Chapter 3 Lecture 02 Real estate keywords

●I hate scholars who cover up their mistakes the most. Do you think that the problem will be solved if the matter is suppressed? ●I hope that our government can formulate more active and effective policies after watching my program, so that ordinary people can live a better life. ●The bubble in China's property market is caused by the continuous deterioration of China's investment and business environment. 2007 was a year of unrest in the real estate market.For the government, how to regulate is a major issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood.For developers, this year has been exciting, the market situation has been singing all the way, and the performance has doubled.For home buyers, 2007 is a sensible year, and more and more home buyers are no longer eager to pay for the thrilling housing prices. In 2007, too many things happened in the real estate market, so, are there any key words that can summarize the salient features of the year?

Dear guests, audience in front of the TV, hello, everyone.I am very glad to be able to talk to you today about the trend of housing prices in 2007.Before I did this program, the producer told me: "Professor Lang, you must not talk about too sensitive topics." However, please pay attention to one thing, our criticism of real estate today is not for the sake of criticism, but for the sake of criticism. I am criticizing for the common people to live a better life. I hate scholars who cover up their mistakes the most. Do you think that the problem will be solved if the matter is suppressed?impossible!If you procrastinate to the end, the people who really pay the bill are the general public. This is the most important purpose of my speaking in China in the past few years.The purpose of my speech is to hope that the people will live a better life, so I brought up some wrong phenomena.If you solve the problem, it will be fine, why are we so afraid of the problem?Why can't we talk about sensitive topics?It's so important to each of us, and that's why I'm doing this show.

I hope that our government can formulate more active and effective policies after seeing our program, so that ordinary people can live a better life.For the college students here, you are so young, everyone has a pure face, but can you still afford a house after graduation?I believe all students are shaking their heads.Therefore, the urgency and importance of macro-control are self-evident and very clear. Let me show you some information. In January 2007, the average house price in Shenzhen was 10,000 yuan per square meter, but in October it became 17,000 yuan per square meter.In less than a year, it has increased by 70%.What kind of vitality is there in Shenzhen?It is unimaginable for the economy to jump by 70%, and our economic growth rate in China is less than 10%. Why is there such a big difference between the increase in housing prices and the increase in the economy?This phenomenon is unreasonable.

What I just said was the average real estate price, and I will tell you the actual real estate price.For example, how much does Overseas Chinese Town in eastern Shenzhen sell for per square meter? 200,000!For those of us college students, how many years of money can you earn to buy a 1 square meter house?Do you think this kind of real estate and this strange phenomenon deserve our attention?A while ago, my assistant called the golf course to inquire about the price. They offered a lot of beautiful villas, which rose to 90 million in 2007, and many people bought them with cash.Guys, who is buying these houses?Another strange phenomenon has also appeared. Many real estate properties in Shenzhen have houses but no market. Why?A large amount of capital has entered Shenzhen. Is the decoration industry doing well?Is the furniture business doing well?Businesses related to construction, including furniture and decoration, are not doing well.

These phenomena cannot be explained by a simple "excess liquidity".Why does excess liquidity cause this phenomenon?If we ordinary people really have a lot of money, it should be that real estate prices are rising. There should be no real estate but no market. It should be that all industries in the society will take off at the same time, or become hotter at the same time.And this time the house price rise is very strange.my country's macro-control policies have always been aimed at curbing excess liquidity, so bank interest rates have been continuously raised.May I ask government officials, students, and the audience in front of the TV, if the goal of macro-control is wrong, what should we do?

Dear students, there are voices from all over the country: excess liquidity.Have you ever wondered if the term "excess liquidity" is correct?No textbook can explain China's current problems clearly, and the phenomenon in China is a special phenomenon.To solve the property market bubble today, we must first solve the problem of deteriorating investment and business environment.Instead of doing this, we constantly rely on financial instruments.Students, this is all wrong.Don't worry about whether I am right or wrong today, this is not the purpose of my lecture today.I hope that our experts, scholars and audiences have a reverse thinking, and don't think everyone thinks the same.Our country needs more opinions, we help the government, help the people move towards a brighter future, not all think in the same way.

What if the rise in housing prices in Shenzhen is not due to excess liquidity?Have you ever wondered what the result of this is?The result is that the central government's idea of ​​macro-control has not been thoroughly implemented. In the end, due to problems with the means of regulation, the macro-control of the past four years has basically failed.That's my judgment.So I have a new idea, what caused the property market bubble in 2007?My point of view is different from that of almost everyone in the country.But you know, I must be right. In my opinion, the bubble in the property market is due to the fact that the investment and business environment in China has continued to deteriorate over the past two years, so many entrepreneurs pooled money that should have been invested in other industries or had not yet been invested into the property market as "virtual funds".The amount of this money is very large, and its destination is basically to buy high-priced real estate.This money is the real main cause of the housing bubble, and we call it the first fund.So what is the second fund?It is the corruption money of some cadres.

A while ago, Premier Wen Jiabao rectified the underground finance in Shenzhen, one of the purposes of which was to investigate and regulate such funds.But this kind of capital has not only appeared in Shenzhen.We found that this embezzled money entered the stock market in large quantities across the country.The third fund is the international hot money that you are familiar with.The fourth fund is the money of ordinary people, including myself.In fact, I'm not doing very well, and I can't afford to buy a house. I can't afford it, and I can't afford it. Where is the problem of macro-control?All our macro-control measures are aimed at international hot money and ordinary people's money, and none of our macro-control measures is aimed at the first fund and the second fund.Let's talk about Beijing. Foreigners are not allowed to buy houses in Beijing, and there are many restrictions on you, which is to restrict the third item of funds.Recently, relevant government units have introduced various erroneous policies, including that if you want to sell your house, you have to repay the loan first, and then buy a second house, or the interest rate on the loan for buying a second house has to be increased.These measures are aimed at the fourth fund, that of ordinary people.But Professor Lang is very clear, not to say that the third and fourth funds are not important at all, but that they are not as important as the first and second funds.

Over the past four years, the targets of macro-control have been funds that do not play a decisive role in rising housing prices.Therefore, the property market bubble still exists.We have never carried out any macro-control for the first fund and the second fund.Of course, the so-called first and second funds are not mentioned in textbooks.Our textbooks talk about the third and fourth funds. What is the reason?Excess liquidity.Because the third and fourth funds are basically caused by excess liquidity.Ordinary people spend a lot of money, and there is excess liquidity. These are the finalized statements in Western economics.Today, I tell you, don't read dead books.The problem of housing prices in China today is not what was predicted by Western economics.The first and second funds I mentioned earlier have never been discussed in textbooks across the country. They are the results of my own research.Think about it again, if I am right, entrepreneurs use funds that should have been invested in other fields to invest in the property market, then what is the result of macro-control?The macro-control aimed at liquidity will further hit the deteriorating investment and business environment, because the lending rate of banks will definitely be above 6%.Dear students, it is getting more and more difficult to make money now, how difficult it is to earn more than 5% profit!

At the end of the year, our banks tightened their monetary policy a lot.Interest rates are rising and money is tightening. How do you tell us entrepreneurs to live?This macro-control has further hit the investment and business environment.The audience at the scene think about it, what would you do if you were an entrepreneur?You take out the money from business to form virtual funds to speculate in stocks and real estate.This is the reason why the macro-control in the morning and the stock price soared in the afternoon.The reason is that the macro-control has deteriorated the investment environment and destroyed my country's investment environment.

If what I said is correct, you can understand why the macro-control policies implemented by financial institutions in the past four years cannot implement the spirit of the central government's macro-control.As simple as that, because its means are wrong. According to what I said earlier, there are four sources of funds for house purchases: the first is business turnover funds brought about by the deterioration of the investment and business environment, the second is corruption funds, the third is international hot money, and the fourth is People's savings.All of our macro-control measures are basically aimed at the third and fourth funds. As long as the price of high-priced real estate goes up, the mid-to-low-end real estate will also rise, but why is there a phenomenon that there are houses but no market?That is, housing prices exceed the purchasing power of local people. Due to the lack of public acceptance, there are often houses without a market.As for the government's "adjustment", it cannot restrain the first and second items of funds for stock and real estate speculation, but it can affect the ability to undertake.Cracking down on the ability to undertake will have an inhibitory effect on the transactions of low- and medium-priced real estate.If you really can't find a buyer, you always have to sell in the end.The suppression of buyers will slowly lower the real estate prices in our country. This is a game process between the two sides. The ability to undertake will be the most important factor in the trend of the property market in 2008. Many people's current mentality is basically asking for directions.What are people testing?Test the ability of our society to undertake most real estate projects.What am I most worried about?I am most worried that the government did not realize at this moment that the main cause of this wave of rising property prices is not the money of ordinary people, but the first and second funds, and finally neglected the governance of the first and second funds.If these things are not dealt with properly, I think property prices will rise again after falling.If at that time, you use the current macro-control policy to crack down on these undertakers, the housing price will reach a new height. If virtual funds become active again in 2008, housing prices will reach a new high as the investment and business environment continues to deteriorate.In my opinion, in addition to implementing the current macro-control policies and suppressing the capacity to undertake, the government needs to intensify efforts in the direction of the entire virtual capital and the governance of virtual capital, including the governance of the investment and business environment, so as to prevent property prices from rising in waves. As a result of the rising tide, the general public who really need to buy low- and medium-priced houses cannot afford houses.Coupled with the government's macro-control, a lot of problems have emerged: the first house and the second house are all problems.You can't afford it anymore, there is a house but no market.A lot of real estate speculation funds are fictitious funds. The purpose of buying a property is not to live in it, nor does it need furniture or decoration.The phenomenon in Shenzhen is the property market bubble caused by virtual funds. The increase in high-priced houses is extremely unreasonable, and there are houses but no markets.The furniture industry and the decoration industry are not as prosperous as imagined.Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai and other places, because of the same reason, housing prices soared, and all parts of the country were infected.Beijing has risen to 30,000 yuan, Shanghai 40,000 yuan, and other places will also rise.We have many real estate companies, such as Vanke, what impact do they have on the rise in housing prices?I went to Fuzhou some time ago. A landmark land in Fuzhou is 7,000 square meters. You still need to build, and you still need to make profits... How much is the local housing price in Fuzhou?It costs five to six thousand yuan per square meter, so it’s okay if companies like Vanke don’t come, but it’s becoming more and more annoying. When you come, the house price will go up instead.Why?open auction.The public bidding of our land is very dangerous. If everyone bids together, it actually brings many dangerous factors.I also told our government through our program, what problems will arise from this kind of public bidding. First, how is our GDP calculated?If there is a transaction, it can enter the GDP.If we talk about an extreme example, the government can just sell the land, and the GDP will increase by one piece of land sold, and the higher the land price, the higher the GDP.Government officials don't do anything, sell land every day, preferably to Vanke.In the end, nothing was done, but GDP went up.You can see that selling land itself can create GDP, which is worth discussing.Let's recalculate this data. After you exclude this income, can my country still have 10% economic growth every year? Second, after you sell the land, what are you going to do with the money you get?Of course, I have to say frankly that the central government has formulated a lot of regulations in this area, which I very much support, including not being allowed to go abroad for inspections, not being able to build office buildings for myself, and the central government is also supervising expenditures in this area.But, other than that, what are you going to do with the money?Whose land is this?It's not the government's, but the people's. The government is just an agent.You sold the land and made a lot of money. What do many governments use 10% to 20% for?Use it to build low-rent housing and affordable housing. What is the rest of the money for?Building bridges and paving roads is the so-called breaking the intestines.Shenzhen is an emerging city with construction everywhere.When we arrived in Shenyang, Qingdao, and Hangzhou, it was almost the same, and we developed and constructed everywhere.But the construction problem came out.If you build everywhere like this, it seems that the city has become more advanced, but the housing prices have gone up, and ordinary people can no longer afford houses.This is the result of selling land at high prices.The same is true for Shanghai. According to recent news, the price of auctioned land in Shanghai is 17,000 yuan per square meter of construction area. How do you say this is regulated? So, selling land itself is a problem.I call on the central government to re-examine the land sales of local governments.First, should this part of the income be included in GDP?Second, how will the funds be used?I don't want this fund to be used to build bridges and pave roads. Instead, I hope that a large amount of this fund will be used to build affordable housing and low-rent housing.The governing policy of local governments should not be based on increasing GDP, but should be aimed at "promoting social fairness and justice" as pointed out by the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.On the basis of "promoting social fairness and justice," every ordinary person has the right to go to school, see a doctor, and retire.Before the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the rights that ordinary people should have had been neglected for too long.Therefore, in line with the report of the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we believe that the governance standards of local governments should change from the idea of ​​using GDP as the key link in the past to "promote social fairness and justice" advocated by the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. This change is very important. I would like to talk to you about the phenomenon caused by this idea of ​​focusing on GDP.A large amount of social resources have been transferred to construction-related sectors, such as steel, cement, real estate, large state-owned enterprises... A large amount of funds have been transferred, thus forming a unique dual economic system in the world.You have recently read media reports, saying that our economy is overheated. I would like to ask the audience in front of the TV, are private enterprises overheated?Dear students, you must look at the data with a scientific attitude.Our data is wrong. The Chinese economy is neither overheated nor overcooled. What is it?It is the existence of overheating and overcooling at the same time, which is called a dual economic system.What sector is overheating?The construction-related sectors promoted by local governments are overheated.What sector is too cold?Most of the private economy is too cold.This dual economy was researched by Professor Lang myself, and it is not in textbooks.So it is very good for you to listen to my lectures, because it has nothing to do with textbooks, which are useless in China.Under this dual economy, many problems have arisen. Further failure of macro-control, inflation will certainly arise.First, let me talk about why macro-control has failed.Think about it, why are these departments overheated?The reason for overheating is that it drives GDP, so it's not an economic act, it's a political act.Raising interest rates is an economic act.It is impossible to control political behavior with economic means.Think about it, everyone, the purpose of construction is to increase GDP. After our central bank raises the interest rate to 2.5%, do you think that construction-related enterprises will not borrow money?Impossible, still borrow.So what about the results of macro-control?The overheated sector continues to heat up, and its construction won't stop.Where do you see that once the interest rate is raised, the construction will not be carried out?But what about the supercool Division 21?That's troublesome.Because most of the funds in the overcooled sector come from underground finance, referred to as the black market.Underground finance and the black market are very sensitive to interest rates.As far as I know, the black market interest rate is 1% higher than the central interest rate, so macro-control has further hit the already depressed supercooled sector.So, after the blow?A company that is too cold is even less willing to do business. According to my theory of virtual funds, he will transfer funds from departments that are too cold to departments that are too hot.So, the subcooled part is cooler and the superheated part is hotter.Economic data shows that China's economy is overheated. What is the reason?The reason is that the information you collect is basically collected from overheated sectors, including the stock market and property market are all overheated sectors. So the data itself is misleading.How many overheated departments are there? 20%~30%. 70%~80% are supercooled.So, students, do you remember that there is a "February 8 phenomenon" in the stock market.The "February 8th Phenomenon" in the stock market reflects the "February 8th Phenomenon" in our economic entity.You now know why you lost money, right?So it's good to listen to Lang's lectures. As I just said, the reason for the rise in real estate prices is not because of excess liquidity, but because of the sharp deterioration of the investment and business environment.Now, a pressing question is, we have raised bank interest rates several times throughout 2007, what does this mean?This means that, in the absence of a solution to the economic bubble, the financial risks of our country's entire economic system have risen sharply.This is what worries me more. So, can rising financial risks have a restraining effect on housing prices?This will discuss the basic economic laws of housing prices.Housing prices are different from stock prices. It is not easy for real estate to fall, and a sharp drop in real estate prices is not conducive to stability. So have real estate prices plummeted?Of course, this phenomenon has not happened in China, but it happened once in Hong Kong. Before 1997, housing prices in Hong Kong rose greatly. It is very dangerous for housing prices to only rise but not fall, because a drop can release negative factors.What if it only goes up but not down?Negative factors are highly accumulated and will collapse at a peak.For example, when the real estate bubble collapsed in Hong Kong in 1997, how much did it fall?It fell by 40%.Where is the problem?The problem is that when you borrowed money, you had a 70% mortgage, and you borrowed 70 yuan for a 100-yuan house, but it fell by 40 yuan, so you repaid the loan and lost 10 yuan.what should you doIt should not be repaid, just leave, so we were worried about the financial crisis in Hong Kong at that time.If everyone doesn't pay back, the bank will be in trouble.But why didn't Hong Kong's banks collapse at that time?Why is there no financial crisis?Because the people in Hong Kong have a very fiduciary responsibility.This is what I have been advocating in speeches all over the country, that is, to fulfill your responsibility as a borrower, and to repay what you should.Basically, ordinary people in Hong Kong carried their loans until 2004, seven years later.Thanks to the Chinese government's free travel policy, Hong Kong's housing prices have returned to normal, and they are relieved. If the same thing happened in Mainland China, and housing prices fell by 40%, 50%, 60%, what would be the result?Audience and guests at the scene, will you carry it?I don't know, it hasn't happened, and if we don't carry it, it will be a financial crisis.Now the question arises?That is, the trend of the entire housing price in 2007 is still only rising but not falling.By November 2007, housing prices in Shenzhen began to fall.According to reports this morning, the average transaction price in Shanghai fell by 7% this month, and Shenzhen may be even more.This phenomenon is conducive to the stability of housing prices, and housing prices cannot fall sharply. A sharp drop in housing prices is very dangerous, and it will cause the financial crisis in Hong Kong in 1997.Therefore, we must not only recognize the main cause of the real estate bubble, but also solve the problem of housing prices from two aspects: temporary and fundamental.The principle is that house prices must fall slowly. Do you know why?The reason is that our policy on the third and fourth funds has produced some effects, that is to say, the takers of our mid- and low-priced real estate projects are weak in follow-up, and we ordinary people lack the ability to take over the projects.Therefore, over time, some real estate projects will definitely fall, especially low- and medium-priced real estate projects.High-priced real estate may not move, but overall housing prices will fall. I think that to really solve the problem of the real estate bubble, we cannot simply rely on macro-control, but must jump out of the economic circle.How do you use the money after our bidding?It is not a simple fiscal surplus.This money should be used wisely, to implement the spirit of the current central government - to build low-rent housing and affordable housing in various places.We don't want me to talk here alone on today's program. Dear guests, if you have any questions, we can interact with you.This student speaks. Audience: Hello, Professor Lang, I agree with your theory very much.Regarding the virtual funds for real estate speculation, you only mentioned the problem, but did not talk about what measures the central government should take.In addition, you also said that housing prices in Shenzhen have begun to fall. Do you think this is an inflection point? Lang Xianping: Okay, thank you very much for your question, you asked it very well.If the house price bubble is caused by the first or second virtual funds, what advice should I give to the government?The investment and business environment is the main cause of all events. If you have the opportunity to ask entrepreneurs, the real investment desire of entrepreneurs is very low.So where did 80% of the money go?That is the stock market and property market.How do you handle this funding?This kind of capital is unprecedented. What are its characteristics?He is unsupervised, uncontrollable, unpredictable, coming and going without a trace. For example, when I went to Chengdu to give a speech in March 2007, the local leaders told me that the local housing price was 6,000 yuan per square meter.In May, I went to Chongqing to give a speech. At that time, the house price in Jiangbei District of Chongqing was 2,900 yuan per square meter.At that time, there was no housing price bubble in Chongqing, but the last sentence of my speech was as follows: "As soon as virtual funds come in, housing prices will immediately get out of control. Therefore, the government must strictly control foreign virtual funds." I left for a month, and the government is doing some kind of urban-rural pooling of funds. Now the housing prices in Jiangbei District are similar to those in Chengdu, five to six thousand yuan per square meter.What causes it?caused by virtual funds.This is not as simple as a Wenzhou real estate speculation group.Virtual funds are accumulated by entrepreneurs all over the country. Wherever the money goes, there will be bubbles.After the bubble, housing prices can no longer fall down.How to solve this problem? It is very difficult to solve this problem, because you have to prepare for the investment and business environment.In other words, I think local governments should return to their own functions.What is the government doing?It is more important than anything else to provide a clean, fair and just environment for ordinary people and entrepreneurs.Therefore, instead of adjusting housing prices through the current macro-control, it is better to go back and cure the root cause slowly.How to cure the root cause?Our government should use various policies to improve the investment and business environment. Today is a TV program, we only raise the problem, the solution, just talk about it in general, not to talk to the government.He is not in a hurry, why am I in a hurry.We can make this key point clear and let the government understand that the deterioration of the investment and business environment is the main cause of the property market bubble.However, if we talk too much at the moment, the audience in front of the TV will go to sleep.For some more targeted and stimulating topics, everyone sounds interested.Improving the investment and business environment is an important way to control bubbles, and that's all I'll say.As for how to do it, with so many officials in the government, it should be up to them to plan. Housing prices in Shanghai fell by 7%, and Shenzhen also fell. Is it an inflection point?House prices have reached the current level, and it is unlikely that they will rise sharply.Taking Beijing as an example, many real estate developers in the third and fourth rings now see that the situation is unstable. How can they sell their houses?He launched a few households to see how the market is going. Do you know why?Real estate developers are also uncertain about the future, so it is not clear what the trend of 2008 will be for the government and real estate developers.However, a crazy surge like last year should not be possible, and this so-called virtual fund has attracted the attention of the government after several speeches by me.As long as the speculation of virtual funds is suppressed, there will be no problem, and now we must strictly control this aspect.How the policy is introduced is a matter for the government. Audience: Hello, Professor Lang, just now you have been talking about the deterioration of the investment and business environment.I can only say that I partly agree with your point of view, and I want to share a piece of information with you.You said that increasing interest rates has led to a decline in corporate profits, but how do you explain that since 2000 in our country, the real interest rate has been at a negative level? This is a problem.Another is the national income tax. The corporate income tax will be reduced from 33% to 25% by 2008.This should be an improvement in the operating environment.Also, not long ago, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress passed the "Anti-Monopoly Law", which should be said to be good news for private enterprises.The savings rate of our domestic enterprises accounts for 40% of the national savings. I just read the information yesterday, and this ratio is still rising.The savings of these enterprises undoubtedly come from profits, so from this aspect, it should be said that the business environment of enterprises is improving.I think the deterioration you mentioned mainly comes from international aspects. For example, the US subprime debt crisis may lead to a decline in demand. Recently, subtle changes have taken place in the relationship between China and Germany.The trade relationship between China and the EU may deteriorate to some extent.But I think generally speaking, the investment and business environment of Chinese enterprises should be improving. The second question, you just talked about land bidding, saying that the government can sell the land, anyway, GDP is rising.But have you noticed that the government's evaluation of government officials has been completely separated from the total GDP, and the evaluation criteria also have other indicators, such as green GDP.There is also land bidding, and there is no better way to solve it now.Implement the specified price given to him by the government, or through a fair market transaction?How to set the price of land sale, can you propose a method? Lang Xianping: Yes, very good.For enterprises, regardless of real interest rates, enterprises look at nominal interest rates.Enterprise operating profit is not actual profit. We look at nominal interest rates, which means that the interest rates we see are about 6%, 7%, and 8%. For us personally, ordinary people look at real interest rates.Let's take the manufacturing industry as an example today. How many companies can earn 5% of the net profit?When you think about it, interest rate adjustments pose a huge financial risk to them.Another one, talk about the rising exchange rate.The exchange rate has risen by more than 5% this year. Can you imagine how much pressure our economic system dominated by export manufacturing will bear?Do you think our local investment environment is good?I can give you an example. When our company invests, will local bureaucracy and possible local corruption bring many difficulties to entrepreneurs?For example, if you open a restaurant, can you solve urban management, sanitation, etc. without spending money?These are all factors that deteriorate the investment environment. In addition, there is another question, that is, has my country's internationalization in recent years gone right?We chanted the slogan of internationalization. Do you understand what internationalization is?Recently, a large amount of foreign capital has entered China. Do you think this is internationalization?Taking Suzhou as an example, Suzhou is one of the most successful regions in attracting foreign capital. In 2005, the per capita gross output value of Suzhou was 40,000 RMB, and the per capita disposable income was 10,000 RMB.Where did the difference go?The introduction of foreign capital can not get benefits.The entry of foreign capital into China and the massive acquisitions of Chinese companies by foreign capital are all visible facts. We face the invasion of foreign capital in all walks of life, and as a result, we cannot hold on to the domestic market, nor can we export it. This is the case.Due to the lack of legal rules, internationalization itself also brings us the problem of speculation.Macro-control has worsened the investment and business environment, and our local governments have not implemented various policies in place, and have not provided a fair and equitable environment for our entrepreneurs.Are our sanitation and urban management helping entrepreneurs?Putting all these factors together, you will find that the investment and business environment continued to deteriorate in 2007. As for the "Anti-Monopoly Law" you mentioned, and the "Property Rights Law" we passed, this direction is correct.Our country needs anti-monopoly law and the "Property Law". Let me take the "Property Law" as an example. Can the "Property Law" protect our common people and vulnerable groups?Let me ask you, is our entire judicial unit fair, just, and clean?The basis and soul of law is whether the judicial environment of the whole society is sound, and of course our country is currently heading in this direction.We all know that China is a country that does not lack laws and regulations. You are all business students, and you have all studied the "Company Law", right? We copied the "Company Law" from the United States and from Europe, but it is useless to add them together.Why?The law lacks an enforcement environment. You lack a strong, clean, fair, and just enforcement environment. This is a problem in China. The "Anti-Monopoly Law" itself has a good intention, and the "Property Law" has a good intention, but your implementation is not in place.Do you guys know what this will produce?This will cause extra burdens for many entrepreneurs, and the transaction costs will rise sharply. Therefore, the introduction of many laws has increased the operating costs of enterprises. The reason is that the enforcement units are unclean, unfair, and unfair. This is the problem.Therefore, when various factors are added together, you will find that in the end, it is the problem of implementation that prevents the law from achieving the expected effect.The problem of implementation is the weakness of our units at all levels in China, including academic circles, business circles, and political circles.This problem of execution has plagued us in China for thousands of years. As for the assessment of green GDP, it was only after the 17th CPC National Congress that local governments began to pay attention.The evaluation criteria for local cadres has changed from "taking GDP as the key link" to "promoting social fairness and justice", which is to see whether officials can provide a good environment for ordinary people, including: a good living environment, a good natural environment, and a good social environment .All of these should be included in the evaluation criteria, and we support the central government's policy on this point. Lang Xianping: 2007 is a very special year. I think the real estate industry in 2007 can be expressed in one word, that is, "increase" in price increase.Real estate prices can double within a few months, so just to make a joke, many of our entrepreneurs are engaged in manufacturing, and the profit earned by investing 1 billion yuan a year is not as much as buying a villa in Shenzhen.What do you think everyone is motivated to do in manufacturing?The house price has risen so much, I would like to ask all the guests here, how many people in your family bought a house in 2007?Please raise your hand.There are only two people, can these two guests tell us when and where you bought the house? Audience A: I bought it in Zhuzhou, Hunan in September 2007. At that time, the house price was only over 1,000, and then I saw that it was rising all over the country.I just bought it.Lang Xianping: Has the result increased?Audience A: It has increased. Lang Xianping: How much has it increased? Audience A: The price has increased by 2,500 yuan per square meter. Audience B: I am from Chengdu. The house I bought this year has increased by more than 1,000. Lang Xianping: You are quite clear about the word "rising" in 2007. Audience B: The income is quite high. Lang Xianping: All the guests at the scene said they were the beneficiaries.What about the young friends at the scene?You are so young, what do you do when you buy a house?Now that housing prices have risen like this, what are your next steps?The whole concept of buying a house needs to be changed. If the mix is ​​not good, go to the second-tier or third-tier cities to buy. Do you think this is the long-term solution?What do you hope will happen to house prices in the future?Does anyone hope house prices will drop?Raise your hand how many live guests want house prices to drop.You see, those who raise their hands are all young people. Do your parents want this?Do house-owning parents want this?So to tell you this, it is undeniable that housing prices rose so fast in 2007 and created many new small rich people.However, it will be very difficult for us young people to buy a house in the future. Let's talk about the second topic.I think the phenomenon of real estate in 2007 deserves attention. The second is "upgrade".What is "upgrade"?Let me give you an example. 利率调升、汇率调升、存款准备金率调升，也就是说目前我们政府对于“涨”这个字的应对方式就是“调”。调利率、调银行准备金率是最主要的手段。我想问问各位同学和现场来宾，这种“调”对你们而言，意味着什么？ 观众：你好！你刚才说到虚拟资金进入楼市，我非常同意这个观点。我认为房地产它是有两个属性。一个是商品的属性，一个是资产的属性。咱们现在政府出台了这个政策，就是购买第二套房的时候要相应地增加难度，所以说，我认为这个难度应该继续地增加。也就是说，如果你购房是为了投资赚钱，不是为了自己居住，这个贷款难度应该继续加大，这是我的想法。 郎咸平：你们现场来宾有没有想过，你们下一步怎么办。如果继续这样调下去的话，按照央行周小川的说法，继续调是一个必然。在这种调整之下，对于你个人的资产选择，或者你家人的资产选择，或者资产组合，你们有什么新的想法没有？ 观众：我准备把我现在那套住房给卖了，然后再换一个更大一点的。 郎咸平：你现在住房在哪里呢？介绍一下？ 观众：我的房在朝阳区。 郎咸平：在几环？ 观众：四环外头，我把我的房子卖掉，找机会再换一个大的。 郎咸平：你现在有按揭吗？有贷款吗？ 观众：有贷款，都是对方负担你这部分贷款，中介可以走这个手续。 郎咸平：这个房子你要把它卖掉，先得还贷对不对？ 观众：对。 郎咸平：这种还贷本身有没有给你造成很大的压力，比如你借100万，你要把100万还掉才能买房子。你肯定有这个钱。 观众：我没有贷那么多，一开始房子比较便宜，我是2006年买的，所以它已经升值了，而且升得很多，等于我是在赚钱。我银行的贷款也不是特别多，对方一般都可以承受。我听中介说，现在有钱人特别多，他们会全款买你的房子。未来，人民币肯定对内是贬值，对外是升值的，我找不到更好的投资的管道，所以我用房子保值。我觉得人民币肯定是越来越不值钱，东西会越来越来贵，这是无法改变的。中国也被迫这么一步步走向这个趋势，现在各种矛盾汇合在一起，所以大家讨论得这么激烈。 郎咸平：假如你第一套房贷50万，你钱不够，中介说他可以借给你钱还掉货款，你相信中介吗？你买房子或者卖房子的很多钱愿意打到中介的帐户去吗？你怕不怕中天现象重演？ 观众：我愿意，毕竟现在中介这么多，不可能所有的中介都有问题。它存在就是合理的嘛。国家不是真正抵制纯炒房的人，国家要想真正制止这种现象，就应该不准买第二套房、第三套房。 郎咸平：你说这个观点特别好，“调”对于真正的投机人来讲是不起作用的，他付全款没有一点问题。你讲得很对，目前“调”这个字它所针对的对象，就是资金实力不够的一般炒房户。对于真正有实力的人是不起作用的。 郎咸平：好，那有没有其他的来宾有不同的看法，在这种“调”的情况下，你准备怎么办，有没有一个什么创新的方法可以沟通沟通的。 观众：我打算租房子。 郎咸平：（笑）你老婆不一定干，如果租房子，我担心你老婆都娶不到。Are you worried? 观众：我觉得现在人比较开放的。 郎咸平：你多大年纪？ 观众：我现在上大二。 郎咸平：你还没有这种危机。你有没有觉得现在女同志比较务实？ 观众：我觉得可以跟他讲讲道理吧。 郎咸平：跟女同志讲道理…… 观众：我觉得可以等几年再买房子。 郎咸平：所以你对我党的政策还是有信心的。准备租房子也很好，哪一天我们这个政策落实了再买。你不担心结婚的问题，我很担心你啊。 观众：谢谢你的关心。 郎咸平：女同志有没有？女来宾有没有什么看法？这位请讲。在“调”字之下，你准备怎么应对？ 观众：我听到很多其他学者这样议论：房价的走势可能不会继续大涨，但是也不会大降。我觉得我可能像刚才那位同学说的那样，我先租房。 郎咸平：这位女同志可以这么做，他不行。 观众：我最初的想法是以小换大，以房养房，以此构建我未来的现金流。毕业后先从租房开始，再买一个小房，然后用这个小房跟我的另一半换一个大房，构建这个现金流。 郎咸平：你对另一半有什么要求？ 观众：跟我一样就行。把父母的钱拿来买房，这不是我的想法。我想两个人一起买。 郎咸平：想不想找一个有钱的男朋友？ 观众：这个跟有没有钱没什么关系。 郎咸平：你现在念大学是吗？ 观众：研究生。 郎咸平：你还是比较清纯。 观众：我觉得读完研究生，对自己以后的收入还是有信心的。 郎咸平：挺好。和你们对话，我心里挺感动的。你们有原则，有理念，有这么纯洁的想法。我把你们讲的话做个总结，你们的理论基础，基本上都是基于一个假设前提，什么前提呢？房价未来一定会平稳，或者是小幅下降。你们租房子也好，换房子也好，在这个考虑之下，才有意义。比如你刚刚讲换房，如果房价一直上涨，你把房子卖了，到时候买的还是一样的房子。 2007年第三个现象非常值得我们关切：2007年下半年，尤其是8、9、10月份以后，我们在媒体上经常看到的字眼就是廉租房、经济适用房。经济适用房和廉租房差别在哪里？一个可以买，一个可以租，这两个事物我认为是来自于中国香港和新加坡的政府。各位千万不要认为市场化可以解决住房问题，那是不可能的。全世界没有哪个国家是全部依赖市场化，我们对于所谓的这个市场化，要有一个新的认识。 市场化一定要建立在政府的某种管制之上，这样的市场化才有价值。我想举个例子，香港的楼盘特别贵，像在尖沙嘴，靠海的楼盘是一平方尺就是1万～2万港元；如果换算成平方米，一平方米就是10万～20万港元，跟深圳华侨城差不多水平。香港的房非常贵，可是为什么香港的老百姓就没有抗议的？香港老百姓为什么就没有骂街的？因为香港有非常健全的廉租房和经济适用房制度。也就是说，对于整个社会的低收入者以及弱势群体，香港政府通过廉租房和经济适用房政策进行了补贴，满足了社会低收入阶层的需求。在这个基础之上，才能搞市场化。 你是有钱人，你可以买最贵的楼盘。同时，香港的每一个老百姓，基本上都有住房的保障。你一旦住上了廉租房或经济适用房，对于出售或转租都有非常严格的法律规定。廉租房以及经济适用房是一个非常公平的制度，这是香港法制化建设的可贵之处。我可以这么讲，香港是有腐败的，香港也有一些不公平的地方，这是肯定的。但是整体而言，香港的司法制度是干净、公平、公正的。我举个例子，在香港你要想请法官出来吃顿饭，可能性是零，根本不可能。 还有，如果你和香港的一些执行官员谈判补地价的问题，我0年之前买的地，我现在建楼盘，我补地价，这整个谈判过程就是公开、公正、公平的，很少牵涉到腐败。由于廉租房跟经济适用房的选择公平、公正、干净，所以不会产生社会的不安，也不会产生民众的抱怨。在内地，各地政府把廉租房以及经济适用房议题已经列入日程。在这个节目里面，综合中国香港以及新加坡的经验，我们不能只是简单引进廉租房和经济适用房这两种制度。在中国香港和新加坡，这个制度能够贯彻，能够得到老百姓的支持，能够给每一个需要住房的老百姓带来实惠。其原因不只是有廉租房以及经济适用房制度，更重要的是，整个分配过程是干净、透明、公平、公正的。这个很重要，如果你做不到这一步，就不是一个公平的分配过程。不公平的分配就是滥用国家资源，制造社会的不安。所以我今天呼吁各地政府，要注意你的分配过程是否干净、公平、公正，这一点也应该是考核干部的重要指标。 这是一个新思维，我不想看到这样的现象：一方面各地推出廉租房和经济适用房，另一方面他的分配产生巨大的漏洞。这是2007年第三个关键词。 第四个现象也是电视机前的观众以及现场来宾所关切的，那就是上市的问题。在2007年，很多人因为地产而突然暴富，成为中国的富豪。那么，大家可能会有这样的疑问：2007年企业上市还有意义吗？企业上市有一个原则，通常在股市环境好的时候呢，大量上市；股市环境不好，延缓上市。香港的股市是这样，上海的股市也是这样。可以在前年上市，为什么要拖到今年才上市？因为今年股价高，企业上市之后，能够募集更多的钱。对于今年所谓的地产股上市风潮，我希望大家不要把它误解为地产行业的独特现象。不是的，所有企业（包括国有企业、民营企业）的上市在2007年都是非常疯狂的。疯狂到什么地步呢？很多国内的资金就专门搞上市基金——把老百姓的钱汇集在一起，专门去买新股，买了新股就一定能涨，就一定能赚钱。例如这次闹得沸沸扬扬的中石油，你打新股赚十几倍，不打新股赔钱。为什么有这种现象？并不是中石油有钱，而是市场看好它的时候，我们投资人的冲动是无法解释的。世界上有名的经济学家凯恩斯说股票市场的行为是“兽性的冲动”。这个“兽性的冲动”是凯恩斯第一个提出来的，我觉得他这句话解释2007年上市风潮是适合的。只要推出新股，它就会被市场赋予极高的市值，而这个市值往往都是高估的。 这个高估的股票上市之后，一定会跌回来。这种现象如果成为常态的话，有可能一开盘就跌，连赚钱的机会都没有。这一点我提醒电视机前的观众。 所以到了2007年年底，通过地产股上市的问题，我想为各位提出建议：第一，“兽性的冲动”会把大量的股民套牢。以中石油为例，很有可能迈入香港股市的后尘，也就是说，定价过高的股票有可能一开盘就跌。 第一个叫上涨，第二个叫上调，第三个叫上手段，第四个叫上市。就是这“四上”。对于这四个关键词，我想最后做一个摘要。 第一，“上涨”指的是什么？2008年之后，由于宏观调控的政策，房价会稍微下滑。我最担心由于虚拟资金再次进入，把这个房价抬高了，然后下跌，再抬高，再下跌……我最担心2008年楼市形成波浪型的上涨，因此我们要避免。怎么避免呢？就是改善投资经商环境，防止虚拟资金冲击楼市。 第二，我们小结一下“上调”。按照目前中国人民银行的思路，我认为这种调高利率，调高银行准备金率，收缩信用的政策应该是不会变的。这种政策会使得房价稳定下滑，但是解决不了房价反复波动的问题，无法避免房价产生波浪型的上涨。 第三是“上手段”。2007年年底，各地政府纷纷推出了廉租房和经济适用房。通过这个节目，我想给各地政府提一个中肯的建议：廉租房和经济适用房是中国香港和新加坡成功的经验，但那是一个表面现象。真正重大的问题是分配的过程是否干净、公平、公正，这才是各地政府首先应该关切的目标。 第四是“上市”。我们的媒体对于地产公司上市的报导过分渲染。由于股市情况不错，除了地产公司之外，其他的企业也是纷纷上市。这种上市是一个大面积的上市，不光是地产股的集中上市。到了2007年底以后，对于这种上市，我们老百姓有什么需要注意的呢？以中石油为例，为什么那么多人被套牢？套牢的原因就是“兽性的冲动”，一开盘价格过高，后来回调。大家痛定思痛，可能大陆股市会和香港股市一样，新股上市一开盘就跌。所以，我们到了2008年必须特别注意。 以上就是我们今天对于房地产关键词的解读。谢谢各位现场来宾，谢谢电视机前的观众观看我们的节目。goodbye!