Chapter 44 6. What people in the industry think
I believe that many readers have understood my discussion in this chapter, so the next question must be whether I should buy a house in 2009 or not?I am not an intermediary. I never tell readers whether they should buy a house or not. That is your own decision. I just tell readers what the fundamentals are that determine housing prices.On this basis, I invited some people in the industry and asked them to talk about whether they should buy a house. Readers will think about my point of view after listening to their speeches. I believe you can make a more mature decision.
●The impact of the global financial crisis on my country's real estate market.At present, real estate developers are in a state of anxiety.
●Whether the government's bailout can restore the confidence of home buyers.If this consumer confidence has been falling, then this problem is more serious
●Is it time to buy a house in today's environment?Should we buy a house at this time?
●Now should be a good time.Who can not clearly predict where the bottom of housing prices?
In the second half of 2008, after the Vanke price cut incident, which caused a lot of turmoil on the Internet, a lot of controversy arose.Readers are quite concerned about whether similar price cuts will happen again in 2009?At this time, whether we should buy a house or not.
September 2008 was a difficult month for Vanke, a well-known real estate company, because they launched a series of discount promotions.It aroused the dissatisfaction of the old owners, and some emotional owners even rushed into the sales office and asked to check out.The check-out dispute has aroused widespread concern in the society.Whether or not the house should be returned has aroused heated discussions among everyone. Although the incident of Vanke checking out has passed for some time, it has come to an end with Vanke's resolute refusal to check out for the time being.However, the seemingly peaceful Vanke Company is already under a turbulent internal situation, and real estate developers around the world are even more besieged.So, looking back at this check-out incident, should we buy a house under the general environment of the global financial crisis?
Gu Fanglong (Vice President of China Famous Brand Magazine, Xinhua News Agency): I think Vanke's price reduction is a normal corporate behavior, and companies in the market must take survival as the top priority.The economic laws we have learned tell us that real estate is only a manifestation of a society’s economic prosperity. When the entire economic foundation begins to shake, real estate cannot be pulled up no matter how hard it is, it can only fall all the way down. Cai Hongyan (Chairman of "Property Market Media"): From the perspective of Vanke's own consistent development history, I don't think that Vanke's price cut is a normal operation that is really for the benefit of the company.Vanke has always had ambitions for the market share of the real estate industry.Its price reduction behavior is self-contradictory when we analyze it from the perspective of its own business philosophy.How did the Vanke brand come about? The Vanke brand was created based on humanized property management.What is property management? It is a service, a brand created with customer service as the core, and now it is taking the lead in reducing prices, and it is reducing prices one after another in five or six cities across the country.We believe that for a responsible company with a good corporate culture, corporate philosophy, respect for customers, this kind of situation should not happen even once, let alone it happens one after another. He Hongguang (President of Sinochem Timeshare): In fact, the real estate market is also a market economy. Just now, as many of our guests have said, when the market turns around, Wang Shi also raised the point of view of turning point in the media.In fact, as the leader of China's largest real estate company, we used to have a saying called "The Prophet of Plumbing Ducks in the Spring River". He may have the largest amount of information, including research on policies. In this case, as Vanke, the leader of the largest real estate company in the country, may have hoarded a lot of land when the real estate market was booming. According to the policy, it must complete the development of the land within a certain period of time. This is another pressure on it. As a national A landmark real estate company does not mean that it will take the lead in lowering prices, but that it follows the laws of the market. Zheng Rongxia (President of Zedicui Investment Guarantee Co., Ltd.): Personally, I agree with Lao Cai.Although the real estate we develop is relatively small, as far as I am concerned, I don't think that because the current market environment is not good, the house price will be greatly reduced.Because each real estate agent has a positioning for the real estate when he sets the price. He will not say that I will immediately lower the price because the market is not good today.After all, there is a market assessment at the beginning of the real estate development, and a lot of market research, market assessment and cost accounting have been done. In this case, don't easily lower the price because of market fluctuations. It is not appropriate to do so in the short term . Regardless of whether Vanke's price reduction is to seize the market, or it is a helpless move, at least it makes us feel that there is a bubble in this housing price.Its earliest price was about 13,000 yuan per square meter, and later dropped to an average price of 10,800 yuan per square meter, and a drop of more than 2,000 yuan per square meter.This is why all the owners reacted so strongly. A house may cost 100,000-200,000 yuan, so this is not a small amount for ordinary people.And we also feel it, because Vanke's price cut has brought a lot of commotion, many people who want to buy a house are afraid to buy a house at this time, and the transaction volume of many real estate developers is shrinking. Lang Xianping: Here is a very important issue called pricing power. The thinking of how to set prices is particularly important. We should not take it too magically.At present in our China, this is the environment and this level. Let me tell you that our current real estate developers are terrified.Why panic, the reason is very simple.First, his cost is a rigid cost, such as his land purchase cost, house construction cost, and other rigid cost expenses. If the funds are backlogged, the interest expense will be enormous.What are his needs under the rigid cost, let's put ourselves in his shoes.The main reason why everyone buys a house is not that the economy is developing very well, nor is it that the common people’s annual income has increased by 50% and they are getting richer, so they spend half of their money to buy a house.If it is this kind of normal shopping behavior, relatively speaking, it is relatively easy to predict how much money will flow into the property market, because you can predict it based on the economic development of the area. Real estate developers can slowly build houses according to demand. It's all pretty predictable.But this is not the case at present. The source of funds is unclear, and the inflow and outflow of funds cannot be predicted.For example, there is a well-known high-end real estate in Beijing called Star River, and I also went to see its third phase.After watching it, I knew I couldn't afford it, and I just went to see it.The sales lady told me that the price was 40,000 yuan per square meter, of which the decoration was 10,000 yuan per square meter. I was very interested to see their decoration.Wow, the decoration is magnificent, it feels like entering a nightclub.I don't understand how many people you said we would pay an extra 10,000 yuan per square meter for living in a nightclub.Therefore, the current source of funds in the property market is very strange, not normal funds.Therefore, once a real estate developer develops a high-end real estate, he will make adjustments according to market conditions.Therefore, differentiated adjustments and differentiated pricing are required, which are their countermeasures.But in this way, the pressure on middle and low-end real estate will be very heavy, including many affordable housing and low-rent housing launched by the government, and housing prices in many places are indeed falling. So what should we do?Therefore, the Vanke phenomenon will appear in the prices of middle and low-end real estate, and you can understand it.Because in this environment, he chose this method. As some people said, what should we do if the economic situation in 2009 is even worse?What if more people cannot afford housing?So it will suddenly make some decisions to change the pricing power. Then these are decisions made by real estate developers under panic. I think it is a decision on pricing power. In fact, it is not as complicated as everyone thinks.
Gu Fanglong (Vice President of China Famous Brand Magazine, Xinhua News Agency): I think Vanke's price reduction is a normal corporate behavior, and companies in the market must take survival as the top priority.The economic laws we have learned tell us that real estate is only a manifestation of a society’s economic prosperity. When the entire economic foundation begins to shake, real estate cannot be pulled up no matter how hard it is, it can only fall all the way down. Cai Hongyan (Chairman of "Property Market Media"): From the perspective of Vanke's own consistent development history, I don't think that Vanke's price cut is a normal operation that is really for the benefit of the company.Vanke has always had ambitions for the market share of the real estate industry.Its price reduction behavior is self-contradictory when we analyze it from the perspective of its own business philosophy.How did the Vanke brand come about? The Vanke brand was created based on humanized property management.What is property management? It is a service, a brand created with customer service as the core, and now it is taking the lead in reducing prices, and it is reducing prices one after another in five or six cities across the country.We believe that for a responsible company with a good corporate culture, corporate philosophy, respect for customers, this kind of situation should not happen even once, let alone it happens one after another. He Hongguang (President of Sinochem Timeshare): In fact, the real estate market is also a market economy. Just now, as many of our guests have said, when the market turns around, Wang Shi also raised the point of view of turning point in the media.In fact, as the leader of China's largest real estate company, we used to have a saying called "The Prophet of Plumbing Ducks in the Spring River". He may have the largest amount of information, including research on policies. In this case, as Vanke, the leader of the largest real estate company in the country, may have hoarded a lot of land when the real estate market was booming. According to the policy, it must complete the development of the land within a certain period of time. This is another pressure on it. As a national A landmark real estate company does not mean that it will take the lead in lowering prices, but that it follows the laws of the market. Zheng Rongxia (President of Zedicui Investment Guarantee Co., Ltd.): Personally, I agree with Lao Cai.Although the real estate we develop is relatively small, as far as I am concerned, I don't think that because the current market environment is not good, the house price will be greatly reduced.Because each real estate agent has a positioning for the real estate when he sets the price. He will not say that I will immediately lower the price because the market is not good today.After all, there is a market assessment at the beginning of the real estate development, and a lot of market research, market assessment and cost accounting have been done. In this case, don't easily lower the price because of market fluctuations. It is not appropriate to do so in the short term . Regardless of whether Vanke's price reduction is to seize the market, or it is a helpless move, at least it makes us feel that there is a bubble in this housing price.Its earliest price was about 13,000 yuan per square meter, and later dropped to an average price of 10,800 yuan per square meter, and a drop of more than 2,000 yuan per square meter.This is why all the owners reacted so strongly. A house may cost 100,000-200,000 yuan, so this is not a small amount for ordinary people.And we also feel it, because Vanke's price cut has brought a lot of commotion, many people who want to buy a house are afraid to buy a house at this time, and the transaction volume of many real estate developers is shrinking. Lang Xianping: Here is a very important issue called pricing power. The thinking of how to set prices is particularly important. We should not take it too magically.At present in our China, this is the environment and this level. Let me tell you that our current real estate developers are terrified.Why panic, the reason is very simple.First, his cost is a rigid cost, such as his land purchase cost, house construction cost, and other rigid cost expenses. If the funds are backlogged, the interest expense will be enormous.What are his needs under the rigid cost, let's put ourselves in his shoes.The main reason why everyone buys a house is not that the economy is developing very well, nor is it that the common people’s annual income has increased by 50% and they are getting richer, so they spend half of their money to buy a house.If it is this kind of normal shopping behavior, relatively speaking, it is relatively easy to predict how much money will flow into the property market, because you can predict it based on the economic development of the area. Real estate developers can slowly build houses according to demand. It's all pretty predictable.But this is not the case at present. The source of funds is unclear, and the inflow and outflow of funds cannot be predicted.For example, there is a well-known high-end real estate in Beijing called Star River, and I also went to see its third phase.After watching it, I knew I couldn't afford it, and I just went to see it.The sales lady told me that the price was 40,000 yuan per square meter, of which the decoration was 10,000 yuan per square meter. I was very interested to see their decoration.Wow, the decoration is magnificent, it feels like entering a nightclub.I don't understand how many people you said we would pay an extra 10,000 yuan per square meter for living in a nightclub.Therefore, the current source of funds in the property market is very strange, not normal funds.Therefore, once a real estate developer develops a high-end real estate, he will make adjustments according to market conditions.Therefore, differentiated adjustments and differentiated pricing are required, which are their countermeasures.But in this way, the pressure on middle and low-end real estate will be very heavy, including many affordable housing and low-rent housing launched by the government, and housing prices in many places are indeed falling. So what should we do?Therefore, the Vanke phenomenon will appear in the prices of middle and low-end real estate, and you can understand it.Because in this environment, he chose this method. As some people said, what should we do if the economic situation in 2009 is even worse?What if more people cannot afford housing?So it will suddenly make some decisions to change the pricing power. Then these are decisions made by real estate developers under panic. I think it is a decision on pricing power. In fact, it is not as complicated as everyone thinks.