Chapter 46 8. Controversy over the inflection point theory
In the second half of 2007, the inflection point theory put forward by Wang Shi aroused everyone's controversy. Now the impact of the financial crisis is gradually spreading, and my country's real estate market has also shown a sluggish trend.Recently, the state has issued a number of policies to stimulate the real estate economy: from November 1, 2008, the deed tax rate for individuals purchasing houses of 90 square meters or less for the first time was reduced to 1%, and personal sales or purchases of houses are temporarily exempted Stamp duty and land value-added tax are collected, and the minimum down payment is adjusted to 20%.The launch of this series of policies is to encourage consumption. So, in such an environment, is today a good time to buy a house?
●Especially to beat so many real estate developers to copy to the end, I think it may be more difficult. ●The real estate with bubbles is mostly low-end real estate. ●Wenzhou’s housing price is 20,000 yuan per square meter, while Jiaxing’s is only 4,000 yuan per square meter. How do you explain it? ●It was also reported some time ago that several developers went to raise pigs. Cai Hongyan: For house buyers, if you actually need it, you should buy it early at any time.From the perspective of the entire market, at this stage, I think buying a house in Beijing should be a very good time in terms of real living needs and investment. I know that many institutions and investors are looking for investment Valuable housing sources are buying bottoms, these investment institutions and investors are actually sending a signal, and their behavior must represent a judgment on the market. Lu Xinzhi (senior media person, business observer): This is how Ma Yun described his wife back then. He was also his partner at the time. He had two nouns. When he first started a business with him, he called his wife a means of production. Later, When the business grew, he let his wife go home to take care of the children, and defined his wife as a means of living.There are also two different categories for everyone to buy a house. Do you regard it as an investment product, then the house is a means of production, or it is just a means of living for you to live in? The two are different.Just imagine if you are in Beijing or Shanghai, and you want to work and live here, then your first house must belong to the category of means of living, and you can’t live in it, or maybe you If you live in a relatively poor environment, it will not be of much value for you to make another investment at this time.From this point of view, you have to look at your own ability to pay, and you must buy it when your ability to pay can afford it.Because no matter whether it is the property market or the stock market, it is basically difficult for you to clearly predict where its bottom is. You can only consider it from your own personal point of view. That is to say, everyone wants to buy smartly and buy the cheapest one. One set, but from a historical point of view, it seems that this point is an impossible task for most people.So I suggest that everyone should look at themselves more rationally. I believe that everyone also has normal rational judgments. It is difficult for you to defeat all other people in society, especially to defeat so many real estate developers. To copy to the end, I think it may be more difficult. Big. But for us ordinary people, I think whether it is investing in buying a house or buying a house for us to live in, we all expect that when we enter the property market, the price will be lower, the bubble will be smaller, and our investment cost will be less. Yes, then we will get more, or the house we bought will be more cost-effective.
Cai Hongyan: There is another phenomenon. At the end of last year, we conducted a survey on the occupancy rate of Star River.At that time, we surveyed more than 500 owners of the first phase of Star River, including some very famous performers. We sent out questionnaires. We directly interviewed 12 owners. The data we got was that among the surveyed residents Among them, more than 50% of them rarely live in the house in Star River. He only comes to Beijing once in a while to live in this place.Therefore, we call this type of customer group the savings-type investment customer group, and in Beijing, it is the customer group dominated by these investors that really affects the entire real estate market in Beijing.Before the end of 2008, housing prices in Chinese cities rose sharply. Generally speaking, more than 90% of the urban housing price increases were due to the fact that the investment customers in the area radiated by the city bought houses in this city, which promoted the development of this city. Demand and drive up housing prices in cities.And cities with weaker radiation will have slower house price rises. For example, Chongqing is the most typical one, while Beijing and Shanghai have the strongest radiation, so their house price rises the fastest.Including Shenzhen, the investors it brings radiate across the country. Shenzhen itself is an immigrant city developed in the past 20 to 30 years, so some investor groups, including Hong Kong investors, are leading the development of this city. Therefore, our regulatory direction has undergone some changes in these aspects since last year. Lang Xianping: The question raised by Lao Cai just now is very important. I think we have not grasped the key point of the real estate market, whether it is macro-control or implementing other policies. I would like to explain why the prices of some real estate are still very firm. But others have fallen.Let me explain my theoretical background.Why did Lao Cai’s so-called phenomenon occur? From 2006 to 2007, especially in 2007, the housing prices in Guangzhou, especially Shenzhen, doubled several times, which is very abnormal. What do you think is the reason, for example The stock price is the same. In 2007, it reached more than 6,000 points, but in 2008 it was very miserable. Why did so many bubbles occur in 2007? In the past 10 years, China's real estate industry has experienced a high-growth stage. Housing prices in various places have increased to varying degrees, and the profits of real estate companies have also increased year by year. Especially in the first half of 2007, house prices rose one after another, and the competition for land kings intensified. , so why are there so many bubbles in the real estate market?Is the correction of house prices today just affected by the US financial crisis?What kind of mysterious relationship is behind this?
●Especially to beat so many real estate developers to copy to the end, I think it may be more difficult. ●The real estate with bubbles is mostly low-end real estate. ●Wenzhou’s housing price is 20,000 yuan per square meter, while Jiaxing’s is only 4,000 yuan per square meter. How do you explain it? ●It was also reported some time ago that several developers went to raise pigs. Cai Hongyan: For house buyers, if you actually need it, you should buy it early at any time.From the perspective of the entire market, at this stage, I think buying a house in Beijing should be a very good time in terms of real living needs and investment. I know that many institutions and investors are looking for investment Valuable housing sources are buying bottoms, these investment institutions and investors are actually sending a signal, and their behavior must represent a judgment on the market. Lu Xinzhi (senior media person, business observer): This is how Ma Yun described his wife back then. He was also his partner at the time. He had two nouns. When he first started a business with him, he called his wife a means of production. Later, When the business grew, he let his wife go home to take care of the children, and defined his wife as a means of living.There are also two different categories for everyone to buy a house. Do you regard it as an investment product, then the house is a means of production, or it is just a means of living for you to live in? The two are different.Just imagine if you are in Beijing or Shanghai, and you want to work and live here, then your first house must belong to the category of means of living, and you can’t live in it, or maybe you If you live in a relatively poor environment, it will not be of much value for you to make another investment at this time.From this point of view, you have to look at your own ability to pay, and you must buy it when your ability to pay can afford it.Because no matter whether it is the property market or the stock market, it is basically difficult for you to clearly predict where its bottom is. You can only consider it from your own personal point of view. That is to say, everyone wants to buy smartly and buy the cheapest one. One set, but from a historical point of view, it seems that this point is an impossible task for most people.So I suggest that everyone should look at themselves more rationally. I believe that everyone also has normal rational judgments. It is difficult for you to defeat all other people in society, especially to defeat so many real estate developers. To copy to the end, I think it may be more difficult. Big. But for us ordinary people, I think whether it is investing in buying a house or buying a house for us to live in, we all expect that when we enter the property market, the price will be lower, the bubble will be smaller, and our investment cost will be less. Yes, then we will get more, or the house we bought will be more cost-effective.
Cai Hongyan: There is another phenomenon. At the end of last year, we conducted a survey on the occupancy rate of Star River.At that time, we surveyed more than 500 owners of the first phase of Star River, including some very famous performers. We sent out questionnaires. We directly interviewed 12 owners. The data we got was that among the surveyed residents Among them, more than 50% of them rarely live in the house in Star River. He only comes to Beijing once in a while to live in this place.Therefore, we call this type of customer group the savings-type investment customer group, and in Beijing, it is the customer group dominated by these investors that really affects the entire real estate market in Beijing.Before the end of 2008, housing prices in Chinese cities rose sharply. Generally speaking, more than 90% of the urban housing price increases were due to the fact that the investment customers in the area radiated by the city bought houses in this city, which promoted the development of this city. Demand and drive up housing prices in cities.And cities with weaker radiation will have slower house price rises. For example, Chongqing is the most typical one, while Beijing and Shanghai have the strongest radiation, so their house price rises the fastest.Including Shenzhen, the investors it brings radiate across the country. Shenzhen itself is an immigrant city developed in the past 20 to 30 years, so some investor groups, including Hong Kong investors, are leading the development of this city. Therefore, our regulatory direction has undergone some changes in these aspects since last year. Lang Xianping: The question raised by Lao Cai just now is very important. I think we have not grasped the key point of the real estate market, whether it is macro-control or implementing other policies. I would like to explain why the prices of some real estate are still very firm. But others have fallen.Let me explain my theoretical background.Why did Lao Cai’s so-called phenomenon occur? From 2006 to 2007, especially in 2007, the housing prices in Guangzhou, especially Shenzhen, doubled several times, which is very abnormal. What do you think is the reason, for example The stock price is the same. In 2007, it reached more than 6,000 points, but in 2008 it was very miserable. Why did so many bubbles occur in 2007? In the past 10 years, China's real estate industry has experienced a high-growth stage. Housing prices in various places have increased to varying degrees, and the profits of real estate companies have also increased year by year. Especially in the first half of 2007, house prices rose one after another, and the competition for land kings intensified. , so why are there so many bubbles in the real estate market?Is the correction of house prices today just affected by the US financial crisis?What kind of mysterious relationship is behind this?