Chapter 64 All directions say "real estate bigwigs" say Sunco

Wang Shi (Chairman of Vanke Group): Regarding the Sunco phenomenon, Vanke has issued a research report, which contains three points: First, Mr. Sun started his business as a second-hand housing agency, and is sensitive to market responses to customer needs. The employees are full of fighting spirit, the management emphasizes capital flow, and the products focus on residential development; second, a rapidly expanding real estate company is short of funds and management teams; third, in terms of capital flow, unless there is a strong consortium or Bank as the backing, otherwise it is impossible to deliver the land price on schedule.In fact, Sunco is delaying the delivery of land prices in many cities, while on the other hand, it continues to acquire land at high prices.

The conclusion of the report is: Mr. Sun is gambling.When the land was acquired at a high price, they were not prepared to pay back the money on time, and it was a game of government credibility, which was an act of malicious competition.If you grasp the rhythm, Sunco can become a very good company.But if it is not well grasped, it will pay the price for the miracle created by blind expansion. It is not surprising to me that Sunco proposed the goal of surpassing Vanke. It is a law that the waves behind the Yangtze River push forward the waves ahead.It is Vanke's honor to regard Vanke as exceeding its goal. It is also possible to surpass Vanke in terms of operating scale, for example, through the merger and asset reorganization of several real estate companies to quickly achieve the goal.But if we only look at the natural growth of our own enterprise, the extraordinary speed of development breeds great business risks, such as the contradiction between speed and management team follow-up, quality and speed.The premise of high-speed growth is the high-speed growth of the market. Once the market fluctuates, there may be problems in the tense capital chain.As the saying goes: Haste makes waste.

If we take this into consideration at a deeper level, it can be said that the size of the enterprise should not be the goal of the enterprise, and the number one in the industry is not measured only by its scale.As long as an enterprise has its own core competitiveness or a relatively good competitive advantage, even if it is not the industry leader or number two, it still has vitality; on the contrary, when a large and large enterprise really forms a scale, it will decline rapidly. .Among Chinese start-ups, similar examples abound. Pan Shiyi (Chairman of SOHO China): Sunco’s behavior is an enterprise’s behavior, and it is also a decision of the enterprise itself. The boss of the enterprise made a wrong judgment, and the market will definitely punish this mistake.The market will punish the mistakes made by this enterprise, I think this is a basic common sense.

For Sunco, we don't have to worry about how high the price it is willing to pay for the land, the market and time will test it.As a good company, it must abide by the law, abide by the policy, not make false accounts, not deliberately default on other people's money, and not evade taxes for a penny. As long as you do these things, you are a good company.Of course, if it does this, others will respect it; if it keeps making mistakes, let the market punish it. The rapid expansion of Sunco in the past one or two years has indeed left many colleagues dumbfounded.There are many, many comments about Sunco.I think this kind of fabulous expansion is very dangerous, and the success may be a drop in the bucket.There is only one possibility, that is, China has greatly restricted the supply of construction land during this macro-control, making the land very scarce and the price rising rapidly. valuable.However, I think that the Chinese government will take a very rational action in this process of macro-control, fully considering the relationship between supply and demand in the market.Therefore, this assumption is basically impossible to hold.The collapse of any large company will bring great disaster and misfortune to the people and companies around it.I think few people are willing to see Sunco become such a collapsed company, which will bring negative impact to the real estate market.Therefore, Mr. Sun of Sunco should be cautious and don't be too aggressive!

It is very, very dangerous for any enterprise to over-expand without considering its own capabilities.Especially in the context of China's current tightening financial situation, this danger is even more intensified. Feng Lun (Chairman of the Vantone Group Board of Directors): There are four prerequisites for the rapid expansion of Sunco: first, the support of bank credit is not strictly restricted, and the threshold for capital is relatively low; second, the land policy is not as strict as it is now. For investment promotion and benefits, it is allowed to pay a part of the deposit first, and then pay the land transfer fee in installments; the third is that the pre-sale market continues to be hot, and the government has less intervention. Consumers can basically accept it no matter what kind of house and price you have; fourth is An internal premise is that the financial and management capabilities of the enterprise itself can keep up.

However, under the background of macro-control, at least three prerequisites of Sunco's expansion model have changed, so it faces a problem that must be transformed.In addition, Sunco is somewhat special. Compared with several other enterprises, it is not in the same enterprise life cycle. For example, companies such as Vanke have a longer development history than Sunco, and have gone through several cycles.In terms of development, Sunco is still in the first life cycle, or a period of primitive accumulation.Enterprises in the period of primitive accumulation have a scale orientation. The desire to expand and expand in the hearts of most leaders is often the most obvious feature of enterprises in the first cycle of life.Sunco's development model pushes the traditional development model to the extreme.Wantong has not always advocated this model, and we think this model is very dangerous.

Since its establishment in 1991, until 1995, Vantone has been seeking diversified expansion.If you look at Vanke in this period, it is the same.Therefore, from the perspective of the enterprise, Sunco is in the stage of primitive accumulation; from the perspective of the industry, the three prerequisites have changed, so you must change, otherwise there is no way to live.For a mature enterprise like Vanke, the cycle curve of industry and enterprise development will not have a great impact on it, and the biggest impact is the macroeconomic cycle curve.If the macro economy is down, companies like Vanke will also face a challenge.

My point of view is that under the background that the industry is still developing and the macro economy continues to grow, it is Shunco's luck that Sunco can still reorganize; it is its wisdom that Sunco can transform from passive pressure to active restructuring; If it can be adjusted successfully, it is its ability; after adjustment, it can move forward at a high speed, which is its brilliance. There are many times now that (the market) does not give you the opportunity to make adjustments. For example, the real estate market in Hainan back then was in a slump, and everything went down.