Chapter 23 3. Democracy in Taiwan: From Hope to Disappointment

Whether you talk about the "Arab Spring" or the "Color Revolutions", they are essentially "acclimatization" brought about by non-Western countries and societies adopting the Western democratic model.This situation also occurs in Taiwan, China.I have visited the Taiwan region eight times, and I still have some personal experience of Taiwan's democracy.Once a Taiwanese friend asked me my opinion on Taiwan’s democracy, and I said that it reminded me of a political joke that was circulated in the mainland in 1976 during the so-called “Counter Rightist Overturning the Case” movement: People said to Deng Xiaoping, now everyone outside is criticizing you.Deng Xiaoping said, very good, continue to approve until the truth is approved.If Taiwan is willing, it can continue to follow the American democratic model, or continue to encounter it, until one day it is fully realized and the truth is realized, and then it can build a real high-quality democracy.

The quality of Taiwan's democracy is indeed not flattering. Over the past 20 years of democratic development, the first is a severe economic downturn—Taiwan’s economy has changed from the top of the “Asian Tigers” to the last, and now it needs economic blood transfusion from the Chinese mainland. More than 20 years ago, when the Chinese mainland proposed the establishment of "three links" between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan still dismissed it. Later, Taiwan needed the "three links" even more.Lee Teng-hui, who was elected by the people, practiced "restraint and patience", and Taiwan lost the good opportunity for the development of the mainland market.Chen Shui-bian, who was elected by the people, has changed 7 "Presidents of the Executive Council" in 8 years, focusing on the balance of power and tactics, not economic construction. Public investment has been negative for 8 consecutive years, and the economy has declined sharply.After Ma Ying-jeou came to power, he was weak in power, and the poll support rate was lower than Chen Shui-bian's level in those years, but he was right in one thing: he recognized the "1992 Consensus", stabilized cross-strait relations, and strengthened economic integration with the mainland. the only way out.

The past 20 years of Taiwan's democratization coincided with the 20 years of fundamental changes in the power of the mainland and Taiwan.Taiwan's democratization seems to be a great thing, that is, "Taiwan independence" has become impossible, because Taiwan has become one of the most dependent economies on the mainland, "Taiwan independence" means that Taiwan's economy will immediately collapse.Taiwan's population is smaller than Shanghai's, only 23 million, but today there are at least 1.5 million Taiwanese working, living or studying on the mainland, which probably counts as "voting with your feet".Many Taiwanese now say that the mainland is a bit like the "Chiang Ching-kuo era", that is, it is dedicated to construction, while Taiwan is in the "Cultural Revolution" era, with endless political infighting.

Taiwan's democracy has many intractable problems.For example, the design of Taiwan's electoral system is inherently problematic.Taiwan’s leader election is decided by a simple majority in the first round. If, like in France, the candidates in the first round get less than 50% of the votes, a second round of voting is required. It may be more fair, but the relevant legal amendments are very difficult. It is difficult to advance because the program requirements are too high, which is also the dilemma brought about by the "omnipotence of program theory" mentioned above.Moreover, a sign of a mature democracy is debating public policy, not ideology.Taiwan has so far failed to resolve the so-called "national identity" issue, so elections have always been highly ideological confrontations.The Soviet Union also had a problem with its internal identity, so when Western democracy was introduced, the Soviet Union disintegrated; Yugoslavia ended up splitting and civil war.If China adopts the Western system, separatist forces in Tibet and Xinjiang that reject "national identity" will rise, and eventually the entire country will be torn apart.

Taiwan's corruption problem is also more serious than in the past, and black money has infiltrated electoral politics.The 2009 report of the Asian Political and Economic Risk Company stated that the level of corruption in Taiwan was higher than that of the mainland. Ma Ying-jeou was heartbroken for this. He originally wanted Taiwan to become a beacon that illuminates the progress of the mainland, but now Taiwan itself has lost its way, and everything depends on the support of the mainland. Fortunately, the momentum of "Taiwan independence" has been hit hard.After Taiwan's democratization, gangsters and money have been involved in politics on a large scale, and Taiwan's democratic system has been rapidly marketized. In particular, the former leader Chen Shui-bian's eight years of greedy money-gathering is outrageous.Taiwan's media ecology has also undergone tremendous changes. Taiwan's media was called a "pug dog" during the Chiang Kai-shek era, but now it is called a "mad dog". Ethnic conflicts have been deliberately provoked. ", "Chinese" and so on, the ethnic group is torn apart, and the government loses its ability to integrate society.

Some people say that even though there are so many democratic problems in Taiwan, most Taiwanese are unwilling to go back to 20 years ago.Some people express similar views when it comes to the poor quality of democracy in Eastern Europe.In fact, it is too general to say this. Of course, most people are not willing to go back 20 years in history, but the reasons are very complicated. For example, 20 years ago, there were few mobile phones. Of course, most people do not want to go back to the era without mobile phones.Somalia is probably the most willing country in the world to go back decades. I went to that country in 1985. At that time, the hospitals, schools, post offices, etc. were still able to provide services. Later, it fell into anarchy, and even these services were gone. .There is also Hungary in Eastern Europe. Polls show that most people still think that the period of the last Communist Party leader, Kadar, was better than it is now.I have been to Hungary around 20 years before and after the political upheaval, and I can attest to this.Maybe we can ask the question in another way, for example, instead of asking if you would like to go back to 20 years ago, but ask if history can be re-enacted, would you like to go through such a change, I guess most of the Taiwanese and Eastern Europeans People will choose different ways of change.

Taiwan’s soft power against the mainland has also declined. When I went to Taiwan in 2013, I found that the mainland’s TV series "The Legend of Zhen Huan" was popular in Taiwan, and the mainland entertainment variety show "I Am a Singer" even caused controversy among people in Taiwan. Widely welcomed by the people of Taiwan.Taiwanese DPP politicians believe that the mainland is brainwashing Taiwanese.Thinking that the whole mainland was listening to Teresa Teng and watching Qiong Yao dramas 20 or 30 years ago, I really feel like "30 years in Hedong, 30 years in Hexi".So the mainland is more confident now. The mainland can send as many tourists as Taiwan hopes to receive. Today, Taiwan's tourism industry is mainly supported by mainland tourists.

Some Taiwanese scholars asked me, what is the prospect of democracy in Taiwan?I said that I myself have made a judgment on the adoption of Western democracy in non-Western societies: there are basically two endings, either from hope to disappointment, or from hope to despair.As far as Taiwan is concerned, the experience of democratization so far can be summarized as "from hope to disappointment", and the next stage should be "from hope to greater disappointment", but it is probably not yet hopeless.Why not despair?This is because: First, Taiwan has basically realized modernization through the East Asian model, and the proportion of the middle class is still relatively large.

If today's model had been adopted in the first place, Taiwan's modernization would not have been realized.Second, traditional Chinese culture has never been interrupted in Taiwan, which means that as long as the most basic stability can be maintained and the people work hard, the entire economy will not collapse.Third, the impact of the Chinese model—in a sense, it can be said that the Chinese model saved Taiwan.Economically, the Chinese model has brought about the rapid rise of the mainland, which has provided Taiwan and its compatriots with ample opportunities.Politically, the leaders produced by the Chinese model through meritocracy are generally more mature and rational than those produced by Taiwan's populism. In 2008, the West provoked riots in Tibet. Ma Ying-jeou, under the pressure of the Democratic Progressive Party, also loudly called for a boycott of the Beijing Olympics. deterioration of the relationship.If both sides are leaders elected by populists, cross-strait relations may be plunged into violent turmoil.

Why might the future of Taiwan's democracy be a "greater disappointment"?Because Taiwan's democratic dilemma is mainly caused by structural problems: first, a mature democratic system must have a basic "national identity", and Taiwan cannot do this.When the mainstream of a society is still arguing over "patriotism" or "traitorism", the society is prone to violent confrontation.When the public does not have a consensus on national identity, it is easy for politicians to play the populist card and win votes by inciting ethnic antagonism.Second, Taiwan's legal system does not have sufficient credibility.For example, people are dissatisfied with the ruling of the High Court on the election of Chen Shui-bian brought about by two bullets, and millions of "Red Shirts" took to the streets to protest. Question skeptical.Taiwan's judicial system has yet to develop a level of credibility that transcends partisan political divides.Third, "civic culture" is seriously insufficient. "Civic culture" is originally a specific customs and attitudes, characterized by respecting your opponents and respecting the few.In other words, Taiwan has only achieved electoral democracy, but its "civic culture" is still seriously absent, pervading an atmosphere that can be called "illiberal democracy." "Taiwanese" and "love Taiwan" have become populist symbols, and all claims of political opponents can be demonized. The means of "smearing", "smearing red" and "smearing yellow" have mobilized many dark things in human nature. In the spring of 2014, Taiwanese college students despised the rule of law again, occupied the "Legislative Yuan", attacked the "Executive Yuan", and protested the cross-strait "service trade agreement" which is generally beneficial to Taiwan. The downfall of the economy and society as a whole.Frankly speaking, the "citizen culture" in mainland society is even more lacking. This can be seen from the large amount of verbal violence on the Internet. Therefore, if the mainland implements Western-style democracy, the situation will be worse than that in Taiwan.Fourth, the excessive influence of the United States and the American model.In Taiwan, the infiltration of American influence is everywhere, which affects Taiwan's own political exploration.The American model itself faces enormous challenges, including the capture of political and social forces by capital forces and the "gamification of democracy".

From the lessons of Taiwan’s democratic development, we can draw some thoughts: First, we must break through the discourse paradigm dominated by the United States and the West, which believes that there are only two systems in the world, democracy and autocracy.This paradigm cannot be established. If we must use a dichotomy to look at the world's systems, there are only good government and bad government in the world.Good governance can be either a Western system or a non-Western system.Bad governance can also be Western institutions and non-Western institutions. Second, during the period of the "Two Jiangs" in Taiwan, traditional Chinese cultural education was not interrupted, and Taiwan's civil society was basically a gentle, respectful and thrifty society, especially compared with the mainland, which destroyed Chinese cultural traditions too much during the "Cultural Revolution" Now, the mainland has brought order out of chaos and is vigorously promoting Chinese culture.I think that if Taiwan did not copy the American democratic model, but developed according to the logic of traditional Chinese culture and absorbed reasonable elements of Western systems, Taiwan might have developed a high-quality deliberative democracy instead of the confrontational American one. Democracy; a highly pragmatic democracy, not the Western democracy that is opposed for its own sake.But Taiwan may have lost this opportunity forever, and mainland China still has such an opportunity. Third, taking Taiwan as a reference, we can see that the future of the Chinese model is very bright. More than 20 years ago, Taiwan felt good, while the mainland's economy had just started to take off. Taiwan had already taken a step ahead, and initially completed modernization during the Chiang Ching-kuo period. More than 20 years have passed. Driven by the China model, the power balance between the mainland and Taiwan has undergone earth-shaking changes. The mainland has risen rapidly while Taiwan has declined rapidly.A feature of the Chinese model is that it can formulate and implement policies that are in line with its own long-term interests. The smooth formulation and implementation of a series of five-year plans in China has laid the foundation for China's rise.After Taiwan "democratized", it lost the ability to plan for the medium and long term. In addition, in terms of politics, the Western model talks about one person, one vote, while the Chinese model talks about selecting the best and appointing the best, and the two can compete.Today is the age of new media, and democracy has become more and more populist and gamified. As a result, it is difficult to produce good leaders.As far as the quality of the leaders is concerned, the Taiwanese media commented that Chen Shui-bian is a "legal stick" who knew the law and broke the law and tried his best to make money;I really think that Taiwan's leaders are not as capable as Shanghai's district party secretary, so the Chinese model is really powerful and not afraid of competition.The ebb and flow of cross-strait power is irreversible.Taiwan's democratization process in the past 20 years is also the process of substantive changes in the strength of the two sides of the strait. The general trend of the two sides moving towards some form of political arrangement and eventually towards some form of reunification will be irreversible.