Chapter 6 Chapter 05 The mystery behind the price trend of gold and US dollar
Highlights of this chapter: If you want to speculate on gold and foreign currencies, you must understand the essential reasons behind the trend in order to remain invincible.The price trend of gold and U.S. dollars is opposite. If you invest 100 yuan in gold, you must invest 100 yuan in U.S. dollars at the same time, and ensure that you will not make money through price hedging.This strategy achieved great success in the first quarter of 2009. Because international financial speculators and the US government colluded to cause gold and the dollar to rise together, the hedging strategy made a lot of money.To invest in Euros, Australian Dollars, New Zealand Dollars, and Canadian Dollars, you need to hedge against the same amount of U.S. dollars, because the price movements between them are also opposite, but the hedging strategy for the U.S. dollar and gold is better than hedging between currencies.
Funds flow into the foreign exchange market, and the mystery inside must be read. There is only one reason why the price of gold and the price of the dollar are diverging, and guess what? Surprised by a rare market, gold and the U.S. dollar actually rose together. The movement of the US dollar and the movement of gold are no longer opposite, but in the same direction. What's going on? The crisis continues to spread, try to solve the next financial battlefield. If I were an international financial speculator, how would I play this game? The U.S. dollar and gold are areas of concern for many, as many of our readers wish to invest in U.S. dollars or gold, and other financial products seem less attractive.Generally speaking, the trend of the US dollar and gold is just opposite. When the US dollar rises, gold falls, and when the US dollar falls, gold rises. Figure 5-1 shows the opposite trend of gold and the US dollar. The circled part in the figure is an exception. The reason for the exception will be explained later.I have spoken of this live subject before, without explaining why.So later I received a lot of calls, asking me to explain why the trend of the US dollar and gold run counter to each other.In fact, there is only one reason, and guess what?That is the manipulation of the US government.The U.S. government wants to maintain a strong and unique U.S. dollar, so it is afraid that investors will run to buy gold, especially in times of economic crisis. If everyone buys gold as a safe-haven tool, the international status of the U.S. dollar will plummet.Therefore, the purpose of the US government's operations for decades is to prevent gold from becoming a strong currency that replaces the US dollar. With the impact of the global financial crisis and the prominence of problems in China's manufacturing industry, many domestic funds have turned into hot money and are cruising in the investment market, seeking hedging.In addition to banking, stock market, property market and other fields, foreign exchange and gold have also become the favored targets of these funds.According to the past practice of the international market, when gold rises, the dollar will fall; conversely, when the dollar rises, gold will go out of the downtrend.Therefore, Professor Lang Xianping proposed in past programs that the hedging relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar can be used for investment hedging.So, why did gold and the dollar form a hedging relationship, and who played a key role behind this hedging relationship?
Figure 5-1 Five-year trend chart of gold and US dollar
Gold has been the most trusted means of payment since ancient times. However, looking at the history of the U.S. dollar and gold, we can see that after World War II, under the careful planning of the United States, the U.S. dollar replaced gold and became the world’s settlement currency. The Federal Reserve turned into a de facto "world central bank".With such a favorable position, the Federal Reserve's printing of dollars is no longer constrained by gold reserves, but is done spontaneously by maximizing its own interests.Today, the direct foreign debt of the United States alone is about 5 trillion U.S. dollars, which is ridiculed by economic experts as using only a pile of paper to grab the world's wealth of the same face value.As a vested interest, although it holds the world's largest gold reserve, the United States has always been highly vigilant about gold and is doing everything it can to manipulate and influence the gold market.So, how is the gold market manipulated?
The U.S. government has raised a group of people, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan and other Wall Street companies. They are called international financial capital, which is the international financial speculators I mentioned earlier.What does the US government support them for?Sniping gold is one of the goals.For example, the United States wants to maintain the strength of the dollar, so how to ensure that the dollar rises?If everyone invests in gold, the U.S. dollar will not rise, so the U.S. government must ensure that all international funds enter the U.S. dollar market instead of speculating on gold.In other words, in order to ensure that the dollar rises, gold must fall.How to make gold fall?These international financial speculators who ordered it to feed sold a large amount of gold in the gold market, and sold it in the futures market (it can be understood as short selling, that is, lending gold to financial institutions to sell at the price of 100 yuan today, and the price fell to 100 yuan tomorrow. 70 yuan, and then buy back the gold and return it to the financial institution. Since you sold it for 100 yuan and bought it for 70 yuan, you can earn a difference of 30 yuan), suppressing the price of gold. The international financial speculators supported by the U.S. government use the time difference to suppress the price of gold by buying or selling in the futures market and delivering in half a year or a few months.When the U.S. government decided to let the U.S. dollar rise, in order to ensure that all funds flow into the U.S. dollar market instead of going to the gold market, the U.S. government issued an order, and these international financial speculators sold a large number of them in the gold market, and they short-sold futures, half a year or three months later delivery.They suppressed the price of gold in this way, and everyone was afraid, so money flowed into the dollar market, and the dollar rose.But the question arises, such a large amount of selling, what should we do after the expiration date?For example, if I buy a refrigerator today, I will give you 100 yuan, and you will give me the refrigerator in three days.As long as I don't cancel the order, you have to give me the refrigerator in three days.The futures market is the same, if you sell gold today, it will be delivered in six months, and you have to give the gold to the other party, what should you do?Their purpose is to suppress the price, what should they do when the delivery is due? After a lot of research, I found a very interesting phenomenon. As long as there is a critical moment, for some reason, European banks (probably the pawns of the US government) will always throw out a fixed amount of 34 tons of gold for delivery.It is through this method that gold is continuously suppressed and the strength of the dollar is maintained.This is why I say that gold and dollar investment have a hedging relationship.So I suggest that if you buy 100 yuan of gold, you must buy 100 yuan of US dollars to hedge, and the result can be guaranteed not to lose money, because everything is manipulated. But recently I suddenly discovered that, as shown by the circle in Figure 5-1, from the end of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009, the trend of the US dollar and the trend of gold were no longer opposite but in the same direction.How is this going? In order to clearly show the movement of gold and the U.S. dollar in the same direction, we enlarge the circled part in Figure 5-1, as shown in Figure 5-2. The shaded part in the figure is gold from mid-November 2008 to the first quarter of 2009 And the trend of the dollar, we can clearly see that the trend of gold and the dollar is actually the same.
Figure 5-2 Convergence of Gold and the US Dollar
On January 20, 2009, Obama officially became the President of the United States.The global economic situation has not shown signs of stopping, and various funds continue to look for safe-haven exits.However, at this time, people were surprised to find another very strange thing, that is, the U.S. dollar and gold in the international market began to go out of a rare simultaneous rise, and both went higher. The convention of reciprocity is broken.According to Professor Lang Xianping's point of view, the US dollar and gold are suspected of being highly manipulated.So, what kind of secret is hidden behind the rare market where the US dollar and gold have risen together this time?
From the end of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009, the price trend of gold and the dollar became the same, which rarely happened before.Also in this month, the U.S. Dow Jones Index fell sharply, falling to around 8,000 points.I can tell readers that the Dow Jones Index cannot fall below 8,000 points. If it falls below 8,000 points, it will be the third financial tsunami.Most of the funds of American insurance companies are placed in the stock market. As long as the Dow Jones Index falls below 8,000 points, they will be insolvent and must be liquidated.Can you imagine the consequences of all the insurance companies in the United States being liquidated?That is the third financial tsunami. I recently took a look at the trade listings on the Gold Exchange, and I wanted to see who was trading.Interestingly, there is a company that I talk about repeatedly, Goldman Sachs.Goldman Sachs again, it is a real international financial speculator.I found out that Goldman Sachs has become a gold buyer since December 2008.It has been a seller in the past, helping the U.S. government suppress gold.At the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, I found that HSBC had also become a gold buyer. So why on earth is gold rising so fast and so out of control?The results of my analysis are as follows. The first time the US Bush administration proposed a bailout fund was 700 billion U.S. dollars, but later it was found that it was not enough. President Obama raised another 787 billion U.S. dollars, and will continue to raise 8.5 trillion U.S. dollars, or even as high as $23.7 trillion.In other words, the U.S. economy is facing continuous deterioration, and the deterioration is extremely fast. After the Spring Festival in 2009, investors were perplexed by the simultaneously rising US dollar and gold in the international market.Because this situation has lasted for more than two weeks, the international gold price has continued to stay above $900 per ounce.What's more noteworthy is that international investment institutions are still unanimously bullish on gold under this circumstance. UBS Group raised its forecast for the average price of gold in 2009 from US$700 to US$1,000, and US$1,000 per ounce is Goldman Sachs' forecast for the future of gold. Estimated monthly prices.What happened to the international gold market?
So, why does the U.S. government want to raise the exchange rate of the dollar at this time?Please think about it, where did so much bailout funds come from?Apart from printing money, there is only one way to borrow—how to borrow it? I said in the first chapter that the exchange rate is a means for the governments of various countries to achieve political goals, not as simple as our central bank to adjust the balance of payments with the RMB exchange rate.That being the case, we need to understand the political purpose of the U.S. government at this stage in order to understand the direction of the dollar's change.To put it bluntly, the political purpose of the United States is very simple, which is to borrow money.If the United States wants to borrow money, the dollar must remain strong in order to borrow more.What if the United States wants to pay back the money?It's better to depreciate the dollar, and have less talent.The U.S. government is now facing great pressure to borrow money, so it must deliberately use various methods to boost the dollar to keep the dollar strong so that the U.S. government can borrow money. However, under the impact of the financial tsunami, investors all over the world are panicked and want to avoid risks. What should we do?buy gold.Therefore, at this time, a large amount of funds will enter the gold market.Under such circumstances, even if the U.S. government calls on its pawns to suppress gold, they will not be able to suppress it, because the amount of funds to buy gold is too large.For example, at the end of December 2008, there were 8,600 contracts to be delivered.Because everyone lost confidence in the U.S. economy, a large amount of money ran to the gold market to avoid risks. If the U.S. government continues to suppress gold, it will definitely not be able to reverse the situation, because the demand for gold is too large. As a result, the U.S. government has been manipulating it for the past two decades. The gold market is out of control.Of course, the U.S. government has a lot of talents, and it is impossible for them not to understand the problems that even I can understand. I don't believe that the U.S. government will lose control of the gold market. So I think the most likely explanation is that the U.S. government has planned to order international financial speculators to buy gold from the futures market to "cooperate with market trends", so that the price of gold will rise sharply in a short period of time, further causing gold investors to panic. panic.As a result, more investors will enter the gold market to snap up gold.Readers, please think about it, what good does this do for the U.S. government?I can summarize two benefits. First, you must use U.S. dollars to buy gold.Take a European rushing to buy gold as an example. He must first sell euros, buy dollars, and then buy gold. This caused the euro to fall, the dollar to rise, and gold to rise.If people in other countries want to snap up gold, they must first sell their currencies to buy dollars, and then buy gold, resulting in the same effect.Isn't this the result of the rising dollar that the US government wants? Second, when investors all over the world are rushing to buy gold, the US dollar has risen, while the euro (and other major currencies) has fallen. Doesn’t this make the US dollar surpass the euro and other major currencies and become a real safe-haven currency? ? I think this is the real intention of the U.S. government, which can kill two birds with one stone, which not only makes the dollar appreciate, but also makes the dollar a safe-haven currency. A financial turmoil that started on Wall Street not only broke many old trading practices in the foreign exchange market, making the trend of the US dollar appear confusing, but also, the depression of the real economy also precipitated a large amount of funds, and had to look for profitable outlets outside the real economy .According to Professor Lang Xianping, this export is likely to be designed in the financial market.So, according to the characteristics of previous international financial speculators, where are they most likely to start a new financial war?
I am thinking now, if I were an international financial speculator, how would I play this game?The price of gold has already risen so high that it doesn't make sense to buy gold again.Moreover, the dollar assets held by financial speculators suffered heavy losses under the impact of the financial tsunami, which threatened the bank's claims.So what should financial speculators do?It seems that there is only one way to make money back as soon as possible. How to earn it back?It is extremely risky to continue lending dollars under the financial tsunami, so it is best to collude with the government to make money in the financial market.How to get it?The specific method is to collude with the US and European governments to sell the euro vigorously.As a result of the sell-off, the euro fell and the dollar strengthened.The stronger the U.S. dollar, the more terrified the common people are, so more people sell the euro.And this is also beneficial to the EU government, because the depreciation of the euro is beneficial to the EU's exports.However, there is a limit to selling euros. There is a fundamental difference between the United States and the European Union. The U.S. dollar is the settlement currency and can be issued without limit. The EU cannot, and the EU has restrictions on issuing euros.At the end of a large amount of selling, what should I do after selling?After the euro is thrown away, it will definitely rise back.If I were a financial speculator, the price of gold would be too high to buy, and I would lose more money if I lend more on US dollar assets.At this time, my only way is to wait for the US and EU governments to sell the euro, and then buy it in large quantities at a low price.After the European and American governments have nothing to throw away, the price of the euro will definitely rise.I predicted this in the program in February 2009, but I was not 100% sure at the time. The U.S. government wants to maintain the strength of the U.S. dollar, so international financial speculators colluded with the U.S. and EU governments to sell a large number of euros through the stabilization fund.As a result, the U.S. dollar remained strong, and the price of the euro plummeted. International financial speculators took the opportunity to buy the euro at a low price. losses caused by the financial tsunami. The U.S. government’s approach (to raise the price of the dollar to borrow money) is reflected in the stock market, that is, the Dow Jones Index fell from more than 9,000 points in early January 2009 to more than 6,000 points in March.Readers may be curious, why does the stock price fall when the dollar price rises?We can understand it this way, as the U.S. government raises the price of the dollar, more investors sell their stocks to snap up the dollar, thus causing the dollar to rise and the stock price to fall. As I said before, the Dow Jones Index cannot fall below 8,000 points, otherwise American insurance companies will be insolvent and will be liquidated, which will be the third financial tsunami.In order to avoid the third financial tsunami, stock prices cannot fall like this. Therefore, the US government is very busy now. Apart from throwing euros and carrying dollars, it also needs to support the stock market.In the TV show at that time, the story was told until February 6, 2009. What will happen tomorrow, I didn't know at the time. The result is very interesting. After February, the Dow Jones Index not only fell below 8,000 points, but even fell to more than 6,000 points. However, the crisis of insolvency of insurance companies cannot cause the Dow Jones Index to fall like this.Subsequent developments were just as I expected in February. The US government suddenly announced the issuance of US$1 trillion in banknotes in April.As a result, liquidity increased, just like China's stock market rebounded in 2009, and the Dow Jones Index returned to above 8,000 points, avoiding the crisis of insolvency of insurance companies.At the same time, because there were more U.S. dollars, the U.S. dollar fell sharply and the euro rose sharply, rising to 1.41 U.S. dollars for 1 euro.This result is the same as I expected in February. Financial speculators made a lot of money through this increase in the price of the euro. Readers may be curious, what is the purpose of the Federal Reserve issuing $1 trillion?Its purpose is to repurchase the medium and long-term treasury bonds of the US government.As a result of repurchasing treasury bonds, there will be sufficient funds, which will lead to a decline in the medium and long-term interest rates of treasury bonds, thereby stimulating the recovery of the US property market.The U.S. government’s $1 trillion plan can really kill two birds with one stone. It not only makes a fortune for international financial speculators, but also invigorates the real estate market, which is really brilliant. Readers may want to ask, the U.S. dollar has depreciated after April. Doesn't the U.S. government need to maintain a strong U.S. dollar and continue to borrow money to cope with the financial tsunami?I was also very puzzled at the time, and there was no way to understand the situation immediately.Just in July 2009, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said at a hearing in the US Congress that the US economy was out of danger in the first quarter of 2009.It was then that I suddenly realized that this is the case. Now that the U.S. economy has passed the crisis, there is no need to maintain a strong dollar, so the dollar will depreciate in April.It is also because there is no need to maintain a strong dollar against the market, so gold and the dollar have resumed the opposite trend since April.The U.S. government can manipulate the dollar to achieve the next political goal. I will discuss this topic again in the last chapter of this book. What political goal does the U.S. government want to achieve after the middle of 2009?Of course, my level is limited, only 30% sure, I think it is possible to target China. For investors, how should we manage our money?Due to the manipulation of the U.S. government, most of the time the price of gold moves opposite to that of the U.S. dollar. Therefore, to predict the trend of gold prices, one must first know the trend of the U.S. dollar, and to know the trend of the U.S. dollar, one must understand the political purpose of the U.S. government.But of course it is impossible for us to know the political purpose of the US government, so any dollar or gold analyst's attempt to predict the trend by analyzing economic phenomena will basically fail unless the political purpose of the US is known. In addition to the inverse movement between gold and the US dollar, the euro (and even AUD, NZD, CAD, etc.) and the US dollar also move in opposite directions.From the following, we can't guess the trend of gold and US dollar, so investors can consider hedging investment between gold and US dollar, such as 100 yuan of gold and 100 yuan of US dollars to hedge.Or consider hedging between currencies, such as buying 100 yuan of US dollars, and then buying 100 yuan of euros (or Australian dollars, New Zealand dollars, Canadian dollars, etc.).However I think the dollar and gold hedging strategy is better than the currency hedging because gold and the dollar suddenly moved in the same direction in the first quarter of 2009, so the gold and dollar hedging strategy can make a lot of money, while the currency hedging strategy does not This trend occurs. But I want to warn readers that gold alone is not a good investment.In the early days of the Republic of China, 1 tael of gold could buy 2 acres of good mountains, and 5 taels of gold could buy a courtyard house in Beijing.Now 1 kilogram of gold is equivalent to about 230,000 yuan, which can only be bought in a toilet in Beijing or Shanghai. Of course, it is mainly because gold is a manipulated investment product.Under the manipulation of Wall Street, there was a wave of "gold is useless" in the world in 1998. At that time, the central bank governors of various countries gathered to discuss how to sell gold.At that time, mine owners including mines in various countries believed that "gold will turn into copper in 10 years".When the price of gold dropped from over $800 per ounce in 1980 (see the leftmost circle in Figure 5-3) to over $250 per ounce in 1999 and 2001 (see the two right circles in Figure 5-3), Wall Street Many international financial speculators began to eat money secretly.In 2001, the "gold is useless theory" suddenly disappeared, and gold entered the second big bull market in history.Therefore, the best time to invest in gold is after 2001, but the reason why the trend of gold is good is because gold was hit to the bottom by Wall Street in 2001, and it is definitely not because gold is a great investment product. Moreover, the world economy will bottom out sooner or later, and paper money will still dominate in the future, and the value of gold will shrink on a large scale.I worry that when people's confidence slowly returns, the first thing people do may be to ditch gold.In addition, judging from the data for 20 consecutive years, the growth rate of gold price is very slow, only slightly higher than the inflation rate, and it is completely inferior to the U.S. Treasury bonds with a very low risk level among bonds, let alone any commodities.Therefore, it is meaningless to invest in gold for a long time. The best investment is to do the hedging I mentioned earlier, and you can't fool the common people into buying gold.
Figure 5-3 35-year gold price chart
Funds flow into the foreign exchange market, and the mystery inside must be read. There is only one reason why the price of gold and the price of the dollar are diverging, and guess what? Surprised by a rare market, gold and the U.S. dollar actually rose together. The movement of the US dollar and the movement of gold are no longer opposite, but in the same direction. What's going on? The crisis continues to spread, try to solve the next financial battlefield. If I were an international financial speculator, how would I play this game? The U.S. dollar and gold are areas of concern for many, as many of our readers wish to invest in U.S. dollars or gold, and other financial products seem less attractive.Generally speaking, the trend of the US dollar and gold is just opposite. When the US dollar rises, gold falls, and when the US dollar falls, gold rises. Figure 5-1 shows the opposite trend of gold and the US dollar. The circled part in the figure is an exception. The reason for the exception will be explained later.I have spoken of this live subject before, without explaining why.So later I received a lot of calls, asking me to explain why the trend of the US dollar and gold run counter to each other.In fact, there is only one reason, and guess what?That is the manipulation of the US government.The U.S. government wants to maintain a strong and unique U.S. dollar, so it is afraid that investors will run to buy gold, especially in times of economic crisis. If everyone buys gold as a safe-haven tool, the international status of the U.S. dollar will plummet.Therefore, the purpose of the US government's operations for decades is to prevent gold from becoming a strong currency that replaces the US dollar. With the impact of the global financial crisis and the prominence of problems in China's manufacturing industry, many domestic funds have turned into hot money and are cruising in the investment market, seeking hedging.In addition to banking, stock market, property market and other fields, foreign exchange and gold have also become the favored targets of these funds.According to the past practice of the international market, when gold rises, the dollar will fall; conversely, when the dollar rises, gold will go out of the downtrend.Therefore, Professor Lang Xianping proposed in past programs that the hedging relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar can be used for investment hedging.So, why did gold and the dollar form a hedging relationship, and who played a key role behind this hedging relationship?
Figure 5-1 Five-year trend chart of gold and US dollar
The U.S. government has raised a group of people, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan and other Wall Street companies. They are called international financial capital, which is the international financial speculators I mentioned earlier.What does the US government support them for?Sniping gold is one of the goals.For example, the United States wants to maintain the strength of the dollar, so how to ensure that the dollar rises?If everyone invests in gold, the U.S. dollar will not rise, so the U.S. government must ensure that all international funds enter the U.S. dollar market instead of speculating on gold.In other words, in order to ensure that the dollar rises, gold must fall.How to make gold fall?These international financial speculators who ordered it to feed sold a large amount of gold in the gold market, and sold it in the futures market (it can be understood as short selling, that is, lending gold to financial institutions to sell at the price of 100 yuan today, and the price fell to 100 yuan tomorrow. 70 yuan, and then buy back the gold and return it to the financial institution. Since you sold it for 100 yuan and bought it for 70 yuan, you can earn a difference of 30 yuan), suppressing the price of gold. The international financial speculators supported by the U.S. government use the time difference to suppress the price of gold by buying or selling in the futures market and delivering in half a year or a few months.When the U.S. government decided to let the U.S. dollar rise, in order to ensure that all funds flow into the U.S. dollar market instead of going to the gold market, the U.S. government issued an order, and these international financial speculators sold a large number of them in the gold market, and they short-sold futures, half a year or three months later delivery.They suppressed the price of gold in this way, and everyone was afraid, so money flowed into the dollar market, and the dollar rose.But the question arises, such a large amount of selling, what should we do after the expiration date?For example, if I buy a refrigerator today, I will give you 100 yuan, and you will give me the refrigerator in three days.As long as I don't cancel the order, you have to give me the refrigerator in three days.The futures market is the same, if you sell gold today, it will be delivered in six months, and you have to give the gold to the other party, what should you do?Their purpose is to suppress the price, what should they do when the delivery is due? After a lot of research, I found a very interesting phenomenon. As long as there is a critical moment, for some reason, European banks (probably the pawns of the US government) will always throw out a fixed amount of 34 tons of gold for delivery.It is through this method that gold is continuously suppressed and the strength of the dollar is maintained.This is why I say that gold and dollar investment have a hedging relationship.So I suggest that if you buy 100 yuan of gold, you must buy 100 yuan of US dollars to hedge, and the result can be guaranteed not to lose money, because everything is manipulated. But recently I suddenly discovered that, as shown by the circle in Figure 5-1, from the end of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009, the trend of the US dollar and the trend of gold were no longer opposite but in the same direction.How is this going? In order to clearly show the movement of gold and the U.S. dollar in the same direction, we enlarge the circled part in Figure 5-1, as shown in Figure 5-2. The shaded part in the figure is gold from mid-November 2008 to the first quarter of 2009 And the trend of the dollar, we can clearly see that the trend of gold and the dollar is actually the same.
Figure 5-2 Convergence of Gold and the US Dollar
From the end of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009, the price trend of gold and the dollar became the same, which rarely happened before.Also in this month, the U.S. Dow Jones Index fell sharply, falling to around 8,000 points.I can tell readers that the Dow Jones Index cannot fall below 8,000 points. If it falls below 8,000 points, it will be the third financial tsunami.Most of the funds of American insurance companies are placed in the stock market. As long as the Dow Jones Index falls below 8,000 points, they will be insolvent and must be liquidated.Can you imagine the consequences of all the insurance companies in the United States being liquidated?That is the third financial tsunami. I recently took a look at the trade listings on the Gold Exchange, and I wanted to see who was trading.Interestingly, there is a company that I talk about repeatedly, Goldman Sachs.Goldman Sachs again, it is a real international financial speculator.I found out that Goldman Sachs has become a gold buyer since December 2008.It has been a seller in the past, helping the U.S. government suppress gold.At the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, I found that HSBC had also become a gold buyer. So why on earth is gold rising so fast and so out of control?The results of my analysis are as follows. The first time the US Bush administration proposed a bailout fund was 700 billion U.S. dollars, but later it was found that it was not enough. President Obama raised another 787 billion U.S. dollars, and will continue to raise 8.5 trillion U.S. dollars, or even as high as $23.7 trillion.In other words, the U.S. economy is facing continuous deterioration, and the deterioration is extremely fast. After the Spring Festival in 2009, investors were perplexed by the simultaneously rising US dollar and gold in the international market.Because this situation has lasted for more than two weeks, the international gold price has continued to stay above $900 per ounce.What's more noteworthy is that international investment institutions are still unanimously bullish on gold under this circumstance. UBS Group raised its forecast for the average price of gold in 2009 from US$700 to US$1,000, and US$1,000 per ounce is Goldman Sachs' forecast for the future of gold. Estimated monthly prices.What happened to the international gold market?
So, why does the U.S. government want to raise the exchange rate of the dollar at this time?Please think about it, where did so much bailout funds come from?Apart from printing money, there is only one way to borrow—how to borrow it? I said in the first chapter that the exchange rate is a means for the governments of various countries to achieve political goals, not as simple as our central bank to adjust the balance of payments with the RMB exchange rate.That being the case, we need to understand the political purpose of the U.S. government at this stage in order to understand the direction of the dollar's change.To put it bluntly, the political purpose of the United States is very simple, which is to borrow money.If the United States wants to borrow money, the dollar must remain strong in order to borrow more.What if the United States wants to pay back the money?It's better to depreciate the dollar, and have less talent.The U.S. government is now facing great pressure to borrow money, so it must deliberately use various methods to boost the dollar to keep the dollar strong so that the U.S. government can borrow money. However, under the impact of the financial tsunami, investors all over the world are panicked and want to avoid risks. What should we do?buy gold.Therefore, at this time, a large amount of funds will enter the gold market.Under such circumstances, even if the U.S. government calls on its pawns to suppress gold, they will not be able to suppress it, because the amount of funds to buy gold is too large.For example, at the end of December 2008, there were 8,600 contracts to be delivered.Because everyone lost confidence in the U.S. economy, a large amount of money ran to the gold market to avoid risks. If the U.S. government continues to suppress gold, it will definitely not be able to reverse the situation, because the demand for gold is too large. As a result, the U.S. government has been manipulating it for the past two decades. The gold market is out of control.Of course, the U.S. government has a lot of talents, and it is impossible for them not to understand the problems that even I can understand. I don't believe that the U.S. government will lose control of the gold market. So I think the most likely explanation is that the U.S. government has planned to order international financial speculators to buy gold from the futures market to "cooperate with market trends", so that the price of gold will rise sharply in a short period of time, further causing gold investors to panic. panic.As a result, more investors will enter the gold market to snap up gold.Readers, please think about it, what good does this do for the U.S. government?I can summarize two benefits. First, you must use U.S. dollars to buy gold.Take a European rushing to buy gold as an example. He must first sell euros, buy dollars, and then buy gold. This caused the euro to fall, the dollar to rise, and gold to rise.If people in other countries want to snap up gold, they must first sell their currencies to buy dollars, and then buy gold, resulting in the same effect.Isn't this the result of the rising dollar that the US government wants? Second, when investors all over the world are rushing to buy gold, the US dollar has risen, while the euro (and other major currencies) has fallen. Doesn’t this make the US dollar surpass the euro and other major currencies and become a real safe-haven currency? ? I think this is the real intention of the U.S. government, which can kill two birds with one stone, which not only makes the dollar appreciate, but also makes the dollar a safe-haven currency. A financial turmoil that started on Wall Street not only broke many old trading practices in the foreign exchange market, making the trend of the US dollar appear confusing, but also, the depression of the real economy also precipitated a large amount of funds, and had to look for profitable outlets outside the real economy .According to Professor Lang Xianping, this export is likely to be designed in the financial market.So, according to the characteristics of previous international financial speculators, where are they most likely to start a new financial war?
I am thinking now, if I were an international financial speculator, how would I play this game?The price of gold has already risen so high that it doesn't make sense to buy gold again.Moreover, the dollar assets held by financial speculators suffered heavy losses under the impact of the financial tsunami, which threatened the bank's claims.So what should financial speculators do?It seems that there is only one way to make money back as soon as possible. How to earn it back?It is extremely risky to continue lending dollars under the financial tsunami, so it is best to collude with the government to make money in the financial market.How to get it?The specific method is to collude with the US and European governments to sell the euro vigorously.As a result of the sell-off, the euro fell and the dollar strengthened.The stronger the U.S. dollar, the more terrified the common people are, so more people sell the euro.And this is also beneficial to the EU government, because the depreciation of the euro is beneficial to the EU's exports.However, there is a limit to selling euros. There is a fundamental difference between the United States and the European Union. The U.S. dollar is the settlement currency and can be issued without limit. The EU cannot, and the EU has restrictions on issuing euros.At the end of a large amount of selling, what should I do after selling?After the euro is thrown away, it will definitely rise back.If I were a financial speculator, the price of gold would be too high to buy, and I would lose more money if I lend more on US dollar assets.At this time, my only way is to wait for the US and EU governments to sell the euro, and then buy it in large quantities at a low price.After the European and American governments have nothing to throw away, the price of the euro will definitely rise.I predicted this in the program in February 2009, but I was not 100% sure at the time. The U.S. government wants to maintain the strength of the U.S. dollar, so international financial speculators colluded with the U.S. and EU governments to sell a large number of euros through the stabilization fund.As a result, the U.S. dollar remained strong, and the price of the euro plummeted. International financial speculators took the opportunity to buy the euro at a low price. losses caused by the financial tsunami. The U.S. government’s approach (to raise the price of the dollar to borrow money) is reflected in the stock market, that is, the Dow Jones Index fell from more than 9,000 points in early January 2009 to more than 6,000 points in March.Readers may be curious, why does the stock price fall when the dollar price rises?We can understand it this way, as the U.S. government raises the price of the dollar, more investors sell their stocks to snap up the dollar, thus causing the dollar to rise and the stock price to fall. As I said before, the Dow Jones Index cannot fall below 8,000 points, otherwise American insurance companies will be insolvent and will be liquidated, which will be the third financial tsunami.In order to avoid the third financial tsunami, stock prices cannot fall like this. Therefore, the US government is very busy now. Apart from throwing euros and carrying dollars, it also needs to support the stock market.In the TV show at that time, the story was told until February 6, 2009. What will happen tomorrow, I didn't know at the time. The result is very interesting. After February, the Dow Jones Index not only fell below 8,000 points, but even fell to more than 6,000 points. However, the crisis of insolvency of insurance companies cannot cause the Dow Jones Index to fall like this.Subsequent developments were just as I expected in February. The US government suddenly announced the issuance of US$1 trillion in banknotes in April.As a result, liquidity increased, just like China's stock market rebounded in 2009, and the Dow Jones Index returned to above 8,000 points, avoiding the crisis of insolvency of insurance companies.At the same time, because there were more U.S. dollars, the U.S. dollar fell sharply and the euro rose sharply, rising to 1.41 U.S. dollars for 1 euro.This result is the same as I expected in February. Financial speculators made a lot of money through this increase in the price of the euro. Readers may be curious, what is the purpose of the Federal Reserve issuing $1 trillion?Its purpose is to repurchase the medium and long-term treasury bonds of the US government.As a result of repurchasing treasury bonds, there will be sufficient funds, which will lead to a decline in the medium and long-term interest rates of treasury bonds, thereby stimulating the recovery of the US property market.The U.S. government’s $1 trillion plan can really kill two birds with one stone. It not only makes a fortune for international financial speculators, but also invigorates the real estate market, which is really brilliant. Readers may want to ask, the U.S. dollar has depreciated after April. Doesn't the U.S. government need to maintain a strong U.S. dollar and continue to borrow money to cope with the financial tsunami?I was also very puzzled at the time, and there was no way to understand the situation immediately.Just in July 2009, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said at a hearing in the US Congress that the US economy was out of danger in the first quarter of 2009.It was then that I suddenly realized that this is the case. Now that the U.S. economy has passed the crisis, there is no need to maintain a strong dollar, so the dollar will depreciate in April.It is also because there is no need to maintain a strong dollar against the market, so gold and the dollar have resumed the opposite trend since April.The U.S. government can manipulate the dollar to achieve the next political goal. I will discuss this topic again in the last chapter of this book. What political goal does the U.S. government want to achieve after the middle of 2009?Of course, my level is limited, only 30% sure, I think it is possible to target China. For investors, how should we manage our money?Due to the manipulation of the U.S. government, most of the time the price of gold moves opposite to that of the U.S. dollar. Therefore, to predict the trend of gold prices, one must first know the trend of the U.S. dollar, and to know the trend of the U.S. dollar, one must understand the political purpose of the U.S. government.But of course it is impossible for us to know the political purpose of the US government, so any dollar or gold analyst's attempt to predict the trend by analyzing economic phenomena will basically fail unless the political purpose of the US is known. In addition to the inverse movement between gold and the US dollar, the euro (and even AUD, NZD, CAD, etc.) and the US dollar also move in opposite directions.From the following, we can't guess the trend of gold and US dollar, so investors can consider hedging investment between gold and US dollar, such as 100 yuan of gold and 100 yuan of US dollars to hedge.Or consider hedging between currencies, such as buying 100 yuan of US dollars, and then buying 100 yuan of euros (or Australian dollars, New Zealand dollars, Canadian dollars, etc.).However I think the dollar and gold hedging strategy is better than the currency hedging because gold and the dollar suddenly moved in the same direction in the first quarter of 2009, so the gold and dollar hedging strategy can make a lot of money, while the currency hedging strategy does not This trend occurs. But I want to warn readers that gold alone is not a good investment.In the early days of the Republic of China, 1 tael of gold could buy 2 acres of good mountains, and 5 taels of gold could buy a courtyard house in Beijing.Now 1 kilogram of gold is equivalent to about 230,000 yuan, which can only be bought in a toilet in Beijing or Shanghai. Of course, it is mainly because gold is a manipulated investment product.Under the manipulation of Wall Street, there was a wave of "gold is useless" in the world in 1998. At that time, the central bank governors of various countries gathered to discuss how to sell gold.At that time, mine owners including mines in various countries believed that "gold will turn into copper in 10 years".When the price of gold dropped from over $800 per ounce in 1980 (see the leftmost circle in Figure 5-3) to over $250 per ounce in 1999 and 2001 (see the two right circles in Figure 5-3), Wall Street Many international financial speculators began to eat money secretly.In 2001, the "gold is useless theory" suddenly disappeared, and gold entered the second big bull market in history.Therefore, the best time to invest in gold is after 2001, but the reason why the trend of gold is good is because gold was hit to the bottom by Wall Street in 2001, and it is definitely not because gold is a great investment product. Moreover, the world economy will bottom out sooner or later, and paper money will still dominate in the future, and the value of gold will shrink on a large scale.I worry that when people's confidence slowly returns, the first thing people do may be to ditch gold.In addition, judging from the data for 20 consecutive years, the growth rate of gold price is very slow, only slightly higher than the inflation rate, and it is completely inferior to the U.S. Treasury bonds with a very low risk level among bonds, let alone any commodities.Therefore, it is meaningless to invest in gold for a long time. The best investment is to do the hedging I mentioned earlier, and you can't fool the common people into buying gold.
Figure 5-3 35-year gold price chart