Chapter 48 3. Looking forward to 2020: a round of industrial revitalization

In our expectation, in line with the laws of the market economy and in line with China's current national conditions, it is to provide a fair competition market environment for those investors who are willing and have projects, so that those small and medium-sized enterprises with dreams can compete in the process of competition. Stand at the same starting point as state-owned enterprises.After this unprecedented but not necessarily unprecedented crisis has passed, the focus of our reform should be to create a fair business environment. This is our expectation, and it is also the law that a commercial society should abide by.

Topic introduction: Blueprint for Economic Managers——Great Changes After the Great Crisis Perhaps, when we are in 2020, when our economics professors talk about the changes in the Chinese economy in class, they will regard 2009 as a watershed that must be discussed. This is the midpoint of the great era. Although we have not yet passed halfway through the journey, after nearly 10 years of rapid development, the Chinese economy is currently entering a crossroads of path selection. It is the same as ten years ago, twenty years ago, and thirty years ago. As before, the choice at this crossroads will mean where we will go in the next ten years of development.

The choice made thirty years ago has stopped us from arguing about the system.The choice we made twenty years ago makes us move forward more firmly.The choice ten years ago gave us unprecedented opportunities for development.And now, it's time for us to make a choice. Like every choice, we need to make a decision on the development model and a judgment on the economic structure. This is not only a theoretical exploration, but also an unavoidable problem in reality. The sudden economic crisis has caused us to be attacked in a hurry. In fact, the emergence of this situation is by no means an unexpected surprise attack. No matter in terms of mechanism or time, this crisis has its own inevitability. The reason for coming.

We already know that the reason why we really feel the coming of the economic crisis is that many of our enterprises have experienced crises, the most prominent manifestation of which is the sudden overcapacity of "Made in China", which was originally abundant in production capacity, in a short period of time. The reason why the situation has taken such a sharp turn for the worse, we need to explore it from the perspectives of enterprises and consumers. As far as consumers are concerned, the main reason for enterprises to feel the crisis is that the domestic and foreign consumer markets are shrinking at the same time. The reason for the shrinking of foreign markets lies in the excessive overdraft of their consumers' spending power, while the domestic reason lies in our people. The income is too low, and the consumption power is always hovering at a low level.

As far as enterprises are concerned, it lies in the institutional problems existing in the national industrial structure. For a long time, our economic improvement has always been led by the government. When the government gives a little care to private enterprises, China's small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises will be full of vitality. On the contrary, once the government tightens policies, the result will be The shrinking of private capital and the bankruptcy of small and medium-sized enterprises. It is precisely because we have always lacked attention to private small and medium-sized enterprises that these capitals that should have been the leading force in the national economy have been in a state of intermittent development for a long time. When the economic crisis comes, small and medium-sized enterprises that lack support are facing difficulties. No wonder.

When the country realizes this, it means the coming of change. In fact, since January 14, 2009, the state has successively launched ten industrial adjustment and revitalization plans, which cover a wide range of areas and policy strengths, ranking first in the past 30 years of reform and opening up. However, expectations always deviate from reality to a greater extent. While we are excited about these blueprints, how much change their actual operation will bring to China's economy and China's industrial structure is still unknown. proposition. When such a change occurs, it may not necessarily mean a good start for the Chinese economy.

In the past years, private enterprises have always been the most important boosting force of China's economy. In the "Made in China" myth that appeared in 1998, we did not see any state-owned enterprises. Private enterprises are well-deserved protagonists. However, the protagonist does not necessarily represent the greatest power. What we can see is that almost all private enterprises are squeezed by two forces during their growth. The first source of power lies in cost. We know that manufacturing needs raw materials and resources, and in the resource industry, state-owned capital is a well-deserved monopoly, which means the generation of cost oppression—in almost all In terms of the supply of raw materials, private enterprises must be at the mercy of others, without any bargaining power, and there is no such right in the system.In short, no matter how much these necessary supplies charge, all private companies can do is accept it silently.

The second source of strength lies in financial support. The current situation that private enterprises have difficulty getting loans, high loan interest rates, and short repayment dates has almost become the consensus of everyone.What's more serious than this is that whenever an economic recession or economic crisis occurs, in order to ensure that the state-owned enterprises will not be in danger of "running out of food", no matter whether it is the four major state-owned banks or a group of small and medium-sized local banks, they all abandon them. Private enterprises save funds to ensure the normal operation of state-owned enterprises.

This is an incomprehensible reality. The difficulty lies in the fact that we are still unwilling to make changes when both the internal and external factors of China's rapid economic growth encounter difficulties. As we all know, the foreign trade stimulus caused by "Made in China" and the internal stimulus constituted by the real estate industry are the key to ensure that China's economy has repeatedly achieved growth miracles in the past ten years. At that time, when the bubble in the real estate industry was destined to burst, when we had lost the driving force for economic growth, no one was willing to make changes to open up a new path for a new round of growth in the Chinese economy.

Under the action of the two major plans of "promoting enterprise mergers and reorganization" and "increasing industrial concentration", it is very likely that the policy will be further tilted, that is to say, those state-owned enterprises that have already lost their competitive advantages will become more It is easy to enjoy the dividends brought by various policies, and the state monopoly will be further deepened, leaving smaller living space for small and medium-sized private enterprises. In our expectation, in line with the laws of the market economy and in line with China's current national conditions, it is to provide a fair competition market environment for those investors who are willing and have projects, so that those small and medium-sized enterprises with dreams can compete in the process of competition. Stand at the same starting point as state-owned enterprises.

Just like the experience of western countries, a century-long fair market competition has finally brought about a high degree of concentration in the market structure, and the competitiveness of its excellent enterprises has all been obtained from competition. In turn, attempts to rely on The plan to artificially endow state-owned enterprises and large enterprises with monopoly privileges and ultimately achieve industrial concentration is undoubtedly on the wrong track. After this unprecedented but not necessarily unprecedented crisis has passed, the focus of our reform should be to create a fair business environment. This is our expectation, and it is also the law that a commercial society should abide by.