Chapter 32 Chapter 13 Dale Theory and Conflict Prevention

——Past and Present Free trade is the best diplomatic means God bestowed on mankind, and there is no better way than free trade to allow mankind to live in peace. —British political scientist Richard Cobden, 1857 Before I begin this chapter, I want to tell you about the computer I used to write this book, as it is relevant to the topics I will discuss in this chapter.I am using a Dell Inspiron 600m with a serial number of 9ZRJP41. I have visited Dell Management near Austin, Texas.I told them what my book was about and asked if they could give me a glimpse into how the global supply chain for Dell laptops works.I would like to know which countries the various parts of this Dell laptop come from and, if possible, who made my computer.

The report I got is this: On April 2, 2004, when I called the 800 free service number of Dell Computer, the company's personnel began to design the computer I needed according to my request.Then the company assigned a sales representative, Mujtaba.Neville was responsible for entering my order into Dell's order management system.He had to enter both the basic model of the laptop I needed and the various configurations I chose, along with my personal information, shipping address, account address, and credit card information. Dell verified my credit card through a business connection with Visa, and my order was officially routed to its production system.Dell has 6 factories around the world, located in Limerick, Ireland, Xiamen, China, El Dorado, Brazil, Nashville, Tennessee, Austin, Texas and Penang, Malaysia .

My order was emailed to Penang, Malaysia, where the factory immediately ordered computer-related parts from a nearby supplier's logistics center—a consortium of different suppliers.These supplier logistics centers are assembled in the waiting area like troops. If you are a component supplier of Dell, no matter where you are in the world, your job is to ensure that the specific parts stored in the logistics center are sufficient, so that Dell Factories can then order parts at any time for just-in-time production. "Typically, we sell 140,000 to 150,000 computers a day," says Dick.Hunt explained to me that he is one of the three people responsible for managing Dell's global production. "Customers place orders through Dell's website or service calls. As soon as a customer's order enters the production system, our suppliers know immediately. .Your demand information for any part of the computer can be accurately transmitted to him, so that the supplier can send the relevant parts to the factory. For example, if you are a supplier of power cords for desktop computers, you will know that every minute and every second How many power cords need to be shipped.” Every two hours, the Dell production plant in Penang sends an e-mail to the nearby supplier logistics center, telling them how many and what parts should be sent to the factory within 90 minutes— — Not a minute too late.During these 90 minutes, you will see that the trucks from various logistics centers go straight to the Dell factory, and then unload the required parts.

All the parts are needed for the laptop that the customer ordered two hours ago.When parts arrive at the factory, Dell workers spend 30 minutes unloading them, recording barcodes on the items, and packing them into boxes for assembly. "We know at all times which suppliers in Dell's production system can provide which parts," Hunter said. So I asked him, "Where did every single part in my laptop come from?" He said, "First of all, this laptop was made by a guy in Austin, Texas, a Dell in Taiwan Province, China. Designed jointly by a team of engineers and a notebook design team composed of designers from Taiwan, China. Due to the direct connection between Dell and customers, Dell will design the functions and styles of computers completely according to customer requirements. Some basic components that any computer must have , such as the motherboard and computer-aided software are designed according to the unified specifications of the Chinese Taiwan manufacturer. On this basis, our engineers in Austin work with technicians from other regions to design the entire computer.

This global cooperation will result in higher work efficiency - a 24-hour uninterrupted work system. Our partners are responsible for the basic electronics and we help them incorporate the individual features requested by the customer.We understand our customers' needs better than suppliers and competitors because we deal directly with them every day. "Dell laptops are completely redesigned roughly every year, but throughout the year, new personalization features are added along with hardware and software updates. Coincidentally, when my laptop order was delivered to Dell's production facility in Penang, one of the parts, the wireless network card, was not usable due to quality issues.So the assembly of my computer was delayed for a few days.Soon, trucks full of good-quality wireless cards arrived at the factory. At 10:15 am on April 13th, a Malaysian worker took my product order, and once all the parts were in place, the order was automatically transferred to the production process.Next, another Malaysian employee pulled out a "traveler" -- a special loading tool designed to hold and protect parts -- and put all the parts I needed for my computer into it.

Where do these parts come from?For the 30 commonly used components, the number of suppliers selected by Dell is several times the number of parts.That way, if one supplier fails, Dell won't get bogged down. The suppliers of my computer are: microprocessors produced by Intel Corporation in the Philippines or Costa Rica, Malaysia or China; memory produced in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan or Germany; graphics cards produced in mainland China or Taiwan; China Fans made in Taiwan; mainboards made by Korean or Taiwanese factories in Shanghai or by local companies in Taiwan; keyboards made by either Japanese factories in Tianjin, China, or Taiwanese factories in Shenzhen; LCD monitors Manufactured in South Korea, Japan, or Taiwan, China; wireless network cards are either manufactured by U.S. factories in China or Malaysia, or by local or mainland factories in Taiwan; modems are made by companies established in Taiwan, China, or local Batteries come from Japanese or South Korean or Chinese Taiwan factories in Mexico or Malaysia; hard disks are made by American factories in Singapore or Japanese factories in Thailand and the Philippines; optical drives are likely to come from Korean factories in Indonesia and the Philippines, or from Japanese factories in China, Indonesia, or Malaysia; computer bags made by Irish or American companies in China; power adapters made in either Thailand, or Taiwanese, Korean, or American factories in China; power cords Made by British factories in China, Malaysia and India; finally, removable memory sticks are made in Israel, or by American companies in factories in Malaysia.

Getting every link in the supply chain to work in harmony—from my phone order, to organizing production, to door-to-door delivery—seems to me to be one of the wonders of the flat world. "We had to collaborate a lot," Hunter said. "Michael personally knows the CEOs of these suppliers, and we have been cooperating with them to improve the production process and maintain the real-time balance between supply and demand." Dell is always constantly adjusting the product demand structure.How to adjust the demand structure?For example: at 10 am Austin time, Dell found that many laptops ordered by customers required a 40G hard drive. If so, the supply chain would be out of stock after two hours.This signal is automatically sent to Dell's sales department, the company's Web site, and all ordering telephone operators.If you place an order with Dell at exactly 10:30, the company's sales representative will say to you: "You are very lucky today, because we will launch a promotion soon, and you only need to pay $10 more than the price of the 40G hard drive. You can get the configuration of 60G hard disk. If you order now, Dell will give you a suitcase as a thank you for choosing our company’s products.” Taking advantage of such a promotion, within one or two hours, Dell can The current situation is reshaping the structure of customers' demand for notebook computers and desktop computers.Today it might be promoting memory, tomorrow it might be promoting CD drives.

Let's talk about my laptop. "April 13th, 11:29 AM, all the parts arrived and my computer was assembled by A. Sardini, the computer installer who installed all the parts and affixed my order label", "This computer is then transferred to the operating system installation department by a conveyor, where the company will install the software I have formulated on my computer." Dell can provide users with many installation options including Microsoft's , Norton, and other software vendors. "At 2:45pm, the software I needed was installed, and the laptop went into the packaging process. At 4:05pm, the computer was placed in Styrofoam, wrapped in a cardboard box with a label on it, It has my order number, tracking number, computer system parameters, and shipping code printed on it. At 6:04pm, the computer is loaded into a pallet with a manifest stating when my computer is supposed to arrive , the identification of the loaded pallet and the delivery address. At 6:26, my computer left the production plant and was transported to the airport in Penang.” Dell leased a Boeing 747 aircraft of China Airlines in Taiwan, China, every week There are 6 flights, the flight from Penang to Nashville via Taipei.Each plane carries 25,000 laptops with a total weight of 110,000 kilograms, equivalent to 242,506 pounds.The Boeing 747 is the only flight to land in Nashville, except for the President of the United States who landed there on Air Force One when he visited Nashville.

"April 15th, 2004 at 7:41 AM all computers from Penang and Limerick arrived in Nashville. At 11:58 my computer was packed into a bigger box and sent on the conveyor line To the designated external equipment installation department." At this point, it has been 13 days since I ordered the computer.The process would actually take only 4 days if there were no time delays due to parts shortages in Malaysia.My computer production involves a total of about 400 companies in the Americas, Europe and Asia (mainly), and although they are scattered all over the world, they work together efficiently through the supply chain.At 12:59 p.m. that day, my computer was handed over to UPS for overland transportation (which takes 3-5 days) and was affixed with a UPS tracking number. At 6:41 pm on April 19th, the goods arrived in Bethesda, Maryland, and signed for delivery.

The reason why I tell the story of this laptop is to see the big from the small. The so-called small refers to the division of labor and cooperation for the production of laptops, and the so-called big refers to the geopolitics in a flat world.To all the forces in the previous chapter that impede and even reverse the process of flattening the world, we must add the more traditional threat of an old-fashioned, earth-shattering war, one whose blow to economic development is devastating sexual. There are many possibilities for war, maybe China decides to take back Taiwan by force; maybe North Korea is out of fear or madness and launches a nuclear attack on South Korea or Japan; there may be an armed conflict between Israel and Iran, which is about to possess nuclear weapons; Nuclear war broke out between India and Pakistan.All classical geopolitical conflicts can erupt at any time, with consequences that either slow the rate of world flattening or cause a reversal of the trend toward world flattening.

The real theme of this chapter is how to moderate those traditional geopolitical threats through the new types of cooperation that the flat world fosters—especially supply chains.The history of the flattening of the world is not long, so it is difficult to draw any firm conclusions.But one thing is for sure, as the world flattens, the most interesting thing about international relations will be the game between traditional global threats and emerging global supply chains.The game between the two will become a living textbook for studying international relations in the early 21st century. In "Lexus Cars and Olive Trees", I said that when a country's economic construction and future development are closely linked to global integration and global trade, this country will think twice before using force with its neighbors. I first started thinking about this question in the 1990s, when, on my travels, I discovered that no two countries ever went to war with each other (border skirmishes and Civil wars don't count because McDonald's usually serves both sides of the conflict).After being confirmed by McDonald's, I came up with what I called the "golden M (McDonald's logo) theory of conflict prevention." The golden M theory believes that when a country's economy develops to a certain level and the domestic middle class is strong enough to support McDonald's service network, the country is called a McDonald's country.In such a country, people don't want to fight wars, they prefer to queue for burgers.This is too subtle to say, and it may be confusing.Simply put, let’s hit the nail on the head, when a country is increasingly connected to international trade and thus improves its own standard of living – McDonald’s sales network within its borders can be a sign that the price paid by the warring parties is too high , so the war is not cost-effective. McDonald's theory and reality have always been very consistent, but now, except for the notorious North Korea, Iran and Iraq under Saddam Hussein, almost all countries have McDonald's stores.It appears that the theory needs to be updated for the reality of the flat world.I call this updated theory the Dale Theory of Conflict Prevention.The essence of the theory is that the real-time global supply chain in the flat world becomes a more powerful constraint on adventurists in geopolitics than the rising standard of living symbolized by McDonald's on war. Dell's theory holds that war will never break out between any two countries in the global supply chain.Because old-style warfare does not bring any benefits to people in the supply chain, people just want to improve their living standards through more flow of goods and services.One of the people who can deeply understand the essence of this theory is Michael.Dell, he is the founder and chairman of Dell Corporation. “These countries know the trade-offs,” Dale said, pointing to countries in the company’s Asian supply chain, “and they’re very careful to protect their rights, or tell us outright that we don’t have to worry about it, that they’re not going to take risks. After visiting China, I am convinced that all the changes happening here are for the better interests of the world and China.Once people feel the benefits of financial independence, a higher standard of living, and the ability to create a better future for their children, people seize these opportunities and don’t want to let go. ""Any war in East Asia or China will reduce people's enthusiasm for investing here, and there will be obstacles to the development of these regions," Dale said. He believes that the governments in those regions understand this very well. They made it clear that stability is very important to us.This is not a matter of one or two days, but a long-term strategic issue... "I believe that as time goes by, as those areas continue to develop and improve, the chances of military confrontation will decrease exponentially. But I think these phenomena have not yet caused People pay enough attention. When you improve your standard of living by increasing your income, you don't sit down and think, who made me live like this? Or why our standard of living is so poor? If a country's workers and industries are integrated into major global supply chains, the country knows that they cannot spare an hour, a week, or a month to go to war with someone else.Even if it is fought, it will have a devastating impact on the development of the world economy and various industries, and make it lose its position in the supply chain for a long time. This price is too high.For a country with no natural resources, being able to be part of a global supply chain is like drilling for oil — oil that never runs out.So losing your place in the supply chain by starting a war is like having an oil well run dry and cemented.In a short period of time, it is impossible for this country to return to the supply chain. Glenn, Dell's senior vice president of procurement, asked me what would happen if a country in an Asian supply chain decided to go to war with its neighbors and break the supply chain as a result. E. Neyland said: "You have to pay the price for your actions. You not only have to admit your mistakes today, but also accept punishment for a long time in the future. Because other countries and multinational companies have lost trust in you .China is currently establishing the credibility of the business community. In such a business environment, clear and strict rules of the game can give you the opportunity to develop yourself.” Neyland said suppliers often ask him if he is concerned about the relationship between China and Taiwan, since both sides have threatened to use force several times over the past half-century.He replied that he did not believe the threat would materialize. In his conversations and exchanges with companies and national governments in the supply chain, especially China, he realized: "These countries recognize the opportunity for development, and they should be as active and enthusiastic in cooperation as they see other countries in Asia. They know that the supply chain brings them a lot of benefits, and they want to pursue this kind of benefits. We will spend $3.5 billion producing components this year, 30% of which will be in China. ""If you look at the development of the supply chain, you will find that the supply chain first contributed to the stability and prosperity of Japan, then South Korea and Taiwan, and now Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia.Once some countries join the global supply chain, they will feel that the benefits brought by the supply chain are far greater than what their own country can provide. "Neilan said. One afternoon in Tokyo, Osamu Watanabe, chairman of the Japan External Trade Organization and chairman of the Japan External Trade Organization, explained to me how Japanese companies transferred a large number of low- and middle-level technical jobs and products to China: they Do the basic processing in China and then ship the parts back to Japan for final assembly. Japan insists on doing this despite the historical mistrust between the two countries. From a historical point of view, it is very difficult for a strong Japan and a strong China Get along with each other. But this perception is not true now, at least not in the near future. "Right now, a strong Japan and a strong China can exist at the same time. Because the supply chain works." It's a win-win for both parties. Clearly, since Iraq, Syria, South Lebanon, North Korea, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran are not part of any global supply chain, wars between these countries could break out at any time, slowing or reversing the flattening of the world.As the story of my laptop demonstrates, the most interesting test of Dell's theory of conflict prevention is to see whether it applies to the situation between China and Taiwan. Both are deeply embedded in some of the world's most important computer, electronics, and software supply chains.Most of the computer components for every major company come from coastal China, Taiwan, and East Asia.In addition, Taiwan's investment in mainland China alone has exceeded US$100 billion.Experts from Taiwan also manage many cutting-edge technology manufacturing companies in the Mainland. Craig, former editor of Ecommerce Asia magazine.Anderson wrote an article in the International Herald Tribune (September 9, 2000) entitled "Silicon Shields Protect Taiwan From War."He pointed out that products based on silicon, such as computers and network systems, form the basis of the digital economy of the United States, Japan and other developed countries. In the past 10 years, China Taiwan has grown into the world's third largest producer of information technology hardware after the United States and Japan.Armed conflict between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait would reduce the supply of these products worldwide. .Such action would cost tech companies in the U.S., Japan, and Europe trillions of dollars in lost market value. Dale's theory was first put to the test in December 2004, during the election of local leaders in Taiwan.The Democratic Progressive Party, led by Chen Shui-bian, is expected to defeat its main rival, the Kuomintang.Chen Shui-bian is trying to turn the election into a vote on his proposal for a new constitution that would formalize Taiwan's independent status. If Chen Shui-bian wins the election, if he is unwilling to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait and accelerate the process of Taiwan independence, it may lead to an armed attack on Taiwan by mainland China.In such a tense atmosphere, everyone on both sides of the strait held their breath.What was the final result?Economics trumped politics.A majority of Taiwanese vote against lawmakers from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, preventing the DPP from gaining a parliamentary majority.These voters clearly see that the economic ties between Taiwan and the mainland of the motherland are closely intertwined, so they are more willing to maintain the status quo, because once the status quo changes, such as the military landing of Chinese mainland troops on Taiwan, there will be many uncertainties in the future. The interests of many Taiwanese will be affected. Warning: I'm going to repeat again what I said when I presented the McDonald's theory: the McDonald's and Dale theories will not end wars, and they will not guarantee that governments will not make the decision to start a war, even if those governments are in major global supply chains.It is naive to think so.In fact, these theories can only ensure that countries along the global supply chain think twice before doing anything.And no matter what the leaders choose to go to war, the price they pay for their choice is 10 times higher than that of 10 years ago, or even more.It's one thing to have McDonald's withdraw from your country, it's quite another to start a war in the 21st century that takes you out of global supply chains and you'll be hard-pressed to recover for a long time. Although the best examples of Dale's theory are China and Taiwan, I now have a preliminary understanding that the relationship between India and Pakistan may also apply to a certain extent. I happened to be in India in 2002, when supply chain services collided with old fashioned geopolitics and it turned out that supply chain won. In the case of India and Pakistan, only one side, India, fits Dale's theory, but the role is still very strong.India's position in the world's technology and service supply chain is like the position of mainland China and Taiwan in the world's manufacturing supply chain.General Electric's largest research and development center outside the United States is in Bangalore, where there are 1,700 Indian engineers and scientists; the core chips of Nokia mobile phones are designed in Bangalore; It is processed in Bangalore's technical center; American Delta Airlines and British Airways track your lost luggage through the Bangalore system; dozens of multinational companies' account processing and system maintenance are also in Bangalore, Mumbai, Chennai and other large Indian cities. completed in the city. On May 31, 2002, the US State Department spokesman Richard.Boucher issued a travel bulletin: "We urge US citizens currently in India to leave the country as soon as possible." Because the possibility of nuclear war between India and Pakistan was very high at that time.Both governments have mobilized troops to share border areas.There are intelligence reports that the two sides are stepping up the production of nuclear warheads in their own arsenals. CNN kept showing images of Indians fleeing their homes to escape the war.There is great anxiety among the many US multinationals that have moved their back-office technology processing centers and R&D departments to Bangalore. "Friday night I was surfing the web and I came across a travel announcement about India," said Vivek, president of Wipro, which manages back-office technology operations for many US multinationals.Paul said, "When I found out about the announcement, I couldn't help shouting: 'Oh my God! 'Because the introduction of this announcement will cause every customer to doubt the development prospects of our company.Since there are two days off immediately, Wipro made a plan to protect the continuous development of business for all customers during the weekend. "While the company's clients are relieved to see that the company they serve is well-versed in all situations, there are still many who complain that when these multinationals outsource critical operations to India, they do not Anticipating these situations, Paul said, “The chief general officer of one of our US clients sent me an email.He said in the letter: "I am spending a lot of time looking for alternative Indian business outsourcing locations. I think you will definitely not want me to do this, and I don't want to do this." I immediately conveyed his thoughts to the Indian ambassador to the United States , and hope he can find the right people to coordinate related issues." Paul would not tell me which company it was, but I can confirm from diplomatic sources that this company is United Technologies Corporation.Many other companies with outsourcing operations in India, like American Express and General Electric, are equally concerned about the situation. "For many multinational companies, Bangalore is the heart that supports all their businesses," said N. Krishana, president of MindTree, another well-known outsourcing company in Bangalore.Kumar said, "If there is a problem here, it may cause economic chaos around the world. We do not want to interfere in the foreign affairs of the country. What we want to explain to the government through the Confederation of Indian Industry is to provide a stable and predictable economy. The economic development environment is crucial to India’s development.” Those old Indian leaders in New Delhi should really learn this knowledge, they have not fully realized how important it is for India to be a member of the world’s knowledge supply chain Significance.When you're doing back office processing for American Express or General Electric or Avis online, when you're tracking lost luggage for British Airways or Delta Air Lines, if war stops work for a month, a week, or even a day , there will be massive disruption to the businesses of these companies.When these management or R&D operations were transferred to India, multinational companies hoped that the relevant operations could take root here, and this entrustment was serious.However, if major geopolitical disruptions force multinationals to pull out of India, it will not be so easy to get them back.For this trade in services, once lost means lost forever. "In a flat world, you only get one chance to get it right," Paul said. "For all the benefits of a flat world, you have the downside of having multiple choices for each customer. Therefore, your sense of responsibility should not only be reflected in providing good services to customers, but also pay attention to protecting your own favorable position, so that customers can feel at ease in entrusting their business to you.” The Indian government got the information.Prime Minister Vajpayee tempered his rhetoric and stepped back from the brink of war. Is India's position at the center of the world's service supply chain the only factor contributing to this outcome?of course not. There are many other factors here, among which it is certain that Pakistan's possession of nuclear weapons is also an important reason for stopping the war.However, it is clear that India's role in global services trade is an important additional factor constraining India's behavior, which has been taken into account by New Delhi. "I think that fact has woken a lot of people up from their dreams," said Jerry, who heads the Indian High Technology Trade Federation.Rao said: "We have considered this issue very seriously and finally came to the conclusion that this behavior of the government is very harmful to Indian business and economic development. . Until then, we suddenly realized that India has already become a country with the world. Integrate. Every moment, India is playing the role of an important partner in the world's supply chain." In 2002, Vivek, Secretary of Information Technology for the Bangalore Local Government.Kulkarni told me: "We will not interfere in politics, but we must let the government pay attention to what will happen to India's IT industry in the event of a war." For New Delhi, this is the time for its national policy completely new factors to consider. "Ten years ago, there was never a contingent of lobbying ministers for science and technology from the provinces of India," "Right now, this is the most important team lobbying the Indian government," Kulkarni said. "Considering all the circumstances, if McDonald's closes its stores in India, there will be no impact on the world," Vivek said."But if Wipro has to shut down, it will affect the day-to-day business processes of many companies around the world," Paul said. With no one answering calls in call centers, many Bangalore-backed e-commerce sites will shut down.Many companies that rely on India to produce computer applications, or outsource their human resources and clearing departments to India, will not be able to operate.These companies don't want to transfer these businesses to other countries, because the cost of switching is very high. To undertake the outsourcing business of multinational companies, they need to receive a lot of training and have enough experience, which is different from opening a fast food restaurant.Paul said: "That's why Wipro's client told him, 'I'm invested in you. I hold you accountable for the trust I put in you.' 'These words put a lot of pressure on us to work responsibly...Suddenly it became clear to me that there was more to be gained through economic means than through political means.If we can generate a vibrant, richer middle class that can generate export industries, then India can gain more than war with Pakistan. "The Indian government also recognizes the voice of one billion citizens: 'I want a better future, not more territory. "Time and time again I ask young Indians who work in call transfer centers what they think about Kashmir and the war with Pakistan. The answer is the same: 'We have better work to do.' " These Indians did exactly the same.When Americans are about to move their jobs overseas, they should consider what these young Indians think.I am by no means advocating that the United States allocate some work overseas to seek peaceful coexistence between India and Pakistan.But I think that since the efficacy of outsourcing has been reflected in India's choice of weighing pros and cons, it is clear that this economic activity will have a positive impact on geopolitics.A more peaceful world is good for future generations of Americans. Every Indian business leader I interviewed pointed out that in the event of a brutal act of terror or war against India by Pakistan, the Indian government will do whatever it takes to defend itself, and the first thing the country's leaders will do is to make To hell with the Dell theory.Sometimes wars are inevitable, imposed on you by the reckless actions of others, and you have to pay for it.However, the more India participates in the world supply chain and the deeper the level, the less willing it is to resort to war to solve problems.We hope that one day, Pakistan can also join the global service supply chain and think about issues with economic logic. In 2002, the India-Pakistan nuclear crisis gave us at least some hope.The ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan was not brought to us by US Secretary of State Powell but by General Electric. This is our luck. Infosys and Al Qaeda Unfortunately, there is only so much GE can do.Because new factors leading to geopolitical instability have emerged in recent years, and even Dale's theory has no restraint on such factors.This factor is a mutated global terror supply chain: both criminals and terrorists may use the tools of the flat world to reverse the process of flattening.The first time I thought about this question, Infosys CEO, Nairi.Nelekani offered me the opportunity to visit the Global Videoconferencing Center at his company's headquarters in Bangalore.I mentioned this visit in the first chapter of this book.Nandan explained to me how Infosys' global suppliers quickly came together for a video conference.At the time, a thought popped into my head: Who else in the world has access to this imaginative tool of connection?答案当然是“基地组织”。 基地组织已经学会了许多与Infosys 公司同样的手段进行全球范围内的合作。 但是他们利用这些工具不是为了生产产品和获得利润，而是制造罪孽和谋杀。这是一个特殊的难题。事实上，对于平坦的世界里那些集中精力谋求未来发展的国家来说，这也许是最令人烦恼的地缘政治问题。平坦的世界是个双刃剑，它既可以成就像Infosys 这样的著名公司，也可以滋生臭名昭著的基地组织。戴尔理论对于这些非正式的恐怖主义网络不起作用。因为他们不是拥有一定数量人口的国家，他们的领导人没有必要向任何人负责，没有任何内部的游说组织约束他们的行为。这种变异的全球恐怖生产供给链的行动目标就是为了破坏，不是利润。他们不需要投资者，只需要加盟者、捐献者和受害者。这些四处活动的、自给自足的恐怖供给链，使用平坦世界提供的所有合作工具筹集资金、招兵买马和宣传思想，把培训恐怖分子的工作外包到其他国家，在各地分配作案工具和自杀袭击志愿者。美国军队中央指挥部给这个地下网络起了一个名字：虚拟哈里发。这个组织的领导人和创新人员像沃尔玛、戴尔和Infosys 一样，理解平坦世界的含义。 如果你不了解世界的平坦化进程，你是无法真正了解基地组织的崛起的。而我在这里要说的是，如果你不联系到世界的平坦化进程，你也无法从技术角度理解基地组织的崛起。全球化是基地组织的朋友，因为它帮助世界各地的穆斯林增加了认同感，更加紧密地团结起来。由于因特网和卫星电视的出现，一个国家里的穆斯林能够看到他们在其他国家的兄弟们进行的斗争，从而可以相互支持。世界的平坦化导致了更多的都市化，导致许多年轻的男性阿拉伯穆斯林大规模地移居西方。他们没有工作、受到挫折，这些愤怒的年轻人很容易地利用非正式的公开网络相互联系，成立组织，采取行动。对于地下极端主义穆斯林政治团体，这些联络工具是一种福音。想一想：100年以前，无政府主义者在彼此联系与合作方面受到限制，所以难以找到志同道合的人，不容易一起采取行动。今天，随着因特网的出现，这些已经不再称之为问题。今天，即使寄邮包炸弹者也能够通过参加一个团体找到同路的朋友们。 我们在伊拉克看到的是这个恐怖供给链的一个更加反常的变种——人体炸弹供给链。自从美国于2002年3 月入侵伊拉克以来，超过200 名自杀袭击者从伊斯兰世界中被招募出来，通过与人体炸弹制造者连接的地下通道送到伊拉克。这些人体炸弹被派到伊拉克各地，根据起义组织的需要抗击美国军队，袭击伊拉克目标。我能够理解，以色列对约旦河西岸长达37年的占领所激起的巴勒斯坦人的愤怒，但不能相信仅此就能够让他们采取自杀袭击的方式复仇。但是美国对伊拉克的占领仅仅几个月后，就尝到了自杀袭击的味道。怎样招募到那么多愿意为“圣战”的事业献身的年轻人？ 他们中的很多人甚至不是伊拉克人，他们甚至相互不称呼名字，不会在这个世界上留下任何名誉。事实是，西方的情报机构还没有弄明白这些有着源源不断的后备力量的地下组织是如何工作的，而这些组织已经妨碍了美军在伊拉克的行动。从我们已知的情况来看，这个虚拟的哈里发的工作方式与我以前所描述的供给链的工作方式是一样的。就好比你在伯明翰的一家折扣商店的货架上拿下商品，而同时北京的另一家商店又把这个商品装上货架，自杀袭击的零售商在巴格达售出一个人体炸弹后，另一个人体炸弹迅速地在贝鲁特被招募到并训练好。随着这种策略的传播，美国需要重新思考其军事原则。 平坦的世界已经成为基地组织和其他类似组织的好帮手，使他们能够以小博大，使他们能够以较小的行动产生巨大的影响。《华尔街日报》的记者丹尼尔。 帕尔被巴基斯坦的伊斯兰组织砍下脑袋的血腥画面，经因特网传遍世界。世界上任何地方的记者看到画面或仅仅读到这个消息都会感到毛骨悚然。但是同样的砍头录像也成为恐怖组织招募新成员的宣传工具。平坦的世界使这些组织传播恐慌更加容易。有了因特网的帮助，他们不必再通过西方或阿拉伯的新闻媒体就可以把有关消息送到你的电脑里。 他们为你上传了恐怖，而给人们带来焦虑所需要的花费越来越少。正像美国军队中夹杂着记者一样，自杀供给链中也夹杂着恐怖分子，他们以自己的方式告诉我们其对世界的看法。多少次我清晨起床，登陆美国在线的主页，被一些头戴面具，手持机枪，威胁要砍掉美国人脑袋的人的视频图像吓出一身冷汗。因特网也是进行宣传传播、搞清真相、阴谋联合时有用的工具。因为不知何故，技术使因特网上的任何东西都更加可信。有多少次，你听到某人说：“如果不是我在因特网上得到这个消息……”好像网络上的消息可以权威到用来终止一场辩论。事实上，因特网可以使事情变得更糟。 它经常导致更多的人接受疯狂的阴谋理论的熏陶。 “新的传播系统因特网更容易传播非理性，”专门研究媒体与政治之间交互作用的政治理论家亚容。埃兹拉罕说，“因为非理性在情感上更容易被人们接受，接受非理性不需要具备高深的知识，所以更便于在人群中广泛传播。”这就是为什么阴谋理论在今天的阿拉伯穆斯林世界，甚至西方世界的某些角落里如此流行的原因。阴谋理论就像药物一样渗入你的血液，让你看到“光明”。因特网就是注射器的针头。年轻人过去不得不通过注射迷幻药来逃避现实中的失败，现在他们只需要上网就可以了。 你可以下载到正好说中你心思的那些观点，平坦的世界使这一切变得更加容易。 以色列海法大学的通信学教授加布里埃尔。威曼对恐怖分子使用因特网以及平坦世界中的其他联系工具进行了深刻的研究。其研究结果于2004年3 月被美国和平协会出版。2004年4 月26日，“耶鲁全球在线”摘录了其中一部分内容：。 恐怖分子利用电脑对因特网进行黑客供给经常引起人们的讨论，但令人奇怪的是，很少有人知道恐怖分子在利用因特网进行联系与合作，策划恐怖活动，。威曼写道，。最近长达6 年的研究显示，恐怖分子和他们的支持者一直在利用因特网提供的各种工具招募新成员、筹集资金以及发动世界范围内的恐怖袭击。我们还看到，要有效地打击恐怖主义行为，仅仅抑制他们手中的因特网工具是不够的。2003~2004年期间，我们通过对整个因特网上的网站的搜索调查发现，有成百上千的网站在以不同的方式为恐怖分子进行服务……有无数个例子可以用来说明，恐怖分子是怎样使用这个不必经过审查的媒介传播假情报，发布恐吓信息，展示最近一些恐怖行为的可怕画面。自从2001年。9 〃11. 事件以来，基地组织的网站上不断地宣布要对美国的一些目标实施大型袭击。这些警告被大量媒体做了报道，从而在世界范围内帮助制造了更广泛的恐慌和不安全感，尤其是在美国本土…… 因特网为恐怖分子扩展了进行公开宣传的机会，而恐怖分子为他们的事业和行为进行宣传恰恰是为了引起电视、广播电台和印刷媒体的注意。恐怖分子亲自控制自己网站的事实，使他们有更多的机会让不同的受众了解自己，塑造自己和敌人的形象。大部分恐怖分子的网站并不庆祝其残暴的恐怖行为。相反，不论他们的性质、动机或地点，大多数恐怖分子网站只强调两个问题：对言论自由的限制和被视为政治犯的他们被捕同伙的处境……这些问题引起了恐怖分子支持者的强烈共鸣，同时也得到了西方言论自由倡导者的同情，使这些西方人士对有关当局禁止政治反对派言论的做法感到不满……。 恐怖分子不仅熟练地在网络上进行宣传，而且还善于搜集网络上的各种资料。 他们可以通过因特网查到所袭击目标的出行时间表和地点，比如运输设备、核电厂、公共建筑、机场和港口，甚至反恐设施。根据美国国防部长唐纳德〃拉姆斯菲尔德所说的，美国军队在阿富汗境内找到了一本基地组织训练手册，这本书告诉读者。不用使用非法手段，只要利用公开资源就可以收集到关于敌人的至少80%的情报……一个被缴获的基地组织电脑中含有一个水坝的工程建设资料，这些资料是从因特网上下载的，可以使基地组织的工程师和袭击策划者模拟恐怖袭击造成的灾难事件。在另一个被缴获的电脑中，美国的研究者发现基地组织人员正在利用一些网站下载软件和关于数字控制的程序指令，通过这些程序，他们可以控制供电系统、供水系统、运输系统和交通网络。 像许多其他的政治组织一样，恐怖分子利用因特网筹集资金。以基地组织为例，其活动资金在很大程度上一直依靠捐赠。捐助人、非政府组织和其他金融机构利用网站和因特网上的聊天室、论坛把资金转移到恐怖分子手中。俄罗斯车臣共和国中的分裂分子也使用因特网公布接收同情者捐款的银行账户账号。2001年12月，美国政府没收了德克萨斯州一个慈善组织的资产，因为这个组织与哈马斯有联系。 除了在网络上寻求资金援助，恐怖分子还利用全套的网络技术（如音频、数字视频等） 增强其信息的冲击力和感染力，以吸引新成员加入组织。就像商业网站努力要把访问者转变为自己产品的消费者一样，恐怖组织也能够获得浏览器网站的用户的信息，然后与那些看上去对恐怖组织的事业非常感兴趣的或者非常适合执行恐怖任务的访问者进行联系。招募人员还有可能使用更加具有互动性的网络技术，如在线聊天室和网吧等在公共人群中寻找合适的人选，尤其是年轻人……坐落在华盛顿特区的专门研究恐怖组织网址的研究所一直在监视基地组织在因特网上的活动，该研究所提供了基地组织利用因特网招募人员，并派到伊拉克袭击美国和盟军部队的细节。因特网也给恐怖分子提供了便宜的、有效的联系方式。许多恐怖组织，其中包括哈马斯和基地组织，都从严格的按等级制度建立的机构转变为许多分散的半独立单元。通过因特网，这些分散的半独立单元之间，可以保持紧密地联系。因特网不仅可以使同一组织的成员相互联系，还能够让不同的恐怖组织之间相互联系。例如，许多以'圣战'的名义支持恐怖主义的网站允许车臣和马来西亚的恐怖分子交流思想，以及实际工作中的经验，像怎样制造炸弹、建立恐怖小分队、执行袭击任务等。在'9 〃11'恐怖袭击中，基地组织主要是依靠因特网进行策划和协调的…… 综合以上原因，我们开始理解世界平坦化的地缘政治意义。一方面，无论出于什么动机，我们忽视了失败的国家和地区，因为它们对我们既没有任何经济机会，又不会像在冷战时期由于要与前苏联对抗而需要向它们施加影响。另一方面，今天没有任何一个比拥有宽带能力的失败国家更危险的了。如果一个失败的国家拥有电话网络和卫星联系，如果一个恐怖组织渗透到这个国家中，正如基地组织对阿富汗所作的那样，网络可以将它的能力放大百倍。其他强有力的政权越想离这些政权远一点，他们就会越不得不深入地扎根在那里。想想美国在阿富汗、伊拉克，俄罗斯在车臣，澳大利亚在东帝汶的情景吧！ 在一个平坦的世界中，想要藏起来更加难了，但是想彼此联系却无比简单。 john.霍普金斯大学外交政策专家迈克尔。曼德尔鲍姆说，“本·拉登不能露脸，但是却可以联系到世界上任何一个角落，多亏了因特网。”本·拉登占据不了任何领土，但是却可以掠取数百万人的想象力。他甚至在2004年美国大选前夕直接向美国民众广播。 拥有卫星天线和互联网络的恐怖分子比地狱还要可怕！ 心中的恐慌2004年的秋天，我应邀到纽约伍德斯托克的一个犹太教堂中演讲，这里是著名的伍德斯托克音乐节的所在地。我问主办方，他们为什么偏偏要在伍德斯托克的一个犹太教堂里举办这个活动，要知道，除了这个教堂，还有很多地方可以举办这种活动。 他们的回答很简单，因为自从“9.11”事件以来，包括犹太人在内的很多人从纽约搬到了像伍德斯托克这样的小地方，以免将来他们的家再被夷为平地。现在，这个趋势只是一个溪流，但如果将来某一天，一个核装置在欧洲或美国的城市中被引爆，这个趋势将发展成势不可挡的洪峰。 既然核恐怖威胁是所有导致世界不平坦因素中破坏力最大的，如果没有这方面的讨论，这本书就会不完整。我们经历了很多恐怖威胁，我们经历了“9.11” 恐怖袭击，但是我们却经不起核恐怖袭击的折腾。那种行为将会使世界永久的不平坦。 本·拉登在“9.11”事件中没有使用核装置的唯一原因不是他不想像这样做，而是他还没有能力这样做。由于戴尔理论不能约束自杀袭击的供给链，我们唯一的策略就是限制他们所能使用的最坏的手段。这意味着我们要在全球范围内通过限制供给，买断已经存在的核燃料，制止核扩散，尤其是在前苏联境内的核扩散，同时还要阻止更多的国家加入核国家行列。哈佛大学国际事务专家格雷厄姆。阿丽森在他的著作《核恐怖主义》中说，如果要阻止最后大灾难的发生，我们就要阻止恐怖分子接触到核武器和核原料。现在动手还来得及。阿丽森坚持认为，这是对我们意志和信念而不是能力的挑战。阿丽森提出一个由美国倡导的新的国际安全规则，这个规则以他所谓的“三无原则”来解决核扩散问题：“没有零散的核武器，没有新制造的核武器，没有新的核国家。”没有零散的核武器是指比现在更严格的方法保护核武器和用于制造核武器的原料。“我们的金库里没有丢过黄金，”阿丽森说，“俄罗斯的克里姆林宫里没有丢过珍宝。所以，如果我们决心保护好对我们来说十分重要的核武器，我们应该知道如何防止窃贼接触到那些东西。”没有新制造的核武器，是指承认一些人能够并且已经生产出高浓缩铀或钚，这意味着他们完全具有生产核弹的能力。我们需要更加可信的、多边的防核扩散机制，阻止新的核原料的出现。最后，没有新的核国家，是指截至目前已经拥有核武器的8 个国家，从此以后，不管多么不公平和没有道理，核国家俱乐部不会再吸收新成员。阿丽森还补充说，实现这三步可能需要我们花费时间建立一个更加正式的、稳定的、在国际上获得广泛支持的合作机制。 如果能够阻止类似基地组织的恐怖组织接触到因特网，那就太好了，但那是不可能的。因为如果对因特网进行限制，我们自己也会受到损害。这就是为什么限制恐怖分子的能力是重要的，但不是充分的。我们还必须找到一个办法阻止他们最坏的意图。 如果我们不能关闭因特网，以及使世界变得更加平坦的其他合作工具，如果我们不能阻止恐怖分子接触这些科技，我们所能作的剩下的唯一一件事，就是影响平坦世界中各种创新工具给他们带来的想象力。当我跟我的荷兰籍神学教师拉比。兹费。马克斯提到这个问题以及我所写的这本书的框架时，令我惊奇的是，他竟然告诉我，我所描述的平坦的世界使他想起了通天塔的故事。 How did that happen?I asked. “上帝把人类从通天塔驱逐走，并让他们讲不同语言的原因就是因为上帝不想让他们相互合作，”拉比。兹费。马克斯回答说，“由于人类曾经要合作建立一个直通天堂的高塔，这样，当人类登上高塔，也就可以当上帝了。上帝发现人类这个行动后十分恼怒。”从这件事中可以看到人类潜在的能力，所以上帝打破他们之间的联合，让他们说不同的语言，无法相互沟通。现在，经过那么多年，人类再次创造了一个新的平台——因特网，使越来越多不同地区的人们能够更加容易地相互共同合作。上帝是否会把因特网看作异端？ “绝对不会，”马克斯说，“异端不是人类之间的相互合作本身，关键看这种合作会导致什么结果。如果我们利用这些新的通讯与合作工具做有益的事情而不是疯狂的行为，那么这种合作就是必不可少的。 建造通往天堂的高塔当上帝是一种疯狂的行为。本·拉登是疯狂的，他认为他掌握着真理，如果别人不重视他的存在，他可以铲平任何人建立的高塔。实际上，通过合作发挥出人类全部的潜能正是上帝对人类的希望。“我们怎样促成更多的合作是我在最后一章要讲述的内容。 The World Is Flat Conclusion： Imagination 结论：想象