Chapter 47 2000 winter after dawn

On January 1, 2000, on the land of China, the first ray of dawn of the new century shone on a small seaside town called Shitang in Wenling City, Zhejiang Province.A reporter from Xinhua News Agency described it in a lyrical and allegorical style, "The fishing lamps are lit up, casting sparkling light on the harbor, and the fishermen beat the big drums, and the sound of the drums shakes the darkness before dawn. Between the sea and the sky, from light yellow to orange, in the blink of an eye. Thousands of rays of light appeared, reflecting red in the sky, and the sky full of colorful clouds." The reporter then calculated realistically that the first ray of dawn brought a business opportunity of 120 million yuan to the unknown town of Shitang.

This not-unromantic but deeply pragmatic tone embodies the public values ​​of the period.In contrast, Southern Weekend, the weekly magazine with the largest circulation in the country, said in a more firm and emotional tone in its New Year's issue: "This is the first day of the new year... the sun is hitting your face, and the warmth remains in our hearts. There is a kind of power that is quietly hitting from your fingertips, and there is a kind of care that is gently emitting from your eyes At this moment, we have nothing to say, only blessings: let the powerless be strong, let the pessimistic move forward, let the forward continue to go, and make the happy people happier; and we will not stop for you come on.

"We keep rooting for you. Because your hope is our hope, because your suffering is our suffering. We watch you raise your hoe, we watch you wield your scythe, we watch you sweat like rain, we watch You are full of granaries. We see you displaced, we see you cry bitterly, we see you hit by torrents, we see you rebuild your home. We see you helplessly laid off, we see you grit your teeth, we see you Watching you through the wind and rain, we watch you smile... We watch you, we keep cheering for you, because we are part of you. "There is always a power that makes us cry, there is always a power that lifts our spirits, there is always a power that drives us to seek justice, love, and conscience. This power comes from you, from every one of you. one person."

The speech written by Shen Hao, a 30-year-old media person, was widely read among Chinese intellectuals and college students.People think of the article written by the 27-year-old Reformist leader Liang Qichao on a ship in exile in Japan on a dark night exactly 100 years ago, "Those who make today's boss China will be the injustice of China's old age; those who make the future For those who are young Chinese, the responsibility of Chinese youth is also...Even though there are thousands of years, there are eight wildernesses, the future is like the sea, and the future is long. Beautiful, my young China is not as old as the sky! Great, my Chinese youth has no borders with the country!" Liang Liang When he was studying ink and writing, it was a desperate moment for the powers of various countries to carve up China. Today, after a hundred years, the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has finally become a fact that makes people's blood boil.

A kind of huge century-old emotion makes the hearts of countless Chinese people sway, and they can't help it. It's the first year of a new century, and the whole world is reimagining China. Asia's most senior politician, 77-year-old Lee Kuan Yew published his autobiography "Memoirs of Lee Kuan Yew".Recalling fondly his interactions with the late Deng Xiaoping 22 years ago, he went on to predict, "China is likely to achieve its goal of becoming a modern economic power by 2050, and it will participate as an equal and responsible partner. World trade and financial activities, and becoming one of the important members of the world. If it does not shift the two major development centers of education and economy, China is likely to become the second largest trading country in the world. This is a concept of China for 50 years - modernization , confident and responsible major power.”

From the young Shen Hao to the aged Lee Kuan Yew, no one can deny that China has allowed the world to re-understand itself in just over 20 years, and every change that takes place here is amazing.However, perhaps only the people living here can really appreciate the loss, pain and hesitation that accompanied this great economic movement. On June 1 of this year, the new World Expo was held in Hannover, Germany.Yu Qiuyu, a well-known humanities writer, was doing a program "Journey to Europe" for Phoenix TV. He just passed through this city, and he made a special trip to visit the China Pavilion.He saw many people queuing at the entrance of the venue. Due to the rise of China's economy, the China Pavilion has become one of the most popular venues in the expo.However, "the China Pavilion can't find a theme, let alone a concept. As usual, there are photos of the Great Wall and Peking Opera masks outside the door. In addition to a simple model of the Three Gorges Project, there are only two things that I have a slight impression of. One is China in fantasy. The model of a man landing on the moon, and the second is an introduction to traditional Chinese medicine centered on a mannequin of acupuncture points. This is really too sloppy, and I don’t know how the audience from all over the world who lined up under the scorching sun felt.”

Such a scene made Yu Qiuyu feel very depressed. He wrote very vigilantly, "All countries are scrambling to promise to the world with the same sincerity that they will invest in innovation and creation in the new century. In contrast, the gap between the China Pavilion is the overall Yes. It’s a bit accidental that the exhibition was made like this, but behind this accident lies a kind of cultural, spiritual and ecological necessity.” Yu Qiuyu's worries are like a mess of Chinese silk, with thousands of threads, and he doesn't know where to start. In April of this year, the Nasdaq stock market in the United States, which had been soaring proudly all the way, suddenly turned around and fell without warning. The composite index fell by 40% from the highest point of 5132 within half a year. The market value has evaporated, and this value exceeds the annual income of any country in the world except the United States.AOL-Time Warner alone lost $100 billion in paper assets. Ten years ago, no company in the world had a market value that exceeded this amount.Almost all well-known Internet companies suffered heavy setbacks. Cisco's market value fell from $579.2 billion to $164.2 billion, Yahoo fell from $93.7 billion to $9.7 billion, and Amazon fell from $22.8 billion to $4.2 billion.Economist Stiglitz wrote in a not-so-dark tone, "The bubble burst, the economy fell into recession, and this outcome was inevitable—the tumultuous 1990s built on false foundations, and finally will come to an end."

With the bursting of the global Internet bubble, several Chinese companies listed in the United States were not immune. The stock price of Sina fell to a low of 1.06 US dollars, Sohu fell to 60 cents, and Netease was even worse. Its stock price was only 53 cents at one time. cents.The immature Chinese Internet economy has entered the "trough of disillusionment" early.Looking at it in the future, this may be a period of pain that must be experienced, and the budding buds can only mature after undergoing a frosty test. Looking at the situation in the world, the collapse of Nasdaq did not have a great impact on the reality of China's economy. On the contrary, it gave us the opportunity to perform in a unique way.Economist Fan Gang said in an interview with CCTV that the international economic recession that began in 2000 was mainly due to the bursting of the IT bubble, and because China is a late-developing country, our IT industry has not really synchronized with the world. Therefore, the blows and shocks received are relatively small.In this sense, it can be considered that China is a bit lucky.

This year is a good year for the Chinese economy.Driven by the good news of the upcoming entry into the WTO, the macroeconomic boom has risen significantly since the beginning of the year. The GDP exceeded 8.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 8% over the previous year, and the economic benefits of enterprises have improved.The most surprising and exciting scene is that the state-owned enterprises, which have always been sluggish, are the most eye-catching. Their number has been greatly reduced, but their efficiency has increased rapidly. They have realized a total profit of more than 200 billion yuan throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 140%. The highest level of profitability since the 1990s.All this, of course, is brought about by the strategic adjustment of "retire the country and advance the people".

The reforms, which began more than two years ago, have been proceeding with determination but without fuss.As we have described before, since the central government has not issued a specific plan for the reform of property rights clarification, privatization experiments in various places have shown their own abilities.In those fields monopolized by state-owned assets, changes are also in progress, but the way it manifests is not the same. The "Chinese Entrepreneur" in September described three changes. One is large-scale overall overseas listing. China Telecom, China Unicom, and PetroChina have successfully listed in New York or Hong Kong. , is by no means an ordinary overseas financing issue, which includes a great determination to take the initiative to change and a painful choice.The second is a large-span split and reorganization based on breaking monopoly and enhancing competition. Amidst the criticisms of the telecommunications and other industries in the world, the "oligarchs" quietly raised their scalpels against themselves.China Telecom was divided into five, China Petroleum and Petrochemical were re-separated, China Civil Aviation was brewing to restructure, China Nonferrous Metals Group was dissolved on the spot, China's five major military industrial groups were divided into five, and almost all old state-owned companies were "separated."The third is that the entrepreneurial group of state-owned companies has surfaced, showing the true qualities of entrepreneurs.As the direct operator of the two major reforms of listing and restructuring, this group, which has always been low-key and stable, has been pushed to the top, and their entrepreneurial potential has been stimulated and displayed unprecedentedly.The international media has also observed this change. In a commentary, the Asian Wall Street Journal believes that the new actions of these monopoly enterprises indicate that China's economic model is undergoing major changes.

The changing situation in the petroleum and petrochemical industry is the best example of the above judgment. In 2000, the most in-demand commodity in China was gas stations, and in some places, its price soared three or four times within a year.Gas stations are in demand not because they are particularly profitable, but because there are people looting them. The petroleum industry is a pillar industry of the national economy. According to WTO rules, once China joins the organization, it will reduce the import tariff on refined oil products to 6% within one or two years, and liberalize retail sales within three years and wholesale within five years.In order to cope with this inevitable competitive situation, in 1998, China's petroleum and petrochemical industry, which had been monopolized all the time, underwent a major reorganization and established two major group companies, PetroChina and Sinopec.According to the plan at the time, the two major companies split up the country's oil field resources and refinery assets, and in terms of business, they implemented the "Drawing the River and Governance" with the Yangtze River as the boundary. This plan seems to have formed an integrated upstream and downstream The corporate structure avoids face-to-face business competition. After the formation of the two major oil groups, they immediately launched a competition for gas stations.From the perspective of their decision makers, as long as they can acquire all the gas stations before the multinational oil giants break into China, they will naturally form a "Maginot Line of Defense", at least there is room for negotiation. In 2000, Sinopec took the lead in announcing that it would spend 25.1 billion on the acquisition of gas stations within 5 years (in fact, by the end of 2003, the cost exceeded 40 billion), and PetroChina immediately proposed a completely similar acquisition plan.According to the principle of "drawing the river and governing", the two major companies should acquire on their respective sites, but this agreement was quickly broken, and gas stations across the country immediately became targets of looting.At that time, the cost of building a gas station in an economically developed coastal city ranged from 600,000 yuan to 1 million yuan. During the acquisition war, the selling price rose due to the bidding of the two giants, and some popular stations rose within a year. up 3-4 times.According to "Southern Weekend" report, the two snatched regardless of cost and raised the cost of the price.In Sichuan, the cost of acquiring a gas station ranges from 2 million to 8 million yuan, while in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, the cost is generally around 10 million to 15 million yuan.In Shishi City, Fujian Province, Sinopec and PetroChina competed for more than a dozen rounds for a medium-sized gas station located in an important city.By the end of 2000, Sinopec announced that it had added more than 9,000 gas stations across the country, which means that it acquired nearly 30 gas stations every day, bringing the total number of gas stations in the entire group to more than 25,000.PetroChina added more than 4,530 gas stations, bringing the total number of gas stations to more than 11,350.In the next three years, most of the 80,000 gas stations across the country were captured by the two major companies, and almost all private capital withdrew.This crowding out strategy has been going on all the time. The main source of refined oil for private gas stations is the local PetroChina and Sinopec. If they want to buy oil from other sources, they do not have the right to operate wholesale and cannot obtain permission. In 2007, global oil prices continued to rise. PetroChina and Sinopec adopted the strategy of "stopping batches and guaranteeing zero", only guaranteeing direct sales and retail fuel supply to directly affiliated gas stations and franchise stations within the system, and stopped wholesale business for private gas stations. This directly leads to an "oil shortage" in a large number of private gas stations. In August, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice requiring the two major oil companies to treat companies operating refined oil products inside and outside the system equally.As a result, the two major companies launched a "dual-track price system", with "low-priced oil" exclusively for direct gas stations, and "high-priced oil" for external wholesale. In addition to taking existing gas stations into their pockets, PetroChina and Sinopec have also implemented two major monopoly strategies in the name of national interests. One is to obtain the monopoly qualification for new sites. In June 2001, the State Economic and Trade Commission and other three ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on Strictly Controlling the Issue of New Gas Stations", clearly stipulating that the new gas stations in various places will be under the unified responsibility of Sinopec and PetroChina.This strict control policy once caused dissatisfaction with the local government. Just 20 days after the notice was issued, Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province issued a government approval document, approving the construction of 24 local gas stations, of which 18 were built by companies other than the two major groups. Investors build.This article immediately caused a backlash from the oil authorities, triggering a moderate quarrel.The media’s analysis hits the nail on the head: Before the notice from the Economic and Trade Commission, all localities had the authority to build gas stations, but after the “strict control”, tax revenues mainly belonged to the central government, and the local government lost a source of revenue, so there will naturally be a rebound. The second is to carry out large-scale and compulsory incorporation and exclusion of private oil fields. In the mid-to-late 1990s, private capital had penetrated into the field of oil extraction. In Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Jilin, private owners engaged in oil extraction through "joint operation and contracted development".These oil fields are small oil wells with high production cost and very small scale, and some are even "abandoned oil wells" abandoned by state-owned oil fields.The existence of these private owners is considered to be the source of disrupting the order of the oil market and creating environmental pollution.Therefore, incorporation and rectification have become a strategic measure. "Chinese Entrepreneur" disclosed a case that can illustrate the actual situation. The Yiqi Creek Oilfield located in Kuqa County, Xinjiang is the first abandoned oil field in China. Since 1958, after nearly 30 years of exploitation, a total of 286 wells have been drilled, with a cumulative production of more than 900,000 tons of crude oil.Due to the gradual reduction of crude oil production in the oilfield, which is close to depletion, it was determined by PetroChina Tarim Oilfield Branch to have no industrial exploitation value and classified as "waste oil well". In 1998, PetroChina withdrew from the Yiqi Creek Oilfield, and soon, a private company named Jinhe entered the oilfield. It reached a cooperation intention with the local government to extract oil from nearly 300 abandoned oil wells, and can produce 40,000 tons of oil every year. about.Jinhe produced oil from the "waste oil well", which made CNPC quite displeased. The Tarim Oilfield Branch reported to the autonomous region government many times that the cooperation between the Kuqa county government and Jinhe Company was an act of ultra vires management of oil and gas resources development. It violated the "Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China" and violated PetroChina's prospecting rights.Just like the gas station incident in Jiaxing, the oil company's monopoly on oil fields also caused a backlash from local interests. In July 2002, PetroChina submitted a report to the State Economic and Trade Commission, opposing the plan proposed by the Shaanxi Provincial Government to reorganize the private oil fields in northern Shaanxi.According to the report, private and county-level drilling and production companies in the northern Shaanxi area exploited indiscriminately, and cooperated with private oil bosses to seize oil fields of more than 9,000 square kilometers under CNPC. Disputes between the two parties have occurred many times in the past 10 years, causing more than 150 groups. The clashes resulted in many casualties.The Shaanxi Provincial Economic and Trade Commission also submitted a report to the State Economic and Trade Commission, arguing that the local oil development has embarked on a scientific, standardized, and orderly track, with the local oil company and the first oil field in modern China—the Yanchang Oil Field as an example The main local oil companies have the ability to develop oil fields reasonably.The report from Shaanxi Province also stated that CNPC took advantage of the national resource management mechanism and its own convenience to preemptively register most of the oil resources in northern Shaanxi, and even registered the land parcels of the Yanchang Oilfield under its own name, resulting in idle resources. carry out substantive development.The report said that without oil, local finances in northern Shaanxi would be in trouble again. After realizing dual control over oil field resources and sales channels, China's two major oil companies have accelerated the pace of overseas listing and cooperation with global oligopoly oil companies. In April 2000, PetroChina was listed on the H-share market in Hong Kong. On October 18, Sinopec was listed on the stock exchanges of Hong Kong, New York and London. In July 2001, it successfully issued 2.8 billion A shares in the domestic A-share market, becoming the largest blue-chip stock in the Chinese stock market.According to reports, before the stock issuance, Sinopec executives visited Hong Kong's richest Chinese man and chairman of Hutchison Li Ka-shing three times. The latter was "moved by sincerity" and immediately decided to buy US$100 million of Sinopec's H shares.The issue price of Sinopec shares caused a controversy at the time. When the company issued 16.7 billion H shares, the price was 1.6 Hong Kong dollars. When it issued A shares, it was priced at 4.22 yuan. A shares were 2.48 times that of H shares. This kind of internal and external practice has caused great controversy among shareholders.During the listing process, the overseas strategic investors of PetroChina and Sinopec were all conducted in a targeted manner. In addition to the Li Ka-shing family in Hong Kong, the American "stock god" Buffett and Goldman Sachs investment, there are also the world's most important oil giants. , Exxon Mobil, Shell and BP Group have become strategic investors of Sinopec.The three purchased half of Sinopec's global offering shares, and BP also spent US$620 million as a strategic partner to purchase about 3.5 billion shares of PetroChina, accounting for nearly 20% of the outstanding shares at that time.According to calculations by Ye Tan, a financial observer, by March 2007, the price of Sinopec's H shares was HK$6.3, equivalent to creating wealth of US$10 billion for overseas investors.In a sense, these overseas investors have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of China's reform achievements.By October 2007, Buffett had sold all of his PetroChina shares, making a total profit of US$3.55 billion, or about HK$27.7 billion. After forming a blood relationship in capital, those multinational oil companies have successively obtained the qualifications to enter China's refined oil market. BP Group was approved to jointly build 500 gas stations with PetroChina and Sinopec respectively in Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces, and ExxonMobil and Shell were approved to jointly build 500 gas stations with Sinopec in Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces respectively.Since then, BP has signed an agreement with PetroChina to set up 800 joint venture gas stations in Fujian, and Sinopec has also signed an agreement with Exxon Mobil to set up 600 gas stations in Fujian. It is through this series of very strong, planned and efficient strategic adjustments that the two major state-owned oil companies have taken a new look. As global energy prices continue to rise in the future, they have successively become "China's most profitable enterprises."This dazzling change in the petrochemical field vividly embodies two logics of change in the monopoly field: the first is "monopolizing in the name of the state and making profits in the name of the market". Form an "internal competition pattern" among state-owned enterprises, and private capital is completely excluded from the game; the second is to speed up capitalization operations under the premise of monopoly and combine with oligarchy multinational capital. Such a "Chinese story" happened in all monopoly industries controlled by state-owned capital. It will be challenged in 2003 and then solidly consolidated in 2004. Autocracy brings efficiency, and monopoly produces benefits.In fact, from the very beginning, people questioned the phenomenon of huge profits in monopoly industries.The first to be targeted were the telecommunications companies associated with every household. In 1999, China Telecom achieved revenue of 229.5 billion yuan, an annual increase of 25%.Some experts raised doubts about the charging system of telecommunications.According to the regulations on telecommunications charges at the time, consumers had to pay for calls made for less than 3 minutes. Some people calculated that the annual overcharging of telecommunications companies was as high as 26.6 billion yuan.Under the pressure of public opinion, the telecommunications department held a tariff hearing, which was filmed and broadcasted by CCTV.Under aggressive questions from media reporters, the telecommunications official replied impatiently, “I really don’t have the energy to explain the adjustment details to everyone.” In March of this year, 107 professors from Zhejiang University jointly sent a letter to the government and the media, complaining about another charging system of the telecommunications company - "time charging starts when the other party answers the phone".Professor Zheng Qiang, the initiator of the joint letter, said that we had a lot of calls that got through but no one answered them. We hung up by ourselves, but were charged by the telecom bureau.They provided a thick list of call charges. In a list of 50 long-distance call records, there were 5 calls shorter than 30 seconds.There is also a detailed list, in which "ultra-short and long calls" appeared 10 times in 23 calls.The careful professors also conducted a special test. They made multiple long-distance calls that "ringed" but were not connected. As a result, they were all charged on the long-distance statement printed by the telecommunications bureau.Professor Zheng did a simple calculation. There are more than 2 million phone users in Hangzhou. If they make one long call that is not answered once a month, the ringing fee will be 1.2 million yuan, which is more than 10 million yuan a year. .The professors want an "account" for the unexplained overpayments. Hangzhou Telecom Bureau had a dialogue with 12 professor representatives.Facing my old teacher, the person from the telecommunications bureau gave an explanation: "The ultra-short-time charge may be caused by the fax machine, recording telephone, server, etc. on the other party's line, or that the other party's hand slipped, and the phone just picked up. There must be no problem with Hangzhou Telecom." The conversation broke up badly, and a professor joked, "There are computer experts, automatic control experts, and communication system experts among us, why the answers given by the students are not our professors What for them?" Tariff adjustments and "ringing news" were lively for a while, but in the end they were nothing.In the end, telecom companies' price loosening was driven by market competition. In December 2000, in order to support the declining railway transportation department, the State Council approved the Ministry of Railways to establish China Railway Communication Information Co., Ltd., and licensed it to carry out fixed-line communication services.As soon as China Railcom was established, the first move to open the door was to announce that the initial installation fee for the telephone was 600 yuan.In the past few years, the initial telephone installation fee has always been the most stable and lucrative part of the telecom company's profits. Under the appeal of consumers for many years, this fee has been reduced from 5,500 yuan to 1,250 yuan, but it refuses to go down again.This time China Railcom rushed in, and the strategy naturally needed to be adjusted. China Telecom quickly responded by announcing the cancellation of the initial installation fee.Tietong's plan to snatch a fortune from the "monopoly bowl" came to naught, and unexpectedly brought benefits to consumers all over China. If the strategic reorganization of monopoly industries has been quite effective, then how to effectively manage state-owned enterprises is still a headache.As a result, some very "black humor" news emerged one after another.Another reason for the success of state-owned enterprise restructuring is the preferential tax incentives.According to the data of "China Fiscal Yearbook" (2001), from 1985 to 2000, the total national fiscal revenue increased from 204.079 billion yuan to 1,258.151 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 12.89%. The income tax of state-owned enterprises increased from 59.584 billion yuan in the same period To 82.741 billion yuan, an average annual growth rate of only 2.21%, far below the growth rate of total tax revenue. In June of this year, the State Administration for Industry and Commerce suddenly issued a policy, announcing that if a state-owned enterprise wants to advertise, the amount of advertising must be controlled at 2% of the pre-tax proportion of the enterprise's sales revenue.This "ban" is said to prevent state-owned enterprises from placing advertisements indiscriminately and wasting state property.In the past two years, the advertising superstar in China's consumer goods market is a state-owned pharmaceutical company called Harbin Pharmaceutical Group in Northeast China.Before 1999, it was still a little-known medium-sized pharmaceutical factory. Its total assets were only 100 million yuan, and its annual research and development expenses never exceeded 2.5 million yuan.However, starting from this year, it suddenly implemented an advertising bombing strategy. In 1999, it invested 700 million yuan, and in the first five months of 2000, it invested 570 million yuan, becoming China's largest advertising giant in one fell swoop.The popularity and sales of Harbin Pharmaceutical have also risen sharply. Under its demonstration effect, state-owned pharmaceutical factories and electrical appliance factories all over the country have launched advertising campaigns. When the "advertising quota order" was issued, the enterprises suddenly became chaotic. In just over half a year, the Industrial and Commercial Bureau had to make supplementary clauses, announcing that pharmaceutical, food, daily chemical and home appliance companies, which are the most impulsive industries for advertising, can increase the proportion of advertising. to 8%.Soon, this "limit order" was never mentioned again. There are, of course, more ridiculous policies than advertising quotas.In order to prevent state-owned pharmacies from competing with each other for business, some local drug regulatory departments have issued a special policy, stipulating that "the second retail pharmacy is not allowed to open within 500 meters." Zhou Qiren, a professor at Peking University, asked a question, "The government How to ensure that the layout is reasonable if it is more than 500 meters away? It is to open 5 stores within 50 meters, whether to make money or lose the self-owned pharmacy operators to bear the consequences, why should the government bother?" Professor Zhou's question is very powerful, but there are still people He raised a rhetorical question, "If those state-owned pharmacies are losing money, shouldn't the government clean up their ass?" These two questions brought the contradiction that has lasted for more than 20 years to the system. This kind of regulatory thinking of the drug regulatory department seems ridiculous, but its internal logic is very clear, that is, to prevent state-owned enterprises from "killing" each other in monopoly or semi-monopoly industries. , The palms and backs of the hands are full of flesh, and the result of competition is the loss of state-owned assets. The optimal state is of course "friendship first, competition second".The story that happened in the aviation industry is very typical. Since the 1990s, the enthusiasm for establishing airlines in various places has soared, and 34 state-owned airlines, large and small, have emerged successively, becoming the country with the largest number of airlines in the world.In order to grab customers, these companies have launched discounted sales.It is said that in 1998, the major airlines made a total of 5 billion yuan in profits. By the beginning of 1999, the entire industry was in a loss. The Civil Aviation Administration finally couldn't bear it. It used "competing discounts to cause a huge loss of state-owned assets, which must be stopped." For this reason, a "ban on discounts" was issued in February of this year, strictly ordering all companies not to discount any more.This caused an uproar in the public opinion, accusing the Civil Aviation Administration of putting the interests of the industry above consumers and interfering with market competition through administrative means. However, the effect of the "ban on discounts" was immediate. Only half a year later, the Civil Aviation Administration announced that the entire industry had turned around in six months, with a cumulative profit of 260 million yuan and a year-on-year loss reduction of 470 million yuan. 700 million yuan of state-owned assets.However, the "ban on discounts" cannot change the existing competitive landscape in the aviation industry.It didn't take long before the airlines changed the open book into a hidden book in order to grab business, and gradually returned to the original state. The Civil Aviation Administration made repeated orders, but it couldn't stop the pace of business laws. In the first half of 2001, the whole industry reported another 20 billions of losses.While the civil war in state-owned airlines continued, some private business owners have quietly entered. Spring International Travel in Shanghai is a private company engaged in tourism business. Since 1994, it has become the national leader in this industry. Chairman Wang Zhenghua, who was a pilot, started to enter the air charter business in 1997. He relied on his own business of tour groups. Resources, boldly charter some small and medium-sized airlines, the fares of which are of course much lower than those of state-owned companies on the same route.In order to evade the no-discount policy, Wang Zhenghua intentionally blurred the price, and he packaged the tour guide fees, accommodation fees, and air tickets for tourists.The authorities, though very annoyed, could do nothing against him.Later he admitted, "In fact, our internal pricing is very low. For example, the air ticket price from Shanghai to Xiamen is even lower than the hard sleeper train fare." The first private entrepreneur engaged in regional aviation contracting business was Wang Junru from Wenzhou , In July 1991, 25-year-old Wang Junru contracted the charter flight route from Changsha to Wenzhou, so he was called "daring". In November 2004, Wang Junru died of illness, and the company was taken over by his younger brother Wang Junjin. In June 2005, Juneyao Group was approved to establish Juneyao Airlines. ∕∕ "Forbidden News" was still happening until 2006.In November of this year, Spring Airlines launched a "one-yuan special air ticket" from Beijing to Jinan. The Jinan City Price Bureau issued a fine of 150,000 yuan and banned Spring Airlines' route from Shanghai to Jinan.The basis for its law enforcement is the "Limited Discount Order" issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China in April 2004: the price of air tickets for domestic routes shall not exceed 25% above the specified benchmark price, and shall not exceed 45% below.In fact, some domestic airlines and foreign-funded airlines entering the country have also broken through the promotional fares of this rule, but none of them were fined. In addition to the reorganization incidents in the monopoly industry, there are three most explosive news in the Chinese business world this year. One is the cracking of the Xiamen Yuanhua smuggling case. exposure. The Yuanhua case is considered to be the largest economic crime case since the founding of New China. On November 8, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the Ministry of Supervision notified the society of the investigation and handling of this huge smuggling case. The principal criminal, Lai Changxing, was born in Qingyang Town, Jinjiang City in 1958.Jinjiang was one of the areas with the most active commodity circulation and the most rampant smuggling in the early days of reform and opening up.Like many local businessmen, Lai Changxing went into business without graduating from elementary school.He started by running a textile accessories factory, and later set up a clothing factory, an umbrella factory and a printing factory.Since 1994, he has built a large-scale and well-organized "smuggling kingdom" in Xiamen.It was found that from 1996 to the first half of 1999, Lai Changxing smuggled more than 4.5 million tons of refined oil, more than 450,000 tons of vegetable oil, more than 3 million boxes of cigarettes, 3,588 cars, and a large amount of Western medicine raw materials, chemical raw materials, textile The value of raw materials, electronic machinery and other goods was as high as RMB 53 billion, and tax evasion was RMB 30 billion. Such a huge amount of smuggling would have been impossible without the assistance of officials. After the Yuanhua case happened, Lai Changxing's various methods of wooing officials were exposed.In order to please Li Jizhou, vice minister of public security and deputy leader of the National Anti-Smuggling Work Leading Group, Lai Changxing sent a one-time remittance of 500,000 US dollars to his daughter in the United States, and also sent 1 million yuan to Li Jizhou's wife's company.He invested more than 1.6 million yuan to buy a villa for the son of Xiamen vice mayor Lan Fu who was studying in Australia. He also gave more than 10 million yuan to take care of a mistress for Xiamen customs chief Yang Qianxian, and bought villas in Hong Kong and Xiamen for his concubine.Yuanhua has an ordinary 7-story brick red building on Huaguang Road, Huli District, Xiamen City, which is called "Red Building" by the locals.Lai Changxing decorated it luxuriously, with private rooms, sauna, KTV and other entertainment facilities, which are specially used to entertain officials from all walks of life. Many deputy secretaries of the municipal party committee, deputy mayors and bank presidents of Xiamen are frequent visitors to the Red House. Under Lai Changxing's win over, many government departments in Xiamen "fell" one after another.Xiamen Customs is almost opened for the Lai family. Yuanhua has a special transfer point "Haixin Storage Yard". Container number list, hollow out the smuggled goods containers with high tax rates such as cigarettes and automobiles, and then fill them with low-rate goods such as wood pulp and polypropylene that are prepared in advance and conform to the name of the declared goods, and submit them to the customs for inspection after completing the formalities .After such a "reversal", the smuggled goods entered the customs smoothly.The Xiamen Commodity Inspection Bureau provided Yuanhua with a false "authentication certificate" to "legalize" the smuggled goods.Some local public security organs in Fujian illegally obtained certificates of fines and confiscations for smuggled cars, causing thousands of smuggled cars to flow into the domestic market.Some financial institutions provided a large amount of loans to Yuanhua. The Xiamen branch of the Bank of Communications alone issued 25 letters of credit in violation of regulations, with a total amount of US$38.41 million. When the Yuanhua case was notified by the central government, Lai Changxing fled to Canada in August last year. In 2001, more than 300 people were prosecuted and convicted in the Yuanhua case. Among them, Yang Qianxian, director of Xiamen Customs, was sentenced to death. Sentenced to death with reprieve or life imprisonment.After Lai Changxing fled, he filed a refugee application with the Canadian government, and the Chinese government has been working hard to extradite him back to China.The Yuanhua case shocked both at home and abroad. It showed the determination and action of the Chinese government to fight smuggling with all its strength. In the private sector, people have witnessed the dark side of government-business collusion from one side. In August 2001, in order to warn the whole people, the relevant departments held the "Exhibition on Investigating and Handling the Extraordinary Smuggling Case in Xiamen" in Lai Changxing's "Red Mansion".In just over 50 days, nearly 200,000 people and more than 1,300 groups visited the "Red Mansion Exhibition", making it the most popular "attraction" in Xiamen.People here see the sauna massage room, dance hall and gift storage room where Lai Changxing corrupted officials, as well as the "fighting hall" where he trained thugs. On the first floor, there are 4 cars that Lai Changxing bought from Hong Kong with a huge sum of money at auction. The bulletproof car that the state leaders have ridden in and the red Porsche sports car bought by the Lai family's children to a popular female singer.After nearly two months of this exhibition, the "Red House" announced that it was "permanently closed." 一度无限风光的中国彩电业陷入全行业亏损，这是很多人难以理解的现实，其因果由来实在跟企业家们的战略思考有关。 自从1995年以来靠价格战击退跨国公司之后，国内的几大巨头没有在核心技术的创新上动脑筋，而是继续实施低价策略和玩弄“概念创新”。1998年底，行业老大、四川长虹的倪润峰突然想出一个奇招，他试图通过控制核心部件的方式来一举击败所有对手。在彩电制造中，彩色显像管占总成本的70%。倪润峰秘密地与国内八大彩管厂签订了垄断供货协议，将国产76%的21英寸、63%的25英寸和几乎所有29英寸及29英寸以上大屏幕的彩管共计300万只收归长虹。这个釜底抽薪式的消息一被披露，当即引起轩然大波，长虹股票大涨，业内同行一时陷入绝望般的恐慌。他们纷纷上告信息产业部，主管部门也对长虹的这种做法颇有微词。1999年4月，长虹在南京再次宣布大幅降价，幅度在10%-20%，其他彩电公司被迫迎战跟进。在一次行业会议上，康佳的陈伟荣怒斥说，“长虹的做法是逼着大家一起跳楼。”陈伟荣的大学同窗、创维的黄宏生劝导倪润峰说，“一个健康的生态环境，应该是先有森林，后有大树。”后者则霸气十足地回答说，“我的观点是，先有大树，后有森林。” 这一仗杀得是天昏地暗，空前惨烈，但是清扫战场谁也没有想到，最大的输家竟然是挑起事端的四川长虹。倪润峰的封侯一招看上去既狠又准，但是老谋深算的他却漏算了两件事情：一是彩管公司的信用，它们多年来受品牌制造商的压榨，此次乾坤颠倒，成了争抢的香饽饽，怎肯错过百年一遇的发财机会，于是纷纷加大产能，有钱便是客，暗地里向其他彩电企业大量供货；二是华南地区的走私彩电管因此火暴。这两条灰色渠道的存在，让掏出真金白银巨资囤积彩管的倪润峰看上去像是一个最大的“傻瓜”。长虹背上了沉重的财务压力，但是“断源战略”宣告失效，价格战自然也无法收到决定性的成果。经此一役，长虹元气大伤。2005年5月，倪润峰被撤换下台。南方的TCL乘机发力，于2001年成为新的彩电业盟主。 事端制造者长虹失利，彩电市场的价格战却已经一发而不可收。自倪润峰下台后的一年里，各大厂家先后发动了6轮降价战，彩电价格一降再降，好比军阀混战，终于杀到所有的参与者丢盔卸甲。第二个战败的是与长虹、创维和TCL并称“四大家族”之一的康佳，由于价格陡降，康佳不堪再战，2000年，公司宣布亏损近8亿元，陈伟荣辞职出走。 对陈伟荣的离去，同学黄宏生十分伤感，他对记者说，“现在做彩电真的没有意思，一台电视机的平均利润不到10元钱，因此卖彩电还不如卖白菜赚得多。”把彩电与白菜放在一起比喻，是黄宏生的即兴之言，但是这种耻辱性的新闻真的就很快发生了。2001年8月，武汉媒体报道，该市汉阳商场和21世纪购物中心推出了“按斤论两卖彩电”的促销活动。商场内的长虹、康佳、海信、海尔、TCL、金星、乐华、熊猫等十多种品牌的几款29英寸彩电分别摆在商场营业大厅，彩电上插着“每公斤30元”的醒目标签，顾客里三层、外三层地抢购着。一台29英寸的彩电包装盒标着净重52.5公斤，论斤算来，仅售1575元，比原价又降了近300元。商场负责人称，“论斤卖彩电”乃厂商变招，这些彩电都是新近出厂的一线品牌机，质量绝对可靠。据报道，“这一招还挺灵，彩电论斤卖以来，日均销售彩电400台左右，销售量较以往成倍增长。” 这样的彩电业无疑已走进了死胡同，价格战带来了双重危机：一是财务危机，巨大的库存、越来越多的应收账款正在侵蚀着所有的企业；另一个是创新危机，没有力量投入研发，当然也没有机会分享高技术的利润。2000年，全国彩电企业生产近3000万台，库存累计600万台，首次出现了全行业的亏损。据信息产业部的官员透露，彩电价格战使整个行业的实际损失起码高达200亿元。与之形成鲜明对比的是，洋彩电销售额和利润率呈强势反弹趋势，市场占有率从过去的10%左右，一举跃升到30%以上。在高价位市场上，国产彩电更是彻底失去控制权。5年前的辉煌战果，几乎被挥霍一空。发生在彩电业的技术空心化现象，在家电业普遍存在。格力电器的朱江洪讲述过一个故事：2000年前后，格力与海尔、春兰竞标重庆一家体育馆的中央空调项目，而其实这三家中国最重要的空调企业都没有能力制造这种空调。为了显示自己的能力，他们都不约而同地向拥有该技术的日本三菱公司询价。最终格力中标，朱江洪把三菱空调买回后拆了商标，再自降100万元出售。朱江洪赴日向三菱购买这项技术，当场就遭到拒绝。三菱说，我们为此研究了16年，你们中国人认为用钱就能买走呢？朱江洪深以为耻。 10月，《财经》杂志刊登封面调查《基金黑幕》，将中国股市中一个刚刚诞生的光鲜神话一下子刺破了。 自上年以来的牛市行情还在持续中，庄家们的表现仍然无比凶猛和肆无忌惮。就在人们开始对此颇为厌恶的时候，公众舆论开始传播这样一个理念：有一股健康而稳定的力量存在，那就是刚刚兴起的基金公司。跟那些贪婪的私人庄家不同，基金公司正以科学、负责及可持续的专业精神成为资本市场上值得信赖的势力。 Since 1998, each batch of funds has come to the market, all bearing the love of the regulators and the praise of the public opinion, and it is regarded as an important measure to introduce the experience of mature western markets and cultivate institutional investors.与这部企业史上所有令人炫目的神话一样，它很快被证明是一个新的谎言。 刺破神话的是一个叫赵瑜纲的无名小卒。他是上海证券交易所监察部的研究人员，为了对基金管理的现状做一个例行的调研，他以1999年8月9日到2000年4月28日为区间，对国内10家基金管理公司旗下的22个证券投资基金进行了追踪，将它们在上海证券市场上大宗股票交易的汇总记录细致分析，写出了《基金行为分析》和《基金风格及其评价》两份报告。就是在这两份报告中，赵瑜纲披露了投资基金大量的违规、违法操作事实。报告是在5月份形成的，很快就以非正式的方式流传到了社会上。当《财经》记者找到赵瑜纲的时候，他正垂头丧气，甚至有点后悔自己搞的这件事。就在6月27日，交易所监察部给了他一个严重警告处分，理由是“未经批准，擅自将工作中知悉的内部信息外泄他人”，违反了《上海证券交易所保密工作条例》。 在主编胡舒立的坚持下，《财经》以选编的方式刊发了赵瑜纲的报告，这篇题为《基金黑幕》的长篇文章对中国基金市场提出了6个方面的重大疑问。 第一是稳定市场的作用未被证明。定量分析显示，基金在大盘处于下跌期中，一般借高位反弹减仓；而上升期中，则一直处于显著的减仓过程中。因此，“发展证券投资基金，究竟为谁服务的问题，可能目前还不十分明确”。 第二是基金“对倒”制造虚假成交量，所谓“对倒”是指某股票处于弱势时，即使割肉出售也未必有人买，做鬼的办法就是自己做托，这是庄家建仓和炒作题材时惯用的伎俩，基金坐庄也“按例操作”。根据赵瑜纲的调查，大部分基金都有过“对倒”行为。 第三是利用“倒仓”操纵市场。“倒仓”是指甲、乙双方通过事先约定的价格、数量和时间，在市场上进行交易。基金公司利用旗下拥有多只基金的条件，常常互相倒仓，既解决了先上市基金的流动问题，又不影响甚至可以提高净值。 第四是质疑基金的独立性。报告认为，“从基金双向倒仓时的肆无忌惮看，人们很难相信在机制上并未独立运作的基金与其股东和发起人之间没有更严重的违法联手坐庄行为。”《财经》记者还描写了一个在市场口口相传的景象：“在热气腾腾的桑拿浴房中，谈判的双方'坦诚相见'”，没有录音或者泄密的可能，希望基金接盘的机构开出价码，“每接我一股，我给你个人一块钱”。 第五是肆意玩弄“净值游戏”。报告破解了之前人们的一个误解，以为股价在高位下跌且无量，就把庄家也给套住了。其实，在很多情况下并非如此。因为如果庄家在上升的阶段反复洗盘，即经常高抛低吸，做阶段性的盈利，而且时间足够长，到了最后，它的成本已经极低。此时，即使股价暴跌，它仍有一倍甚至几倍的利润。 " 第六则是“投资组合公告”的信息误导愈演愈烈。 赵瑜纲调研的10家基金管理公司分别是：博时、华安、嘉实、南方、华夏、长盛、鹏华、国泰、大成和富国。 此文一出，顿时平地掀起千重巨浪。先是财大气粗的基金公司勃然大怒。10月16日，被点名的10家基金管理公司联合发表声明，指斥《基金黑幕》一文以耸人听闻的形式刊发颇多不实之词和偏颇之论，它们说，“中国的基金公司已经是国内监管最严格、制度最完善、透明度最高的投资机构之一。《基金黑幕》依据的资料数据采样不准确，研究方法不科学，对基金的交易行为的判断与事实严重不符。该报告的作者和《财经》严重违背了新闻客观、公正的职业操守，对中国基金业两年来的试点成果给予全盘否定，是可忍孰不可忍。”10大基金公司因此强烈表示要追究作者和媒体的诽谤责任。被质疑职业操守的胡舒立毫不退缩，她当即在三家证券报上发表声明，称《基金黑幕》资料具有正当来源和可靠依据，符合客观、公正的事业原则。被夹在中间最难受的人是高西庆，这位12年前满怀激情地回国筹建中国资本市场的华尔街律师此时已经身居高位，时任中国证监会主席。他公开表态说：“证券市场经过一定阶段的发展形成的特定市场文化，不是一夜之间就可以改变的。其实这一现象（指基金灰色操作现象）与市场发育水平有关，可能不全是基金管理公司本身的问题，不可能一蹴而就，必须在发展中解决。”而在私下里，他对基金公司说，“人家要是报道错了，你去告她。如果没错，就没什么说的了……” 如果这场“口水官司”仅仅局限在对基金的学术批判上，它可能只是一个“茶杯里的风波”，谁也没有想到的是，一位重量级的经济学家突然卷了进来，而他的矛头直指中国股市。 这个主动出击的学者是时年70高龄的吴敬琏。在10家基金管理公司发表联合声明的半个月后，吴敬琏挺身而出。在接受中央电视台《经济半小时》和《南方周末》的采访时，他对基金事件发表了自己的看法，而在此前，经济学界全部噤声。外表谦和温润的吴教授此次语出惊人，他直接将股市比喻成了“赌场”。 他说，“有的外国人说，中国的股市很像一个赌场，而且很不规范。赌场里面也有规矩，比如你不能看别人的牌。而我们的股市里，有些人可以看别人的牌，可以作弊，可以搞诈骗。坐庄炒作、操纵股价可说是登峰造极。现在中国市场上操纵股价的一类是中介机构；一类是上市公司的某些知情人，即有内幕消息的人；还有一类就是资金的供给者，可以是银行，也可以是其他的资金供给者。他们共同密谋以后就低价吸纳。炒作的办法大概有两种：一种是关联机构互相炒作、互相买卖，买卖非常频繁，把价格炒上去。另外一种就是由有关的上市公司放出利好消息，然后把股价拉升上去。当他们发现有中小投资者或局外的大投资人跟进的时候，就偷偷地跑掉，把后来跟进的人套住，这时股价就不断地往下跌。” After lashing out at market makers and funds, Wu Jinglian pointed directly at the positioning of China's capital market.他批评道，“不要把股市变成寻租场，由于管理层把股票市场定位为为国有企业融资服务和向国有企业倾斜的融资工具，使获得上市特权的公司得以靠高溢价发行从流通股持有者手中圈钱，从而使股市变成了一个巨大的'寻租场'，因此必须否定'股市为国企融资服务'的方针和'政府托市、企业圈钱'的做法。” 吴敬琏的勇敢和率直让他的声望达到了顶峰。12月，中央电视台第一次评选“CCTV中国经济年度人物”。在10位当选人中吴敬琏以唯一学者的身份入选，在网络票选中他遥遥领先，排在“人气排行榜”首位。在获奖者专访中，主持人问白发苍苍的吴敬琏，“我们曾经把冰心老人称做是中国文坛的良心，那么现在也有人把您称做是中国经济界的良心。在今天的中国社会中，'经济'这两个字无处不在。大家都在讲钱，都在讲创造财富和盈利，良心这两个字有什么用处？”后者答道，“中国老话就有：君子爱财，取之有道。市场经济它需要一个人和人之间的信任关系，没有这样一种信任关系，如果靠尔虞我诈是发展不到现在的市场经济的。”在专访的最后，主持人颇有感慨地说：“旧的一年过去，好在我们把良心留下了。我们也许不需要诺贝尔经济学奖，但我们需要敢讲真话、讲实话的经济学家。”与吴敬琏相似，在本次基金揭黑中表现坚定的《财经》主编胡舒立也声名大噪。2001年7月，她入选美国《商业周刊》评选出的50位“亚洲之星”之一，对她的评语是：“这是中国证券界最危险的女人”。 由“基金黑幕”到“股市赌场”，好比一张桌子失火殃及了整幢房子。吴敬琏的出击鼓励了与他一样有良知的经济学者，那些在股市上横行一时的庄家开始受到惩罚。 10月底，中央财经大学的女研究员刘姝威撰写《应立即停止对蓝田股份发放贷款》一文，明确指出大热门股蓝田股份已经成为一个空壳，建议银行尽快收回所有贷款。这篇仅有600字的呼吁书，顿时掀起轩然大波。如果说吴敬琏的批评是宏观式的，那么外表柔弱而毫无知名度的刘姝威则直接把矛头对准了一个具体而强悍的敌人。来自湖北省的蓝田股份是股市上一只老牌的、以“生态农业”为题材的绩优股，自1996年发行上市以后，它在财务数字上一直保持着神奇的增长速度，总资产规模在4年里连着翻番增长了10倍，历年年报的业绩都在每股0.60元以上，最高达到1.15元，即使遭遇了1998年特大洪灾以后，每股收益也达到了不可思议的0.81元，创造了中国农业企业罕见的“蓝田神话”，被称做“中国农业第一股”。根据刘姝威的研究，蓝田股份的所谓辉煌业绩都是谎言，全是靠虚假会计报表伪造出来的。 刘姝威的呼吁书一出，理所当然地引来蓝田股份的强烈反击，公司当即将她告上法庭，湖北省洪湖市中级人民法院以“侵害蓝田公司名誉”为名通知她马上到庭听审，她的家中隔几天就会冲进一批不同身份的人，要求她“公开道歉、消除影响、否则后果自负”。连刊登刘姝威短文的一张杂志也赶紧发表声明撇清干系，宣称“文章纯属个人观点，不代表本编辑部。”刘姝威向有关机构报告，亦得不到任何的回音。后来她不无悲情地回忆说，“此时我已经变成了一个强大势力集团的对立面，只有以死相拼了。”所幸的是，有良知的财经媒体站到了她的一边，中央电视台《经济半小时》、《财经》等媒体记者纷赴蓝田股份所在的洪湖市瞿家湾镇，他们拍摄和记录了看到的现场：“蓝田工业园里杂草丛生，大部分车间都是铁将军把门。很难想象这就是蓝田公司生产野莲汁、野藕汁的部分设备，水管已经生锈，阀门、压力表也是锈迹斑斑，装化学原料的玻璃瓶不知道已经放了多长时间，流出来的汁液已经泛黄。”他们得到的财务报表显示，“蓝田的巨额收入从会计角度无法最终确认，蓝田的业绩真假无从辨别。”事实呈现在阳光下，撒谎者却肆无忌惮地横行天下，这便是资本游戏台面下的黑暗。随着新闻舆论的参与，相关银行相继停止了对蓝田股份的贷款，2002年1月，蓝田董事长保田因“涉嫌提供虚假财务信息”被拘传接受调查。在几个月里日夜失眠的刘姝威“侥幸”胜出。在2002年度的“CCTV中国经济年度人物”评选中，她成为继吴敬琏之后当选的第二位学者。在发表获奖感言时，她说了一句话：“集体失语是一个民族的悲哀。” 除了蓝田股份，另一个遭到报应的是上年最活跃的大庄家——中科创业的吕梁。 吕梁之败完全是信心崩盘所导致的。在他的肆意炒作下，中科创业已经创下连续22个月股价持续上涨的奇迹。便在这样的时候，那个与他联手坐庄的朱焕良沉不住气了，他开始暗地里出货套现，然后雇了几条小快艇把数十箱现金偷运出国境，其数目应该在11亿元人民币左右。到年底风声日紧，那些跟着吕梁做“老鼠仓”的人也有点慌了，于是不断抛出股票。这些蛛丝马迹很快被外界察觉，普通股民本来就对高位的股价颇为敏感，稍有风吹草动立即就会诱发大规模的出逃，于是，建在一片谎言之上的中科神话陡然倒塌。中科创业的股价崩盘是从12月25日开始的，在度过了一个吉祥无比的平安夜之后，高傲了将近两年的股价在圣诞节这天突然高空栽葱，一头摔在了跌停板上。更可怕是，这一跌停就是一连9个，股价从33.59元一路下跌到11.71元，50亿元市值旦夕之间烟消云散。中科创业的崩塌迅速波及中科系的其他成员，中西药业、岁宝热电等均上演跳水惨剧，股价数日之内腰斩一半。 这是一场预言中的失败。吕梁故事的尾声是这样的：2000年的最后一个夜晚，他打电话约见媒体记者，声称自己正写作自述，将把真相全部大白于天下。据他说，参与中科炒作的机构多达四百多家，都“非常的有名”。全中国的媒体都屏声息气地期待他揭开那只神秘的“黑暗之盒”，吕梁会是一个说出真相的“伟大的叛徒”吗？开年后的2月3日，吕梁被北京警方在家中抓获，9日，被监视居住的他突然神秘失踪，从此再无音讯。据称，“那天他披着军大衣潜离，消失在初春亚运村川流不息的人流中。”他的结局大概有三种：至今潜藏在国内的某个地方；出逃到国外的某个地方；被人谋杀在地球的某个地方。无论死活，那个文学青年吕新建、股评家吕梁和庄家K先生都不会，或者没有机会说出所有的秘密了。