Chapter 4 Chapter 03 The recovery of the stock market, property market and auto market
Highlights of this chapter: Only by understanding the essential reasons behind the recovery of the stock market, property market and auto market can we be invincible.The reason why these three markets have picked up is because of the deterioration of the investment and business environment and overcapacity in recent years, which has caused the capital of the manufacturing industry to flow into these markets.The expansion of government credit scale has led to some credit funds entering the stock market, which has also caused state-owned enterprises to start frantically speculating in land.At the same time, the expansion of credit capital and the inflation expectations caused by international inflation made safe-haven funds enter the stock market and property market, which strengthened the recovery phenomenon.
The stock market is rising, the property market is hot, and the auto market is hot. What is behind these phenomena? Does it mean that the economy has completely recovered? I speak with data, and I offer a different point of view. Has the Chinese economy recovered rapidly?How should we think about the situation we face. If the whole world is in depression, but one of our markets is doing well, it is unreasonable and abnormal. The Chinese stock market was the first to pick up after four months ahead of the world; in the first half of 2009, the global property market fell into depression, but the Chinese property market rose sharply against the trend; in the first half of 2009, the US auto sales plummeted by 35%, while the Chinese market increased by 15% .Do these data really show that China's economy is leading the world in recovery?I want to tell readers that if we live differently from the whole world, I think we should be abnormal, not the whole world. What conclusions can we draw from the economic performance in the first half of this year?The conclusion is that my country's economy is facing three shocks.The first impact is that the investment and business environment faced by entrepreneurs is not as good as in 2006, and there is also a crisis of overcapacity brought about by the financial crisis; the second impact is the liquidity caused by bank loans as high as 7.37 trillion yuan in the first half of 2009 Excess; the third shock, 7.37 trillion bank credit and inflation expectations brought about by international inflation.That is to say, compared with 2006, the investment and operation environment and overcapacity problems of the manufacturing industry are worsening now, and there are more problems of excess liquidity and inflation psychological expectations. The first impact is the impact of manufacturing entrepreneurs on the deterioration of the investment and operating environment and the impact of overcapacity, so a large amount of money that should be invested in manufacturing is taken out and invested in the stock market. The second shock is that a large amount of bank credit funds enter the stock market.First, let’s talk about how the more than 7 trillion yuan was invested.More than half of it is used for infrastructure construction, bridge repairs and road paving, and the rest is for bill financing and short-term loans mainly for state-owned enterprises. The funds entering enterprises are about 2 trillion yuan.I pointed out at the beginning of 2009 that when companies, especially large ones, get more than 2 trillion short-term funds, and see that the investment and business environment is worse than in 2006, and there is serious overcapacity, they will do What?There may only be stocks, because they have no other choice. On July 24, 2009, the Accounting Division of the Ministry of Finance confirmed my view when they admitted that a large amount of bank credit had entered the stock market.Exactly how much money has entered the stock market?According to bank executives, more than 1 trillion yuan of funds have entered the stock market, but this is not the result of my own research, so I dare not say it is accurate. The third impact is the inflation expectations brought by the 7.37 trillion bank credits to the common people.What if inflation occurs?If you deposit your money in the bank, isn't that all "gross"?If you dare not deposit your money in the bank, what can you do?Since the first shock has not been resolved, and you dare not invest in the real economy, your choice may be stock trading.I would like to remind all readers that since June 2009, the international oil price has risen to more than 70 US dollars per barrel, and the resulting international inflation has begun to stir again, which will exert certain pressure on my country's future inflation, thereby stimulating More safe-haven funds entered the stock market.It is difficult to predict the future trend of international inflation. For example, oil prices fell back to $60 a barrel in July, but rose to more than $70 in August. Therefore, for the stock market, there are three funds entering the stock market-manufacturing funds, bank credit funds and safe-haven funds.But I would like to remind shareholders and friends to pay attention to the risks of the stock market in 2009.Credit funds entering the stock market are very sensitive to policy, so the risk of the stock market is greater than that of the bubble period in 2006.For example, the China Banking Regulatory Commission once said that it would investigate the problem of credit funds entering the market. As a result, the stock price plummeted a few days before and after April 24. Afterwards, the investigation was stopped and the stock market rose again. On July 29, it was rumored that the central bank might tighten credit. As I expected, a huge amount of funds fled, and the Shanghai Composite Index plummeted from 3,500 points to more than 3,200 points, a drop of 5%.In August, rumors of the central bank tightening credit continued to hit the stock market, and the stock index fell below 3,000 points in late August. In addition, the situation of China's stock market being manipulated by market makers never seems to improve. In May 2009, the market was only over 2,500 points, which seemed not to be high, but the small-cap stocks were dancing wildly, and some went up several times.In addition, not all individual stocks go up, but sectors go up in rounds. One sector goes up this week, that sector goes up next week, and another sector goes up the next week. It is obvious banker manipulation.This is very depressing for small and medium investors, what if they choose the wrong sector? I would like to remind all shareholders that the big rise of small-cap stocks and the round-up of the sector have shown years of traditional market maker manipulation. In addition, the credit funds entering the stock market are very sensitive to policies, so the stock market is very risky.Although small and medium-sized shareholders have the opportunity to make money during the bubble period, I suggested in April this year that small and medium-sized shareholders must fast in and fast out, and don't love to fight.Unexpectedly, in July, the 28th phenomenon in the stock market appeared again. The market was basically pulled up by large-cap stocks after 2,500 points, and it was pulled up to around 3,500 points at the end of July. During this period, small-cap stocks could not rise. On July 29, it was rumored that the central bank might tighten credit, and a large number of funds fled. The stock index plummeted to more than 3,200 points, and then continued to fall below 3,000 points.But as long as the central bank continues to loosen credit, the excess liquidity caused by bank credit expansion will continue to drive up the stock market. There are many other problems faced by my country's stock market, and I will just cite a few ready-made examples.As the stock market rises higher and higher, the inevitable pressure of profit-taking, large and small, and large and small limits comes. In the second half of 2009, about 600 billion restricted shares were lifted.In addition, the bad performance of listed companies will be disclosed again.According to the report of "Shanghai Securities News" on July 1, in the first half of 2009, more than 1,600 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen had 628 performance forecasts for the first half of the year. Among them, the proportion of "worries" exceeded 60%. Cooperating with credit capital risk and manipulation will increase the risk of the stock market. Due to the two major difficulties faced by entrepreneurs - the deterioration of the investment and business environment and the unresolved overcapacity, a large amount of manufacturing capital has flowed into high-end real estate in the real estate market.Take Dongguan, which suffered the most economically, as an example. In the first quarter of 2009, there was a strange phenomenon of inversion of industrial output value and real estate investment, which is similar to the performance of other cities in the Pearl River Delta.The city's total industrial output value plummeted by 13.5%, while the real estate industry was booming all the way in the same period: real estate development investment increased by 29.6% in the first quarter, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 12.1%, and the sales amount increased by 22.2%. Since 2009, the transaction volume of the real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou and other major cities has increased significantly. In Shanghai, more than 50% of the sales prices of real estate have been raised.According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide increased by 8.2% year-on-year, and the sales volume of commercial housing was 505.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%.In Beijing, 15,034 sets of commercial housing were sold, covering an area of 1,685,200 square meters, an increase of 79.53% from the previous month.However, during the Boao Forum for Asia in 2009, Pan Shiyi, a well-known real estate developer, publicly stated that the rapid increase in transactions in the national real estate market in the first quarter lacked the support of economic fundamentals, and real estate companies need to be quite cautious about future investment.In an atmosphere of recovery across the country, what is the reason for real estate developers to speak cautiously?
In addition, according to media reports, the high-end real estate projects in Laoxiguan, Guangzhou were unexpectedly favored by many private entrepreneurs after the Spring Festival in 2009.The person in charge of the project said: "A house is at least 2 million yuan. Among the buyers, there are very few first-time home buyers. Most of them are private business owners or self-employed. There are hundreds of millions in their hands who can't find a way out, so they choose to invest in houses. superior." Readers, please think about it again. Our common people are very smart. Everyone has seen 7.37 trillion credit funds poured into the market in the first half of 2009. What is your first reaction?What are you most worried about?Your first instinct is to create expectations about future inflation. You see, money is afraid to deposit in the bank for fear of inflation.So do you dare to invest in industry?You dare not invest in industry, because the investment and business environment in 2009 was even worse than in 2006, coupled with the overcapacity caused by the financial tsunami.Apart from speculating in stocks, you seem to have only one option, which is to buy a house.What does buying a house have to do with the economic recovery?It doesn't matter.In fact, the deteriorating investment and business environment and overcapacity led to the entry of manufacturing funds into high-end real estate. In addition, bank credit funds and inflation expectations caused by international inflation led to a large number of safe-haven funds escaping from inflation into the real estate market. Mainly high-end real estate. The following simple data can explain the situation of safe-haven funds caused by inflation entering the property market. 1. Once the leader of the "Wenzhou real estate speculators group" in Beijing, the current vice president of the Beijing Wenzhou Chamber of Commerce said to a reporter from the "China Times": "The bubbles in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are becoming more and more serious, which is different from previous years. In the same way, the return on investment there is too low and the risk is too high.” He also pointed out that in a Wenzhou investor circle he is familiar with, “Many people made their fortunes from real estate investment in the past few years. The pressure of inflation is increasing, the cash in hand cannot be kept in the bank, and we don’t want to toss in the first-tier cities where bubbles are piling up, so everyone pools funds and starts real estate development in second- and third-tier cities.” 2. Xue Jianxiong, an analyst at E-House China, pointed out to the media: "Behind many hot-selling high-end real estate in the Yangtze River Delta region, there will be a large number of business owners in Wenzhou and Ningbo. They are afraid of possible inflation in the future, so they invest a lot of idle funds in the property market.” 3. Li Ka-shing pointed out in May 2009: "Inflation will come sooner or later. In the current low interest rate environment, buying a property is a good investment. I believe it will definitely make money if you put it in three or four years." In order to stimulate the housing market, the government has also introduced many short-term favorable measures, including "second housing" loans and preferential tax policies.The promulgation of these favorable measures has played an effective catalytic role, and people's willingness to buy houses has become stronger, which has further contributed to the phenomenon of recovery, and basically the recovery is mainly high-end real estate. High-end real estate recovery data 1. In April 2009, the sales of villas in Shenzhen increased by 654.55% compared with the same period last year, while the growth rates from January to March were 16.9%, 50.82% and 36.11% respectively; Compared with the same period last year, they increased by 42.8% and 48.4% respectively; in Shanghai, the sales-to-supply ratio of villas in April reached 1.59:1.It's not just villas that are selling well, and it's not limited to the above-mentioned first-tier cities.High-end residences in second- and third-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta region, such as Wenzhou, Hangzhou, and Ningbo, are also selling well. 2. According to data from E-House China, "The sales volume of high-end apartments in Shanghai has also surged recently, among which the transaction volume of mid-to-high-end apartments with a unit price of more than 20,000 yuan per square meter has rebounded sharply. In the first 20 days of May, the transaction area of the above-mentioned high-end apartments It reached 179,300 square meters, nearly three times the total transaction volume in February." 3. According to the report of "China News Weekly", "People in the industry said that there is indeed a demand for value preservation and appreciation to buy houses. For example, high-end projects such as Star River and Ocean Wanhe City are selling very well." In addition, "Beijing Youshan The number of calls and visits to the Meidi project and the Grasse Town project has increased exponentially, and there are dozens of groups of customers who inspect the house every weekend, which basically exceeds the situation in 2007 when the real estate market was the hottest.” 4. According to the statistical data of CBN: in May 2009, the transaction volume of residential properties with a unit price of more than 40,000 yuan in Shanghai was 3.4 times that of April.Among them, after the average price of Jiayuan in the third phase of Cuihu Tiandi dropped to 60,000 yuan per square meter, 62 units were sold in late May. 5. According to the investigation of the high-end properties of its branches by the Hefu Real Estate Market Research Center, the top luxury housing market performed well in the first half of May, and the main contribution came from villa products, especially independent villas. "The transaction volume of first-hand detached villas increased by 40% in May." 6. According to media reports, the opening price of Star River in Shanghai skyrocketed from 30,000 yuan/square meter at the beginning of 2009 to more than 50,000 yuan/square meter in August.
However, this recovery is not due to the rigid demand for housing generated by the people's wealth, but because manufacturing funds and safe-haven funds have entered the property market, mainly high-end real estate, which has stimulated low-end real estate.Most homebuyers still have lingering fears, so some areas saw a decline in transaction volume in July.According to the report of China Index Research Institute, among the 30 cities it tracks and monitors, half of the urban residential transaction area declined in July. Among them, cities in South China and East China showed the most obvious performance. For example, Xiamen in South China fell by more than 20%, Dongguan by more than 6%; Hangzhou in East China fell by more than 30%, Wenzhou by more than 20%, and Ningbo by more than 10%.It seems that for the high-end real estate in big cities, the housing prices are still very strong, but the pressure of softening appears in the middle and low-end real estate.However, as long as the two major dilemmas for entrepreneurs and inflation continue to worsen, there will still be great pressure on high-end property prices to rise.Moreover, while international financial speculators were talking about China's real estate market, QFII significantly reduced their positions in real estate stocks in the first quarter, and the number of reductions ranked first among all industries. This change deserves our attention. In addition, a large number of state-owned enterprises have received a lot of credit funds, but under the circumstances that the two major difficulties have not been resolved, they dare not invest in industries, so a lot of bank credit funds entered the property market to purchase land at high prices, resulting in Land kings from all over the world appeared one after another.In other words, the record-breaking emergence of land kings is not due to the improvement of our economy, but is driven by state-owned enterprises using credit funds to buy land.To prove my point, I cite some data. The transaction volume of the real estate market from January to May in 2009 was 1.4 times that of the same period in 2008, surpassing the hottest year of 2007.We usually think that 2007 is the year of the real estate bubble, in fact, the figures from January to May of 2009 have exceeded that of 2007. Table 3-1 shows the top ten land kings ranked by floor price per square meter in the first half of 2009. Among them, except for the unclear background of Shenzhen Xinhai, the other nine land kings are all real estate companies with state-owned background.In the competition for the king of land in Beijing, Pan Shiyi of SOHO was immediately "sieged" by a number of state-owned real estate companies every time he raised a sign. According to media reports, this situation became more obvious after the price soared to 3.5 billion yuan.There is a phenomenon worthy of our attention, that is, every time Pan Shiyi's team raises a placard, they have to think over and over again, and these state-owned enterprises seem to raise their placards without thinking at all, which makes people feel difficult to understand.Pan Shiyi, who was defeated in the auction field, wrote in his blog: "The bubble in the Beijing land market has indeed appeared." Franshion Real Estate, which defeated Pan Shiyi in the Beijing land king competition and had the last laugh, is a subsidiary of the state-owned Sinochem Group. In 2009, it received a high credit line of 24.5 billion yuan, which is why it can be so rich.They managed to spend 4 billion yuan, and they still have 20.5 billion yuan in bank loans.I often joke that Sinochem Franshion is miserable, and how to spend the remaining 20.5 billion in bank credit is their biggest challenge at present. In the land grabbing war in 2009, it was not uncommon for real estate companies with state-owned backgrounds to have the last laugh.Below is a summary of the various media reports. 1. According to media reports, “Recalling the round of land grabbing in 2007, there were more Hong Kong capital and private enterprises participating, such as Hutchison, Wharf, Evergrande, Hopson, etc.” An industry insider lamented, “It’s only In more than a year, these land king contenders have disappeared, and large state-owned enterprises with stronger financial strength have made high-profile moves, and the speed of land king renewal is not inferior to that in 2007." 2. According to the relevant report of CICC, "state-owned enterprises account for the majority" is the biggest sign that this land king boom is different from that in 2007. In the future, more state-owned enterprises with credit and financing advantages will gradually increase their presence in the real estate industry market share. 3. Chen Baocun, deputy secretary-general of the National Real Estate Managers Alliance, said, "The most important reason why state-owned enterprises dare to buy land at sky-high prices is their strong financial strength. This year's large-scale increase in bank credit funds has made them even more powerful." 4. Wang Yingnan, deputy general manager of Beijing Yahao Real Estate Service Agency, said: "Developers and real estate listed companies with a state-owned enterprise background either have high credibility, or have extensive financing channels, and have deep pockets. They dare to take a chance in the land market. These big state-owned enterprises are The beneficiaries of the state's 4 trillion yuan of financial support are very well-off, which is unmatched by ordinary real estate companies. Optimistic expectations for the real estate market have led them to acquire land beyond the usual behavior. The phenomenon of "flour is more expensive than bread" may appear .” I think Pan Shiyi's views after the defeat deserve our attention. The following is a summary of Pan Shiyi's views on the new "land king": 1. In the context of the financial crisis, due to overcapacity, bank lending to state-owned enterprises can be invested in real estate. 2. The 11 companies participating in the bidding are all Chinese companies, and none of the foreign companies joined.It shows that they are not optimistic about this crazy land acquisition. 3. At present, the housing prices of projects around Guangqu Road in Beijing are between 14,000 yuan and 20,000 yuan per square meter, but the floor price of the land auctioned this time has reached 16,000 yuan per square meter, and the selling price should be 3 yuan per square meter. ten thousand yuan. Pan Shiyi's point of view and media reports support my point of view, that is, because the two dilemmas have not yet been resolved, the bank credit funds controlled by some state-owned enterprises have not been invested in the real economy but have flowed into the land scramble in large quantities. According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the total sales of automobiles in my country reached 2,678,800 in the first quarter of 2009, taking the top spot in global automobile sales in one fell swoop.Since December 200, auto sales have picked up for 4 consecutive months.While the global auto market continues to slump, the domestic auto market has shown a momentum of booming production and sales. The Shanghai Auto Show in April was extremely hot. The number of visitors per day reached 100,000. 1,500 companies from 25 countries and regions around the world participated in it, an increase of more than 105 companies from the previous session, surpassing Detroit and Geneva without any suspense. , Chicago, Seoul, New York and other famous auto shows.Why has the main battlefield of the global auto market shifted from the United States to China? What is the reason for the domestic auto market's turmoil?
It was only during the economic depression that parents would realize that they owed their children too much when they dreamed back at midnight. They used to be busy every day until 2 o'clock in the middle of the night before returning home, and the children were already asleep.Now home at 4pm, maybe even earlier.Think about it after you get home, is it time to take the children to the zoo at 8 o'clock in the morning on weekends?So you see, Beijing used to have no traffic jams on Saturdays and Sundays. It should be at 8 o’clock from Monday to Friday. Now it’s good. The traffic jams on the West Second Ring Road and West Third Ring Road started at 8 o’clock in the morning on weekends. Why?Everyone rushed to the zoo to take their children to see, stroll and learn.How to go then?I found that everyone is driving, otherwise there will be no traffic jams.Where did that car come from?I bought it, so the auto market has picked up. According to media reports, in July 2009, Dongfeng Shenlong Fukang, Elysee, and Dongfeng Peugeot 206 had an average sales drop of more than 30% after price cuts and new launches; Teana sales fell by more than 33%; Fox sales also dropped by 26%. a sharp decline.However, the sales of related competing models such as Lingyu, Camry, New POLO and Accent are on the rise.Among them, the biggest drop was BYD F3, whose sales fell by 50%.Industry insiders analyzed that F3 fell out of favor mainly because of the price cuts of Accent, Ville and other models and the suppression of new models such as Junjie. If the price of F3 does not make concessions, it is difficult to recover from the declining sales.
The recovery of the auto market is not simply because cars are going to the countryside. Of course, our peasant friends buy cars.But those parents who actually buy cars are those parents who feel that they owe their children a debt. They used to be too busy to spend time with their children. Now they hope to spend more time with their children on weekends. The direct reflection of this thinking is that the auto market has started to explode. .You see, the Shanghai Auto Show is like crazy, even the auto shows in Hunan and Hubei are like crazy.Cars are selling great, because of the recession, does that have anything to do with the recovery? This recovery is only due to the impact of funds, not a real recovery, so the instability of the auto market will appear. In July, the Shanghai auto market has obviously turned weak.According to media reports, although there were still a lot of people looking at cars in July, the number of orders placed decreased significantly. Customers who came to pick up cars in the store in July basically placed orders before June.In addition, according to statistics from the Passenger Car Association, a total of 270,000 new cars were sold in July, down nearly 8% from June. Other statistics show that car sales in July fell 5% from June.The follow-up development of the auto market deserves our attention.
The stock market is rising, the property market is hot, and the auto market is hot. What is behind these phenomena? Does it mean that the economy has completely recovered? I speak with data, and I offer a different point of view. Has the Chinese economy recovered rapidly?How should we think about the situation we face. If the whole world is in depression, but one of our markets is doing well, it is unreasonable and abnormal. The Chinese stock market was the first to pick up after four months ahead of the world; in the first half of 2009, the global property market fell into depression, but the Chinese property market rose sharply against the trend; in the first half of 2009, the US auto sales plummeted by 35%, while the Chinese market increased by 15% .Do these data really show that China's economy is leading the world in recovery?I want to tell readers that if we live differently from the whole world, I think we should be abnormal, not the whole world. What conclusions can we draw from the economic performance in the first half of this year?The conclusion is that my country's economy is facing three shocks.The first impact is that the investment and business environment faced by entrepreneurs is not as good as in 2006, and there is also a crisis of overcapacity brought about by the financial crisis; the second impact is the liquidity caused by bank loans as high as 7.37 trillion yuan in the first half of 2009 Excess; the third shock, 7.37 trillion bank credit and inflation expectations brought about by international inflation.That is to say, compared with 2006, the investment and operation environment and overcapacity problems of the manufacturing industry are worsening now, and there are more problems of excess liquidity and inflation psychological expectations. The first impact is the impact of manufacturing entrepreneurs on the deterioration of the investment and operating environment and the impact of overcapacity, so a large amount of money that should be invested in manufacturing is taken out and invested in the stock market. The second shock is that a large amount of bank credit funds enter the stock market.First, let’s talk about how the more than 7 trillion yuan was invested.More than half of it is used for infrastructure construction, bridge repairs and road paving, and the rest is for bill financing and short-term loans mainly for state-owned enterprises. The funds entering enterprises are about 2 trillion yuan.I pointed out at the beginning of 2009 that when companies, especially large ones, get more than 2 trillion short-term funds, and see that the investment and business environment is worse than in 2006, and there is serious overcapacity, they will do What?There may only be stocks, because they have no other choice. On July 24, 2009, the Accounting Division of the Ministry of Finance confirmed my view when they admitted that a large amount of bank credit had entered the stock market.Exactly how much money has entered the stock market?According to bank executives, more than 1 trillion yuan of funds have entered the stock market, but this is not the result of my own research, so I dare not say it is accurate. The third impact is the inflation expectations brought by the 7.37 trillion bank credits to the common people.What if inflation occurs?If you deposit your money in the bank, isn't that all "gross"?If you dare not deposit your money in the bank, what can you do?Since the first shock has not been resolved, and you dare not invest in the real economy, your choice may be stock trading.I would like to remind all readers that since June 2009, the international oil price has risen to more than 70 US dollars per barrel, and the resulting international inflation has begun to stir again, which will exert certain pressure on my country's future inflation, thereby stimulating More safe-haven funds entered the stock market.It is difficult to predict the future trend of international inflation. For example, oil prices fell back to $60 a barrel in July, but rose to more than $70 in August. Therefore, for the stock market, there are three funds entering the stock market-manufacturing funds, bank credit funds and safe-haven funds.But I would like to remind shareholders and friends to pay attention to the risks of the stock market in 2009.Credit funds entering the stock market are very sensitive to policy, so the risk of the stock market is greater than that of the bubble period in 2006.For example, the China Banking Regulatory Commission once said that it would investigate the problem of credit funds entering the market. As a result, the stock price plummeted a few days before and after April 24. Afterwards, the investigation was stopped and the stock market rose again. On July 29, it was rumored that the central bank might tighten credit. As I expected, a huge amount of funds fled, and the Shanghai Composite Index plummeted from 3,500 points to more than 3,200 points, a drop of 5%.In August, rumors of the central bank tightening credit continued to hit the stock market, and the stock index fell below 3,000 points in late August. In addition, the situation of China's stock market being manipulated by market makers never seems to improve. In May 2009, the market was only over 2,500 points, which seemed not to be high, but the small-cap stocks were dancing wildly, and some went up several times.In addition, not all individual stocks go up, but sectors go up in rounds. One sector goes up this week, that sector goes up next week, and another sector goes up the next week. It is obvious banker manipulation.This is very depressing for small and medium investors, what if they choose the wrong sector? I would like to remind all shareholders that the big rise of small-cap stocks and the round-up of the sector have shown years of traditional market maker manipulation. In addition, the credit funds entering the stock market are very sensitive to policies, so the stock market is very risky.Although small and medium-sized shareholders have the opportunity to make money during the bubble period, I suggested in April this year that small and medium-sized shareholders must fast in and fast out, and don't love to fight.Unexpectedly, in July, the 28th phenomenon in the stock market appeared again. The market was basically pulled up by large-cap stocks after 2,500 points, and it was pulled up to around 3,500 points at the end of July. During this period, small-cap stocks could not rise. On July 29, it was rumored that the central bank might tighten credit, and a large number of funds fled. The stock index plummeted to more than 3,200 points, and then continued to fall below 3,000 points.But as long as the central bank continues to loosen credit, the excess liquidity caused by bank credit expansion will continue to drive up the stock market. There are many other problems faced by my country's stock market, and I will just cite a few ready-made examples.As the stock market rises higher and higher, the inevitable pressure of profit-taking, large and small, and large and small limits comes. In the second half of 2009, about 600 billion restricted shares were lifted.In addition, the bad performance of listed companies will be disclosed again.According to the report of "Shanghai Securities News" on July 1, in the first half of 2009, more than 1,600 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen had 628 performance forecasts for the first half of the year. Among them, the proportion of "worries" exceeded 60%. Cooperating with credit capital risk and manipulation will increase the risk of the stock market. Due to the two major difficulties faced by entrepreneurs - the deterioration of the investment and business environment and the unresolved overcapacity, a large amount of manufacturing capital has flowed into high-end real estate in the real estate market.Take Dongguan, which suffered the most economically, as an example. In the first quarter of 2009, there was a strange phenomenon of inversion of industrial output value and real estate investment, which is similar to the performance of other cities in the Pearl River Delta.The city's total industrial output value plummeted by 13.5%, while the real estate industry was booming all the way in the same period: real estate development investment increased by 29.6% in the first quarter, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 12.1%, and the sales amount increased by 22.2%. Since 2009, the transaction volume of the real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou and other major cities has increased significantly. In Shanghai, more than 50% of the sales prices of real estate have been raised.According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide increased by 8.2% year-on-year, and the sales volume of commercial housing was 505.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%.In Beijing, 15,034 sets of commercial housing were sold, covering an area of 1,685,200 square meters, an increase of 79.53% from the previous month.However, during the Boao Forum for Asia in 2009, Pan Shiyi, a well-known real estate developer, publicly stated that the rapid increase in transactions in the national real estate market in the first quarter lacked the support of economic fundamentals, and real estate companies need to be quite cautious about future investment.In an atmosphere of recovery across the country, what is the reason for real estate developers to speak cautiously?
In addition, according to media reports, the high-end real estate projects in Laoxiguan, Guangzhou were unexpectedly favored by many private entrepreneurs after the Spring Festival in 2009.The person in charge of the project said: "A house is at least 2 million yuan. Among the buyers, there are very few first-time home buyers. Most of them are private business owners or self-employed. There are hundreds of millions in their hands who can't find a way out, so they choose to invest in houses. superior." Readers, please think about it again. Our common people are very smart. Everyone has seen 7.37 trillion credit funds poured into the market in the first half of 2009. What is your first reaction?What are you most worried about?Your first instinct is to create expectations about future inflation. You see, money is afraid to deposit in the bank for fear of inflation.So do you dare to invest in industry?You dare not invest in industry, because the investment and business environment in 2009 was even worse than in 2006, coupled with the overcapacity caused by the financial tsunami.Apart from speculating in stocks, you seem to have only one option, which is to buy a house.What does buying a house have to do with the economic recovery?It doesn't matter.In fact, the deteriorating investment and business environment and overcapacity led to the entry of manufacturing funds into high-end real estate. In addition, bank credit funds and inflation expectations caused by international inflation led to a large number of safe-haven funds escaping from inflation into the real estate market. Mainly high-end real estate. The following simple data can explain the situation of safe-haven funds caused by inflation entering the property market. 1. Once the leader of the "Wenzhou real estate speculators group" in Beijing, the current vice president of the Beijing Wenzhou Chamber of Commerce said to a reporter from the "China Times": "The bubbles in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are becoming more and more serious, which is different from previous years. In the same way, the return on investment there is too low and the risk is too high.” He also pointed out that in a Wenzhou investor circle he is familiar with, “Many people made their fortunes from real estate investment in the past few years. The pressure of inflation is increasing, the cash in hand cannot be kept in the bank, and we don’t want to toss in the first-tier cities where bubbles are piling up, so everyone pools funds and starts real estate development in second- and third-tier cities.” 2. Xue Jianxiong, an analyst at E-House China, pointed out to the media: "Behind many hot-selling high-end real estate in the Yangtze River Delta region, there will be a large number of business owners in Wenzhou and Ningbo. They are afraid of possible inflation in the future, so they invest a lot of idle funds in the property market.” 3. Li Ka-shing pointed out in May 2009: "Inflation will come sooner or later. In the current low interest rate environment, buying a property is a good investment. I believe it will definitely make money if you put it in three or four years." In order to stimulate the housing market, the government has also introduced many short-term favorable measures, including "second housing" loans and preferential tax policies.The promulgation of these favorable measures has played an effective catalytic role, and people's willingness to buy houses has become stronger, which has further contributed to the phenomenon of recovery, and basically the recovery is mainly high-end real estate. High-end real estate recovery data 1. In April 2009, the sales of villas in Shenzhen increased by 654.55% compared with the same period last year, while the growth rates from January to March were 16.9%, 50.82% and 36.11% respectively; Compared with the same period last year, they increased by 42.8% and 48.4% respectively; in Shanghai, the sales-to-supply ratio of villas in April reached 1.59:1.It's not just villas that are selling well, and it's not limited to the above-mentioned first-tier cities.High-end residences in second- and third-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta region, such as Wenzhou, Hangzhou, and Ningbo, are also selling well. 2. According to data from E-House China, "The sales volume of high-end apartments in Shanghai has also surged recently, among which the transaction volume of mid-to-high-end apartments with a unit price of more than 20,000 yuan per square meter has rebounded sharply. In the first 20 days of May, the transaction area of the above-mentioned high-end apartments It reached 179,300 square meters, nearly three times the total transaction volume in February." 3. According to the report of "China News Weekly", "People in the industry said that there is indeed a demand for value preservation and appreciation to buy houses. For example, high-end projects such as Star River and Ocean Wanhe City are selling very well." In addition, "Beijing Youshan The number of calls and visits to the Meidi project and the Grasse Town project has increased exponentially, and there are dozens of groups of customers who inspect the house every weekend, which basically exceeds the situation in 2007 when the real estate market was the hottest.” 4. According to the statistical data of CBN: in May 2009, the transaction volume of residential properties with a unit price of more than 40,000 yuan in Shanghai was 3.4 times that of April.Among them, after the average price of Jiayuan in the third phase of Cuihu Tiandi dropped to 60,000 yuan per square meter, 62 units were sold in late May. 5. According to the investigation of the high-end properties of its branches by the Hefu Real Estate Market Research Center, the top luxury housing market performed well in the first half of May, and the main contribution came from villa products, especially independent villas. "The transaction volume of first-hand detached villas increased by 40% in May." 6. According to media reports, the opening price of Star River in Shanghai skyrocketed from 30,000 yuan/square meter at the beginning of 2009 to more than 50,000 yuan/square meter in August.
However, this recovery is not due to the rigid demand for housing generated by the people's wealth, but because manufacturing funds and safe-haven funds have entered the property market, mainly high-end real estate, which has stimulated low-end real estate.Most homebuyers still have lingering fears, so some areas saw a decline in transaction volume in July.According to the report of China Index Research Institute, among the 30 cities it tracks and monitors, half of the urban residential transaction area declined in July. Among them, cities in South China and East China showed the most obvious performance. For example, Xiamen in South China fell by more than 20%, Dongguan by more than 6%; Hangzhou in East China fell by more than 30%, Wenzhou by more than 20%, and Ningbo by more than 10%.It seems that for the high-end real estate in big cities, the housing prices are still very strong, but the pressure of softening appears in the middle and low-end real estate.However, as long as the two major dilemmas for entrepreneurs and inflation continue to worsen, there will still be great pressure on high-end property prices to rise.Moreover, while international financial speculators were talking about China's real estate market, QFII significantly reduced their positions in real estate stocks in the first quarter, and the number of reductions ranked first among all industries. This change deserves our attention. In addition, a large number of state-owned enterprises have received a lot of credit funds, but under the circumstances that the two major difficulties have not been resolved, they dare not invest in industries, so a lot of bank credit funds entered the property market to purchase land at high prices, resulting in Land kings from all over the world appeared one after another.In other words, the record-breaking emergence of land kings is not due to the improvement of our economy, but is driven by state-owned enterprises using credit funds to buy land.To prove my point, I cite some data. The transaction volume of the real estate market from January to May in 2009 was 1.4 times that of the same period in 2008, surpassing the hottest year of 2007.We usually think that 2007 is the year of the real estate bubble, in fact, the figures from January to May of 2009 have exceeded that of 2007. Table 3-1 shows the top ten land kings ranked by floor price per square meter in the first half of 2009. Among them, except for the unclear background of Shenzhen Xinhai, the other nine land kings are all real estate companies with state-owned background.In the competition for the king of land in Beijing, Pan Shiyi of SOHO was immediately "sieged" by a number of state-owned real estate companies every time he raised a sign. According to media reports, this situation became more obvious after the price soared to 3.5 billion yuan.There is a phenomenon worthy of our attention, that is, every time Pan Shiyi's team raises a placard, they have to think over and over again, and these state-owned enterprises seem to raise their placards without thinking at all, which makes people feel difficult to understand.Pan Shiyi, who was defeated in the auction field, wrote in his blog: "The bubble in the Beijing land market has indeed appeared." Franshion Real Estate, which defeated Pan Shiyi in the Beijing land king competition and had the last laugh, is a subsidiary of the state-owned Sinochem Group. In 2009, it received a high credit line of 24.5 billion yuan, which is why it can be so rich.They managed to spend 4 billion yuan, and they still have 20.5 billion yuan in bank loans.I often joke that Sinochem Franshion is miserable, and how to spend the remaining 20.5 billion in bank credit is their biggest challenge at present. In the land grabbing war in 2009, it was not uncommon for real estate companies with state-owned backgrounds to have the last laugh.Below is a summary of the various media reports. 1. According to media reports, “Recalling the round of land grabbing in 2007, there were more Hong Kong capital and private enterprises participating, such as Hutchison, Wharf, Evergrande, Hopson, etc.” An industry insider lamented, “It’s only In more than a year, these land king contenders have disappeared, and large state-owned enterprises with stronger financial strength have made high-profile moves, and the speed of land king renewal is not inferior to that in 2007." 2. According to the relevant report of CICC, "state-owned enterprises account for the majority" is the biggest sign that this land king boom is different from that in 2007. In the future, more state-owned enterprises with credit and financing advantages will gradually increase their presence in the real estate industry market share. 3. Chen Baocun, deputy secretary-general of the National Real Estate Managers Alliance, said, "The most important reason why state-owned enterprises dare to buy land at sky-high prices is their strong financial strength. This year's large-scale increase in bank credit funds has made them even more powerful." 4. Wang Yingnan, deputy general manager of Beijing Yahao Real Estate Service Agency, said: "Developers and real estate listed companies with a state-owned enterprise background either have high credibility, or have extensive financing channels, and have deep pockets. They dare to take a chance in the land market. These big state-owned enterprises are The beneficiaries of the state's 4 trillion yuan of financial support are very well-off, which is unmatched by ordinary real estate companies. Optimistic expectations for the real estate market have led them to acquire land beyond the usual behavior. The phenomenon of "flour is more expensive than bread" may appear .” I think Pan Shiyi's views after the defeat deserve our attention. The following is a summary of Pan Shiyi's views on the new "land king": 1. In the context of the financial crisis, due to overcapacity, bank lending to state-owned enterprises can be invested in real estate. 2. The 11 companies participating in the bidding are all Chinese companies, and none of the foreign companies joined.It shows that they are not optimistic about this crazy land acquisition. 3. At present, the housing prices of projects around Guangqu Road in Beijing are between 14,000 yuan and 20,000 yuan per square meter, but the floor price of the land auctioned this time has reached 16,000 yuan per square meter, and the selling price should be 3 yuan per square meter. ten thousand yuan. Pan Shiyi's point of view and media reports support my point of view, that is, because the two dilemmas have not yet been resolved, the bank credit funds controlled by some state-owned enterprises have not been invested in the real economy but have flowed into the land scramble in large quantities. According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the total sales of automobiles in my country reached 2,678,800 in the first quarter of 2009, taking the top spot in global automobile sales in one fell swoop.Since December 200, auto sales have picked up for 4 consecutive months.While the global auto market continues to slump, the domestic auto market has shown a momentum of booming production and sales. The Shanghai Auto Show in April was extremely hot. The number of visitors per day reached 100,000. 1,500 companies from 25 countries and regions around the world participated in it, an increase of more than 105 companies from the previous session, surpassing Detroit and Geneva without any suspense. , Chicago, Seoul, New York and other famous auto shows.Why has the main battlefield of the global auto market shifted from the United States to China? What is the reason for the domestic auto market's turmoil?
It was only during the economic depression that parents would realize that they owed their children too much when they dreamed back at midnight. They used to be busy every day until 2 o'clock in the middle of the night before returning home, and the children were already asleep.Now home at 4pm, maybe even earlier.Think about it after you get home, is it time to take the children to the zoo at 8 o'clock in the morning on weekends?So you see, Beijing used to have no traffic jams on Saturdays and Sundays. It should be at 8 o’clock from Monday to Friday. Now it’s good. The traffic jams on the West Second Ring Road and West Third Ring Road started at 8 o’clock in the morning on weekends. Why?Everyone rushed to the zoo to take their children to see, stroll and learn.How to go then?I found that everyone is driving, otherwise there will be no traffic jams.Where did that car come from?I bought it, so the auto market has picked up. According to media reports, in July 2009, Dongfeng Shenlong Fukang, Elysee, and Dongfeng Peugeot 206 had an average sales drop of more than 30% after price cuts and new launches; Teana sales fell by more than 33%; Fox sales also dropped by 26%. a sharp decline.However, the sales of related competing models such as Lingyu, Camry, New POLO and Accent are on the rise.Among them, the biggest drop was BYD F3, whose sales fell by 50%.Industry insiders analyzed that F3 fell out of favor mainly because of the price cuts of Accent, Ville and other models and the suppression of new models such as Junjie. If the price of F3 does not make concessions, it is difficult to recover from the declining sales.
The recovery of the auto market is not simply because cars are going to the countryside. Of course, our peasant friends buy cars.But those parents who actually buy cars are those parents who feel that they owe their children a debt. They used to be too busy to spend time with their children. Now they hope to spend more time with their children on weekends. The direct reflection of this thinking is that the auto market has started to explode. .You see, the Shanghai Auto Show is like crazy, even the auto shows in Hunan and Hubei are like crazy.Cars are selling great, because of the recession, does that have anything to do with the recovery? This recovery is only due to the impact of funds, not a real recovery, so the instability of the auto market will appear. In July, the Shanghai auto market has obviously turned weak.According to media reports, although there were still a lot of people looking at cars in July, the number of orders placed decreased significantly. Customers who came to pick up cars in the store in July basically placed orders before June.In addition, according to statistics from the Passenger Car Association, a total of 270,000 new cars were sold in July, down nearly 8% from June. Other statistics show that car sales in July fell 5% from June.The follow-up development of the auto market deserves our attention.