Chapter 38 Four Analysis on the Current Situation[1]

(March 15, 1946) With regard to the current situation, I have four points of analysis that I would like to talk about. Let everyone see if they are appropriate. These are also consistent views in the past. Looking at it now, it seems that they are not very finalized.The situation is indeed in turmoil, affecting various countries.Many people have asked whether the Third World War will break out. Although the people we asked said that it will not start now, there are still many people who are worried.I want to say four things: The first is that the main force of fascism has been overthrown, opening the way for the development of the democratic forces of the peoples of the world. Stalin, Molotov[2] and we have all said this.It is a fact that the main force of fascism has indeed been defeated.The defeat of fascism is not the death of democracy, but the development of democracy.

Article 2: The remnants of fascism and the pro-fascist forces in the Allied countries[3] (Churchill, Hurley, He Yingqin[4] and the like. Qiu was not in the past, but he is now. He is an isolationist. The British Labor Party and Chiang Kai-shek are not mentioned here. put it inside, and only talk about those "experts", that is, they only adopt one-sided policy and not two-sided policy), have already organized and will continue to organize anti-Soviet, anti-communist and anti-democratic counter-revolutionary movements in the future, and attempt to set off a third world war. war.These reactionary forces are the main current and future enemies. If these forces are not overcome, the Third World War will hardly be avoided.

Article 3. There are two groups of democratic forces in each capitalist country, namely, the broad masses of the people and the bourgeoisie and the Soviet and Communist factions.After the Second World War, not only the consciousness of the broad masses of the people was greatly raised, and they were able to actively oppose the anti-Soviet and anti-Communist counter-revolutionary activities and the Third World War, but also the bourgeoisie in Britain, the United States, France and China and Germany, Italy, The Japanese bourgeoisie is splitting into two major factions, and will continue to split into two major factions, the anti-Soviet and anti-communist factions and the Soviet and Communist factions.In the past, the division within the bourgeoisie was an important condition for overthrowing the main force of fascism (if only Chamberlain[5] did not have Churchill, only Wang Jingwei[6] did not have Chiang Kai-shek, fascism would not be overthrown), and the continued division now will definitely play a new role. more important role, so we should promote this split of them.The bourgeoisie and the Soviet Republican faction also include two groups of people: the bourgeois center and the left, such as Chiang Kai-shek is the center.He has two propositions: the first is that all revolutionary parties should be wiped out; the second is that if they cannot be wiped out for a while, they should be kept temporarily until they are eliminated in the future.The leftists are different from Chiang Kai-shek, such as Zhang Dongsun[7] and others.These two factions are able to cooperate with us today, because the middle faction has a "temporary reservation", which creates the possibility of compromise.Don't think that the world is black and there is no seam.There is a gap between the broad masses of the people and the bourgeoisie, and the continued division of the bourgeoisie into two factions is also a gap.The broad masses of the people, together with the bourgeoisie and the Soviet and Communist factions, can defeat the anti-Soviet and anti-communist plots, and the prospect of a civil war instead of a world war may emerge.At least it can delay the outbreak of the Great War and strive for ten to fifteen years.If we can fight for fifteen years, we may not fight a world war, but only fight a civil war.If a world war broke out at that time, the counter-revolutionary forces would surely be defeated.

Fourth, the party's line is to unite the broad masses of the people and the bourgeois center and left to overthrow the remnants of fascism and counter-revolutionary forces among the bourgeoisie.This has always been the line of the party.Oppose the most stubborn and uncompromising forces in the bourgeoisie; unite with those who can compromise. No matter how big the storm is, we must grasp these few points.The first one is pretty clear.The second is something that people tend to forget, and they forget it when they are a little calmer.I forgot it from February 1st to 9th, and I remembered it as soon as the Jiaochangkou incident[8] came.Marshall[9] was able to take a long-term view, and Chiang Kai-shek is also different from He Yingqin. If the United States and Chiang Kai-shek have a long-term viewer, some of us will forget the second point after half a year, and feel that the world is peaceful and everything is going well, which is dangerous. very.Our army is going to be downsized, but not as little as possible. Some comrades don't know this and need to make it clear.

Five years is a juncture.As long as five years pass, the Soviet Union will completely recover from the trauma of the war, and we will become stronger, and things will be easy to manage. We will be able to get rid of the possibility of being wiped out, and we must get rid of it.Of course, this includes resolutely fighting against the reactionaries, and eliminating as many of them as possible in the struggle. Published based on the transcript of the speech kept by the Central Archives. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------ note [1] This is Mao Zedong's speech at a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.

[2] Molotov (1890-1986), was a member of the Political Bureau of the CPSU Central Committee, the first vice chairman of the People's Committee of the Soviet Union and the People's Commissar for Foreign Affairs. [3] Allies refer to China, the United States, Britain, the Soviet Union, France and other countries that jointly fought against the Axis powers of Germany, Italy, and Japan during World War II. [4] Churchill (1874-1965), leader of the British Conservative Party.From 1940 to 1945, he served as Prime Minister of the British Wartime Coalition Cabinet and led the British fight against the fascist German attack.On March 5, 1946, he delivered a speech in Fulton, the United States, advocating the Anglo-American alliance against the Soviet Union, which opened the prelude to the post-war "Cold War".Hurley (1883-1963), American Republican.Served as the U.S. ambassador to China at the end of November 1944. He was resolutely opposed by the Chinese people because of his support for Chiang Kai-shek's anti-communist policies, and he resigned in November 1945.He Yingqin was the Chief of Staff of the Military Commission of the Kuomintang Government and the Commander-in-Chief of the Army Command of the Kuomintang Army at that time.

[5] Chamberlain (1869-1940), leader of the British Conservative Party.He served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1937 to 1940. During his term of office, he implemented a policy of appeasement that condoned the German, Italian, and Japanese fascists to launch aggressive wars. [6] Wang Jingwei (1883-1944), a native of Shanyin (now Shaoxing), Zhejiang.After the outbreak of the Anti-Japanese War in 1937, he served as the vice chairman of the National Defense Supreme Council of the Kuomintang, advocated compromise with Japan, and was the leader of the pro-Japanese faction in the Kuomintang.In March 1938, he served as the vice president of the Kuomintang. In December of the same year, he publicly surrendered to Japanese imperialism and later served as the chairman of the Nanjing puppet government supported by Japanese imperialism.

[7] Zhang Dongsun (1886-1973), born in Hangzhou, Zhejiang.At that time, he was the executive member of the Central Committee of the China Democratic League. [8] On February 10, 1946, people from more than 20 organizations from all walks of life in Chongqing held a meeting to celebrate the success of the Political Consultative Conference in Jiaochangkou Square. More than ten people. [9] Marshall (1880-1959), American Democrat.In December 1945, he was appointed as a special envoy to China by the President of the United States to participate in the negotiations between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party in the name of "mediation".In August 1946, it was announced that the "mediation" had failed, and he returned to the United States soon.