Chapter 25 3. How to spend the 4 trillion RMB is the right way

●How is the fund in the 4 trillion RMB constituted? ●Resources are transferred from the private economy to the public construction sector, resulting in overheating of the public sector.And the private economy is too cold. ●Your salary growth rate minus the inflation rate, how many people are earning.I believe many people are negative. ●Who really employs 90% of the employees?It is the private economy that occupies our total economic output. ●If the financial crisis affects their consumption, what should we do if they stop importing and we cannot export? I have some ideas about how to use the 4 trillion yuan.Think about it, everyone, is it right for us to invest a lot of money in infrastructure construction? At the same time, I would like to ask you again, how is the fund in the 4 trillion yuan constituted?Among them, 1 trillion yuan is paid by the central government, 1 trillion yuan is paid by local governments, and another 2 trillion yuan is financed by banks.First of all, I am very worried that the 1 trillion yuan of the local government will not be released. Why are you so worried?Because it is the same in any country, when the economy is gradually going into depression, tax revenue will be greatly reduced, and a large part of our local government’s tax revenue is related to real estate, including various taxes on real estate and income from auction land, accounting for our tax revenue a large part of.Of course.Others include income tax, various corporate taxes and so on.

But the current real estate market is very depressed.Moreover, the situation of land auctions in various places is not optimistic, not only the prices are extremely low.There are even often unsold phenomenon.On the other hand, the operation of enterprises is also relatively difficult, and the tax revenue has naturally been greatly reduced. This is why in Guangdong, the tax revenue of many local governments has dropped sharply since September 2008.If the tax revenue falls sharply in the economic depression, how can the local government pay the 1 trillion yuan?Of course, there are some views that local governments can issue bonds, but this argument has been rejected by the government at present, and the money should be paid out of fiscal revenue.But I think it's very difficult.Therefore, the safest money is probably 2 trillion yuan in bank financing.

If there is a problem with the fiscal and tax revenue of the central government and local governments in 2009, it is likely that they will also turn to banks to continue financing, so in the end, I am very worried that bank financing has become a last resort.Just now I asked readers, where does the money for bank financing come from?I believe that the resources of the private economy will be squeezed out by the banks and transferred to the government for infrastructure construction projects.As a result, a special dual environment will be created, that is to say, funds will be transferred from the private enterprise sector to the public construction sector, so the public construction sector will slowly expand, while the private economy will gradually slump.This is the reality.

Moreover, the stock price trend from early to late November 2008 began to reflect the dual economy.The original stock index was more than 1,700 points, but because the government proposed a rescue plan of 4 trillion yuan, the stock price rose to nearly 2,000 points.Please think about it, which stocks are rising?It is the stock prices of steel, cement, large machinery, large state-owned enterprises, etc. that have risen, thus driving the market to rise to more than 2,000 points. Please think about it again, have the stock prices of the private economy such as people's livelihood necessities and consumer goods risen?You will find that it has not risen.In other words, it is about 20% or 30% of the sector that drove the stock index to 2000 points.Of course, by the end of November 2008, the stock index continued to fall.Let me tell you that the stock price trend fully reflects the dual economy phenomenon I just told you, that is to say, the inevitable result after 4 trillion yuan is invested is that a large amount of resources will be transferred from the private economy to the public construction field, thus forming the public sector. It is a situation where the private economy is overheated and the private economy is too cold.This phenomenon of coexistence of overheating and undercooling is also reflected in the trend of our entire stock market throughout November, that is, the overheated sector drove the rise of the stock index, while the overcooled sector did not drive the stock index.By the end of November, the stock price has started to fall again, and you find that the situation is not as rosy as we thought.This phenomenon of the overheated sector pulling the stock index did not last, but repeated.This worries me a lot. What are you worried about?Worried that we decided too early on the use of the 4 trillion yuan.I think we should learn from the U.S. government, stay flexible at all times, and use funds wherever they are needed, instead of focusing on infrastructure.

Do readers think it is necessary for us to maintain an economic growth rate of 8% to 10% every year?First of all, I want to communicate with the people and the government across the country from the perspective of ideas.We take 2008 as an example, the GDP growth rate in 2008 can reach 9%.What does economic growth rate mean?In practice it implies an increase in output in real terms.For example, if there are bottles of mineral water this year, next year there will be 110 bottles of mineral water. Compared with 100 bottles, 110 bottles is equivalent to an increase of 10%.Here, we don't talk about the price of mineral water. Whether the price rises or falls, we don't look at it. Let's see that the actual mineral water has increased from 100 bottles to 110 bottles. This is a 10% increase in real output. .Therefore, the growth rate of our GDP is similar to the increase of mineral water from 100 bottles to 110 bottles, and the price is not important.

I would like to ask readers, if the factor of inflation is excluded, that is to say, the profit growth rate minus the real value profit growth rate of the inflation rate, how many enterprises have a positive profit growth rate?And your salary growth rate minus the real salary growth rate of the inflation rate, how many people's salary growth rate is still positive.I believe many people are negative. If your real salary growth rate and real profit growth rate are negative, but your GDP growth rate is positive, do you know what it means?That is the result of the transfer of a large amount of resources from the private economy to the public construction field.In other words, we can still achieve a dazzling GDP growth rate, but the price we pay is that the private economy loses resources and makes everyone poorer.So this is not what I want to see.And this is why I suggest that the government must pay special attention when using the 4 trillion yuan.The purpose of the government's bailout is correct, and the speed is decisive.But in terms of rescue measures, we are still a little bit rigid.Judging from the policies introduced by the US government in the past two months, the flexible policy of the US government is indeed worth learning.

I think we should not avoid the question.As a scholar, I think that 4 trillion yuan should be used on the edge of the knife, that is to say, 4 trillion yuan should be used through the power of the government to industries related to people's livelihood.To put it more extreme, this is 4 trillion yuan.I don't want it to be used in public construction, because I never think that building bridges and paving roads can make most people fully employed. Of course, I never deny that building bridges and paving roads can increase the employment of construction workers. Please pay attention, who really employs 90% of the practitioners?It is a private economy that accounts for 70% of our total economic output.It is they who employ the vast majority of our working population in all of China.Although the construction of these basic projects does require hiring people, no matter how many people are hired, it is far inferior to the private economy that accounts for 70% of our total economic output.And the quantity varies greatly, so don't pick up sesame seeds and lose watermelon.If the private economy loses its source of funds as a result, resulting in a recession, it will cause a large number of people to lose their jobs.The consequences of a large number of people being unemployed are very serious. Although the public sector can solve some employment problems, the scope of employment in the public sector is small after all, and the number of employed people is also limited.However, once the private economy declines, the amount of unemployment it will cause will be very large, which is terrible, so we must pay attention to this point.

I admit that although investment in the public construction field will also bring a certain promotion effect, if the money is used on the knife edge, the effect of bailing out the market will be different.In my opinion, this money should be used in the most efficient areas and areas that need money the most.The field of public construction currently does not need money.Compared with the 1990s, our consumption was relatively strong at that time, accounting for about 60% of the entire GDP.At that time, the benefits created by investing in infrastructure construction were very high. Today, compared with the 1990s, in order to create the same benefits, today’s basic investment must be increased by three times. similar benefits.Why?Because our infrastructure construction is too much, too excessive, and too inefficient.What is the proportion of our infrastructure, that is, the so-called reinforced concrete?Already as high as 55%, while consumption has been compressed to 35%.And I worry that the proportion of consumption will continue to decline.If the consumption of the whole society continues to decline, how can the whole macro economy be supported?

Moreover, the production capacity of our entire private economy accounts for as much as 70% of GDP, but our consumption can only absorb half of it, and the other half is overcapacity. What about this part?In the past, we relied on exports, but because of the global financial crisis caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis, if the financial crisis affects their consumption and they stop importing, what should we do if we cannot export?Then there will be a large number of factory closures, and a large number of people will lose their jobs.And it's a trend that's going on right now, and that's something I'm very worried about.

How to use the 4 trillion yuan on the knife edge?In my opinion, 4 trillion yuan should be used to increase consumption, and increasing consumption is not simply asking ordinary people to spend money.We need to change a concept, we talk about expanding domestic demand every day, so what is domestic demand?That is, domestic demand is called domestic demand.Can we change our thinking and increase supply?