Chapter 8 6. Eastern Europe: Every family has difficult scriptures

More than 20 years ago, Eastern European countries chose the path of complete Westernization, while China chose to continue to follow the path it identified.The two different choices naturally produced different results.In the past 20 years, I have traveled to almost all Eastern European countries, and had extensive contacts and conversations with various people in Eastern Europe. Naturally, I have some insights and sighs.I remember that in the summer of 2006, I watched a one-act play performed by Belarusian actors in Russian in the German town of Em at the foot of the Alps. It was a real one-act play performed by only one actor.The performance was not performed in a theater, but in the coffee shop on the first floor of the hotel where I was staying. Fifty or sixty spectators watched the performance while drinking coffee.The name of the play is "The Generation Wearing Cowboys".Western countries regard Belarus as the last remaining "authoritarian" country in Europe, and this drama is "anti-authoritarian" and is banned in Belarus, so it is now touring around Europe with the funding of the European Union.Because of the English subtitles, I understood the play.

The plot is very simple: a young Belarusian man yearns for the West very much. At first he collects colorful plastic bags used by Western tourists and shows them off to his friends, and then he begins to resell Western jeans.Once, when exchanging dollars with foreigners, he was arrested by the police for questioning.In the end, he participated in anti-government demonstrations and was thrown into prison.He lay in the prison and had many dreams, dreaming of the beautiful fields outside the prison, of the thick walls of the prison falling down, and of the young Czechs who set themselves on fire in Wenceslas Square in Prague to protest the Soviet invasion.Finally, he walked out of the prison, chewing gum, holding in his right hand a long wooden pole with a denim shirt hanging on it, symbolizing the anti-authoritarian flag, and walking in the front of the parade.

After the 40-minute play ended, the actor and I chatted while drinking coffee. Seeing that I was from China, he asked curiously, "Can I ask you a frank question?" I said, "The more frank you are, the more Good." "Is the situation in China the same as that described in this drama?" I smiled: "It's really different. You may not know: China is the world's largest denim production base, and people in China who are willing to hold US dollars are also It is dropping sharply, because the dollar is becoming less and less valuable." He felt a little incredible, and I suggested that he had better go to China to see for himself.But I also said to him: "I understand your story. China also experienced the extreme shortage of commodities and the extremely boring years of cultural life. Many people imagined the West as infinitely beautiful at that time, but that era has passed. China and Eastern Europe has adopted different reform methods, each with their own advantages and disadvantages, and I personally think that China’s method is slightly better.” He looked at me dubiously, and then said, “I must visit China in the future.”

There were many reasons for the drastic changes in Eastern Europe, but for most ordinary people, the most direct reason was the lack of daily consumer goods and the boring cultural life.I visited Romania with a Chinese leader in 1986. At that time, Romanian TV programs were very monotonous, mainly focusing on Ceausescu’s activities and endless meetings. The TVs were also made in Romania, and the quality was very low. , The TV set in the State Guest House can only be seen in the fog.I also found time to go to the busiest department store in Bucharest. I saw people queuing up to buy daily necessities. When I got closer, customers were snapping up Maxam toothpaste produced in Shanghai.Later, I had the opportunity to drive from Vienna to Bratislava, the capital of Slovakia. The moment I entered the country, I felt a strong contrast: the street lights were dim, the roads were narrow, and people dressed in rustic clothes. This is the first time I saw so many poor people in Europe. Three or five Slovak men in sloppy woolen coats squeezed into the railway station restaurant to drink potato soup and eat black bread. The largest central station restaurant in the capital of Slovakia provides such a kind of food. "Dishes" that don't whet your appetite.The situation in Poland at that time was better, but there were fewer types of consumer products and outdated styles. The shop windows were rudimentary, and fruit shops painted some apples on the windows.

At that time, socialism in Eastern Europe, although there were "iron rice bowls" and various welfare systems (this is why many people miss that era now), the overall economic strength and material living standards were obviously inferior to those of the West, as depicted in the previous Belarusian drama. Plastic bags, chewing gum, and dollars in the West are all symbols of a more superior material life in the West. China also had a similar experience in the 1970s and 1980s.The subsequent political crisis in Eastern Europe also stemmed from the deteriorating economic situation.Beginning in 1980, the Polish economy went downhill and unemployment increased sharply, leading to a wave of strikes that swept across the country.Although Eastern European countries carried out economic reforms to varying degrees in the 1970s and 1980s, the overall effect was limited.Compared with the West, the gap in their material life is still widening, which has aroused strong dissatisfaction among the people of these countries.This also gives the West a great psychological advantage and political discourse power.

There were many political jokes about the scarcity of supplies in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe at that time. A classic joke that was repeatedly quoted was: One day, Ivan, a collective farmer, caught a big fish in the river and returned home happily and said to his wife: "Look, we have fried fish!" The wife said, "There is no oil." "Then cook it!" "There is no pot." "Then bake it!" in the river.The fish paddled in the water for a while, jumped up, and shouted excitedly: "Long live Comrade Brezhnev!" From this perspective, China has undergone earth-shaking changes in the past 30 years, from extreme scarcity of materials to unprecedented economic prosperity and people. The dramatic improvement in living standards cannot be overestimated.Deng Xiaoping once said: Without economic development, without reform and opening up, without improving people's living standards, there can only be a dead end.This is roughly how Eastern Europe ended up dead.

Of course, there are deep-seated reasons for the successive collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe.For example, the regimes in these countries have inherent shortcomings: almost all of these regimes (except Yugoslavia and Albania) came to power after World War II with the support of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union headed by Stalin, and the domestic mass base is weak.In 1989, Deng Xiaoping explained the difference between China and these countries to Thai Prime Minister Chachai who visited China in this way: "The People's Republic of China was established after 22 years of fighting. It is impossible to win. Such a country can be easily defeated? Impossible. Not only does no one in the country have this ability, but also no one in the world has this ability, and no one in the superpowers or rich countries has this ability.” , It is easy to lose, this is the law in life, and it is also the law in politics.

In addition, the economic reforms in Eastern Europe generally did not go as far as in China, and their thinking was rigid. They still failed to break through the ideology that the market economy equals capitalism, and most of their political discourse was wholesale from Soviet textbooks. There were not many original things of their own. It is not attractive and persuasive to ordinary people in the country. In 1989, Gorbachev, the leader of the Soviet Union who controlled the politics of Eastern Europe, lost his position and was powerless in the face of powerful Western discourse, and was completely defeated by Western discourse. So far, it is expected that the communist regimes in Eastern Europe have stepped down one after another. up.He did not do well economically, lost political confidence, and was naturally abandoned by his own people in the end.

It has been more than 20 years since the drastic changes in Eastern Europe.How are these countries doing?How are the people living?What is the quality of their democracy?Are there any lessons that China can learn from?I am very concerned about these issues.Since 2000, I have traveled to almost all Eastern European countries.Generally speaking, among Eastern European countries, Albania and Moldova are still typical developing countries. They have adopted the Western model politically, but are still very backward economically. These two countries are still among the poorest countries in Europe. In 2001, I took a plane from Istanbul, Turkey to visit Albania, and sitting next to me was a Saudi Arabian engineer in his 50s named Abdullah.He said he wanted to visit Tirana, and if possible, he planned to buy a house where he could retire in his later years.I asked why Albania was chosen, and he said that Albania is a Muslim country with cheap house prices and may join the European Union in the future.I nodded with a smile, understanding his innocence.When we arrived in Tirana, we waited patiently in a long queue for the Albanian border inspectors to manually register visitors one by one. Because there was no computer, everything was very slow. Abdullah shook his head at me and said: " My idea of ​​buying a house here is beginning to waver.” When we got on the potholed road leading to Tirana together in an old taxi, he said, “It’s so boring, I’m leaving tomorrow.” I was on the ground. Lana happily stayed for 3 days and went to the port city of Duras.Albanians are warm and hospitable. Many people still remember China's aid to Albania, and even sang to me "Sailing the sea depends on the helmsman".

The rest of Eastern Europe is much more developed.Before the upheaval in 1989, most Eastern European countries were already middle-level industrialized countries, characterized by the fact that the rural population was generally less than 30%. Among them, East Germany, the Czech Republic, and Hungary were richer, and Slovakia, Romania, and Hungary were poorer. Bulgaria.After drastic market-oriented reforms in these countries, their economies have finally recovered and developed considerably, especially the eight countries that have joined the European Union (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania), But in the financial tsunami that began in 2008, it was hit hard again.Among these 8 countries, I visited 7, but only went to their capitals, so it is difficult to make a comprehensive comparison with China.It should be said that the capitals of these countries are quite prosperous, and people's living standards have improved a lot compared with 20 years ago. Various financial aids from the European Union have produced certain effects.However, if these cities are compared with China's coastal cities such as Shanghai, or with rapidly developing inland cities such as Chongqing, whether it is the urban infrastructure, the prosperity of commerce, the consumption level of citizens, the scale of new buildings, In terms of style and quality, as well as people's spiritual outlook, Shanghai and Chongqing are clearly superior.Generally speaking, I think China's developed regions and some large cities in the interior have caught up with or even surpassed the level of most cities in Eastern Europe, but it will take more time for China as a whole to reach the level of Eastern Europe today.

The biggest gap between China and Eastern Europe lies in the civic culture.Whether it is queuing up for errands or driving on the road, they are more disciplined than us.In terms of civic culture, Eastern Europe has a longer history than ours. Cities like Prague, Budapest, and Riga had already formed a fairly large middle class before World War II. There are high-end apartments, villas, and cafes everywhere. Citizen cultural traditions continue to this day. As for the political development of these countries since 1989, I can only say that the road has not been smooth, and the results have not been satisfactory. It can even be said that every family has difficult scriptures.This also proves once again that the construction of a new political system is a very complicated and arduous process, and it will take time to gradually improve, and it may even be delayed due to various reasons. Over the past 20 years, despite the large amount of funds invested by the European Union and the guidance of experts, the framework of constitutionalism in these countries has been established, and the form of democracy has also existed, but there are not many real democrats.A large number of selfish politicians are vying for power and profit there, causing people in Eastern Europe to be generally disappointed with their governments, and even the European Union is quite disappointed with the democratic process in these countries.Whether it is the common people in the country or the European Union, they all thought that as long as the political system changes, everything will be better, but the result is not easy.Revolutions are romantic, exciting, and passionate, but after the revolution, people find that old habits and behaviors are still deeply rooted, or even unchanged, and deep-seated changes in society are very slow. According to the poll released by Eurobarometer, an authoritative European organization in early 2008, people in most Eastern European countries have very low trust in their own governments: 16% in Bulgaria, 17% in Poland, 19% in Latvia, 21% in Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic , far lower than today's China.Among the old members of the European Union, many exclaimed that they were deceived. Some Eastern European countries carried out reforms in order to join the European Union. the European Union.But what is interesting is that this poll also shows that although the people of these Eastern European countries do not trust the governments they elected, they have considerable trust in the EU. This level of trust generally exceeds 50%, surpassing the people of the old EU member states. trust in the EU. This is a very interesting phenomenon.The governments of these countries in Eastern Europe are theoretically elected directly by the people, but the people end up distrusting them. The European Union is a non-elected institution, but the people in Eastern Europe trust it.In fact, the same is true in the United States. People trusted the unelected Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan far more than the elected members of the US Congress.As far as Eastern Europe is concerned, this is not a bad thing, because the elected governments often disappoint soon after they come to power, and there is an EU on top of them, and these opportunistic politicians sometimes have to restrain themselves.This kind of political arrangement with a "hat" on it is often not bad: the king of Thailand, the European Union above Eastern European countries, and the central government above Hong Kong have all played unique and irreplaceable roles at some critical times, that is, As Deng Xiaoping said when talking about Hong Kong, some intervention may still be necessary, the key depends on whether these interventions are beneficial to the interests of Hong Kong people. Taiwan should also be mentioned here.As we all know, during Chen Shui-bian’s 8 years in power, he has engaged in populism, ethnic divisions, and the two-bullet scandal. Corruption has continued unabated. However, the EIU under the British "Economist" published a democratic quality assessment index , that the quality of democracy in Eastern European countries is generally inferior to that of Taiwan during the Chen Shui-bian period.This evaluation ranks Taiwan’s democracy at 32nd place, while among the Eastern European countries mentioned above, only the Czech Republic surpasses Taiwan, ranking 18th, and the others are all behind Taiwan: Estonia is 33rd, Hungary is 38th, and Slovakia is 41st. , Latvia 43rd, Poland 46th, Bulgaria 49th, Romania 50th (see EIU Democracy Index 2006).If this assessment is fair, one can imagine the quality of democracy in these Eastern European countries in transition. Even the relatively well-performing Czech Republic has serious problems with the quality of its democracy.I visited Prague at the end of 2006. When I arrived at the hotel on December 23, I turned on the TV and realized that the Czech Republic had been without a government for 100 days.The two factions in the parliament are evenly matched and will not make concessions to each other.And politicians have been caught up in corruption scandals one by one.First, the Prime Minister was involved in a corruption scandal and resigned; his successor was dismissed by the parliament, but refused to step down for a few weeks; the one behind him, Mirek Topolanek, was appointed in October, but because of Parliament voted 101 to 100, and his appointment was never approved.The Czech Republic is a small country with a relatively developed economy and a population of 10 million. If it is a developing country, if this happens, the country may collapse. Polish politics is also very interesting: the 2005 general election elected Kaczynski as president, but soon his twin brother became prime minister.I met EU officials in Brussels, and they talked about the twins in private, always with a bit of bitter embarrassment.A newspaper in Brussels simply published a cartoon, teasing the two brothers: Poland keeps cloning new leaders who look exactly the same one after another, which makes people laugh.In fact, it doesn’t matter, the key is that the policies pursued by the brothers are a headache for Europe: they first held high the banner of nationalism, and wanted to settle accounts with Germany that had not yet been settled after World War II. Later, they proposed to ban homosexuality in Poland and restore the death penalty. Proposals such as expanding the influence of the Catholic Church made the old members of the EU at a loss, because many countries in the EU have regarded the protection of homosexual rights as a core human right. A Polish political scientist said to me: Our government represents the extreme right forces in Poland, engages in "political correctness", and proposes a new bill to track down everyone's performance in the past Communist Party and catch the collaborators of the Communist Party The opposition party said that this is tantamount to McCarthyism, and I am afraid that it will affect the future of hundreds of thousands of teachers, scholars, experts and other professionals in Poland today. Slovakia is a rapidly changing country in Eastern Europe.Ivan Miklos, a former deputy prime minister of Slovakia who is very talkative, said to me: "Reform is not easy. I fully understand China's achievements today. This is hard-won." Miklos is an economist. Served twice as Deputy Prime Minister in the Slovak government, he became famous because of the introduction of a unified 19% income tax (both corporate and personal income taxes were reduced to 19%).He told me: "One of the experiences of our reform is that many things must be done first and then said. If you say it first, you can't do it." But even so, in the 2005 election, the party he represented lost In the general election, the anti-reform party won.But the opposition did not come to power to overturn all the reforms (as they had sworn to in the election), but only the previous government's "unpopular healthcare reforms".For the new government elected in Slovakia, the most disgusting thing is the European Union, because the new cabinet includes some extreme nationalists, such as Jan Slota, who openly hates the two main minorities in Slovakia: - Hungarians and Gypsies, Called the Hungarian minority "ugly, bow-legged, suspected Mongoloids on hideous horses".Miklosh told me: "Fortunately, there is an EU above, so that these radicals have not dared to go too far in terms of national policy." Hungary is generally considered to be a relatively successful country in transition.But in 2007, controversy erupted over the "liar prime minister" Gyurcani.The young prime minister admitted in an internal speech to the ruling party in May 2007: "We screwed up, not a little bit badly, but badly! There is no European country that has done more stupidly than us... in our In the 4 years in power, the government has not produced a record that we can be proud of. How do we account for what we have done to the voters? We have taken every step to ensure that this secret will not be leaked before the election. In the past 2 years , we have been lying." This passage was later disclosed on the Internet, causing an uproar in Hungary.Originally, everyone thought that Hungary was the most successful transition among Eastern European countries, but it turned out not to be the case.The Hungarian people have long complained about the stagnant living standards, especially the austerity of finances and the increase of tax rates in order to join the euro zone, which has caused widespread dissatisfaction.As a result, several days of riots began in this country, which was originally the most peaceful country in Eastern Europe. Tens of thousands of protesters in the capital sat in front of the Budapest parliament and asked the prime minister to resign.The price level in Hungary is comparable to that of Western European countries, but the general pension is only 200 euros per month.Regarding the political chaos in Hungary, the Hungarian historian Heisler made a very good comment: Hungarians lack "political culture and the wisdom of compromise", so today's Hungary is "a deeply divided society". Bulgaria and Romania are relatively backward countries among the new members of the EU. Although they have joined the EU, they are still far from the standards of the EU, especially the problem of corruption is very serious.A friend in Sofia told me: "Our biggest political problem is official corruption, and our biggest social problem is brain drain." Before Bulgaria joined the EU, it carried out many reforms to save face. After joining, the reformers were kicked out tower.One of my graduate students in Bulgaria told me that the new president was the former Communist Party. “Putin gave him a phone call, and he signed a gas pipeline agreement with Russia. The European Union was very unhappy.” Romania’s political scandals continued. Romanian President Basescu was ousted by opposition from three-quarters of the congressmen, but the president soon passed a referendum to keep his seat.The Romanian political struggle is the main reason why the common people are disappointed with the government. Lithuania is a country I like better, and it is also one of the few countries in Eastern Europe where you can see a smile.Vilnius is a vibrant city in a country known as the Spain of the Baltics.A thorny issue facing Lithuania is how to manage ethnic relations with the Russians. "We generally have no problem getting along with Russians. If there is any disagreement, it is that they are unwilling to learn our language. This is disrespect for us." A local scholar said to me, "During the Soviet Union, If Russians want to make a feature film, if they want to choose a European background, they have to go to the three Baltic countries, and if they want to taste authentic European coffee, they have to come to Vilnius or Riga.” Russians are actually second-class citizens in these countries. The right to vote requires being a Lithuanian citizen to vote, and to become a citizen you must pass the local language test, and the language test is very difficult. The government uses this method to restrict the naturalization of Russians. “We cannot give them the right to vote, otherwise we will lose our country again,” the scholar told me.Democracy is very real.The proportion of foreigners in Switzerland accounts for one-fifth of the population, and they do not have the right to vote, because they are afraid of changing the nature of the country. The first impression of Latvia is that there is no smile.The waiter in the store, the hairdresser in the barber shop, the receptionist in the hotel, none of them smiled.In addition, the proportion of women is significantly higher than that of men.My tour guide Lina said, "Foreigners have ruled us for more than 800 years in history, so people here have fewer smiles. There are fewer men because of past wars, and there are people who died of drinking and driving. Our men Mentally immature, the suicide rate of men is one of the highest in the world." A Latvian newspaper editor told me, "In the three Baltic countries, we Latvians complain a lot. All ordinary people complain about politicians, and all politicians complain about the European Union. .Among all Eastern European countries, Latvia has the lowest support rate for the EU." Talking about Latvia's domestic politics, she said something very interesting: "Our saying here is that as soon as September comes, problems will come."9 October is when MPs are on vacation and Parliament begins to work.Eastern European countries like Latvia have adopted the Western election system. The common people are fresh for the first three days, and then they are generally bored. The 2008 financial tsunami triggered by the United States and the subsequent European sovereign debt crisis made Eastern Europe face a new crisis.Standard & Poor's has downgraded Ukraine's long-term foreign exchange rating to "CCC+," the lowest level in Europe, and downgraded the credit ratings of Romania and Latvia to "junk."During the process of economic transformation in Eastern Europe, almost all major banks were bought by banks in Western Europe, resulting in excessive reliance on foreign capital and excessive foreign currency loans in the banking industry.After the financial crisis struck, financial institutions in Western Europe withdrew capital from Eastern Europe on a large scale, triggering systemic risks in the Eastern European financial industry.The current crisis is also exacerbated by the overreliance of Eastern European countries on Western European countries for exports.The exports of Eastern European countries were hit hard, which further weakened their solvency and deepened the debt crisis.Today, almost all Eastern European countries have fallen into serious fiscal deficits. The currencies of Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic have fallen by more than 30%. The external debt of Poland and the Czech Republic has reached 100% of GDP.According to the latest survey results of Morgan Stanley, the total external debt of Eastern European countries is about 1.7 trillion US dollars, which exceeds the sum of the GDP of the region in 2008. More than 20 years have passed since the drastic changes in Eastern Europe, and Eastern European countries are also facing difficulties in building democracy. The Economist has this to say about the state of Eastern European democracy today: "In the face of the economic crisis, reforms across the region have stalled. Public services are poor. The media is muted. The process of party campaign financing is rife. Corruption. One of the reasons for these problems is that after joining the European Union, economic and political reform efforts in many Eastern European countries have stalled. At the same time, due to the financial crisis and the decline in American prestige, (Eastern European countries) copied Western All of this provides fertile ground for the emergence of a Putin-style leader.” The article starts with Hungarian President Orban amending the constitution, limiting judicial independence, and strengthening control over the media after taking office. It shows that Eastern European countries are experiencing the so-called "Putinization" trend from democracy to autocracy. (The Economist, December 18, 2010) The EU's overall evaluation of Eastern European democracy is indeed very low. Its main criticisms are: 1. Most of the economic transformation in Eastern Europe was relatively radical privatization, and the former government officials benefited the most.After democratization, these people transformed themselves into the largest business owners, and then relied on economic strength to form their own political parties, or change the name of the original political party, and the method of operation of the political party is not much different from the past.2. Twenty years have passed, but these countries still have not formed a truly independent judicial system and efficient civil servants. Government agencies are still procrastinating, bureaucratic bad habits have not been changed, and corruption is still very serious.3. A large number of new politicians have emerged in the Eastern European political arena, but no real politicians have emerged.They worked hard to join the EU just to get various subsidies from the EU, not for any nobler goals.4. Although there are many NGOs funded by the EU, a high-quality civil society has not yet formed. As time goes by, these countries may be able to make new breakthroughs in the construction of democracy and form a better-quality democratic system, but they may also linger in the ranks of low-quality democracy for a long time.The economy and education of Eastern European countries are relatively developed, illiteracy has been eradicated long ago, and the population is far smaller than that of China (Poland has a population of 38 million, which is about half of Jiangsu; Romania has a population of more than 21 million, which is less than Shanghai; Czech Republic has a population of 10 million. Others have a population of a few million, less than a medium-sized city in China), and are significantly more homogenous to Western culture than China, and have a lot of assistance and expert guidance from the European Union and the United States, but adopt Western political systems20 Years later, the results were so unsatisfactory, and many of the lessons are worth pondering for us Chinese.The above-mentioned "deeply divided society", "no real politicians", "no independent judiciary system", "no efficient civil servants" and other issues are all issues that we must consider in the construction of democracy .This can also make us more determined to explore China's own path, and follow the Western model. For a super-large country like ours, whose historical and cultural heritage is much different from that of Eastern Europe, the probability of success is probably zero.