Chapter 9 Chapter 20, 1948: The Final "Tiger Fight"

In the spring of 1948, Qian Mu, the author of "Outline of National History" and a historian from Wuxi, returned to his hometown and was invited to teach at Jiangnan University founded by Rong Desheng.He lived upstairs in Rong Zhai, every Saturday afternoon, Rong Desheng and his wife would come from the city, live downstairs, and leave on Sunday afternoon.After dinner, they must talk upstairs or downstairs for about two hours. Qian Mu asked Rong Desheng, "How do you feel about achieving such a fruitful life in your life?" Rong replied, "In life, you must die, and you leave empty-handed. What is the meaning of money? It is not heard that it can be passed down to generations. Then, Rong Desheng mentioned a bridge he built in Nantong.As early as 1934, on the 60th birthday of Rong Desheng, he vowed to build 100 bridges in Wuxi and Changzhou to benefit the township. Over the years, 88 bridges of various sizes were built. One of them, Baojie Bridge, is 375 meters long and 7.6 meters wide. , 60 bridge piers (to show the 60th birthday), when it was called "the first bridge in the south of the Yangtze River".Rong Desheng said to Qian Mu, "The only thing that can be left as a memorial in life is this bridge. It is the only bridge to return to the village. In the future, people in Wuxi will probably only rely on this bridge when they know that there is a Rong Desheng."

During the time when they had a knee-to-neck conversation, Rong Desheng was struggling with the operation of Shenxin Cotton Mill. He couldn't even gather the working capital to maintain production. The procedures for applying for cotton loans from the state-owned bank were complicated. Getting a loan is hard.Under such circumstances, the Rong family had no choice but to sell futures in exchange for some cash. However, after the inventory was sold, it was difficult to replenish cotton in time, and the flower price rose every day.Therefore, the more short orders are thrown, the greater the loss, and when customers come to pick up the goods when they expire, many of them cannot be cashed in. The so-called "business" is at the end of the road.

Therefore, Rong Desheng's pessimism is not only because of lamenting the impermanence of life, but also because of his bewilderment about the current economy and state affairs.For the entrepreneurial group, it was really a spring without a future. Since the start of the civil war, the situation of the Kuomintang has gone from bad to worse.At the beginning of the war, the strength of the Kuomintang and Communist armies was 4.3 million to 1.27 million. The equipment of the former was far more important. More importantly, it had the entire state apparatus and the support of the US government. Therefore, Chiang Kai-shek once predicted: "In 3 Within 6 months, the Communist Party can be wiped out.” However, the national army will be defeated in almost every battle, and it will retreat steadily. According to the observation of the American consultant General Badawi: “Since I took office, no battle has been due to lack of arms. equipment.” By the autumn of 1947, the PLA had controlled most of the Northeast and the Central Plains, and the ratio of KMT and CCP forces had changed to 3.65 million to 2.49 million, and the optimism of the KMT disappeared.

China in 1948 was the most chaotic country in the true sense.It fits all the characteristics of a "bad era" - it reminds people of the late Qing Dynasty around 1910: everyone knows that this will not work, and even many people understand what a good way and a good method should be. However, , I just can't change the status quo, so I can only watch myself sinking with this era, and eventually die together.In this bad era of mud and rocks, the more drastic the change, the easier it is to lead to further deterioration of the situation. As early as September 1946, when the war started, Wang Yunsheng, the editor-in-chief of Ta Kung Pao, described the current economic situation at that time in the article "Three Destinations of the Future of China's Current Situation": The downside depends on inflation. Prices are skyrocketing, wages are skyrocketing, people are emaciated, industry is suffocating, and bureaucratic capital and comprador class are developed alone. The government is drinking dove and taking drugs every day, and the people are struggling and moaning every day. If this continues, the flood will come. The collapse of the economy is no longer a surprise." Chu Anping, the founder of "Observation", analyzed all social strata in an editorial in March 1947: "The supporters of the current regime were originally urban citizens, including Catholics and Catholics. Personnel, intellectuals, business people. This group of people does not have a good impression of the Nanjing regime. The KMT’s domineering behavior has made liberal thinkers deeply disgusted; All enthusiasm is lost; government officials indulge in corruption and cheating, and they make all kinds of troubles, which make people in business circles full of resentment; the skyrocketing prices caused by financial failure and continuous civil war make the citizens of cities resentful."

The scene described by Wang Yunsheng and Chu Anping has not changed at all in the next two years.Zhang Qun, Chiang Kai-shek's long-term chief of staff, succeeded Song Ziwen as the head of the Executive Yuan. Although he also tried to reform the economy, he had little success and failed to find the right way.With the delay of the war, the financial situation became worse and worse. The treasury revenue accounted for only 5% of the expenditure, and the proportion of military expenditure was astonishingly high. The military expenditure in the Northeast alone accounted for 40% of the total expenditure. The government's finances were actually bankrupt.

On the surface of the market, what is reflected is uncontrollable inflation.Prices in the Kuomintang-controlled area are like a wild horse running wild. The Associated Press sent a cable on July 24, 1947, which gave a very ironic price comparison: 100 French currency can buy items, two cows in 1937, one cow in 1938, and one cow in 1941 A pig, a chicken in 1943, a fish in 1945, an egg in 1946, and a third of a box of matches in 1947. According to the statistics of "Ta Kung Pao" on August 16, 1948, taking the living index before the war as a comparison, the price of food in the first half of August increased by 3.9 million times, the price of housing increased by 770,000 times, and the price of clothing increased by 6.52 million times. The average increase in the second half of the month was 90%.In order to express concreteness, the newspaper on that day circled a short message in the form of lace news, "Pancake fried dough sticks, 100,000 yuan each." "Observation" magazine also gave it in the article "China's Economic Situation in the Past Seven Months" The same data analysis: "Over eight years of long-term war of resistance, prices have only increased by 2,400 times. It has not been three years since the victory, but Shanghai prices have increased by 14,000 times compared with the thirty-fourth year of the Republic of China (1945). Especially Since the beginning of this year, it has been even more astonishing. The general price index in the third week of July was 4.78 million times that of the pre-war period, which was 30 times higher than that in the last week of December last year. The sharp rise in major necessities such as textiles, fuel, and food is an important factor in people's lives. The burden has increased, causing people to panic."

Looking at it today, the hyperinflation in 1948 was caused by a combination of the following four reasons. The first and most important one is the imbalance of fiscal revenue and expenditure.In order to make ends meet, they had to rely on the issuance of new banknotes. In 1947, the circulation of legal currency reached more than 30 trillion yuan, which was 10 times that of the previous year and 25 times that of 1945.By the second quarter of 1948, 660 trillion yuan of legal currency had been issued, equivalent to 470,000 times the amount issued on the eve of the Anti-Japanese War.Of course, there is only one result of issuing banknotes indiscriminately, and that is to induce inflation.

Second, the general civil war destroyed productivity, and the decline of industrial and agricultural production naturally led to the drying up of tax sources.In order to support the war, the national economy is still dominated by heavy industry, and all industries in the field of people's livelihood are depressed, thus driving the continuous rise of consumer prices.In rural areas, however, a large amount of farmland has become a battlefield, the labor force has been conscripted into the army in batches, food production has continued to decline, and rural productivity has deteriorated to the extreme.

Third, corrupt officials, bureaucrats and warlords take advantage of the fire to loot.Exorbitant taxes imposed by local governments intensified the conflict between the government and the people. In Hebei Province, one mu of land was taxed for one stone, and the lowest was five or six buckets. The taxation exceeded the harvest.Every time the Kuomintang army went to a place, it formed a "military-civilian cooperation station" consisting of the party, the government and the army, and forcibly confiscated daily necessities for military supplies from the villages at half the market price. The Kuomintang pays 10,000 taxes." Financier Zi Yaohua recorded in his memoirs, "The central bank chartered planes to send cash to various places to pay military expenses, and the military and political officials in various places immediately converted them into gold dollar bills, and then chartered planes to transport them back to Shanghai. Speculative arbitrage. The central bank’s special car transporting banknotes to the north sometimes turns around halfway and drives south.” The KMT and Communist armies had long confronted each other in Xuzhou, Jiangsu. Banks opened branches one after another to buy gold banknotes.

Fourth, the market is fragmented, resulting in a shortage of raw materials.Northeast China and the Central Plains of North China are China’s most important food, raw cotton and mineral producing areas. Since these areas were seized by the People’s Liberation Army, the supply of raw materials for factories in the Kuomintang-controlled areas has suddenly become a problem. The border region government implemented a strict embargoed export list of commodities, the most important of which were grain and cotton, livestock, and copper and iron metals. In 1947, the country’s cotton output was 11 million tons, and the enterprises in the Kuomintang-controlled areas could only receive 30%. The textile industry therefore reduced production by 20%. mud.A big city like Jinan is surrounded by liberated areas, like an isolated island.By the end of 1948, with the liberation of the whole of Northeast China and Tangshan in Hebei Province, the supply of steel and coal to Shanghai was completely shut down.In order to save Shanghai, in February 1949, the Kuomintang government had to entrust Du Yuesheng to call Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai in the name of the chairman of the National Shipping Industry Federation, requesting permission for Shanghai ships to go to northern ports and exchange flour for coal.Mao and Zhou Fudian agreed, and Du Yuesheng brought 300,000 tons of flour to Qinhuangdao Port in exchange for 100,000 tons of Kailuan coal, which solved the danger of coal shortage in Shanghai.It can be seen from this that the transposition of strength and weakness has become an irreversible fact.

Inflation caused the people to live in dire straits and complaints abounded. The national government was not only helpless in governance, but also suppressed democrats and newspapers in an attempt to suppress speech. On July 11 and 15, 1946, democracy professors Li Gongpu and Wen Yiduo were killed by Kuomintang agents in Kunming. On May 20, 1947, a parade of 6,000 students broke out in Nanjing, shouting "anti-hunger, anti-civil war, and anti-persecution" "Slogan, military and police repression, "Wen Wei Po", "Xin Min Bao" and "Lianhe Evening News" disregarded the ban and reported truthfully. The Shanghai Garrison Command "continuously published news that hindered the military and intended to subvert the government and disrupt public order." For the reason, the three newspapers were ordered to be sealed up, and three newspapers were sealed in one day, which was the first case in the Republic of China.By 1948, almost all free intellectuals had become disheartened. Chu Anping, editor-in-chief of "Observation", wrote in an editorial in July of this year, "We would like to say frankly that although the government is afraid of our criticism, the facts In fact, we are no longer even interested in criticizing this government... What's the use of talking about it? Let's think about it for the government. A government that makes people no longer even have the interest in criticizing it is enough for this government How sad! The poor government doesn’t even have this self-knowledge, and it’s still scratching its head and trying to figure out how to close non-governmental newspapers and periodicals, it’s pitiful and ridiculous!” When an organization—whether it is a country or an enterprise—is on the verge of total collapse, it will instinctively seek a breakthrough through change. At this time, radical or gradual becomes the two paths to choose.What is intriguing is that in the late Qing Dynasty and the late Republic of China, the rulers all chose a radical path, and the final result was to accelerate the speed of demise. From March 29 to May 1, 1948, the Kuomintang held the "Constitutional National Congress" and announced "returning power to the people". Chiang Kai-shek was elected as the first president of the Republic of China after the constitutional implementation. In the cabinet, Weng Wenhao, a well-known geologist and former Minister of Economic Affairs, served as the head of the Executive Yuan. Weng Wenhao quickly formed an unprecedentedly luxurious "doctoral cabinet", the vast majority of its members are PhD graduates from top international universities. Weng himself has a PhD from the University of Leuven in Belgium, and others such as Foreign Minister Wang Shijie has a Ph.D. Doctor of Law, Minister of Education Zhu Jiahua, Minister of Social Affairs Gu Zhenggang and Minister of Food Guan Jiyu are all PhDs from the University of Berlin, Minister of Justice Xie Guansheng and President of the Supreme Court Xie Yingzhou are PhDs from the University of Paris, Minister of Transport Yu Dawei is a doctorate from Harvard University, Minister of Justice Wang Panghui is Wu Guozhen, a Ph.D. from Yale University and mayor of Shanghai, is a Ph.D. from Princeton University. The only "soil turtle" is Wang Yunwu, Minister of Finance. He is the former general manager of the Commercial Press and the inventor of the famous "square number search method".It was this cabinet composed of doctoral elites that quickly blew the clarion call for reform. They launched a dazzling set of economic reform "combined punches", attacking simultaneously from three directions: fiscal and monetary policies, industrial marketization, and corruption control, in an attempt to The building collapsed immediately. This is an extremely bold, Jedi counter-offensive reform charge, and its process and ending are both sad and ridiculous.In the international financial history of later generations, it has become one of the most typical negative lesson plans. The Weng cabinet chose currency reform as a strategic breakthrough for the charge.They believe that the excessive issuance and inflation of the past few years have brought the legal currency to an end, so a firm currency reform must be carried out. Wang Yunwu proposed to use the gold securities deposited by the central bank as a guarantee to issue gold round notes to replace the legal currency. The method of implementation is Use local administrative forces to redeem or store gold and foreign currencies held by the people, and further strengthen the control of the economy.This major plan was quickly approved by Chiang Kai-shek, and it was introduced hastily without any feasibility analysis. The big reform started on August 19, 1948.On this day, the Kuomintang held a central political meeting and passed the reform plan for gold-dollar coupons proposed by the Executive Yuan. That night, Chiang Kai-shek issued the "Financial and Economic Emergency Punishment Order" in the name of the president. are published.The decree announced that "from now on, the gold circle coupons will be used as the standard currency, and the total issuance limit will be 2 billion yuan. Before November 20, the ratio of 3 million yuan in French currency to one yuan of gold circle coupons, and 300,000 yuan of Northeast circulation notes to one yuan of gold circle coupons will be limited." , to redeem issued legal tender and Northeast Circulation Notes; to redeem gold, silver, silver coins and foreign currency certificates owned by the people within a time limit; to register and manage the foreign exchange assets deposited abroad by the people of the country within a time limit." All prices across the country were frozen at the level of August 19, It is the "August 19 price limit".The decision-makers are well aware of the importance of this reform. On the 20th, the "Central Daily" published an editorial saying, "We must know that reforming the currency system is like cutting off an inflamed cecum. perish together." The market-oriented reform of state-owned enterprises was launched at the same time as the currency reform.This topic has been discussed repeatedly for more than 20 years. As early as February 1947, in order to quell the price and financial turmoil caused by the "gold wave", the government promulgated the "Economic Emergency Measures Plan", which officially proposed the state-owned The policy plan for the sale of business and the reduction of state-owned shares, but the specific implementation measures have never been introduced. Now that the building is about to collapse, the transfer of state-owned shares is prescribed as a life-saving prescription.At the same time as the reform of the golden round coupons, the Executive Yuan announced the market-oriented restructuring of the equity of five large state-owned enterprises, including China Textile Construction Corporation, the state-owned China Merchants Group, Taiwan Sugar Corporation, Taiwan Paper Corporation, and Tianjin Paper and Pulp Corporation. Transformed into a joint stock company, and then sold 30% of the shares to the public, these five companies were the largest and most influential state-owned enterprises in China at that time.Due to the urgency of the situation, the reorganization of the five major companies was hastily announced and completed in just one week, which once again demonstrated the efficiency and roughness of national power. In the view of Weng Wenhao and others, the sale of the state-owned assets of the five major companies will achieve two strategic goals, one is to promote the market-oriented transformation of state-owned enterprises, and the other is to serve as a supporting measure for the reform of the golden round coupons.According to their calculations, the total amount of shares transferred by the five major companies is 564 million yuan in gold circle bonds, equivalent to 1700 trillion yuan in legal currency, which is almost equivalent to a quarter of the total amount of gold circle bonds issued.Using these physical assets as "physical reserves" plus the gold in the treasury is enough to guarantee the success of the gold round bonds and enhance the public's confidence in redemption. Weng Wenhao, Wang Yunwu and others know that the key to the success of currency or property rights reforms lies in the reform of official administration, that is, whether they can curb the speculative power of the whole country and truly control prices at the "August 19 price limit". superior.At this time, Weng's "doctor's cabinet" got a strong supporter, and he was Chiang Kai-shek's eldest son, Chiang Ching-kuo, who was 38 years old at the time.On August 20th, he arrived in Shanghai as the deputy economic control supervisor of the Shanghai Economic Control Zone (the supervisor is concurrently served by Yu Hongjun, president of the Central Bank), and supervised the battle in Shanghai, the largest industrial and commercial city in the country.The whole country knows that the success or failure of the reform depends entirely on the Shanghai campaign of Mr. Chiang. Chiang Ching-kuo—the later creator of Taiwan's economic miracle—has a deep aversion to party-state corruption, and has united a group of young elites within the Kuomintang around him.He appeared in Shanghai as a young revolutionary, and his high-spirited spirit reminds people of Chiang Kai-shek, a Huangpu soldier who came here on a tall horse 21 years ago. He seems to want to reproduce the glory of his fathers here, and thus establish himself in the Chinese political arena. status.Chiang Ching-kuo held a review of 100,000 youths in Zhaofeng Park (now Zhongshan Park), and announced the establishment of the "Executive Yuan's Anti-Insurgency National Construction Brigade" and "Great Shanghai Youth Service Corps" composed of 3,000 people. After the meeting, a huge demonstration was held , more than 100 motorcycles opened the way, followed by dozens of light armored vehicles and more than 1,000 horses, followed by a parade of tens of thousands of people, shouting "Strictly implement the August 19 price limit" and "No hoarding!" , "Down with profiteers!", "Only hit tigers, not flies!" A few days later, he led six military and police units in Shanghai twice, armed to the teeth, to search commodity warehouses and water and land transportation places throughout the city.In order to grasp the real prices, he privately visited the small vegetable market through a micro-service, and copied the prices of vegetables and fish on that day.He also set up 11 "People's Service Stations" to accept whistleblowers and reports. Shanghai has not seen such a campaign of purges for many years, and the slogan "Only kill tigers, not flies!" is really eye-catching.Chiang Ching-kuo's "fighting tigers" aimed to achieve two goals, one was to control inflation to stabilize the current situation, and the other was to attack bureaucratic capital groups to restore popular support.He himself knew who the target of the reform was. He wrote in his diary: "Since the announcement of the new economic plan, ordinary citizens are more optimistic about the reform of the currency system and economic control, while government officials are more optimistic about it." Skepticism. The prices of daily necessities have risen sharply in the past two days. It is not small businessmen who are disturbing the financial market, but big capitalists and big businessmen. So if you want to cut, you have to start from the 'big head'." Sure enough, every one that fell into his hands was a "tiger". On the second day after the "Financial and Economic Emergency Punishment Order" was issued, on August 21, "Ta Kung Pao" published a press release by reporter Ji Chongwei, "The rich and powerful have searched for gold bonds, and anonymous people have sold a large number of stocks", The article stated that “on the morning of the 19th, an anonymous person arrived in Shanghai by night train from Nanjing. After getting off the bus, he hurried to a familiar stock account without washing his face or eating, and sold 30 million shares of Yong Yarn (Yongan Spinning Factory ), according to yesterday’s stock market crash, this person can make a profit of about 400 to 500 billion yuan.” As soon as this article came out, the market was in an uproar, and the reform of the currency system was a national core secret. Some people were the first to learn of the profit from reselling. Jiang Jingguo used guns to force the exchange to hand over its accounts, and found out two large investors who sold stocks on the 19th. Li Guolan was the wife of Tao Qiming, the confidential secretary of the Ministry of Finance. Tao confessed that she had learned the confidential information from Xu Baiqi, the chief secretary of the Ministry of Finance. The three were arrested immediately and Tao was executed.Another big family named Du Weiping turned out to be the son of Du Yuesheng, the boss of the Chinese underworld and an old friend of Chiang Kai-shek for many years.Chiang Ching-kuo was not relentless, and ordered Du Weiping to be arrested and handed over to a special court for public trial for financial speculation and sentenced to 8 months in prison. Xiao Jiang even dared to fight Xiao Du, which was a real move. In the next month or so, 64 businessmen involved in speculation were imprisoned. Qi Zaiyu, the captain of the brigade, and Wang Chunzhe, the manager of Linwang Company who was a hoarder, were executed by shooting at the public trial.Jiang Jingguo was determined to fight to the end with speculators, officials and businessmen. He delivered a speech "Where to Shanghai?" He said: "We believe that in order to overwhelm the power of profiteers and to stabilize the lives of the people in the city, speculators will not be defeated and adventurers will not be driven away." If the nouveau riche are not wiped out, the people of Shanghai will never be at peace!... Many businessmen in Shanghai are able to make a fortune because they have two weapons made by our shop: one is to spread rumors and deceive, and the other is to collude with corrupt officials. If officials collude with businessmen, the government will punish them even more!" Under Chiang Ching-kuo's iron-fisted attack, prices in Shanghai were once stabilized within the "August 19 line of defense," and citizens lined up obediently to exchange their gold and dollar bills for gold-dollar coupons.In his office, Chiang Ching-kuo took turns interviewing entrepreneurs in Shanghai day and night, advising them to take out hard currency one by one, otherwise, once discovered, they would be severely punished. Gold bars and $2.5 million.By October, Shanghai had exchanged a total of 1.14 million taels of gold, 34.52 million U.S. banknotes, 11 million Hong Kong dollars, and 960,000 taels of silver, with a total value of 200 million U.S. dollars.Commercial banks also declared their retained foreign exchange reserves to the central bank before the end of September.In the whole process of currency system reform, Shanghai is the area with the best exchange effect. Every time Jiang Jingguo knocked down a "tiger", it was like an electric shock was given to the dying "party-state body". He hoped that a miracle would happen.However, the next "tiger" was finally beyond his reach. At the end of September, Chiang Ching-kuo convened a meeting of industrial and commercial representatives in Shanghai in the Pudong Building, and reiterated the purpose of "fighting tigers". He has to blame himself. However, I have a request, which is also the unanimous request of everyone present at the meeting today, that is, please ask Mr. Jiang to send someone to the Yangzi Subsidiary to investigate." All eyes were on Jiang Jingguo, and Jiang immediately responded loudly, "Yangtze Subsidiary If there is any illegal act, I will definitely bring it to justice.” The chairman of the Yangtze Company is Kong Lingkan, the eldest son of Kong Xiangxi.Chiang Kai-shek's wife, Soong Meiling, had no children, and she treated this nephew as her own, and loved her the most.In the past few years, the Yangtse Company has been the largest government-run enterprise that resells foreign exchange and smuggled commodities. Since the reform of the Golden Yuan Bonds, it has also been the most arrogant hoarder in Shanghai. On October 7, Chiang Ching-kuo finally took action against Yangzi. He ordered a search of Yangzi's Shanghai headquarters and sealed up all the company's warehouses.The next day, major domestic newspapers rushed to report on the "Yangtze Company hoarding case", and the voice of "liquidating the wealthy family" suddenly arose. The company was investigated, Kong Lingkan cried to Song Meiling, Song made a special trip to Shanghai, and asked the two to meet and reconcile at Kong's house on Yongjia Road.Song Meiling had no choice but to move the last trump card.At that time, Chiang Kai-shek was presiding over a military meeting on the front line in Beiping. He was urgently summoned by his wife and flew back overnight to deal with family affairs.He scolded Jiang Jingguo severely, and within half an hour of the conversation between father and son, Xiao Jiang walked out of the office dejectedly.The next day, the Shanghai Police Department held a press conference, announcing that "all the materials seized by the Yangzi Company have been registered with the Social Bureau." Dazhong Evening News and Zhengyan Bao, which actively reported on the "Yangzi Case", were ordered to suspend publication.Jia Yibin, an old subordinate of Jiang Jingguo, came to ask Jiang Jingguo whether the Yangzi case should be handled or not.With a dark face, Jiang said very dejectedly, "I am filial but not loyal. Loyalty and filial piety cannot be both." In this way, the sensational "Yangtze Case" ended in such an absurd way, which also means that Chiang Ching-kuo's "Tiger Fighting" operation in Shanghai came to an abrupt end.After the Yangtze Company was "released", Jiang Jingguo's hard-earned purge authority suddenly froze, and market confidence collapsed instantly. From October onwards, prices in Shanghai once again soared. They can be seen everywhere, cashmere cigarettes and western medicines are all snapped up, and it is unheard of to occupy an area outside the door of the pharmacy.” Cao Juren, a famous reporter in the Republic of China and a friend of Chiang Ching-kuo, recorded that in those days Chiang “almost drank every day, got very drunk, He cried and laughed wildly. This is obviously a scam. He once called on the common people to cooperate with him, but the common people have left him far away... Some people mentioned Jingguo and said he was a political liar. Some people forgive him and say this It's all because Concubine Yang Gui is not good, and if he is harmed, Mr. Jiang's political life will be in decline." The half-way running of the "Tiger Fighting" operation means the miscarriage of the currency reform, and the other wing of the Weng-style reform, the transfer of property rights of the five major state-owned enterprises is also not going smoothly.To the surprise of policy makers, these "fragrant" assets have also become unclaimed "waste". During the nearly two months from September 10 to early November, the stock sales of the five major companies were quite unsatisfactory.The total amount sold was 7,844,300 yuan, less than 2% of the total sales to social programs.Among them, Taiwan Sugar Co., Ltd., which sold the most, sold 3.77 million yuan, but it was less than 8% of the total planned to be sold to the market.Only 54,000 yuan of stock in China Merchants Steamship was sold, less than 0.02% of the total planned sale.The shares available for sale in Tianjin Paper Co., Ltd. were even sold for only 4,000 yuan. According to the description of the media at the time, it was "a rather miserable scene." On September 27, Shanghai's "Business Daily" published an editorial "Why are state-owned enterprise stocks unpopular?" 》, thinking that "the reason is not related to the technology sold, but in the business organization itself...not unexpected, but expected".Because, "since part of the state-owned enterprise is given over to the people", "it is absolutely not possible to arouse people's interest in investment by changing it to a company organization in name, and the object of investment that the people are willing to invest in is a promising and profitable enterprise."Then, this editorial further analyzes the reasons for the cold reception of stock sales from three aspects. One is that the government has backtracked on its promises and has no credibility: "China Merchants was originally state-owned when it was founded, but later changed to a government-business joint venture, and finally returned to the state-run. Now it is going back to a government-private partnership." It is the initiative of the government and private shares cannot participate in the opinion." "Tongshang, Siming, Zhongshi, and Guohuo's so-called small four banks were originally private banks. After the government participated, they were transformed into government-business joint ventures. Now they have to take back the official shares and turn them into private banks. With such repeated changes, investors feel that There is no guarantee”, so how can it be possible to “actively participate?” The second is the poor efficiency of state-owned enterprises, which cannot be compared with private enterprises: "The administrative efficiency of state-owned enterprises is often not as good as that of private enterprises. However, the government makes it inconvenient for state-owned enterprises to focus on efficiency through various procedures. Isn’t this a loss for the enterprise itself? As for the waste of manpower, material and financial resources, it is beyond the imagination of private enterprises.” “A business organized by a company has a bureaucratic system. , Investors will of course be discouraged." Third, China's state-owned enterprises receive less assistance from the government, but do more for the government. After being converted into a government-business joint venture, investors will also have to pay for it: "For example, China Textile Corporation supplies cloth, and Taiwan Sugar Corporation supplies sugar. The supply of China Merchants’ military errands is beyond the reach of private enterprises,” but “state-owned enterprises will bear the brunt of the government’s orders.”Moreover, "It is said that the current state-owned enterprises pay a lot of compensation in order to serve the government, but they often neglect one thing and neglect the other in serving the society. Now that the company organization has been changed, the power is still in the hands of the government. If the company has to pay a lot of money, then investors Are you also going to be involved?" Investors have concerns, and of course they will "hesitant" to invest in state-owned enterprises. This analysis basically reflects the judgments of entrepreneurs and ordinary investors on the reform at that time. Behind it is actually two words-"disappointment", disappointment in the past, disappointment in the present, and disappointment in the future.From the timing of a major reform, one can clearly judge the reform sincerity and determination of those in charge, and thus determine its success or failure.The inspirations of this case for future generations are: First, any reform must be built on the basis of confidence, trust and trust.Second, market-oriented reforms involving state-owned assets should be carried out under the premise of a rising macro economy and stable policies. If the economic crisis breaks out or the current situation is greatly turbulent, the effect will be minimal, and even fatal negative effects will be produced. So far, the vigorous economic reform has failed miserably. On November 1, the Executive Yuan had no choice but to agree to liberalize grain prices, and the price limit policy completely collapsed.The next day, Weng Wenhao publicly acknowledged the failure of economic reforms. He said that the government had failed in all aspects of balancing revenue and expenditure, preventing capital outflows, banning usury, and increasing bank deposits. He and Wang Yunwu respectively took the blame and resigned.On the same day, Chiang Ching-kuo gave a farewell speech in Shanghai. He said, "Reviewing the work of the past 70 days, I deeply feel that the new forces have not yet matured, and the reactionary forces have formed a front, colluding together. We have high emotions and candid hearts. , but still lacks fighting experience, not enough to deal with treacherous and cunning economic enemies." After saying this, he left Shanghai sadly.He later displayed his ambitions and created Taiwan's economic miracle as the "Four Tigers of East Asia" and became one of the best regional leaders in Asia. However, it was 30 years later. The consequences of the failure of the reform of the golden round coupons were disastrous.After the downfall of the Weng cabinet, the economy fell into chaos again. Inflation showed a trend of retaliatory rise. The price surged faster than before the reform. Take the food in Shanghai as an example. 20 yuan gold circle coupons, each bag of flour (49 pounds) is priced at 7 yuan gold circle coupons, and cooking oil is priced at 58 yuan gold circle coupons per 22 gallons. more than double. "Shenbao" reported that Shanghai Chint New Cotton Cloth Store changed its prices up to 16 times a day, and the staff's monthly salary could only buy a bar of soap. On November 10, a large-scale wave of rice looting broke out in the capital Nanjing. The police could not stop the crazy citizens with gunshots. On that day, 22 rice shops were robbed.The unparalleled depreciation speed of the golden round coupons has become a joke in the currency history of China and the world. (The flood of money and inflation in the 1940s was very exaggerated. There is a statistic in the book "Compilation of Price Data Before and After the Liberation of Shanghai": If the currency issuance in June 1937 (before the "July 7th Incident") was 100, The issuance in August 1945 was 28,200, 47.07 million in August 1948, and 14.45 trillion in May 1949; the price index in Shanghai was 100 in June 1937, and 864 in August 1945. million, 564 million in August 1948, and 3.63 billion × 1 million in May 1949. The country is in chaos and cannot be recalculated.) Objectively analyzing Weng’s cabinet’s radical reforms and Chiang Ching-kuo’s 70-plus days of “fighting tigers” in Shanghai from the perspective of economic governance can be said to be an idealistic struggle doomed to failure.The only surprise is that it ended so quickly and shamelessly. Given the weak fiscal revenue at the time, trying to use gold coupons instead of legal tender to stabilize prices and people's hearts was simply a whimsical "gamble". Coupled with the defeat of the Kuomintang army on the battlefield, the failure of the reform was only a matter of time and method. That's all.Zhang Gongquan analyzed in the future that "the government desperately bet its political prestige and future on the short-lived currency reform-that is, the implementation of the gold dollar coupon plan. This is enough to show that the political power of the government no longer exists, and the people respect it. confidence has been swept away, hastening its eventual downfall." Chiang Ching-kuo's "fighting the tiger" in Shanghai was the last battle of the young elites in the Kuomintang system to save the regime and the economy. On the operational level, there are many things that can be discussed.The bottom line is that regulation is strong and supply is insufficient.Chiang Ching-kuo used slogans, submachine guns, and "fighting tigers" to forcibly suppress the rise in prices, but he did not work hard to increase supply, and he forced factories and stores to sell goods, which in fact passed on the cost of reform. , causing entrepreneurs to either fall into suspension of production or to violate the law.Dong Zhujun, the founder of Jin Jiang Hotel, described her countermeasures in her autobiography "A Century of Me": "At that time, my method was to borrow gold yuan coupons to hoard goods. Once the gold yuan coupons depreciated and collapsed, I would sell a little of the inventory. After making this decision, he decisively took emergency measures to save Jinjiang, solicited gold coupons from friends everywhere, risked stockpiling, but was afraid that others would leak the news, so he had to secretly buy enough The inventory used for the year is stored elsewhere, and two sets of accounts are secretly prepared in the middle of the night, just in case the tax bureau checks the accounts.” Dong’s practice was very common at the time, which was obviously against the rules. Let her survive the catastrophe.As we will see in the next chapter, more than a year later, Chen Yi and Chen Yun learned the lessons of Chiang Ching-kuo when they purge Shanghai. The only "constructive consequence" of currency reform was the accidental birth of the renminbi.金圆券的滥发导致全国金融市场极不稳定，11月6日，中共冀鲁豫边区下令严禁金圆券的使用与入境，并停止金银自由买卖。同时，中共中央决定改变各解放区各自发行货币的办法，成立中国人民银行，发行统一的货币，它被定名为人民币。 11月6日，储安平在《观察》上发表社论《一场烂污》，算是给这场荒唐不经的经济改革撰下了墓志铭，他写道—— “在全国空前骚动、朝野争战多日之后，政府终于放弃了他那'只许成功不许失败'的限价政策！过去一个月真像是一场噩梦！在这一个月里，数以亿计的人民，在身体上、在财产上，都遭受到重大的痛苦和损失。人民已经经历到他们从未经历过的可怖的景象。他们不仅早已丧失了人生的理想、创造的活力，以及工作的兴趣，这次，又丧失了他们多年劳动的积储，并更进一步被迫面临死亡。每天在报上读到的，在街上看到的，无不令人气短心伤。饥馑和恐怖、愤怒和怨恨，笼罩了政府所统治着的土地。地不分才南西北，人不分男女老幼，没有一个人相信这个金圆券”。抢购抢购逃卖逃卖，像大洋上的风暴，席卷了整个社会的秩序。抢购是一种“贞言的反叛”，这是二十年来中国人民受尽压迫、欺骗、剥削，在种种一言难尽的苦痛经验中所自发的一种求生自卫的行为…… 严格的说来，要以改革币制来解放中国当前的经济危机，本来是个幻想。发行法币的是这个政府，发行金圆券的也是这个政府，这同一个政府，法币的信用既然不能维持，难道金圆券的信用就能维持了吗？有人认为这次的改革币制和最近的放弃限价，都是为了人民。实际上真是如此吗？老实说，无非因为当前的经济情景实在不太像样，有点可怕，假如不改，恐怕政府要站不住了！改吧，改吧，乱七八糟先改它一下，暂时麻醉一下人民；后来弄到全国抢购，乖乖不得了，看上去可能要出什么乱子，威胁政权，所以只好放弃限价。这一切，说得漂亮是解除人民的苦痛，骨子里还不是要安定自己的政权？ 而在改革币制时，政府命令人民将平时辛辛苦苦积蓄的一点金钞，一律兑成金圆券；政府只要印刷机器转几转，可是多少老百姓的血汗积蓄，就滚进了政府的腰包里去了。政府拿这些民间的血汗积蓄，去支持他的战乱，使所有国家的一点元气，都送到炮口里轰了出去！上海的老百姓都在回想他们在敌伪时期所经过的一切，日本人管得再凶，也没有弄到连饭都没有吃，连买大便纸也要排队的程度；日本人逼得再紧，也没有把民间的金银收完——就靠这点元气，胜利后各地慢慢恢复各种小工商业的活动。现在呢，一切完了，一切完了，作孽作孽，每一个吃亏的老百姓心底里都在咒诅，有一肚皮眼泪说不出来！ 七十天的梦是过去了，在这七十天中，卖大饼的因为买不到面粉而自杀了，小公务员因为买不到米而自尽了，一个主妇因为米油俱绝而投河了，一个女儿的母亲因为购肉而被枪杀了，还有不知多少悲惨的故事报纸上没有传出来。我相信这些人都是死难瞑目，阴魂不散的。许多良善的小市民，都听从政府的话，将黄金白银美钞兑给了政府，可是曾几何时，现在的金圆券已比八·一九时期打了个对折对折了！惨啊！惨啊！冤啊冤啊！一个只要稍微有点良心的政治家，对此能熟视无睹，无疚于中吗！ 最后，储安平用决裂般的口吻给出了结论，这既是对金圆券改革的盖棺之论，也是对南京国民政府二十年的一次总清算——“七十天是一场小烂污，二十年是一场大烂污！烂污烂污！二十年来拆足！烂污！” 如储安平所言，国民党在1948年的经济总失败，其实是政治和军事总失败的一部分。那是一个缺乏承诺感的年份。政党对民众、军队对平民，甚至国家对国家，一切的关系都显得那么的虚伪和脆弱。 国共对决到了最后的关键时刻。 从入秋以来，国共进行了三次具有决定意义的大决战，世称“三大战役”，分别是：9月12日到11月2日的辽沈战役，东北全境解放；11月29日到1949年1月31日的平津战役，华北基本解放；11月6日到1949年1月的淮海战役，长江以北地区基本解放。三大战役，共歼俘国民党军队154.7万人。蒋介石政权大势已去。 1948年11月11日，也就是金圆券改革宣告失败的十天后，追随蒋介石二十多年的“文胆”陈布雷在日记中写道：“不但怕见统帅，甚且怕开会，自己拿不出一些些主意，可以说我的脑筋已油尽灯枯了……”第二天晚上，陈写下十一封遗书，吞服安眠药结束生命。《观察》在评论中写道：“陈布雷敢于在自杀之前，以'停止戡乱，放弃独裁，绝交孔宋'三事直言相谏，谏之不从，以死明志。” 陈布雷死后的一个多月，12月17日，是北京大学的50周年校庆日和胡适57岁的生日，蒋介石夫妇在南京黄浦路官邸专门设寿宴款待胡氏夫妇。耳热酒酣之间，有人奉蒋之意恳请胡适“替政府再做些外援的工作”，胡当场板下脸来说，“这样的国家，这样的政府，我怎样抬得起头来向外人说话。”酒席热情顿时冷到零下。 1949年1月9日，空前惨烈的淮海战役结束，华东战局抵定。14日，解放军用29小时攻下天津，接着和平解放北平。1月21日，蒋介石宣布下野。4月21日，解放军百万雄师过长江，占领国民政府首都南京。毛泽东赋诗一首，电传江南前线，最后两句曰：“天若有情天亦老，人间正道是沧桑。”5月25日，中国最大的工商业城市上海解放。 年底，蒋介石和他的国民党政权逃遁台湾。他带走了277万两国库黄金和故宫里的大部分国宝，此外还开出一张长长的名单，其中包括当时中国最重要的知识分子和企业家。 可是，很多知识分子选择了留下。以1948年9月中央研究院选出的第一届81位院士为例——他们是当时中国最具标志意义的知识分子和科学家，跟着国民党到台湾去的只有9人，去美国的12人，留在大陆迎接解放的达60人，如冯友兰、郭沫若、陈寅恪、李四光、马寅初、梁思成等，占院士总数的74％。后世的台湾史家李敖一言以敝之曰，“蒋介石想搬知识分子，但信誉破产，知识分子不跟他了。” 很多企业家也选择了留下。卢作孚留下了。荣德生和荣毅仁留下了。刘鸿生留下了。简玉阶留下了。 10月1日，中华人民共和国成立，改北平为北京，定为首都。时年56岁的毛泽东在天安门广场上对世界宣告：“中国人民从此站起来了。”