Chapter 23 Chapter 8 Quiet Crisis (3)

Wynne, a Republican from Missouri, early in Bush's tenure and when the Republican-dominated Congress decided to cut the 2005 NSF budget.Ehlers demurred among the crowd, making the following statement: "I understand that this is a difficult choice to make in light of austerity. But I still think it's very difficult to cut funding for scientific research." Unwise. The fact is that in 2005, the number of projects requiring autonomy is still increasing, and spending in this area will also increase. So on the basis of maintaining financial constraints, increasing funding for basic research should be obvious. However, not only did we not use Our appropriations are growing at the rate of inflation, and we have made a decision that is in the opposite direction. This decision ignores the future of the country and is dangerous. I am amazed at the timing of the government's choice to make this decision - here At this moment, students from other countries continue to outperform our students in math and science competitions, and governments around the world continue to increase funding for basic scientific research-and worry. Without a group of well-trained and educated With a well-educated workforce, we cannot hope to regain lost jobs in international competition."

Wayne.Ehlers was right.The effects of the cuts are already being felt.According to the National Science Foundation, since 1992, the proportion of scientific papers written by Americans in the world's total papers has dropped by 10%. Papers published by Americans in the world's leading physics journal Physical Review The proportion of all published papers has dropped from 61% in 1983 to 29% now. Now, people are starting to notice that a large number of technology patents are obtained by Asians. Between 1980 and 2003, Japan's share of world industrial patents rose from 12% to 21%, and Taiwan's rose from 0 to 3%, compared with a decline in the United States from 60% to 52%. Congress Legislators have a long history of spending money on freeway projects everywhere in order to get support, let's spend that money on test tube projects from now on!In case the United States falls behind in national competition.

Secret No. 6: Infrastructure gap Thomas, a former American diplomat in Japan. Bleher, in a famous article published in the May-June 2005 issue of Foreign Affairs, begins: In the first three years of the Bush administration, the United States went from No. The place drops to 13th.Today, most American households have only "basic" broadband equipment, the slowest, most expensive and least reliable form of Internet access in the developed world. The U.S. lags even further in terms of cell phone access to the Internet.This situation is undoubtedly the Bush administration's dereliction of duty in developing network projects. In fact, the United States is the only developed country that does not have a clear national broadband development policy.Since Bush came to power in 2001, his administration's main priorities have been tax cuts, missile defense and counterterrorism—not keeping America ahead of Internet innovation.In fact, since Bleher wrote that article, things have gotten worse, according to 2004 statistics.According to data from the International Telecommunication Union in April 2005, the broadband penetration rate of the United States slipped from 13th to 16th.According to data from the International Telecommunication Union, as of December 31, 2004, there were 11.4 broadband subscribers per 100 residents in the United States, which is less than half that of South Korea, which has the highest broadband usage rate in the world. There are 24.9 broadband users.

For the first time, Norway, Israel and Finland surpassed US broadband penetration. The National Journal reported on April 25, 2005 that France's widespread use of broadband technology almost pushed the United States down further.The penetration rate of high-speed Internet in France has doubled, from 5.61 broadband users per 100 residents in 2003 to 11.2 users in 2004, ranking 17th, only one place behind the level of the United States. During Bush's first three years in office, Blaher believes, President Bush mentioned broadband only twice, and only in passing.Mark of the Center for the Study of American Progress.Wright wrote in "Development Report" (October 7, 2004): "Not only that, the indicator for measuring broadband services in the United States is still 200Kbps (Kbps, kilobytes per second, network access rate unit), which has long been It can’t keep up with the level of other parts of the world.” For example, in Japan, paying about 10 dollars a month can get an Internet access service equivalent to 200Kbps 40 times the speed.The smartest countries and cities in the world offer their residents not only the fastest broadband services, but also the lowest prices.

Why should America be careful? Broadband and information technology are important not only because they are the largest industry in the world, but because they are critical to productivity growth and innovation in every sector of the economy.The more you connect with educated people in the flat world in an easy and affordable way, the more knowledge you automatically acquire, and the more time and energy you have to spend on innovation.And the more innovations, the more things are produced to advance the flat world.This will be a virtuous circle, a development promotion method that we dream of.

A flat world makes innovation and production more efficient, but if people don't have the relevant infrastructure or educational methods to acquire the knowledge, they can't take advantage of the advantages and benefits of a flat world, said Craig, Microsoft's chief technology officer."Then it's going to be a matter of time before you get knocked out," Mundy said. Bottom line when I asked Bill.Gates is downright contemptuous of what many see as the strength of an American education — an emphasis on creativity over rote learning.In his view, those who believe that China and Japan, which emphasize rote learning methods, cannot produce creative talents who can compete with Americans just as well.

"Creativity is sparked by taking a test," Gates said, "I've never met a software developer who couldn't use multiplication. . Whoever designed the most imaginative video game in the world, was Japanese. I never felt like they were learning by rote People who work with skills... Among the best software developers I have worked for, there are Japanese. You have to remember the original knowledge first, and then you can build on it to expand to a wider field." Always remember: competition from young Chinese, Indians and Poles does not push us off a cliff, it forces us to rise to a higher level.They don't want to work for us, and they don't even want to take our jobs.From the standpoint of starting a company, they want to rule us, they want to build a company in the future, so that people all over the world will envy and rush to serve them.They will never be satisfied with the progress they have made so far.

I once chatted with an American Chinese who worked for Microsoft and accompanied Gates to visit China. He told me that when Gates was in China, he strongly felt the energy contained in those young people. People clasped their windows and bought high-priced tickets from ticket peddlers just to listen to what he had to say.The same situation happened to Jerry Yang, the founder of Yahoo. In China, people treated him like a rock star. In China today, Bill.Gates is more popular than Britney Spears.Spears. In America today, there is only Britney.Spears is the real idol -- and that's one of the worrisome things.

No wonder John.Johns Hopkins President Bill.Brody told me: “Sixty percent of the science majors in our school are foreign, and most of them are from Asia. At one point four years ago, all the math majors were from China. However, until I only learned about this when the school put these students in as teaching assistants because some of them didn’t speak English well enough.” The parents of a college student at the school wrote to Brody complaining that their son couldn’t understand calculus Learn from the professor's class, because the teacher's English pronunciation is really bad, and he speaks a strong Chinese accent.

Whatever is lacking in basic education in mathematics and science in the United States, there seems to be a belief that it can be "made up for" by encouraging the best students to think creatively.That seems to be the case.The Chinese will tell you that now they are good at making the next generation of new products, copying the next generation of new technologies, but they are not good at imagining the next generation of new things.But this situation will change, the Chinese are now confident that their best senior high school students can surpass American students in mathematics and natural science, and now China is concerned about how to stimulate more creativity and innovation among young people ability and vitality.

In October 2005, I visited Beijing and met Wu Qidi, Vice Minister of Education of China.I had tea with her in the Ministry of Education building, the newest and most beautiful government building in Beijing.She told me: "Although our economy is developing rapidly, we have very little intellectual property. We are very proud of China's four major inventions in the past: the compass, papermaking, printing and gunpowder, but we have no Keep up with the pace of invention and innovation, the Chinese are capable of inventing and innovating – why didn’t we do it? We need to step back and reflect.” Deputy Minister Wu added: "What we are focusing on today is how to cultivate creative thinking and entrepreneurship." Of course, actions speak louder than words.Fostering creative thinking and entrepreneurship may contradict traditional Chinese culture's emphasis on "obedience", but cultures change, and China is undergoing changes, especially as more and more Chinese people are accepted in the United States and Europe. educate. "From the beginning of reform and opening up, we have selected and sent a large number of teachers, scholars and professors to study abroad. They went through a process of evolution and change, and they now pass on the details of those changes to their students in the classroom. Now we see that the world is changing, and the Internet makes the world change with each passing day. .I think the arts are going to play a big role, but it's more about how art and science can be brought together so that people can think creatively and independently...Many of our teachers don't know how to integrate art and science Not well trained. "She strikes me as Georgia Tech's Winnie Crow. It's this feeling that convinces me that China is now trying to overcome its own weaknesses and develop creative thinking to keep pace with the United States. Perhaps the actual process will be much longer than China itself thinks.However, when looking at China's top performance in some fields, I have no doubt that China can go anywhere it wants to go.Let me take you to Microsoft Research Asia, this is Bill.Gates established a research and development center in Beijing.Microsoft has four research centers around the world: one in Cambridge, England, one in Redmond, Washington, where his headquarters is located, one in Beijing and a fourth that was recently built in Bangalore.bill.Gates told me: "If the quality of creativity is used as the standard, Microsoft Beijing Research Institute (now Microsoft Research Asia) has achieved fruitful results since its establishment in 1998 and has become the most productive arm in Microsoft's research system." Universities in China have begun to rank their seats. In order to occupy a place on the campus of a top university, the competition among people is very cruel.Those who excel in math and science can be educated at top universities or hired by foreign companies.For scientists and engineers, it is a desirable thing to be able to work in Microsoft's research institute in Beijing, and Microsoft employees view the Beijing research institute in this way: "Remember, in China, even if you are lucky enough to Take the one in a million chance to stand out, and there are 1,300 others who will do the same." This kind of talent pool is too huge. At present, Microsoft's research institute in Beijing selects talents at a ratio of one in a million. Kai-fu Lee is the global vice president of Microsoft Corporation, and personally created the Microsoft Beijing Research Institute according to Gates' instructions. The first question I asked him was: "How do you recruit researchers?" Kai-fu Lee told me that his team went to various universities in China, and then tested mathematics, IQ and programming on PhD-level students and professional researchers. test. "The first year, we tested 2,000 people," he said, "and then we used more testing to pick 400 out of those 2,000, then 150, and finally we hired 20 of them." The company signed each of them with a two-year work contract and told them that when the two-year period expired, the company would decide whether to renew their contract for a longer term or to be awarded by Microsoft based on the quality of work they had previously performed. Postdoctoral research certificate issued by the Asian Institute.Yes, you read that right.The Chinese government did grant Microsoft the qualification to set up a postdoctoral workstation.Of the 20 people originally hired, 12 ended up staying.The next year, almost 4,000 people took the test.Later, Kai-fu Lee said: "We stopped the testing work. Because at that time, our company was already considered the best job in the world, and all the computer and mathematics elites wanted to join... We began to get acquainted with the These professors will introduce us to the people they think are the best people. Companies trust these professors because if the people they recommend are not qualified for the job, they will lose face. Now, top professors in top universities are constantly recommend top students to us. Many of these students want to go to Stanford or MIT, but they decide to do two years of interns at Microsoft first, because Microsoft will provide them with letters of recommendation to prove that they are Talent that MIT needs." Kai-fu Lee said, "They regard working at Microsoft as a rare opportunity to earn high income in their lifetime. These young people saw their parents go through the hardships of the 'Cultural Revolution', and they once thought that the best future they could strive for was Be a university professor and do some research on computer topics. The income of professors is still very considerable. Now, they can go to work for Microsoft and use a large number of computers and other resources to concentrate on research. We put in management for them, and it's unbelievable for them to take care of all the miscellaneous things. These people volunteer to work 15 to 18 hours a day, and they also take the initiative to work overtime on weekends, regardless of holidays.Because Microsoft is their dream. "Before he came to Microsoft, Kai-fu Lee had worked in other high-tech companies in the United States. He said that he had never seen such enthusiasm in a laboratory before, as if the company was still in its infancy. Today Microsoft has 200 full-time researchers in its labs in China.Shen Xiangyang, the dean of Microsoft Asia Research Institute and a Ph.D. from Carnegie Mellon University, firmly believes that as long as there is a suitable environment, the Chinese can make any innovation.At the International Conference on Computer Graphics and Interactive Technology in 2005, 98 papers from universities and research institutions around the world were collected and published, and 9 of them came from Beijing, surpassing the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford University. Shen Xiangyang said: "In 1999, we had only 1 paper, in 2003 there were 3 papers, in 2004 it was 5 papers, and this year we are very lucky to have 9 papers." Have you seen their development trend? In addition, Microsoft Research Asia has contributed more than 100 new technologies to Microsoft products, from Xbox to Windows operating system.In the past 7 years, Microsoft Asia Research Institute has experienced a leap, but China still has a long way to go outside the gate of Microsoft. A Chinese reporter asked me, how big is the gap between China and the United States, and how far behind is China?I joked: If you don't consider creativity, the gap between China and the United States in high-tech is 3 months.When I was a student 20 years ago, I didn't even know what was going on in America; now, whenever MIT kids post something on the Internet, Chinese students can digest it in 3 months.But can these things be created in China?This is another question.I was at Carnegie Mellon mostly to learn how to do research properly.Before you create anything, you should understand what exists.As long as you have these foundations, creativity can be cultivated.China is building that foundation, so in 10 or 20 years you'll see an influx of high-level research articles written by Chinese. If more original ideas are to be generated here, China will also need more venture capital and laws and regulations to market them.Shen Xiangyang said: "Some aspects of Chinese culture do not encourage independent thinking." "However, when venture capital enters China, there is no doubt that it will create a new generation of Chinese entrepreneurs. Next year I will teach a course on how to finance high-tech ventures at Tsinghua University. There is knowledge in Chinese universities, but people don't Know how to market it." Some young Chinese researchers under Shen Xiangyang showed me many new research models.I noticed that some researchers had few tomes on their desks, and I asked an employee who had only seven or eight books on the shelf, "Which ones are what?" She replied that these books documented that the researchers had been granted patents. Every time a technology is produced, Microsoft will issue relevant certifications to its inventors. Who says China can't make Ferrari? On December 15, 2004, the Competition Commission held a national innovation conference at the Reagan Building in Washington and announced its long-term innovation development report - "Innovation in the United States: Moving Ahead Amid Changes and Challenges".This is an exhaustive survey co-chaired by America's top technologists and industrialists, committed to "fueling" America's competitive advantage and competitiveness through more research, education, and innovation. A few months after the report came out, the Chinese embassy in Washington contacted the competition committee, saying that China's vice minister of science and technology would visit them and invite members of the committee to lunch.Deborah.Wins.Smith, the energetic chair of the competition committee, told me that her colleagues were very excited to share the report with their Chinese guests. While other foreign delegations have expressed interest in visiting, they do not think it is necessary. "The Competition Commission has already taken action to share the report with other countries. He (China's Vice Minister of Science and Technology) Said they had translated the report into Chinese and integrated it into a 20-year technology development plan. "Vince. "The Chinese are following us, we're not following them. China has been eyeing the committee's work report on its network," Smith said. Wins.Smith has been very concerned recently: "Either we implement the 'American Innovation Report,' or China implements and surpasses our plan." Don't care!When the American Innovation Report was launched in Washington, the authors, powerful American educators and business leaders, begged the White House to invite President Bush to the report launch, hoping to use him to bring the report to national attention.Bush's staff declined the request, apparently considering it less newsworthy. Do you know where Bush delivered his speech that day?He happened to be downstairs in the hall where the report was released, in the same Reagan Building, which coincided with the time of the report meeting.What more important thing did he do at that time?He's hosting his own "economic summit," pitching the ultimately failed Social Security privatization plan to a select audience and many Republican donors.Bush spoke in front of a curtain that read "Securing the Future of Our Economy."Also below the lecture hall is IBM CEO Sam.Palmisano and Georgia Tech's Winey.National Innovation Summit co-chaired by Chancellor Crowe.Bush couldn't even spare 5 minutes for this, and the Chinese immediately translated the report into Chinese.These are not my making up nonsense. Shortly thereafter, I met Craig, chairman of Intel Corporation.Barrett exchanges.He seemed exasperated: "Washington, including both political parties, does not seem to see this quiet crisis coming, at least not with the sense of urgency it should have." Barrett said, "Although American schools graduate many excellent students, we will hire talent anywhere." Intel's high-tech investment locations include: Russia, China, India and, to a lesser extent, Malaysia and Israel.Those regions and many emerging markets are where Intel is increasingly selling its chips. Barrett believes that the flat world has indeed brought changes to Intel, but it is many Americans who have been impacted. Intel can thrive as a company, he said, "even if we don't hire Americans. Of course that's not at all what Intel is doing," he added quickly, "while we still actually hire a lot of Americans, today we're able to hire elites around the world and have a lot of success with that. " Intel had to hunt around for elites with high IQ, CQ, and PQ because its competitors were doing the same. Tracy, director of corporate affairs at Intel.Kuhn said: "Remember, Intel's chips only use two raw materials-sand (silicon comes from sand) and brains-at this moment, the problem is the brain." If we want to hire more talents, And to keep them in the United States, the government needs to formulate a more effective immigration system for national development, otherwise we can only go out and find these talents where they are.How to choose?I'm not talking about data programmers or undergrads in computer science, I'm talking about advanced engineers in specialized fields.It's far from a question of setting up a transit center.We have just established an entire engineering establishment in Russia, where the engineers are extremely well trained and there is a constant fear of losing their jobs. This is Shirley.install.Jackson's "perfect storm", if we strictly limit the entry of geniuses from overseas as before, then for our best companies, future business opportunities will come from foreign markets more, and we have not passed good education to let our talents Children bridge the gap.If such a storm hits, an American company like Intel will leave American soil like a rocket.We'll think of them as American companies because they'll still be listed on the New York Stock Exchange and have post office boxes, but they're actually already flat-world companies.It does matter where innovation happens, because that means where the best jobs land, and thus the chances of better and more decent jobs.Microsoft's headquarters in Redmond, Washington, and Google's headquarters in San Francisco, California, are significant locations, and if they're gone one day, it's going to be a big problem. "The average level of added value obtained by the labor force is related to the standard of living," Barrett said, "and the added value is related to the average level of education. If the average level of education of your employees declines, your competitiveness, standard of living Definitely going down." Look at what Congress is highly concerned about?It's the steroid problem of the NLB teams, not the science education crisis in the cities of the American baseball teams.How much time does Congress have to react to baseball's steroid problems?Almost at the moment when the scandal broke.What about the educational crisis in the natural sciences? Congress is not in a hurry to do things that have no political benefits, and the president has other more important things. “As my wife told me, when you look at history and look at the rise and fall of every civilization, they always leave behind a legacy — a big stadium in the center of their capital,” Barrett said. It takes 15 years to produce a scientist or a high-level engineer - from when children are interested in science and mathematics in primary school, to finally being able to produce a large number of talents to avoid this quiet crisis. We should have started a national plan to strengthen polytechnic education and employment 10 years ago.In order to prevent this crisis in which we are deeply involved, from turning into what Jackson called "the real McCoy" and completely lowering our living standards, we should make every preparation, no delay, no matter the cost. Initiate urgent measures to strengthen polytechnic education.The idea that doing so is unwarranted can get us into big trouble.Scientists and engineers cannot emerge from the cracks of the rock overnight, they must be cultivated for a long time. It is a real crisis that we have nothing concrete to do about it.This may be an imperceptibly quiet crisis, but it is real and present, as the Stanford economist Paul said.Romer's warning: a terrible crisis is imminent, there is no time to waste!