Chapter 49 Dervish's Coarse Clothes

Dervish's Coarse Clothes As Brian Arthur drove back in the last rays of the setting sun, the Heraclitus chief of Santa Fe was preparing to resign and retire.Despite the undeniable success of the Economics Research Program, and despite the intellectual frenzy that Santa Fe has created on the edge of chaos, artificial life, and so on, George Cowan is well aware that the Santa Fe Institute's permanent funding is still is equal to zero.It's been six years, and he's tired of begging people for operating funds and worrying about whether the economics program will become an 800-pound gorilla controlling the institute.Speaking of the 800-pound gorilla, he's tired of the constant battle of wills with Mari Gell-Mann over what the Santa Fe Institute means, including the complexity revolution's impact on creating a sustainable future for humanity. The meaning of such questions is debated.Cowan was exhausted.He has created the Santa Fe Institute and put it into operation. He hopes to devote his life to the research work of the Institute, and to the research of this strange and emerging complexity science.So, at the Santa Fe Institute's annual board meeting in March 1990, Cowan submitted his official resignation report.He told the board members that he was giving them another year, and they had a year to choose a replacement for him, while he spent the year trying to find a steady source of funding for the institute.But that's all.

He said: "I felt it was time for a new person to govern the Institute. The annual board meeting was just a week after my seventieth birthday. I said to myself at a very young age that by seventy When I was young I didn't think I couldn't do anything without me, I've seen too many old guys in my way. There are a lot of people with their own minds, and it's time for them to show their skills." Regulars at the Santa Fe Institute were not surprised by Cowan's resignation report.He's been looking very haggard and tired lately, and everyone's worried about his health.His temper has also become capricious, often smiling one day, and becoming angry and sad the next day.He often told people that he wanted to apply for resignation when he was the director of the institute in 1984. The reason why he has been working until now is to pave the way for younger successors.He had said more than once that he was going to resign, but was persuaded to stay.At the 1989 board meeting, he signaled that it was time for him to step down and appointed a committee to find his successor.Now the committee has to step up and get real.

But that's the problem facing this committee and all who are looking for a successor.Cowan was the first person to conceive the establishment of this institute.He was the first to foresee the science of complexity before anyone else knew what to call it.He was most responsible for creating the Santa Fe Institute as a home where intellectual enthusiasm was infused in all its members.As Longton said, just seeing Cowan sitting in the abbot's office, for some reason, makes you feel that everything is going well.Nobody knows anyone else who can do this. So, if Cowan steps down, who is the right person to take over?

Cowan himself was ignorant of this.But at least for now he doesn't have time to worry about it.The pressure will only increase over the next 12 months. "Before I sensibly step down from the position of director, I hope to obtain the guarantee of the fund for the next three years, so that my successor will not be poor as soon as he takes office." This means that at present, his most urgent , The most important job is to submit endless application funding reports to the National Science Council and the Department of Energy.A total of US$2 million in funds provided by the two agencies for the first three years was cashed out in 1987, and an application for renewal is now required.If you can't get a renewal, being the director of this research institute is almost dead in name only.

But for Cowan, the reports for grant applications include far more than the grants themselves.If it was only about money, his life would be much easier.The Santa Fe Institute could have done what many university science and engineering departments have done and insisted that researchers apply for funding from the various institutions that provide research funding.It wouldn't be too difficult, the Santa Fe Institute is full of bright and experienced academics who have raised money from foundations all their lives.But Cowan knew that by doing so, the Santa Fe Institute would end up losing its greatest identity.

"The crucial issue for me was to create a new kind of science community," Cowan said. "One that was more or less universal, covering everything from the hard sciences to math and social science. We began by inviting the best minds, and these shared tastes worked wonders. We envisioned bringing together the best minds from different disciplines, so that there was inevitably a great fusion of knowledge. I think The scientific community we have created is unsurpassed in breadth and quality of knowledge, and I have never seen such an outstanding group of people gathered in any scientific institution in history. I count on them and strive to enable them to produce research results."

"But if our funding sources are patchwork, our strength will be fragmented immediately." But in fact, each funding agency generally provides researchers with a specific research topic in a recognized scientific field. Individuals provide research funding.This approach runs counter to Santa Fe's approach. "You see, when someone applies for a research grant, he spends a lot of time applying, and then he gets fifty thousand or one hundred thousand dollars in grants, and he becomes the boss who owns the grants, and if you Find a way to control his autonomy, and you are committing a great crime." So despite your best wishes, and even despite everyone's best efforts to maintain a loose academic attitude, the interests of the community and the interests of research Atmosphere, emphasis on interdisciplinary, but everyone will inevitably spend more and more time on their own research topics, and pay less and less attention to the communication between each other. "Without central coordination, you're back to the old academic ways."

Of course, in practice, the Santa Fe Institute will never let go of fighting for special research funding.With its current state of funding, the institute cannot look beyond reality and fully adhere to its principles.Indeed, Citibank's funding for economics research topics is the largest example of applying for research funds for special topics.To reverse this centrifugal force, Cowan desperately needs access to what he calls an "umbrella grant": money that will fund anyone with a good idea of ​​complexity, whether it's in a well-defined, conventional discipline among.For example, it could be used to fund the research ideas of Langton, Holland or Kaufmann.“If you want to keep the unity of complexity research intact, you have to create a community where that unity emerges from the bottom up, rather than you telling people what to do,” Cowan said. Umbrella funding is An essential condition for the realization of this goal."

That's why he first wanted to apply to the National Science Council and the Department of Energy for funding.Unless an angel descends and brings them a large sum of money, these two institutions are the only places where there is any hope of providing umbrella funding that will keep Santa Fe's research from falling into disarray.That's why Cowan felt it was critical to secure renewal of funding from both institutions.If this umbrella is closed, the exciting creative spirit pioneered by Arthur, Kaufman, Holland and others will soon be spoiled. So Cowin and his executive vice president, Mike Simon, and the rest of the science committee spent a lot of time that spring writing the grant proposal.They all knew that the report had to be very convincing. When they applied for their first grant in 1987, convincing the two agencies to fund Santa Fe was daunting.At that time, the Santa Fe Institute tried their best to prove that they had gathered first-class talents and had a very good idea.Applying for the second grant is far more difficult than applying for the first grant.Their goal is to increase the combined NSF and DOE funding tenfold, from $2 million over three years to $20 million over five years.Moreover, their funding application report was not submitted at the right time. The federal scientific research budget is currently being greatly tightened, and researchers in conventional disciplines are competing more fiercely than ever to obtain scientific research funding.They've heard the medieval administrators of the National Science Council and the Department of Energy muttering that why should we invest in risky interdisciplinary research in Santa Fe when serious scientific research projects are severely underfunded The project goes up.

Cowan, Simon, and the rest of the institute obviously couldn't be sure they would win.They had to show enough evidence that their research had come to fruition over the past three years.Over the next five years, they have the ability to make their research worth the $20 million investment.This is delicate, of course, because they can't quite claim that they've solved the whole mystery of complexity, they've only scratched the surface.But what they could, and did claim, was to create within three years a functioning institute dedicated to the study of complexity.They wrote that, as promised in their 1987 grant proposal, the Santa Fe Institute "has developed an integrated research program, an innovative management system, and Top researchers, starting to form support for a large overall demand for complexity research."

Cowwin and Simon can provide strong factual support for what they claim on the funding application report.They point out that over a three-year period, the Santa Fe Institute sponsored thirty-six interdisciplinary workshops involving more than seven hundred people and hosted more than a hundred visiting fellows who published in scientific journals. More than sixty papers on complexity science.The Institute also hosts the annual Complex Systems Summer School, a one-month course for more than 150 scientists at one time, teaching mathematics and computer techniques applied to complexity science research.The Institute also publishes a series of papers under the name "Santa Fe Institute Complexity Science".At the time of writing this funding request, the Institute is in talks with several university presses to publish research journals on complexity science. Referring to complexity research itself, Cowwin and Simon write, "it is particularly noteworthy. The Institute's support for its own research programs has continued unabated. Its support is no longer in the form of untested endeavors. The Santa Fe study The Institute supports the research of many outstanding talents, including support for talented graduate students and Nobel Prize winners, as well as support for the research of senior corporate executives and prominent government officials. The research team of Santa Fe, the interaction between its projects The support and network formed include the widest range of disciplines and the most significant research results to date." They can also back up their funding applications with a long list of specific research findings.In fact, much of the grant proposal report is an exposition of research findings from projects ranging from artificial life to economics.Cowwin and Simon's evaluation of economics research is: "It is the most mature research project of the Santa Fe Institute, and it can be used as a model for other research institutes to emulate in terms of substance and organizational form." Of course, just as happy families usually bring their best side to the outside world, Santa Fe also concealed some inside information in his grant application report, such as the aspects of the economics project that gave him a lot of headaches. Part of it is still the old problem of funding: Cowan, when he is not very philanthropic, feels that economists want the institute to raise all the money for them to enjoy.Even in his less irascible moments, he laments that the economics program has been far more academically successful than financially successful.Citibank is satisfied with the progress of the economics project and has renewed its annual funding of US$125,000 for the project, but this is not enough to cover the entire cost of the project.Arthur's efforts to secure funding from larger foundations such as Russell, Sergey, Sloan, and Myron all failed.The cruel reality lies there: the research funding of mainstream economics is seriously insufficient, let alone funding such a risky project as Santa Fe. Cowan said: "In the United States, there is very little funding for economics research. Although economists are well paid, their basic research is not funded. Usually companies fund economists to do research. Very practical research, and the National Science Foundation and other government agencies have given very little funding to economics. This is because economics is a social science, and the government has never given a lot of money to the social sciences. It's a bit' Planning' smells of supply, and planning is not a good word." As a result, many economists looked to the Santa Fe Institute as if it were another funding agency, but the economists themselves could not argue for it. Institutes provide too much financial support.So the institute had to use a substantial portion of federal funding to make up for the shortfall in Citibank's contribution to the economics program.And the money was originally intended to be used by Cowan for other research projects. But the biggest problem was that Arthur was leaving at the end of 1989, and Ken Arrow was already looking for a first-rate economist to replace him as program director."We're running from year to year, and we can't budget for the next year," Cowan said. "But if you want to attract big names who can do anything anywhere, you have to make a commitment to them. , with sufficient funds to secure their research. Although the future of the Santa Fe Institute was uncertain from the beginning of the economics program, after a year or two, this impression seems to be less obvious. The institute began to look less The real situation is much more stable. The people we want to invite are starting to think of us as Stanford or Yale. Also, since there is no tenure track here, we either let them down or pretend they're right , try to get research funding for them. It’s a whole different kind of pressure. The nature of the game changes.” But what really worries Cowan is still not the problem of funding itself, but the vulnerability of the Santa Fe community.The enormous success of the economics program has put the Santa Fe Institute in danger of becoming a full-time economics institute, which is contrary to the original intention of the Santa Fe Institute.Cowan said: "It is contradictory to create an institute with no department boundaries and then only engage in research in one discipline. It would be better to create a department in the first place. We must have a beginning, but at the same time We made sure from the beginning that the economics program wasn’t the only thing that excited the Institute.” Not surprisingly, Cowyn and Arthur have had several disputes over the funding of the economics program and the pace of its research."On the science committee, Brian (Arthur) took the common ground among economists that the economics program has achieved a lot, so as long as the economics program is still going well, the Institute Support for an economics program should not be diverted for any other research program. The Institute should not give up betting on a winning horse. Now Brian is a keen advocate of this view. Of course it is very good ...but the whole philosophy of this institute is that systems of complexity have many facets, including neurobehavior, human behavior, social behavior, and many others that economics doesn't specifically deal with. So I'm arguing for at least one that can be Other research projects rivaling the economics program in size. We need to expand our academic program and spread our bets. Although there is a lot of discussion about this, the basic idea is very much supported by the science committee." In Cowan's mind, a rival to the economics research program is "adaptive computing": that is, the research to develop a set of mathematical and computer tools that can be applied to all aspects of the complexity sciences, including economics."If we have a common conceptual framework, we should have a common analytical framework," he said, adding that starting such a research project is actually a way of sorting out what we have achieved so far , and then provide more extensive support for various aspects of complexity research.Holland's genetic algorithm and classifier system have long permeated research at the institute and may become a pillar concept in adaptive computing.But Kaufman's Boolean networks and autocatalytic groups, Langton's artificial life, Arthur and the various glass house economic models built by economists also provide similar concepts.A vigorous cross-fertilization is underway.In his paper "The Rosetta Stone of Relevanceism," Farmer argues that neural networks, immune systems, autocatalytic groups, and classifier systems all basically share common underlying themes.Indeed, when Mike Simon and Cowan were sitting in Cowan's office one day in 1989, thinking of a name that would cover all these concepts, Simon coined the term "adaptive computing."The term is not as loaded with knowledge as "artificial life". So, at some level, the Adaptive Computing Project can give formal recognition and coordination to this research enthusiasm, not to mention better support for the graduate students, visiting scientists and workshops that work on it, says Cowan. a lot of research funding.But in the long run, he also hopes that this research project will bring the precision and rigor to the research of economists, sociologists, political scientists, and even historians, just as Newton brought physics when he invented the differential. same impact. "We're still waiting, maybe another ten or fifteen years, but what we're waiting for is a really rich, vibrant set of generalized algorithms that can be used as a method for complex adaptive The interaction between authors and authors can be quantified. The current way of debate in the social sciences is that both sides hold different opinions on the issue, and both emphasize that their views are the most important. 'My opinion is more important than yours because I Fiscal policy can be shown to be more important than financial policy.' etc. But you can't really prove that, because words are ultimately just words, and computer simulations can provide a well-defined parameter and variable, so that people at least can target a common topic. Computers allow you to deal with all kinds of variables. So if a computer simulation includes fiscal policy and financial policy, then you can state why one policy outcome is more important than the other, and the outcome may be It’s right. Or maybe it’s wrong. But it’s a more formal argument. Even if the computer model is wrong, they can make good use of the model to formalize the argument.” But whether or not the computer simulations are so successful, the development of the Adaptive Computing Research Program will undoubtedly have a welcome side effect: It will give the Cowin Institute an excuse to yank Holland out of the University of Michigan to become the institute's chief executive officer. Full-time researcher.Holland is not only a natural and consistent candidate for the project director of this project, but also he is a person with energy and ideas, and everyone likes to have him in the institute. Cowwin and Simon spent ten pages describing the adaptive computing project in their funding proposal, much of it written by Holland himself.Then, on July 13, 1990, they sent the entire 150-page funding application report to Washington.After that, all they can do is wait, pray for their luck, and hope that the reviewers of the report will be merciful. There is, however, some irony in Santa Fe's hiring of Holland.When the Santa Fe Institute was first established, Cowwin and his fellow founders were eager to hire long-term researchers and make the Institute a full-scale research institution like Rockefeller University in New York.But the fiscal realities stand in the way of that.By 1990, Cowan, Simon, and a considerable number of Santa Fe regulars were beginning to feel that this limitation had at least one major benefit: at least the Institute would be in a much better financial position by not hiring permanent fellows. "The benefit is that we have a more flexible system than hiring permanent researchers," Cowan said.After all, he realizes, once you hire a group of full-time researchers, your research projects are pretty limited to a specific area, unless those people leave or die.So, why not let the research institute always play the role of catalyst and matchmaker?This method has worked very well so far.Constantly replace visiting scholars, let them live in Santa Fe for a period of time, participate in the great integration of knowledge, and then return to their own universities.Not only would they maintain a lasting bond with the Santa Fe Institute, but they would simultaneously sow the seeds of revolution among their colleagues. While there is truth in that statement, Holland is an exception that everyone would very much like to have.And best of all, a grant has been secured specifically to support his research.Robert Maxwell of London, a former Czech rebel and self-made newspaper billionaire, had developed a strange passion for complexity science and offered to fund it. Of course, in retrospect, Maxwell mysteriously drowned in late 1990, and his newspaper empire collapsed under massive debt.But at the time, he looked like a godmother from a fairy tale.The Santa Fe Institute's relationship with Maxwell began a year ago.At that time, Mari Gell-Mann happened to meet Maxwell's daughter, Christian Maxwell.Christian arranged for Gell-Mann to have lunch with her father in May 1989.When Gell-Mann reported to Cowan that Maxwell Sr. was very interested in the Institute's research, the people at the Santa Fe Institute began to apply for funding from him. No one knew what Maxwell was doing. How much property is there, but there must be several billion. In February 1990, after many phone calls and faxes, I finally received a fax from London.The fax made two points: First, Maxwell said he wanted to start a collaboration with the Santa Fe Institute on the condition that it provide $100,000 a year in grants for adaptive complex systems research.Second, he liked the idea of ​​the Institute to create a journal of complexity, a new science, and expressed interest in publishing it with his affiliated Pergamon Press. Hope to start working with the Institute! ?Cowen and Simon mulled over these words for a while, and finally Cowen decided to take the risk. "I would like to ask him for more money." In his reply, he sent a working draft of the institute's journal committee, laying out their ideas for the journal, and proposed that the publisher establish a " Robert Maxwell Professorship, with an annual grant of $300,000.Cowan explained that this money is not just the annual salary of Maxwell's professorship, but also includes the cost of hiring postdoctoral and graduate students, travel expenses, secretarial fees and other expenses. There was some delay in London's reply.As Cowin and Simon had long heard, Maxwell said nothing.All they could do was keep reminding him to answer it by fax, while also keeping in touch with Gell-Mann, Christian, and her brothers by letter and phone.Maxwell's reply, "Agreed in principle," was finally passed on just before the institute's Board of Directors meeting in March 1990.The Board of Trustees has formally decided to offer Holland a five-year Maxwell Professorship. At Michigan, Holland took advantage of the opportunity the Santa Fe Institute gave him to bargain with the school.At the time, he was still bitter about the merging of the Computer and Communication Sciences Department into the Engineering School. He hated the short-sighted, application-oriented prevailing ethos, so he had already started to have his feet in two boats.Years earlier, UCLA had hinted at giving him tenure, so Holland played a trick he never knew.He immediately went to the dean of the university and proposed: "If I want to continue working in this university, at least I must be allowed to work part-time in the psychology department." The highly ranked psychology department has extensive exposure.Provost Edie Goldenberg, sympathetic to his situation and eager to keep him at Michigan, made arrangements for him. Now he's looking for Golden Bogo again with an invitation from Santa Fe.He said to her: "From a research point of view, this Maxwell professorship is very ideal for me. I would like to accept this invitation, unless I can spend more time at the University of Michigan. Research." Goldenberg once again obeyed him.She found him funding, made arrangements, and helped him come up with alternatives.Holland will be employed by the Department of Psychology as a full-time professor, while reducing his teaching tasks and increasing his research time.In return, he will forge a long-lasting relationship between the Santa Fe Institute and the University of Michigan, whereby U-M professors, postdocs, and graduate students will travel frequently to Santa Fe to conduct research, and the two academic institutions will often hold joint academic seminar.It would be tantamount to turning Ann Arbor, on ice, into an outpost of the Santa Fe Institute. The partnership was formalized in the summer of 1990.To celebrate the founding of the Santa Fe outpost, Holland organized a two-week workshop in the fall of 1990, beginning with a special discussion led by Arthur, Stanford's Mark Feldman, and Gell-Mann.It was a great pleasure for Holland and all."Headmaster James Duderstadt was there for the inaugural seminar and attended the seminar from start to finish! He even took notes. The seminar was very interesting and everyone had a great time," Holland said. Since then until now.Except for occasional trips to Santa Fe or attending various academic conferences, Holland spent most of his time in his study at home with his Apple II.His home was a unique hilltop mansion overlooking the billowing hills west of Ann Arbor.Lately he's even started talking seriously about retiring from college so he can spend more time doing research.He said: "Life is finite. I am old (sixty-three years old), and I still have many new ideas in the file that I have not had time to study..." At Santa Fe, Cowan was sorry to hear that Holland had rejected the offer for the professorship.But he had to admit that he was really impressed by Holland Desch's ingenuity to get himself out of a bad situation.What made him even more amazed was that Holland used his work as a bet to maintain the relationship between Santa Fe and the University of Michigan, which was also very pleasing to the Santa Fe Institute, and this matter would not have been realized without Holland . But at the same time, Cowan had to deal with Maxwell. In the early summer of 1990, he and Simon kept sending faxes to London, very politely reminding Maxwell not to forget to send the money. In August 1990, a personal check for $150,000 from Maxwell, the first grant for the first year, finally arrived.Only then did they tell Maxwell that Holland was not accepting the invitation.Maxwell replied, "Do you think it would work for me to go to the University of Michigan and convince him?" Well, no need.Santa Fe was able to make a compromise: For the semester beginning in the fall of 1990, Holland and Gell-Mann shared the funding.Specifically, Holland is responsible for the fundamental work of this new adaptive computing project.By 1991, they were replaced by Stuart Kaufman and David Paines.Meanwhile, the Santa Fe Institute will use its flexibility to invite the best young minds like Seth Lloyd, James Crutchfield and Alfred Alfred Hubler. Maxwell faxed back that he was happy to accept the offer.At the same time, all agreed to publish a new complexity science journal through Maxwell's Pugmond Press.Cowwin and Maxwell had a long talk on the specific matters through overseas phone calls.But before long Maxwell suddenly decided to sell Pugmont to free up funds for other projects. At the end of February 1991, under the urging of continuous transoceanic faxes, Maxwell even remembered to remit the second grant of the year, a total of 150,000 US dollars. Throughout the summer and fall of 1990, whenever the subject of Cowan's successor came up, Marie Gell-Mann would sigh and say in a tone of compulsion, "I guess I'll have to take over." Understandably, Gell-Mann certainly didn't want to be president of the Santa Fe Institute.He hates heavy administrative work.All his life he had turned down such jobs.For example, he turned down an offer to chair Caltech's physics, mathematics, and astronomy departments.But the Santa Fe Institute and complexity science were so important, who knew better what needed to be done?Who else has articulated the science of complexity more clearly than he?Who else has greater honor and wider social connections to give the Santa Fe Institute the necessary influence? Indeed, who else could do all this?The Institute's search for the director's successor committee was immediately paralyzed.Nobody's stupid: Gell-Mann wants to be president of the Santa Fe Institute.The question is whether they dare to let him be the director.Some feel they can seriously consider this possibility.After all, they said, Gell-Mann was a figure in the history of science, a Nobel laureate.If he wants to be the director of this institute, why not let him try? Others who knew him better were horrified at the thought of Marie Gell-Mann as director.No one doubted his intelligence, his energy and his ability to raise funds.He always raised various interesting and worthy scientific questions endlessly.He really has a knack for bringing together top people from all walks of life in one place.Without him, the Santa Fe Institute would not be what it is today.But let him be the director?Immediately they thought of him with geological formations of unreviewed papers on his desk, of him never returning calls, and running out to save the rainforest.Worse, they felt that if he became director, the Santa Fe Institute would become "The Gell-Mann Institute." A physicist who knew Gell-Mann said, "Mary is the most intellectual about life." His conversations and everything else in his life was driven by his intellectual concern.He was very concerned about the intellectual issues of the Santa Fe Institute, and he was always aiming in the direction he wanted to go.He thinks deeply about this and wants to make sure everyone is working in that direction. "There are advantages and disadvantages to what he does. I think the advantage is that the Santa Fe Institute needs a strong intellectual like Marui to push our research in a productive direction. But the disadvantage is that as long as With Marui around, it's hard for others to chime in. Once he's analyzed a problem, he thinks it's been thoroughly analyzed. If someone disagrees with him, he feels like he's not being heard If he is not ignoring other people's opinions, then he is reiterating his own opinions more clearly. Therefore, he always suppresses other people's opinions with his intellectual ability and personality strength. A There is a clear danger that the Santa Fe Institute will become a vehicle for Gell-Mann's personal passion." This is, of course, the danger that Cowan sees.To be fair, Cowan also heard Gell-Mann talk about the institute's need for diversity and the need to accommodate multiple viewpoints.But he still believes that if Gell-Mann became director, he would destroy the institute's eclectic academic atmosphere and diversity.Although he didn't mean to, all true thinkers would be wise to go."Mary always thought his point of view was the only possible point of view, always trying to change someone else's point of view," Cowan said. Cowan has his reasons for thinking so.He's been fighting Gell-Mann since the institute's inception.Of course, he tried his best not to let the argument between them fester.Cowan felt deeply how much he and the Institute needed Gell-Mann, and he often felt compelled to make concessions to Gell-Mann. Many wondered if he did so because he was intimidated by Gell-Mann's Nobel Prize, but There were times when Cowan felt overwhelmed. 比如，他们对什么是研究所最合适的研究课题一直争论不休。盖尔曼说：“我认为桑塔费研究所的主题应该是对简单性与复杂性的研究。对我来说，宇宙的简单规律及其概率特点、信息的本质和量子力学，这些是我们所研究的主题的整个基础。在桑塔费，我们已经对信息和宇宙做过两次讨论了。在早期，我们还成功地举办了一个研讨会，用对数学、宇宙学和粒子物理的总观看法来探讨超弦。但研究所反对研究超弦，对此施加了很大的压力，我们从此再也没有研究过超弦。研究所所长乔治· 考温非常不喜欢研究这些。我不知道这是为什么。” 其实，考温并不是讨厌研究超弦。所谓超弦理论，即假设的“万有理论”，旨在把所有基本粒子描述成微乎其微的、纯能量的、剧烈振动的弦，是非常精彩的理论。只是有许多地方、许多人都在研究超弦，人们在那些地方可以尽情地研究超弦、夸克和宇宙。他认为桑塔费研究所没有时间和资金来做这种重复性的研究。（考温并不是唯一这么认为的人。科学委员会的大多数人对超弦研讨会的看法都是：“再也不举办超弦研讨会了。”）但对考温来说，真正令他恼火的是，盖尔曼的“简单性” 听起来像是以伪装出现的还原论。他发现盖尔曼显然喜欢拒绝任何他个人不感兴趣的研究，比如像化学或固态物理学。（他当着菲尔·安德森的面把固态物理学贬为“污态物理学”，显然是故意要激怒安德森。）考温说，也许盖尔曼这么做只是为了好玩，但其中尚未完全揭开面纱的内容是：盖尔曼认为，桑塔费研究所对集体行为的研究是实用主义的和混乱不堪的，因而是非“知识性”的。 对局外人来说，考温对盖尔曼的简单性概念的怒气听上去有点像中世纪时对神学要旨的神秘争辩。但考温和盖尔曼却为此争论得怒不可遏，这种争论经常会引向别的话题，也会导致其中一人猛然摔下电话。考温尤为清楚地记得1987年的一次争论。那是一次私人聚会，当时有五、六个桑塔费的主要人物围坐在餐桌旁，讨论应该如何形容桑塔费研究所。考温说：“每当我们说我们感兴趣的是复杂性科学，马瑞就会补充说，'还有构成复杂性科学的基本原则。'他指的是夸克。他话中的含义是，社会组织是由众多的夸克组成的。你可以通过对夸克的研究，理解夸克的各种聚合物。” 考温说：“我把这称为理论物理的宗教，这是对对称性和全面还原论的信仰。我不认为我们有任何理由来遵从这个观点。所以我就说，我们不打算研究夸克。”考温认为，涌现的、复杂的系统代表了某种新的、基本的概念，我们需要用这种概念来了解物质超越其基本作用力法则的宏观行为。考温的观点得到了在场的大多数人的支持。 “马瑞直截了当地说，他绝不认同。嗯，这是我第一次认识到，马瑞想强调他自己想怎么做，然后希望其他人能按照他的思路去做。我觉得他这也太自我中心了，所以大发脾气。” 确实，当时考温在盛怒之下，拿起桌子上的文件说：“我不干了。”就走出了房间、奈普和卡罗瑟斯赶紧追出门去，大叫：“乔治，回来！” 他最终还是回来了。但那次事件以后，盖尔曼几乎再不提“简单性”这个词了。 但考温对简单性的恼怒，与他对研究所的“全球持续性”项目的恼怒比起来，就算不得什么了。起初，这是考温的项目，这个项目稍稍反映了他对人类在地球上的生存前景的深切关注。但他当时并没有把这个项目称为“持续性”。他最初的概念是“全球稳定”或“全球安全”。1988年12月，他以“全球安全”为名组办了首届小型研讨会。考温说：“起初研究讨论的像是某种国家安全，但很快讨论的内容就大大扩展了，扩展到今后一百年中我们怎么避免'A级'灾难，生存下去？即某种一代人都解决不了的难题。”在混沌边缘的术语中，避免这样的灾难意味着要寻找到某种阻止巨大的毁灭性崩落的方法。“起初，我把核战争列为最大的A级灾难，把第二次世界大战列为次等的B级灾难。但到我们召开这次研讨会时，美苏两国恢复了友好关系，这类的核战争问题在我的灾难排名上落到了第五位。人口爆炸问题，即厄里奇式的灾难，继之上升到首位，排名第二的是可能的环境灾难，比如像温室升温效应。对此我个人倒并不认为是A级灾难，但其他人认为是。” 对此的讨论有一阵子是低调的，主要是因为考温无论有没有空都坚持自己组织小型会议。但后来盖尔曼也开始对此发生了兴趣。用全球性的、整合的观点来看待人类的长久生存性这个想法正好和他产生了强烈的共鸣。毕竟，盖尔曼的科学入门就是起自他五岁时在中央公园的大自然中的那次散步。他最为关注的是对全球环境的保护，特别是雨林生物的多样化。所以他就介入了这个项目，非要把考温的全球稳定研究项目推向他希望的方向。到1990年的时候，他已经成功地修改了这个研究项目的议题，把它变成了他的项目。 他主持这个项目比考温要激进得多了。盖尔曼不只是对避免灾难感兴趣，而且还要获得全球“持续性”状态，无论这个词有多么模棱两可。 在1990 年5月的桑塔费研讨会上——那时盖尔曼已经和考温共同主持这个项目了——盖尔曼指出，近来“持续性”实际上已经变成了时髦的胡言和没完没了的老生常谈。对大多数人来说，这似乎意味着一切正常。但一切正常正是问题所在。在迈克阿瑟基金会主任盖尔曼的协助下创立的环境智囊库，华盛顿世界资源研究所，创始人兼所长格斯·斯佩特（Gus Speth）和该所的其他人都认为，只有人类社会在几十年之内经历起码六大根本转变，全球的永久持续性才有可能实现： 1、在人口统计上，过渡到大致稳定的全球人口。 2、在技术上，过渡到人均对环境的最小影响。 3、在经济上，过渡到能够对商品和服务实行真正的成本兑付，包括对环境成本的计算，这样，人们对世界经济发展的积极性就会基于脱离对大自然的盘剥，而不是基于对大自然的消耗。 4、在社会组织上，人们要过渡到能够共同承担对大自然的损耗，同时增加世界上穷人的非破坏性就业机会。 5.在机构上，过渡到建立有利于全球共同解决全球性问题的超国界联盟，并允许各国政策之间的相互交融。 6.在信息传递上，我们的科学研究、教育和全球监控要能使大多数人懂得我们现在面临的挑战的本质。 当然，其诀窍在于从现在的此岸到达未来的彼岸，避开考温的A级全球性灾难。盖尔曼说，如果我们想要做到这些，那么对复杂的适应性系统的研究显然就是至关重要的。对这六大基本转变的认识意味着对相互牵制、相互依存的经济、社会和政治力量的理解。你不能像过去一样仅仅只从单个问题出发，就希望能对整个系统的行为做出描述。唯一的办法就是把这个世界当作一个相互紧密关联的系统来看，即使目前的计算机模型尚原始粗糙。 盖尔曼说，更重要的是，要从现在的此岸到达未来的彼岸，就要确保未来的彼岸是一个值得生存的世界。一个永久持续的人类社会很容易变成控制严酷、毫不宽容、失去人生自由的奥威尔式的可怖的社会。未来社会应该是一个有很强的适应性、很强健、对灾难有灵活的应付能力的社会，一个可以从错误中吸取经验教训的社会，一个不死板僵化、能够不断改善人类生活的质量、而不是数量的社会。 他说，要达到这个目的显然是一场逆流而上的奋战。在西方，知识分子和管理者们总是非常理性，他们看到的是会导致不利后果的事情，总是寻找能够防止这些不利后果发生的技术手段。所以我们才会有避孕措施和军备限制等等。这些手段和方法当然很重要，但真正的解决方案所要求的要比这多得多。真正的解决方案有赖于我们克制、升华和转变我们的传统欲望，比如像要超越和战胜我们的对手，特别是他族的对手的欲望。这些冲动也许曾经是可以调整过来的。但现在确实已经在我们头脑中扎下了根。可我们再也不能容忍这种冲动存在了。 盖尔曼说，这里还有一个关键的问题。一方面，人类受到迷信、神话故事的威胁，顽固地拒绝认识这个星球的紧迫问题，坚持各种形式的部落制思维方式。所以，要实现这六大根本性转变，就必须就原则性问题达成某种广泛的共识和对地球未来的理性看法，当然更要做到在全球范围内更加理性地管理我们自己。 但另一方面，“如何宽容和维护文化的多样性？”盖尔曼问。这不是政治上是否正确的事，而是不可回避的现实存在。文化是不会被法令所连根拔除的。看看伊朗国王想全盘西化伊朗而引起的强烈反抗就知道了。这个世界如果不能容忍多元化文化的存在，就会完全失控。而且，文化的多元性对于一个永久持续的世界，就像基因的多样性对于生物一样重要。盖尔曼说，我们需要跨文化的大融合。“尤为重要的是，我们需要发现为什么我们的文化对物质的需要超过了对精神的需要。”从长远来说，要解决物质和精神这个两难的问题，不但需要敏锐的感觉，更需要行为科学研究有新的突破和更深刻的发展。治愈每个人的精神疾病并非易事，治愈社会痼疾也并非易事。 盖尔曼说，当然，研究这类多面的、相互深刻关联的系统正是桑塔费研究所成立的目的。但他认为，这个研究所的规模太小了，无法独自承担对全球持续问题的研究，需要有像世界资源研究所、布鲁金斯研究所和迈克阿瑟基金会的共同参与（实际上迈克阿瑟基金会已经是该项目的资助机构之一了）。盖尔曼说，应该由这些机构来承担政策方面的研究，而桑塔费研究所则从事基础理论方面的研究，这样他们就可以起步，将持续性问题作为一个整体来研究了。 到了1990年5月，这个研究课题已经被改称为“全球持续”项目，而且早已不在考温的控制之下了。考温唯一能做的是把气憋在肚子里，沉默地听凭它发展。毕竟盖尔曼是研究所科学委员会的主席之一，比考温更有权对任何项目的研究方向发表意见。盖尔曼能够、也确实做到了让这个项目按他的意愿进展，而考温作为研究所所长，只能负责出去为这个项目筹措资金。 就好像这些还不够令考温气恼似的，盖尔曼的研究议题更让考温气上加气。其实考温并不认为这个研究议题有什么不对。考温最初也是认为当今的世界远不能持久，这个世界急需根本性的改变。惹恼考温的不是这个原因，而是盖尔曼和他在布鲁金斯、迈克阿瑟和世界资源研究所的同伙们过于自信了。尽管盖尔曼的主张与他们实际所做的完全不同，但只要你实际听听他们所说的，就无法不感到他们认为自己完全知道问题的症结所在，完全知道解决的办法，他们现在所要做的一切就是采取保护雨林的行动。 有这种感觉的并不是考温一个人。在研究所，有许多人都对全球持续项目抱有很深的疑虑。这个项目已经变成了某种全球环境保护运动了。“如果你早就知道该怎么做了，那这就不是一个研究项目了。”一位桑塔费研究所的研究员说。“这变成了一个政策实施项目，这不是桑塔费研究所应该扮演的角色。” 但实际情况是，考温实在没有精力再来和盖尔曼争执了。让他去主持这个见鬼的全球持续性项目吧。考温准备退休以后再回到他概念中的全球稳定性研究上来。“我感到马瑞和我在知识层面上并不存在很深的分歧。我们太相似了。也许这正是问题之所在。他的社交手段很容易就会让我感到被冒犯了。而且不止我一个人对他有这种感觉。但我没有理由非要忍受这些，所以很容易就会不耐烦。如果我的性格再完美一些，就不会出现这些问题了。我已经到了这把年纪了，不会和我已经做出让步的人去计较了。” 1990 年已接近尾声，盖尔曼仍然是桑塔费研究所所长一职唯一可以考虑的人选。这时考温凑巧和奈普闲聊了一次。奈普已经回到了罗沙拉莫斯主持介子物理实验室的工作。奈普是一位身材高大、脾气随和的物理学家，有一头惹人注目的波浪般起伏的银色卷发。他在和考温的闲聊中谈及罗沙拉莫斯正在提供非常吸引人的提早退休待遇，这样起码可以部分地缓解冷战后国防经费缩减带来的压力。五十八岁的奈普说，他正在考虑是否要借机提前退休。 他俩都不记得当时是谁在谈到这个问题时都说了些什么。但他们很快就触及到了这个问题：奈普是否有兴趣接受桑塔费研究所所长的位置？ 对考温来说，奈普是他中意的人选。奈普参与了桑塔费研究所最初的创建工作。当时创建这个研究所还是一个在实验室资深研究员中酝酿的想法。奈普总是很乐意尽力帮助促成这件事，甚至同意担任了两年研究所董事会主席的职务。他曾经在华盛顿主持过美国国家科学基金会，后来又主持过美国大学研究协会（Universities ResearchAssociation）。芝加哥城外的费米国家加速器实验室和能源部新的超导超级对撞机项目都是在这个七十二个成员的大学财团的领导之下的。奈普显然很关心桑塔费研究所，关心研究所存在的意义。而且，与其他所长候选人不同的是，奈普对研究所该做什么、不该做什么，没有很强烈的个人倾向。 “乔治，”奈普抗议道：“你必须记住我不是个理论科学家，我是一个行政管理人员。” “这太好了。”考温答道。 对奈普接任所长一职的讨论就此开始。奈普同意，如果研究所董事会要他出来担任所长一职，他会接受。当考温把这话带给董事会时，董事会成员显然都松了一口气。本来始终有一个悬而未决问题：盖尔曼是否愿意，或是否可能把自己转变成一个行政管理者，是否愿意把大量耗费在别的兴趣上的时间转移到桑塔费研究所的事务上来，干好这份工作。到1990年底为止，大家总的看法是，他不会的。那么，既然现在有了一个大家都能接受的所长人选，事情就变得显而易见了，就连盖尔曼自己也明白，如果硬要进行投票表决的话，他必输无疑。 同时，盖尔曼自己也开始意识到，他想得到的是什么样的工作。潘恩斯和其他人花了大量的时间一再向他解释当一个行政管理者意味着什么。它意味着财政预算、各种会议和没完没了的人事纷争。潘恩斯一直在劝说他。“马瑞，这不是你想在桑塔费研究所做的工作。你想做的是当一个教授。” 所以最终大家都保持了君子风度。1990年12月召开了特别董事会议，盖尔曼本人也投了奈普一票。奈普获得了一致通过，当选为所长。 盖尔曼说：“我感到有些失望。我很想当这个所长。这是我有生以来第一次对这类行政工作表示兴趣。不过我很高兴奈普当选了所长。很高兴我们选择的所长是个很好的人，很容易共事。” 考温履行了他一年前的诺言，在1991年3月召开的董事会上辞去了桑塔费研究所所长一职。也正像他所希望的那样，他尽到了自己的良心和义务。国家科学委员会和能源部续延了对桑塔费研究所的资助。但只是续延了三年，而不是五年，维持了两百万美元的数额，而没有提高到两千万美元。不过这笔资金确实得到了续延。同时，迈克阿瑟基金会也已经决定将它对桑塔费研究所的资助金从每年三十五万美元提高到每年五十万美元。好几位私人资助者也提高了他们的资助数额，包括高登· 盖逖（Gorden Getty）、威廉姆·凯克（William Keck）。马克斯韦尔也答应每年提供三十万美元的教授基金，尽管他仍然按学期汇寄这笔基金。考温确实做到了在离任时为研究所近期工作奠定了良好的资金基础。他的接班人奈普可以从容地继位，不用一上台就经常要为日常经费而寻求资金了。（但在现实中，生活并不那么充满玫瑰色彩。1991年末马克斯韦尔突然死亡后，他允诺的那笔教授基金也就化为泡影了。这给奈普1992年度财政预算留下了一个大缺口，迫使研究所减少了来访人员和博士后的名额。但幸运的是，这一亏空只是暂时的，可以弥补得上。） 桑塔费研究所所长一职刚顺利交接完，考温就离开了研究所。在经受了七年的焦虑和行政重荷之后，他现在最需要的是好好休整一下。这对他来说，意味着愉快地重新沉浸到他和罗沙拉莫斯的同事们已经计划好的双贝它衰变实验中去。这项实验已经接近尾声了，他有好几个月几乎都不在桑塔费研究所露面了。（双贝它衰变实验是考温长长的一串研究计划中的一项。该项目于前一年10月受到能源部的表彰，考温被提名为具有崇高荣誉的费米奖得主之一。这项奖是为表彰在发展、利用和控制核能源方面的杰出科学成果而颁发的。前几位获该奖者包括像冯·诺意曼、奥本海默这样的人物。双贝它衰变是放射性的一种古怪而极为罕见的形式。它为常规的基本粒子物理理论提供了敏感的实验测试。令考温感到欣慰的是，他和他的同事们能够探测出这种衰变，证明了它完全符合常规理论的说法。） 但对考温来说，暂短的休整对他身体的恢复显然很有效果。1991年秋天，他又重返桑塔费，在研究所与朗顿共用一个办公室。不止一个人说过，他现在看上去有多么健康、多么精力旺盛。 考温说：“我不知道该如何解释我从所长的位置上退下来后的感觉。就让我用这样的比喻来描述这种感觉吧：这就好像有一个人一直处在一片噪音之中，当噪音突然终止后他就有点回不过神来地说：'那是怎么回事！？'或者就像你一直穿着一件苦行僧的粗布衣服，当你刚脱下这件衣服时，会有点怪怪的感觉。如果你还具有清教徒的性格，你刚脱下这件衣服时甚至还有点犯罪的感觉。但我现在已经穿上了改良过的粗布衣服，感觉好多了。” 他说，特别是，他现在有这么多时间来思考这门新的复杂性科学。他发现自己比以往任何时候都为之倾心。“谈到这个知识性概念的向心力，我感到似乎我比任何人都为之所吸引。复杂性科学已经紧紧抓住了我的心，使我总是沉浸在一种永恒的激动情绪中。我感到我的生命似乎得到了释放，是心智的释放。这对我来说是一个重大的成就，使我感到我在这里无论做任何事都是值得的。” 他说，最吸引他的问题是适应的问题，或更准确地说，在不断变化和不可预测的情况下的适应。当然，他认为这只是探索全球永久持续性中的核心问题之一。他同时发现，在所有谈及“过渡”到一个永久持续的世界的内容中，一直都忽视了适应的问题。他说：“不知是怎么搞的，我们的研究总是在谈一组从A状态，即现状，到B 状态，即永久持续的未来的过渡。但问题是，根本不存在这么一种状态。你不得不假设，过渡与转变会永远地持续下去。你必须讨论的是，这些系统一直保持着某种动力，这种动力根植于其所处环境之中，而环境本身也是在不断变动的。”就像荷兰德所说，稳定就等于死亡。这个世界处在混沌的边缘，必须使自己适应永恒的新奇。考温说：“对此我还没有找到合适的词汇来描述。只是最近，我在玩味海弗劳克·伊利斯（Havelock Ellis）的书《生命之舞》，但这个词也不尽其意，生命并不是舞蹈，甚至没有一个特定的节律。所以，如果我们回到赫拉克利特的概念：'万物皆动'，那么，'永久持续'这个词就并没有抓住其本质。” 考温接着说，当然，也许像混沌的边缘和自组织的临界点这样的概念告诉我们，无论我们怎样想防患于未然，A级灾难都是不可避免的。“巴克已经证明了，各种规模的动乱与崩落，包括最大的灾难，都是基本的现象。我相信他的话。”但同时，对神秘莫测、似乎不可遏制的、日益增长的复杂性，他仍然抱乐观态度。“巴克所观察的系统并不具有记忆和文化。我坚信，如果你一代代地加入记忆和准确的信息，在这点上比以往有长足的长进，那么你就会积累智慧。我很怀疑世界是否会过渡为一个没有创伤、没有悲剧的乐园。但我认为，人类应该相信自己能塑造未来。如果我们无法完全塑造未来，我想我们起码能够实施某种灾难控制。也许我们能够做到让灾难的概率逐代下降。比如说，十年前，核战争的可能性为几个百分点，而现在已经消失为零了。现在我们更加关注的是环境和人的灾难。所以我怀疑，如果我们逐日地反复强调这一点，不断改善环境恶化和人口爆炸的状况，那将会有助于我们创造一个更美好的未来社会。这比只会说：'这全是上帝的旨意'要强得多。” 另一方面，考温在评价他作为桑塔费研究所的创始人的业绩时，变得格外慎重。他说：“我很高兴我做了这一尝试。现在我还无法评介这一尝试究竟有多成功。但在有一点上，我们的时间没有白费：现在许多人都认为，是我们桑塔费研究所促使了物理学家走向经济学。社会学等所谓的'软'科学的研究。这使这些物理学家不再像以前那样顽固坚持只研究能够进行严谨分析的现象，而开始进入了以往总是嗤之以鼻的'模糊'领域。一些保守的物理学家批评他们这样做是把自己也弄模糊了，但复杂这门新的科学的出现已经是众所周知的事了，研究复杂性科学就是要关心到关于国家和世界的福利和幸福的事。我认为，复杂性科学的研究趋势，无论对国家还是对学术界都有好处。因为如果这门科学能够发挥作用，就会导致重大事件的发生。我认为，这重大事件就是，过去几个世纪变得像一盘散沙一样的科学事业将获得重新整合，物理学分析的严谨性与社会科学、人文科学的远见将被重新结合起来。” 他补充说，到目前为止，桑塔费的这一努力已大见成效，特别是在经济学研究项目上。但谁知道这种努力能延续多久呢？尽管所有的人都付出了最大的努力，但也许仍然会有一天，甚至连桑塔费研究所都会变得停滞不前、保守老化。凡机构都会发生这种情况。“也许不得不关闭这儿的研究所，到别处另开一个研究所。我认为，开办这个研究所是必要的。无论桑塔费研究所是否能够永远办下去，桑塔费的事业都必须继续下去。”