Chapter 21 Chapter 8 Quiet Crisis (1)

In previous Olympic competitions, the US team rarely encountered evenly matched opponents. Now it seems that the Americans should gradually adapt to this situation. ——Excerpt from a review article published by the Associated Press on the Athens Olympic Games on August 17, 2004, titled "US Men's Basketball Team Narrowly Beats Greece" The Chinese are now deeply sympathetic to our country in recession.Many Chinese friends mentioned to me their proverb: "The rich can't last three generations", and they couldn't understand why the United States has become so disorderly, irrational and unrestrained. The "Lewinsky scandal" is an unreasonable waste of time in their eyes, and their past emperors can have thousands of concubines.The Chinese are equally amazed that Americans allow themselves to borrow so much and run public schools in the red, while the media is only interested in feeding tubes, the Ten Commandments movie, and how to eat more and not get fat.

——James, former chairman of the China Council of the American Business Association.Mike.Gregory (formerly a reporter in China, now doing business in China) wrote so in the Washington Post on July 31, 2005. Now, other countries in the world are competing fiercely with the United States, and this competition has the same effect as the men's basketball teams of other countries and the US men's basketball team in the 2004 Athens Olympics.The US men's basketball team, composed of many NBA stars, only won the bronze medal after losing to Puerto Rico, Lithuania and Argentina, and went home dejectedly.Before that, the U.S. men's basketball team had lost just one game in modern Olympic history.Have you ever remembered that the United States assigned NACA student players to participate in Olympic basketball.For a long time, these student players were enough to tie all the teams from other countries.Going forward, challenges emerged, and we began to send professional teams to the expedition, and professional teams were gradually challenged.

Because teams in other countries are constantly learning, knowledge and technology are spreading faster and faster.Coaches of teams from other countries can download American team training methods from the Internet and watch NBA games in their living rooms on satellite TV.Many of them can even watch replays of the highlights on ESPN Sports. As a result of the confluence of factors that have flattened the world, budding basketball talents have arrived in the NBA from all over the world, including many from China, Latin America and Eastern Europe.When the Olympics began, they returned to their home countries to play for the national team using the skills they honed in the United States.Therefore, the superiority of the United States in Olympic basketball 20 years ago is now gone. The skill level of the NBA is increasingly becoming vanilla ice cream.If America is going to continue its dominance in Olympic basketball, we have to get to the next level technically.The standards of the past are history.Like IBM's Joel.

What Cauley said to me: "Players one-on-one, basketball players from Lithuania or Puerto Rico can't compete with the American team, but when they play together as a whole, when they cooperate better than the American team When it's smooth, it's extremely threatening to Team USA." August 26, 2004, sports columnist John.An opinion piece published by Feinstein on AOL pointed out that the performance of the US men's basketball team is the result of the combination of two factors: the improvement of the level of other countries' basketball teams and the decline of the level of American basketball.The decline in the level of basketball in the United States is caused by the development of two long-term trends.

The first trend is the degradation of basic basketball skills.American kids just want to shoot 3-pointers or score dunks — scenes you can watch on ESPN Sports highlights replays — rather than down-to-earth learning how to pass the ball with precision, how to find gaps in the open. Pull off a jumper or get away from a big guy for a layup.These techniques require a lot of hard training to learn.Feinstein said that today's generation of American players advocates the excellence of play, rather than the basic skills of technology, and they are becoming more and more eager for quick success. "While the rest of the world is getting better, more and more NBA players are not motivated to compete in the Olympics," Feinstein said. "We've improved a lot since 1984, when Bob Knight told Charles Barkley that he could not weigh more than 265 pounds (1 pound = 0.373 kilograms) when he appeared in the Olympic training camp, while Barkley ended up weighing 280 pounds (1 pound = 0.373 kilograms), Knight Brushed him off. Now the coach who builds the men's olympic basketball team won't even check the weight of the 'barkleys', he'll send a big limousine to the airport to pick up the players, and they can go to the hotel if the players ask Stopping at Duncan's on the way... the world has changed, and the changes that have taken place in American basketball have not been for the better." John.Feinstein's words are also applicable in the field of American engineering technology.

The development of the United States after World War II to today reminds me of an old saying-wealth cannot last for three generations. The first generation were hard-working entrepreneurs who made their fortune through innovation; the second generation kept all their wealth; down the legacy.I know this kind of statement is too harsh and too general, but no matter what, it does have some truth in it.American society began to feel smug in the 1990s, when the third generation came of age after World War II.The prosperity brought about by the Internet has left an impression on many people-it is possible to get rich without heavy labor.All you need to do is get an MBA, a quick IPO, or an NBA contract, and you're done, and you don't have to worry about the rest of your life.But while we are appreciating the flat world we have created, a large number of Indians, Chinese and Eastern Europeans are thinking about how to use the opportunities brought by the flat world to develop themselves.We're lucky because we're the only economy that hasn't been ravaged by World War II because we haven't had a tough competition for the past 40 years.While this makes us world leaders in every way, it also breeds complacency, assuming that everything should be American.In recent years, this has even developed into a trend - praising consumers over hard work, investment and strategic thinking.When we were terrorized, it was a great opportunity for the president to call attention to the areas of our nation's finances, energy, science, and education that we've been neglecting, within a generation. , this kind of opportunity is rare.Yet instead of doing what Kennedy did, our president called on us to consume.

In previous chapters, I have shown why classical economic theory and the inherent strength of the American economy lead me to believe that if we roll up our sleeves and get ready to compete; Get more education; if we continue to invest in technological innovation, Americans need not worry about a flattening world.This chapter is an analysis of why we are not doing these things, and what will happen if we do not change the current situation and go down this road. The truth is, we are in a crisis right now.But the crisis developed very slowly and quietly. "It's a quiet crisis." Shirley.install.Jackson said.Shirley.install.Jackson was the president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 2004, and she has also served as the president of Siler Institute of Technology since 1999 (the oldest university of science and technology in the United States, founded in 1824).This quiet crisis is slowly eroding America's scientific and technological engineering foundations, the source of Americans' continued innovation and improved living standards.

"The sky hasn't fallen yet, and nothing serious will happen anytime soon," Jackson said.The physics-trained scientist weighs her words carefully: "The United States is still the world leader in technological innovation. The United States has the best graduate programs, the best scientific infrastructure, and the translation of knowledge into Profitable capital markets. But we must be soberly aware that a crisis of calm is brewing in the American tech world. We need to put ourselves in the global context and see that all countries competing with the United States not only have a clear mind , while still running a marathon with us, but we are only good in the sprint."

Shirley.install.Jackson knows what she's talking about because, like everyone else, she can use her career as an example of why America has prospered so much for the past 50 years, and why it won't be the same for the next 50.Jackson, an African-American woman, was born in Washington, D.C. in 1946. She received her first education in a segregated public elementary school, and later, thanks to the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Brown v. Board of Education of Topeka, she became the first black child in a public elementary school to benefit from anti-racist policies. When she was able to get a better school to study by chance, the former Soviet Union launched the first artificial earth satellite in 1957.So the U.S. government is fully committed to cultivating the young generation of Americans as scientists and engineers. This trend became more intense after President Kennedy announced the implementation of the manned spaceflight program.When President Kennedy talked about putting a man on the moon, Shirley.install.Jackson was one of millions of young Americans listening to the president's speech.“The President’s words inspired me to help and push many of my generation to become scientists, engineers and mathematicians,” she recalled, whose breakthroughs and innovations in these fields have gone far beyond manned space. original requirements of the plan. "The space race is really a science competition."

Thanks to the abolition of racial discrimination, Jackson's inspiration and understanding were unearthed, and she eventually became the first African-American woman to earn a Ph.D.Since then, she has worked for many years at AT&T's Bell Laboratories and was appointed by President Clinton in 1995 to head the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. As the years passed, however, Jackson began to see that fewer young Americans were interested in challenges facing the country like the race to the moon, and fewer were fascinated by math, science, and engineering.At university, she noticed that the number of students studying polytechnics had been growing for decades, peaking in 1993, and despite some recent progress, today's numbers are still lower than they were a decade ago.Therefore, after Jackson's generation, relative to the needs of the country, the reserve force of science and engineering talents has become weaker and weaker.By the time Jackson began her tenure as president of Siler Tech and devoted herself wholeheartedly to reinvigorating the tech profession, she realized that a perfect storm was looming that would have long-term harm to the health of the U.S. economy. , whenever she gets the chance, she does what she can to speak out on the issue.

"The term 'perfect storm' comes from a meteorological disaster in October 1991," Jackson said in a May 2004 talk, "when a powerful storm accumulated so much energy that it ravaged the Atlantic Ocean and caused Huge loss of life and property was caused. This incident was later written into a book and then made into a movie. While the meteorologists responsible for observing the phenomenon stress that a confluence of factors to cause massive damage is unlikely, something like this and worse is at hand, and it is likely to hamper our nation's recovery. technological development.The force of this 'storm' is multiple and comprehensive, coming from population, politics, economy, culture and even society. "Each force is quite negative, and when all the forces are combined they can be extremely destructive." For the first time in 100 years, the United States will find itself lagged behind other countries in terms of economic and economic development. "Knowledge is always important, and knowledge is even more important in this day and age. Just like the economist Jeffrey. Sachs pointed out: before the start of the technological revolution in the 17th century, everyone, everywhere, was actually working for a living. But with the development of science and technology for more than 300 years, food and clothing are no longer the standard of living.Steam power, machines, electricity and now computers and the Internet have made mass production possible by individuals.Thus, the industrial and information ages are now giving way to the elite age.A flattening world brings the tools of the industrial and information ages to more places and more peoples.As tools become commoditized and ubiquitous, the “only way to survive” for nations and businesses is the talent and entrepreneurship of their people and employers.Business strategist John.Hegel said so. Economic activity can always be a win-win, but the biggest winners will be those who are the best at absorbing the elite as quickly as possible. The above is what I have repeatedly insisted on. In a flat world, countries with the following three basic elements can accumulate wealth rapidly: infrastructure that is efficient and fast connected to the flat world; good education for their people to engage in innovative and high value-added jobs Programs and knowledge and skills training system; good governance structure (right tax policy, appropriate investment and trade laws and regulations, strong support for research, strengthened intellectual property protection, and most importantly, charismatic leadership - able to perform well leading the people through the ebb and flow of a flattening world). Unfortunately, the United States is severely underdeveloped in all of these areas.During the Cold War, the deepest source of U.S. anxiety was the so-called gap in missile numbers between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.This gap threatens America from the outside.Today, we express concern about the gap between the United States and other countries in terms of infrastructure and education. In the flat world, these disparities are an internal threat to the United States, a closely guarded secret.If we continue to ignore these facts, the crisis will no longer be peaceful, Jackson said: "It will become the real McCoy." One of the best kept secrets: the number gap The number gap is the first secret.The generation of scientists and engineers, inspired by the threat of the Soviet Union's launch of Sputnik in 1957 and inspired by President Kennedy, to devote themselves to the natural sciences is approaching retirement age, and it will be difficult for the United States to maintain its economic preeminence Find enough qualified backup personnel to fill the positions vacated by these personnel's retirement.According to the National Science Foundation, the average scientist and engineer is in his 40s, and the average age is steadily rising. Take NASA, for example. On March 21, 2004, "Florida Today" analyzed the archives of NASA (including the Kennedy Space Center in the United States) and found the following facts: Of the 18,146 people in NASA, almost 40% reached the or over 50 years old.Those who have worked in the public service for 20 years are eligible for early retirement. 22% of staff are 55 or older.The ratio of the number of staff over 60 to those under 30 is 3:1. Only 4% of staff are under 30. Due to national security concerns, many jobs in the department are only available to U.S. citizens.However, a 2003 GAO study showed that NASA is having a hard time hiring people who meet its requirements, and that more and more people don't have the solid science, engineering, and knowledge and information technology.NASA administrator Sean.O'Keeffe testified before Congress in 2002: "If no suitable candidate is found, our mission to understand and protect Earth, to explore the universe, and to search for extraterrestrial life must cease." By former astronaut and Senator John.The National Committee on Mathematics and Science Education for the 21st Century, chaired by Glenn, found that two-thirds of the teaching staff of mathematics and science in the United States will retire by 2010. Traditionally, we have made up for the shortage of engineers and scientific and technical personnel in the country mainly by strengthening education at home and introducing talents from abroad.But recently, both channels have shown signs of drying up. Every two years, the National Science Council oversees a broad set of data on the development of science and technology in the United States, which is used as an indicator of the development of science and engineering in the United States.After analyzing data for 2004, the National Science Council found: "It is disturbing to observe that the number of scientists and engineers who are US citizens has declined, while the number of jobs requiring such backgrounds has continued to grow." concern.” This trend threatens national economic welfare and security.The National Science Council added that if this trend continues, three scenarios will occur in cascade: "The number of jobs that require a background in science and technology will rise; the number of U.S. citizens who will be able to fill these jobs will be greater than it is today. flat; the utilization of relevant talent from other countries will decline, either because of restrictions on their entry to the United States for national security reasons, or because global competition for such talent makes it difficult for us to obtain.” The National Science Council report also found that the United States has dropped to 17th in the world in the number of 18- to 24-year-olds educated in science and engineering, down from 30 years ago when we were 17th in the world 3. The report pointed out that in 2003, among the 2.8 million bachelor's degrees in science and engineering awarded worldwide, 1.2 million were obtained by Asian students studying in Asian universities, 830,000 were obtained by Europeans, and young people in the United States obtained them. Humans only get 400,000 of them.Especially in engineering, Asian universities now produce eight times as many undergraduate graduates per year as the US. "Moreover, if compared with some countries, the above-mentioned ratio gap will be even greater." Shirley.install.Jackson said.In China, the number of bachelor's degrees awarded each year in science and engineering accounts for 60% of all bachelor's degrees awarded, in South Korea this ratio is 33%, and in Taiwan, China, the ratio is 41%. In contrast, this ratio in the United States It remains at about 31%.The National Science Council said: "The United States has always relied on the inventions and innovations of its people to compete in the world market. An adequate supply of labor with knowledge in the natural sciences and engineering is an important basis for maintaining national competitiveness. However, even if we immediately Taking measures to change the current bad trend will only see the effect in 10 to 20 years.” A workforce who graduated in 2004 with a degree in science and technology should have taken the necessary mathematics electives when he was in middle school 14 years ago courses, so as to lay the foundation for their future professional study.Therefore, if some middle school students make the same choice today, they will not become the pillars of the country until at least 2018 or 2020. "If this development trend is not changed now, by 2020 we will find that the innovative ability of American research and educational institutions has been damaged, and it has lost its leading position relative to other countries in the world." The National Science Council said. "To make matters worse, this talent shortage is occurring as the world becomes flatter. Domestic jobs in the U.S. are growing at 5 percent a year for people with STEM backgrounds," says the National Science Council. "By comparison, The average annual growth rate of the supply of other jobs is only a little over 1%." 2001 "9.11 Incident" Previously, the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that occupations requiring STEM skills were growing three times faster than all other occupations.Unfortunately, according to the National Science Council report, the average age of the available STEM workforce is rising. "Many of the people who entered the technology workforce in the 1960s and 1970s (those people born during the U.S. baby boom period of 1946-1964 after World War II) were expected to retire within the next 20 years, yet the children of these people Among them, far fewer of them are choosing majors like their parents than they were decades ago." The National Science Board says, "Furthermore, the percentage of women choosing to major in mathematics and computer science fell by 4 points from 1993 to 1999. percent.” The National Science Council’s 2002 data analysis also showed that the number of doctorates awarded in science and engineering in the United States dropped from 29,000 in 1998 to 27,000 in 1999.The total number of college students majoring in engineering in the United States fell by 12 percentage points between the 1980s and 1998. However, the growth rate of the U.S. science and technology workforce is still higher than the growth rate of science and engineering degrees.The reason is that many foreign-born science and engineering graduates immigrate to the United States.Since the 1990s, the proportion of foreign-born students among science and engineering students at American universities has continued to rise steadily.The same trend can be seen in the world of work, with the National Science Council saying that overall, from 14 percent in 1990, foreign students with bachelor's degrees accounted for 100 percent of U.S. science and engineering jobs in the ensuing decade. The percentage rose from 11% to 17% for a master's degree, from 19% to 29% for a master's degree, and from 24% to 38% for a doctorate. By attracting scientists and engineers to the United States, we can maintain the growth of the American science and engineering workforce without incurring the long-term educational costs of doing so. The opposite trend is that as the world becomes flatter and more connected, foreigners can do innovative work for the United States even if they don't immigrate to the United States.They can do the world's best job for the world's best company and earn a decent salary without leaving their homes. "The so-called globalization is to create jobs for them in their homeland," said Allen, president of the Institute of International Education."So they're saying, 'I still feel good about my hometown, I'm more comfortable in my hometown than in New York,'" Goodman said. All these problems are solved, they can do their jobs at home. This trend started even before the visa difficulties caused by 9/11, and the brain drain replaced the brain inflow around 2000.” Research by the National Science Council shows: "Since the 1980s, other countries have increased investment in science and technology education and human resources in science and technology, and their growth rates have been higher than in the United States. From 1993 to 1997, OECD (Economic Cooperation and Development Organization, which includes 40 countries with highly developed market economies) The national demand for scientific and technological professionals has increased by 23%, which is more than twice the 11% increase in the United States.” In addition, the study also shows that since Since the "9.11" terrorist attacks, due to increased security restrictions at home and a decline in the number of foreign applicants, the United States has been slower to issue visas for foreign students and talents in science and engineering.