Chapter 9 Chapter 08 New Energy Wars: For Whom Our New Energy Economy Blooms
The fourth wave of technology is coming.
Recently in China, 18 provinces in our country proposed to build new energy bases.What happened to the sunrise industry and industry profiteering?Selling polysilicon is the most profitable now.
The real absurdity, the fate of the little people reflects the embarrassment of the industry.But this buddy is very interesting. If you sell electricity to the State Grid, you should be able to get some money back, right? Subsidize his electricity bill; but he forgot one thing, China’s electricity meters can only add up.
Early warning of China's new energy, production capacity problems, what is the crux?
You have invested trillions of dollars in the development of wind power and the development of the photovoltaic industry, the end of which is the same as that of our TVs.
Recently I did a research to explore the development of new energy in China.Recently, 18 provinces in China have put forward plans to build new energy bases, and more than 100 cities have made solar and wind energy their pillar industries.From this point of view, China will enter a new field after the United States, called new energy, and stimulate China's economy through investment in new energy.
Let me tell readers clearly that this plan, which sounds great, will fail completely in the end.If it was before, I would be very excited when I talked about it here, and then explain why I failed one by one.But I won’t be angry now, because I’ve watched a lot and I’m mature. When I encounter this kind of thing again, my whole mentality has changed, and I will look at this complicated issue with a relaxed mind.Let's take a look at how this new energy comes from.
At present, the whole world is not only facing the challenge of the financial crisis, but also ushered in the fourth wave of technology in the crisis.Following the application of electronics and information technology, a new energy revolution has quietly kicked off.New energy sources include solar energy, wind energy and biomass energy, the first two of which have entered the practical stage.my country has long paid attention to the development of new energy sources. Taking wind energy as an example, in 2003 my country conducted the first wind power concession bidding. In February 2005, President Hu Jintao issued the "Renewable Energy Law of the People's Republic of China". Since then, the wind power industry has doubled its new installed capacity for four consecutive years.According to the annual data of the Global Wind Energy Council, with the realization of wind power installed capacity of 12.21 million kilowatts in 2008, China has become the largest wind power country in Asia and the fourth in the world.Many people believe that now is the "golden age" of wind power development in China.However, China's new energy industry has also encountered some problems in the development process, which has been questioned by some people.So, what happened to China's new energy industry?Where are the crux of these problems?
In order to develop new energy in China, 18 provinces and more than 100 cities regard solar energy and wind energy as the pillar industries of the city, which is also called the top project.It sounds good, because the photovoltaic industry has a large investment, a long industrial chain, and high output value.Generally speaking, the last 1,000-ton polysilicon project—the so-called polysilicon is the raw material for making solar glass panels—will attract local investment of at least 1 billion yuan, and after it is put into production, it can form an annual output value of 600 million to 800 million yuan. It can also provide a large number of jobs, which is very attractive to local governments.In addition, it is also a huge profit industry. Each kilogram of polysilicon can be sold for 300 US dollars, while the cost is only 50 US dollars, which is almost five times the profit.I joked, what industry is the most profitable in China?In the past, it was said that it was drug trafficking, and selling drugs was the most profitable, but now it seems that selling polysilicon is the most profitable.Not much else to say, just this profit has touched people all over China, leaders of various provinces and cities have made up their minds, and the whole of China has begun to launch large-scale horses, because it not only stimulates production capacity and employment, but is also a huge profit industry. Polysilicon profits are not entirely a joke.Since 2004, due to the influence of Spain, Germany and other European countries supporting photovoltaic power generation policies, the newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity in Europe has shown a rapid growth trend.The substantial increase in installed capacity has promoted the rapid expansion of demand for photoelectric conversion materials, that is, polysilicon. Due to insufficient production capacity, the spot price of polysilicon has climbed from US$35 per kilogram in 2005 to US$480 per kilogram in 2008.The huge profits brought about by the sharp rise in prices are the reason why a large number of investors have entered the polysilicon manufacturing industry.So, when a large number of Chinese manufacturing companies entered the field of polysilicon manufacturing, what happened? So what is the result of years of blind development? In 2001, only two enterprises in China, Emei Semiconductor Factory and Luoyang Monocrystalline Silicon Factory, produced polysilicon, with an annual output of only 80 tons.By the end of June 2009, 19 polysilicon projects in my country had been put into production, with a production capacity of 30,000 tons per year. In 2008, the total demand for polysilicon in my country was only 17,000 tons, and more than ten companies were under construction. To expand the polysilicon project, the planned total production capacity will exceed 100,000 tons by 2011. What is the concept of 100,000 tons?More than twice the global demand. This kind of production has no national planning at all. The economic development of the United States is all the will of the country. The development of new energy is also the country's intervention. Careful planning will definitely not cause excess production capacity. In this sense, the United States is more like a society. socialist country.To put it bluntly, the United States is a planned economy, while ours is a laissez-faire economy. The provinces, cities and local governments do what they like, which is why they cause a lot of waste.Think about it, how much does it cost to invest in a project of polysilicon, what is the bad thing to do with this money?You are better off opening a restaurant than this.After investing in polysilicon, after construction is completed, there will be 20 to 30 factories in China, and the production capacity is more than twice the world's demand, which will cause huge waste of excess capacity.This precious resource could have been used in a better industry, allowing our private enterprises to make money, and then store wealth for the people. As a result, all local governments were wasting it in order to launch new energy projects.And you want to invest in these projects, who do you buy technology from?You have to buy technology from Europe and the United States, which will cause a large amount of low-carbon dollars to flow back to Europe and the United States. According to our statistics, 80 to 90% of our companies investing in polysilicon projects do not have technology. Many real estate bosses are also engaged in polysilicon. Can you believe it?Don't say readers can't believe it, I find it incredible.A real estate developer who doesn't understand anything, after making a little money, he feels like he is the greatest person. He dares to do anything, even to make polysilicon. I think he may not even know what the word polysilicon is. It started production without knowing the meaning. Where is polysilicon extracted from?It is extracted from quartz sand, but I regret to tell readers that more than 90% of polysilicon factories in China do not have this technology, so raw materials must be imported from abroad.We have already begun to flow the so-called low-carbon dollars back to the United States or Europe. What if we don't have this technology?In addition to importing raw materials, we even have to import silicon waste, which is absolutely highly polluting, and the pollution in the process of producing polysilicon is very serious, which will produce highly toxic silicon tetrachloride that will harm future generations.After you finish the production, you leave the pollution in China, and sell the finished solar glass panels to the United States, Japan, and Europe. They start to use them, use solar energy to generate electricity, and they get green environmental protection. What we get is the whole country. silicon tetrachloride pollution. In late August 2009, the executive meeting of the State Council reviewed and approved the "Several Opinions on Restraining Overcapacity in Some Industries and Repeated Construction to Guide the Healthy Development of Industries", among which polysilicon and wind power were clearly identified as the industries to be suppressed overcapacity.However, as pointed out by relevant experts, the country's introduction of industrial guidance policies is not to curb the development of new energy. On the contrary, new energy represented by wind energy and solar energy still has huge room for development in China, but there is excess capacity in the field of new energy. The problem of repeated construction and repeated construction should arouse the vigilance of the industry, especially in the division of labor in the industrial chain, and we cannot go on the road of introduction-backward-re-introduction-re-backward. Then, do some of our enterprises have such an understanding? What problems exist in the actual implementation process?
If we don't invest in this so-called new energy, it would be great to cut taxes for ordinary people and enterprises with trillions of funds.If our private enterprises live tax-free for one year, do you know how much private enterprise investment can be stimulated based on this?But we all waste a lot of it. This kind of photovoltaic power generation made of polysilicon, that is, solar power generation, is to install solar panels on the roof, and this panel is made of polysilicon.This technology has been implemented in Japan for 30 years. According to my information, about 1/10 of Japan's power generation equipment uses solar energy.Germany originally planned to realize 100,000 sets of photovoltaic roof systems by the end of 2003. The German government provided a budget of 460 million euros for this purpose, and Spain also provided subsidies for solar energy projects. Japan, Germany, Spain and other countries are vigorously promoting this kind of rooftop solar energy equipment, what about us in China?There is only one person in China who is doing it. He is Zhao Chunjiang, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Electric Power Institute. He spent more than 200,000 yuan to buy the equipment from Mitsubishi, Japan, and built 22 blocks, about 21 square meters. Photovoltaic roof, self-generated electricity.This is the only solar power generation equipment in the country. He said that he generates electricity by himself and has generated more than 4,000 kWh. In addition to being self-sufficient, it can also be connected to the national grid and input 1,300 kWh of electricity to the national grid.But this matter is very interesting. If you sell electricity to the State Grid, you should be able to get some money back, right?But he forgot one thing, China's electricity meter can only do addition, not subtraction.You use 100 degrees of electricity, and then use another 100 degrees of electricity to become 200 degrees, and then use 100 degrees to become 300 degrees, and you will pay as many degrees as you use.But the electricity meter does not have a subtraction function. If you use 5,000 kilowatt-hours and pay 5,000 kilowatt-hours, and then you sell 3,000 kilowatt-hours to the State Grid, you should subtract 3,000 kilowatt-hours and only pay 2,000 kilowatt-hours, right?The result is not like this, because our electric meter can't do subtraction, so it becomes 5000 plus 3000, which becomes 8000 kWh, and we have to pay an extra 3000 kWh for electricity.Don't say that our country does not have incentive policies, and even our electric meters do not meet the needs of the photovoltaic industry. Moreover, the cost of solar power generation is 11 to 18 times that of coal power generation, 7 to 12 times that of biogas power generation, and 6 to 10 times that of wind power generation.Why do Germany, Japan, Spain and other countries have financial subsidies?It is because solar power is too expensive.We are a very poor developing country and it is impossible to spend this kind of money. We Chinese don't really like to study numbers. For example, an ancient Chinese book says, "How many people died in a severe drought?" How many people died?have no idea.Our Chinese culture is a culture that doesn't like numbers, so when our provincial and municipal leaders at all levels promote the photovoltaic industry, they don't look at the data.Among the world's output value, energy projects account for only 10%, and new energy sources account for only 10%.That is to say, among the world's output value, the proportion of new energy is only 1%.Today we have 18 provinces and hundreds of cities developing solar energy. It is so crazy that we want to use 1% of the output value to stimulate the Chinese economy.I don't know what to say, just one sentence, either I am a fool, or I haven't read the data.It never occurred to me that this industry cannot drive the Chinese economy, but China is doing this like crazy now. This kind of "Great Leap Forward" thinking is really scary. In fact, not only this, but also wind power.Readers will see wind power generation equipment like Dutch windmills when they go to the seaside or to Inner Mongolia. We are also frantically working on this thing recently.I have a piece of information here. Local governments are willing to develop wind power. A county-level city often plans to develop wind power with 100,000 mu or 200,000 mu of land. As for whether the local area is suitable for construction, how to build it, whether it can be built, and power generation There is no plan for where to send it to and how to connect to the grid.Many wind power projects neither consider technology nor market, let alone supporting equipment, which is very blind. Since 2004, China's wind power has embarked on a crazy "expansion road". From 6 companies in 2004 to more than 70 now, the number of companies has increased by more than 10 times. There are only 10 manufacturers, and we already have seventy or eighty in China. In 2007, Goldwind, the largest wind turbine manufacturer in China, had a gross profit margin of about 30%, but now it has dropped to 20%. In May 2009, the price of wind turbines also fell to 5,400 yuan per kilowatt, a drop of nearly 16%. Many foreign wind power factories see that so many real estate developers in China are starting to do this industry, so they sell them equipment that is not up to standard or outdated technology at high prices, because they don't understand it at all.So we bought a lot of foreign garbage, and the failure rate of our wind power machinery is as high as 20%. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission said so. The National Development and Reform Commission is quite sober, saying that we will have three or five wind power companies in the future.But now we have more than 70 companies doing it, and many places are building wind power bases.Actually, I was thinking, will they use the planned 100,000 mu and 200,000 mu of land to build villas?Building a villa under the wind power equipment is still a selling point. The advertisement can say, let's enjoy the windmills in the Netherlands.Many of us have never seen what a Dutch windmill looks like, and think that wind power is a windmill, which is a good selling point. What's more interesting is that in addition to buying other people's obsolete equipment, most wind power companies in China buy other people's drawings. Now there should be 70 out of 70 or 80 companies that buy drawings.Not only does it cost money to buy drawings, but there is also a contract, and how much money will be paid to the other party for each wind turbine produced.Moreover, this industry is not allowed to be exported, and you cannot change the technology in it casually.Of course, foreigners don’t have to worry, even if they allow us to change, we don’t know how to change it. This is the level of our wind power technology, and most of them are laymen working in this industry. In view of the problems existing in the field of domestic new energy development, the National Development and Reform Commission recently updated the "Catalog of Encouraged Imported Technologies and Products". Deleted from the Catalog.Relevant experts believe that it is the government's intention to control the production capacity of some overheated new energy sources and enhance the independent innovation capabilities of enterprises.From the perspective of the general environment, although as a developing country, China has not undertaken the obligation of carbon emission reduction in the "Kyoto Protocol", but in the future, China will face increasing pressure to reduce emissions. During the negotiation of the Copenhagen Agreement, which expired in 2012, European and American countries have asked emerging countries like China to undertake the responsibility of reducing carbon emissions.The development of new energy is not only a bargaining chip in political games, but also a century-old plan for the sustainable survival of the Chinese people.
If we continue to promote the wind power industry, do you know what the result will be?I believe that this serious overcapacity will inevitably lead to vicious competition, and it will be like our TV industry in China, where the last TV can only earn 5 yuan.This is because there is a lack of national planning, and everyone thinks wind power is too simple.You can see that many tall buildings and wind turbines have been built in Inner Mongolia, and they look good. Let me ask you, when the wind comes, it can generate electricity. What if the wind stops?Then we must rely on the original thermal power generation to make up for the deficiency of wind power generation.So who owns the conversion technology from wind power to thermal power?It is still in the United States and Europe, and we do not control this important core technology.When we build a wind power plant, there may be a thermal power plant next to it. Is it necessary to be so troublesome?You might as well engage in thermal power generation.Moreover, a certain copper element used in the manufacture of wind turbines, like polysilicon, is highly polluting, and once this pollution enters the land, it will harm our future generations and will never subside. On the surface, wind power and photovoltaics seem to be good concepts.In fact, what will be the result in the end?When we develop this industry in China, we not only start to return low-carbon dollars to Europe and the United States, so that European and American equipment manufacturers can make money, but what is even worse is that our green product exports protect the environment abroad, and all black pollution remains in the country. To the detriment of readers and our future generations.Moreover, among the trillions of dollars of investment, I believe that 80 to 90% of it is in vain, and with so much land enclosed, I also believe that most of it may be used to build villas. This is the essence of our new energy future. In the world energy field, solar power technology still plays a minor role. In 2007, compared with coal-fired power generation capacity of more than 1000 gigawatts, the capacity of all solar power generation installations in the world was only 6.6 gigawatts; in the United States, solar cells provided less than 0.05% of the total electricity supply.The biggest hurdle is that photovoltaic cells are not yet cheap enough to compete on a large scale. Traditional crystalline silicon solar cells have dominated the market for the past 30 years and still controlled 93% of the market in 2007.Producers of conventional crystalline silicon solar cells believe they can reach that price with the help of cheap manufacturers around the world. In 2007, China became the world's third-largest maker of solar cells after Japan and Germany, and raised billions through a public stock offering to further expand production capacity, creating some new billionaires in the process .The No. 1 company in this field, Wuxi Suntech, has a market value of US$5.5 billion, employs 3,500 people, and exports 90% of its products to Germany. Although this global expansion has resulted in a shortage of crystalline silicon, a more rapid expansion will certainly require the next generation of photovoltaic cell technologies to be developed in the lab and ready for the commercial market as soon as possible. Crystalline silicon has many limitations.This limitation has led most makers of next-generation solar cells to abandon silicon in favor of other semiconductor materials, usually mixtures of several materials: by mixing or layering elements with different bandgaps (critical energies), wider Range of light waves, so that the incident solar energy loss is less.Many manufacturers have also abandoned chips in favor of "thin films", replacing expensive, heavy, and difficult-to-use mass-produced modules with cheap, fast, roll-to-roll manufacturing of a large number of convenient and practical flexible materials .Others are developing solar concentrators, which combine ultra-efficient micro-batteries with low-cost lenses.Like a magnifying glass that scorches helpless mother ants, these devices can amplify thin sunlight hundreds of times. This article is excerpted from "Decisive Battle for New Energy: An Industrial Revolution Affecting the Rise and Fall of Nations" by Fred Krupp and Miriam Horn
In order to develop new energy in China, 18 provinces and more than 100 cities regard solar energy and wind energy as the pillar industries of the city, which is also called the top project.It sounds good, because the photovoltaic industry has a large investment, a long industrial chain, and high output value.Generally speaking, the last 1,000-ton polysilicon project—the so-called polysilicon is the raw material for making solar glass panels—will attract local investment of at least 1 billion yuan, and after it is put into production, it can form an annual output value of 600 million to 800 million yuan. It can also provide a large number of jobs, which is very attractive to local governments.In addition, it is also a huge profit industry. Each kilogram of polysilicon can be sold for 300 US dollars, while the cost is only 50 US dollars, which is almost five times the profit.I joked, what industry is the most profitable in China?In the past, it was said that it was drug trafficking, and selling drugs was the most profitable, but now it seems that selling polysilicon is the most profitable.Not much else to say, just this profit has touched people all over China, leaders of various provinces and cities have made up their minds, and the whole of China has begun to launch large-scale horses, because it not only stimulates production capacity and employment, but is also a huge profit industry. Polysilicon profits are not entirely a joke.Since 2004, due to the influence of Spain, Germany and other European countries supporting photovoltaic power generation policies, the newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity in Europe has shown a rapid growth trend.The substantial increase in installed capacity has promoted the rapid expansion of demand for photoelectric conversion materials, that is, polysilicon. Due to insufficient production capacity, the spot price of polysilicon has climbed from US$35 per kilogram in 2005 to US$480 per kilogram in 2008.The huge profits brought about by the sharp rise in prices are the reason why a large number of investors have entered the polysilicon manufacturing industry.So, when a large number of Chinese manufacturing companies entered the field of polysilicon manufacturing, what happened? So what is the result of years of blind development? In 2001, only two enterprises in China, Emei Semiconductor Factory and Luoyang Monocrystalline Silicon Factory, produced polysilicon, with an annual output of only 80 tons.By the end of June 2009, 19 polysilicon projects in my country had been put into production, with a production capacity of 30,000 tons per year. In 2008, the total demand for polysilicon in my country was only 17,000 tons, and more than ten companies were under construction. To expand the polysilicon project, the planned total production capacity will exceed 100,000 tons by 2011. What is the concept of 100,000 tons?More than twice the global demand. This kind of production has no national planning at all. The economic development of the United States is all the will of the country. The development of new energy is also the country's intervention. Careful planning will definitely not cause excess production capacity. In this sense, the United States is more like a society. socialist country.To put it bluntly, the United States is a planned economy, while ours is a laissez-faire economy. The provinces, cities and local governments do what they like, which is why they cause a lot of waste.Think about it, how much does it cost to invest in a project of polysilicon, what is the bad thing to do with this money?You are better off opening a restaurant than this.After investing in polysilicon, after construction is completed, there will be 20 to 30 factories in China, and the production capacity is more than twice the world's demand, which will cause huge waste of excess capacity.This precious resource could have been used in a better industry, allowing our private enterprises to make money, and then store wealth for the people. As a result, all local governments were wasting it in order to launch new energy projects.And you want to invest in these projects, who do you buy technology from?You have to buy technology from Europe and the United States, which will cause a large amount of low-carbon dollars to flow back to Europe and the United States. According to our statistics, 80 to 90% of our companies investing in polysilicon projects do not have technology. Many real estate bosses are also engaged in polysilicon. Can you believe it?Don't say readers can't believe it, I find it incredible.A real estate developer who doesn't understand anything, after making a little money, he feels like he is the greatest person. He dares to do anything, even to make polysilicon. I think he may not even know what the word polysilicon is. It started production without knowing the meaning. Where is polysilicon extracted from?It is extracted from quartz sand, but I regret to tell readers that more than 90% of polysilicon factories in China do not have this technology, so raw materials must be imported from abroad.We have already begun to flow the so-called low-carbon dollars back to the United States or Europe. What if we don't have this technology?In addition to importing raw materials, we even have to import silicon waste, which is absolutely highly polluting, and the pollution in the process of producing polysilicon is very serious, which will produce highly toxic silicon tetrachloride that will harm future generations.After you finish the production, you leave the pollution in China, and sell the finished solar glass panels to the United States, Japan, and Europe. They start to use them, use solar energy to generate electricity, and they get green environmental protection. What we get is the whole country. silicon tetrachloride pollution. In late August 2009, the executive meeting of the State Council reviewed and approved the "Several Opinions on Restraining Overcapacity in Some Industries and Repeated Construction to Guide the Healthy Development of Industries", among which polysilicon and wind power were clearly identified as the industries to be suppressed overcapacity.However, as pointed out by relevant experts, the country's introduction of industrial guidance policies is not to curb the development of new energy. On the contrary, new energy represented by wind energy and solar energy still has huge room for development in China, but there is excess capacity in the field of new energy. The problem of repeated construction and repeated construction should arouse the vigilance of the industry, especially in the division of labor in the industrial chain, and we cannot go on the road of introduction-backward-re-introduction-re-backward. Then, do some of our enterprises have such an understanding? What problems exist in the actual implementation process?
If we don't invest in this so-called new energy, it would be great to cut taxes for ordinary people and enterprises with trillions of funds.If our private enterprises live tax-free for one year, do you know how much private enterprise investment can be stimulated based on this?But we all waste a lot of it. This kind of photovoltaic power generation made of polysilicon, that is, solar power generation, is to install solar panels on the roof, and this panel is made of polysilicon.This technology has been implemented in Japan for 30 years. According to my information, about 1/10 of Japan's power generation equipment uses solar energy.Germany originally planned to realize 100,000 sets of photovoltaic roof systems by the end of 2003. The German government provided a budget of 460 million euros for this purpose, and Spain also provided subsidies for solar energy projects. Japan, Germany, Spain and other countries are vigorously promoting this kind of rooftop solar energy equipment, what about us in China?There is only one person in China who is doing it. He is Zhao Chunjiang, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Electric Power Institute. He spent more than 200,000 yuan to buy the equipment from Mitsubishi, Japan, and built 22 blocks, about 21 square meters. Photovoltaic roof, self-generated electricity.This is the only solar power generation equipment in the country. He said that he generates electricity by himself and has generated more than 4,000 kWh. In addition to being self-sufficient, it can also be connected to the national grid and input 1,300 kWh of electricity to the national grid.But this matter is very interesting. If you sell electricity to the State Grid, you should be able to get some money back, right?But he forgot one thing, China's electricity meter can only do addition, not subtraction.You use 100 degrees of electricity, and then use another 100 degrees of electricity to become 200 degrees, and then use 100 degrees to become 300 degrees, and you will pay as many degrees as you use.But the electricity meter does not have a subtraction function. If you use 5,000 kilowatt-hours and pay 5,000 kilowatt-hours, and then you sell 3,000 kilowatt-hours to the State Grid, you should subtract 3,000 kilowatt-hours and only pay 2,000 kilowatt-hours, right?The result is not like this, because our electric meter can't do subtraction, so it becomes 5000 plus 3000, which becomes 8000 kWh, and we have to pay an extra 3000 kWh for electricity.Don't say that our country does not have incentive policies, and even our electric meters do not meet the needs of the photovoltaic industry. Moreover, the cost of solar power generation is 11 to 18 times that of coal power generation, 7 to 12 times that of biogas power generation, and 6 to 10 times that of wind power generation.Why do Germany, Japan, Spain and other countries have financial subsidies?It is because solar power is too expensive.We are a very poor developing country and it is impossible to spend this kind of money. We Chinese don't really like to study numbers. For example, an ancient Chinese book says, "How many people died in a severe drought?" How many people died?have no idea.Our Chinese culture is a culture that doesn't like numbers, so when our provincial and municipal leaders at all levels promote the photovoltaic industry, they don't look at the data.Among the world's output value, energy projects account for only 10%, and new energy sources account for only 10%.That is to say, among the world's output value, the proportion of new energy is only 1%.Today we have 18 provinces and hundreds of cities developing solar energy. It is so crazy that we want to use 1% of the output value to stimulate the Chinese economy.I don't know what to say, just one sentence, either I am a fool, or I haven't read the data.It never occurred to me that this industry cannot drive the Chinese economy, but China is doing this like crazy now. This kind of "Great Leap Forward" thinking is really scary. In fact, not only this, but also wind power.Readers will see wind power generation equipment like Dutch windmills when they go to the seaside or to Inner Mongolia. We are also frantically working on this thing recently.I have a piece of information here. Local governments are willing to develop wind power. A county-level city often plans to develop wind power with 100,000 mu or 200,000 mu of land. As for whether the local area is suitable for construction, how to build it, whether it can be built, and power generation There is no plan for where to send it to and how to connect to the grid.Many wind power projects neither consider technology nor market, let alone supporting equipment, which is very blind. Since 2004, China's wind power has embarked on a crazy "expansion road". From 6 companies in 2004 to more than 70 now, the number of companies has increased by more than 10 times. There are only 10 manufacturers, and we already have seventy or eighty in China. In 2007, Goldwind, the largest wind turbine manufacturer in China, had a gross profit margin of about 30%, but now it has dropped to 20%. In May 2009, the price of wind turbines also fell to 5,400 yuan per kilowatt, a drop of nearly 16%. Many foreign wind power factories see that so many real estate developers in China are starting to do this industry, so they sell them equipment that is not up to standard or outdated technology at high prices, because they don't understand it at all.So we bought a lot of foreign garbage, and the failure rate of our wind power machinery is as high as 20%. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission said so. The National Development and Reform Commission is quite sober, saying that we will have three or five wind power companies in the future.But now we have more than 70 companies doing it, and many places are building wind power bases.Actually, I was thinking, will they use the planned 100,000 mu and 200,000 mu of land to build villas?Building a villa under the wind power equipment is still a selling point. The advertisement can say, let's enjoy the windmills in the Netherlands.Many of us have never seen what a Dutch windmill looks like, and think that wind power is a windmill, which is a good selling point. What's more interesting is that in addition to buying other people's obsolete equipment, most wind power companies in China buy other people's drawings. Now there should be 70 out of 70 or 80 companies that buy drawings.Not only does it cost money to buy drawings, but there is also a contract, and how much money will be paid to the other party for each wind turbine produced.Moreover, this industry is not allowed to be exported, and you cannot change the technology in it casually.Of course, foreigners don’t have to worry, even if they allow us to change, we don’t know how to change it. This is the level of our wind power technology, and most of them are laymen working in this industry. In view of the problems existing in the field of domestic new energy development, the National Development and Reform Commission recently updated the "Catalog of Encouraged Imported Technologies and Products". Deleted from the Catalog.Relevant experts believe that it is the government's intention to control the production capacity of some overheated new energy sources and enhance the independent innovation capabilities of enterprises.From the perspective of the general environment, although as a developing country, China has not undertaken the obligation of carbon emission reduction in the "Kyoto Protocol", but in the future, China will face increasing pressure to reduce emissions. During the negotiation of the Copenhagen Agreement, which expired in 2012, European and American countries have asked emerging countries like China to undertake the responsibility of reducing carbon emissions.The development of new energy is not only a bargaining chip in political games, but also a century-old plan for the sustainable survival of the Chinese people.
If we continue to promote the wind power industry, do you know what the result will be?I believe that this serious overcapacity will inevitably lead to vicious competition, and it will be like our TV industry in China, where the last TV can only earn 5 yuan.This is because there is a lack of national planning, and everyone thinks wind power is too simple.You can see that many tall buildings and wind turbines have been built in Inner Mongolia, and they look good. Let me ask you, when the wind comes, it can generate electricity. What if the wind stops?Then we must rely on the original thermal power generation to make up for the deficiency of wind power generation.So who owns the conversion technology from wind power to thermal power?It is still in the United States and Europe, and we do not control this important core technology.When we build a wind power plant, there may be a thermal power plant next to it. Is it necessary to be so troublesome?You might as well engage in thermal power generation.Moreover, a certain copper element used in the manufacture of wind turbines, like polysilicon, is highly polluting, and once this pollution enters the land, it will harm our future generations and will never subside. On the surface, wind power and photovoltaics seem to be good concepts.In fact, what will be the result in the end?When we develop this industry in China, we not only start to return low-carbon dollars to Europe and the United States, so that European and American equipment manufacturers can make money, but what is even worse is that our green product exports protect the environment abroad, and all black pollution remains in the country. To the detriment of readers and our future generations.Moreover, among the trillions of dollars of investment, I believe that 80 to 90% of it is in vain, and with so much land enclosed, I also believe that most of it may be used to build villas. This is the essence of our new energy future. In the world energy field, solar power technology still plays a minor role. In 2007, compared with coal-fired power generation capacity of more than 1000 gigawatts, the capacity of all solar power generation installations in the world was only 6.6 gigawatts; in the United States, solar cells provided less than 0.05% of the total electricity supply.The biggest hurdle is that photovoltaic cells are not yet cheap enough to compete on a large scale. Traditional crystalline silicon solar cells have dominated the market for the past 30 years and still controlled 93% of the market in 2007.Producers of conventional crystalline silicon solar cells believe they can reach that price with the help of cheap manufacturers around the world. In 2007, China became the world's third-largest maker of solar cells after Japan and Germany, and raised billions through a public stock offering to further expand production capacity, creating some new billionaires in the process .The No. 1 company in this field, Wuxi Suntech, has a market value of US$5.5 billion, employs 3,500 people, and exports 90% of its products to Germany. Although this global expansion has resulted in a shortage of crystalline silicon, a more rapid expansion will certainly require the next generation of photovoltaic cell technologies to be developed in the lab and ready for the commercial market as soon as possible. Crystalline silicon has many limitations.This limitation has led most makers of next-generation solar cells to abandon silicon in favor of other semiconductor materials, usually mixtures of several materials: by mixing or layering elements with different bandgaps (critical energies), wider Range of light waves, so that the incident solar energy loss is less.Many manufacturers have also abandoned chips in favor of "thin films", replacing expensive, heavy, and difficult-to-use mass-produced modules with cheap, fast, roll-to-roll manufacturing of a large number of convenient and practical flexible materials .Others are developing solar concentrators, which combine ultra-efficient micro-batteries with low-cost lenses.Like a magnifying glass that scorches helpless mother ants, these devices can amplify thin sunlight hundreds of times. This article is excerpted from "Decisive Battle for New Energy: An Industrial Revolution Affecting the Rise and Fall of Nations" by Fred Krupp and Miriam Horn