Chapter 16 Chapter 15 Why Are Americans So Unreasonable
Focus on economic issues, China and the United States keep silent.
Whether it is Chinese scholars or American officials, they have vowed and said with certainty that the exchange rate issue of this meeting has all come to nothing.
After years of hard work, the good news came so suddenly.
He even generously promised to consider giving China a market economy status.
Chinese-American Minister of Commerce, what exactly is he obsessed with?
From the clean energy and environmental action forum in Hong Kong to the speech at Tsinghua University, the time, place and audience have changed, but the topic of this buddy’s speech has not changed.
The second China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue, which just ended on May 25, 2010, has passed with great excitement.Of course, our major media are also discussing in full swing, thinking that we have achieved great success.What's more, Hillary and US Treasury Secretary Geithner also appeared on the program "A Date with Luyu", talking about life, marriage, children, ideals, etc. How could they be so relaxed?Moreover, Secretary of the Treasury Geithner took off his suit jacket, changed his sneakers, and went to play basketball!
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is the leader of the U.S. side in the second round of China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue.The "Wall Street Journal" paid special attention to the leader's basketball show in the first half of the day, saying that "Gethner showed a good sense of teamwork in the game: willing to pass the ball and coordinate defense", but At the same time, he questioned, "Where is the arrogance of the US Treasury Secretary who ranks fifth in the US presidential succession?" "Is Geithner reluctantly trying to make a good impression on his master?" In fact, The "basketball diplomacy" between China and the United States appeared in the first round of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue in 2009. At that time, US President Obama gave the chief representative of the Chinese side, Vice Premier Wang Qishan, a basketball signed by him. The media commented on this. "Basketball teaser, Obama passed it skillfully, Wang Qishan received it wonderfully".In an interview with a Chinese reporter, Geithner made it clear that the main reason for playing basketball is that the new energy lighting system of the basketball court comes from a small company in Iowa, USA. "When playing basketball here, everyone will notice the lighting. system.” Then, what kind of profound meaning does Geithner’s basketball show contain, and what is the United States thinking in the second round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue?
When Geithner was playing basketball, our people did not forget to remind the players on the court to pass the ball to Geithner quickly.Through the little thing of basketball, one can imagine how cautious, fearful, anxious, and humble we are when facing the Americans. It really makes people feel sad.What makes people even more sad is that the essence of this Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue is exactly the same as Geithner's basketball game, and we respectfully sent basketball to the hands of the Americans.Why do I say that?It is because the United States has been planning this series of conspiracies since September 20, 2009.Do you remember that in May last year, I called on our government to be vigilant against the exchange rate war launched by the United States. I was the first scholar in the world to make such a call.Of course, our government still doesn't listen to me as always. On September 20, 2009, the exchange rate war started.By the end of March 2010, 130 members of the U.S. Congress jointly wrote to Secretary of the Treasury Geithner and Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke, asking them to list China as a currency manipulator on April 15, 2010.Why are they doing this?It is because if China is listed as a currency manipulator, the United States can impose a 27.5% tariff on all Chinese products exported to the United States. But I really don't think the Americans would be so stupid. Why would they start a trade war?Readers, please think about it, if the United States really lists us as a currency manipulator on April 15, although they can impose a 27.5% tariff on the surface, what if the Chinese government retaliates?Of course, the chances of our government daring to retaliate are very small.However, if we retaliate and impose a 27.5% tariff on all products exported from the United States to China, this will become an out-and-out trade war. Although China will be seriously injured in the end, the United States will also suffer. cause a certain amount of damage.Therefore, I really don't think the United States would be so stupid. Why are they willing to be hurt?Even my level can figure it out. Obama’s team is much smarter than me. They can’t figure it out. I think they will definitely use the trade war as a means, but the real goal is the exchange rate war.Readers, please think about it, if we can take advantage of the god-given opportunity of listing China as a currency manipulator on April 15, and force the RMB exchange rate to appreciate by 27.5%, wouldn’t this result be the same as a 27.5% increase in tariffs?Moreover, the Chinese government has no reason to retaliate against the appreciation of the exchange rate, because it is we who want to appreciate it. After five Sino-U.S. strategic economic dialogues and six Sino-U.S. strategic dialogues, in April 2009, the heads of state of China and the United States decided during the G20 London Summit to combine the two dialogue systems into one, with " The formation mechanism for the name of the Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue will continue.The characteristic of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue is to discuss dialogue and cooperation in the fields of politics, diplomacy, economy, and finance under a unified framework.The first round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue was held in Washington on July 27-28, 2009.As world powers, the scope of dialogue between China and the United States is very extensive.As far as the United States is concerned, there are not only overall, strategic and long-term issues, but also specific issues and short-term hot issues that must be brought to the dialogue site due to domestic political pressure. State Councilor Dai Bingguo said with a smile, "Except for not talking about the moon landing, I am afraid we have discussed many issues."In the past two years, clean energy and environmental protection, financial market access and two-way investment opening, the North Korean nuclear issue, and combating terrorism have all been the focus of both China and the United States. Only in this series of issues can we find overlapping interests. Only by embodying the principle of fairness in specific issues and respecting each other's concerns can the mission of dialogue be truly fulfilled.So, under the current economic situation, where does the United States most want to make progress?
However, China’s Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducted stress tests in February and March 2010. The results showed that if the RMB exchange rate appreciates by 3%, the profit margin of China’s traditional labor-intensive industries will be zero. If the appreciation exceeds 5%, China’s A large number of traditional labor-intensive industries will close down, which will cause serious social problems.Therefore, the Chinese government's bottom line for exchange rate appreciation is 3% to 5%.And what about America's bottom line?It is between 20% and 41%. The gap is so big that the two sides have no intersection at all. Since the two sides have no intersection, the problem is complicated.Readers, please think about it, the United States clearly knows that it is impossible for us in China to appreciate the exchange rate to between 20% and 41%, because that would be terrible, and it would disintegrate the entire Chinese economy.Will the United States not be able to understand questions that can be understood even at my level?In fact, the United States is also very clear that it is impossible for us to agree, so why do they still do this?Let me tell you, they are "Xiang Zhuang's sword dance, aimed at Pei Gong", and they are playing tricks.What they really want is for us to open up our financial markets.As I said on the Internet, after US Treasury Secretary Geithner visited India on April 8, 2010, he flew directly to Beijing Capital Airport and had an hour-long meeting with Vice Premier Wang Qishan in the VIP lounge of the airport.After the talks, the one-year forward yuan exchange rate traded on Wall Street suddenly depreciated.That is to say, before the talk, Wall Street had been putting pressure on the RMB to appreciate, but after the talk they said it didn't matter, and it didn't matter if it didn't appreciate.Don't readers want to know why?It's very simple, we must have agreed to Wall Street's request, so what is the request? I once mentioned in the article that after Japan signed the "Plaza Accord" in 1985, in January 1990, the United States dropped a financial nuclear warhead that blew up Japan's asset bubble and plunged Japan into a 20-year depression. Way to pick up.Do readers know what was the financial nuclear warhead that blew up Japan at that time?I disassembled it, and there are three parts in it. The first is called margin trading; the second is called stock index futures; the third is called allowing Wall Street to enter Japan to manipulate the first two parts. May I ask readers, which spare parts are still missing in China?I tell you, the third.Because we opened margin financing and securities lending on March 31, 2010, and stock index futures on April 16, and now we are short of the last one—allowing Wall Street to enter China to manipulate these two spare parts.As long as Wall Street is allowed in, the financial nuclear warhead is ready to be handed over to the United States immediately.I think April 8 might be about that. On April 13, our State Council announced an opinion called "Several Opinions of the State Council on Further Utilizing Foreign Investment".The third opinion is to allow Wall Street to enter China through joint ventures.So far, the three spare parts of the financial nuclear warhead have been prepared, and they are waiting to be handed over to the United States. They can attack us at any time. This is the first gift they want.The second Sino-US Economic Strategic Dialogue reaffirmed that Wall Street is allowed to manipulate stock index futures through QFII, that is, qualified foreign institutional investors to use margin financing and securities lending.Do readers feel that the United States is satisfied with these things? Then I would like to remind readers to recall what Obama said on February 15, 2009 in response to the financial tsunami. He said that new energy sources should be developed to stimulate the US economy. On January 29, 2010, he said that in the next five years, US exports would double and 2 million job opportunities would be created.It suddenly occurred to me that in addition to taking away the financial nuclear warheads, why doesn't the United States ask China to pay the bill and let China assist the United States in developing new energy, so as to achieve the goal of doubling exports and solve the employment problem in the United States?As I said, those people in the United States are much smarter than me. They must have thought of what I thought of, so I think this is the real purpose of the second strategic economic dialogue. In fact, I sympathize with our government. Under the oppression of the new imperialism of the United States, what it can do is very limited.Readers may ask me, "Professor Lang, what would you do if it were you?" I must admit that I have no choice. The China-US Dialogue announced 26 outcomes, 8 agreements, and 5 commitments.Among them, 5 agreements were signed on the new energy project, and 12 of the 26 achievements were related to new energy, and others were not important, including medical cooperation, human rights issues, anti-corruption, climate, anti-terrorism and opinions on international affairs etc. Many media and scholars at home and abroad believe that the exchange rate is the focus of the second Sino-US dialogue, but they have not figured out the situation at all. Although the China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue has only been held twice, it shows signs of heating up in terms of scale and specifications, as well as the importance attached by both sides.Before the first round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue in 2009, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton?Clinton said that the dialogue "concentrated the highest-level officials of the two countries on the largest scale, and the scope of the talks was unparalleled." Secretary of State Campbell once again expressed the same view, he believes that by US Secretary of State Hillary?Clinton, US Treasury Secretary Timothy?The US delegation led by Geithner has a luxurious lineup and an unprecedented scale. "This will be the largest visit to China by cabinet and government officials in US history. During the two-day agenda, our entire delegation will have more than 200 officials. They came from various departments of the U.S. government, especially officials from the Department of Defense and the U.S. Pacific Command.” So, what kind of agreements can be reached in such a large-scale and high-level dialogue?
Xi Junyang, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, pointed out in an interview that economic and trade relations and exchange rate issues must be key topics of discussion.Yu Lixin, a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Trade of the Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the appreciation of the renminbi is a double-edged sword, and the appreciation may trigger a more intense trade war between China and the United States.The Reuters article also stated that if the RMB exchange rate is only the focus of the dialogue, the results of the dialogue will be quite disappointing.The spokesperson of the U.S. Treasury Department announced on April 26, 2010 that when U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton attended the Strategic Dialogue from May 24 to 25, they would have a dialogue with Chinese senior officials on the RMB exchange rate. .This shows that even the spokesperson of the Ministry of Finance did not understand the situation at that time.But on May 21, US Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke made no mention of the RMB exchange rate issue that has become a hot topic in recent years in his speech on clean energy at Tsinghua University.When he met with the members of the China-US Chamber of Commerce, facing the representatives' questions, he said that the exchange rate issue would be discussed at the China-US Economic Strategy Meeting. He said that Treasury Secretary Geithner would continue to take a tough stance on this issue.However, no matter how confidently Chinese scholars or American officials say that this meeting is mainly about the exchange rate issue, the results all come to nothing. Why?Readers, please think about it, if the real purpose of the United States is to obtain financial nuclear warheads and new energy sources, why do they discuss exchange rates?If Peigong is killed, is there any point in aiming at Peigong?Since he can get such a big gift of new energy, does he have the nerve to talk about the exchange rate again?Therefore, the United States did not discuss the exchange rate issue with us, which was the first surprise for us. So what is the second surprise that the United States gave us?It was they who generously promised to "consider" China's market economy status.Do readers know how important this is?Over the years, it is because they do not recognize China's market economy status, so they often sanction our export products, such as anti-dumping and so on.Moreover, U.S. sanctions are usually calculated using the market price of a third country. For example, in the Sino-U.S. color TV anti-dumping case, the U.S. chose India as China’s substitute country. You must know that the average raw material price of Indian color TVs is 6 times that of China. The price must be much higher than ours, but the United States has never been unreasonable, and they use this standard to sanction us.And what is the real legal basis for these sanctions?It is because we are not a market economy country.Once the United States recognizes that China is a market economy, there will be no legal basis for sanctions against us.We must know that from 2006 to 2009, the amount involved in the US anti-dumping against China exceeded US$6 billion. With such a large amount, why did the US give up this trump card?Of course, the United States has not really given up. They only said to "consider" giving China a market economy status. They can "consider" for many years, maybe 20 years. Anyway, they have not violated their promises, but China still needs to work harder. , how hard?We have to meet the demands of the United States, and I think this is what they will do. Why did the United States make two such big concessions?I think there is only one reason, and it must be that China has made greater concessions. Hu Zuliu, the managing director of Goldman Sachs, looks a bit like a real estate developer. On May 28, 2010, when he was a guest on Phoenix Satellite TV's "Gold Stone Finance", he said that the research results of new energy between China and the United States should be shared.Hu Zuliu is actually equivalent to a comprador in the Qing Dynasty, who specialized in running errands for foreigners.I was horrified when he said that we should share new energy sources with the United States. On May 30, he said that there is a lot of room for Sino-US energy cooperation, and I think he is trying to create public opinion.Of course, I must admit that he has more influence in the Chinese government than I do. Although he is always talking nonsense, I don’t understand why our government always listens to him, and there are even rumors that he will be appointed as the deputy of the central bank. President. For 15 consecutive years since 1995, China has been the "world champion" of anti-dumping investigations. In the seven years after China joined the WTO in 2001, the total number of anti-dumping investigations against Chinese companies was 392, with an average of 56 cases per year. .Under the current "rules of the game", WTO member states have the right to treat "complete market economy countries" and "non-market economy countries" differently.In the definitions of many countries, Chinese industries with a huge state-owned economy are a priori presumed to be "not in line with the market economy" standard.Therefore, since the date of joining the WTO, China has been defined as a "non-market economy country" for a period of 15 years.This means that before the 15-year "non-market economy status" expires, that is, before 2016, if China wants to change this status quo, it will have to negotiate country by country.According to Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce of China, there are currently about 30 "high-income countries" including the United States, Japan and the European Union, and 3/4 of the world's "high-income countries" do not recognize China's market economy status.In the first round of Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan made a keynote speech, especially urging the US to recognize China's market economy status as soon as possible. On May 25, 2010, with the announcement of the second round of Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue outcomes, the news that the United States "committed to recognize China's market economy status as soon as possible" attracted widespread attention and was called "a major breakthrough" by many media. progress".So, what kind of promise has the United States made?And why are they willing to put down the trump card that can start a trade war?
I found that Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke and President Obama were singing a double reed.Gary Locke is the face of the Chinese, but it is actually a banana with a yellow outside and white inside. This kind of person has a deeper understanding of China and hits harder.Many people also said that Geithner's Chinese is very good and they are very happy.I said don't be happy, Americans who can learn Chinese are not easy to mess with.Think about it, how wise it is to think of learning Chinese in high school and college. Would you learn African languages?And for a banana like Locke, in order to show his fairness, he will definitely go too far against China.So when I went to study in the United States, one of my teachers, Professor Chen Zhaonan, who passed away, told me when I was in college: "Lang Xianping, in the future, if you look for a supervisor in the United States, you must not find a Chinese American. They want to express themselves. It is fair and just, especially tormenting Chinese students. If you are looking for Jews or white Americans, they don’t have any worries in their hearts, they are more frank, and they will take care of foreign students.” I keep this teaching in mind, so my supervisor in the United States Even white Americans, as well as Jews, I definitely dare not look for Chinese Americans, and I think Locke is similar.Locke arrived in Hong Kong on May 16 and left Beijing on May 25. From the Hong Kong Clean Energy and Environmental Action Forum to Tsinghua University's speech, the time, location and audience have changed, but this buddy's The theme of the speech has not changed, that is clean energy.I read his exact words to the readers. Locke said: "I hope that our children and grandchildren will feel very relieved and proud of their predecessors when they look back on the past 150 years. The efforts we have made have made great contributions to the earth." We Chinese like to hear this lie that flatters us the most, and it is ridiculous that China and the United States should work together. If the United States can dominate alone, what reason do they have to come to us? What about working together?Can't the United States do it by itself?And he said that the United States represents the highest level of new energy, including 24 companies including Boeing, DuPont, General Motors, Duke, and First Solar. Technological American Enterprise. On May 27, 2010, the White House released the Obama Administration's National Security Strategy Report.This is Obama's first national security strategy report released 16 months after he took office.The report dropped the Bush administration's "war on terror" and the Bush administration's "preemptive strike" strategy.Most notably, the report states that "at the heart of our efforts is a commitment to revive our economy, the source of American strength."According to the analysis, the "National Security Strategy Report" is a concrete manifestation of Obama's so-called "smart diplomacy".Under this kind of "smart diplomacy" thinking, Obama and Geithner cooperated so tacitly around the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue. Then, Obama and Geithner hope that their double-reed performances will bring benefits to the US economy. what?
Look at how Obama sings double reeds in the United States? The day after the economic strategy meeting was held on May 26, Obama delivered a speech in the United States, saying exactly the opposite.He said that we are far behind in energy technology. Among the top 10 photovoltaic cell manufacturers in the world, 7 are Asian companies, and 3 of the top 5 are Chinese companies. They are Suntech Power, registered in Wuxi, Jiangsu; Green Energy, registered in Baoding, Hebei; Tianhe Solar, registered in Changzhou, Jiangsu.Do you guys sound proud?I think that as long as you are proud of something, there is usually a problem.I found that although the so-called three Chinese companies were registered in China, they were all listed in the United States, and most of the shares were held by American investors.In addition, US institutional investors and funds hold 42% and 48% of the equity of Suntech and Yingli respectively. In my opinion, the purpose of their concerted efforts is to hope that China will pay for the early stage research and development of new energy, and keep the pollution produced in the middle, such as the highly toxic silicon tetrachloride left by refining polysilicon, in China, and finally keep the profits in the United States.This is our real concession in this Sino-US economic dialogue. On May 20, 2010, British Petroleum (BP) crude oil leaked out of the Gulf of Mexico, causing an unprecedented environmental catastrophe.It is because of this crude oil spill that Obama's polls have reached a historical low, so Obama has suffered a lot recently.Even according to media reports, more than half of the people are dissatisfied with Obama's handling of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, which may endanger his re-election in the future, and this crisis is very serious. Think about it, readers, the oil spill occurred on May 20, and May 24 and 25 are the second Sino-US strategic dialogue. Obama sent more than 200 cabinet members to participate in the meeting. Why?You must know that the United States is different from us. Our side has a lot of officials, while the United States has very few officials.They are an elite government, unlike our big government, where officials are everywhere. Do you know the concept of more than 200 people?That is to say, officials from all departments of the US government are almost out in force.I even suspect that there is only one official remaining in the United States, and he is Obama. On April 20, 2010, the "Deepwater Horizon" oil drilling platform in the US Gulf of Mexico exploded and sank to the bottom of the sea two days later. The resulting oil spill unfortunately became the worst environmental disaster in US history.According to estimates on June 15, the amount of oil spilled at this time was between 35,000 and 60,000 barrels per day.Since the afternoon of June 3, people in more than 50 cities across the United States have taken to the streets to launch a protest called "Catch BP".The crude oil spill caused by the sinking of the drilling platform not only brought a heavy blow to BP, but the US government was also criticized for failing to stop the leak in time.Not only that, on June 7, US President Obama Tangy said that the crude oil spill will have a substantial impact on the US economy, and this impact will continue. On June 15, 2010, U.S. President Barack Obama expressed his opinion to the media, saying, "The impact of the oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico on the United States is comparable to the '9? What is the relationship between the oil spill crisis and the Chinese economy?
If you were Obama, what would you do if you encountered such an oil spill?It is best to give the public a good and fast report card on energy policy.US solar cell giant First Solar recently won the approval of the Chinese government to build the world's largest solar production base in Ordos, Inner Mongolia. The project covers an area of 64 square kilometers, slightly larger than Manhattan, New York.The production scale is about 2 million kilowatts of power generation, which is equivalent to two coal-fired power plants in China.Take the Solyndra company that Obama once inspected as an example. This company received a financial guarantee loan of 535 million US dollars in one year. What is the return of this company to Obama? 3,000 jobs, 1,000 of which are full-time. How much production capacity does Snlyndra want to use with a financially guaranteed loan of US$535 million? 500,000 kilowatts.Therefore, First Solar's Ordos project is four times larger than the Solyndra project, which is equivalent to saving US$2.14 billion in financial guarantee loans for the US government.Moreover, if a solar power station of the same scale is built in the United States, it will cost 5 billion to 6 billion U.S. dollars, but what about building it in China?The United States saved 5 billion! 6 billion dollars invested!Calculated in this way, the Americans have saved a total of 7.14 billion to 8.14 billion US dollars in fishing investment.In addition, since all solar energy production facilities are located in the United States, this will create 12,000 jobs in the United States, of which 4,000 are full-time jobs.And nuclear power. In March 2009, we imported 4 units from Westinghouse Electric, two of which are in Sanmen, Zhejiang, and two in Haiyang, Shandong.The card we play at the nuclear power plant is called the "World Card".We have Canadian equipment called Qingshan Yamazaki; Russian equipment called Tianwan; French nuclear power plant, which is the follow-up project of Daya Bay, and now we have American Westinghouse Electric AP1000. In the second round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue, the outcome that the nuclear industry is most concerned about is undoubtedly the "Memorandum of Understanding on Further Strengthening the Nuclear Safety Cooperation of Westinghouse AP1000 Nuclear Reactor" between the National Nuclear Safety Administration of China and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.According to relevant media reports, since the AP1000 technology has not been implemented in any nuclear power plant, it has been controversial since it decided to spend huge sums of money to introduce the technology.However, some academicians of the two academies told the media that the purchase of foreign third-generation nuclear power technology is entirely an expedient measure adopted by the government due to the large trade surplus with Europe and the United States. After 2004, as Western countries resumed nuclear power investment under the dual pressure of high oil prices and carbon emission reductions, global nuclear power is ushering in a new round of concentrated production.China has also started to promote nuclear power since 2009, and its huge market will inevitably attract the attention of global economic forces.
Do you feel weird?According to our own publicity, Westinghouse Electric's first unit AP1000 will be set up in China.Why are we so awesome in China?Even our media felt very good, and commented that the United States did not have the first unit until 2016, and we have the first unit now.Should you be elated or terrified at this point?If it is the most advanced nuclear power technology in the world, why is the first unit not in the United States but in China?Don't you think these are suspicious?Why does the United States give us the best?We feel too good about it.I think this is what I said earlier - paying for the early research and development in the United States. First of all, let's see if its technology is advanced. From 2005 to 2006, the U.S. government reviewed the technology of AP1000, and then it failed to pass the test and was revised again. In 2007, it was applied again, and it was only approved by the U.S. government in 2009.But we started construction in March 2009, when did we introduce it? We started bidding in September 2004, and when the bidding results were announced in December 2006, Westinghouse became the final winner. In March 2007, it was decided to build four units in Sanmen, Zhejiang and Haiyang, Shandong.Do you see it?The technology of the United States only passed the test in 2009, and we passed the technical review in 2006 before other people's technology passed the test. And a total of 7 states in the United States want to use this device, including South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and so on.But as of 2010, it is still in the stage of design and site selection, and a hearing is still needed to see if the local people agree with it.Therefore, for Americans, it takes two and a half years for design and site selection, and one year for ordinary people's hearings, adding up to three and a half years.Why?for safety.And look at us, it took just over three months to pass.So we have to admit that our Chinese nation is the most daring nation, we are fearless, and we are not afraid of nuclear energy disasters.Even when other people's technology was immature and before the US government passed it, China passed it three years ahead, because we "predicted" that this technology could pass the test ahead of the world.As a result, the unit we are going to start building has not yet been built in the United States. In the United States, it is still undergoing environmental assessment, design, and site selection.What's more ridiculous?Among so many nuclear power plants, there are 6 that have not yet held a hearing, and only one has actually held a hearing. We plan to use AP1000 to unify China's nuclear power construction technology route. In the future, the technology of these 4 units can be copied to other unlimited units. We hope to build a nuclear power capacity of 40 million kilowatts in 2020.I found that the idea of "Great Leap Forward" came again, let's see how to make our nation smart.Please think about it, the report of the International Energy Agency is very clear that it takes 50 years for a country to completely localize a nuclear power standard. Is it because we say that we can copy it?And we have also engaged in a lot of joint venture cars in the past 30 years, right?But after 30 years of joint venture, have we mastered the core technology?Building a car is easier than building a nuclear power plant.You haven’t mastered the core technology of making cars after 30 years of joint venture, and within 3 years of building nuclear power, we will make a “Great Leap Forward” and completely copy it to China. By 2020, all of China will use AP1000?I think we experts are crazy. At 10:28 am on June 21, 2010, the construction of the No. 2 nuclear island of the Shandong Haiyang Nuclear Power Project officially started. So far, the construction of the world's first four AP1000 units has officially started in China.The AP1000 technology of Westinghouse Corporation of the United States has been evaluated by Chinese experts as the most advanced, safest and most economical third-generation nuclear power technology in the world.Just because they believe in its safety and economy, relevant experts said, "In the application of AP1000 technology, China was not only the first to eat crabs, but also ate 4 crabs in batches for the first time."For the 11 nuclear power units currently in operation in China, the nuclear power technologies are all second-generation or second-generation improved technologies. Regarding the imported AP1000 third-generation technology, the relevant nuclear power companies have designed a "three-step" strategy: the first step is foreign-based , the Chinese side fully participates; the second step, the Chinese side takes the lead, and the foreign side supports; the third step, comprehensive independent innovation, forming independent intellectual property rights.So, how to treat the localization of AP1000 and related economic benefits?
If we really decide to promote this immature technology, it's better to be cheap.Although the international bidding plan was originally submitted to the central government for approval at 1,800-1,900 US dollars per kilowatt, the State Nuclear Technology Corporation responsible for the introduction has asked the owner to prepare to take over the project at a price of more than 2,000 US dollars per kilowatt, and it also included a disturbing Condition - "Uncapped".It should be known that due to the unpredictable technical risks of AP1000, the final actual cost is likely to be higher.According to Wen Hongjun, director of the Economic Professional Committee of China Nuclear Power Dynamics Society, published in "Business Weekly" on October 20, 2008, the article "Third-generation nuclear power is becoming more expensive" introduced that in the three AP1000 nuclear power plants in the United States, the investment budget per kilowatt is 4300 Two nuclear power plants using French EPR technology have started construction. Due to repeated delays in the construction period of the Finnish project, its budget has climbed to about 4,200 U.S. dollars per kilowatt. Due to serious quality problems, it was ordered by the nuclear safety agency to suspend work for rectification. It took nearly a month to resume work, and the cost increase was inevitable. Compared with the expensive foreign third-generation nuclear power plants, the self-designed Qinshan Phase II nuclear power plant at the same level costs $1,360 per kilowatt; the Liaoning Hongyanhe nuclear power plant with four CRP1000 units costs $1,662 per kilowatt.These real data show that the cost of introducing nuclear power will be at least three times that of self-construction. Since 1978, my country has decided to start from a high starting point, purchase advanced nuclear power technology from abroad, and promote the development of domestic nuclear power.China Guangdong Nuclear Power, which undertakes this historical task, has initially formed its own engineering management and operation management team by the time Unit 1 of the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant was completed and put into operation through introduction, digestion, absorption, and innovation in 1994. Experience has been accumulated in the autonomy and localization of nuclear power plants.By the time the first phase of Ling'ao Nuclear Power Plant was under construction in May 1997, China's nuclear power had already started initial independent innovation.In less than 30 years, through gradual progress, continuous improvement, and independent innovation, my country has formed a second-generation improved nuclear power reactor type of one million kilowatts with its own brand——CPR1000, and its overall performance has reached the advanced level of international nuclear power plants of the same type in service. The localization rate of reactor-type equipment has reached 60% to 70%. Then, after the second-generation reactor type, does my country have more advanced nuclear power technology?
Although I have always been skeptical about China's industrial innovation, I must say that China is more advanced than the United States in terms of nuclear energy, because we have mastered the fourth generation technology.Does the reader know what the difference is?核能的前三代技术的基础是一样的，和第四代完全不同。我用一个我们老百姓都听得懂的例子打个比方，前三代核能可以被理解为油墨打印机，而第四代叫做激光打印机，就差这么多。讲得更专业一点，前三代核能技术要插入控制棒才能降低核反应堆的高温，但是，前苏联的切尔诺贝利核电站和美国的三里岛核电站都曾经发生过核电厂爆炸案，原因就是控制棒本身被核能的高温熔化了，所以发生核电站爆炸的事故。而我们掌握的第四代核能完全不用控制棒，而叫做高温气冷堆，利用空气冷却。 2002年，《核工程和设计》上发表了一篇文章，专门讲我们清华大学的一个项目，叫10兆瓦模块式高温气冷堆。这个高温气冷堆概念的原创者之一叫娄纳，他说了一句话，高温气冷堆是全世界第一个“固有安全”反应堆。What does that mean?就是说，这是第一个第四代反应堆。虽然它非常小，但重要的是，它的所有部件和那些250兆瓦以上的原型堆，设计原理都是一样的，各位懂我的意思吧。到了2004年9月30日，世界上的第一个模块式高温气冷堆，在北京搞了一个核安全的实验演示。当时，30多个国家的原子能专家一起看了这个演示。演示的名字很长，叫做“不插入控制棒下反应堆丧失冷却”实验。各位，这是全世界有史以来第一次用运行中的反应堆来做的演示，这说明什么？说明我们的核能技术排在世界前列。第四代核电技术国际论坛一共确定了6种堆型，由美国主导的叫做“超高温气冷堆”（VHTR），美国2001年的能源政策报告中提到的核电技术就是这个。等到清华大学的高温气冷堆建成之后，美国国会代表，还有美国的能源部长，都纷纷跑过来参观。 其实也就是说，我们的研究水平是非常厉害的，结果呢？我们竟然在第二次中美战略与经济对话中，同意与美国核安全管理当局合作，让美方参与中国首个工业规模的高温气冷堆示范工程的安全评审工作，共享安全评审方面的经验。而作为回报，美方愿提供他们有关评审AP1000的资料的经验。但是你别忘了，美国到现在都还没有一台真正运营起来的AP1000呢！换句话说，就是我们同意把我们最先进的第四代核能技术拿来和美国人分享，美国给我们的回报呢？是继续把美国现在还没有开发出来的第三代核能技术率先在中国做活体实验，井且由我们出钱让美国人来评审美国现代技术，搞到最后，我们就这样把一个8000亿元市场的份额拱手让给美国了，换来AP1000这么个已经落后的技术。我怎么都搞不明白，我们为什么总是喜欢干这种愚蠢的事情！ 其实看不下去的不止我一个，现在各界也都对这个事情进行批评并提出了两个疑问。 第一个疑问，难道我们非得进口吗？我来作个对比吧，2009年12月28日，韩国财团击败其他强大对手，拿下了为阿联酋建造民用核电站的合同，这个合同价值204亿美元，是全球最大的核招标项目之一。此外，后续的服务还会有200亿美元的合同收入。这次我们中国从美国买的也是四个核电站，对吧？韩国卖给阿联酋的也是四个。人家韩国通过这笔生意赚了400亿美元，再看看我们，不仅没挣到什么钱，还因此放弃了8000亿元的市场，这意味着什么？意味着我们连阿联酋都不如。另外一点，透过这个招标，我们也能看出来日本的高深之处。表面上看是韩国人夺标对吧？但是别忘了，这个韩国财团除了包括韩国电力公司、现代建设、三星和斗山重工外，还包括美国的西屋电气，而美国的西屋电气由谁控股？日本东芝重工，西屋电气77％的股权都是它持有的，当初日本人收购这些股权的时候，不过才54亿美元而已。再看看另外两个竞争者，分别是法国阿海珐和美国通用电气牵头的财团。Actually?阿海珐是和日本三菱重工合作的，而通用电气是和日立合作的。好，就算是我们喜欢美国技术，可为什么非要谈判呢？一通乱七八糟的谈判下来，结果就是送给美国8000亿元。 2009年8月5日，新华社发布消息称，原中核集团党组书记、总经理康日新因严重违纪，正在接受组织调查。2010年1月15日，康日新被开除党籍和公职。康日新领导下的中核集团在国资委中央企业名录中排第一位，有着“头号央企”的美誉。康日新因此被称为“中国核掌门”。康日新落马事件引发了中国核工业的深度反思。各方分析认为，我国在一些核电重大项目的招投标上，尽管制度设计得极为严密，但“人”的因素仍能发挥作用。中国在20多年的核电发展过程中，技术路线一直摇摆不定，这给了国外核电巨头鲸吞中国核电建设庞大蛋糕的机会，而我国自己拥有的核电技术知识产权却被日益边缘化。中国核电行业目前正处于体制性变革的十字路口，那么，行业的健康发展有没有更有效的模式，哪些国家的做法可以为我们提供借鉴呢？
第二个疑问。为什么我们能签下如此丧权辱国的条约？我看腐败也是个重要原因。我给大家看个资料吧，这种腐败的东西太多了，我根本记不全。一是2007年年底，因核电招标中涉嫌泄密，中国技术进出口总公司原总裁蒋新生被中纪委“双规”。二是2008年年底，中国广东核电集团原副总经理沈如刚及集团20多人涉案被查。三是2009年8月5日，中国核工业集团公司党组书记、总经理康日新因涉嫌严重违纪，接受组织调查。2010年1月15日，康日新被开除党籍和公职。有很多人对第二次对话抱有很大的期望，还期待能通过这次对话把这些贪官误国签下的条约都修正过来呢，结果呢？我们大家不是一般的失望了，这些人可恶得很，非但没有拿回我们应该拿回的东西，却说要继续加强两国在AP1000项目上的合作！ 这些批评虽然中肯，但还是没有理解到问题的核心。美国发起贸易大战，计划在2010年4月15日将中国列入汇率操纵国，其实就是把贸易大战当做一种手段，汇率大战才是真正的目的。而我们为了避免汇率大战，就必须让出金融核弹头以及庞大的新能源市场。我很理解我们政府，因为我们别无选择，美国就是个新帝国主义国家，唉，还是毛泽东理解美国，他说，帝国主义的本质是不会改变的。看看美国商务部长骆家辉访问日本的时候，怎么回答日本的媒体的，他说，“美国经过多方面的考虑，认为目前条件还不成熟，所以不考虑给予中国市场经济地位了。”正如同我所想的，他们毫不犹豫地就把这个大礼物收回去了。2010年6月10日，在美国参议院听证会上，美国财政部长盖特纳受到议员的炮轰，批评他没有对人民币施压。他的回答挺熟悉，他说，人民币汇率是中国的内政，他们不应该怎么怎么。参议院气得要立法压迫人民币升值。美国总统奥巴马竟然暗示这个立法的提案会在众议院被否决。他们两个人怎么会那么够意思呢？道理很简单，吃人家的嘴软、拿人家的手短，他们就是脸皮再厚，也得顾及点吃相，不能太难看了吧。不过，奥巴马绝不是省油的灯，6月18日，奥巴马写给6月26和27日召开的20国峰会的其他领导一封私人信件，敦促他们在峰会上对人民币施加压力。哈哈，自己不好意思施压，所以请别的国家对人民币施加压力。我相信是中美双方唱双簧，6月19日，中国人民银行宣布采行更具弹性的汇率调整措施，自6月21日开始，人民币缓慢升值了，所以免去了峰会上被“围剿”的场面。一个月之后的7月底，人民币由6.83升值到了6.77。7月8日，汇率大战结束，一切正如同我所料，美国财政部宣布，7月15日的审判日，美国决定不将中国列入汇率操纵国，因为我们已经是赔了两个夫人（一个夫人是金融核弹头，另一个夫人是新能源）又折兵（汇率还要升值）啊。 2008年11月25日日经平均指数为8323点，若将2007年7月最后一周的日经指数的平均值16978点定为100，则2008年11月25日的股价水平仅为49.0。2008年11月25日道琼斯平均指数是8497点，若将2007年7月最后一周的道琼斯平均指数13182点定为100，则2008年11月25日的股价水平为64.3。 由此可见，日本的股价跌幅远高于美国。当然，这种计算结果在不同时间段之间进行比较时，会得出不同的值。尽管如此，选取任何相同的两个时点进行比较，都会得出日本的股价跌幅大于美国的结论。 为什么日本的股价会如此暴跌呢？以下几种说法很值得我们思考。 其一是“对岸失火”说。但如果仅是“对岸失火”，日本的股价并不会如此暴跌。从现在发生的一切来看，问题的实质不仅仅是“美国的次级贷”问题，而是日本经济本质的问题。因此预计今后日本产生的问题会比美国更严重，日本股价跌幅会更大。只要我们能虚心坦诚地接受市场传递的信号，必然会得出这样的结论。 其二是“外资出逃”说（因改革意愿不强而引发外国投资者出逃，进而导致股价下跌）。外国投资者出逃是事实，但日本企业业绩恶化才是真正原因，并不是因为改革意愿不强（“改革”只是政治口号，并不能改革日本的企业和日本经济的本质）。再有，因外国投资者卖出日本股票后将资金带回本国，这会导致日元贬值，而实际情况是—日元还在升值。因此，这种说法也过于草率，要理解日本股价暴跌的原因，还是有必要考察日本经济的运行机理，因为这和国际资本流动紧密相关。 自20世纪80年代以来，世界经济经历了黑色星期一、亚洲金融危机、长期资本管理公司的衰亡、IT泡沫破裂等重大危机事件。这些事件对于危机的当事者来说是非常严重，但从世界的大版图来看只是一个局部事件。90年代日本经济泡沫破裂也是二战后日本最大的经济危机，但对世界经济的影响并不大。与日本的经济泡沫破裂相比，此次危机对世界经济的影响更深、波及面更广。 本文摘自［日］野口悠纪雄的《日本的反省：依赖美国的罪与罚》
When Geithner was playing basketball, our people did not forget to remind the players on the court to pass the ball to Geithner quickly.Through the little thing of basketball, one can imagine how cautious, fearful, anxious, and humble we are when facing the Americans. It really makes people feel sad.What makes people even more sad is that the essence of this Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue is exactly the same as Geithner's basketball game, and we respectfully sent basketball to the hands of the Americans.Why do I say that?It is because the United States has been planning this series of conspiracies since September 20, 2009.Do you remember that in May last year, I called on our government to be vigilant against the exchange rate war launched by the United States. I was the first scholar in the world to make such a call.Of course, our government still doesn't listen to me as always. On September 20, 2009, the exchange rate war started.By the end of March 2010, 130 members of the U.S. Congress jointly wrote to Secretary of the Treasury Geithner and Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke, asking them to list China as a currency manipulator on April 15, 2010.Why are they doing this?It is because if China is listed as a currency manipulator, the United States can impose a 27.5% tariff on all Chinese products exported to the United States. But I really don't think the Americans would be so stupid. Why would they start a trade war?Readers, please think about it, if the United States really lists us as a currency manipulator on April 15, although they can impose a 27.5% tariff on the surface, what if the Chinese government retaliates?Of course, the chances of our government daring to retaliate are very small.However, if we retaliate and impose a 27.5% tariff on all products exported from the United States to China, this will become an out-and-out trade war. Although China will be seriously injured in the end, the United States will also suffer. cause a certain amount of damage.Therefore, I really don't think the United States would be so stupid. Why are they willing to be hurt?Even my level can figure it out. Obama’s team is much smarter than me. They can’t figure it out. I think they will definitely use the trade war as a means, but the real goal is the exchange rate war.Readers, please think about it, if we can take advantage of the god-given opportunity of listing China as a currency manipulator on April 15, and force the RMB exchange rate to appreciate by 27.5%, wouldn’t this result be the same as a 27.5% increase in tariffs?Moreover, the Chinese government has no reason to retaliate against the appreciation of the exchange rate, because it is we who want to appreciate it. After five Sino-U.S. strategic economic dialogues and six Sino-U.S. strategic dialogues, in April 2009, the heads of state of China and the United States decided during the G20 London Summit to combine the two dialogue systems into one, with " The formation mechanism for the name of the Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue will continue.The characteristic of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue is to discuss dialogue and cooperation in the fields of politics, diplomacy, economy, and finance under a unified framework.The first round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue was held in Washington on July 27-28, 2009.As world powers, the scope of dialogue between China and the United States is very extensive.As far as the United States is concerned, there are not only overall, strategic and long-term issues, but also specific issues and short-term hot issues that must be brought to the dialogue site due to domestic political pressure. State Councilor Dai Bingguo said with a smile, "Except for not talking about the moon landing, I am afraid we have discussed many issues."In the past two years, clean energy and environmental protection, financial market access and two-way investment opening, the North Korean nuclear issue, and combating terrorism have all been the focus of both China and the United States. Only in this series of issues can we find overlapping interests. Only by embodying the principle of fairness in specific issues and respecting each other's concerns can the mission of dialogue be truly fulfilled.So, under the current economic situation, where does the United States most want to make progress?
However, China’s Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducted stress tests in February and March 2010. The results showed that if the RMB exchange rate appreciates by 3%, the profit margin of China’s traditional labor-intensive industries will be zero. If the appreciation exceeds 5%, China’s A large number of traditional labor-intensive industries will close down, which will cause serious social problems.Therefore, the Chinese government's bottom line for exchange rate appreciation is 3% to 5%.And what about America's bottom line?It is between 20% and 41%. The gap is so big that the two sides have no intersection at all. Since the two sides have no intersection, the problem is complicated.Readers, please think about it, the United States clearly knows that it is impossible for us in China to appreciate the exchange rate to between 20% and 41%, because that would be terrible, and it would disintegrate the entire Chinese economy.Will the United States not be able to understand questions that can be understood even at my level?In fact, the United States is also very clear that it is impossible for us to agree, so why do they still do this?Let me tell you, they are "Xiang Zhuang's sword dance, aimed at Pei Gong", and they are playing tricks.What they really want is for us to open up our financial markets.As I said on the Internet, after US Treasury Secretary Geithner visited India on April 8, 2010, he flew directly to Beijing Capital Airport and had an hour-long meeting with Vice Premier Wang Qishan in the VIP lounge of the airport.After the talks, the one-year forward yuan exchange rate traded on Wall Street suddenly depreciated.That is to say, before the talk, Wall Street had been putting pressure on the RMB to appreciate, but after the talk they said it didn't matter, and it didn't matter if it didn't appreciate.Don't readers want to know why?It's very simple, we must have agreed to Wall Street's request, so what is the request? I once mentioned in the article that after Japan signed the "Plaza Accord" in 1985, in January 1990, the United States dropped a financial nuclear warhead that blew up Japan's asset bubble and plunged Japan into a 20-year depression. Way to pick up.Do readers know what was the financial nuclear warhead that blew up Japan at that time?I disassembled it, and there are three parts in it. The first is called margin trading; the second is called stock index futures; the third is called allowing Wall Street to enter Japan to manipulate the first two parts. May I ask readers, which spare parts are still missing in China?I tell you, the third.Because we opened margin financing and securities lending on March 31, 2010, and stock index futures on April 16, and now we are short of the last one—allowing Wall Street to enter China to manipulate these two spare parts.As long as Wall Street is allowed in, the financial nuclear warhead is ready to be handed over to the United States immediately.I think April 8 might be about that. On April 13, our State Council announced an opinion called "Several Opinions of the State Council on Further Utilizing Foreign Investment".The third opinion is to allow Wall Street to enter China through joint ventures.So far, the three spare parts of the financial nuclear warhead have been prepared, and they are waiting to be handed over to the United States. They can attack us at any time. This is the first gift they want.The second Sino-US Economic Strategic Dialogue reaffirmed that Wall Street is allowed to manipulate stock index futures through QFII, that is, qualified foreign institutional investors to use margin financing and securities lending.Do readers feel that the United States is satisfied with these things? Then I would like to remind readers to recall what Obama said on February 15, 2009 in response to the financial tsunami. He said that new energy sources should be developed to stimulate the US economy. On January 29, 2010, he said that in the next five years, US exports would double and 2 million job opportunities would be created.It suddenly occurred to me that in addition to taking away the financial nuclear warheads, why doesn't the United States ask China to pay the bill and let China assist the United States in developing new energy, so as to achieve the goal of doubling exports and solve the employment problem in the United States?As I said, those people in the United States are much smarter than me. They must have thought of what I thought of, so I think this is the real purpose of the second strategic economic dialogue. In fact, I sympathize with our government. Under the oppression of the new imperialism of the United States, what it can do is very limited.Readers may ask me, "Professor Lang, what would you do if it were you?" I must admit that I have no choice. The China-US Dialogue announced 26 outcomes, 8 agreements, and 5 commitments.Among them, 5 agreements were signed on the new energy project, and 12 of the 26 achievements were related to new energy, and others were not important, including medical cooperation, human rights issues, anti-corruption, climate, anti-terrorism and opinions on international affairs etc. Many media and scholars at home and abroad believe that the exchange rate is the focus of the second Sino-US dialogue, but they have not figured out the situation at all. Although the China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue has only been held twice, it shows signs of heating up in terms of scale and specifications, as well as the importance attached by both sides.Before the first round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue in 2009, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton?Clinton said that the dialogue "concentrated the highest-level officials of the two countries on the largest scale, and the scope of the talks was unparalleled." Secretary of State Campbell once again expressed the same view, he believes that by US Secretary of State Hillary?Clinton, US Treasury Secretary Timothy?The US delegation led by Geithner has a luxurious lineup and an unprecedented scale. "This will be the largest visit to China by cabinet and government officials in US history. During the two-day agenda, our entire delegation will have more than 200 officials. They came from various departments of the U.S. government, especially officials from the Department of Defense and the U.S. Pacific Command.” So, what kind of agreements can be reached in such a large-scale and high-level dialogue?
Xi Junyang, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, pointed out in an interview that economic and trade relations and exchange rate issues must be key topics of discussion.Yu Lixin, a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Trade of the Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the appreciation of the renminbi is a double-edged sword, and the appreciation may trigger a more intense trade war between China and the United States.The Reuters article also stated that if the RMB exchange rate is only the focus of the dialogue, the results of the dialogue will be quite disappointing.The spokesperson of the U.S. Treasury Department announced on April 26, 2010 that when U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton attended the Strategic Dialogue from May 24 to 25, they would have a dialogue with Chinese senior officials on the RMB exchange rate. .This shows that even the spokesperson of the Ministry of Finance did not understand the situation at that time.But on May 21, US Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke made no mention of the RMB exchange rate issue that has become a hot topic in recent years in his speech on clean energy at Tsinghua University.When he met with the members of the China-US Chamber of Commerce, facing the representatives' questions, he said that the exchange rate issue would be discussed at the China-US Economic Strategy Meeting. He said that Treasury Secretary Geithner would continue to take a tough stance on this issue.However, no matter how confidently Chinese scholars or American officials say that this meeting is mainly about the exchange rate issue, the results all come to nothing. Why?Readers, please think about it, if the real purpose of the United States is to obtain financial nuclear warheads and new energy sources, why do they discuss exchange rates?If Peigong is killed, is there any point in aiming at Peigong?Since he can get such a big gift of new energy, does he have the nerve to talk about the exchange rate again?Therefore, the United States did not discuss the exchange rate issue with us, which was the first surprise for us. So what is the second surprise that the United States gave us?It was they who generously promised to "consider" China's market economy status.Do readers know how important this is?Over the years, it is because they do not recognize China's market economy status, so they often sanction our export products, such as anti-dumping and so on.Moreover, U.S. sanctions are usually calculated using the market price of a third country. For example, in the Sino-U.S. color TV anti-dumping case, the U.S. chose India as China’s substitute country. You must know that the average raw material price of Indian color TVs is 6 times that of China. The price must be much higher than ours, but the United States has never been unreasonable, and they use this standard to sanction us.And what is the real legal basis for these sanctions?It is because we are not a market economy country.Once the United States recognizes that China is a market economy, there will be no legal basis for sanctions against us.We must know that from 2006 to 2009, the amount involved in the US anti-dumping against China exceeded US$6 billion. With such a large amount, why did the US give up this trump card?Of course, the United States has not really given up. They only said to "consider" giving China a market economy status. They can "consider" for many years, maybe 20 years. Anyway, they have not violated their promises, but China still needs to work harder. , how hard?We have to meet the demands of the United States, and I think this is what they will do. Why did the United States make two such big concessions?I think there is only one reason, and it must be that China has made greater concessions. Hu Zuliu, the managing director of Goldman Sachs, looks a bit like a real estate developer. On May 28, 2010, when he was a guest on Phoenix Satellite TV's "Gold Stone Finance", he said that the research results of new energy between China and the United States should be shared.Hu Zuliu is actually equivalent to a comprador in the Qing Dynasty, who specialized in running errands for foreigners.I was horrified when he said that we should share new energy sources with the United States. On May 30, he said that there is a lot of room for Sino-US energy cooperation, and I think he is trying to create public opinion.Of course, I must admit that he has more influence in the Chinese government than I do. Although he is always talking nonsense, I don’t understand why our government always listens to him, and there are even rumors that he will be appointed as the deputy of the central bank. President. For 15 consecutive years since 1995, China has been the "world champion" of anti-dumping investigations. In the seven years after China joined the WTO in 2001, the total number of anti-dumping investigations against Chinese companies was 392, with an average of 56 cases per year. .Under the current "rules of the game", WTO member states have the right to treat "complete market economy countries" and "non-market economy countries" differently.In the definitions of many countries, Chinese industries with a huge state-owned economy are a priori presumed to be "not in line with the market economy" standard.Therefore, since the date of joining the WTO, China has been defined as a "non-market economy country" for a period of 15 years.This means that before the 15-year "non-market economy status" expires, that is, before 2016, if China wants to change this status quo, it will have to negotiate country by country.According to Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce of China, there are currently about 30 "high-income countries" including the United States, Japan and the European Union, and 3/4 of the world's "high-income countries" do not recognize China's market economy status.In the first round of Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan made a keynote speech, especially urging the US to recognize China's market economy status as soon as possible. On May 25, 2010, with the announcement of the second round of Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue outcomes, the news that the United States "committed to recognize China's market economy status as soon as possible" attracted widespread attention and was called "a major breakthrough" by many media. progress".So, what kind of promise has the United States made?And why are they willing to put down the trump card that can start a trade war?
I found that Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke and President Obama were singing a double reed.Gary Locke is the face of the Chinese, but it is actually a banana with a yellow outside and white inside. This kind of person has a deeper understanding of China and hits harder.Many people also said that Geithner's Chinese is very good and they are very happy.I said don't be happy, Americans who can learn Chinese are not easy to mess with.Think about it, how wise it is to think of learning Chinese in high school and college. Would you learn African languages?And for a banana like Locke, in order to show his fairness, he will definitely go too far against China.So when I went to study in the United States, one of my teachers, Professor Chen Zhaonan, who passed away, told me when I was in college: "Lang Xianping, in the future, if you look for a supervisor in the United States, you must not find a Chinese American. They want to express themselves. It is fair and just, especially tormenting Chinese students. If you are looking for Jews or white Americans, they don’t have any worries in their hearts, they are more frank, and they will take care of foreign students.” I keep this teaching in mind, so my supervisor in the United States Even white Americans, as well as Jews, I definitely dare not look for Chinese Americans, and I think Locke is similar.Locke arrived in Hong Kong on May 16 and left Beijing on May 25. From the Hong Kong Clean Energy and Environmental Action Forum to Tsinghua University's speech, the time, location and audience have changed, but this buddy's The theme of the speech has not changed, that is clean energy.I read his exact words to the readers. Locke said: "I hope that our children and grandchildren will feel very relieved and proud of their predecessors when they look back on the past 150 years. The efforts we have made have made great contributions to the earth." We Chinese like to hear this lie that flatters us the most, and it is ridiculous that China and the United States should work together. If the United States can dominate alone, what reason do they have to come to us? What about working together?Can't the United States do it by itself?And he said that the United States represents the highest level of new energy, including 24 companies including Boeing, DuPont, General Motors, Duke, and First Solar. Technological American Enterprise. On May 27, 2010, the White House released the Obama Administration's National Security Strategy Report.This is Obama's first national security strategy report released 16 months after he took office.The report dropped the Bush administration's "war on terror" and the Bush administration's "preemptive strike" strategy.Most notably, the report states that "at the heart of our efforts is a commitment to revive our economy, the source of American strength."According to the analysis, the "National Security Strategy Report" is a concrete manifestation of Obama's so-called "smart diplomacy".Under this kind of "smart diplomacy" thinking, Obama and Geithner cooperated so tacitly around the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue. Then, Obama and Geithner hope that their double-reed performances will bring benefits to the US economy. what?
Look at how Obama sings double reeds in the United States? The day after the economic strategy meeting was held on May 26, Obama delivered a speech in the United States, saying exactly the opposite.He said that we are far behind in energy technology. Among the top 10 photovoltaic cell manufacturers in the world, 7 are Asian companies, and 3 of the top 5 are Chinese companies. They are Suntech Power, registered in Wuxi, Jiangsu; Green Energy, registered in Baoding, Hebei; Tianhe Solar, registered in Changzhou, Jiangsu.Do you guys sound proud?I think that as long as you are proud of something, there is usually a problem.I found that although the so-called three Chinese companies were registered in China, they were all listed in the United States, and most of the shares were held by American investors.In addition, US institutional investors and funds hold 42% and 48% of the equity of Suntech and Yingli respectively. In my opinion, the purpose of their concerted efforts is to hope that China will pay for the early stage research and development of new energy, and keep the pollution produced in the middle, such as the highly toxic silicon tetrachloride left by refining polysilicon, in China, and finally keep the profits in the United States.This is our real concession in this Sino-US economic dialogue. On May 20, 2010, British Petroleum (BP) crude oil leaked out of the Gulf of Mexico, causing an unprecedented environmental catastrophe.It is because of this crude oil spill that Obama's polls have reached a historical low, so Obama has suffered a lot recently.Even according to media reports, more than half of the people are dissatisfied with Obama's handling of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, which may endanger his re-election in the future, and this crisis is very serious. Think about it, readers, the oil spill occurred on May 20, and May 24 and 25 are the second Sino-US strategic dialogue. Obama sent more than 200 cabinet members to participate in the meeting. Why?You must know that the United States is different from us. Our side has a lot of officials, while the United States has very few officials.They are an elite government, unlike our big government, where officials are everywhere. Do you know the concept of more than 200 people?That is to say, officials from all departments of the US government are almost out in force.I even suspect that there is only one official remaining in the United States, and he is Obama. On April 20, 2010, the "Deepwater Horizon" oil drilling platform in the US Gulf of Mexico exploded and sank to the bottom of the sea two days later. The resulting oil spill unfortunately became the worst environmental disaster in US history.According to estimates on June 15, the amount of oil spilled at this time was between 35,000 and 60,000 barrels per day.Since the afternoon of June 3, people in more than 50 cities across the United States have taken to the streets to launch a protest called "Catch BP".The crude oil spill caused by the sinking of the drilling platform not only brought a heavy blow to BP, but the US government was also criticized for failing to stop the leak in time.Not only that, on June 7, US President Obama Tangy said that the crude oil spill will have a substantial impact on the US economy, and this impact will continue. On June 15, 2010, U.S. President Barack Obama expressed his opinion to the media, saying, "The impact of the oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico on the United States is comparable to the '9? What is the relationship between the oil spill crisis and the Chinese economy?
If you were Obama, what would you do if you encountered such an oil spill?It is best to give the public a good and fast report card on energy policy.US solar cell giant First Solar recently won the approval of the Chinese government to build the world's largest solar production base in Ordos, Inner Mongolia. The project covers an area of 64 square kilometers, slightly larger than Manhattan, New York.The production scale is about 2 million kilowatts of power generation, which is equivalent to two coal-fired power plants in China.Take the Solyndra company that Obama once inspected as an example. This company received a financial guarantee loan of 535 million US dollars in one year. What is the return of this company to Obama? 3,000 jobs, 1,000 of which are full-time. How much production capacity does Snlyndra want to use with a financially guaranteed loan of US$535 million? 500,000 kilowatts.Therefore, First Solar's Ordos project is four times larger than the Solyndra project, which is equivalent to saving US$2.14 billion in financial guarantee loans for the US government.Moreover, if a solar power station of the same scale is built in the United States, it will cost 5 billion to 6 billion U.S. dollars, but what about building it in China?The United States saved 5 billion! 6 billion dollars invested!Calculated in this way, the Americans have saved a total of 7.14 billion to 8.14 billion US dollars in fishing investment.In addition, since all solar energy production facilities are located in the United States, this will create 12,000 jobs in the United States, of which 4,000 are full-time jobs.And nuclear power. In March 2009, we imported 4 units from Westinghouse Electric, two of which are in Sanmen, Zhejiang, and two in Haiyang, Shandong.The card we play at the nuclear power plant is called the "World Card".We have Canadian equipment called Qingshan Yamazaki; Russian equipment called Tianwan; French nuclear power plant, which is the follow-up project of Daya Bay, and now we have American Westinghouse Electric AP1000. In the second round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue, the outcome that the nuclear industry is most concerned about is undoubtedly the "Memorandum of Understanding on Further Strengthening the Nuclear Safety Cooperation of Westinghouse AP1000 Nuclear Reactor" between the National Nuclear Safety Administration of China and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.According to relevant media reports, since the AP1000 technology has not been implemented in any nuclear power plant, it has been controversial since it decided to spend huge sums of money to introduce the technology.However, some academicians of the two academies told the media that the purchase of foreign third-generation nuclear power technology is entirely an expedient measure adopted by the government due to the large trade surplus with Europe and the United States. After 2004, as Western countries resumed nuclear power investment under the dual pressure of high oil prices and carbon emission reductions, global nuclear power is ushering in a new round of concentrated production.China has also started to promote nuclear power since 2009, and its huge market will inevitably attract the attention of global economic forces.
Do you feel weird?According to our own publicity, Westinghouse Electric's first unit AP1000 will be set up in China.Why are we so awesome in China?Even our media felt very good, and commented that the United States did not have the first unit until 2016, and we have the first unit now.Should you be elated or terrified at this point?If it is the most advanced nuclear power technology in the world, why is the first unit not in the United States but in China?Don't you think these are suspicious?Why does the United States give us the best?We feel too good about it.I think this is what I said earlier - paying for the early research and development in the United States. First of all, let's see if its technology is advanced. From 2005 to 2006, the U.S. government reviewed the technology of AP1000, and then it failed to pass the test and was revised again. In 2007, it was applied again, and it was only approved by the U.S. government in 2009.But we started construction in March 2009, when did we introduce it? We started bidding in September 2004, and when the bidding results were announced in December 2006, Westinghouse became the final winner. In March 2007, it was decided to build four units in Sanmen, Zhejiang and Haiyang, Shandong.Do you see it?The technology of the United States only passed the test in 2009, and we passed the technical review in 2006 before other people's technology passed the test. And a total of 7 states in the United States want to use this device, including South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and so on.But as of 2010, it is still in the stage of design and site selection, and a hearing is still needed to see if the local people agree with it.Therefore, for Americans, it takes two and a half years for design and site selection, and one year for ordinary people's hearings, adding up to three and a half years.Why?for safety.And look at us, it took just over three months to pass.So we have to admit that our Chinese nation is the most daring nation, we are fearless, and we are not afraid of nuclear energy disasters.Even when other people's technology was immature and before the US government passed it, China passed it three years ahead, because we "predicted" that this technology could pass the test ahead of the world.As a result, the unit we are going to start building has not yet been built in the United States. In the United States, it is still undergoing environmental assessment, design, and site selection.What's more ridiculous?Among so many nuclear power plants, there are 6 that have not yet held a hearing, and only one has actually held a hearing. We plan to use AP1000 to unify China's nuclear power construction technology route. In the future, the technology of these 4 units can be copied to other unlimited units. We hope to build a nuclear power capacity of 40 million kilowatts in 2020.I found that the idea of "Great Leap Forward" came again, let's see how to make our nation smart.Please think about it, the report of the International Energy Agency is very clear that it takes 50 years for a country to completely localize a nuclear power standard. Is it because we say that we can copy it?And we have also engaged in a lot of joint venture cars in the past 30 years, right?But after 30 years of joint venture, have we mastered the core technology?Building a car is easier than building a nuclear power plant.You haven’t mastered the core technology of making cars after 30 years of joint venture, and within 3 years of building nuclear power, we will make a “Great Leap Forward” and completely copy it to China. By 2020, all of China will use AP1000?I think we experts are crazy. At 10:28 am on June 21, 2010, the construction of the No. 2 nuclear island of the Shandong Haiyang Nuclear Power Project officially started. So far, the construction of the world's first four AP1000 units has officially started in China.The AP1000 technology of Westinghouse Corporation of the United States has been evaluated by Chinese experts as the most advanced, safest and most economical third-generation nuclear power technology in the world.Just because they believe in its safety and economy, relevant experts said, "In the application of AP1000 technology, China was not only the first to eat crabs, but also ate 4 crabs in batches for the first time."For the 11 nuclear power units currently in operation in China, the nuclear power technologies are all second-generation or second-generation improved technologies. Regarding the imported AP1000 third-generation technology, the relevant nuclear power companies have designed a "three-step" strategy: the first step is foreign-based , the Chinese side fully participates; the second step, the Chinese side takes the lead, and the foreign side supports; the third step, comprehensive independent innovation, forming independent intellectual property rights.So, how to treat the localization of AP1000 and related economic benefits?
If we really decide to promote this immature technology, it's better to be cheap.Although the international bidding plan was originally submitted to the central government for approval at 1,800-1,900 US dollars per kilowatt, the State Nuclear Technology Corporation responsible for the introduction has asked the owner to prepare to take over the project at a price of more than 2,000 US dollars per kilowatt, and it also included a disturbing Condition - "Uncapped".It should be known that due to the unpredictable technical risks of AP1000, the final actual cost is likely to be higher.According to Wen Hongjun, director of the Economic Professional Committee of China Nuclear Power Dynamics Society, published in "Business Weekly" on October 20, 2008, the article "Third-generation nuclear power is becoming more expensive" introduced that in the three AP1000 nuclear power plants in the United States, the investment budget per kilowatt is 4300 Two nuclear power plants using French EPR technology have started construction. Due to repeated delays in the construction period of the Finnish project, its budget has climbed to about 4,200 U.S. dollars per kilowatt. Due to serious quality problems, it was ordered by the nuclear safety agency to suspend work for rectification. It took nearly a month to resume work, and the cost increase was inevitable. Compared with the expensive foreign third-generation nuclear power plants, the self-designed Qinshan Phase II nuclear power plant at the same level costs $1,360 per kilowatt; the Liaoning Hongyanhe nuclear power plant with four CRP1000 units costs $1,662 per kilowatt.These real data show that the cost of introducing nuclear power will be at least three times that of self-construction. Since 1978, my country has decided to start from a high starting point, purchase advanced nuclear power technology from abroad, and promote the development of domestic nuclear power.China Guangdong Nuclear Power, which undertakes this historical task, has initially formed its own engineering management and operation management team by the time Unit 1 of the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant was completed and put into operation through introduction, digestion, absorption, and innovation in 1994. Experience has been accumulated in the autonomy and localization of nuclear power plants.By the time the first phase of Ling'ao Nuclear Power Plant was under construction in May 1997, China's nuclear power had already started initial independent innovation.In less than 30 years, through gradual progress, continuous improvement, and independent innovation, my country has formed a second-generation improved nuclear power reactor type of one million kilowatts with its own brand——CPR1000, and its overall performance has reached the advanced level of international nuclear power plants of the same type in service. The localization rate of reactor-type equipment has reached 60% to 70%. Then, after the second-generation reactor type, does my country have more advanced nuclear power technology?
Although I have always been skeptical about China's industrial innovation, I must say that China is more advanced than the United States in terms of nuclear energy, because we have mastered the fourth generation technology.Does the reader know what the difference is?核能的前三代技术的基础是一样的，和第四代完全不同。我用一个我们老百姓都听得懂的例子打个比方，前三代核能可以被理解为油墨打印机，而第四代叫做激光打印机，就差这么多。讲得更专业一点，前三代核能技术要插入控制棒才能降低核反应堆的高温，但是，前苏联的切尔诺贝利核电站和美国的三里岛核电站都曾经发生过核电厂爆炸案，原因就是控制棒本身被核能的高温熔化了，所以发生核电站爆炸的事故。而我们掌握的第四代核能完全不用控制棒，而叫做高温气冷堆，利用空气冷却。 2002年，《核工程和设计》上发表了一篇文章，专门讲我们清华大学的一个项目，叫10兆瓦模块式高温气冷堆。这个高温气冷堆概念的原创者之一叫娄纳，他说了一句话，高温气冷堆是全世界第一个“固有安全”反应堆。What does that mean?就是说，这是第一个第四代反应堆。虽然它非常小，但重要的是，它的所有部件和那些250兆瓦以上的原型堆，设计原理都是一样的，各位懂我的意思吧。到了2004年9月30日，世界上的第一个模块式高温气冷堆，在北京搞了一个核安全的实验演示。当时，30多个国家的原子能专家一起看了这个演示。演示的名字很长，叫做“不插入控制棒下反应堆丧失冷却”实验。各位，这是全世界有史以来第一次用运行中的反应堆来做的演示，这说明什么？说明我们的核能技术排在世界前列。第四代核电技术国际论坛一共确定了6种堆型，由美国主导的叫做“超高温气冷堆”（VHTR），美国2001年的能源政策报告中提到的核电技术就是这个。等到清华大学的高温气冷堆建成之后，美国国会代表，还有美国的能源部长，都纷纷跑过来参观。 其实也就是说，我们的研究水平是非常厉害的，结果呢？我们竟然在第二次中美战略与经济对话中，同意与美国核安全管理当局合作，让美方参与中国首个工业规模的高温气冷堆示范工程的安全评审工作，共享安全评审方面的经验。而作为回报，美方愿提供他们有关评审AP1000的资料的经验。但是你别忘了，美国到现在都还没有一台真正运营起来的AP1000呢！换句话说，就是我们同意把我们最先进的第四代核能技术拿来和美国人分享，美国给我们的回报呢？是继续把美国现在还没有开发出来的第三代核能技术率先在中国做活体实验，井且由我们出钱让美国人来评审美国现代技术，搞到最后，我们就这样把一个8000亿元市场的份额拱手让给美国了，换来AP1000这么个已经落后的技术。我怎么都搞不明白，我们为什么总是喜欢干这种愚蠢的事情！ 其实看不下去的不止我一个，现在各界也都对这个事情进行批评并提出了两个疑问。 第一个疑问，难道我们非得进口吗？我来作个对比吧，2009年12月28日，韩国财团击败其他强大对手，拿下了为阿联酋建造民用核电站的合同，这个合同价值204亿美元，是全球最大的核招标项目之一。此外，后续的服务还会有200亿美元的合同收入。这次我们中国从美国买的也是四个核电站，对吧？韩国卖给阿联酋的也是四个。人家韩国通过这笔生意赚了400亿美元，再看看我们，不仅没挣到什么钱，还因此放弃了8000亿元的市场，这意味着什么？意味着我们连阿联酋都不如。另外一点，透过这个招标，我们也能看出来日本的高深之处。表面上看是韩国人夺标对吧？但是别忘了，这个韩国财团除了包括韩国电力公司、现代建设、三星和斗山重工外，还包括美国的西屋电气，而美国的西屋电气由谁控股？日本东芝重工，西屋电气77％的股权都是它持有的，当初日本人收购这些股权的时候，不过才54亿美元而已。再看看另外两个竞争者，分别是法国阿海珐和美国通用电气牵头的财团。Actually?阿海珐是和日本三菱重工合作的，而通用电气是和日立合作的。好，就算是我们喜欢美国技术，可为什么非要谈判呢？一通乱七八糟的谈判下来，结果就是送给美国8000亿元。 2009年8月5日，新华社发布消息称，原中核集团党组书记、总经理康日新因严重违纪，正在接受组织调查。2010年1月15日，康日新被开除党籍和公职。康日新领导下的中核集团在国资委中央企业名录中排第一位，有着“头号央企”的美誉。康日新因此被称为“中国核掌门”。康日新落马事件引发了中国核工业的深度反思。各方分析认为，我国在一些核电重大项目的招投标上，尽管制度设计得极为严密，但“人”的因素仍能发挥作用。中国在20多年的核电发展过程中，技术路线一直摇摆不定，这给了国外核电巨头鲸吞中国核电建设庞大蛋糕的机会，而我国自己拥有的核电技术知识产权却被日益边缘化。中国核电行业目前正处于体制性变革的十字路口，那么，行业的健康发展有没有更有效的模式，哪些国家的做法可以为我们提供借鉴呢？
第二个疑问。为什么我们能签下如此丧权辱国的条约？我看腐败也是个重要原因。我给大家看个资料吧，这种腐败的东西太多了，我根本记不全。一是2007年年底，因核电招标中涉嫌泄密，中国技术进出口总公司原总裁蒋新生被中纪委“双规”。二是2008年年底，中国广东核电集团原副总经理沈如刚及集团20多人涉案被查。三是2009年8月5日，中国核工业集团公司党组书记、总经理康日新因涉嫌严重违纪，接受组织调查。2010年1月15日，康日新被开除党籍和公职。有很多人对第二次对话抱有很大的期望，还期待能通过这次对话把这些贪官误国签下的条约都修正过来呢，结果呢？我们大家不是一般的失望了，这些人可恶得很，非但没有拿回我们应该拿回的东西，却说要继续加强两国在AP1000项目上的合作！ 这些批评虽然中肯，但还是没有理解到问题的核心。美国发起贸易大战，计划在2010年4月15日将中国列入汇率操纵国，其实就是把贸易大战当做一种手段，汇率大战才是真正的目的。而我们为了避免汇率大战，就必须让出金融核弹头以及庞大的新能源市场。我很理解我们政府，因为我们别无选择，美国就是个新帝国主义国家，唉，还是毛泽东理解美国，他说，帝国主义的本质是不会改变的。看看美国商务部长骆家辉访问日本的时候，怎么回答日本的媒体的，他说，“美国经过多方面的考虑，认为目前条件还不成熟，所以不考虑给予中国市场经济地位了。”正如同我所想的，他们毫不犹豫地就把这个大礼物收回去了。2010年6月10日，在美国参议院听证会上，美国财政部长盖特纳受到议员的炮轰，批评他没有对人民币施压。他的回答挺熟悉，他说，人民币汇率是中国的内政，他们不应该怎么怎么。参议院气得要立法压迫人民币升值。美国总统奥巴马竟然暗示这个立法的提案会在众议院被否决。他们两个人怎么会那么够意思呢？道理很简单，吃人家的嘴软、拿人家的手短，他们就是脸皮再厚，也得顾及点吃相，不能太难看了吧。不过，奥巴马绝不是省油的灯，6月18日，奥巴马写给6月26和27日召开的20国峰会的其他领导一封私人信件，敦促他们在峰会上对人民币施加压力。哈哈，自己不好意思施压，所以请别的国家对人民币施加压力。我相信是中美双方唱双簧，6月19日，中国人民银行宣布采行更具弹性的汇率调整措施，自6月21日开始，人民币缓慢升值了，所以免去了峰会上被“围剿”的场面。一个月之后的7月底，人民币由6.83升值到了6.77。7月8日，汇率大战结束，一切正如同我所料，美国财政部宣布，7月15日的审判日，美国决定不将中国列入汇率操纵国，因为我们已经是赔了两个夫人（一个夫人是金融核弹头，另一个夫人是新能源）又折兵（汇率还要升值）啊。 2008年11月25日日经平均指数为8323点，若将2007年7月最后一周的日经指数的平均值16978点定为100，则2008年11月25日的股价水平仅为49.0。2008年11月25日道琼斯平均指数是8497点，若将2007年7月最后一周的道琼斯平均指数13182点定为100，则2008年11月25日的股价水平为64.3。 由此可见，日本的股价跌幅远高于美国。当然，这种计算结果在不同时间段之间进行比较时，会得出不同的值。尽管如此，选取任何相同的两个时点进行比较，都会得出日本的股价跌幅大于美国的结论。 为什么日本的股价会如此暴跌呢？以下几种说法很值得我们思考。 其一是“对岸失火”说。但如果仅是“对岸失火”，日本的股价并不会如此暴跌。从现在发生的一切来看，问题的实质不仅仅是“美国的次级贷”问题，而是日本经济本质的问题。因此预计今后日本产生的问题会比美国更严重，日本股价跌幅会更大。只要我们能虚心坦诚地接受市场传递的信号，必然会得出这样的结论。 其二是“外资出逃”说（因改革意愿不强而引发外国投资者出逃，进而导致股价下跌）。外国投资者出逃是事实，但日本企业业绩恶化才是真正原因，并不是因为改革意愿不强（“改革”只是政治口号，并不能改革日本的企业和日本经济的本质）。再有，因外国投资者卖出日本股票后将资金带回本国，这会导致日元贬值，而实际情况是—日元还在升值。因此，这种说法也过于草率，要理解日本股价暴跌的原因，还是有必要考察日本经济的运行机理，因为这和国际资本流动紧密相关。 自20世纪80年代以来，世界经济经历了黑色星期一、亚洲金融危机、长期资本管理公司的衰亡、IT泡沫破裂等重大危机事件。这些事件对于危机的当事者来说是非常严重，但从世界的大版图来看只是一个局部事件。90年代日本经济泡沫破裂也是二战后日本最大的经济危机，但对世界经济的影响并不大。与日本的经济泡沫破裂相比，此次危机对世界经济的影响更深、波及面更广。 本文摘自［日］野口悠纪雄的《日本的反省：依赖美国的罪与罚》