Chapter 27 2. The software industry—a software dream once in ten years

Although the software industry has unique industrial advantages, in a technologically underdeveloped country like China, these so-called advantages will disappear. One of the most important facts is: Judging from the current development status of various industries in China, its demand for software is far behind the world level, and this determines that it is difficult for China's software industry to achieve a balance between supply and demand! Introduction to the theme: Three characteristics make a star dream—the former spring dream—the long night after waking up from the dream As far as economic laws are concerned, after a long period of gestation, there will inevitably be a period of take-off like a rising sun.

In this stage, there are not only passionate creation and development, but also chaotic and disorderly competition. Every operator may get rich overnight, or may be overturned instantly when encountering risks everywhere. In times of ecstasy or chaos, there are often several rocket industries that rise into the sky. They are the rebels of an era, but they are also the creators of an era. They often appear in a posture that subverts people's usual thinking, and develop at a speed beyond the laws of economics, so that they become the most shining focus and economy of an era. power. Generally, any industry capable of possessing such strength must have at least the following three characteristics.

First, the production cost is low. Second, to be recognized by the society, which includes not only technical recognition, but also recognition in actual operation. Third, there are excellent growth prospects. The three characteristics of the star industry we put forward are aimed at the old industry model. When we go all the way and look back at the industries that have skyrocketed in the past ten years, we will be surprised to find that the most in line with these three The industry with great characteristics is none other than the software industry, and the experience of the software industry in the past ten years has also verified the correctness of this view.

Although viewed from today's perspective, there is fierce competition in the software industry in China and the world, but until today we must admit that the unique operating environment of the software industry is rarely comparable to it . As we mentioned, despite the huge initial cost of developing a new piece of software, when it is turned into a product, it is cheap to produce—a new piece of software can Carved into CDs and sold in large quantities, and with the continuous development of the Internet, the delivery process can even be completed directly on the Internet. It is precisely because of this advantage that the gross profit margin of most software products on the market will even exceed 40%. %!

Compared with traditional industries, software companies have a business model that all companies dream of—all software can be delivered and stored electronically, which means that software companies do not need traditional warehouses at all, and they can There will be no product accumulation due to overcapacity.At the same time, because each software is highly targeted to customers, its sales are often smoother than traditional products. Therefore, all successful software companies are companies that can generate a large amount of free cash flow. More importantly, when human civilization enters the information society, high labor costs force all modern enterprises and individuals to rely on corresponding software, and office automation is imperative, and its improvement in productivity is It must not be taken lightly, and this determines the future of the software industry!

In this field, the most familiar to us is the famous Bill?Bill Gates, who started from scratch and became the richest man in the world relying only on a set of software systems, has a legendary experience that makes us even redder. However, the reason why legends are called legends is because legends are often irreproducible. In fact, in the past 10 years or even longer, the development of China's software industry can almost be described as a dream.So that when we look back on the past today, we have to be dumbfounded and regretful. About the spring dream of China's software industry, we have to start with a person named Song Ruhua. After all, in the history of China's software industry, he was the person closest to Bill Gates.

On a spring day in March 1992, Song Ruhua, who stepped out of a university professorship, pooled 5,000 yuan with a friend and founded "Top Electronic Technology Development Company", whose main business was to shuttle around and help people install computer. Thanks to a chance, Song Ruhua got an order to develop software for automatic printing of invoices. A few years later, he almost became the largest tax software provider in China.However, fate does not always favor a certain person. In the spring of 1996, due to the unified tax calculation software standards of the national tax system, Top's business fell into extinction almost instantly.

However, Song Ruhua, who was born as a professor, is not a person who is easily defeated. After visiting the Bangalore Software Industrial Park in India, he suddenly had a strange idea-whether it is possible for China to create a "Silicon Valley"-style miracle . So, in a cauliflower field in the outer suburbs of Chengdu, the sign of "Western Software Park" was inserted in this way. Only two months later, "Western Software Park" became the first batch of national software industry bases at that time. Almost overnight, Toppo became the most famous high-tech enterprise in China, followed by various supporting policies and social honors.

If we could continue on this road, then the fate of Top, and even the fate of China's software industry, would not be what it is today. However, influenced by this victory, Song Ruhua suddenly realized one thing: in China's business circle In this process, instead of spending your whole life working hard to build a brand and a product, it is better to go beyond and launch a great concept overnight. As a result, the development direction of the "Western Software Park" has quietly deviated greatly. What happened next was just as we had imagined. After completing the backdoor listing, Song Ruhua, who had raised a sum of money, started a nationwide "staking enclosure" campaign.From 1999 to 2002, Top built 27 software parks in a row across the country, and every two months on average, a piece of land would be given the name of a certain software park.

Such an expansion speed naturally brings about a delay in the later stage of construction. In fact, among the 27 software parks, most of them do not even have a software company stationed there, and the only purpose of the built buildings is to shelve them.When all this is finally made public, the devastating effect it brings can be imagined. So, in 2003, all this finally ended in a farce. The bank came to recover the account, the customer came to the door to sue, the listed stock plummeted, and the governments of various places recovered the land. Finally, it collapsed in the wind and rain, and the once beautiful spring dream was shattered, leaving us with a long night after waking up from the dream.

In fact, Song Ruhua's failure, and even the failure of China's software industry this time, are far from being as simple as we have seen. Objectively speaking, Song Ruhua's strategy is not useless, and his insight into the future is further verified by the successful experience in history. As far as the pure software industry is concerned, it does have the status of a core puller in the information society, and the concept of a "software park" is by no means a theory on paper. From the following historical fragments, we can understand its far-sightedness. After the American technician Blanchard invented the steam turbine and the lathe, people could finally mass-produce products with irregular shapes.Affected by this, all industries took a giant step forward, a major breakthrough in manufacturing. Steam turbines and lathes are still widely used in various modern manufacturing industries to this day, but its original application was to make rifle butts.At that time, many industries came from the gun manufacturing industry, because precision is the soul of modern industry, and at that time only arsenals could meet the precision requirements. The most common and familiar products, such as typewriters, sewing machines, bicycles, etc.All of them were produced in the arsenal, or a factory very close to the arsenal.For example, the first bicycle factory was only 500 meters away from the Springfield Armory, because at that time only workers who made guns were able to manufacture all the parts needed for a bicycle. From this example, we can see that when an industry has a decisive leading technology, it is enough to be in the upper reaches of the industrial chain of all industries, just as the arsenal is to the bicycle factory, and the software industry is to the modern industry. It is also indispensable, and Song Ruhua's strategic concept reflects this point, and the reason why Silicon Valley in the United States can become a gathering place for high-tech companies is precisely because of its large gathering of software companies. However, apart from Song Ruhua's over-expansion, there is another factor that determines the heavy damage to Top and even China's software industry. Compared with the former, this factor is the fatal point of failure. Even today, this factor still restricts China's software industry. Development of the software industry. Although the software industry has unique industrial advantages, in a technologically underdeveloped country like China, these so-called advantages will disappear. One of the most important facts is: Judging from the current development status of various industries in China, its demand for software is far behind the world level, and this determines that it is difficult for China's software industry to achieve a balance between supply and demand! Insufficient food will naturally affect the health of the body. In fact, as early as the eve of Top's demise, an expert from Microsoft once estimated for it. To complete the sales of 10 billion yuan, but the total output value of the national software industry at that time was only 30 billion yuan. Even today, although we have jumped several steps in this figure, compared with other countries, this jump speed is almost negligible of. More importantly, the software industry is extremely cyclical, and its sales revenue is constrained by macroeconomic conditions and technology spending budgets in other industries. In an era of economic development or recovery, software companies may achieve high-speed growth, but in an era of economic recession or stagnation, they must bear a heavy blow.In the eyes of many companies in other industries, software is an item that can be deferred in difficult times. In other words, saving money means making money. It is the most effective way to increase income. Because of this, we must recognize the reality that within a country's economic system, the prospect of high-tech industries lacking the support of basic industries is unsustainable. In the past three years, with the help of capital, China's software industry has expanded rapidly, and now it has expanded to more than 2,500 companies. However, we know that among the more than 2,500 companies, the truly large-scale and powerful companies, But it is much less than this number.When the financial crisis came, the situation of those small businesses that were already on the verge of collapse became even more worrying. We can see that in the first quarter of this year, my country's software exports reached US$4.93 billion, an increase of 48.2% over the same period last year. How much profit depends, and the real driving force of the 48.2% growth is the increase in the number of enterprises, or the real strength of the leap. Therefore, a future reality that we can predict is that in the years to come, China's software industry will rarely experience miracles, unless our other industries can give it a new round of support in terms of demand. Otherwise, the long night of China's software industry will continue to live up to its name.