Chapter 9 Section 1 Chinese-style rescue of the market (Part 1): Investing in a game of life and death

00 The development trend of the economy is closely related to everyone's vital interests.Many people want to know the future in order to plan ahead and adjust their thinking, strategies and plans early. To predict future trends requires insight into the sources of the past.Because, the trend is coherent, and it is a link between the past and the future. Some fundamental factors start from an important node in the past.To study the trend, this node must be found. Studying economic trends is challenging. This is especially true in China.On the one hand, it is plagued by various false data. On the other hand, policies have a huge influence on the economy, and some policies have obvious characteristics of "short-term" thinking, which are unpredictable and unpredictable.In addition, the policies issued by various government departments and local governments often conflict and exclude each other, resulting in many policies being aborted before they start to be implemented.Some other policies are selectively implemented by local governments and relevant departments-those that are beneficial to their own interests will be double-enforced; otherwise, they will be resisted.

These have created considerable difficulties for judging the development trend of China's economy.However, this does not mean that the law of the trend cannot be found.On the contrary, it is precisely because of the existence of these disadvantages that if they are used well, they will become the basis for a clearer judgment of the trend.If we straighten out the interest demands of various stakeholders and the energy to realize their own interests, that is, use the "interest analysis method" to grasp the laws, many trends will become very clear. Since I wrote "What to do in China--When the Subprime Mortgage Crisis Changes the World", I began to try to inject forward-looking trend prediction content. In fact, the important trends predicted in this book written in 2008 are basically got verified.I wish each of my books had this kind of forward-looking content to make it more valuable.Although my ability is limited, I do research and write with my heart, and try my best to do well.

To understand the future of the Chinese economy, one must gain insight into the past.Because, the trend is coherent.Without a deep and clear understanding of the past, it will be difficult to understand the logic and thinking of the author's judgment on future trends.This is extremely important, especially for a country like China where administrative power dominates economic development, where the causal relationship between the ins and outs of policies and economic trends is clearer. We might as well start with the rescue policy after the subprime mortgage crisis, and then slowly find the signpost leading to the future trend...

Go back in time to the bloody time of 2008. September 2008 was the most intensive month of disasters triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis. On September 7, the United States issued a rescue policy to take over two major housing mortgage financing institutions, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. On September 14, Bank of America reached an agreement with Merrill Lynch Securities, the third largest investment bank in the United States, to acquire the latter for approximately US$44 billion.Merrill Lynch, which has a history of 94 years, has become a passing cloud. On September 15, the US securities giant Lehman Brothers, which was in deep business crisis, announced that it would apply for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11 of the US federal "Bankruptcy Code" due to the breakdown of negotiations on the relief plan.Founded in 1850, the tragic fate of the 158-year-old Lehman Brothers shocked the world.

The stock markets of the United States, Europe, and Asian countries were devastated and miserable. The external tragedies have shocked China's decision-makers, and China's policy positioning has therefore undergone major adjustments. On September 15, 2008, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the benchmark interest rate for RMB loans and the RMB deposit reserve ratio for small and medium-sized financial institutions. It is worth noting that this interest rate adjustment is the first time the People's Bank of China has lowered the loan interest rate in the past four years and the deposit reserve ratio for the first time in the past nine years.

Behind this vigorous action is the extreme concern of the Chinese monetary authorities about the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis.The sense of urgency brought about by this worry has directly affected the economic and monetary policies of many countries in the world.China stands out in particular. On October 17, 2008, Premier Wen Jiabao presided over the executive meeting of the State Council to deploy the economic work in the fourth quarter, and changed the macroeconomic control target from "one guarantee and one control" to "preservation first"; on October 21, the State Council held another executive meeting Approved a number of construction projects and major projects, and issued a signal of "expanding investment and preventing economic downturn"; on November 5, Wen Jiabao presided over the third executive meeting of the State Council, changing "guaranteeing growth" to "promoting growth" and clearly proposing There are 10 specific measures to stimulate the economy, with a planned investment of 4 trillion yuan. Moreover, Wen Jiabao especially emphasized: "Hands must be ruthless, punches must be heavy, measures must be accurate, and work must be solid." China's economic stimulus and determination have made the whole world Shocked.According to Xinhua News Agency, on November 10, the State Council held a meeting in Beijing of the principal responsible comrades of provincial, municipal and municipal people's governments and State Council departments. The 16-character requirements of "Real" further say that "quick" means to act quickly, race against time, and not delay the opportunity; "heavy" means to implement resolute and forceful measures to fundamentally reverse the downward trend of excessive economic growth; "accurate" "It is to grasp the key points, highlight the key points, and have an immediate effect; "real" means to grasp the implementation.

The National Development and Reform Commission, the central bank and other major ministries and commissions also urgently deployed various tasks.It has been rare for many years for the State Council to deploy so intensively in response to the national economic situation. So, where is China's problem?What is the root cause?Why is China's highest level so urgent?This is the most important factor we must understand to grasp the future trend. To study China's economy, we must not only be familiar with important Western economic classics, but also be familiar with the way of thinking and logic with Chinese characteristics-this is especially important.Otherwise, studying the Chinese economy is like a blind man feeling an elephant, who will never see clearly.

Researchers in Western countries can't understand many economic logics in China, let alone ordinary Chinese people?For example, some economists pointed out: "In order to achieve the goal of reform, one generation must be sacrificed. This generation is 30 million old workers. More than 800 million farmers and laid-off workers are China's huge wealth. Without their hard work, how can there be a few people?" It is very necessary for them to exist and maintain the current state. China should use employment to promote employment, because a group of people are employed, and they will spend the money immediately, and other people will have the opportunity to make money... ...Should China improve the welfare and social security system? I suggest canceling the so-called endowment insurance, unemployment insurance, work-related injury insurance and other benefits in order to maintain everyone's enthusiasm and ability for work." ①For another example, some economists proposed: "I It is gratifying to regard traffic jams as a sign of a city’s prosperity. If a city does not have traffic jams, its economy may also wither and decline... (The 1998 catastrophe) The flood stimulated demand, drove growth, and ran out of water Millions of houses were destroyed, so the flood boosted China's economic growth by 1.35%."②

Chinese economists are enough to overwhelm the whole world. When domestic economists study the economy, they are accustomed to using the "troika" (investment, export, and consumption) for analysis and demonstration, which is different from the research habits of the West.Just like the term "structural inflation", it is very popular and familiar in China.I entrusted several friends who are studying economics in well-known foreign universities to ask their tutors for advice, and they all answered "I have never heard of this expression".Therefore, many people listen to Chinese economists talking about economic issues, and feel that they are like aliens visiting the earth for the first time.

To study China's economic trends, analysis must be done according to China's logic and way of thinking.Because this is the source of ideas and logic for when China will formulate relevant policies. Let's take a look at the "troika" of investment, export and consumption. Among investment, export, and consumption, the United States is absolutely dominated by consumption, and the proportion of consumption to GDP is basically above 70% (in 2009, the weight of US consumption to GDP was 73%). It is related to the dominant idea of ​​people's wealth, and the people are the main force of consumption and the most important driving force of economic growth.

In China, the contribution rate of consumption to GDP is relatively small.Before 2007, investment and exports accounted for about 80% of China's GDP, while consumption accounted for only about 20%.This is related to the small share of the people in China's national income distribution.Therefore, in China, the government is the leader of the "troika". The formation of China's economic structure is determined by the trend in the distribution of national income, where residents' incomes decline while government incomes rise.Before the Fifth Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress carried out special investigations on important issues including national income distribution. The members who participated in the investigation lamented that the problem of income distribution was more serious than expected.Some members pointed out that China is already one of the countries with the largest gap between rich and poor in the world.Li Mingzhi, Director of the Economic Office of the National People's Congress Finance and Economics Committee, who directly participated in the research work, believes that the main problems in the distribution of national income can be summarized as "two proportions and one gap": "two proportions" refers to the decline in the proportion of residents' income in national income, Income distribution is tilted towards the government; the proportion of labor remuneration in the primary distribution is reduced, and the primary distribution is tilted towards capital.Since the 1990s, among the three main elements of income distribution, the income of residents has grown the slowest, while the growth of the government and enterprises has been faster.Although there are different calculation methods for government revenue, such as whether to include extra-budgetary revenue such as land transfer fees, all parties participating in the survey agree that government revenue has grown rapidly in recent years. ③ This distribution pattern is one of the root causes of the abnormal development of China's economy.Not only in the past, but also in the future, this difficult problem will be encountered more frequently. When the subprime mortgage crisis developed to 2008, China's export situation suddenly dropped, and it can even be described as a drastic drop.The proportion of exports to GDP dropped sharply from 37.5% in 2007 to 4.75% in 2008.From a single month perspective, in November 2008, my country's exports fell by 2.2% year-on-year, and imports fell by 17.9%; in December 2008, my country's exports fell by 2.8% year-on-year, and imports fell by 21.3% year-on-year; 17.5%, and imports fell by 43.1% year-on-year... ④Although this is the data after the introduction of the 4 trillion rescue plan, but before that, the central government has strongly anticipated this decline, and this concern is largely reflected in the In the next series of decisions. Now we analyze one by one: Among the "troika", exports have declined, and they have declined rapidly, and the remaining two are investment and consumption.Everyone knows that the root cause of consumption's repeated failure is the poverty of the Chinese people and the unsound social security system, which is difficult to change in the short term.Then, what can be counted on is, of course, the government's favorite investment.However, the investment is short of money: Since 1978, the central finance has been in deficit in all years except 1985, which had a book balance of 2.5 billion yuan. After the reform of the tax-sharing system in 1994, most of the local finances were in deficit. By the end of 2007, the balance of China's local debt was about 4 trillion yuan. Policy makers suddenly discovered that the Chinese economy was facing a huge threat: in the layout of the three elements of export, consumption and investment, it was almost a game of dead chess!Exports are declining, investment is short of funds, and consumption has been sluggish for a long time.Almost all the troikas have come to a standstill! So, how to bring this chessboard alive? Funds must be raised, used for investment, and revitalized investment—this is the basic idea for China to solve economic problems. According to the practice of Western countries, the first is large-scale tax cuts: tax cuts for companies can help companies tide over the difficulties in the crisis, improve their viability, keep jobs from being lost, and lay the foundation for economic recovery.Tax cuts for individual residents can increase the people's ability to resist risks, reduce their worries, and enable the people's consumption capacity to maintain a stable state as soon as possible, waiting for the economic recovery. China, however, is taking a relatively radical route - led by government investment, activating real estate through pouring credit, in order to revitalize the entire chess game.The logical relationship here is: Once the credit pours down, it will inevitably arouse public concerns about currency depreciation. Under the impetus of this panic, a large amount of funds will flow into the real estate market, thereby activating the entire real estate market. That is to say, China's economic recovery policy is based on real estate as a breakthrough - this is the beginning of China's big chess game. Among all the ways to increase income, there are two most direct: one is to sell land; the other is to increase corporate taxes and fees. If you want to sell land, you must raise the land price, and if you want to raise the land price, you must support the house price.The huge amount of credit has finally completed this mission. When the credit is flooded into the market, almost everyone is convinced that the depreciation of the currency is almost inevitable, and the rise of housing prices is of course inevitable.Under such strong, clear and even fearful expectations, both those who actually need housing and those who speculate in real estate frantically poured into the real estate market. Let’s take a look back at the mortgage data for the year: In November 2008, new loans amounted to 476.9 billion yuan. In December 2008, new loans amounted to 771.8 billion yuan. In January 2009, new loans amounted to 1.62 trillion yuan. In February 2009, new loans amounted to 1.07 trillion yuan. In March 2009, new loans amounted to 1.89 trillion yuan. In April 2009, new loans amounted to 591.8 billion yuan. In May 2009, new loans amounted to 664.5 billion yuan. In June 2009, new loans amounted to 1.53 trillion yuan. ... The expansion of credit is a form of expansion of the money supply.As Professor Huang Da said: "Whether it is a planned economy or a market economy, the dynamics of money supply depends on the expansion and contraction of credit."⑤ In this case, the biggest factor affecting housing prices is no longer supply and demand, but money supply; housing at this time is no longer housing in the usual sense, but a financial product.The reason why China's housing prices have surpassed that of the United States—the absolute housing prices, not the housing prices converted relative to per capita income—is that the most fundamental reason is that China's broad money supply has surpassed that of the United States!Even without the introduction of relevant incentives, the real estate market can easily be activated.The release of a large amount of credit has become the engine for the resurgence of housing prices. While the supply of credit is increasing, China has introduced a large number of preferential policies in terms of housing loans and tax rates: In late October 2008, the State Council issued ten measures to expand consumption and stimulate domestic demand.Article 8 stipulates: "Financial institutions provide loans to residents for the first time to purchase ordinary self-housing and improved ordinary self-housing, and at the same time, lower the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans." On the evening of October 22, 2008, the Ministry of Finance announced that in addition to emphasizing the preferential policies for house purchases promulgated by the State Council, local governments can also formulate fee reduction policies to encourage housing consumption. Almost at the same time, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the one-year RMB deposit and loan benchmark interest rate for financial institutions starting from October 27, 2008; the minimum down payment ratio was adjusted to 20%.The vast majority of commercial banks have fully liberalized the second-home loan policy.A number of banks stated that as long as the customer's previous loan has been settled, no matter whether it is a second-home loan or a multiple-home loan, it can be implemented in accordance with the policy of the first-home loan. Speculative real estate speculation began to flood. The long-lost phenomenon of queuing up to buy houses began to appear. House prices are back on an upward trajectory. In June 2009, the average transaction price of commercial housing and residential buildings in Beijing was 13,302 yuan per square meter, an increase of 27% from January of that year.The property market in Guangzhou is also booming. In May 2009, 75% of real estate prices in Guangzhou had returned to the level of 2007. According to official data, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing nationwide reached 70 million square meters and 339.3 billion yuan respectively in May 2009, both hitting record highs. In May 2009, the national average sales price of commercial housing reached 4,847 yuan per square meter, a record high, up 33.79% from the lowest point of housing prices in 2008. ⑥ When the stock housing was snapped up quickly, the developers stood on the starting line of land grab again. In order to allow developers to have more funds to acquire land, the government quickly relaxed its policies on developers: On May 27, 2009, the State Council announced the adjustment results of the capital ratio of fixed asset investment projects. The most noteworthy thing is that the minimum capital ratio for investment in ordinary commercial housing projects was lowered from 35% to 20%.This is the first time since 2004 that the 35% self-owned capital loan ratio has been "loosened" for nearly 5 years. Boda, playing the game of empty gloves and white wolves. Local policies to support real estate are more radical.For example, in March 2009, Article 13 of the New Real Estate Policy issued by Guangdong Province stipulated that: For projects that signed a land transfer contract in 2008 and could not pay the land transfer price on time, the land user should apply for it and the local city, county With the approval of the people's government, the time limit for paying the land transfer price may be extended appropriately, and the extension time shall not exceed 2 years in principle. This provision actually breaks through the restrictions of laws and regulations. The "Idle Land Disposal Measures" passed by the Ministry of Land and Resources on April 26, 1999 stipulates that for idle land that has not been used for two consecutive years, the people's government at or above the county level shall take back the land use right of the land user free of charge upon the approval of the original approval authority. The effect of these practices is obvious.Not only did the developer who retreated from the land disappear without a trace, but the "Land King" reappeared, and many new faces appeared in the "Land King": the central enterprise--about its debut at a special moment, we are receiving When I come down, I will make an in-depth analysis and open up a world that many people ignore. All people know is that the "Land King" is back. Just take the data of June 2009 as an example: in June 2009, the total transaction price of residential land across the country was refreshed eight times, making it an out-and-out "Land King Month".Among them, on June 26, Chengdu Zhongze Real Estate, a subsidiary of China Electronics, defeated Vanke, China Resources, CITIC, Zhuzong, Financial Street, Beichen and other opponents at a price of 1.96 billion yuan, and won the Beijing Olympic Village land, making the building The surface price is as high as 15,216 yuan per square meter, making it the king of new places in both the total price and the average price in Beijing. On June 30, Sinochem Franshion Investment Management Co., Ltd. won the auction of Beijing Guangqu Road No. 15 for 4.06 billion yuan, and Beijing's new "Land King" was quickly refreshed.The two land kings are both from the background of central enterprises.In addition to Beijing, first-tier cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are also "land kings", and central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have acted as the main force of the new "land kings". It's really a delicate moment.Central enterprises acted as "land kings", which objectively raised land prices and pushed private real estate developers to an embarrassing front: either empty-handed, or land at a higher price. This kind of indescribable detail fully reveals the significance of central enterprises as land kings. On July 9, 2009, the relevant person in charge of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission publicly stated that the current bidding behavior of relevant enterprises is not considered to break through the restrictions on the main business.Moreover, those companies that have made gains are basically secondary or tertiary enterprises under the jurisdiction of central enterprises. "For them, it is difficult to bring them into the scope of supervision of the SASAC." In fact, the SASAC also has clear regulations on the use and flow of central enterprise funds.In August 2007, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued the "Notice on Further Regulating the Investment Management of Central Enterprises", which clearly stipulates that central enterprises must report to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission for approval. ⑦ The attitude of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is worth pondering. However, one thing is very clear, when the "land kings" appear one after another, the governments at all levels are the happiest, and they have quickly accumulated a large amount of funds for investment in a short period of time.The "land king" with a special role quietly completed his mission. At the same time, the taxation department intensified its tax collection and management efforts. First, it asked companies to pay back taxes through auditing accounts. Later, taxation departments in some places simply "discussed" with companies directly, reporting the amount so that companies could get money, or asking companies to pay taxes. Businesses prepay taxes for the second year in order to get things done. This increases the burden on enterprises is obvious. The policy idea is very clear: first, "raise" enough funds through the efforts of the real estate and taxation departments to support huge investment plans, activate investment, and then activate domestic demand through investment and the introduction of policies to encourage consumption.With these two prerequisites, we can wait for the international economic situation to improve and save China's exports. It must be said that large-scale investment is being rolled out. This kind of thinking is very bold, but it is also extremely risky. Because it is based on the consumption of stock wealth. In the absence of social security, once it fails, the people's ability to resist risks and crises will become weaker. Not only that.The property market bubble has been accumulating rapidly for more than ten years, and the public cannot bear the high housing price. Let the housing price fall, squeeze the bubble, make the housing price drop to the point where it is in line with the purchasing power of the public, and reactivate the transaction volume, which will promote the growth of the real estate market. With healthy development, the stimulating effect of real estate on more than 60 industries can also be brought into play again.Moreover, the savings of home buyers' funds can promote their consumption in other fields and activate domestic demand.At the same time, it can also reduce the general public's concerns about high housing prices in the future, which is also conducive to stimulating domestic demand. However, by loosening credit, a large number of precious funds will be attracted to the real estate market again, and the high housing prices will continue to be maintained at a high level, which will completely reverse the expectations of housing demanders on the possible decline in future housing prices, so that they have to buy houses at high levels and accept vested interests. Exploitation of interests.Although this approach temporarily activates the trading volume, it will cause endless troubles. First, when housing prices are at a high level, loosening credit and strengthening the role of bank funds in supporting real estate can easily create conditions for fake mortgages and increase systemic risks in the financial sector.In fact, the subprime mortgage crisis is related to the excessive involvement of financial institutions in the case of high housing prices.When the whole world is still worried about the resulting crisis and disaster consequences, China's support for high housing prices violates the basic economic law, and also loses a precious opportunity to self-squeeze the bubble and release risks. Second, when housing prices are still at a high level, consumers have to pay higher costs for buying a house, and the funds in their hands to deal with uncertain risks are reduced, which is likely to increase the swallowing effect of high housing prices on consumption. At the same time that the amount is reactivated, the consumption in other fields is compressed. Since China's real estate sector is a highly monopolized market, developers have strong pricing power over houses, and they can manipulate the market and control prices at will.Since there is no supply channel such as self-built housing, which challenges the monopoly position of developers, most of the housing needs of the people have to be met through the commercial housing market. This helpless situation has led to China's housing prices and housing supply being dominated by vested interest groups for a long time. Manipulation has caused the people to endure the plunder of vested interest groups for a long time and become a house slave. Here, it is also necessary to mention one point: another reason why some ministries and local government officials have the motivation to push up housing prices is welfare housing. In April 2010, the "Economic Observer" and other media publicly reported such an incident: In the past two years, many new buildings have been built in Sidaokou, Haidian District, Beijing, where the ministries and commissions are concentrated, and some of them have just been completed. Some are being renovated and some have been completed."Workers buy these new houses at a price of about 4,500 yuan per square meter", while the price per square meter of the commercial housing complex next to them is as high as 40,000 yuan. ⑧ The price of welfare housing is 88.75% cheaper than commercial housing!In other words, the price of commercial housing is 8.89 times that of welfare housing! We know from media reports that this kind of insider purchase of welfare housing is quite interesting as far as the state ministries and commissions are concerned-not only do they not feel the slightest pain from rising housing prices, they are also the most direct beneficiaries.As housing prices rise, these vested interests will not only feel no pressure, but will also share the higher price difference between commercial housing and welfare housing - the greater the price difference, the higher the profit they will get after selling welfare housing. This is tantamount to falling into a paradox: all real estate control policies are implemented by relevant ministries and local governments, and they are the biggest beneficiaries of the rapid rise in housing prices: privately, their welfare housing can be sold at high prices, plus real estate expansion Various black-box transactions; in public, land prices increase fiscal revenue, increase GDP, and gain more opportunities for promotion. The real estate control policy has been repeatedly resolved, which is directly related to this. We know that welfare housing is a product of the planned economic system. It is distributed to individuals in the form of unit benefits, and is generally sold to employees at cost prices.In other words, the price of welfare housing is the most real price after removing the profiteering factor! In 1998, Guofa No. 23 stipulated: "In a certain period of time, the State Administration Bureau and the Central Administration Bureau can organize the construction of affordable housing in a unified way, and sell it to the employees of the central government and state agencies in Beijing at the construction cost price." Therefore, the cost The low price has become the unspoken rule of welfare housing distribution.When the price difference between welfare housing and commercial housing was as high as 8.89 times, it completely exposed the so-called lie that there is no huge profit in China's housing prices, and intuitively brought out the severity of the housing price bubble! Welfare housing has seriously distorted China's housing security mechanism.While many low-income earners are still unable to obtain the most basic housing security, the super-welfare treatment received by civil servants has further squeezed public welfare resources. It is an open secret that ministries and commissions build welfare housing funds from fiscal revenues.As of April 11, 2010, a total of 35 central ministries and commissions had announced their departmental budgets for the year, with a total budget of nearly 284.834 billion yuan, of which 5.853 billion yuan was spent on housing security.Among them, the Ministry of Agriculture spends the most on housing security, reaching 1.35 billion yuan, followed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology with 759 million yuan, and the third place is the China Meteorological Administration with 753 million yuan⑨.The housing security expenditure mentioned here refers to expenditures such as housing provident funds, rent-raising subsidies, and housing purchase subsidies issued to employees by ministries, commissions, and subordinate units in accordance with national policies, rather than low-income housing expenditures. On the one hand, it is the excessive protection of housing welfare by the ministries and commissions; on the other hand, the protection of low-income people in society is seriously insufficient. In 2010, the National People's Congress report pointed out that the progress of affordable housing construction was slow. By the end of August 2009, only 39.49 billion yuan had been invested, with a completion rate of 23.6%.It is worth emphasizing that even this number is quite watery. For example, the welfare housing built by the above-mentioned ministries and commissions is generally included in the so-called affordable housing.This actually means that as civil servants who serve the people, they are close to the water, which makes the housing dream of low-income people who should enjoy housing security even more distant. In 1999, the State Council issued the "Implementation Plan for Further Deepening the Reform of the Housing System by the Central and State Agencies in Beijing" specifically aimed at civil servants, which stipulated that "from the end of 1998, the central and state agencies in Beijing will stop the distribution of housing in kind and gradually implement housing allocation in monetary terms." change". Unfortunately, these regulations were not respected. On the one hand, the policy of regulating housing prices has not been implemented. On the other hand, the policy of welfare housing, which is explicitly prohibited by the state, has been intensified. The deep-rooted problem exposed in this is the absence of power supervision and restriction mechanisms.Even the deputies to the National People's Congress who paid attention to this matter only expressed their concerns that "excessive housing security expenditures will make the common people unhappy", and there was no further comment. Now back to our subject. From the end of 2008 to the first half of 2009, China's rescue measures for real estate were an integral part of the overall chess game.From the perspective of economic security, China's bailout plan can only succeed but not fail, or even make any mistakes. It must succeed in one step.Fortunately, this time China has survived the most feared dilemma - at least China itself thinks so. At the beginning of October 2008, Wu Xiaoling, former deputy governor of the central bank and member of the monetary policy committee of the central bank, said that there are risks in the Chinese real estate market, and the government should not artificially prevent the decline of housing prices. "If the government artificially prevents the decline of real estate prices, then the US today is China's tomorrow". Wu Xiaoling’s words still ring in my ears. Looking back, what is the real estate situation we are facing today telling us?What will the future real estate trend tell us? One thing is certain, I believe that this sober and sane warning will be recalled in the future. Notes: ① Li Yining: Suggesting that China cancel pension insurance and other benefits. New Weekly. 2007-10-13 ②Compilation of 30 shocking quotations from economists who have great liquidation. New Express. 2009-1-8 ③The gap between the rich and the poor in the reform of income distribution far exceeds expectations. Finance and Economics, 2011-2-20 ④Peng Min, Lv Fengze. Analysis of China's domestic and foreign demand dilemma. China Enterprise News, 2009-9-8 ⑤Huang Da. Finance. Renmin University of China Press, 2004 ⑥Land King Appears, Bubble Appears. Southern Metropolis Daily, 2009-7-8 ⑦70% of central enterprises involved in real estate SASAC stranded real estate restructuring of central enterprises. China Times, 2009-8-9 ⑧Chen Wenya. Some civil servants in Beijing bought houses at an internal price of 4,500 yuan per square meter. Economic Observer, 2010-4-10 ⑨Wei Chengwu, Sun Qizi. 35 The central ministries and commissions have a budget of nearly 300 billion housing security expenditures of nearly 6 billion. The Economic Observer, 2010-4-13