Chapter 45 All parties say why China's stock market is like a casino

Wu Jinglian (economist, researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council): China's stock market is very much like a casino, and it is very irregular.There are also rules in the casino, for example, you can't look at other people's cards.But in our stock market, some people can read other people's cards, cheat, and engage in fraud.Sitting on the bank, speculating, and manipulating stock prices can be said to be the pinnacle. Currently, the stock price manipulation in the Chinese market: one type is intermediary agencies; the other type is certain insiders of listed companies, that is, people with inside information; the other type is the supplier of funds, which can be banks or others provider of funds.After conspiring together, they bought stocks at a low price.There are roughly two methods of speculation: one is that affiliated institutions speculate and buy and sell each other, and the trading is very frequent, and the price is raised; the other is that the relevant listed companies release good news and then drive up the stock price.When they find that there are small and medium-sized investors or big outside investors following up, they will sneak away and trap those who followed up later, and the stock price will continue to fall.Don't turn the stock market into a "rent-seeking field."Because the management positions the stock market as a financing tool for state-owned enterprises and favors state-owned enterprises, companies that have obtained listing privileges can collect money from holders of tradable shares by issuing high premiums, thus turning the stock market into a Huge "rent-seeking field".Therefore, the policy of "the stock market serves the financing of state-owned enterprises" and the practice of "the government entrusts the market and enterprises circle money" must be rejected.

Zhang Weiying (Economist, Dean of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University): Why are there so many scammers in the Chinese stock market?In China's stock market, there is a lack of real long-term investors, the government controls it at will, and everyone has no stable expectations, so scandals continue. I said that the Chinese stock market is actually a "rent-seeking field".Control makes rotten persimmons valuable and good persimmons hard to sell.Is the reason why the stock market can continue to expand now because the government has endless resources?The resources are certainly not endless, but they are not exhausted yet.If you make a mistake, the government will inevitably use other resources to cover up your mistake. The government's implicit guarantee makes everyone who plays in the stock market expect that they will not be harmed.In the West, if a business goes under, the stock is worthless; but in China, a business going bankrupt can create demand for "shells."What does this "shell" mean in economics?It stands for regulated rent.In the market, it is impossible for someone to buy a bankrupt company; even if you buy it, you don't need to pay much.I want to go public, I can go public myself, why should I wear your coat?But it’s different in China. Listing is a government monopoly. If I can’t get listed on my own, I can only go public through a back door.When you go to sell tomatoes, if rotten tomatoes and good tomatoes are placed together, the price of good tomatoes will also drop.But our problem is that good tomatoes are not allowed to be sold, only rotten tomatoes, so in order to sell my good tomatoes, I have to stuff them into your rotten tomatoes and sell them.The rotten tomatoes in the current stock market are very valuable, and it is the good tomatoes that are damaged, which cannot reach their due prices.

China's stock market is still a black hole of funds. When the resources are exhausted, it will be over.In terms of timing, once everyone expects that off-market resources will be exhausted, the stock market will crash.Then, the stock market slowly got on the right track again.Monopoly creates and attracts more scammers.The deception in the stock market is actually caused by the government intentionally or unintentionally.In order to prevent fraud, the government has to take some other measures.For example, it is stipulated that the return on net assets of listed companies must be above 10% in three years before they can issue additional allotment shares, which will lead listed companies to further take short-term actions.Just imagine, after I went public, I raised 100 million yuan, plus my original 100 million yuan, I must have a profit of 20 million yuan every year to be able to issue shares, but in fact, any good project cannot be completed within a year or two. Just profit.So, what should this listed company do?It itself is the most motivated to sit on the bank and hype.It could not have passed this test, but now it has fired itself and passed this test, and real companies dare not go public because they cannot meet this requirement after listing.In theory, this thing is not difficult to understand.Just as the credit rationing theory of Stiglitz and Wens put forward, due to the existence of "adverse selection", the higher the bank's loan interest rate is, the less honest enterprises dare to lend, and all the ones who come are liars and risk-takers. Home.Due to "adverse selection", those who are more capable of manipulating the stock market are more willing to go public, because it is the most "capable" to meet regulatory requirements.

Hu Shuli (Editor-in-Chief of Caijing Magazine): China's securities market has a strong support system of "market stocks", which is a paradise for market makers.This is an unacceptable conclusion, but it is the reality.In the entire banker support system, the strongest backbone is the financial support system. Things are a bit simple to say: the securities market is not a closed system, its operation depends on the financial system; the financial system plagued by illnesses, in turn, aggravates the symptoms of the securities market.In the Lvliang case, the intermediary agency that helped the banker create 5.4 billion yuan in "financing" within two months was precisely the many securities companies that knew that it was illegal to manipulate stock prices, but were scrambling to be the first, most of which were large state-owned securities companies. The company has a total of 153 sales departments.The list of brokerages who helped Lvliang "finance" was published in the procuratorate's indictment and was widely published in various media.However, either because there were too many people involved, or because of the ambiguity of the legal definition, or because of other reasons, the relevant responsible persons have not been subject to any judicial investigation.Not only that, many of the responsible persons were reinstated and even promoted after the limelight. It seems that in the eyes of their company, they are not violations of regulations or dereliction of duty.Such an ending, although it is expected by people, can have various plausible explanations, but it also shows indisputably how strong the banker support system in China's securities market is!

The regulatory authorities have done a lot to clean up the securities market. A series of the worst cases have been investigated, exposed, and brought to justice, which has indeed played a deterrent effect.In addition to being deterred, it is now clear what happened before. It can be seen that the appearance of the Lu Liangs is not accidental, and the accomplices of the dealers are actually a complete and powerful support system.If you still want to go in the established direction, now is the time to perform surgery on the banker system and dig out its roots.This is related to whether China's securities market can have a healthy future, and it is related to the future of China's market economic system.Of course, the operator should not be just a regulatory department or a front army, which requires overall resolute action.

The reason is simple, the important thing is to reach a consensus as soon as possible and put it into practice.Otherwise, it may only be a matter of time before the new Luliang reappears in the world. In 1992, the scene of the "stock madness" in Shenzhen.Luliang's magical life begins here.