Chapter 5 Chapter 4 The Weakness of Human Nature

Why do we often make impulse purchases when we make up our minds to save? I went to the United States to study in 1976, and it has been more than 30 years.In the early days of studying abroad, every time I went to the bank, I wondered what it meant when I saw the wooden sign of "Christmas Club".Does it mean the bank is calling people together for a Christmas party?Or does it mean that if you join this club, you will get gifts for Christmas?Anyway, I still don't understand why there is such a wooden sign on the bank. I later learned that the Christmas Club was nothing more than a means of compulsive saving.We all know that once Christmas is over for Americans, their consumption expenditure will increase significantly. For example, they must buy gifts for people around them, and they must spend some travel expenses for the whole family to get together.People predict a lot of spending every Christmas, so start the year with a little effort to save money.

Members of the Christmas Club deposit a sum of money in the form of regular savings every month, and withdraw it together at Christmas.Interestingly, the bank does not pay a cent of interest.At that time, interest on savings was 5%, but members of the Christmas Club voluntarily waived these interest rates.Don't club members, who save money in this way, know that it is more profitable to receive interest? Not only do Christmas club members get no interest, but they also have to suffer the inconvenience of being forced to save every month.After all, the monthly expenditure may be more or less than usual. There is no doubt that it is reasonable to adjust the monthly savings amount appropriately according to the actual situation.But Christmas clubs are too inconvenient for you to make that adjustment.

What is it that motivates club members to favor this apparently unfavorable compulsory savings program?In a word, the motivation for joining the Christmas club is to see if you have self-control.If you're self-disciplined, you'll automatically save a certain amount of money each month, even without a program like The Christmas Club.However, if you have poor self-control, knowing that you must save money every month, you still cannot restrain the urge to spend money right away.Therefore, people who think they have low self-control would rather take the loss and join the Christmas club.

To use an analogy, to join the Christmas club is to actively tie your hands and feet.Because I don't believe in my own self-control, I simply choose to tie my hands and feet.The following is the line of Odysseus in the movie "Odyssey", which can be seen as a classic example of voluntarily giving up freedom because of doubts about one's own self-control: "Please tie it tight so that I cannot move a step. If I beg to be undone, please take another rope and tie me tighter." Odysseus was worried that he would not be able to sail the ship out of the reef because he would be attracted by the siren's singing, so he asked his men to tie him up.Members of the Christmas club think similarly, voluntarily giving up their right to save freely.

From a rational point of view, the more possibilities of choice, the better.Because the more possibilities there are to choose from, the wider the range of choices.But Christmas club members forgo interest, an act of actively reducing choice, and only those who have doubts about their self-control readily accept such adverse behavior.This can never be called rational, it is a very rare behavior. However, many examples of such irrational behavior can be found around us. People go to weight-loss clubs to lose weight.Sleeping comfortably at home, reading a book or watching TV by yourself can also lose weight?In other words, they did it because they had no self-control.If you don't go to the slimming club, your hands will definitely be unable to hold snacks or eat, so you can only give up the choice willingly and go to the slimming club.

The same is true for many people who quit smoking and drinking. "Starting today, I will never smoke (or drink)." I have already said this, but I have a cigarette in my mouth for a few days, which will be embarrassing when I meet my friends.If you don't have the confidence to quit, why spread the word?At any time, this is a "more thunder, less rain" approach. So far, we've looked at a few examples of irrational choices made because of fear of lack of self-control.On the contrary, there are also cases of making irrational choices because of too much belief in self-control.A typical example is getting a monthly or annual health club pass without actually using it.It is more economical to buy one-time admission tickets if you do not use them often.However, because some people believe too much in their own self-control, they insist on applying for a long-term card.

A survey was conducted on the users of American fitness clubs, and the results showed that the average number of times a month for those who paid $70 for a monthly card was 4.3 times at best.That works out to $17 for a trip to the health club.And one-time admission costs only $10, so these people's choices are obviously irrational.If you do the math again, you will know that the average loss for those who have applied for an annual card but not actually used it is $600. The reason for this irrational behavior is simple.Obviously because the moment I applied for a long-term card, I thought about going to the fitness club often, and at the same time I was very confident in myself.However, once I apply for a long-term card, it is different from the original intention, and I seldom go to the gym.Because of similar overconfidence, a lot of "wrong money" was spent.

When you think about it, you will take similar actions in many situations.For example, it is a common fact that you spend a lot of money on sports equipment but sit idle in a corner.I'm no exception - the storage room is filled with all kinds of unopened items that have been temporarily put on hold - and the rationality of people who study economics is nothing more than this. However, looking at it from a slightly different angle, there may be just the opposite explanation. The reason for applying for a long-term card is precisely because of lack of self-confidence.If you buy a one-time admission ticket, you will have the idea of ​​not going to a fitness club often, so you need to try a long-term card.The act of immediately applying for a long-term card means tying your hands and feet.In order to cheer myself up, "I have a long-term card, so I have to go to the fitness club often."

Even for a long-term card with this original intention, in fact, many people do not really use it.I have doubts about self-control, so the method of "tying my hands and feet" may not last long, but it is just "wasting money".Seeing this, people will really feel how difficult it is to be rational all the time.The economic man mentioned in economics textbooks is indeed very different from us in reality. Mr. Qian Meihong is a fan of the popular pianist Richard Clayderman.As soon as the CD of Clayderman's recitals is released, he will buy it home and collect it without exception.At the same time, he has a clear picture of Clayderman's performance trends.When he heard that Clayderman was going to hold a piano recital in South Korea, Mr. Qian bought a VIP seat ticket for 300,000 won, and everything was ready, just waiting for that day to come.

On the day of the concert, when he saw Clayderman sitting in front of the piano, Mr. Qian felt as if his heart was about to explode.But as soon as the recital started, he couldn't help but say to himself, "My God, it's not this".Clayderman seemed to have not practiced recently, playing in a mess.Mr. Qian originally regarded him as an idol, but now he really doesn't want to see him perform so poorly.Since there is such a thing, wouldn't it be good for him to leave the concert?However, Mr. Qian was reluctant to part with the 300,000 won.So he held back his displeasure and remained in his seat until the end of the recital.

The kind of short stories often mentioned in economics textbooks are typical examples of irrational behavior.Why is Mr. Qian's behavior irrational?He should have left the moment he realized he couldn't stand that kind of poor playing, but he didn't.Whether he left his seat or stayed there until the end of the concert, it was impossible to change the fact that 300,000 won had already been spent.Therefore, it is a reasonable choice to leave the seat and leave the talent. In economics, we call the 300,000 won that Mr. Qian paid for attending the concert a sunk cost.It has the nature of one-time payment, which cannot be recovered in any case, so it is called sunk cost.Costs of this nature should therefore be completely disregarded when deciding what course of action to take in accordance with rational principles.Like poured water that cannot be recovered, there is nothing we can do about the sunk costs that have already been paid. The moment Clayderman was found to be playing poorly, there was another question to consider when deciding whether to leave.That is, think about whether it is pleasure or pain for you to continue to sit in your seat, just think about this one question.If the answer is obvious, and you feel that there is no joy but pain in your seat, you should choose to leave without hesitation. This is the trick to making a rational choice. But why bother you or me to obsess over sunk costs in a similar situation?The reason is the fear of falling into self-blame for wasting money.If you get up during the concert, you will feel regret like this: "Ah, I wasted a huge amount of 300,000 won." Behavioral economists have found that another characteristic of human beings is that they hate the word "regret" very much. .In order not to regret, Mr. Qian paid the price of enduring unhappiness. As long as we are alive, there are many situations where we are obsessed with sunk costs and have adopted irrational behaviors.A typical example is when you buy something, it doesn’t look right when you use it, but you continue to use it because you regret the money you spent.If you have the idea of ​​throwing it away, it is rational to throw it away without hesitation.Even if you continue to use it, you will not get back a cent of the money you paid.But in this case, how many people can really have the courage to throw it away without hesitation? This kind of thing also happens frequently when interacting with the opposite sex.When the love disappears and the two want to break up, there are more than one or two people who are hesitant because they feel sorry for the time and emotions spent in the relationship.Even if you have invested a lot of time and affection in love, it is already a thing of the past.Whether it is necessary to continue the relationship between two people should be determined only by the question mentioned above.Even so, most people still feel nostalgic for the past. Think about it, some readers must be muttering: "How can such a romantic thing as love be measured by a rational scale?" I seem to have heard such words in my ears: "Don't economists have emotions?" If it can be explained, no matter how romantic it is, as long as it comes to making a decision, rationality is also indispensable.Because there are countless such situations, if you only focus on feelings and make a hasty decision, you will feel very regretful later. Interestingly, not only individuals, but the government is also obsessed with sunk costs, making it impossible to make rational decisions in many cases.The process of joint development of the Concorde supersonic airliner by Britain and France can be regarded as a typical example.This supersonic airliner only flew for 34 years between 1969 and 2003. As early as in the development process, it was judged to be unfeasible.However, the governments of the two countries have invested huge sums of money and forced development based on this, resulting in even greater waste. The government made irrational decisions because of its obsession with sunk costs. This incident is often cited as a typical case.The phrase "Concorde's mistake" is often heard.There are similar cases in South Korea. In 1991, when South Korea wanted to build high-rise buildings on land reclamation, similar mistakes also occurred in the debate on whether to continue the reclamation project. Environmental organizations filed a lawsuit to stop the project on the grounds that the reclamation project is basically uneconomical and worried about environmental damage.Sure enough, taking this as an opportunity, the entire South Korea launched a debate on whether it is necessary to continue the reclamation project.At this time, those who advocated the continuation of the project raised the most important reason - more than 100 million won has been invested.Neither those nor the Supreme Court, which ultimately threw its hands up, could get away with the "Concorde error." While it is a problem for individuals to have an irrational attitude towards sunk costs, it is a bigger problem for the government to have such an attitude.Because this is not just the loss of one or two people, but the loss of the entire nation.Unfortunately, no government in the world has escaped the "Concorde error".Undoubtedly, the South Korean government is no exception. The same is true of the so-called "Korea Grand Waterway", an anachronistic project.Some people suggested that a preliminary attempt could be made to accurately judge whether it is economical.Do not be deceived by such words.Because this is a trap, expect the nation to fall into "Concorde's mistake".Recently, the four major renovation projects of the "Green New Deal" that South Korea is promoting have fully aroused the doubts of Korean citizens on this point.We cannot rest for a moment, and must keep our eyes open and keenly monitor the situation around us. As a professor, I often serve as a witness at student weddings.Newlyweds often go on honeymoon trips.However, it is rare to see their self-guided tours, and most people choose package tours.It is not difficult to guess why they choose package tours.After going through a process similar to the one below, if it were you, you would definitely choose a package tour. Before getting married, Mr. Jiu Manaka and Miss Cheng Meili planned to go to Bali for their honeymoon and found a travel agency.The staff of the travel agency recommended a package tour that costs 4 million won per person (no other additional costs), and the travel period is five days and four nights.This is a form of travel that pays in advance for round-trip air tickets, accommodation, meals, and various recreational activities. Sounds great, but they feel like a burden paying the fee, so ask if there are slightly less expensive options.The staff of the travel agency recommended a semi-self-guided tour project, which costs 2 million won per person, including round-trip air tickets and accommodation only.But he said there could also be a lot to pay for meals and various recreational activities.However, the two of them don't think so.There must be many entertainment activities included in the package tour that you don’t want to play, so it seems that it is more economical to choose a semi-self-guided tour. Faced with these two options, they hesitated for several days, and finally chose a package tour worth 4 million won.Why do you choose package tours when you feel burdened by expenses?They will not know that if you choose a semi-self-guided tour, and then choose food and entertainment appropriately, you can save money.We are very curious about the reasons why they are willing to choose package tours knowing this fact. Generally speaking, in order to save the cost spent on decision-making, they are likely to choose package tours.But to the extent that package tours have solidified all activities, it can become a very uninteresting way to travel.Because everyone has different interests, some people think it is more important to live well, some people think it is more important to eat well, and so on.However, package tours disregard that difference between interests, and all items included are unified. However, the point here is that such silly features can attract many people and make them willing to accept package tours.Unify all items, and those who book a package tour will not be distressed by the need to choose.People plan to spend their rare wedding trip comfortably, and if there are many choices that must be made, it may reduce the joy.All choices are made by oneself, and the psychological cost will increase accordingly. For example, in order to decide what kind of cuisine to eat, look around and consider the process of choosing a restaurant may be happy, but this is a rather troublesome thing.In addition, it is more difficult to make an appropriate choice when no suitable restaurant is available.Even at $150 per person, it's not that easy to decide whether to dive or not.In addition, if the two people disagree on some selective issues, unnecessary quarrels may occur. People who have booked a package tour do not need to worry about such problems.Because everything is executed in a predetermined way.The two of them have no other ideas, just enjoy it.Stripping away the cost of these options is what makes package tours so attractive.Mr. Manakajiu and Ms. Cheng Meili chose the package tour according to their own judgment, and their seniors also advised them to do so.In any case, the biggest advantage of package tours is that you don't have to make choices. The basic position of economics is that if there are many choices, the more choices the better.Because unsatisfactory choices can be eliminated, one more choice may have better results.However, if we consider the opportunity cost spent on choices in reality, it is difficult to think that the more possibilities of choices, the better.In situations where the opportunity cost is high, it is likely that fewer options are better. So people do things like this, deliberately giving up the possibility of their own choice.The behavior of choosing a package tour mentioned above is a typical example.Package tours without freedom have attracted people's attention.Some behavioral economists refer to this situation as "choice without choice", that is, in order to save costs related to choice, the right to choose is voluntarily given up. One of the buzzwords among young people these days is "trouble".I almost spit out the coffee in my mouth when I was looking at an illustration with the theme of "the extreme of being afraid of trouble".The painting depicts a decadent-looking young man playing games on a laptop in bed.There was leftover food on the bed, clothes that had been taken off, and all sorts of rubbish thrown around.Think about it, those parents with children will feel very relieved when they see this illustration.Because if compared with the young man in the painting, they will think their children are more positive. In a sense, the newlyweds mentioned above also chose package tours because they were afraid of trouble.To be bored in order to make a choice is simply to give up the possibility of choosing because of the boredom of impatience.If you analyze it, you will know that many things in our lives are affected by "fear of trouble".No matter how hardworking a person is, it is impossible to completely get rid of the influence of "fear of trouble". This is our real life. In many cases, it is possible to see the change of our actions affected by the "fear of trouble".If the situation changes, it is a matter of course that you should adjust your actions in due course.For example, if the weather is a bit cold in the morning, you wear thick clothes to go out. In the afternoon, the weather suddenly turns hot. At this time, you should take off the thick clothes you wore when you went out in the morning.It's hot and sweaty, isn't it necessary to go back and change clothes? But take a look on the street, even in this situation, people still wear thick clothes.People who go back and change their clothes will be very eye-catching, because most people still stick to their original clothes.Only when I really can't hold on, I have to take off the thick clothes.Whenever the temperature changes slightly, few people change clothes in a timely and diligent manner. Likewise, people have an inertia of not wanting to break free from their current situation.In other words, people have a habit of not adapting quickly to change. This is called "status quo preference," so named because of the desire to maintain the status quo.Similar status quo preferences can be observed in every aspect of our lives. When the government formulates a certain policy, it must pay attention to the fact that people have "status quo preference".Almost all policies require people to act differently than before.Policies only work if people change their actions.But because of the status quo preference, people feel rather inconvenient and unhappy when changing their actions.That is, no matter how well intentioned a policy may be, people pay a lot psychologically to follow it. There are many cases where something is just modified in the name of reform, and the result is worse than before.Because we only see positive effects of changes without fully considering the attendant costs, the results will definitely be worse.For real reform to take place, the change must be positive enough to offset the psychological costs of adapting to it.However, this is rarely the case in reality. Status quo preference refers to the fact that people prefer to maintain the status quo because they have the habit of not wanting to leave the status quo. No matter how unnatural it may seem, the existing system or system still has certain advantages.One of the most important advantages is that people are familiar with it.Feeling comfortable with familiarity is why status quo preference arises.Every time the government proposes reform, it rolls up its sleeves and wants to change everything.If we did that, our lives would not be significantly improved.Because of ignoring the fact that status quo preferences exist, the results are less than ideal. People have a preference to hate trouble, and so far this fact can be viewed from different angles.For example, when buying a digital camera, you should experiment with various settings to take pictures.However, unless there are special circumstances, many people just try to shoot according to the mode preset by the manufacturer.Most people have this preference, even very professional ones. This is because if one intends to change the pattern preset by the manufacturer, one must work on it.First, understand how the photo will change, and then change the settings accordingly.Although it is not difficult, many people find it troublesome.If you are not a very diligent person or a person who is particularly interested in taking pictures, you will think it is not worth the effort. Below is another example.An enterprise adopts the method of distributing allowances four times a year.However, some employees would like the same amount to be paid out once or twice a year.Are there really a lot of people who want to change the number of times the stipend is paid out?The interesting fact is that, even when offered the possibility of this option, the majority of staff still opt for the four-year stipend. A four-year stipend has been established.Changing to other methods requires complex thinking. "Together, you can save the allowance if you get it all at once. If you get it separately, the money you get will be used up immediately." "If you get it all at once, it is more likely to spend it all at once." "And, if you feel it many times Isn't it better to have the joy of getting a stipend?" "The important thing is that there is no difference in the amount you get." For most people, the very idea of ​​changing the number of times a benefit is paid is troublesome in itself.Therefore, it will also choose to execute in the way preset by the enterprise.This practice of choosing to perform in a predetermined way is called "established preference".The "established" here refers to the meaning that has been determined.If we look closely at our lives, we can see this established preference everywhere. A stated preference is one that, because people are afraid to bother, intend to perform in a way that has been set. The fact that people have established preferences must be taken into account in the policy making process.Because the formulation of policies will affect the quality of life, for example, when the national health insurance system is formulated, the basic framework of policy formulation is different, which may lead to changes in the number of people who enjoy the protection of this system. It is assumed that the basic framework of this system is that only those who express their willingness to join can enjoy the protection.This also means that people who have not shown that willingness cannot enjoy the protection of any health insurance system.In this case, the pre-set option is to not join the case.Many people are not covered by the NHS because people with established preferences do not show a willingness to join. On the contrary, if such a basic framework is formulated, those who have not expressly expressed their unwillingness to join will be regarded as automatically joining the national health insurance system, and then these people can enjoy the protection of the system.In this case, pre-determined choice becomes an opt-in situation, so that a large number of people can enjoy the coverage of the national health insurance system.From the perspective of wishing as many people as possible to enjoy the protection of the health insurance system, it is self-evident what kind of basic framework should be formulated. Even when it comes to donating human organs, the fact that people have established preferences has important implications.With the continuous improvement of the technical level of organ transplant surgery, if there is an organ transplant, it is very possible to bring back to life those who would die.The problem, though, is that the available supply of organs is limited.Similar problems exist in countries all over the world. In order to encourage the donation of human organs, the governments of various countries are introducing various policies.One of the most effective policies is: For brain-dead persons who have not specifically expressed their unwillingness to donate, they are considered willing to donate their organs.The Spanish government adopted this policy and achieved quite remarkable results.Other governments, seeing the results, rushed to consider such a policy. The reason why this policy can achieve such obvious effect is because the people's established preferences are properly used.Among the policies adopted by the Spanish government, its pre-set choice is that brain-dead people are willing to donate their organs.If you want to change this choice, you must report to the government that you don’t want to donate, and you must say: "Even if I am in a state of brain death, I don’t want to donate my organs." Because most people think this is too much trouble, so they choose The established option - organ donation. On the contrary, the policy adopted by most countries is to regard those who do not clearly express their willingness to donate organs as having no willingness to donate.In this case, we do not need to say what actions people with given preferences must take.Therefore, if this "trouble" is properly utilized, many lives can be saved. As we have now seen, in formulating the basic framework of policy, the important question is to determine in advance which one to choose.It is necessary to consider the choices of most people, and then formulate policies carefully.Even if the intention of the policy is good, it will not achieve good results if the basic framework is contrary to the pre-selection.However, it is impossible to mention such a statement in economics textbooks.This argument can only be understood from the perspective of behavioral economics. When I went to buy a mobile phone, I saw a price tag of RMB 2,000 for my favorite model.I'm going to buy this phone, so I'm looking at the details carefully.Just at that time, a friend came in and whispered in my ear: "The price of this store is too high, other stores only cost 1,700 yuan." If it were you, would you walk out of this store under such circumstances? store, but go to the mobile phone store that is 300 yuan cheaper? Similarly, I went to an electrical store to buy a TV, and the price of my favorite model was 20,000 RMB.When he was hesitating whether to buy it, that friend came over and said quietly: "This TV is only sold at 19,700 yuan in other stores. Do you have to buy it at this store?" In this case, what would you do? Woolen cloth? Faced with such a situation, it is estimated that most people will take the following actions: they will go to other stores to buy mobile phones, and the TV will still be purchased in the original electrical store.This is because subtracting RMB 300 from RMB 2,000 feels like a lot of savings, whereas subtracting RMB 300 from RMB 20,000 does not feel like saving much.If you were a reader, think about what you would do?I believe that everyone will agree with this prediction, as if it is the case. In general, people will choose to go to another store if they think that the discount they get is greater than the value of going to another store.This is the way to act in line with rational principles.However, in both cases, you can also save 300 yuan by going to other stores.Not only that, but we can see that the value of shopping in other stores is exactly the same in both cases. Therefore, if a rational person would go to another store to buy a mobile phone, he would not buy a TV in the original electrical store.In other words, in both cases, you will go to other stores to buy, or you will buy in the original store.For example, if the value saved by going to other stores becomes 1,000 yuan, then you should buy mobile phones or TVs at other stores.On the contrary, if the value saved by going to another store is only 200 yuan, then, in both cases, you should buy it in the original store. So, in reality, people will go to other stores to buy mobile phones, but why do they take the irrational action of buying TVs in the original electrical store?We can predict from similar actions that the reason for buying at the original store is more obvious, that is, people value the efficiency of savings more than the absolute magnitude of savings. The case of buying a mobile phone shows that you can save 10% of your money by buying elsewhere.In contrast, the case of buying a TV shows that the savings of going elsewhere are at best 1%.If you can save 10%, it's worth the trouble to go to other stores.But in order to save a mere 1%, it seems that there is no special point in going to other stores.As we have seen in this example, the decisive factor in people's will is not rational principles, but intuitive feelings. If we use this logic in reverse and come up with various reasons to raise the initial price at a very small rate, it is estimated that consumers will not express strong resistance.Sellers can create greater profits by cleverly using this psychology of consumers.The basic price of a certain product is relatively low, and then the price is slightly raised for each additional function. This is a very typical example. A prime example of the frequent use of this brilliant technique is the automobile industry.For example, the price of a certain car in the advertisement is 140,000 yuan, but under normal circumstances, the actual amount paid far exceeds this amount.The price of configuring the DVD player, the price of the parking sensor system... If functions are added in this way, the final price structure may become the cart before the horse. On the contrary, when all the functions are equipped, the price is 240,000 RMB, and then, bargaining is made by reducing the configuration functions to save the price.Like we mentioned earlier, people don't feel like they're making a profit even with a small price drop.Therefore, if you bargain in this way, you are likely to be looked down upon by the seller.As a result, car dealers tend to set the price of a base model low and then raise the price a little bit. Economists observed the behavior of New York taxi drivers and found something rather unique.They work an average of 12 hours a day, but the time to go home after work varies with the situation.For example, it can be seen that when there are many customers, people get off work earlier; when there are few customers, they are still working very late. From a rational-choice standpoint, it is difficult to understand why the time to go home should be determined in this way.Because according to experience, when there are many customers, it is very likely that there will still be many customers until late at night.On the contrary, when there are few customers, even in the middle of the night, it is difficult to attract customers on the street.It is impossible for an experienced taxi driver not to know this fact. Therefore, when there are many customers, it is reasonable to work late to earn more money; when there are few customers, it is reasonable to go home early.But from what point of view is it reasonable?That is to say, the hours of work in a month are exactly the same, and it is reasonable to see which one can get more income.Arguably, it is plausible to do the opposite of New York taxi drivers and earn more by working the same amount of time. So why would a NYC taxi driver act like a fool?To say they work like idiots is not true.Because, there is a reason why they don't change their behavior.It's not that I don't know that if I take the opposite behavior, my income will increase, but I know this, and I may not do it for some reason.Then, "acting like a fool" is not appropriate. Behavioral economists place great emphasis on this unique mental accounting of New York taxi drivers.As explained in the previous chapter, the imaginary accounting books in people's minds are called mental accounts.As mentioned earlier, an important factor in mental accounts is how money is earned or where it is used.Not only that, but another important element of mental accounting is to compare income and expenses frequently to see if there are any profits or losses. From this point of view, it can be found that there are great differences in each person.For example, when investing in stocks, some people are impatient and calculate the rate of return every day.On the contrary, there are people who calculate the rate of return once a month; if you ask carefully, you will even find that someone calculates the rate of return once a year.This shows that they have different mental accounts. Behavioral economists have observed that New York taxi drivers have mental accounts that value earnings by the day.They set an income goal for the day and view failure to meet that goal as a loss.However, people generally have loss aversion.As stated in the previous chapter, people have a particularly loss-averse preference.Behavioral economists believe that combining the two leads to unique behaviors like taxi drivers. Taxi drivers rate their income in units of days and hate losses in particular, so we can guess what their day is like.If there are many customers, he will complete the target income of the day at 7 pm, and will go home without nostalgia.因为可以和家人一起吃晚饭了。相反，如果他在晚上10点还没有完成收入目标，则会继续赚剩下的钱。因为把未赚够的部分看做损失，所以会一直固执地握紧方向盘，直到完成收入目标。 假如出祖车司机变成以月为单位，评价收入心理账户，会怎么样呢？那样的话，估计他们的行为会发生180度的转变。比如，没有客人的时候，会选择早点儿回家，明天多赚一些。因为虽然没能完成收入目标，但并不把它看做损失。 如果从传统经济理论的观点来看，很难理解纽约出租车司机的行为：如果他们想最大限度地赚取一个月的收入，就不会釆取像现在这样的行为。但是，如果从行为经济学的观点来看，这是一种能够得到充分理解的行为。因为，这是按照自己独特的心理账户采取的行为。就像我们在这个例子中看到的，行为经济学理论可以从更宽泛的角度来理解经济现象。 在美国留学的时候，我们家的邮筒总是塞满了企业的促销广告。去现在正在留学的女儿家一看，也是那样。有这样的现象，人们从邮简里取出的信件，90%以上都不会细看就直接扔掉。虽然有的人会留意某些促销广告，但我认为也不用那样坚持不懈地寄送。 某天，碰巧打开一个要扔的促销广告一看，里面有一张看起来像支票的纸……不是，不是看起来像支票，而是真的支票。收到那封信的人可以拿它兑换10美元。当然绝对不是免费的，那个支票旁边用小字写着如下的条件： 如果拿这张支票去兑换现金，即同意成为HS俱乐部10天试用期的会员。我了解到这样的事实，试用期结束之前如果没有打公司电话表明退出意愿，将被自动延长11个月的加入期限，并从信用卡上扣除189.99美元。如果我仍没有表示退出的意愿，第一年加入期限结束后将被自动延长一年，要缴纳199.99美元的年费。之后、如果还没有表示退出的意愿，以缴纳年费为前提，每年会自动延长加入期限。 在这张支票上签名并兑换10美元现金，就表示你成了HS倶乐部的会员。支票下边密密麻麻地罗列了加入那个俱乐部可以得到的优惠。我丝毫没有加入那个俱乐部的意思，所以根本不关心优惠条例。但是，让我吃惊的是寄出那封信的公司的商战技巧。这家公司采取的正是行为经济学中所揭示的，利用人们的本性作为创造利润手段的方法，这一点非常有意思。 首先，它利用了稟赋效应。制定成为30天试用期的会员制度与禀赋效应有关。为了诱导人们成为试用期会员，它拋出了10美元的诱饵，使没有加入意愿的人也改变了想法，暂时成为会员。这为缴纳最初的189.99美元年费的行为作了铺垫。 与此同时，它巧妙地利用了人们怕痳烦的心理。如果有人同意加入，并想在30日之内提出退出意愿，但是，真的拿起电话表达退出意愿就没有想象中那么容易了。肯定是稀里糊涂地过去30天，信用卡上被扣除189.99美元。因为钱不是自己直接支付，是不知不觉中从信用卡上扣除，所以这就变成难以避免的事了。 那样的话，就会出现被自动延长一年加入期限的人。当这些人看到信用卡对账单，了解到意外被扣189.99美元的事实，会大受打击。既然如此，他就准备尽可能地享受一年的优惠，下定决心期限一到就提出退出意愿。但是，这个期限很快过去了，随后又是这样的结果——稀里糊涂地又被自动延长了一年的加入期限。 重要的一点是，如果会员没有明确地表达退出的意愿，就会被自动延长加入期限。换句话说，这个合约处于既定状态，即预先确定的状态是加入期限被自动延长，这一点非常重要。可以看到有既定偏好的人们，就有接受这个预定状态的趋势。会员人数越多，利润就越大，该公司就是利用了人们有既定偏好的事实，把它看做创造利润的机会。