Chapter 34 fledgling program director

fledgling program director At the same time, the preparations for the project were enough for Arthur to keep busy.Indeed, he was just beginning to appreciate the full meaning of the work he had been given. Soon, events made it impossible for Holland to co-chair the economics research project with him.Holland spent the academic year 1986-1987 as a visiting scholar at Los Alamos, having already used up his annual leave.He's back at Michigan, re-engaged in the university politics of merging his department into the College of Engineering.His wife, Morita, also couldn't get out of her job as head of the science library system.So Holland can only stay in Santa Fe for a month or so at most.

Thus, the work of the organizational economics project fell entirely on Arthur's shoulders.And Arthur had never presided over such an academic research project in his life, let alone created such a project. What does John Reed want us to do?he asked Eugenia Singer.She is now a liaison between Reid and the chairman of Citibank. "He said do it your way, as long as it's not done the normal way," she replied after questioning Reed. What do you need us to do?He asked Ken Arrow and Phil Anderson.They said they needed him to create a new and rigorous approach to economics research based on a complex adaptive systems perspective.

What does the Santa Fe Institute want us to do?He asked George Cowin and the other Santa Fe executives. "The scientific committee wants you to take fundamentally new directions for economics," they told him.By the way, the budget for the first year is $560,000, part of which comes from Citibank, part from the MacArthur Foundation, and part from the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy.Of course, the economics project is the first and most important research project of the Institute, so we all pay close attention to the progress of the project. "I walked away shaking my head. Half a million dollars is only enough for a moderately large project in academic research, and we faced a huge challenge. It was like saying to me: 'Take the ice ax and rope, and go climb Mount Everest.' I was terrified, and thought it incredible."

In reality, of course, Arthur was far from alone.Arrow and Anderson were more than happy to give him moral support, advice, and constant encouragement. "They kind of became the cornerstone and leaders of the project," Arthur said.Indeed, he considered the project to be theirs.But they made it very clear that Arthur was the main executive. "They stayed out of the way and asked me to direct the research and let me get this project off the ground." He said he made two decisions early on.The first one is about the research topic.He was clearly not interested in the idea of ​​applying chaos theory and nonlinear dynamics to economics.That's basically what's going on in Ah Ro's head.According to what he knows, many research groups have been engaged in this type of research for a long time, but there are very few research results.Nor was Arthur interested in the idea of ​​making the project a simulation of the entire world economy. "That's probably what Reid had in mind. And it seems like it's a favorite thing for engineers and physicists to do, but it's like saying to you, 'If you're an astrophysicist, why don't you do the whole universe A simulation of the universe? '" Such a model of the universe would be as convoluted as the real universe, he said.That's why astrophysicists don't do it.Indeed, they only do one set of models for quasars, one set for spiral galaxies, another set for star formation, and so on.They use a computer scalpel to dissect specific phenomena.

And that's exactly what Arthur wanted Santa Fe's project to do.He certainly doesn't want to dismiss the idea of ​​experimenting with the glass house economy, but he also wants people to learn how to walk before they start running.In particular, he hopes that this project will address some old problems in economics, and that when these old problems are viewed from the perspective of all Santa Fe themes, such as adaptation, evolution, learning, multiple equilibrium, emergence, and complexity, How will they vary.For example, why do stock market bubbles and crashes occur?Or, why did money exist (i.e., why was a particular good like gold or concha beads widely accepted as a medium of exchange)?

The emphasis on making the program tackle old problems in economics later sparked heated debate, Arthur said.Some on the institute's scientific committee accused him of not being inventive enough. "But we think it's a good way, a good strategy, a good step to answer conventional questions," Arthur said. "These are the questions that economists agree on. Most importantly, if we can show that turning theoretical assumptions into more realistic ones can make a significant difference in the way you see things, then, We can show the economics community that we are actually making a contribution to economics."

By the same token, he says, when Marie Gell-Mann urged him to make a manifesto for the economics project, one as loud as nailed to a church door, he declined. "He pitched the idea to me a few times. He wanted the manifesto to say: 'A different form of economics is about to be born' or something. But I thought about it and decided not to. Solve problems one by one, solve The old problems of economics are much better than that. We'll make it convincing." The second critical decision is about who to choose to work on the project.Of course, he needed open-minded people who shared Santa Fe's ideas.Ten days of economics seminars proved how rich and exciting such a group of people can be.Arthur said: "I realized early on that neither I, nor Arrow, nor Anderson, nor anyone else could frame Santa Fe research in a top-down manner. emerges from our own research, from the way we approach problems, and from each of our own minds."

But Arthur learned from his own fiasco in his bid to get his first paper on increasing returns published that it was crucial to establish the credibility of the Santa Fe economics project among mainstream economists. important.So he hoped that among the people involved in the project would be high-profile economic theorists such as Arrow, or Tom Sargent of Stanford University, who would not only help Santa Fe to ensure that its undefined ideas fully fit into existing scholarship. norms, and when they go out and talk about the Santa Fe philosophy, people want to listen. Unfortunately, organizing this team is easier said than done.After Arthur negotiated a shortlist of candidates with Arrow, Anderson, Paines, and Holland, the program's needs for non-economics researchers were largely met.Phil Anderson agreed to come to Santa Fe for a short stay, and his student, Richard Palmer of Duke University, agreed to come to Santa Fe for a short stay.Holland will definitely be there too.Then there's David Lane, the quick-witted and articulate Minnesota probability theorist.Arthur even brought in fellow Soviet probability theorists Jori Ummliev and Jori Keniowski, who had published papers with him.Plus Kaufman, Farmer, and all the rest of the Los Alamos and Santa Fe circles.But when Arthur started calling out economists, he quickly discovered that his focus on credibility was far from wrong.Almost everyone has heard the rumors about Santa Fe.Aro keeps Santa Fe on his lips wherever he goes.Who is the Tanzanian Tafei Institute and what do they do?Many people don't know yet. "When I bring economists together, they always say, 'Well, fine, but it's late, I've got other arrangements.' Basically, let economists who haven't been to the Santa Fe It's very, very difficult to be interested in Taffy's research projects."

The good news is that the economists who attended the Santa Fe Economics Symposium were a fine bunch—after all, they were chosen by Arrow himself.And the feedback from outside the circle wasn't entirely discouraging.Both Arrow and Sargent agreed to come and stay for a few months.John Rust and William Brock also agreed to come from Wisconsin.Ramon Marimon from the University of Minnesota and John Miller from the University of Michigan will also be there.Miller had just finished his doctoral dissertation, and his research had a very important role in Holland's classifier system.Arthur was most proud of the success, Frank Hahn (Cambridge University) will come.He is the number one figure in British economic theory.

All in all, in the first year, there will be about 10 to 20 outstanding talents participating in the economics project to varying degrees.Seven or eight of them would stay in Santa Fe all year.This scale is equivalent to the economics department of a small college.Together they will rebuild economics.