Chapter 14 Section 1 Sniper Point

00 The whole world is a big chessboard, and China is also a part of this chessboard.Only by understanding the direction of the big chess game can we truly understand the changes in the world and understand the evolution of China's trends.Therefore, we need to dissect the big international chess game bit by bit--when you walk in, you will find a completely different world, stand in it and see China's general trend, China's property market, stock market, China's future, everything It's all so clear. As the leader of the big chess game, the influence of the United States is unique.This is almost universally acknowledged.

The rescue of the U.S. economy is a "trilogy" that connects up and down and coordinates left and right. When all of this is completed and the U.S. economy truly recovers, it means that the U.S. must reset the big game.The United States must cover up its possible debt crisis in the future, so as to ensure that global resources flow to the United States and win the opportunity for the United States to realize economic recovery. In this case, the foreign aggressiveness of US policy will be revealed.why?As we all know, the U.S. government is an elected government. Regardless of whether the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is in power, it must satisfy the interests of the voters to the greatest extent in order to maintain its own mass base and political life. On November 3, 2010, the mid-term elections for the U.S. Congress came to an end. The Democratic Party suffered its biggest fiasco in more than 60 years: it lost control of the House of Representatives and retained a majority in the Senate with only a slight advantage.The fact that each of the two parties control one house means that it is more difficult for them to reach an agreement internally, such as increasing taxes to get rid of the crisis. They can only reach agreement on transferring the crisis externally to fight for the interests of the United States.This will inevitably strengthen its foreign aggression, rather than what many Chinese experts wish to think. This will help the two parties in the United States to achieve some kind of compromise in the mutual checks and balances, which is also beneficial to China.

At the same time, the American people have a deep-rooted awareness of human rights, which means that while the U.S. government is fighting for the interests of Americans overseas, it cannot do things that are too outrageous (after the prisoner abuse scandal was announced, we can see the protests of the American people No weaker than overseas), must follow the bottom line they can bear.These two factors determine that the U.S. government must maintain a balance, and if it is not careful, it will trigger public protests. This is fundamentally different from non-democratic regimes.Some global countries (such as some countries in Africa) can amass huge wealth and maximize their own interests by plundering their people internally.What they have to do is to maintain their domestic dominance unshakably. For this reason, they even do not hesitate to sell out their national interests in some aspects. How can they dare to plunder abroad?After all, once it attracts foreign enemies and suffers internal and external attacks, its ruling foundation will collapse in an instant.

The most precious wealth that a democratic regime brings to human beings is that it has built a system that enables various stakeholders to express their interests fairly, and makes the interests of all parties gradually tend to a balance point, thus realizing the prosperity of the people and the strength of the country, and the peaceful transfer and transition of political power. system.This fundamentally avoids the disadvantages of achieving regime change through bloody conflicts, minimizes costs, and accumulates wealth. Just imagine, if China's Ming Dynasty began to establish a civilization system similar to that of the West and stepped into the track of democracy, which country in the world today would dare to stand shoulder to shoulder with China?Until the Ming Dynasty, China was still at the forefront of the world in terms of scientific and technological inventions. The scale and technical level of Zheng He's fleet alone are enough to amaze the world.It was not until the Qing Dynasty that it completely declined.In the book "China: A Land of Inventions and Discoveries" written by American Robert KG Temple, the 100 world-leading inventions in China are listed, basically all of which were in the Ming Dynasty and before the Ming Dynasty, and almost none in the Qing Dynasty. In 1820, China's GDP was about seven times that of Britain, but it was defeated by Britain in the Opium War from 1840 to 1842.Because a very high share of the GDP of the Qing Dynasty was the royal gardens and the priceless works of art stored in them. In 1895, one of the important reasons why Empress Dowager Cixi failed to carry on the war with Japan was that she was worried that the Japanese invaded Beijing, causing her beloved Summer Palace to repeat the same mistakes as the Yuanmingyuan. ①

Of course, history cannot be assumed, and we return to the topic. Although the United States has taken a very prudent and solid road to economic recovery, it has a huge weakness, that is, it also has a serious debt crisis.To put it lightly, as long as the issuance of U.S. treasury bonds is blocked, it will become an unbearable burden for the U.S. economy.To put it more seriously, once the weakness of the U.S. debt is exposed, it will inevitably lead to capital flight, and even detonate the world's worst, most serious, and most irreparable debt crisis. Therefore, on the one hand, the United States saves its own economy through tax cuts and other measures with great fanfare; Undoubtedly a shortcut.Wall Street predators, in their own deep crisis, in order to divert people's attention away, to buy more time for themselves, and to reduce the interference and concerns of the government in helping themselves, after the defects of the euro were exposed, , launched a sniper operation, which exposed the debt problems of the euro countries more thoroughly, attracted the attention of the world, and indirectly won more time and space for the overall economic recovery of the United States.

This is actually a common practice in the United States. In the 1980s, the U.S. balance of payments deficit increased, and the international community began to have doubts and fears about the value of the U.S. dollar. When the authority of the U.S. dollar was dusted, the U.S. and other developed countries forced Japan to sign the "Plaza Accord", which eventually destroyed the value of the yen. Influence is a classic case. When you cannot do better than your competitors, it is also a good choice to let your opponents do worse than yourself. If you understand this idea, it is not difficult to understand the various abnormal situations that occurred after the subprime mortgage crisis: Those countries affected by the subprime mortgage crisis are worse than the United States, the birthplace of the subprime mortgage crisis. Of course, many countries that have done worse are more due to their own reasons.Out of the need to seek profit and cover up its ugliness (to avoid a deeper and wider spread of the crisis), Wall Street took advantage of the shortcomings of relevant countries to launch sniper operations.

It is difficult to achieve this, and requires strong financial strength, abundant cutting-edge talent pool and rich experience.Whether it is the U.S. government or Wall Street, in this regard, in today's world, there is no one with the right. Therefore, they are able to enjoy the currency war like a fish in water and have both ways.The expansion of sovereign debt has left a natural flaw: Rating agency Moody's believes that from the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007 to the end of 2010, the total amount of global sovereign debt will increase by more than 50%, reaching 15.3 trillion US dollars.The Dubai incident is just the beginning. Even if the governments of various countries take remedial measures, the total amount of global sovereign debt will increase by at least another 50%, reaching the peak in 4 to 5 years. ②

And this flaw has been exploited to the extreme by Wall Street. I have done an analysis in the book "What to do in China--When the Subprime Mortgage Crisis Changes the World". At that time, I thought that the Icelandic crisis was just a guinea pig. Against the euro.And, in the book, I wrote that 2010 was the year of the first decisive battle between the US dollar and the euro: "In 2000, the European Parliament formulated the 'Lisbon Agenda', which determined that by 2010 the EU would be built into 'the world's most competitive , the most dynamic knowledge-based economy'. Doesn't this goal indicate the date of the decisive battle between the United States and Europe?" ③

The attack on the euro was so meticulously planned that it made people feel chilled. I have done a lot of work trying to find this context. Let's make a timetable: European crisis worsened: From March to July 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis that had spread to Europe worsened in Europe.Since the United States kept downplaying the crisis and covering up the truth at the initial stage of the subprime mortgage crisis, a large amount of money was triggered to go to the United States to buy the bottom. By the end of 2007, European countries alone had injected more than 1 trillion US dollars to save the subprime mortgage crisis.Until February 11, 2008, in the annual "President's Economic Report" signed by Bush, he also believed that the US economy would continue to grow in 2008 and would not fall into recession.By the time Europe really realized that the severity of the crisis was beyond imagination, the crisis had spread rapidly to Europe.The more critical issues are: first, after Europe "transfused blood" to the United States, it lacked bailout funds; second, European countries were restricted by their political systems and could not expand their government deficits like the United States, but had to reduce their fiscal deficits.

Iceland crisis: It started in March and April 2008 and worsened in October of that year. In March 2008, the US$500 million loan agreement reached between the Central Bank of Iceland and the Bank for International Settlements expired. Later, Iceland approached the Bank for International Settlements to renew the contract, but was rejected. In April 2008, Iceland's central bank sought to sign a currency swap agreement with the Bank of England, the Bank of England, but was rejected. ④ From August 2007 to August 2008, the Icelandic krona depreciated by 45.9%, and the purchasing power of residents declined accordingly.

Dubai Crisis: On November 25, 2009, amazing news came from the heavily indebted Emirate of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates: Dubai announced that it would reorganize its largest corporate entity "Dubai World" (a business group that spans real estate and ports), and at the same time announced that it will suspend Dubai World's debt repayments for six months. On November 26, 2009, the US dollar index began to rebound after reaching a low of 74.18. After Dubai, Greece was the first to be attacked because it was the most vulnerable.The European Commission has predicted that by 2011, the proportion of Greece's public debt in the country's total GDP will rise from 113% to 135%. Greek debt crisis: On December 8, 2009, Fitch International Credit Ratings downgraded Greece's long-term sovereign credit rating by one notch, from "A-" to "BBB+". On December 16, Standard & Poor's announced that it would lower Greece's long-term sovereign credit rating by one notch, from "A-" to "BBB+".This is the first time in the past 10 years that Greece's sovereign credit rating has fallen below A.The Greek stock market plummeted immediately, and the exchange rate between the euro and the dollar also fell sharply. On December 22, 2009, Moody's announced that it would downgrade Greece's sovereign rating from A1 to A2, with a negative rating outlook.The three rating giants shot at the same time, and Greece was in deep trouble. Looking at the times when the above crises worsened, Wall Street was in deep trouble due to the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis. At the same time, the US government was also troubled by debt, unemployment and other problems, and the dollar was also at a low point.The occurrence of these external crises instantly attracted the attention of the world, giving Wall Street time to redeem itself, and giving the United States more time to deal with difficult problems. The deterioration of the European economic situation may in turn provide the United States with a buffer opportunity . When the European crisis spread, a large amount of safe-haven funds flowed to the United States, which brought urgently needed funds for economic recovery to the United States and suspended the decline of the dollar-although the United States implements a weak dollar policy, it does not want the influence of the dollar to be abolished (The specific reasons will be analyzed in more detail later). It is necessary to implement a weak dollar policy while maintaining the hegemony of the dollar.It is difficult for ordinary countries to maintain this balance of opposition and contradiction, but the United States can do it. And, when the dollar is low, speculators who attack other economies, whether it's Wall Street or the US government, bear the least cost.Because, if the dollar is at a high level, it will cause chaos in other economies, especially those that compete with the United States, which will lead to a rapid rise in the dollar and a major impact on the export strategy of the United States--in the context of the spread of the crisis Under the current situation, the importance of exports to the United States has increased significantly. This is something that speculators must be wary of. Although Wall Street hated Obama's strict regulatory policies at certain times, they desperately needed government assistance during the crisis stage and had to rely on the government. What's more, Obama did not really liquidate Wall Street-many of the culprits of the past are still Live a carefree life. Therefore, Wall Street must be careful to maintain a high degree of consistency with the US government's international strategy, otherwise it may burn itself into a cocoon.In fact, while pursuing their own interests, maintaining the maximization of national interests has always been the rule strictly followed by the speculators in the United States. To be precise, what they are afraid of is not the US government, which is a small government with limited power. What they are afraid of is the people behind the US government.They will be cast aside by the people if they harm the interests of the country, which means that their careers in the United States will come to an end! More importantly, when the crisis in Europe and other economies worsened, the US quantitative easing monetary policy was implemented smoothly.The spread and deterioration of the subprime mortgage crisis in Europe provided a natural barrier for the Federal Reserve to start printing money.Just imagine, if Bernanke does not have the premise that the European economies will deteriorate, once the Fed's money printing machine starts, it will inevitably shake the global dominance of the US dollar. Affected by expectations of the Icelandic crisis and a possible crisis in Europe, the United States has more room to maneuver. On March 18, 2009, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced that "in order to improve the conditions of the private lending market", he will buy a total of US$300 billion in long-term US treasury bonds within the next six months.At the same time, it decided to increase its holdings of mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by US$750 billion to US$1.25 trillion, and increase its holdings of institutional bonds issued by the "two rooms" by US$100 billion to US$200 billion. The euro crisis triggered by the Greek debt crisis enabled the Federal Reserve to launch the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy on November 3, 2010 - to purchase 600 billion U.S. long-term treasury bonds by the end of June 2011 to further stimulate the U.S. economy recovery. Is this just a random coincidence?Although the crisis in Europe is caused by its inherent defects, who has enough reason to completely rule out the traces of man-made manipulation in the above logical relationship?I don’t buy into conspiracy theories, but I also don’t buy into the wishful thinking on the far right that treats an economy like a saintly saint.The reason is very simple, the more democratic the economy is, the more it will do everything possible to fight for the interests of the people. The game between countries has never stopped. People hope that this world is like a fairy tale, but in fact, such a fairy tale does not exist in the economic world, or in other words, does not exist between countries.As for countries with different ideologies, the game will undoubtedly be more intense and cruel. George Soros In fact, from the great crisis of the capitalist world in 1929 to the subprime mortgage crisis this time, in each crisis, the relevant countries fought openly and covertly and passed the crisis on to each other, all of which were naked.For example, during the crisis in Southeast Asia, Japan was beggar-thy-neighbor and greatly devalued the yen, causing China to suffer huge costs and great pain.However, the influence of the smart Japanese in Southeast Asia has gradually declined. In order to explain more clearly the game between countries in the crisis, we need to make a further analysis in depth.Because this kind of sniping is no longer far away from China.When the United States is tortured by the debt problem, it is the time for its attack. Many people believe that the attack on the euro began in February 2010. The Wall Street Journal reported on February 25, 2010 that representatives of Soros Fund Management and several other fund companies (including well-known hedge funds SAC Capital, Greenlight Capital, etc.) recently participated in a private meeting in New York. Dinner, they expect the euro to fall to the level of 1 euro to 1 dollar.Soros publicly warned in late February 2010 that the euro would collapse if the EU did not resolve its financial problems. In 1992, Soros shorted the British pound on a large scale and made a net profit of US$1 billion.Soros itself is a banner, and its appeal is unparalleled. Within a week after the "dinner party", shorting euro futures contracts reached as high as 60,000, the highest since 1999, and the euro exchange rate also fell accordingly. But even without the lead time, the attack on the euro was not February 2010, when the attack began with the Dubai crisis. Who has been seriously injured by the Dubai crisis? The difference between the Dubai crisis and the Greek debt crisis is only about 10 days. The two seem to be completely isolated and unrelated two crises, but in fact they are not. If there is no Dubai crisis first, the consequences of the Greek debt crisis will It doesn't magnify and spread to such a dramatic degree quickly. What is it connected with? Let's clear the fog. Dubai has created a glorious history that attracted worldwide attention. Ten years ago, Dubai was little known, but the old Sheikh of Dubai, Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, had drawn up a clear blueprint for development: getting rid of dependence on oil, relying on advanced facilities and superior geographical location and re-export Advantages such as trade have developed Dubai in the direction of commerce and trade, making commerce the second largest economic pillar after the oil industry. After more than ten years of development, Dubai is now often hailed as the Pearl of the Gulf, Hong Kong in the East, New York in the United States, and Venice in Italy.Foreigners who have been to Dubai, rich or poor, regardless of their religious beliefs, think that Dubai is an open, inclusive, and easy-to-survive city, which is why some people are still With the whole family, I chose to settle down in Dubai, and lived for 10, 20, or even longer at once. ⑤ Dubai's success has amazed the world, but it has also gone to its own mind.Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates, wrote affectionately in his book: "The leaders of Dubai have inherited from their fathers a clear vision for the development of Dubai, and their The goal is the same: to secure the future of fellow countrymen and foreigners who settle here, trying to provide them with comfort and security. However, Father's vision was truly ahead of his time. His one eye is through the gates of the 'past' , the other eye passes through the gate of the 'future'. Today, as long as you stand in front of the Dubai World Financial Tower and look far away, you will see this amazing scene connecting the past and the future. This spectacular scene makes Dubai and the Middle East to see the world, and let the world see Dubai and the Middle East."⑥ It is a pity that the current helmsman in Dubai has neither been able to see through the past and the future, nor has he seen clearly the current crises.When they stood at gunpoint, they were still looking back on the wonderful past and looking forward to the wonderful future. There are two fatal injuries in the process of Dubai's development: bubbles and debts. The external debt of "Dubai World" is as high as 59 billion US dollars, accounting for 74% of Dubai's total debt.After Dubai's "debt crisis" came out, credit rating agencies Standard & Poor's and Moody's immediately downgraded the credit rating of Dubai's state-owned enterprises.In the London financial market, the credit default swap (CDS) interest rate, which reflects the risk scale of Dubai's debt default, skyrocketed. It is worth noting the following information: According to reports, the largest creditors of "Dubai World" are Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (the third largest bank in the UAE) and UAE NBD PJSC, and other lenders include HSBC Holdings, Barclays Bank, Lloyds Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds Bank and Credit Suisse Bank and many other well-known global banks, and they have been hit hard by the financial crisis before. If you take a closer look, you will find that, except for Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and UAE NBD PJSC Bank, the rest of the lenders are all European banks: HSBC Holdings - the largest bank in Europe; Royal Bank of Scotland - the second largest commercial bank in the UK and Europe, and the fifth largest commercial bank in the world; Barclays Bank - the third largest bank in the UK; Lloyds Bank - the oldest bank in the UK and the fourth largest bank in the UK; Lloyds Bank - one of the four largest private banks in the UK; Credit Suisse Bank - Switzerland's second largest banking group. Following the subprime mortgage crisis, European financial institutions were once again damaged in the Dubai crisis -- no matter how insignificant the scale of the damage is, because people are still in the shadow of the subprime mortgage crisis, they will unnaturally magnify the crisis in fear Influence, the effect was like the last straw that broke the camel's back. Hit by the Dubai crisis, the already fragile ability of European financial institutions to resist the crisis has become weaker. On the other hand, the Dubai crisis is equivalent to testing the waters for the rich Arab countries. Of course, it is also a warning. When the rich Arab countries are helpless in the face of the Dubai crisis, how can they spend a lot of money to help others? Economies - say, Europe, which is close to it?From this perspective, the Dubai crisis is actually equivalent to shielding an important helper in Europe. Moreover, the Dubai crisis has dealt a fatal blow to Arab countries that are trying to get rid of the limitations of traditional energy sources and are moving towards transformation.As a dazzling star in the entire Middle East, the success of Dubai is a model and a forerunner for the entire Arab world.Dubai made them see the hope of transformation, but the Dubai crisis extinguished their hope, and they continued to be "oil sellers". This is obviously beneficial to Wall Street's manipulation of oil prices. Thirdly, the Dubai crisis, and the actions of the people in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and other countries who fought for democracy after that, triggered a strong confrontation between the government and the public.The turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa has prompted a large number of rich people to transfer funds to developed countries, especially the United States has become the biggest beneficiary.Notes on this point are not hard to find in news reports. On February 7, 2010, U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner made it clear in an exclusive interview with ABC TV's "This Week" that when investors feel uneasy about the global financial crisis, they choose the U.S. dollar and U.S. treasury bonds as a safe haven. A very important sign of basic confidence in our abilities. Leaving these aside for the time being, let’s go back and analyze the Dubai crisis. After the Dubai crisis, the spearhead finally pointed to the euro country. All the previous preparations were for such a goal. This bloody fight has become the most quiet and thrilling page in the currency war in the 21st century. After Dubai, not only was the "pilot work" of the euro sniping completed, but the periphery of the euro country was basically shielded. Since the advent of the euro, the most ferocious attack on the euro began. The euro has become the target of sniping, and the hunt has begun, and this breakthrough is Greece. Notes: ①Why China’s world’s largest GDP was beaten during the Qing Dynasty. Youth Reference, 2009-11-14 ②Daily Telegraph (English), 2009-11-27 ③Shi Hanbing. What to Do in China. Machinery Industry Press, 2009 ④ Former Prime Minister of Iceland on Trial for Financial Crisis or Faces Two Years in Prison. Beijing Daily, 2010-9-30 ⑤Yang Weiguo, Wang Yanfen. Dubai: The Miracle of the Desert. World Knowledge Publishing House, 2006 ⑥(United Arab Emirates) Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. My Vision: Meeting Challenges and Pursuing Excellence. Translated by Zhang Hong et al. Foreign Language Teaching and Research Press, 2007