Chapter 9 Chapter 07 His Ambition - Teaming up with Lee Teng-hui to win Taiwan's "Jiangshan"

Li Qingyuan Politics is the art of the "possible" and a masterful deception.There is no doubt that this passage has been applied to Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian.In the Taipei mayoral election campaign at the end of 1994, Chen Shui-bian was sent to the throne of mayor by "abandoning Huang and protecting Chen". Let me ask, who would dare to abandon Huang Dazhou without the "president" and the chairman of the Kuomintang party Lee Teng-hui operating under the table? ?In the 2004 general election, Lien Chan of the KMT, Chen Shui-bian of the DPP, and James Soong, an independent candidate, faced off against each other. It was exactly the same as the mayoral election in 1994.Both Lien Chan and Huang Dazhou are relatively weak. As long as Chen Shui-bian "abandons his company and protects Chen", Chen Shui-bian can benefit from it and win Taiwan's "Jiangshan" in one fell swoop.

Those who know the inside story know very well that until January 1999, Lee Teng-hui had no intention of handing over the post. In fact, when the "National Congress" amended the "Constitution" in 1999, the representatives of the "National Congress" staged a scandal to extend their tenure for more than two years, which was not originally planned.The original drama to be performed was that the term of Lee Teng-hui's "President" and the "National Representatives" were extended for more than two years.However, before Lee Teng-hui operated to amend the "constitution", he replaced the difficult-to-handle "National Congress Speaker" Qian Fu with Su Nancheng, whose social image and status were difficult to match the speaker's honor. The purpose was to give Su Nancheng this "historical mission."

But things backfired. Lee Teng-hui pointed out the "two-state theory" proposition, which shocked the multilateral relations between the mainland, Taiwan region and the United States, including the United States, which has the deepest influence on cross-strait relations. Furthermore, Lee Teng-hui's "presidential" medical team has reported that Lee Teng-hui's health has serious problems, especially the potentially fatal spleen tumor, which has caused tension in the medical team several times, and will invite spleen tumor experts from abroad for consultation.One of the characteristics of spleen tumors is high fever. In early 1999, Lee Teng-hui had several high fevers and was admitted to National Taiwan University Hospital. The inspection itinerary was cancelled, and he turned back halfway for medical treatment.

According to members of the medical team, the consultation result of the medical team in early 1999 was that if Lee Teng-hui's spleen tumor was to be treated with surgery, he would have to rest for half a year, and his government affairs would be difficult to promote.Otherwise, he will have to give up his extension and concentrate on treatment after resigning from office on May 20, 2004. Before treatment, Lee Teng-hui can no longer run around and work too hard, otherwise he will easily get sick.Obviously, on the one hand, Lee Teng-hui was under pressure from the United States, on the one hand, he chose not to be the current Russian President Yeltsin, and on the other hand, he was also under pressure from the Mesozoic generation Lien Chan in the party to run for the "presidential" election, so in February and March 1999 Decided to hand over the baton.

What's interesting is that Lee Teng-hui chose not to play halfway through Lee Teng-hui's plot to extend his tenure. The "Guo Dai" image of the shadow of "thief" was completely buried in an instant, and he became the "new thief" that everyone scolded. In fact, before Lee Teng-hui decided to hand over the post, until the end of 1998, no political observer in Taiwan dared to say categorically that Lee Teng-hui would not stand for re-election. In 1996 and 1997, two officials once said that Lee Teng-hui could be re-elected, and they both got "rewards".One is Xu Guilin, former secretary-general of the Central Election Commission.After Lee Teng-hui successfully participated in the re-election of the democratically elected "president", when he was interviewed by reporters, he openly said: "President Lee can be re-elected." Xu Guilin, who has been working for six years, receives ministerial treatment, and has no publications, will get the best way to retire when he gets old.

When Xu Guilin was exercising the approval right of examination committee members at the "National Assembly", "National Congress Representative" Li Qingyuan asked him, why Lee Teng-hui could be re-elected after 12 years as "President" after finishing his term?Without blushing and out of breath, he said: "This is the first term elected by the people"; In fact, what Xu Guilin said left a lot of room for imagination and flexibility for Lee Teng-hui's re-election. Another senior official who once said that Lee Teng-hui can be re-elected is Lin Fengzheng.Lin Fengzheng was the Minister of the Interior when Bai Xiaoyan's murder occurred in 1997. During his term of office, he also said similar things to Xu Guilin.Later, although Lin Fengzheng resigned in charge of the murder case, he was reused as the Minister of Transportation after half a year away, which surprised many people.Lin Fengzheng has the opportunity to take up the post of Minister of Communications. Without Lee Teng-hui's hand-picking, it is impossible for Xiao Wanchang, who is the executive president, to make the decision.

In addition, from Philippine President Marcos' continuous misinterpretation and revision of the Constitution, until he was re-elected until he was forced to flee, and Indonesian President Suharto happened in 1998, he worked for 30 years until the whole country took to the streets to ask him to step down , was forced to resign.The experience of these oriental nations actually has a high possibility of happening in Taiwan.The saddest thing is that when these authoritarians have been in power for a long time in the eastern nation, the ending is often that the prosperity, security, and social atmosphere all turn red.

Before Lee Teng-hui decided to hand over the baton, some people speculated: "In the 'presidential' election in 2000 AD, Lee Teng-hui will run for re-election, and his 'vice-president' partner is Chen Shui-bian." At the time, this speculation was said to be a fantasy, but in fact it did not come true.But is it really not fulfilled? If this passage is changed to: "In the 'presidential' general election in 2000 AD, Lee Teng-hui's real successor is Chen Shui-bian." Many people may nod in agreement.In fact, the meaning of the two paragraphs is the same, referring to the question of who the so-called "president" will succeed to.

Does Lee Teng-hui really want Lien Chan to succeed him? Lien Chan's talent and image, in the eyes of Lee Teng-hui, are even worse than that of Huang Dazhou, who lost the KMT's "Jiangshan" in Taipei. In the "presidential" general election in early 2004, Lien Chan, who was the "presidential" candidate of the Kuomintang, sometimes said that after being elected, he would not be controlled by Lee Teng-hui; In the medium-term stage of mutual trust and peaceful exchanges of the "Programme"; at one time, it was said that all the party properties of the Kuomintang should be trusted; at another time, it was said that Lee Teng-hui would hand over the party chairmanship in advance.With these arguments of "forcing the palace", does Lee Teng-hui really want to hand over the seal of the "president" to Lien Chan?

Sure enough, less than a month before the "presidential" election, there was news that the Lien Chan camp almost vomited blood.Legislators supporting the Song Dynasty revealed that Chen Shui-bian had a secret meeting with Lee Teng-hui at the "President's" official residence. Lien Chan should be well aware of the authenticity of this news.And in the media on February 18, 2004, it was reported that overseas "Friends of Lee Teng-hui Association" had spread the move of "abandoning Lian Baobian".And on this day, Ding Yuzhou, director of the "National Security Bureau" who is fully controlled by the "President", was the first to arrange for Chen Shui-bian to go to the "National Security Bureau" to listen to a briefing on the security situation.May I ask, without Lee Teng-hui's instruction behind the scenes, how many Ding Yuzhou dared to list Chen Shui-bian as the first briefing subject?Therefore, the situation is already very clear, and judging from the development of many political situations in the past, it seems to be no surprise.

From the perspective of political reality, if Lee Teng-hui wants to continue his power after leaving office, he must sit firmly as the chairman of the Kuomintang party. Let me ask, if Chen Shui-bian is really elected as the "president", not only will he not and cannot disturb the party power held by Lee Teng-hui, but even for the sake of With Lee Teng-hui's assistance, he had to help the fish, and the fish helped the water, to continue a certain amount of party power and other influences for Lee Teng-hui.However, if Lien Chan was elected, would Lee Teng-hui be so satisfied with the fact that he was surrounded by many non-mainstream forces of the former Kuomintang?I am afraid that Lee Teng-hui will soon have to further hand over the stick of the party chairman. In fact, politics is such a thing, anything can happen.This is like the Taiwan governor election in 1994. Wu Boxiong, the Minister of the Interior at the time, declared that even if Alishan was left in the end, he would run for the governorship to the end. When I got down to Alishan, I announced my withdrawal from the election with tears streaming down my face. Furthermore, Lee Teng-hui said several times that he would not run for re-election as "president" and that he would go to Nantou to become a pastor after retirement. Moreover.However, the epicenter of the "September 21" earthquake was in Nantou. Whether Lee Teng-hui dared to live in Nantou was a question. In particular, at the beginning of 1998, when Soong Chuyu's camp shouted: "Lian Song Pei", Su Zhicheng, Lee Teng-hui's popular secretary, was strongly dissatisfied, saying that if he continued to talk nonsense, he would say "Li Lian Pei" every day. The foreshadowing that Lee Teng-hui may not be handed over.At least it shows that James Soong is definitely not Lee Teng-hui's preferred successor in the future. Another example is that Ma Ying-jeou said 200 times that he would never run for the mayor of Taipei, but overnight, he became an absolute candidate, which shocked the political circles in Taipei.In June and July of 1997, when Ma Ying-jeou left the political arena from the status of political affairs committee member, he once said the famous saying "I don't know why I am fighting"; It is: "Fight for the citizens of Taipei". This speaks volumes for politics as the art of the "possible."Lee Teng-hui has long been interested in Chen Shui-bian's succession, and there is a track to follow. If you don’t forget, on May 7, 1994, during the visit to Costa Rica, “President Lee Teng-hui” uttered a famous “dream” at the joint press conference held with the new Costa Rica President Figueres: "I have a dream, and I hope that in my lifetime, I will have the opportunity to transfer power to another person peacefully." As soon as this passage was uttered, people interpreted it differently. In fact, the key to interpreting this passage is, in Lee Teng-hui's mind, who is the person who really wants to "peacefully transfer power"? For a long time in the past, people have interpreted it as Lien Chan, the current vice president, because Lien Chan's promotion map all the way, including "Minister of Transportation", "Minister of Foreign Affairs", "Chairman of the Province", "President of the Executive Committee", to "Executive Minister". Almost all the official positions from "Dean" and "Vice President" to full-time "Vice President" were "blessed" by Lee Teng-hui, so Lien Chan seemed to be Lee Teng-hui's natural successor. But is this really the case?Frankly speaking, when things turned to the "presidential" election, the members of Lien Chan's team doubted whether Lee Teng-hui intended to make Lien Chan his successor. Here, the most critical words are the words "peaceful transfer of power".Let me ask, if Lee Teng-hui really wanted to hand over power to Lien Chan, why would there be any need for a "peaceful transfer" of power?This statement of "peacefully transfer power within one's lifetime" is very intriguing.Lien Chan, who considers himself his successor, heard it, and felt strange in his heart. If this passage can be verified with what Shi Ming-teh, the former chairman of the DPP, said on May 20, 1998, during the tenth anniversary of Lee Teng-hui's administration, we can get the most likely interpretation. Shih Ming-teh said very clearly that Lee Teng-hui's greatest contribution to Taiwan in the past ten years was to destroy the KMT from within, and his biggest mistake was to introduce "black money politics"; and the important task that Lee Teng-hui will accomplish in the future is to "transfer power peacefully to outside the KMT character". Obviously, when Lee Teng-hui said that sentence at the time, he only missed saying that the so-called "another person" refers to "people other than the Kuomintang." In fact, it would be unfair to say that Lee Teng-hui never thought of making Lien Chan his successor from the beginning to the end.Judging from their interactions in previous years, Lien Chan should be one of Lee Teng-hui's considered successors.However, Lien Chan has often had low poll support for a long time, so Lee Teng-hui had to question the difficulty of Lien Chan's succession. At the same time, during Lee Teng-hui's more than ten years in power, Lien Chan did not have a firm grasp of the "independence" tone of "two steps forward, one step back"; Can fit with Lee Teng-hui.Until the 2004 "presidential" election, no one in Taiwan's unification faction seemed to have deliberately questioned whether Lien Chan had "Taiwan independence" or "independence".This is one of the main reasons why Lien Chan was gradually pushed out of the succession circle by Lee Teng-hui. Lien Chan's sense of crisis in this aspect is very strong, and Lien Chan's camp has already been alerted to such a crisis.In particular, in the event of "loaning" 36.28 million yuan to Wu Zeyuan, Lien Chan was devastated and bruised all over his body. Lien Chan's camp knew exactly who Lien Chan called the "bastard" in this incident.And this incident has actually brought Lien Chan's image to the bottom. Especially in the Taipei mayoral election campaign at the end of 1998, Lien Chan, whose image had fallen to the bottom, and whose overall image had not been very good in previous years, did something that Lee Teng-hui couldn't let go of: made his student and love general Ma Ying-jeou came out to run for mayor of Taipei. Everyone in the Kuomintang knows that Lee Teng-hui does not like Ma Ying-jeou.The degree of ideological conflict between the two sides is very serious. Ma Ying-jeou once told professors and colleagues at Chengchi University that Lee Teng-hui would not return to politics when he was in office.At the same time, in the last meeting with Lee Teng-hui before Ma Ying-jeou left politics, Lee Teng-hui accused Ma Ying-jeou of thinking of the Communist Party.These words have been circulating among the professors of National Chengchi University. Therefore, Lien Chan is making perfect preparations for his own future by pushing out Ma Ying-jeou.However, Lee Teng-hui twice refused to meet Ma Ying-jeou, who was in the election campaign, for different reasons. The Lien Chan camp's approach will result in a similar fate to the non-mainstream KMT in the past: it will fall apart or be defeated one by one. Apparently, Lee Teng-hui hoped that the "other person" who "peacefully transfers power" can be clearly said to be "someone other than the Kuomintang" as Shi Mingde said.From the perspective of the "presidential" election in 2000, this figure is Chen Shui-bian. There is no doubt that Chen Shui-bian is a very popular figure in the DPP.This point can be observed from the county and city elections at the end of 1997. At that time, Chen Shui-bian's whirlwind swept all counties and cities in Taiwan, and the DPP won more than half of the county and city seats.This super popularity is one of the reasons why Lee Teng-hui can allow him to "peacefully transfer power".Although Chen Shui-bian was unsuccessful in running for the mayor of Taipei, he won a high vote of nearly 700,000 votes under the pressure of the Nationalist Party and the New Zealand Party, which also made people break into a cold sweat. Secondly, Lee Teng-hui's successors are those who can realize Lee Teng-hui's idea of ​​"Taiwan independence", or even "Taiwan independence".In this regard, former Taiwan governor James Soong has high public support, but he has already been out of the game in Lee Teng-hui's mind; Lee Teng-hui is not satisfied with the performance of Lien Chan's ideas in this regard.Other political figures such as Xiao Wanchang and Wu Boxiong are simply not in Lee Teng-hui's line of succession.In particular, Lee Teng-hui publicly said that the Kuomintang is a foreign regime. In his mind, the DPP, which is not a foreign regime, must be given milk.Lee Teng-hui was deeply impressed by Chen Shui-bian's consistent concept of "Taiwan independence" and his smooth acceptance of "Taiwan independence" words and deeds during his tenure as mayor of Taipei. Furthermore, during Lee Teng-hui's ruling process, he has always had a strong provincial complex.In the army, he deliberately promoted officers from the province; in the "Executive Yuan", from President Xiao Wanchang down, political officials from other provinces gradually became an odd number; in the Kuomintang, party officials from the province were the mainstream.As for the representatives of the public opinion of the Kuomintang, the overall rise of the provincial nationality is already a trend.It is obvious that Lee Teng-hui's provincial complex will only create Chen Shui-bian of the DPP. In particular, during the tenth anniversary of Lee Teng-hui's administration in May 1998, Chen Shui-bian did two things that were puzzling to the outside world but made Lee Teng-hui laugh from ear to ear. Pass the customs and issue a license for use; one is to hold the World Capital Forum in Taipei, inviting 179 mayors and representatives from around the world to attend the meeting. Lee Teng-hui, who was invited to speak at the meeting, and Chen Shui-bian's affectionate gestures can be seen by outsiders In the eyes, there are different interpretations.Chen Shui-bian's style of actively promoting pragmatic "diplomacy" fits perfectly with Lee Teng-hui. Frankly speaking, if Chen Shui-bian wants to win the "President" position, without Lee Teng-hui's secret support, the chances of winning are much smaller.This is the main reason why Chen Shui-bian did not dare to offend Lee Teng-hui for a long time, including in the "presidential" election. Chen Shui-bian even regarded himself as the successor who inherited Lee Teng-hui's political vision. Therefore, politics is the art of possibility. In the 2,000-year "presidential" election, it is by no means a fantasy that Lee Teng-hui secretly contributed to "abandoning Lianlian and protecting the Bian".It's just that Lee Teng-hui's halo, which is facing the rapid decline of power, is still as brilliant as in previous years, which remains to be tested by the votes.