Chapter 16 3. One of the Top 10 Surveys: Rules in China

It is the blind obedience to the existing rules and the thoughtful use of the existing rules that our economy suffers insults and damages, while the real beneficiaries are making the argument of "China's economic threat" while enjoying the benefits. The benefits brought by "Made in China" will bring benefits into the bag while passing on the crisis. In the game with these rule makers who "get cheap and sell well", we show our credulity and immaturity ignorantly, showing a sad and helpless scene. Topic introduction: The first hurdle in the world - the defense of China's economy - the victim of the rules - the real meaning of the rules

For many years to come, when our economics professors will teach economic history in their classrooms, the beginning of the 21st century must be 2001. When the 911 incident, the Enron scandal, the NASDAQ stock market crash and other shocks made the world environment turbulent, China, in the far east, presented a scene of vitality due to the arrival of several good news. The first piece of good news happened on July 13th. The long-time bid for the Olympic Games was finally successful. This allowed a large capital of 280 billion yuan to be invested in infrastructure and venue construction. Its role in stimulating the Chinese economy is extraordinary. of.

The second good news is more concentrated on the spiritual level. Three months later, the Chinese men's football team entered the World Cup finals for the first time, which set off a psychological frenzy among the Chinese people. Compared with the first two, the third piece of good news may not have such a strong impact on the Chinese people, but it undoubtedly has the greatest impact on the Chinese economy, and its significance is also far-reaching. After numerous rounds of verbal wars, the World Trade Organization finally reviewed and approved China's decision to join the WTO. On December 11, China successfully entered the customs and officially became a member of the WTO.

The sudden arrival of the three great news made the Chinese people ecstatic. People at the time commented: "The significance of these three major events is almost equivalent to the three major battles. The important thing is that in these three major battles, China is the ultimate victor. .” Therefore, the Chinese, who are accustomed to talking about omens, experienced an unprecedented good omen in the first year of the new century. If we still have memories of that scene ten years ago, then this memory must still be full. The breath of gentle wind and drizzle. However, when we look back at history after 10 years of experience, and take a look at the so-called three good news, the smiles on our faces will most likely add a bit of bitterness.

First of all, the Chinese men's football team swallowed nine eggs in the World Cup finals, and returned home without any gains. Secondly, we once looked forward to a new round of economic take-off with the Olympic Games as an opportunity, but it did not appear as expected. On the contrary, we have encountered an economic freezing point. The panic is very real. The negative feelings brought to us by these two are strong, but also short-lived. However, compared with the event of joining the WTO, their significance suddenly becomes insignificant. Discussions about the impact of the WTO on China's economy are still going on today, but no matter what the conclusion is, this impact is destined to be a process that lasts almost indefinitely.

The reason for saying this is that the difficulty of entering the customs does not lie in obtaining a promise, but in how not to be eliminated under the competition of the new rules, and this is not an easy task. The so-called "No. 1 customs in the world" of the WTO is by no means in vain. In fact, we have already prepared for it long before we entered the customs. There are still too many things that need to be relearned. In fact, when China enters the international market, the three major problems arising from it quickly lie in front of us in a severe form. One: How to keep the RMB exchange rate stable and not depreciate.

Second: How will we activate the economy and start domestic demand. The third: how to get the state-owned enterprises out of the predicament, which seems to be terminally ill. Judging from the situation at the time, the severe situation brought about by these three major problems was by no means inferior to the international blockade faced after the founding of New China. No matter which of the three problems had problems, the consequences would be unfathomable. As imagined, people even jokingly commented: These are the three mountains pressing on the head of the Chinese economy.And if we want to rank the "three big mountains", then the most urgent one is to ensure that the RMB does not depreciate, but in the long run, the survival of state-owned enterprises is even more anxious.

In view of this situation, China has determined its own three-step plan, that is, under the condition of first ensuring that the RMB does not depreciate, use macro-control policies as a means to start domestic demand, and finally use "reorganization, reform, and strengthening management" as a solution to resolutely implement The capital strategy of "retreat from the country and advance from the people" ensures that the three major problems are properly resolved. In this way, an economic defense war aimed at adapting to the new rules of the international market and defending the achievements of China's reform and opening up broke out at the turn of the century.

In fact, as early as the turn of summer and autumn in 1998, our struggle with international capital began. It is only because of the lack of information that we have been able to see the cruelty of economic war until today. On August 5 of that year, international capital speculators represented by financial tycoon Soros, in order to ensure that the RMB exchange rate was suppressed, fought against the Hong Kong dollar, which has the highest correlation with the RMB. In just one day, international speculators sold more than 20 billion Hong Kong dollars. When the currency was fully absorbed by the Hong Kong government, the same thing happened again the next day. In the following six days, speculators continued to sell Hong Kong dollar, the entire currency market is on fire.

On August 13th, the Chinese government finally intervened in this confrontation. Therefore, with the support of strong funds from the mainland, the Hong Kong government started a direct confrontation with speculators in the stock and futures markets. The final victory came on August 28, when the confrontation finally ushered in a decisive moment. On that day, speculators’ selling was almost crazy, and the Hong Kong government, which was almost exhausted, continued to buy according to the order. When the moment of closing came, the Hang Seng stock index It stopped steadily at the point of 7829, and international speculators finally gave up their arms and surrendered.

This is the most brilliant victory for China in this economic war. During the whole month of strangling, we used our long-reserved strength and adopted the strategy of blocking the Soros Group with a single stroke. Therefore, before the outbreak of the war, we had already won the first hand in this hasty encounter and achieved a rather impressive phased victory. When the pressure of RMB depreciation was relieved, we were able to free up our hands , to solve the latter two more complicated problems. Stimulating domestic demand and getting rid of state-owned enterprises seem to be two unrelated issues, but in essence, these two issues have completely consistent directions. This is to use various means to withdraw the stagnant state-owned capital from the market in stages, and to replace it with more competitive private capital as the main body of the economy, which is what we often refer to as "the country retreats and the people advance." The capital market is turbulent and treacherous, and a careless move may lead to disaster. State-owned capital is restricted by many factors. Although it has strong strength, its huge body also means that it is difficult to turn around. It is inevitable that there will be many scars in the process. Therefore, allowing private capital with stronger competitiveness and more flexible operation to adapt to the new rules of the international market is tantamount to withdrawing the "regular army" from the battlefield and replacing it with "guerrillas" who are responsible for carrying the war to the end.So, what kind of results has this strategy received? Even if we look at it from today's perspective, the intensity of the "retirement of the country and advancement of the people" ten years ago is enough to make us sigh. From the end of the last century until the end of this campaign in 2003, during the four years, the number of state-owned enterprises in China dropped from 238,000 to 150,000. Forty percent of the state-owned enterprises have disappeared from our field of vision, including many names that we used to be familiar with. Correspondingly, these disappearing state-owned enterprises did not simply die, but successfully transformed into private enterprises through this movement of "retirement from the state and advancement of the people". According to the survey, more than 25% of the Private enterprises are reformed from state-owned and collective enterprises. When the flexible private capital began to enter the international market, its flexible and dynamic characteristics were revealed in a short period of time. The slogan of working for the world and being the world's factory was chanted at this time. In fact, the "Made in China" story that started in 1998 began to take off in 2002, and every action reflected a An unprecedented magical light. From a series of data, we can see the outline of the myth. According to preliminary statistics, among the 650 types of commodities that can be checked, the output of hundreds of products in our country has ranked first in the world. This is not only for us. Brought the title of the world's fourth largest producer, and contributed nearly 40% to GDP growth. What is even more glorious to the Chinese people is that a group of well-known private enterprises have taken advantage of this to rise, and they have the momentum of becoming princes along the way. . It seems that the "private-funded guerrillas" using manufacturing as a means have gained a firm foothold after entering the customs, gradually adapting to the new rules, and showing a vibrant appearance. Is it really so beautiful? Are we really adapting to the rules and operating at every step in the global economy, so that the borders are divided? I'm afraid the real situation may not be the case, at least the problems revealed in our 2008 economic crisis are enough to prove that our understanding of the rules is still at a rather superficial level. When we feel that we have adapted to the rules of the game in the international market, and even can use them skillfully, we feel that we have a plan.When we are satisfied with the reputation of the world's factory, when we are excited about stepping into the industrial society, it actually marks that we are getting deeper and deeper into the trap of rules. Under the so-called rules, the Chinese economy is suffering from the bad luck of being "insulted and damaged". The so-called world factory, to put it bluntly, is actually a very derogatory term. If we have a little understanding of the process of modern industry, it is enough to know the six aspects of product design, raw material procurement, manufacturing, customer confirmation, brand building, and terminal channels. Among the major links, the one with the lowest value and the worst benefit is the production link. We have worked the hardest, endured the greatest pressure, consumed our resources, and polluted our environment, but received the least benefits. Judging from this situation, when our private capital is in the international market The more "beautiful" we are, it means that we suffer more losses. At the same time, behind our reputation as "the world's factory", there is a hidden danger of serious overproduction of consumer goods. Among the 650 categories of commodities that have been monitored nationwide, 620 categories of commodities have experienced a situation in the production process, but the income of the people in our country has not been improved in time; We must rely on foreign markets, and this has led to our economy relying heavily on consumption in the international market. When we have excess production capacity, foreign markets show excess consumption. When these two "excess" situations meet each other, a seemingly balanced situation is formed. However, this balance is at the expense of environment, wasting resources, and paying a price that is seriously inconsistent with benefits.Therefore, when the international economy is in turmoil, China's real economy will suffer the most serious damage, which becomes the proper meaning of the question. When we think we have adapted to the rules, we have actually become victims of the rules. Such a situation can be understood very easily if we still have memories of our childhood games. In children's mischievous games, the older child is always the rule-maker, what we call the "idea-maker", while the relatively honest and younger child is always the rule-executor. , the executor of the actual activity. Children do things, and older children sit back and enjoy the benefits. I will learn from it, and you will take the blame. This is actually the true meaning of the rules. In essence, the rules of the game are a process in which those who obey and those who obey are damaged. According to many experts and scholars, rules are not to be followed, but to be applied.What we want to say, however, is that the real winner will never be a rule-applier, but a rule-maker. It is because of the blind obedience to the existing rules and the thoughtful use of the existing rules that our economy suffers insults and damages, while the real beneficiaries are talking about "China's economic threat" while enjoying the benefits. The benefits brought by "Made in China" will bring benefits into the bag while passing on the crisis. In the game with these rule makers who "get cheap and sell well", we show our credulity and immaturity ignorantly, showing a sad and helpless scene. Perhaps 10 years ago, the saying of "applying rules" was still beneficial to us, but looking at 2020, this saying has long been outdated, and it must be replaced by a brand-new value concept. Perhaps when 2020 comes, the whole world will consider China from a new perspective. However, perhaps only we who are in it will understand that in this game with rules as the core, the difficulties we have experienced, Pain, and hesitation.