Chapter 20 Chapter 4 Population Growth

The first section is the history of population theory. The production of wealth is but a means for the subsistence of man, the satisfaction of his desires, and the development of physical, mental, and moral activity.But man himself is the principal means of the production of wealth for which man is the ultimate end.In this and the next two chapters the supply of labor—that is, the development of a population in numbers, strength, knowledge, and character—will be studied. ①See Section 1, Chapter 1, Part 4. In the animal and vegetable kingdoms reproduction is governed, on the one hand, by the propensity of the individual to reproduce his kind, and, on the other, by the struggle for existence which weeds out the young before they reach maturity.Only in man is the conflict of these two opposing forces complicated by other influences.On the one hand, concern for the future leads many to control their natural impulses: sometimes for parental purposes;Society, on the other hand, exerts pressure on individuals with religious, moral, and legal sanctions to sometimes accelerate and sometimes retard population growth.

The study of population growth is often presented as if it were a modern study.But the study of population, in a more or less obscure form, has long attracted the attention of thinking men of all ages in the world.In the Eastern and Western worlds, the laws, customs, and ceremonies of the legislators, the moralists, and those anonymous thinkers whose far-sighted wisdom had influenced the habits of the people, were of great importance to the greater part of them. , we can trace the influence of population studies, but this influence is often unacknowledged, and sometimes not even clearly recognized.In powerful nations, and in periods of great military conflict, they seek to increase the supply of males capable of bearing arms; and in higher stages of progress, they inculcate a great respect for the sanctity of human life; but At the lower stage of progress, they encourage and even force the cruel massacre of the old and the weak, sometimes of some girls.

In ancient Greece and Rome, in order to maintain the power to colonize, and because of the continual occurrence of wars, the increase in the number of citizens was regarded as a source of public strength; marriage was encouraged by public opinion, and in many cases even by law. Encouragement: Though even thoughtful minds of the day felt that the opposite might be necessary if the responsibilities of parents were to be lessened.In subsequent ages, as Roscher says, the opinion that the state should encourage population growth waxed and waned.This opinion prevailed under the first two Tudor kings of England; but it weakened and changed during the course of the sixteenth century; This opinion began to wane when a marked stimulus to population was given, while at the same time the increase of the sheep-farms, and the disintegration of that part of the industrial system established by the monasteries, reduced the effective demand for labour.Population growth was subsequently checked by an increase in the standard of living comfort, the effect of which was the widespread adoption of wheat as a staple food by the English people during the first half of the eighteenth century.At that time, there was even a fear that the population was actually declining, a fear that later research proved to be unfounded.The assertions of Carlyle and Wakefield concerning the benefits of dense population have already been foreshadowed for Pantey.Childe also said: "Anything that diminishes a nation's population impoverishes it" and that "the wealth of most nations in the civilized parts of the world is more or less proportional to the size of the population, and not in direct proportion to the fertility of the land3." At the culmination of the world struggle against France, when more and more armies were increasingly required, and the manufacturers required more men to use the new machinery, the prejudices of the ruling classes Very much in favor of population growth.The popularity of this opinion was so widespread that Pitt declared in 1796 that anyone who served the state with several children was entitled to state aid.A regulation passed during the military emergency in 1806 stipulated that any father with two or more natural children could enjoy the right to tax exemption, but once Napoleon was safely imprisoned on the island of St. Helena, this regulation was was abolished. ①

①It seems that Aristotle's "see his "Politics" Chapter 2, Chapter 6) opposed Plato's method of equalizing property and eliminating poverty, on the grounds that unless the country exerts firm control on population growth, otherwise, this method will It is impossible to implement.Plato himself knew this, as Zhou Weit pointed out (see his Laws and Aristotle's Politics VII, Chapter 16).The previous opinion that the population of Greece decreased from the seventh century BC, and that of Rome from the third century BC, has recently become problematic.See the article "Ancient Population" by Meyer in the "Dictionary of Social Sciences".

① See Roscher's "Political Economy" Section 254. ② He argues that Holland seems to be richer than France, because the Dutch have gained many benefits that people who live in poor land and are therefore more dispersed cannot obtain. "Fertile land is better than inferior land yielding the same rent." See Chapter 1 of his book "Political Mathematics". ③See Chapter 10 of "On Trade" by Childe.Hailis has a similar argument in his "On Money", and suggests that "certain privileges be given to those who have children to encourage marriage among the lower classes," and so on.

①Peter said: "In the case of many children, let us make relief a matter of right and honor, and not a cause of disgrace and contempt. This will make the large family a blessing, not a curse, and when it can be paid by labor. A proper distinction may then be drawn between those who support themselves, and those who, after having served the state with a few children, are entitled to the aid of the state for their maintenance." Of course, he hoped that "where relief is not needed, there will be no Encourage relief." Napoleon I was willing to support at his own expense one member of any family with seven boys; Anyone who has more than ten children born on the same day is exempted from all public taxes.The rapid increase in the population of Germany compared with that of France was the main impetus for the decree of the French Parliament in 1885 to provide for the education and boarding of the seventh child of poor families at public expense; in 1913 A law was also passed providing for, under certain conditions, allowances for parents of extended families. The British Budget Act of 1909 also slightly reduced income tax for the father of the family.

Before the second quarter. Throughout this age, among those who think most seriously about social problems, there has been a growing feeling that overpopulation, whether it has made the state strong or not, is bound to cause great misery: and that the rulers of the state have no right to sacrifice personal happiness to the expansion of the nation.We have seen, especially in France, that the cruel selfishness of the court and its entourage, at the expense of the happiness of the people for their own luxury and military glory, gave rise to revolt.Had the benevolent sympathy of the Physiocrats, then, been able to overcome the frivolity and harshness of the French privileged classes, the eighteenth century would probably not have ended in riots and bloodshed, the progress of liberty in England would not have been checked, and the pointers of progress It will be at least one generation ahead of now.In fact, little attention was paid at the time to Quesnay's deliberate and forceful protest that "one should aim at increasing the national income rather than at increasing the population, because what is gained from a good income A situation of greater comfort is preferable to a situation in which a population exceeds income and is constantly in dire need of means of subsistence.”1

① The Physiocratic theory of the tendency of population to increase to the margin of the means of subsistence can be explained in the words of Du Que: "Because there is always a large number of workers to choose from, he chooses the worker who is willing to work at the cheapest. Therefore, the worker because of Competing with each other, they were compelled to lower their prices; and labor of every kind necessarily came, and in fact did, to the following result: that the wages of the laborer be limited to those necessary for the means of subsistence." (See "Research on the Production and Distribution of Wealth" by Du Ge, Chapter 6).

Likewise, Sir James Stuart said (see his Inquiry into the Principles of Political Economy, Part I, Chapter 3): "The reproductive force is like a spring loaded with weight, and its stretching is always It is inversely proportional to the reduction of resistance. When the food does not increase or decrease temporarily, the reproductive number will increase as much as possible; if the food becomes reduced in the future, the spring will be pressed too heavily; the fecundity will drop below zero, and the population will at least Decrease in proportion to overweight. On the other hand, if food increases, the spring at zero point will start to stretch as the resistance decreases; people will start eating better; Proportion returns to deficiency." Stuart was very much influenced by the Physiocrats, and indeed in some respects by Continental rather than English political ideas: his artificial moderation of population The method seems to be very inappropriate for us now.See Chapter 12 of Part 1 of his "Principles of Political Economy": "In order to increase the population, there is great interest in combining an easily understood theory and a perfect knowledge of facts with the practical functions of government."

Adam Smith said very little about population, for he was writing during one of the most prosperous ages of the English working class; but what he said was wise, impartial, and modern in tone. of.He accepts the Physiocraticism as his basis, with this modification: he asserts that the necessaries of life are not a fixed and definite quantity, but vary from time to time and from place to place, and with still greater changes. ② But he did not fully explain this hint.Nothing at that time led him to foresee the second great limitation of Physiocracy, which in our time, as wheat costs less to transport from the center of America to Liverpool than it used to cost within the United States. became prominent.

②See Chapter 8 of Part 1 and Chapter 2 of Part 5 of "Research on the Nature and Causes of National Wealth".And see Chapter 4 of Part 2. The eighteenth century wore on until it came to an end and the next began; year after year the condition of the English working class grew more miserable.A staggering series of poor harvests, exhausting wars, and changes in the methods of industry which broke the old shackles, combined with inadequate poverty laws, have brought the working class into the greatest misery ever--at least The greatest misery since reliable records began in English social history.In particular, well-meaning zealots, mainly under French influence, advocated communist methods by which people could place full responsibility for the upbringing of their children on society. ④ ①During the ten years 1771 to 1780, when Adam Smith wrote, the average price of wheat was thirty-four shillings and sevenpence; Three shillings; eighty-three shillings and elevenpence from 1801 to 1810, and eighty-seven shillings and sixpence from 1811 to 1820. ②At the beginning of the last century, imperial taxes - mostly war taxes - amounted to one-fifth of the country's total revenue, but now it accounts for just over one-twentieth, and most of it is used for that Educational and other benefits not provided by the government at that time. ③See Section 7 below and Sections 5 and 6 of Chapter 3 of Part 1 above. ④ In particular, Godwin made such a claim in his "Study of Political Justice" (1792).Compare Malthus's criticism of this book (Population, Part III, Chapter 2), and Aristotle's criticism of Plato (see especially Aristotle's Politics, Part II, Chapter 2). Chapter 6), it is interesting to make a comparison. Thus, when sergeants of recruits and employers of labourers, demanded measures which would increase the population, the more far-sighted began to inquire whether the nation could avoid corruption, if the population continued to increase for a long time, as it then did.Chief among these researchers was Malthus, whose Essay on Population is the starting-point of all modern theories on the subject. Section III Malthus. Malthus's reasoning consists of three parts, which must be distinguished.The first part concerns the supply of labor.By careful study of the facts he proved the following, that all peoples of reliable historical record were so prolific that, if it were not want of the necessaries of life, or other causes-disease, war, infanticide, Finally, voluntary abstinence—the check in which the increase of population will be rapid and continuous. His second argument concerns the need for labor.Like the first part, it is based on facts, but it is proved by a different kind of facts.He proves that, up to the time of his writings, no country (unlike a city like Rome or Venice) has been richly supplied with the necessaries of life after its territory has become very densely populated.The product of nature's remuneration for human labor is its effective demand for population: and he proves that the rapid increase of the already dense population has not so far produced a proportional increase in this demand. ① ① But many of Malthus's critics think that he stated his arguments far less bluntly than he did; they forget passages like the following: "Reviewing the state of society After comparing the states of society, I can say with certainty that the calamities of population, even under unfavorable circumstances, in which the real causes of such calamities are almost completely unknown, have decreased rather than increased. If we can conceive of this It does not seem unreasonable to hope that ignorance will be gradually extinguished, and that this disaster will still be further reduced. An increase in the absolute number of people, of course, will occur, but such an increase will obviously not weaken this expectation. For everything depends on the relative proportions of population and food, not on the absolute number of them. From the first half of the book, it seems that the least populous countries are often the most injurious by the results of the principle of population." See " Chapter 12 of Chapter 4 of "Principles of Population". Thirdly, He draws the following conclusions: What has happened in the past may also happen in the future; the increase of population will be checked by poverty, or some other hardship, unless it is checked by voluntary abstinence.Therefore, he urged people to adopt this voluntary abstinence, and to live a life of moral purity, refraining from early marriage. ① ①In the first edition of "Principles of Population" in 1798, Malthus did not give any detailed description of the facts about his assertions, although he thought at the beginning that his assertions must be directly related to the study of facts; This is borne out by the words of Tom (who later became Cambridge's first professor of political economy).He said: "He first came up with his theory while debating the situation in certain other countries with his father." (See page 66 of Memoirs by Prem.) Contained, it will at least double every twenty-five years.He argues that, even in a country as densely populated as England, with its seven million inhabitants, it is conceivable, not probable, that a doubling of the population would double the means of subsistence produced by the land of England: but labor Nor is re-doubling sufficient to re-double the produce. "Let us, then, make this our law, though very impractical; suppose that every twenty-five years (that is, each time the population doubles), the total produce of England may increase by an amount equal to its present The quantity of means of subsistence produced", or in other words, increases in arithmetic progression.As Wagner puts it in his excellent introduction to population studies (see his third edition, p. 453), Malthus' desire to make himself clearly understood "made him add to his theory the Arguing too sharply, and formulating his doctrine as too absolute." Thus it became customary for him to say that production can increase at an arithmetic ratio: many writers think he emphasizes the statement itself; He stated only a shorthand way of one of the extremes which he thought any reasonable man could require him to admit.What he means, in modern terms, is that the tendency to diminishing returns, with which his argument has always been applied, came into full effect after the double production of England.Double the labor may produce double the produce: but quadrupling the labor does not triple the produce, and eight times the labor does not quadruple it. In the second edition of "Principles of Population" in 1803, the account of the facts on which he was based was so extensive and careful that he deserved a place among the founders of historical economics; The use of the phrase "arithmetic ratio" as suggested by earlier editions of the 1990s, has been tempered and explained many of the "sharp points" in his old doctrine.In particular, he ceased to take his formerly pessimistic view of the future of mankind; and he had the following hope that the increase of population could be stopped by moral checks, and that the old checks, namely, "sin and misery," would thus cease. up.Francis Price was not ignorant of Malthus' many faults, but he wrote in 1823 his defense, with excellent tone and judgment.Good accounts of Malthus's work are found in Malthus and His Works by Bollard, Kennan's History of the Theory of Production and Distribution in British Political Economy, 1776-1848, and Nicholson's Chapter 12 of Part 1 of Political Economy. His argument about the supply of population is still substantially valid, and only this part is directly relevant to us in this chapter.The developments of the situation have brought about changes in the theory of population, mainly concerning the second and third stages of his reasoning.We have seen that the English economists of the first half of the last century overestimated the tendency of increasing population to exert pressure on the means of subsistence; and it was not Malthus' fault that he could not have anticipated the great advances in the use of steam in land and sea transport. , and this progress enables the modern Englishman to acquire at comparatively little expense the produce of the most fertile land in the world. But the fact that he did not anticipate this change makes the second and third stages of his argument obsolete in form; although in substance they remain largely valid.Indeed, unless the checks on population growth imposed at the end of the nineteenth century were generally increased (which, in places not yet fully civilized, would necessarily change forms), the comfortable habits prevailing in Western Europe would have to be extended. It will be impossible to spread it all over the world and maintain it for hundreds of years.However, this point will be discussed in detail later. ① ①If the current population of the world is calculated on the basis of 1.5 billion, assuming that the current rate of population increase (approximately 8 people per 1,000 people per year, see Ravenstein’s paper read at the British Association in 1890) continues , we know that in less than two hundred years, the world population will reach six billion; 28 million square miles of fairly fertile land and 14 million square miles of barren grassland. Many people think the first estimate too high; but consider this: If the value of less fertile land is also Included, the result would be about 30 million square miles as assumed above).At the same time there will probably be great improvements in agricultural technique; if so, the pressure of population on the means of subsistence will be contained for about two hundred years, but not much longer. Section IV Marriage Rate and Birth Rate. The population growth of a nation is firstly determined by natural increase, that is, the number of births exceeds the number of deaths; secondly, it is determined by immigration. The number of births depends chiefly on the custom of marriage, the ancient history of which is full of lessons; but here we must confine ourselves to marriage in civilized countries. The age at marriage varies with climate.In warm countries, reproduction begins early and ceases early, while in cold countries it begins and ceases later; but in either case, marriage is delayed until the natural The longer the age above the marriageable age, the lower the birth rate; of course, the age of the wife is much more important than the age of the husband in this respect. ② Assuming no change in the climate, the average age at marriage depends mainly on how easy it is for young people to support themselves and maintain a family according to the standard of comfort prevailing among their friends and acquaintances. people are different. ① Of course, the length of a generation itself has some influence on population growth.If a generation is twenty-five years in one place, and twenty years in another; suppose that the population of both places doubles every two generations during a thousand years, the increase in the first place will be for a million times, and in the second place for thirty million times. ②According to Dr. Ogle's calculations (see "Journal of Statistics" No. 53), if the average age of marriage for British women is delayed by five years, the number of children produced per marriage will be reduced from the current 4.2 to 3. point one.Based on the fact that the climate in Budapest is relatively warm, Kolesi believes that the age of eighteen to twenty is the most fertile age for women, and the age of twenty-four to twenty-six is ​​the most fertile age for men.He concluded, however, that it was expedient to marry a little later than the above age, chiefly because the children born to women under twenty were generally of little vigor.See Proceedings of the Conference on Hygiene and Demography, London, 1892, and Journal of Statistics, No. 57. In the middle classes, a man's income seldom reaches its maximum until he is forty or fifty; the cost of raising children is great, and lasts for many years. The artisan earns almost the maximum at twenty-one unless he rises to a responsible position, but before that he earns very little: his children do not until they are about fifteen , may be a great burden to him; unless he sends his children to work in factories, so that they may earn their own living at a very young age; finally, unskilled laborers earn their maximum wages almost at eighteen ; meanwhile, his children were self-supporting at a very young age.As a result, the average age at marriage is highest among the middle class, second among skilled workers, and lowest among unskilled labourers. ① ①The term marriage in the text must be construed broadly to include not only legal marriages but all those informal unions which are permanent in nature and sufficient to encompass at least a few years of actual married life. Responsibility included.This informal union often occurs at an early age, and it is not uncommon for a couple of years to become a legal marriage.For this reason the average age of marriages in the broad sense--and we are speaking only of such marriages--is lower than the average age of legal marriages.The considerations for the working class as a whole are probably great in this respect; but for the unskilled labourers, they are much greater than for any other class.The following statistics must be interpreted in the light of this opinion and the fact that all British industrial statistics are rendered incompletely reliable by not paying much attention to the classification of the working class in official reports.According to the forty-ninth annual report of the Director of Household Registration, in some selected areas, the marriage reports from 1884 to 1885 were studied, and the following results were obtained; the number after each occupation is the marriage of unmarried men in that occupation The figures in parentheses are the average ages of unmarried women married to men in that occupation: miners 24.06 (22.46); weavers 24.38 (23.43); shoemakers and tailors 24.92 (24.31); skilled workers 25.35 (23.70); unskilled laborers 25.56 (23.66); commercial clerks 26.25 (24.43); shopkeepers and clerks 26 .67 (24.22); farmers and their sons 29.23 (26.91); freelance and independent classes 31.22 (26.40). Dr. Ogle has shown, in the papers referred to above, that in Great Britain, where the percentage of women of fifteen to twenty years of age working in factories is the greatest, the rate of marriage is generally the highest.This was no doubt partly due—as he was prompted—to the men's desire to supplement their own money earnings with those of their wives; but it was perhaps also partly due to the disproportionate number of women of marriageable age in these districts. The power of unskilled laborers, if they are not so poor as to support themselves, and are not checked by any external cause, is capable of doubling in thirty years; A trillion-fold increase in two hundred years, they show little, if any, increase in capacity below that.It follows deductively, therefore, that the increase of unskilled labourers, has never continued for long without check.This inference is confirmed by all the lessons of history.Throughout medieval Europe, and even in some parts of Europe today, unmarried unskilled laborers usually lived in farmhouses, or with their parents; As many workers as possible, the number of houses did not increase, and the young people had to wait as long as possible. Even now, in many parts of Europe, custom has the force of law, and forbids the marriage of more than one son in a family; the son who marries is usually the eldest, but in some places the youngest: Get out of this country.In the old-fashioned villages of the Old World, when great material prosperity arose, and all extreme poverty was abolished, it was generally explained by such pernicious and cruel customs as this. ① It is true that the severity of this custom was moderated by the power of immigration; but in the Middle Ages the free movement of men was hindered by severe regulations.Free towns, it is true, tended to encourage the emigration of the country people; but the rules of the guilds were in some respects almost as cruel to those who would flee from their native lands as those of the feudal landowners. ① 1 For example, those who traveled to the Chicheno Valley in the Bavarian Alps around 1880 saw that the custom still prevailed.The local population, who had adopted a far-sighted policy regarding the forest, has prospered as a result of the recent increase in the value of their forest, living in large houses, with young brothers and sisters working as servants in their own homes or elsewhere work.They were of a different race from the laborers in the neighboring valleys, whose lives were poor and difficult, but who seemed to think that the material prosperity paid by the Chicheno inhabitants was too great a price. ① See—for example—Rogers, Six Centuries of Work and Wages, pp. 106-107. The fifth section continues. In this respect the position of the employed agricultural laborer has changed considerably.The city was now always open to him and his children; if he went to the New World he might achieve more than any other kind of immigrant.But, on the other hand, the gradual rise in the value of land, and the increasing scarcity of land, tended to check the increase of population in certain areas where homesteading prevailed, and where new trade or emigration The aggressiveness of the family is modest, and the parents feel that their children's social status will be determined by the amount of land they own.They liked to artificially limit the growth of families, treated marriage much like a business contract, and always sought to marry their sons to heirs.Francis Galton once pointed out that although the families of English aristocrats were generally large, the habit of marrying the eldest son to the heiress of a family that seemed to have few children, and sometimes discouraging the marriage of the younger son, had already become a common practice. Many noble families were cut off.Similar habits among the French peasants, together with their preference for small families, have kept their numbers almost unchanged. On the other hand, as regards the conditions of rapid population growth; none seem to be more favorable than those of the agricultural districts of the new country.The land was plentiful, and the produce of the land was brought out by railroads and steamships, and returned in exchange for new implements, and many comforts and luxuries of life.So the “farmer”—as that is called in America the homesteader—sees the extended family not as a burden, but as a help.He and his family live a healthy outdoor life, nothing will stop the population growth, everything will stimulate it.Natural increase has been aided by immigration; and thus the population of the United States has increased sixteen-fold in the last century, although certain classes of inhabitants of the great American cities are said to be unwilling to have many children. ① ① The extreme caution of the yeoman, without change, has been discerned by Malthus; see his notes on Switzerland (see "Principles of Population", Part II, Chapter 5).Adam Smith says that poor women in the Highlands of Scotland frequently bear twenty children, of whom less than two reach manhood (see "Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of National Wealth," Part I, Chapter 8); The concept of is strongly advocated by Doubledale, see his book "The True Law of Population".See also The Law of Population by Seidler.Spencer seems to have thought that the progress of civilization would naturally lead to a complete check of the growth of population.But Malthus' opinion that savage peoples are less fecund than civilized peoples was applied by Darwin generally to the animal and vegetable kingdoms. Mr. Charles Booth (see Statistical Journal, 1893) divides London into twenty-seven districts (mainly registered districts); arranged in order of poverty, overpopulation, high birth rate and high death rate .He found that the order of the four sequences was generally the same.The excess birth rate over death rate is lowest in both very rich and very poor areas. The birth-rate in England and Wales has fallen nominally at about the same rate in both the towns and the country.But if we take into account the fact that the number of young married women in the country has been greatly reduced by the continual migration of young people from the country into the industrial areas, we know that the percentage of women of child-bearing age who have reached reproductive age is higher in the country than in the city. Much more, as shown in the table below issued by the Director of Household Registration in 1907. The movements of the population of France have been studied with great care: Le Vasseur's great work on the subject, The Population of France, is a source of valuable information not only on France but on other countries.Montesquieu, perhaps deducing it deductively, condemned the law of primogeniture in France at the time, which reduced the number of children in the family; Lou Parré condemned the law of forced division of estates in the same way. (See Le Vasseur: "The Population of France", Volume 3, pp. 171-177) calls attention to the opposite aspect: and says that Malthus' expectation of the influence of civil law on population is in line with Montesquieu's judgment, not In line with Lou Pare's judgment.But, in fact, birth rates vary widely across France.Where the greater part of the population has land, the birth rate is lower than where it is not.However, if the counties of France are classified according to the descending order of inheritance, the corresponding birth rate will drop almost uniformly. Among women, the birth rate is 23 per hundred; in Champs, where the inheritance is 412 francs, the birth rate is 13.2.And in Paris itself, in the arrondissements of the rich, the percentage of families with more than two children is smaller than in the arrondissements of the poor.Levasseur's careful analysis of the relation between economic conditions and birth rate is very interesting; his general conclusion is that the relation is not direct but indirect, through the interaction of both with respect to manners and habits. occurred due to the influence.He seems to think that although the great reduction in the population of France compared with the neighboring countries may be regrettable from the political and military point of view, the reduction in population is more beneficial than harmful to material comfort and even social progress. few. In general, the following seems to have been proven: the birth rate is generally lower among the well-to-do than among those who do not make too much preparation for their own and their family's future and lead busy lives, Moreover, the extravagant habits of life have reduced the fertility.剧烈的精神紧张恐怕也会使生殖力减低，这就是说，假定父母的固有的体力没有变化，他们对于有一个大家庭的期望，就会因精神紧张的大大增加而减少。当然，那些从事高度智力工作的人，作为一个阶级来说，具有平均以上的体质和神经的力量；高尔顿曾经说明，他们作为一个阶级而论不是不富于生殖力的。但是，他们通常都是晚婚的。 第六节英国人口史。 英国人口增长的历史，比联合王国人口增长的历史更为清楚，对于研究它的主要变动，我们会觉得颇有趣味。 在中世纪中，对人口增加的遏制，在英国与在别国是一样的。在英国，也像在别国一样，僧职是无力成家立业的人的避难所；宗教上的独身主义无疑地在某种程度上对人口的增长期了一种独立的遏制作用，但就大体而言，独身主义是被看作那些势将遏制人口增加的广泛的自然力量表现出来的一种方法，而不是被看作一种新的自然力量。传染性和流行性的疾病——风土病和传染病——是由不讲卫生的生活习惯所造成的，这种习惯在英国比在欧洲南部甚至更坏；农业歉收和交通困难造成了饥荒，虽然这种灾害在英国还不像在别国那样大。 乡村生活，像在别国一样，在习惯上是刻板的；年轻人在已婚的夫妇死去，因而在他们自己的教区内有了空缺之前，很难成家立业；因为，在平常的情况下，一个农业劳动者很少会想到迁往另一个教区的。因此，当疫疠、战争或饥荒使人口减少时，总有许多人等着结婚，他们填补了这些空缺；他们也许比平常的新婚夫妇更为年轻和强壮，因而有了较大的家庭。 ① ①例如，我们听说，1349年黑死病之后，大多数的婚姻都是生育很多的（见罗杰斯所著的《农业与价格史》第1卷第301页）。 然而，即使农业劳动者，也有向受疫疠、饥荒或战争的破坏较邻近地方严重的区域迁移的。而且，技术工人往往多少是各处流动的，那些从事建筑业、五金业和木材业的人，尤其是如此；虽然，毫无疑问，“漫游年”主要是青年人的事，过了漫游年之后，漫游者就会在他生长的地方住下来了。其次，在乡绅——尤其是在国内几处地方有住宅的大贵族——的家臣方面，似乎有很大的流动。最后，行会的利己的排外性虽然与日俱增，但是，英国的城市，也像别国一样，变成了许多人的避难所——他们在故乡不能获得工作和结婚的好机会。由于这种种情况，呆板的中世纪的经济制度就有了一些伸缩性。由于知识的进步、法律和秩序的建立以及海外贸易的发达，对劳动的需要就逐渐增加，而在某种程度上劳动需要的增加对人口是有利的。 ② ②关于十八世纪以前英国人口的密度，无从确实知道；但是，下面从斯特芬（见他所著的《英国工资劳动者的历史》第1编第463及以后各页）的作品中所转载的估计，恐怕是现有的最好的了。据《土地测量簿》所载，1086年英国的人口是在二百万至二百五十万之间。刚在黑死病（1348年）之前，英国的人口大概是在三百五十万和四百五十万之间；黑死病刚刚过去的时候，大概是二百五十万。此后英国的人口开始迅速恢复；但在1400年至1550年之间只有缓慢的增长；而在其后的一百年之中增加颇快，至1700年达到五百五十万。 如果我们相信哈里逊（见他所著的《描写英国》第2编第16章）所说的话，574年英国能服兵役的男子总数达到一百一十七万二千六百七十四人。 黑死病是英国唯一的大灾难。英国与欧洲其他国家不同，没有遭受像三十年战争那样的战争糜烂，这场战争毁灭了德国人口的一半以上，这个损失需要整整一个世纪才能恢复。（参看申贝尔格编的《手册》中吕梅林所著的《人口论》，这是一篇有益的论文。） 在十七世纪下半期和十八世纪上半期，中央政府尽力以关于居住的法律来阻止国内各地人口的供给与其需要相适应，这种法律规定，任何人如在某一教区居住了四十天，就归该教区管辖，但在这四十天内随时可被强制遣回原来所属的教区。 ①地主与佃农竭力防止外来的人在他们的教区内获得“居住权”，因此就对建造茅屋加以很大的留难，有时甚至将茅屋完全毁坏。因此，英国的农业人口，在到1760年为止的百年之中没有变化；同时，工业还未十分发达，因而不能吸收大量的人口。这时人口增长的缓慢，一部分是由生活水平的提高所造成的，同时一部分也是生活水平提高的原因；生活水平提高的一个主要因素，就是普通人民大多用小麦代替次等谷物作为食物。 ② ①亚当·斯密对这种法律甚为愤慨是对的（参看《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》第1篇第10章第2部分和第4篇第2章）。居住条例规定：“由于法律上的某些缺点，穷人在各教区之间来往是无从禁止的，因而他们总是力图居住在财源最大、有最大的荒地或公地可建造茅屋和有最多的森林可供他们作燃料及采伐的教区，等等。”所以，就有以下这样的命令：“任何这样的人或人们照以上所说的那样居住在任何年值十镑以下的出租房屋后四十天内……如有人控告，负责治安的任何两名法官……将这样的人或人们遣回他或他们最近居住的教区，法律上认为是许可的。”在亚当·斯密的时代以前，曾经通过几个条例，意在缓和这种法律的严酷性；但都没有效力。然而，到了1795年，又有以下的命令：在一个人实际上未被控告之前，他不应被遣回原来的教区去。 ②伊登对这个问题有一些有趣的论述，见他所著《穷人的历史》第560—564页。 自1760年以后，在故乡不能谋生的人，到新的工业区域或矿业区域去找职业没有什么困难，在这些区域里，对工人的需要往往使地方当局不能执行居住条例中遣回原籍的规定。年轻的人自由地到这些区域去，因而那里的人口出生率就变为特别高了，但死亡率也是特别高，其纯结果则是人口相当迅速地增加。在十八世纪之末，当马尔萨斯著作时，救贫法重新开始影响结婚的年龄；但这时却使结婚年龄趋于不适当地早了。连年的饥荒和对法国的战争所造成的工人阶级的痛苦，使得某种救济措施成为必要；而大量补充海陆军兵员的需要，更使慈悲为怀的人觉得应对大家庭略为增加补助，而实际的结果，使得有许多孩子的父亲往往不必工作而能得到很多好处，如果他没有结婚或只有一个小家庭，即使辛苦工作也不能得到这么多的好处。最会利用这种补助的人，当然是最懒惰和最卑鄙、最没有自尊心和进取心的人。所以，在工业城市中虽有可怕的死亡率，尤其是婴儿的死亡率，但人数还是增加很快；但在1834年通过新救贫法之前，人的品质即有改进也是很少的。自从那年以来，城市人口的迅速增加——在下一章我们就会知道——就趋于增大死亡率，但这一点已为节欲、医学知识、卫生和一般清洁的进步所抵消了。向外移民增多了，结婚的年龄略为提高，而且在全部人口中已婚的人所占的比例也略有下降；但是，另一方面，生育对结婚的比率却提高了；①结果人口差不多是稳步地日见增长。①以下就让我们稍稍详细地研究新近变化的过程。 ①但是，这种提高照数字所表明的，一部分是由于人口出生登记的改进。（见法尔所著的《生死统计》第97页）。 ①下表说明自十人世纪之初以来英国和威尔士的人口增长。1801年之前的数字，是从出生和死亡登记簿以及人头税和炉税的报告中计算出来的；1801年以后的数字，是从人口调查报告中计算出来的。从表中可以看出，1760年以后的二十年中人口数的增加，与1760年以前六十年中所增加的几乎一样多。拿破仑战争与高昂的谷物价格的压力，表现在1790与1801年之间人口的缓慢增长：一视同仁的救贫补助的结果，尽管那压力更大，表现在其后十年之中人口的迅速增加。而自1811至1821年的十年间，当那压力已经消除时，人口增长就更大了。第三栏表明每十年之初的人口，比前十年人口增加的百分比。 由于在近年中向国外移民有很大的增长，修正表中最后三十年的数字，以表明“自然增加”，即人口出生超过死亡之数，是重要的。1871至1881的十年中，和1881至1891的十年中，从联合王国向国外移民的净人数，各为一百四十八万人和一百七十四万七千人。 The seventh section continues. 在十九世纪之初，当工资低小麦贵的时候，工人阶级花于面包的费用通常占到他们收入的一半以上；因此，小麦价格的上涨大大减少了他们之中的结婚数，这就是说，大大减少了在教堂中举行结婚预告的次数。但是，小麦价格的上涨却提高了富裕阶级中许多人的收入，所以往往增加了正式结婚的次数。 ①然而，这些人不过是全部人口中的一小部分，净的结果却是降低了结婚率。 ②但是，时过境迁，麦价跌了，而工资涨了，到了现在，工人阶级花于面包的费用平均还不到他们收入的四分之一；因此，商业繁荣的变动必然对结婚率发生压倒一切的影响。 ③ ①参看法尔任户籍局长时所提出的1854年第十七次年度报告，或是他所著的《生死统计》中（第72—75页）这个报告的摘要。 ②例如，小麦的价格以先令来表示，英国和威尔士的结婚数以千来表示，1801年小麦是一一九，结婚数是六七；1803年小麦是五九，结婚数是九四；1805年两数是九○与八○：1807年是七五与八四；1812年是一二六与八二；1815年是六六与一○○；1817年是九七与八八；1822年是四五与九九。 ③自1820年以来，小麦的平均价格很少超过六十先令，而且从未超过七十五先令；接连的商业膨胀，在1826、1836—1839、1848、1856、1866和1873各年达于顶点而后下降，对于结婚率所发生的影响，与谷物价格变化的影响大约相同。当这两个原因一同发生作用时，其影响是非常显著的：如在1829年与1834年之间，由于小麦价格的逐步下跌，繁荣恢复，结婚数就从十万四千增加到十二万一千。1842年至1845年之间，当小麦价格比前几年稍低，全国的商业复兴时，结婚率再度迅速提高；而在1847年与1853年之间，以及1862年与1866年之间，在类似的情况下结婚率又有提高。 罗森爵士在1885年12月份《统计杂志》中，对1749年至1883年瑞典的结婚率与农业收获作了一个比较。农业收获的丰歉，等到一年的结婚总数的一部分决定之后才会知道；而且收获的不平均在一定程度上是由储藏的谷物来补足的；所以，个别的收获数字与结婚率不是十分符合的。但是，当几次丰收或歉收接连发生时，它对于提高或降低结婚率的影响就非常显著了。 自1873年以来，英国居民的平均实际收入虽然确有增加，但它的增加率却低于前几年，同时物价不断地下跌，因此社会上许多阶级的货币收入就不断地减少。这时，当人们考虑是否能结得起婚的时候，他们不是为货币收入的购买力之变动的细密考虑所支配，而是为他们期望能够得到的货币收入所支配。所以，工人阶级的生活水平迅速提高，也许比英国历史上其他任何时代更为迅速：他们的家庭费用如以货币计算大致没有变动，而以物品计算则增加很快。同时，小麦的价格也大大下跌，全国结婚率的显著降低往往随着小麦价格的显著下跌而发生。现在结婚率是根据以下的办法来计算的：每次结婚包括两个人，因此应当以两个人计算。英国的结婚率在1873年是千分之一七点六，到1886年降低到千分之一四点二。 1899年又上升到千分之一六点五；1907年是千分之一五点八，但在1908年只有千分之一四点九。 ① ①输出品的统计是商业信用和工业活动的变动之最便利的标志之一。奥格尔在前面引用过的那篇文章中，说明了结婚率与每人所占输出额的符合。参照勒瓦瑟的《法国的人口》第2卷第12页的图表，以及威尔科克斯在《政治学季刊》第8期第76—82页所写的关于马萨诸塞州的文章。奥格尔的研究，已为胡克1898年1月在曼彻斯特统计学会所宣读的一篇论文所扩大和修正了；胡克指出，如果结婚率有变动的话，则在结婚率处于上升时期的出生率，不是与处于上升时期的结婚率相适应，而是易于与以前处于下降时期的结婚率相适应；反之亦然。“所以，当结婚率上升时，出生对结婚的比率就下降，当结婚率下降时，出生对结婚的比率就上升。表示出生对结婚比率的曲线的移动，是与结婚率相反的。”他又指出，出生对结婚的比率的下降是不大的，这是因为私生子迅速减少的缘故。合法的出生对结婚的比率并未显著下降。 从苏格兰和爱尔兰的人口史中，可以学到许多东西。在苏格兰低地，高度的教育水平，矿产资源的开发，以及与富裕的英国邻居密切接触等因素合在一起，就使迅速增加的人口之平均收入大大增加。另一方面，爱尔兰在1874年马铃薯荒以前，人口的过度增长，以及那年之后的逐步减少，将永远是经济史上的重大事件。 比较了各国的习惯之后①，我们知道：在中欧和北欧的条顿民族国家中，结婚年龄是迟的，一部分因为男子在壮年初期要服兵役；但在俄国，结婚年龄是很早的；在俄国，至少是在旧政权之下，家庭方面力主儿子尽早娶妻以帮助家务工作，即使儿子必须暂时离开妻子出外谋生，也要早婚。在联合王国和美国没有强制兵役，男子是早婚的。在法国，正与一般的意见相反，男子的早婚不是罕见的；而女子的早婚，除了最盛行早婚的斯拉夫民族各国外，比任何有统计的国家更为常见。 ①以下的说明主要是根据已故博迪奥、勒瓦瑟（见他的《法国的人口》）和英国户籍局长（见他的1907年的报告）所编的统计。 结婚率、出生率和死亡率差不多在各国都在降低。但是，在出生率高的地方，一般死亡率也是高的。例如，在斯拉夫民族各国中，两者都是高的，而在北欧，两者都是低的。在澳洲死亡率是低的，而“自然的”增加相当高，虽然出生率是低的而且下降很快。事实上，在1881年至1901年期间，澳洲各州出生率的降低从百分之二十三至三十。 ② ②与本章主题有关的许多有益的和可供参考的资料，包括在1909年地方政治局所出版的《关于公共健康和社会状况的统计记录与图表》一书之中。