Chapter 57 2006 Feast of Capital

In the early spring of this year, Xu Zhiyuan, a commercial columnist born in the 1970s, took a copy of "Qian Mu and the World of Qifang Bridge" written by American Jerry Dun Erlin, and took a car to Wuxi, Jiangsu, the hometown of Qian Mu, a master of Chinese studies. one of the cities.Deng Erlin's book contains dozens of black-and-white photos of the Seven Small Bridges in Qian Mu's hometown of Wuxi. It was in the south of the Yangtze River around 1980. The atmosphere of the water town and the upturned eaves of ancient Chinese buildings are very friendly.It was already night when Xu Zhiyuan arrived in Wuxi, "The light rain has not stopped. The neon lights and the irritating sound of the car horn broke my reverie. Those ugly, same buildings appeared again, small buildings with several floors, white Tile walls, dark blue glass, all towns in China, no matter in the south or north, west or east, are always surprisingly similar. In this city rich in literati and elegance, there are also real estate advertisements everywhere, and the garden style has long been recognized. Abandoned, people are most enthusiastic about 'Cambridge style' and 'North American villas'. Without exception, the city center is occupied by shopping malls like Pacific Department Store, and walking along the roadside is like walking on Huainan Road in Shanghai, which has shrunk to one size. "

At the 63rd Venice Film Festival in September, "The Good Man in Three Gorges" filmed by 36-year-old Chinese director Jia Zhangke won the most popular award "Golden Lion Award". This is a realistic and slightly addictive film. Two ordinary couples Searching, arguing, and breaking up by the Yangtze River.The filming location of the film is Fengjie County, Chongqing, which has a history of 2,000 years.Jia Zhangke discovered that five months of filming could not keep up with the changes in the scene.At first, he could see an old building in the distance. After he returned to Beijing for a short time and returned to the scene, the building disappeared. Then, another piece of the building collapsed again. Even if the camera lens remained still, the space inside Already beyond recognition. "The ancient city is being demolished everywhere," Jia Zhangke said with emotion, "my camera can't keep up with this rhythm."

Perhaps, there is no country like today's China that makes people feel like a world away.For many, the place where they grew up no longer exists.The Jiangnan described by poets of the Tang and Song Dynasties has long been beyond recognition, and those "small and lonely cities" (Taiwanese poet Cheng Chouyu's poem in "Jiangnan") have now become the most important manufacturing and industrial bases in the world.The winding streets in the past have been straightened and widened, and the bluestones on the streets have been pried away and discarded. On top of them, stiff and tall buildings and shops have been built. Rain corridors, cornices, and river ports have all become images in memory.Some 400 million Chinese have been lifted out of extreme poverty over the past 20 years, an achievement largely attributable to rapid and widespread urbanization.According to the forecast of experts, the urbanization movement will continue, and it is estimated that 400 million people will move into cities in the next 20 years.This makes the country look like a construction site everywhere. "Reference News" quoted foreign sources as saying that the area of ​​newly built houses in China accounts for about 50% of the world's total, and the total area of ​​houses in one year is equivalent to the area of ​​existing houses in Russia.The construction achievements in Chongqing in 10 days are equivalent to 15 Chrysler Buildings in Manhattan, New York.

The unstoppable development impulse of China's economy has surprised all observers.It is also from this year that we will rarely see predictions about "the imminent collapse of the Chinese economy" because it has failed too many times.On the contrary, some books praising China's transformation began to sell well. James Kinch's new book "China Shakes the World" entered the best-seller list in the United States, and won the Best Book of the Year Award from the British "Financial Times" in one fell swoop."When China Changes the World" published in February by senior French journalist Eric Izralevic quickly became a bestseller in Europe. In September, Michael Moritz, a partner of Sequoia Capital, ranked first in the "National Venture Capitalist Ranking" of "Forbes" magazine, visited China. He became famous all over the world because of his investment in Yahoo, Google and Paypal.Sequoia Capital’s previous investment radius is said to be “no more than 40 miles beyond Silicon Valley”, and now it can’t wait to come to China. Moritz told reporters that if you look back 50 or 100 years later, China’s Great companies may not have been born yet.

There are too many compliments in Moritz's words, but he may be right about the fact: a great era does not guarantee the birth of even a great company. On January 5, Jiang Jiemin, general manager of CNPC, said at a meeting of heads of central SOEs: "CNPC is the most profitable company in Asia, not one of them, but number one." People can imagine his excitement when he said this And pride, but few people think that PetroChina, which is the most profitable, is already a great or even a respectable company. On the road of rapid growth, the light of large state-owned companies is the most dazzling.Since the macro-control in the spring and summer of 2004, their monopoly position in resource-based fields has been consolidated unprecedentedly.If China's economic development is a big fruit tree full of apples, then they are undoubtedly the largest and the only harvesters listed on some lush branches.At the same time, with the promotion of the modern enterprise system, the capital marketization and competitiveness of these enterprises have also been strengthened.Since the establishment of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission three years ago, the main business income of enterprises directly under the central government has increased by 78.8%, with an average annual increase of 21.4%; profits have increased by 140%, with an average annual increase of 33.8%; taxes paid have increased by 96.5%, an increase of 5 percentage points; state-owned assets have been preserved The value-added rate reached 144.4%.Now, they appear to be an "armada" that cannot be defeated.

In the past two years, global energy has been unprecedentedly tense, and international crude oil prices have risen from US$25 to more than US$70. Against this background, the profitability of China's three major oil companies in a monopoly position - PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC has surged . In 2004, Sinopec's net profit increased by 70% over the previous year. In 2005, it increased by 42% on this basis. By 2006, it increased by 28.08%.In 2005, PetroChina achieved a turnover of 552.23 billion yuan, an increase of 39% over the previous year. With a net profit of 133.36 billion yuan, the company became the most profitable machine in Asia, surpassing the blue-chip leader of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for many years—— HSBC Holdings and Japan's Toyota Motor, the most profitable company in Asia before. "Southern Weekend" reporter Chen Tao calculated an account in the article "PetroChina: How the Boss Became the Boss", "The main reason lies in the price. China's oil price follows the international price. And the international oil price continues to rise, and the cost of mining Well, take Daqing Oilfield, an important town under PetroChina as an example, the cost of mining per barrel is only 6.86 US dollars. It can be seen that PetroChina mainly earns money from oil resources. And oil resources, in theory, belong to all Chinese people The proven oil reserves owned by PetroChina are 11.62 billion barrels, and if calculated at US$90 per barrel, the total value is about 7.8 trillion yuan.” On July 14, 2006, the price of crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached a barrel The record high of 78.4 US dollars, and then continued to consolidate and attack.Chen Tao's article was published on November 1, 2007. At that time, the oil price had climbed to 96.2 US dollars, sprinting towards 100 US dollars.

What is astonishing is that under the premise of such huge profits, oil companies also break through the national price limit to sell oil to private oil stations.When interviewing the owner of a private gas station in Hainan, a reporter from CCTV learned that on April 23, 2006, his purchase price from the two major oil giants was 5,300 yuan per ton, while the state’s maximum price at that time was 4,744 yuan per ton , which is 556 yuan higher than the national price limit.Sinopec’s internal publication also reported on October 18 that when the international crude oil price was $57.65 a barrel, the price of gasoline in the United States was equivalent to RMB 4,118 a ton, while the domestic wholesale price at that time was 6,585 yuan a ton, which was higher than that in the United States. Higher by 2,467 yuan, a rate of 59.9%.What is intriguing is that in January, the Ministry of Finance still decided to provide 10 billion yuan in subsidies to the two major oil companies.The SASAC’s explanation is: “Large enterprises such as Sinopec and PetroChina do not hesitate to sacrifice their own interests in exchange for the stable development of the national economy. Many times, large central enterprises make sacrifices for the overall situation, and not many people know about them.” China News Service reported on November 14 that in the "2006 Corporate Social Responsibility Evaluation" ranking published by the US "Fortune" magazine, PetroChina ranked 63rd, ranking second to last in the list, and the last one is also a Chinese monopoly Enterprises, State Grid Corporation of China.

On August 10, China Mobile, which was listed on the New York Stock Exchange, closed at US$33.42, with a market value of US$132.58 billion, surpassing the US telecommunications company Vodafone for the first time and becoming the telecom operator with the highest market value in the world. Its operating income this year was 285.3 billion RMB 96.8 billion in profit before tax.The high profitability of this enterprise is of course also related to the monopoly pattern.Interestingly, in the past few years.The three major telecommunications oligarchs—China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom—had once had a fierce price war, especially between the two, fighting tit-for-tat in terms of user competition and price, and vicious group fights even occurred in some places.According to data from the Ministry of Information Industry, in the five years since 1998, 540 vicious cases of interconnection have been reported to the Ministry, that is to say, one occurred every four days, affecting at least 100 million users.

On November 1, 2004, a very dramatic news of changing the guard caused a sensation in the global business community.Under the auspices of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the leaders of the three major telecommunications companies changed positions: Wang Jianyu, the former chairman and president of China Unicom, was transferred to the general manager of China Mobile; Wang Xiaochu, the former deputy general manager of China Mobile, was transferred to the general manager of China Telecom; Chang Xiaobing, the general manager, was appointed as the chairman of China Unicom. Zhang Ligui, the former general manager of China Mobile, and Zhou Deqiang, the former general manager of China Telecom, will retire with immediate effect.The SASAC's explanation for this is that the lightning transposition is to "restrain the vicious competition between telecom operators that has intensified in the past few years, so as to guide rational competition between telecom operators and increase the return on investment of state-owned telecom operators."

As soon as the news was announced, it caused an uproar in the outside world, and was generally questioned and cautiously concerned by analysts in the capital market and telecommunications.Investment bank analysts believe that the use of administrative means to overcome the constraints of the capital market and destroy the governance structure of listed companies is a brutal damage to the capital market. This is a retrogression of the telecommunications industry since the telecommunications reform in 1994. Hu Shuli, editor-in-chief of Caijing magazine, who is known as the "most dangerous woman", said bluntly in the commentary "The advantages of the lightning swap of telecom executives outweigh the disadvantages", "We have heard a saying that the three major telecom companies are listed overseas-the missing It is not money, but a mechanism. The listing is to exchange for a good mechanism. It is almost the same internally and externally. So, what is the core of this mechanism? Of course, it is the corporate governance structure recognized by the capital market. However, this This time, China's state-owned major shareholders forcibly operated high-level swaps on the three major telecom companies. The entire decision-making process was not transparent, let alone discussing with the listed company's board of directors and shareholders' meeting in advance; Officials who can be transferred at will are completely ignorant of the market's "prohibition of competition" regulations and the concept of "conflict of interest". "Restriction" hurts the foundation of the corporate governance structure of listed companies. This is a fatal injury, not only hurting the three major listed companies themselves, but also bringing bad demonstration effects to many state-owned enterprises that are in the process of restructuring." Although With such fierce criticism, the threat of this changing of the guard is obvious.Since the change of guard, the three major telecom companies have quickly formed a new "oligarchic understanding", the price war that had been raging all over the place has subsided, the "industry order" has been in order for a while, and the profits of each company have of course increased greatly.

In recent years, the criticism of telecommunications monopoly has never stopped. In April, "Economic Information Daily" published an article questioning the "monthly rental fee" of the telephone. Telecom expert Gong Shengli believed that this was the product of "administrative approval" under the planned economy, and there was no national legal procedure at all.However, in the absence of "legal rules" and "supervisory procedures", hereditary inheritance has remained unchanged for nearly 30 years. At the end of 2004, the total number of fixed-line and mobile phone users in China exceeded 500 million. Telecom companies only made a profit of more than 200 billion yuan a year with only the "monthly fee". ", the total revenue exceeded 1 trillion yuan.The sum of the "monthly rental fees" of fixed-line and mobile phones over the years should be as huge as 5 trillion yuan. Kan Kaili, a professor at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, criticized the "roaming charges" of mobile phones.According to him, the cost of mobile phone roaming is practically zero.In 2005, China Mobile's roaming revenue was about 49 billion yuan, accounting for more than half of its profits.In comparison, the US telecommunications industry implements the same price for the entire network. Not only does it have no roaming fees, but there are no domestic long-distance fees.It costs only 1.67 US dollars per minute to make a transoceanic call from the United States to China, or about 0.13 yuan, while it costs 8 yuan per minute to make a call from China, a difference of more than 60 times.Kan Kaili also accused telecom companies of refusing new technologies due to the profiteering monopoly.For example, Internet telephony and wireless broadband coverage technologies that have been fully applied and popularized in Europe and the United States will greatly reduce the cost of telecommunications, and even provide free services.The blatant telecommunications monopoly allows people to see an economic principle most clearly, "Monopoly is not good or bad, only bad or worse." On October 27, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China was listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong at the same time, and its stock issuance scale reached US$19.1 billion, setting a new record for the global IPO (initial public offering).Jiang Jianqing, chairman of ICBC, told reporters excitedly in the lobby of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange: "I am very, very satisfied. Today's listing is very, very successful." By July 2007, with the rapid rise of the Chinese stock market, ICBC's stock price has been rising all the way , the total market capitalization reached an astonishing $254 billion, thus surpassing the $251 billion of Citibank of the United States and becoming the world's largest bank. The most profitable company in Asia, the world's largest telecommunications company, and the world's largest bank, when these golden laurels fell to Chinese companies one by one, no one dared to question the strength of China's economy and the power of monopoly. In September, the latest survey results of the National Bureau of Statistics showed that nearly 20 trillion yuan of total assets of state-owned enterprise groups were concentrated in monopoly areas.In industries such as entertainment, computer services, and architectural decoration, there are no state-owned or state-holding enterprise groups.In some industries with a high degree of marketization and fierce competition, the proportion of state-owned and state-holding enterprise groups is relatively low, such as less than 10% in industries such as wood processing, clothing and construction installation, textile industry, agricultural by-product processing industry, plastics industry, etc. Product industry and chemical fiber manufacturing account for less than 1/3.In the oil and gas extraction industry, telecommunications and other information transmission services, coal mining and washing industries, almost all of them are collectively occupied by state-owned and state-controlled enterprises.In key industries or fields related to the lifeline of the country's economy, such as the production and supply of electricity and heat, transportation, and transportation equipment manufacturing, state-owned and state-controlled groups account for more than 90%.From 1998 to 2005, the profits of state-owned enterprises rose steadily, and their profits increased from 21.37 billion yuan to 904.7 billion yuan, an increase of 42.3 times in just 7 years, and their cumulative profits exceeded 4 trillion yuan.From this point of view, the profit dilemma of state-owned enterprises has not only been completely resolved, but also shown unprecedented prosperity. On July 12, the US "Fortune" magazine announced the list of "World Top 500" companies in 2006. A total of 22 Chinese companies were selected, and Sinopec rose from 31 to 23, ranking first among Chinese companies; State Grid Corporation, from 40 rose to 32; PetroChina rose from 46 to 39. "China Youth Daily" in a comment titled "Inland Enterprises Selected as "Fortune 500" Makes People Shame", "How far can an enterprise develop to be called strong? In my opinion, 'a strong enterprise' 'Have at least the following factors: sustained and superior profitability, industry leadership through competition, core competitive advantages, a streamlined and high-quality talent team, strong innovation capabilities, sound rules and regulations, anti-risk capabilities, and internationalization According to these standards, we can almost judge without hesitation: among the 22 Chinese companies listed in the top 500, very few can be called "strong". However, there are different observations about this phenomenon.Li Rongrong, director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, believes that "there is almost no monopoly in industries such as petroleum, telecommunications, and electric power." On December 22, 2005, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, he said, "There is a very important One of the reasons for this is competition. It can also be said that almost no one of our industries has a monopoly. In fact, oil, telecommunications, and electric power have formed a basic competitive pattern, and the main assets of these companies are listed companies. To be precise , their equity has been diversified and socialized.” When Jiang Jianqing said excitedly on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that he was "very, very satisfied, very, very successful", a group of smiling American fund managers stood behind him. The Wall Street Journal wrote enviously in a commentary, "Opening the business profit statements for the past two years, half of the most profitable Wall Street managers are related to China. It is an indisputable fact that these investment bankers are Instead of making a lot of money, China has made almost all of it." If we say that before 2001, the super-national treatment of international capital in China was mainly reflected in tax incentives and preferential entry into industries, etc., then, after that, their biggest gain was preferential participation in the capital market-oriented operation of state-owned monopoly enterprises.We have already described the joint venture scene in the energy industry in 2002, and in recent years, larger-scale capital gains have occurred in the financial field. China's market-oriented reconstruction of state-owned banks began at the end of the 20th century. In 1998, the Ministry of Finance issued 270 billion yuan of special treasury bonds to inject capital into the four major state-owned commercial banks including Bank of China, Reduce Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of Communications; in 1999, the four major banks were allowed to divest 1.4 trillion yuan of non-performing assets.However, the first "blood injection" and divestiture did not fundamentally improve the operation and capital status of these banks.Until 2002, ICBC, which later became the largest bank in the world, still admitted in its annual report that the capital adequacy ratio was 5.54%, the total non-performing assets were 759.8 billion yuan, and the owner's equity was only 178.2 billion yuan.According to the WTO agreement, China will fully open the RMB business in 2006, so the completion of the bank reform has entered the countdown.Therefore, in December 2003, the State Council decided to use 45 billion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves to inject capital into Bank of China and Construction Bank. In 2005, it used 15 billion US dollars of national foreign exchange reserves to inject capital into Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.It is precisely because of the huge input of such powerful national resources that the four major banks have suddenly become extremely beautiful. Their Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios have all reached or exceeded 8%, and their non-performing loan ratios have dropped significantly to below 5%. The burden has been basically wiped out, and the quality of the balance sheet has improved significantly.Next, the four big banks that became "beautiful girls" went out to "road show" one after another, looking for international strategic investors, and after asset restructuring, they sought to go public. 2006 and the following 2007 were the "years of listing of banks", during which almost all important banks went public one after another.Those international financial institutions that took the lead have profited astonishingly from it, forming a "In the Mood for Love" that will never be seen in a lifetime and cannot be replicated. In May, Bank of Communications was listed in Hong Kong, and HSBC invested 14.461 billion yuan to purchase 9.115 billion shares, owning 19.9% ​​of the shares, at 1.86 yuan per share.By the middle of 2007, the market price of Bank of Communications was close to HK$10, and HSBC made a net profit of more than 80 billion yuan. In 2007, Bank of Communications’ A-shares were issued and listed, and HSBC earned more than 10 billion yuan.It is also worth mentioning that the domestic issue price of the stock is 7.9 yuan, which is 4.25 times the purchase price of foreign investors. In June, Bank of China, China's second largest bank, was listed in Hong Kong. Royal Bank of Scotland, Singapore's Temasek Holdings, UBS and Asian Development Bank purchased nearly 20% of the stock for US$5.175 billion at a purchase price of 1.22 yuan.After listing, based on the intraday price on September 7, 2007, the market value reached 233.5 billion yuan at the highest, and the four foreign-funded companies made a net profit of 193.2 billion yuan, 4.8 times the investment income.The domestic issue price of Bank of China is 3.08 yuan, which is 2.52 times the purchase price of foreign capital. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which went public in October, also showed the same situation. Goldman Sachs Group, Allianz Group and American Express invested US$3.78 billion in ICBC, acquiring about 10% of the shares of ICBC at a price of 1.16 yuan per share.After listing that year, based on the intraday price on August 15, 2007, the market capitalization reached as high as 231.3 billion yuan, and the three foreign-funded companies made a net profit of 201.8 billion yuan, an investment return of 6.84 times in less than a year.The domestic issue price of this stock is 3.12 yuan, which is 2.69 times the issue price of foreign capital.China Construction Bank, which was listed in Hong Kong in October 2005, issued 3.966 billion US dollars of shares to Bank of America and Singapore Temasek before listing, accounting for 14.1% of the total share capital, and each share was priced at about HK$0.94.The issue price of CCB's listing was HK$235 million. In September 2007, CCB returned to domestic A-share listing, and the equity market value of the two major foreign-funded companies reached 293.2 billion yuan, earning a total of more than 260 billion yuan. In addition to the above-mentioned four major state-owned banks, the recapitalization of medium-sized banks is also the same.Also in this year, Industrial Bank announced the directional sale of 2.7 billion shares to Hong Kong Hang Seng Bank, Singapore New Deal TEDA and International Finance Corporation, at a price of 2.7 yuan per share. In February 2007, Industrial Bank was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The stock price reached 62.8 yuan on that day, and the three foreign-funded companies made a net profit of about 60 billion.The bank's domestic issue price is 15.98 yuan per share, which is 5.92 times the purchase price of foreign capital. In April 2006, Deutsche Bank and Saar Oppenheim Bank invested 2.6 billion yuan to purchase about 587.2 million shares of Huaxia Bank, accounting for 14% of the total shares of Huaxia Bank, with a price of 4.5 yuan per share. According to the market value calculation in September, the net profit was 11.2 billion yuan.Moreover, the two multinational institutions surpassed Shougang to become the largest shareholder of Huaxia Bank, which is also the first Chinese bank actually controlled by foreign capital. The Chinese government's major overhaul of the vast state-owned commercial banking system is seen as "adopting a completely new approach and approach to reform that has never been tried before," and like all previous reforms, it cites diametrically opposed arguments.Some experts expressed strong doubts, believing that this model of bank reconstruction has many suspicions, such as "using national wealth to bathe commercial banks", "state-owned banks being sold at a low price", "introducing strategic investors and refusing domestic capital to enter".However, all the banks that have introduced international capital agreed with one voice, "After successfully introducing international strategic investors, the governance structure has been greatly strengthened, making it truly a modern commercial bank with international competitiveness." At the beginning of the year, Hu Zuliu, managing director of Goldman Sachs Group and an economist, went off to participate in the debate in person.He wrote in the "Economic Observer" that "international strategic investors have brought obvious short-term benefits to Chinese banks, and potential 'value-added' effects in the medium and long term, so strategic investors share Part of the future 'premium' is a reasonable 'fair sale', and there is no such thing as a 'cheap sale' of state-owned assets." In response to the question of "not open to private capital", Hu Zuliu's response was even more direct: "China has HSBC, Citigroup Or Goldman Sachs, a private investor with international experience and reputation?" Therefore, "these institutions have obvious advantages, they can directly bring the product technology and management experience of commercial banks, and they also conform to the traditional Chinese culture's concept of 'good match'" .He also wrote in a very relaxed tone, "Actually, as long as the two parties are mutually satisfied and have a happy cooperation, the value of the company can be added in the end, so why judge and interfere with the investors' choices?" The basis of Hu Zuliu's argument is "exchanging equity for experience", which is quite similar to the argument of "exchanging market for technology" back then.Over the past two decades, whenever reforms have reached a crossroads, the "monster of ownership" lurking deep in the logic of China's economic reforms will inevitably appear like a ghost, and people are swaying again and again. Efficiency and fairness, breakthrough and cost, creation and distribution are being debated. Compared with the performance of state-owned capital triumphantly and transnational capital in a duck's water, the weak private capital appears to be much weaker. Since 2006, Niu Wenwen, editor-in-chief of "Chinese Entrepreneur", found that at recent business gatherings, the most common sentence he heard was, "Who is preparing to sell the company recently?" In November, he wrote in his column wrote: "Such private inquiry has almost become a standard 'meeting greeting'. Over the past year or so, more and more entrepreneurs have sold most of their own business shares, and the pace of transactions is accelerating. Zooming in. Counting on your fingers, there are one or two mergers and acquisitions news almost every month. There are many buyers who are struggling to sell, and those who are running are also stared at by many buyers; I also met at the forum meeting this month, and several I don’t see you in a month, maybe someone will sell the company! These sold companies can be of any size in any industry and region, but the buyers are almost all multinational companies or multinational capital.” The title of Niu Wenwen’s column is “Why To sell the business".In order to solve this question, he sent reporters to investigate a merger case. On September 22, Uni-President Petrochemical Company, China's largest private lubricant manufacturer, sold 75% of its shares to Shell, making Shell the third largest company after PetroChina and Sinopec.Li Jia, general manager of Uni-President, told reporters: We are a private enterprise, without a strong resource background (base oil supply), we cannot sustain it.Uni-President Lubricant has been trapped by the raw material monopoly of PetroChina and Sinopec.In China, the most downstream retail terminal of the lubricating oil industry has been highly market-oriented, but the most upstream raw material base oil of the industry is controlled by PetroChina and Sinopec. Purchasing overseas may increase the cost by about 20%.Joining Shell can undoubtedly successfully break through the monopoly of the two domestic giants, and can avoid the risks brought about by fluctuations in raw material prices. Niu Wenwen commented based on this: “Many people sell their companies because they have to do it as a last resort. In recent years, the business environment of domestic companies has undergone great changes, and the competitive strategy and viability based on the original relaxed environment have been fatally affected. Many enterprises can no longer survive the blow. Even if they persist, they can hardly see the light at the end of the tunnel. In this case, it is necessary to find a "real cash" to support the operation of the enterprise as soon as possible. "Big brother" has become the common choice of everyone. Then, why sell to multinational capital? Because, at this moment of regulation, who will be the buyer who can "really come up with a lot of cash"? The answer is self-evident: no Affected by the domestic financial environment (wealthy), multinational capital and multinational corporations who want to enter China (willingness) under the general trend of RMB appreciation... Selling companies to multinational corporations should be the choice of entrepreneurs in a specific environment A rational choice." Just one month after Niu Wenwen made this comment, Gong Jialong, the chairman of Tianfa Petroleum and the chairman of the Petroleum Chamber of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, was charged with "disrupting financial order and forging financial bills". Into the criminal turmoil. Gong Jialong was very active in the private heavy-duty campaign in 2003. In June 2005, he initiated the establishment of China Great Wall United Petroleum Company with a registered capital of RMB 870 million. Its business covers oil and gas exploration, exploitation, refining and sales.Gong Jialong proposed to build a "China's private oil carrier", which will become the "third level" besides Sinopec and PetroChina.Although Changlian Petroleum obtained the industrial and commercial license, the four major permits for oil industry operations, namely, the refined oil wholesale license, the refined oil retail license, the refined oil import license, and the domestic mineral exploration and development license. can not get.At the end of the year, Gong Jialong was exposed to a financial scandal, allegedly using illegal means to extract 2.9 billion yuan in bank loans.After Gong Jialong was arrested by the police, the industry immediately reported that Sinopec was about to enter the "reorganization" of Tianfa Petroleum.The Petroleum Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, which is on the verge of collapse, issued a weak statement saying, "We firmly oppose non-private monopoly oil companies taking this opportunity to get involved in the assets of private oil companies, thereby affecting the reform efforts to build a harmonious development of China's oil market." Gong Jialong After the disappearance, the alliance of private oil companies that had been patched together collapsed in an instant. At the end of December 2006, in accordance with the WTO accession agreement, my country opened up the wholesale operation rights of domestic crude oil and refined oil. Must include “legal certification documents for wholly-owned or more than 50% (excluding 50%) holdings of refined oil depots with more than 10,000 cubic meters”.This provision is great news for domestic monopoly giants and multinational oil groups, but it makes weak private companies complain.Therefore, the day the ban is opened is when the weak are out.Beijing's "Beijing Times" reported that by June 2007, 90 private oil companies across the country were negotiating with 9 multinational giants, and 15 of them had signed acquisition agreements with foreign companies.The fundamental reason for the sale of these private oil companies is that there has been no fixed oil source and production is suffering. In the "capital feast" of major industry restructuring, the fate of private capital being completely marginalized is irreversible.In the "Top 500 Chinese Enterprises" list released this year, the total amount of state-owned capital accounted for an absolute 98.36% share, and the number of selected private companies was 74, whose combined assets were less than that of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. one tenth.If we compare China's top 500 companies with the "world's top 500 companies" selected by "Fortune" magazine, we can find that industries with high profitability worldwide are mainly concentrated in automobiles, food, electronic appliances, building materials, industrial and agricultural equipment, Competitive industries such as retail, trade, banking, insurance, and pharmaceuticals, while China is mainly concentrated in traditional monopoly industries such as telecommunications, steel, oil, natural gas extraction, petrochemicals, and electric power.The main reason for this situation is that these industries are still largely controlled by the government. A very obvious fact is that the growth of Chinese private companies has been under the overlook of a strong capital cluster.As a capital owner, on the one hand, the government controls policies and rules of the game, and on the other hand, it regards defending its own capital interests as the highest value orientation.According to the WTO's market opening schedule, my country's finance, insurance, communications, and even communication industries were opened sequentially. However, in the process of implementation, there was a phenomenon that the "external" opening was prioritized and the internal opening was lagging behind. priority access.In the new round of great integration that will determine the future of China's industrial structure, private companies fall into a marginalized and even forgotten disadvantaged position. A pessimistic mood has spread among private capital groups.Feng Lun, one of the "Six Vantone Brothers" who panned for gold in Hainan and the chairman of Vantone Group, wrote an article entitled "Crossing the River of History" at the end of the year.This entrepreneur with a master's degree in law and who usually laughs and jokes likes to tell half-bad jokes showed surprising insight at this time. He wrote: "Private capital has always been a subsidiary or supplement to state-owned capital. Therefore, the best The way to protect yourself is to either stay away from the monopoly of state-owned capital and settle down in a corner, do small business, actively do good deeds, and build roads and bridges; While maintaining and increasing the value of state-owned capital, management enables private capital to be recognized by mainstream social values ​​and creates a relatively safe development environment. In the future, with the establishment and development of a harmonious society, private capital will be large in number, small in scale, and employable It is characterized by a large number of people, and its living space will be limited to areas that have no conflict with state-owned capital or that state-owned capital voluntarily surrenders. In the face of state-owned capital, private capital can only always insist on cooperation rather than competition, supplementation rather than substitution, and subsidiary Only with a position of not overstepping can we advance and retreat freely and continue to develop.” This summer, a highly professional merger and acquisition case suddenly sparked an unprecedented "war of words".The most dramatic thing is that its instigator is the competitor of the merger and acquisition company, and it is launched by the "grassroots method" of blogging. On June 22, Xiang Wenbo, the executive president of Hunan Sany Heavy Industry, wrote an article on his blog "Beware of Xugong's Acquisition Case".Even he himself did not expect that it quickly became the most clicked business blog in the country within a few days.Xugong Machinery in Xuzhou City, Jiangsu Province is the largest state-owned large-scale enterprise in China's industrial machinery industry. After 2004, under the dual pressure of macro-control and fierce competition in the industry, Xugong fell into a loss. In May 2004, the Xuzhou Municipal Government publicly sold shares in XCMG to global investors. In October, the American investment institution Carlyle Group won the bid by beating Caterpillar, the world leader in machinery manufacturing.According to the agreement, Carlyle injected 375 million US dollars and acquired 85% of XCMG's shares. In January 2006, the merger and acquisition plan passed the approval of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Jiangsu Province, and the final approval from the Ministry of Commerce and the China Securities Regulatory Commission is just around the corner.At this moment, Xiang Wenbo burst out from the sky.In just over three months, he has written 46 blogs. 向文波认为，装备制造业是国家战略产业，由外资控制危机国家安全，是必须被坚决抵制的。他每天在自己的博客里对这起并购案提出种种质疑，他还曝光另一家美国投资机构摩根大通的收购价比凯雷高了10亿元，因此徐工有贱卖国有资产的嫌疑。向文波毫不讳言，已经于上年率先完成股改的三一重工也是徐工出售的竞标者之一，不过，“徐工某些人拒绝三一的真正理由只有一个：就是不卖给三一”。在他看来，徐工与三一才是“天作之合”，“徐工是工程机械行业规模最大的国有企业，是计划经济的最大成就；三一是工程机械行业规模最大的民营企业，是中国改革开放的最大成就，体制上具有极强的互补性”。他甚至在博客中提出，三一打算以高出凯雷30%的价格并购徐工。向文波的讨伐在网络上引起了空前的呼应，也有庄家据此提出了国家产业安全的命题，认为“中国应该在经济全球化背景下建立起有效的经济和产业安全管理机制”。对此不以为然的学者也大有人在，复旦大学的经济学家张军便认为：“徐工所处不是战略性行业，中国现在不是外资过多的问题。凯雷并购徐工，肯定跟安全扯不上边。” 但是，向文波的狙击见到了成效。10月16日，凯雷同意将入股比例改为50%。2007年3月，这个比例进一步下降到了45%，原定的控股意向被放弃。就在徐工并购事件风生水起的时候，另外一些并购案也遭到了类似的命运。8月14日，国内最大的炊具制造企业浙江苏泊尔公司宣布向法国SEB集团出售61%的股份。两周后，爱仕达、双喜、顺发等6家炊具企业紧急聚首北京，联合对外发布了集体反对苏泊尔并购案的紧急声明，理由是，“SEB控股苏泊尔后，必然垄断中国相关产品市场，给国内企业带来带来生存危机。”12月17日，国内第二大低压电器企业温州德力西宣布与德国施耐德公司合资组建德力西电气有限公司，各拥有50%股份。消息发布后，与德力西同处温州柳市的行业最大企业正泰集团当即起而反对，认定“这样一起看上去十分常见的合资其实是施耐德垄断并购的第一步”。 日后的事实是，除了徐工并购案被改变了控股意向外，苏泊尔和德力西两案均获得了商务部的通过。这些专业性很强的并购案，之所以会引起公众如此热烈的关注，成为“被诅咒的婚姻”，在某种程度上市社会心态的情绪性折射。人们对跨国资本在中国市场的超国民待遇原本就有不满，再加上民营企业这些年被边缘化的现状，强烈反差自然会酝酿出非理性的、十分激越的公众情绪。在这些事件上，这种情绪得到了极大的宣泄。《每日经济新闻》的财经评论员叶檀在专栏中写道，“在事实上，这些企业真正应该呼吁的是公平的并购环境，比如，给予内外资、国企民企一视同仁的税收与贷款政策，比如，提供一个开放而透明的并购平台、一个完善的游戏规则，让并购的结果符合市场合理性与法治的公平性。”很多年后，如果人们再追忆徐工并购案，恐怕不是它的内容，而是形式。向文波用博客发动舆论战，展现了草根和互联网的传播力量。他说，“如果不是利用博客这种方式，我的意见不知被扔到哪个垃圾箱了。博客把这个行业里的事变成了公共事件。如果我写信反对，说不定在政府机关的收发室就变成了垃圾，还有可能被一些领导的秘书转给了徐工……博客让决策者听到了不同的声音，这些讨论为国家政策调整提供了一个好的氛围，我觉得我们社会需要这样的机制。” 2006年的中国企业界还发生过什么让人印象深刻的大新闻吗？很多年后，人们可能想不起来。除了喧嚣一时的徐工案，好像还有一个富士康索赔事件。6月15日，《第一财经日报》发表《富士康员工：机器罚你站12小时》一文，揭露台湾首富郭台铭旗下的深圳富士康公司存在员工加班的现象。7月10日，富士康向写稿记者王佑和编委翁宝索赔3000万元，这是中国记者遭遇到的最大金额索赔。更过分的是，富士康还申请冻结了两个记者的银行账号。这一事件当即引起全国媒体的声讨，《第一财经日报》总编辑秦朔发誓绝不屈服于商业强权的恐吓，富士康一时成“舆论公敌”。8月30日，富士康把赔偿额降到象征性的1元钱，又过3日，富士康宣布与《第一财经日报》“和解”。 到2006年底，一些敏感的人们已经嗅出了景气变动的气息。开始于2004年春夏的宏观调控似乎已经结束了。在过去将近30年的改革历程中，宏观调控——在20世纪90年代之前被称为治理整顿——已成为一个具有鲜明中国特色的名词。它几乎每隔3—5年就会出现一次，而且从1981年开始，历次的宏观调控从来只宣布开始，而不通知结束。 The most important reason for the end of macro-control is that the goal it started has been achieved.通过强有力的行政干预，国有企业砸垄断行业的地位进一步得到巩固。在很多人看来，2004年前后的经济过热正是民营企业的“重型化运动”所酿成的。 2006年以来，除了国有银行的大规模上市之外，企业并购活动明显加快，一些重点的建设项目也相继宣布完成。 5月20日，历时12年建设的三峡大坝全部完工，这个人类历史上规模庞大的水利工程投资总额高达240亿美元，年均发电量将达847亿千瓦时，取代巴西伊泰普水电站成为世界最大的发电和防洪综合工程。 7月1日，全长1956公里的青藏铁路全线建成通车，该项目总投资逾330亿元。青藏铁路有960多公里都在海拔4000米以上，是世界上海拔最高、线路最长、气候条件最恶劣的高原铁路。 6月6日，国务院发布《推进天津滨海新区开发开放有关问题得意见》。天津滨海新区规划面积2270平方公里，是香港的两倍，浦东的三倍，它将成为北方中国新崛起的金融开放中心。人们将它与80年代的深圳、90年代的浦东相提并论。In its commentary, Xinhua News Agency said, "On the territory of the new round of reform, Shanghai Pudong New Area, Shenzhen and Tianjin Binhai New Area are becoming the 'troika' of my country's comprehensive reform." 这些重大投资项目的建设与开工，意味着固定资产的投资性拉动仍然是经济增长的主要模式，它让人们对未来充满了预期。而最具景气意义的标志是，已经沉寂了两年多的股市和楼市双双出现快速回暖迹象。 11月20日，上证指数在6年后重返2000点。人们应该还记得2005年的6月6日，它曾经令人绝望地跌到过998.22点。从2006年1月以来的短短10个月，指数已经悄悄上涨了近800点。涨幅超过70%。With the completion of the share structure reform, the recovery of the capital market is very obvious, and people began to withdraw money from the bank and put it into the stock market. 10月，银行储蓄5年来首次出现下降。很多股评家都开始计算，股市将在什么时候突破1万亿美元，占到全球外汇储备总额的1∕5，并首超日本成为世界第一外汇储备大国。 《华尔街日报》在评论中警告中国经济可能过热。它说，“外汇储备的过快增长将创造过多的流动性，可能引发高通胀、资产价格泡沫和商业银行的放款冲动。”它的这些提醒都将在半年后被一一证实。 The recovery of the property market is also obvious.Since the macro-control, the national real estate has been quiet for a long time. Since the beginning of the year, central cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have taken the lead in leading the rise. 5月，国务院出台6项新政策，试图遏制迅猛的房价上涨势头。其中最有特色的一条，是规定“自2006年6月1日起，凡新审批、新开工的商品住房建设，套型建筑面积90平方米以下住房（含经济适用房）面积所占比重，必须达到开发建设总面积的70%以上”。很显然，这几乎是一条无法被认真执行的法令，而事实上，它也从来没有被真正执行过。在下班年，中央政府持续出招，银行升息、限制外资炒房、有些房价增长过快的城市的相关领导被惩戒，可是尽管如此，房价上涨丝毫没有停下来的迹象。 股市，楼市的稳步双涨，是最为典型的景气信号。一个非理性繁荣的周期又开始了。 11月13日，中央电视台经济频道开始播出一部12集的电视系列专题片，它讲述的是500年来世界历史上九个大国的兴盛过程和原因。这九个大国并不包括中国，它在开播的时候，没有做任何宣传，也不是在最黄金的时间播出。然而，它很快在知识界和互联网上变成一个十分火暴的话题，专题片的解说词成为这年冬天最畅销的图书之一，盗版光碟在第一时间充斥各大城市。这部专题片有一个激动人心的片名：《大国崛起》。