he undoubtedly Will often be made some good-natured jokes.) When we sat in the car and started our long journey, the wipers in front of the windshield were swinging rhythmically back and forth.He told me he was glad I was the "science guy" and said he had a lot of science questions for me and asked if I would mind.

No, I won't mind. So we chatted.But the topic is not science.He wanted to talk about sympathy for aliens in freezing cold storage at an Air Force base near San Antonio, "portals" (a way of hearing what the dead were thinking—the dead, it was said, didn't think much), crystal balls.Nostradamus' prophecy.Astrology, the shroud of Turin….He explained to me each omen predicted with great enthusiasm, but each time I had to disappoint him. "The evidence is flimsy," I kept saying, "it's all oversimplified explanations." In a way, he read a lot.He knew all sorts of speculative and miraculous things few knew, such as the "sunken continents" Atlantis and Lemuria.He was well acquainted with the possible forthcoming undersea surveys that would uncover the collapsed arches and broken minarets of a once glorious civilization now visited only by fish that produce luminescence in the deep sea and the fabled giant Scandinavian Kraken.But, despite the many mysteries that lie in the ocean, I know of no subsea photographic or geological evidence to substantiate Atlantis and Lemuria.At the current state of science, they never existed.With some reluctance, I told him my opinion.

As we drove in the rain, I could tell he was getting a little unhappy.What I deny is not just some wrong statements, but the precious things hidden in his inner life. There are many things in real science that are just as exciting.Even more mysterious.A more intelligent challenge, and much closer to the truth.Did he know that there are molecular structures brewing life in the cold and thin interstellar gas?Had he heard of the footprints of early human ancestors found in 4 million-year-old volcanic ash?Did the Indian plate collide with the Asian plate causing the uplift of the Himalayas?How do viruses needle DNA through an organism's defenses and alter the cells' ability to replicate?How to use radio waves to find alien intelligence?Is it the newly discovered ancient civilization of Ebla that advertises the superior quality of Ebla beer?No, he never heard of it.He doesn't even have a rudimentary understanding of quantum uncertainty.He thought DNA was nothing more than three capital letters that were often written together.

The very chatty, intelligent and curious Mr. "Buckley" knows next to nothing about modern science.He has an instinctive curiosity about the wonders of the universe, and he wants to understand science, but science has disappeared before it reaches him.Our cultural tenets, education system, and mass media have ruined him.Our society has given the green light to the spread of falsehood and confusion.Our society never taught him how to tell the difference between real science and cheap imitation.He knows nothing about the scientific method. There are currently hundreds of books describing Atlantis, a mysterious land that is said to have existed on the Atlantic Ocean 10,000 years ago (some say its address is set in Antarctica).The legend about Daxizhou can be traced back to Plato, and his description of this continent is also from the hearsay of early people.There are also recent books that authoritatively describe the technology, high moral standards and spiritual life of the highly developed Atlantis era, and the tragic story of the sinking of the continent full of residents under the waves.There is also a "new era" in Daxizhou, when there is a "legendary civilization of advanced science". And this kind of science is mainly the "science" of studying crystal balls.Among the three books on the same theme is a book called "The Crystal Ball Enlightenment" by Caterina Raphael - the book that is largely responsible for the crystal ball mania that has swept the United States - Atlantis The crystal ball can see through other people's thoughts and convey thoughts. It is a treasure house of knowledge to interpret ancient history and the construction structure and origin of the Egyptian pyramids.The book doesn't offer anything even close to evidence to justify its conclusions. (The resurgence of crystal ball divination fever follows a recent discovery by the real science of seismology. People say that the study found that the inner core of the earth may be composed of a huge, almost impurity crystal ball, while the actual The results of the study are metals.)

Some books—for example, Dorodi Vitaleno's Tales of Earth)—sympathetically explain that this small Mediterranean island was destroyed in a volcanic eruption, or that some ancient city was destroyed in a major catastrophe. It sank in the Gulf of Corinth after the earthquake.This statement, as far as we know, may be a legend. It is impossible for this kind of disaster to destroy a continent that has created incredible advanced technology and mysterious civilization. In public libraries, newsstand magazines, or prime-time TV shows, we almost never find any real evidence in studies of undersea continental spreading, studies of plate tectonics, and surveys of the ocean floor.And all the evidence shows unmistakably that no continent ever existed between Europe and America.

It is generally admitted that falsehoods are for the unbelieving.But it's much harder to look at things with a skeptical spirit.Skepticism is not easy to accept.An intelligent and curious person whose spiritual life is completely dependent on popular culture, in the information he receives like Atlantis, there is a hundred times a thousand times more likely to be nonsense without any criticism , rather than conscientious and prudent, impartial judgments. Perhaps Mr. Buckley should have known to be more skeptical of the kinds of rumors that mass culture flooded him with.But other than that, it's hard to say it was Mr Buckley's fault.He simply believed that the most widely circulated and most accessible information was correct.Through simple ignorance, he has been misled and confused by the social system.

Science fuels a growing curiosity to seek out the mysteries.But pseudoscience has the same effect.The development space given up by the few and backward popularization of science is quickly occupied by pseudoscience.If everyone can understand that a theory must be supported by sufficient evidence before it can be accepted, then there will be no place for pseudoscience.But because things like Gresham's Law are at work pervasively in popular culture, bad science crowds out good science. (Annotation: Sir Thomas Gresham, Sir Thomas Gresham, 1519-1579, British financier and philanthropist. Founded the Royal Stock Exchange and Gresham College in London. "Gresham's Law" is named after his surname, that is, "bad money "Expelling good money" means that when two currencies are in circulation at the same time, if one of them depreciates, its actual value is relatively lower than the value of the other currency, and the latter, that is, good money, will be generally collected and gradually removed from the currency. disappear in the market, and will eventually be expelled from the field of circulation. The former, that is, bad money, will become a disaster in the market.)

There are a lot of smart people in the world.Even gifted people have a passion for science.But the passion was not reciprocated.Surveys show that about 95% of Americans "do not have basic scientific literacy."This figure is equivalent to the proportion of illiterate black Americans before the Civil War.At that time, most blacks were slaves, and teaching black slaves to read and write would be severely punished.Of course, the measurement of basic cultural knowledge, whether it is the measurement of the level of language and writing or the level of scientific knowledge, always involves a certain degree of subjective judgment.However, no matter how you say it, it is very serious that 95% of people do not have basic scientific literacy.

Every generation worries about the ever-decreasing standard of education.One of the earliest short texts in human history dating back to the Sumerian era some 4,000 years ago laments the catastrophic degree of ignorance of the younger generation compared to the previous generation. The old and irascible Plato defined scientific literacy 2,400 years ago in Book VII of the Laws: I do not know to what extent scientific and mathematical ignorance contributed to the downfall of ancient Athens, but I do know that the consequences of low scientific literacy are far more dangerous than in any previous age.Persistent ignorance about global warming, ozone depletion, air pollution, toxic and radioactive waste, acid rain, topsoil erosion, loss of tropical forests, exponential population growth is dangerous and a sign of ignorance for every citizen.Job opportunities and wages are dependent on science and technology.If our country can't make the high-quality, low-priced products that our people want to buy, our industry will continue to shrink, and we will lose more of our prosperity to the rest of the world.Let's think carefully about how our society is structured: nuclear fission and fusion energy, supercomputers, information 'highways', abortion, radon, mass destruction of strategic weapons Strategic weapons of mass destruction"), drug use, government eavesdropping on citizens' lives, high-definition television, aircraft route and airport security, embryonic organ transplants, medical expenses, food additives, drugs for madness, depression or schizophrenia, Animal rights, superconducting technology, medicines for everyday health, sociopathic tendencies in contested inheritance rights, space stations. Mars exploration, finding cures for AIDS and cancer.

If we know so little about the above, how can we participate in the formulation of national policy, and even how can we make informed choices about our own lives?As I write this, Congress has disbanded its Office of Technology Assessment—the sole provider of science and technology to the Upper and Senate A professional organization for technical consultation.Over the years, this institution has been exemplary in its professionalism and honesty.Of the 535 members of Congress, less than 1 percent received a good science education during the 20th century.The last scientifically literate president may have been Thomas Jefferson. (Original note: Although some people think that the presidents with scientific knowledge include Theodore Roosevelt, Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter. Britain has such a prime minister, that is Margaret Thatcher. She studied chemistry in her early years, Trained under Nobel laureate Dorothy Hawking. She was instrumental in the effective and successful campaign to ban the ozone-destroying CFCs in the UK and globally.) So how do Americans make decisions about problems?How do they express their opinions and opinions to their spokespersons?Who is the de facto decision maker?What are their decisions based on? Hippocrates of Kos is the father of medicine. His "Hippocratic Oath" is still remembered 2,500 years later (a slightly modified version of which medical students everywhere now swear at graduation).However, his main achievement is to make medicine out of the fog of superstition and become a real science.In a famous passage of Hippocrates he wrote: "People think that epilepsy is caused by the gods, simply because they don't understand it. But if you take all things that you don't understand yourself as the arrangement of the gods, Then the things made by the gods will be endless and endless." We don't have to admit that we are ignorant of many fields, but we have always said that things like the universe are full of unspeakable mysteries.The Gap God takes responsibility for the many things we remain ignorant of.Medical knowledge has been accumulating and improving since the 4th century BC. We understand more and more things, whether it is the etiology or treatment of diseases, and we attribute problems to the role of gods less and less.Infant mortality and child mortality have decreased, life expectancy has increased, and medicine has improved the quality of life for billions of people on this planet. In the diagnosis of disease, Hippocrates introduced the basic method of science.He emphasized careful and careful observation. "Leave no disease a chance. Never miss a single detail. Combine and analyze conflicting observations. Be sure to have your own time." Before the thermometer was invented, he described many diseases in their own right. temperature curve.Doctors should be able to tell the approximate history and progression of each disease based solely on the patient's current symptoms, he suggested.He emphasized loyalty and honesty.He readily acknowledges the limitations of doctors' knowledge.When facing future generations, he disclosed without embarrassment to future generations that more than half of the people died of the diseases he treated.At that time, his treatment methods were limited, and the drugs available were mainly laxatives, emetics and narcotics.When performing surgical operations, only burning can be used to sterilize.From the classical period to the fall of ancient Rome, medicine has made great progress. While medicine flourished in the Islamic world, Europe entered a dark age.Much knowledge of anatomy and surgery was lost, people healed themselves with prayer and a great deal of miraculous self-healing, and secular doctors almost all disappeared.People used hymns, holy water, astrology and amulets extensively.Dissection of dead bodies was prohibited and illegal, so those who practiced medicine could not gain first-hand knowledge of the human body.Medical research stagnated. The scene at that time was exactly like the historian Edward Gibbon's description of the entire Eastern Roman Empire with Constantinople as its capital: Even the best pre-modern medical practices failed to save many lives.Queen Anne is the last of the Stuart monarchs of the British Empire.In the last 17 years of the 17th century, she conceived 18 times, but bore only five children.Only one of them survived to childhood, but died as a teenager before the Queen's coronation in 1702.There doesn't seem to be any evidence of any genetic disease.She was able to buy the best health care at the time. Diseases that have tragically claimed the lives of countless children and infants have been brought under control and cured by science, thanks to the discovery of the secrets of the microbial world; Sterilization of instruments; due to public health and sanitation measures; due to antibiotics, drugs, vaccines, revelation of the molecular structure of DNA, molecular biology, and new gene therapies.In the developed world at least, parents today have a better chance of seeing their children grow up than the heirs to the throne of the world's most powerful nation in the late 17th century.Smallpox has been eradicated worldwide, areas infested by malaria-carrying mosquitoes have shrunk dramatically, and children diagnosed with blood cancer are surviving progressively longer each year.Science has made it possible for the earth to support hundreds of times more people than it did thousands of years ago, and the living conditions will not be bad. We can pray for a cholera patient, or give him 500 mg of tetracycline every 12 hours (there is still a religion, Christian Science, that denies the germ theory. children die without giving them antibiotics).We can try almost ineffective psychoanalytic talk therapy to treat schizophrenic patients, or give them 300 to 500 mg of sedatives per day, scientific medical methods are hundreds of times more effective than official methods ( Even if other methods seem to help a little, we don't know exactly what they do: probably self-remission, even cholera and schizophrenia, without prayer or psychoanalysis or rehabilitation).Giving up science means giving up much more than air conditioners, CD players, hair dryers, and fast cars. In hunting and pre-agricultural times, human life expectancy was around 20 to 30 years.The same is true of human life expectancy in Western Europe during the late Roman period and the Middle Ages. By 1870, the human life expectancy had not yet reached 40 years. It reached 50 years old in 1915, 60 years old in 1930, and 70 years old in 1955. Today, people's life expectancy has reached 80 years old (slightly higher for women and slightly lower for men), and other countries are growing at the same rate as European life expectancy.What caused such amazing and unprecedented changes in human beings?Is it germ theory?Public health care measures, drugs and medical technology.The extension of lifespan may be the best and only standard to measure the quality of human material life (if you die, what happiness is there?).This is the most precious gift of science to mankind - nothing can match the gift of life. But microbes mutate.New diseases spread like wildfire, and there is a constant battle between microbial contagion and people fighting it back.We are going to win this battle not only by developing new drugs and treatments; but also by developing an ever-increasing understanding of the nature of life, which is basic research. If our world is to avoid the immediate consequences of global population growth and population reaching 10 or 12 billion by the end of the 21st century, we must invent safe and more efficient ways to increase food, and go hand in hand with this There are seed banks, water conservancy, pest control, transportation and refrigeration.Adequate and acceptable means of family planning are needed, and significant steps are needed to give women the same political status as men and improve the living standards of the poorest.How to solve these problems without science and technology? I know that the constant flow of science and technology into the world is not just an inexhaustible gift.Scientists not only developed atomic weapons, but they turned political leaders in front of them and told them that their country—whatever it was—must have one first.So they produced more than 60,000 pieces.During the Cold War, scientists in the United States, the former Soviet Union, China, and other countries were willing to expose their own citizens to nuclear radiation without knowing the dangers of nuclear weapons in order to prepare for nuclear war.Doctors in Tuskegee and Alabama tricked a group of veterans into thinking they were being treated for syphilis when they were irreparably irradiated.This group of cruel and vicious Nazi doctors is notorious.Our technology has produced thalidomide, freon, agent orange, nerve gas, caused air and water pollution, species extinction, and our industries are so powerful that they can destroy the earth's climate.About half of the scientists on our planet serve the military at least part-time.Although a small number of scientists were considered outsiders, they bravely criticized society's ills and gave early warning of possible technological disasters.However, many scientists are seen as mere whining opportunists, or people willing to work for corporate profits and to produce weapons of mass destruction, never thinking about the long-term consequences.The technological risks brought by scientific achievements, the absolute challenge to the generally accepted experience and knowledge, and the complexity of science are the reasons why people do not believe in science and avoid science.As a result, mad scientists can be found everywhere in our world—the maniacs in white coats on Saturday morning children's TV and everyone from the self-proclaimed originator Dr. Fosters himself to Dr. Frankenstein, from Dr. Dr. Strangelove to the Faustian spirit of sacrifice that is over-hyped in the popular culture of Zhuroji Park. But we cannot simply conclude that science has empowered misbehaving technologists or corrupt, power-obsessed politicians, and therefore discard science.Advances in medicine and agriculture have saved more lives than have been lost in all the wars in history combined. (Original note: At a recent meal, I asked the partygoers—of all ages, I estimate probably from 30 to 60—that what would be possible without antibiotics, pacemakers, and other flourishes of modern medicine? development, how many of them survived to this day. Only one raised their hand, and that was not me).Advances in transportation and communications, and the entertainment industry have transformed and connected the world as a whole.Poll after poll shows that, despite misgivings about science, people still rank scientific work as one of the most respected and trusted professions.The sword of science is double-edged. Its formidable power makes all people, including politicians, and of course scientists especially, have to shoulder a new responsibility, that is, from a global and time-transcending perspective, to deal with pay more attention to the long-term consequences of technology and try to avoid attachments to nationalism and chauvinism.Making mistakes is too expensive. Do you care much about truth? Does authenticity matter? ...where ignorance is bliss man becomes wise Thomas Gray wrote lines like this in one of his poems, but does it make sense?Edmund Way Tiller had a better understanding of the problem in his 1950 book, The Cycle of Seasons: As long as you feel right, you don't care whether a thing is true or not, just like you don't care how you got it when you have money.From a moral point of view, your morals are not too high, For example, if you find out that the government is corrupt and incompetent, you will find it frustrating.But is it better not to know this?Who benefits from ignorance?If we humans have a generational tendency to hate strangers, is self-isolation the only panacea?If we must think that the sun, moon, and stars rise and fall for us, and that the universe exists because of our existence, will science dampen our self-confidence? In On the Genealogy of Morals, Friedrich Nietzsche, like his predecessors and successors, argued that what the scientific revolution brought about was a "continuous development of human self-contempt."Nietzsche lamented the loss of "human dignity, the individual character of man, the irreplaceability of man in the laws of existence".I think it's far better to know the truth about the universe than to believe in an illusion and feel satisfied and right.Which attitude is more likely to drive our long-term survival?Which idea has more influence on our future?If in the process of development, our naive self-confidence suffers a little setback, does it mean all failure?Should we think of understanding the universe as a process of maturing and perfecting ourselves? found that the age of the universe is 8 billion to 15 billion years, not 6000 to 12000 years. So writes. But many "scientific creationists" not only believe it, but use their ongoing active and fruitful work to preach it in schools, museums, zoos, and textbooks. Why? Because of the addition of "creation " time increases the age of bishops and other characters in the Bible, therefore, this figure shows that the Bible is "correct".) It makes us admire the vastness and greatness of the universe.Acknowledging that we are made of atoms in complex configurations, rather than beings of the gods, would at least increase our respect for atoms.We discovered, as now seems quite possible, that our planet is one of billions in the Milky Way, and the Milky Way is one of billions of galaxies in the Universe.The entire universe expands majestically across the possible space.Our discovery that our ancestors were also ancestors of monkeys points to our common kinship with other creatures and has the potential to generate important, if sometimes regrettable, reflections on human nature. Obviously there is no going back.Like it or not, science is intimately connected to us.We'd better use science as best we can.When at last we see science for what it is, and fully appreciate its beauty and power, we shall find that we occupy a powerful position in the pursuit of our own happiness, both in spiritual and practical matters. status. But superstition and pseudoscience still thrive, bewildering the "Buckley" among us, offering easy answers, escaping skeptical scrutiny, and exploiting our awe at will to make our experience one. Money is worthless, making us conformist, mindless doers and prey to credulity.Yes, the world would be a much more interesting place if UFOs hid in the deep waters of Bermuda, devoured ships and planes, and dead men could manipulate our hands and write us letters.If a child could drop a telephone from its bracket just by thinking alone, if our dreams could predict the future more accurately than chance or knowledge of the world can explain, then our world would be much worse. Fascinating. These are some examples of pseudoscience.They claim to utilize scientific methods and discoveries, however, in reality they run counter to the very nature of science.This is because their usual conclusions are based on insufficient evidence, and they dismiss clues that lead to other possibilities.They play with ignorance.With the ignorance of newspapers, magazines, publishers, radio stations, television stations, film producers and other institutions and people (usually connivance of self-interest and disregard of social influence), pseudo-scientific ideas can be easily and widely spread.My meeting with Mr. "Buckley" made me think that meeting someone with a knowledge of more challenging, and even more glorious, scientific discoveries than someone who believes in pseudoscience and superstition is more important. It is a thousand times more difficult. It is much easier to make up pseudoscience than science.Because it distances us from authenticity - which is the result of comparisons beyond our control - it is always more ignored.The standard of general argument for inquiry into evidence is less clear-cut and less rigorous.Partly for the same reasons, it is much easier to spread pseudoscience to the general public than science.But that doesn't go far enough to explain the prevalence of pseudoscience. It is natural for people to try various systems of knowledge for help.If we seek this help too urgently, we are highly emotionally inclined to shed the heavy baggage of perceived skepticism.Pseudoscience adapts to people's strong emotional needs by saying that science has always failed to meet people's needs.What pseudoscience offers people is the fantasy of human power that we lack but long for (like superheroes in comic books today and legendary gods earlier).Pseudoscience claims that it satisfies spiritual cravings, cures disease, and promises that death is not the end of life.Pseudoscience has repeatedly convinced us that human beings are the center and have an important place in the universe.Pseudoscience has granted us the privilege of being inextricably bound to and at one with the universe (note: although it is hard for me to see a more profound connection than the astonishing discoveries in modern nuclear astrophysics: With the exception of hydrogen, all the atoms that make up each of us—the iron in our blood, the calcium in our bones, the carbon in our brains—were produced thousands of light-years away and billions of years ago of the giant red planet. I often say that we are made of interstellar matter).Sometimes pseudoscience becomes the product of a compromise between pseudoscience and new science, but neither side trusts it. The essence of some pseudoscience (as well as some religions, new age or old) is the substitution of wishes for real thought. As in folklore and children's tales, how satisfying it is to wish to fulfill our inner desires How tempting is the idea, especially when compared to the fact that we often have to rely on hard work and good luck to get our wishes! A magical fish or a genie in an oil lamp will grant our three wishes - whatever it is As long as we are not greedy. Who hasn't considered—just be on the safe side, in case we should burst in, and lightly rub an old bronze square oil lamp—what are we going to want? I still remember comic books and other books I read as a child, and there was a magician with a tall hat and a moustache waving a black cane.His name is Zatara, and he can do anything.How does he do it?Simple, he just has to turn around and give his order.So if he wanted $1 million, he would say, "SRALLOD NOILLIM A EM EVIG." That's enough for him to do.It's a bit like saying a prayer, but more powerful than a prayer. I spent a lot of time experimenting with this when I was eight years old, chanting "ESIR ENOTS" to those textured stones that seemed to have power, trying to make them float in the air, but never succeeded.I blame myself for my poor pronunciation. Some might say that there are as many people who don't understand real science as believe in pseudoscience, unless the spell fails.If you've never heard of science (let alone how it works), it's impossible to know that what you're embracing is pseudoscience.You'd simply think that's what people do.Religion is usually a hothouse for pseudoscience under the protection of the state, although there is no reason why religion must play such a role.In a sense, this is a phenomenon created by humans a long time ago.In some countries, almost everyone, including government leaders, believes in astrology and prophets.But this is not the result of simple indoctrination of religion, but the product of the cultural environment in which they live.In this culture, everyone is comfortable with these kinds of practices, and this culture is everywhere. Most of the historical cases I cite in this book took place in the United States because I know them best, not because American pseudoscience and mysticism are more prominent and compelling than in other countries in the world.However, Uli Geller, who has the ability to bend spoons and talk to aliens, is a god-man who manifested in Israel.As tensions mount between Algeria's secularists and Muslim fundamentalists) more and more people are cautiously turning to the country's 10,000-odd soothsayers and psychics (more than half of them People use the license issued by the state to operate).High-ranking French government officials, including the former French president, invested millions of dollars in a scam (Alf Aquet scandal) to find new ways to convert oil from air.In Germany, attention is being paid to cancer-causing "earth rays" that science can't detect, but which can only be detected by experienced soothsayers wielding a forked cane. "Psychic surgery" is all the rage in the Philippines, and ghosts are a national obsession in the UK.Since World War II, a large number of new supernatural religions have emerged in Japan.It is estimated that there are more than 100,000 fortune tellers active among the people in Japan, and the believers are mainly young women.Aum Shinrikyo, suspected of releasing sarin nerve gas in the Tokyo subway in March 1995, uses levitation, faith healing and extrasensory perception as its main teachings.Devotees pay top dollar to drink “holy water”—actually, their leader Asahara’s bath water.In Thailand, tablets made from pulverized scriptures are used to treat ailments. "Wizards" are being burned to death in South Africa today.Australian peacekeepers have rescued a woman tied to a tree in Haiti after she was accused of flying over roof ridges and sucking the blood of young children.Astrology is rampant in India and fortune tellers are popular in China. Perhaps the most successful example of pseudoscience in the world—there are many standards, and the existing judgment standard is religion—is the practice of Transcendental Meditation in India. doctrine.Its founder and spiritual leader, Maharishi Mahesh Yogi, can be seen on television giving long and tiresome sermons on the rules of hypnosis and so on.He sat on the seat of the yoga master, with white and gray-black hair loose, surrounded by garlands and tribute flowers, with an extraordinary demeanor.有一天在看电视选择频道的时候，我们恰巧看到了此人的尊容，四岁的儿子问我：“你知道他是谁？”“上帝。”世界各地的超在禅定法组织据估计有30亿的资产。只要你交上一定的费用，就能教你运用冥想穿越墙壁，隐身，飞翔。他们说，通过他们的协同冥想，降低了华盛顿特区的犯罪率，使前苏联解体，还创造了其他现世奇迹。但是他们对他们的说法却没有提供一点实际证据。超在禅定法组织出售假药，经营贸易公司，开设医疗门诊并创办“研究”大学，只是进入政界的计划没能成功。靠具有不可思议的神授能力的领导人，靠对社会的许诺，靠提供魔力换取金钱以及狂热的信仰，这是许多伪科学兜售所谓超自然力的典型手法。 任何放弃国家管理和科学教育的地方都有助于伪科学的泛滥。列昂·托洛斯基描述了希特勒接管国家之前德国伪科学的情况(这种描述同1933年苏联的情况几乎类似)： 俄国发生的事情令人深思。在沙皇时代，宗教迷信得到鼓励，但是，科学的和怀疑的思想——除了一些驯服的科学家——被野蛮地扼杀了。在共产主义时期，宗教和伪科学都从制度上受到压制——除了对国家意识形态的迷信。这种迷信被宣传为科学，但是，最不能进行自我批判的神秘的崇拜与过度缺乏这种理想一样，其结果都是破灭。批判的思维——只允许科学家在知识处于封闭分割的状态下有这种思维方式——被认为是危险的。在学校里不许传授，如果表达科学思维方式即受惩罚。这样做的结果是，在后共产主义时期，许多俄国人用怀疑的眼光看待科学。揭开盖子细看内幕，我们就会发现，随着幻想的破灭，其真正的本质是刻骨的种族仇恨也是其真实的后果之一。而现在，这个国家已经淹没在UFO、魔鬼、信念疗法、庸医、神水以及古老的迷信的汪洋大海之中。人的期望寿命明显降低，儿童死亡率增长，传染病肆虐，医疗标准几乎降到最低点，对预防医学的忽视，所有这一切都使在公众范围内迅速引发怀疑思潮的可能性达到临界状态。在我写作此书的时候，在杜马成员选举中获很高支持率的极端民族主义者弗拉基米尔·兹林诺夫斯基是一个安纳托利·卡斯皮诺夫斯基，即靠信念治病的术士，他可以使用通过电视机凝视你的方法，遥控治疗你从疝气到爱滋病等各种疾病，他面对着停止不动的时钟，可以使其重新走动。 类似的情况在中国也存在。在毛泽东逝世后向市场经济逐渐转变的过程中，UFO、心灵感应以及其他西方伪科学也蜂拥而至，与中国古老的祖先崇拜、占星术和算命——特别是抽签算命和用易经的六爻算命并行其道。政府报纸哀叹道：“封建迷信在我国农村有死灰复燃的趋势。”现在这种迷信活动主要在农村，城市不是主要受害区域。 具有“特异功能”的人都拥有大量的追随者。他们说，他们可以从身体中施放出气，即“宇宙能量场”，能够在2000公里以外改变化合物的分子结构，能够与外星人交流和治疗疾病。一些人在一个“气功大师”气功治疗下死于非命。1993年，这个气功大师被逮捕定罪。王洪成，一个业余化学家，宣称他本人可以合成一种液体添加剂，主要在水中添加一点这种液体；水就会变成汽油或者类似的燃料。有一段时间他的研究曾得到资助。但是，当他的发明被发现是一场骗局时，他被捕并被判刑。科学的盲信者们说他的不幸不是因为他是骗子，而是因为他不肯将他的“秘密配方”透露给政府(类似的传说在美国几十年来也有流传，只不过主角通常都是一些大型石油公司或是汽车公司)。亚洲犀牛正趋于灭绝的境地，因为据说它们的角被研磨成粉未后具有治疗阳瘘的功效，其销售范围覆盖整个东亚。 这些伪科学和迷信的蔓延引起了中国政府和中国共产党的警觉。1994年12月5日，中国政府和中国共产党发表了一项联合公开声明： 由此看来，美国的伪科学仅是其全球发展趋势中的一个组成部分。其产生的缘由、其危险性、其诊断和治疗方法等在世界各地大同小异。现在巫师们在传播范围广泛的商业电视节目中大肆兜售他们的巫术，自诩为娱乐节目表演者。他们拥有自己的频道，“特异功能之友联系网”。每年有大约100万人报名并将大师们传授的技能应用到他们的日常生活之中。大公司的执行董事会成员、金融分析家、律师和银行家在遇到问题的时候，总是听取占星术士、巫师和占卜者们的建议。一个俄亥俄州克利夫兰市的巫师说：“如果人们知道有多少人，特别是腰缠万贯的富翁和手握大权的权贵们都求助于巫术，他们定会惊讶得合不拢嘴。”王族成员历来是各种巫术骗子极易征服的对象。在古代中国和古罗马时代，占星术是只有帝王才能占有的特殊财产，任何民间俗人对这种功力无边的技巧的擅自使用均被认为是对其资产的侵犯。受到南加利福尼亚特别容易轻信别人的文化环境的影响的南希和罗纳德·里根无论在私人还是公共事务上历来依靠占星术士帮其决策，而广大选民对此一无所知。对我们的未来文明将会产生影响的各种决策中，有相当的了部分显然是由骗子们作出的。对于是否确有其事，世界各国已经纷纷扬扬，与这种情况相比，美国却鸦雀无声。 尽管某些伪科学似乎令人感到十分可笑，尽管我们对在伪科学的说教下编造出的骗局自信不会轻易相信，但是，我们清楚地知道，伪科学在我们身边一直不停地出现。超在掸定法(trascendental meditation)和奥姆真理教似乎吸引了许多受过良好教育的人士，包括一些拥有物理学和工程学领域高级学位的人。伪科学的说教并不是为傻瓜笨蛋们编造的，它主在产生其他效应。 另外，如果没有人对宗教的本质进行研究，也不去了解宗教的起源，那么，将会导致我们对宗教的无知。尽管在某些地区和某个方面伪科学与世界宗教之间似乎存在着巨大的鸿沟，但是从科学而言，其区别非常小。世界给我们带来了许多无法解决的问题。虽然世界也为我们提供了多种解决问题的方法，但是，从世界的范围来看，有些方法十分有限，有些方法具有普遍的作用。按照一般意义上的达尔文的自然选择学说，一些做法会盛行，而大多数做法会很快消失。但是，有时正如历史所展现的，最肮脏和毫无吸引力的少数做法可能却具有能够产生深刻影响的力量，这力量能够改变世界历史的进程。 不成熟的科学，伪科学和迷信(新时代的或旧时代的)演变为具有启示意义的令人尊敬的神秘宗教的连续过程并不是清晰可辨的。我在本书里将尽可能不使用一般宗教意义上的“膜拜”(cult)一词，因为经常说这个词的人会不喜欢我这样做，但是，我会尝试着将话题延伸至知识的领地——他们是否明白自己所说的事情到底是什么？事实上每个人都有自己的看法。 在本书的一定的篇幅里，我将对神学的过分行为进行批评，因为将伪科学与僵化的、教条主义的宗教区分开来非常困难。虽然如此，我首先承认，在过去的几千年中，宗教的思想和实践活动具有繁杂的多样性和复杂性。在上个世纪里，自由宗教和基督教团体得到了长足的发展。新教改革，犹太教变革，梵蒂冈教皇二世以及对圣经的所谓更高级的批评，这些都是宗教针对自身的过分行为所进行的批评(取得了不同程度的成功)。但是，如同许多科学家似乎不愿争论，甚至不愿公开讨论伪科学一样，许多主流宗教中的主要人物也不愿意接受极端保守主义者和原教旨主义者。如果这种趋势继续发展下去，最后整个领域都会被其占领。他们将因对手不到庭而胜诉。 一位宗教领袖写信给我，表达了他对希望宗教“有约束的完整”的心情： 我们己变得过于情感化……。一方面是过度虔诚和肤浅的心理，另一方面是傲慢自大和教条主义的不容异说的态度，在几乎还没有认识宗教的情况下，就扭曲了真正的宗教生活。有时，我几乎接近绝望的边缘，但我仍顽强地生活，并总是充满了希望……。诚实坦率的宗教比那些冒用批评者的名义、歪曲宗教、使宗教荒谬化的人更清楚其批评；诚实坦率的宗教为其自身的目的积极鼓励有益的怀疑精神……。宗教与科学建立起强大的联盟共同反对伪科学是有可能的。令人感到奇怪的是，我想，这个联盟在不远的将来也可以展开反对伪宗教的斗争。 伪科学与错误的科学是不同的。科学是在犯错误并一个一个地改正错误的过程中发展起来的。科学经常会作出错误的结论，但是这些结论都是非确定性的、实验性的结论。科学家们总是先设立假说，然后对这些假说进行证伪试验。假说是否成立完全取决于试验和观察的结果。科学在不断加深对事物真相的了解的征途上探索着，踉踉跄跄地蹒珊前行。当一种假说经试验证实为不可行的时候，假说的所有者的情感当然受到伤害，但是，正是这种反证被认为是科学事业的精髓所在。 而伪科学正好相反，其假说通常经过精心设计，使假说在能进行反证的试验面前无懈可击，甚至原则上也不能被认为是不成立的。伪科学的实践者总是处于防备和警惕的状态，他们反对任何怀疑者的检验。当伪科学的假说在科学家的检验面前失败时，他们就会设计出压制科学家意见的阴谋。 健康人开汽车的能力几乎可以说没有任何问题。除了孩提时期和老年时期以外，我们一般不会跌倒或摔跤。我们可以学会例如骑车、滑雪、跳绳和驾驶汽车等各种事情，而且可以终生保持这些能力。即使我们有十年不做这些事，一旦我们再做时仍然毫不费力。但是我们开车技能的精确性和依然如旧也许会使我们对自身其他方面的能力产生一种错误的感觉。我们的认知能力具有欺骗性。我们有时会看到事实上并不存在的东西。我们要经受视觉幻象的折磨。偶尔我们会产生幻觉。我们很容易犯错误。托马斯·吉洛维奇写的一本名为《感知我们所不知：日常生活中人类理性的易错性》的非常具有启发性的书里描述了人在认知数字方面所犯的系统性错误。拒绝接受自己不喜欢的证据，易受别人观点的影响。我们精于某些事情，但不可能通晓所有的事情。智慧产生于我们对自身局限性的了解。“因为人易迷惑”，威廉·莎士比亚这样教导我们，这正是我们需要严谨的充满怀疑精神的科学的精确性的原因。 可能科学和伪科学之间的最大差别在于：与伪科学(或“永无错误的”启示)相比，科学在人类的不完美性和易犯错误的本性的认识上要深刻得多。如果我们坚决拒绝承认我们犯错误是必然的，那么，我们就会信心十足地等待错误——甚至是严重的错误，重大的过错一一永远与我们形影相随的错误。但是，如果我们具有一点自我评价的勇气，无论错误会给我们造成多么令人遗憾的思考，我们取得胜利的机会必定会极大地增加。 如果我们向广大公众只讲解科学的发现和成果——无论这些成就具有多么大的使用价值，甚至非常鼓舞人心——而不向公众讲解严格的科学方法，普通人怎么能够分清什么是科学，什么是伪科学呢？然而，科学和伪科学都是以无证据的结论的方式表现在人们面前的。在中国和俄罗斯，科学曾有过很简单的表达方式——具有权威性的科学就是权威人士所讲的科学。什么是科学，什么是伪科学只能靠你自己来判断，但是当政治发生变化，对自由思想的禁铜有所放松的时候，许多可靠的和有号召力的主张一特别是那些我们以前想知道，但是现在才了解的学说一一赢得了普遍的拥护。但是，这时所有的观点都变成权威性的观点的可能性就不大可能出现了。对从事科学普及的人来说，最大的挑战是向公众讲清楚科学重大发现。误解和科学的实践者偶尔顽固地拒绝改变研究方向的真实的和曲折的发展历史。许多，可能是大多数科学教科书所描述的都是春风得意的科学家所走过的轻松的道路。用引人人胜的方式表述科学家在几个世纪中对自然所进行的耐心和共同的质问所积累起来的智慧，比详细教授杂乱无章的积累这种智慧的方法要容易得多。科学方法似乎毫无趣味。很难理解，但它比科学上的发现要重要得多。